E1 UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDBNTTAI PAGA 01 ACTTON EI'R-01 MOSCOW 06024 01 0F 02 INFO LOG-OO NP-OO AID-OO LOLTLLZ CIAE-OO SMEC-OO DS-OO EBIE-OO vc-01 MR-00 r AB-01 t-00 Mco-01 MOFM-04 AC-01 NRRC-oo NS aE-oo NSCE-oo oMB-01 PM-00 PRS-00 AqE-00 P-00 scr-oo sso-00 TRSE-oo usrB-oo sA-o1 IIP-OO DOEE-OO SRPP-OO PMB-00 DSCC-oo PRM-01 DRt-02 sAs-00 loztw F A EMBASSY c-00 --3DA6c6 o 1016562 ltAR oo RELEASED IN PART 86 Bl 1 4 B 1 4 D P1p4865 INL-o1 H-01 rEDE-OO MOF-03 M-00 oPrc-01 PA-OO sP-00 sNIS-00 FDIC-01 Nrsc-00 LOLTLLZ 38 t'tOSCOtr TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATts 9065 INFO MOSCOW POTITICAI COLTECTI ZE CIS COLI ECTI ZE c oNFI DENTI At SEqrrON 01 0F 02 HELSINKI PI BASE PASS TO SI MOSCOIS 006024 PETERSBI'RG E o 12958 DECL 3 LOlLO TAGS PGOV RS SttBitECT RUSSIA'S PRESIDENIIAT ELECIION -- BALAIICfNG INTRIGT'E AND EF AR DURING THE CAIIPAIGN'S IAST TWO IIEEKS REF MOSCOII 5533 CLASSIFIED BY EDWARD SALAZAR CHIEF INTSRNA CONFIDENTIAI PAGE 02 MOSCOW 06024 01 0F 02 POLITICAI AFFAIRS REjASONS 1 5 B D LOLTLLZ SUMIIARY 1 C T' lfo WEEKS BEFORE THE l tARCH 26 ELECIION PUTIII'S FIRST-ROUND VICTORY PRESTDENTIA APPEARS INCRP ASINGTY LIKELY POLLSTERS NOW SEEM I'NA IIMOUS IN THEIR E PECTATION THAT MORE TIIA I 50 PERCENT OF VOTERS IILL COME TO THE pOtLS ENSURING THE BLEqIION'S VAIIDITY I HILE ON THE SURFACB THE CN PAIGN APPEARS CALI IF NOT SOMNOLENT VARTOUS INTRIGUES INCLUDTNG T IE FUNDING OF MINOR CA IDIDATES BY THE KREMLIN OR THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW