• DECLASSIFIED Authority Nt'1 D7 • • • • • •u ZCiPLa SYS529 o 3 b SECF ET • • 1t J r 1 k iJ UE LZ 2125 C l 0812049 SSSSS ZZtl R 21G 2 l MAR 0 FI A MBASSY lRASILIA Tv Ru HC ECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6099 L4FO RU1SBA AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3152 LFHAU A EMBASSY VIENNA 0327 BT 1 CR ET BRASILIA e2125 11Y 2 '-1 A S0 TOR 0'956 er- 125e J CHARG IAEA INFO IAEA 5 AMB • DC 1 POL FIL E • y C uSI AJ A i v 12065 GDS 3 21 80 SAYRE 1 49 345 • • OR-M • Au PARM MNUC TECH uBJECT NON -PnOLIFERATION ASSESSMENT • R ll A STATE 68365 B 79 BRASILIA 10578 v 79 BRASIL IA 3737 • 1 S - i NTIRE TEtT • • • • • • • e • • • • • 2 THE CONSLUSION OF INFCE PROVIDES A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ASS SS OUR NON-PROLIFERATION POLICIES INFCE BY ITSELF IS UNLIKiLY TO BR ING ABOUT ANY RADICAL CHANGES IN NATIONAL NUCLEAR r- i - RGY POL IC IES--ALTHO UGH I 'r HAS ENHANCED A •ARFNESS OF PROL IF RATIO PROBLEMS AND MAY ALREADY BAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SO E TIGHTENIIIJG UP THE GOB FOREIGN MINISTRY EXPRESSED TO TJS ITS COMPLETE SATISFACTI ON--REL IEF MAY BE A · O1tE APPROPPIA TE DhSCRIPTION OUR NON - PROtIFERATLXN ASSESSMENT s qoULt CON ID R HOW MODIFICATIO S TO OuR NUCLE R EXPORT AND ON PROLIF RATION POLICIES WOULD ENABLE THE us T0 TA E AJVANTAGt O Itl BODY OF OWLED E AND APPARENT SPtRIT OF COOP RAJ I 01 D'1 VELOPED WITH I NF CE FOR THE LON G-- TERM Pl'PPCS ' OF OBTA INING CONC8SSIONS FROM NATIONS iHICH no NOT Nrw AGREE ITtl OUR NON- PROLIFbRATION POLICIES TO TPIS END I FAV A qED THE OUESTIONS POSED IN RiF A IN THE ORM OF ORPOSITIONS BASED MAINLY ON BRMZILIAN AND LATIN AMERICAN lX21R IENCE BUT ftDDRESSED MORE G NER LLY TO FACILITATF DD BATE SEE ALSO REFS BAND C FOR BAC·-GROUND ON GOB iUCLlAR PROGRAM AND ATTITUDtS TO US NON- P OLIFERATION PuLlCI J S ' IR ST JATIONAL DECISIONS TO DEVELO t' A DiLIVERABLE NUCL Ar E PON SYSTEM ARF TA EN AT TffF HIGtlEST GOVERNM N1AL LEVEL BASED ON PROFOUND CONSIDERATION OF VITAL nATIONaL SECUITY I NTtR1STS AND OF TtlE LONG- TERNESTRA T GIC SITUATPTJ SUGH jECISIO S 10ULD NOT FE DEFFPRit BY COMMITML T I• NUCLFA COOPEPATION AGREEMENTS SI NCE Th MEAN TO IEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS TLCHNOLOGY ARE Ir I TH i T CHNICAL CA PABILITl OY iODE lATELY ADVA CED A£ION E G BBAZIL K SCUTh AlRICA I SRAEL ARGENTINA PROLIF R l'IO D COM S FArl MORE A BROAD POtICY DECISION 'IHAJ A TlCRNOLOGICAL CPPORTUNITY OUR OVERALL POLITICAL co OMIC ND ILITARY POLICitS V BY S1APINJ THE STRATFG I C 1-ohMNt AND 6ST LISHING D 0 ENDABLE AND PRED I VUABLE COC t1 k l 'l' IV C JRIGF ARRA 'IG 1E NTS ARE ORE IMPORTANT 'IO S E C E T BRAS I LIA 2125 • • • • • --·• a • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • S F BRASILIA 2125 C R E 'I P OLIF RATIO PRO YLEM THAN US NO N-PROLIFERATIO Po rcr s E E1v s w S vo -tD A NEAR-COf OLLARY US 0 - PROL I ERA ION P0L GI ES VF NI ETHER nvt CED NOR TARDED NONFROLIFER ION 0 J CTIV• 0 ' TH ONE HAND WE HAVE SUC C EDEL I N ZCI •r N I'IONA LFADFRS FULLY A l RE l' f Tti P OFJFM P RTIY I N RFSPONSr TO USG PRESSURE THROUGP v I MLY TO PR SERVE TH'F ACCORD ITH fl 'ST GFRMANY Tn GO HAS SCRUPULCUSLY RID ITS PEACEFUL NUCLEAR F 01 rR 11 OF A1HTqING T -lAT COPLD BE TAICFN AS IMPLYING UCL R EAPONS A BITIONS TEE GOB H AS JVST AS SCRUPU OuSLY EXCLU1ED SE SITIVE MATERIAL flND TEC NOLOGY FROM 1rt SCOPE OF BILATERAL NUCLEAR COOPERATITU AGPFE ENTS L vENTLY CONCLUDED OR UNDEJ NEGOIATIONS 0 THE OTHER LA D uu UNISTLijAL DECISIONS YO IMPOSE NEij RULES FOR UCL£AR COO ERATION UNDERCUT ESTABLISHED INSTITUTIONS SJ Cli AS l'H Z NPT IAEA AND 'I'HE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GUIDlLI _s NEVZP ThELESS TRZSE INS TITUOH APPEAR TO BF ALIV u ArJ WELL LlRGELY OWING ro THEIR OWN F'UNDi tENTAL STR uTHCK Tn CuLLSNTIVPSAwAGNESS OF LIL f'1 MBER NATio · I1 AVOID A u lF 1' AT I G ORLt IN HRTIN • BY DRIVI NG Po NTIAL usTOMERS TO TqIRDACOUNTRY SUPPLIERS OUR 1JvL 1' liR l iXPORT POLICIES HAVE LESSENED USG INFLUENCi THROUGH iu R SUPP IE- NATIONS ARE APPLY INV SA FEGUARDS OT ' XPOYS CuT 'IuIRD t-1A AGlMENT OF US NON-PLLIF1FATION POLH ES Al C U C L JJ UPPLY AFRANC'Et ENTS OVER TH 3 AST D t CArZ HAV- OT HELPED OVEijALL US I TERNATIO AL RELATIONS • OUR OPPOSITION SI C 1974 0 THE BRAZILIAN D T R I A10 to OBTAI NUCLEAF FUEL CICLE TEC1NOLOGY ANC HF AITb PT TO DISSUADE EST GERMANY IN 19 7 GONTRIBU'I D TO A SLFIOJS ETiRIORATION IN THE HIL TIRAL R LATIO 'S HI P AND rvc LERATED AN EXIS1ING GOB TENDENCY TO DIVVhSIFY 1B PATION'S INT RNATIONAL INTLRACTIONS A ' Y rQQ Tq u O Aav uRCPE AND TBE DLVELOPING ORLD AS RFSULT T GO PERC IVES THE US AS NIEfHER A RELIABLE NLCLFAR UPPLI-R tOR EVEN A FFLI PLF PARTNER IN E ER T ANt S I NC --1BROUGH THIS PERCEPTION IS MELLO ING BRAZIL AS LL AS UTtl R NATIONS CONSID1R US NUCLEAR E1PORT POLICILS S U ILATEiAL DLCISIC S NOT TO vAINTAIN FULL INT RNATIONAL COMMITMENTS TPIS COINCI YS ITH I CREASING SCRUTli Y AND OUESTIONING OF US COMr--IT Jc'NTS IN OTH l'R A EAS SIMILAhLY DEVELOPI r ATIONS PARTICULARLY TS lLJLLb TIER CO SIDER rIAT CCNTROLS ON THE TRA SFER TSOPH LSTICAT D TECFNo o y NOT ONLY DISCRI NATE i GAINST lBLM BUTT LSO TY E'E h Aif ED AT RESTRAINING THEIR t 0 OMIC DEVEI OP 1ENT J 4D f ODE RN IZATION • • • • • • • • • • • • g SECR t T BRASILIA 2125 DECLASSIFIED Authority NND7 9 3o Q • • • l • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • e • • • t 2 S E R F T FRAS I LIP 212 i OU T US ON-PROLIF•R TION POLICI S SEEM TOO LI S I P ID MfC A I 'l IC IT f iOUT ADEQUATE LEXIh I TY TO ADDR SS SPFCIFIC NPTIONAL AND qE IO NAL PPORTU ITI S ITHOUT THF FLEXIBIL Tf TO AC I1VE TE E 'AX IMPM F ASI t SL ' I N POLITICAL TEnMS E MAY END UP I VI N FAR L SS FOR XAMPLE THE LABORIOUSLY f GOT I Ty1 TREATY OF TLPTELOLCO PROEABtY REPRESE TS AS FAR AS JrtAZIL A D ARG NTINA AQE I LL I NG TO GO ' hb TRl Tt'S LAJG-UAGE BIL ADEQUATE FOR US NEEDS GED XISTIN IAEA TRILATERAL SAFEG ARD5 AND I OULD OVIDE OOD BASIS FOR OBTAINING CONCESSIONS sucq AF G A1DS ON AIL NUCLEAR cTIVITI S IT T us S E S CF DOUBTFUL UTILITY TO qAVE FORMULATED IAEA TLAT LOLCO-TYPE SAFEGUARDS TRAT EXCEED RAT THE TqEATY IRS A1 D HENCi •HAT ERAZ I L AND AR1ENTINA AFE I LLING C ACC6PT SirILARLY OUR RE E ED OPPOSITI ON TO THE EST A V- BBAZL JUCLEAR COOPERAT ION I N 1977 CAME TOO LATE FCR ITE •R SI DE TO RE TERSE C0'1MITMENTS AND SUCCFFD-rD y IN N 'PG-ON I ZING Tr M IND ED TH E PRESENT PROG RA ITH I TS CO - Cid T tAT I or 0 MAS S I VE CENT RA1 I ZED TECFNOLvG I S AY El ORE PROLIWERATION-SAFE l N THE ALTERNATIVE STILL SPOUSED hY T1 UCLBAR PROGRA ' S SCIE TIFIC CRI1 IC S T AT IS TR DISP RSED A D GJADliAL DEVELOPMENT c A n OAD DO iSTIC RESEAR CV DEVELOPMENT AND DEMO STRATION P ttO-zRAt It-'EJ T A•J INDEPENDlN' ' FRA ZILIAN I DUS TRIAL CAPABILI 1Y ITHOUT UARANTEES OF SAF IGUARDS • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 Fir1H TL ac SEE $ N IN PPROPRIATE B01Y TO HAVE L FINAL O D C NUCL AR XPORTS HE CE ON A 'EY SP CT OF OUR JON-PROLIFTRATION POLICY bEING A 1 G 'IC' AGE CY 11 IT HOUT I TER lAT IONAL EXPI RTI SF T E Jh v 510D D RES RICTFD TO DECISIONS ITRIN ITS o P L tCL UC PS JUCLEA S WETY AND SECURITY 1 E e's RCL ov RRirI G TrlE GOTIATING PROCISS IS AN ur FCF$s R vOMPLICAiIO I AN1 ON u T'fAT IS RESENTED Y THF O-lj c c - 'F T-E DELATAPLF VALUE OF AGREEME TS EEAC LC I H bXE UT IV E LnANCH NEGOT I TO S TH E POSSIBILITY n f THtY CA BE REJEC ED GAUS $ DELAYS AND EXPENSE OR BRAZT1 • LASTLY TH US UCL AR EXPORT AND NO - PROLIFERATION POLIC I S R Vb OV - i ST I AT1L OJR MEANS TO INFLUE CE QT l1R A-IO S E AiOPTED A POLI l UL1IMATELY BASED 0' DE IAL p CIS LY iHE us SuPPLI ERS OF NUCLE RPO ER rE CTORS AD FUEL WER LOS ING TEE oMPETITIVF E G1 TC CA ADIA inE vH EHMAN AND SOVIET SPPPLIERS I N LAT I N AMERICA E AZIL AJ1 ARGENTINA HAVi TuRNED C THIHD- COU TRY UPPLI RS AND DEP ND ON T F US ONLY FOR FUEL OR R SEARCH REACTORS I N SL 7 I NG ADDITIONAI CONDITIONS O act AR EXP0 1 E ft i 1HUS IN A POSITION OF AL1 • J CKS AND NO CA RROTS 10 CON LUD I FAVOR THE ST-ICTEST POL I CIE 0 • R EXPORTS AND NO - PROLIFERATION THAT OULD ACH I EVE MA1IMUM FEA IBLE • ucc ss owrVEFBM OUR PRESE 'T uLICIES lND PROCF DURFS O NOT SEE1 TO BE ACBIEVIN Td ' iH RE IS '00 UCH DI SPA ITY I THE WORLD SYSTEr-' 0 UCL R POLICIES 10 LEGISLATE A SINGLE SET OF RULFS l e • • NU L J 2 2 S C R E T --DECLASSIFIED BRA s Authority NND7 °I 3 • • • • • • • • • • • _ 2 S E C R F T • • • BRASILIA 2125 E cc NT ASSESS ENT cru1n STREN TPEN ouq NON ROLIF RiTION POLICI S BY CONSOLI DATING GAI S MADE TEUS A AD LEVELr I G FLE I LF EU1 CONSIST1NT GUIDFLINFS OR POLICY IMPLEM NmATION IN THE FUTURE SAYRE SECRET 212 RA SltIA 2125 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • - DECLASSJFiEo Authority NND7 9 3 Q • • • • • • • •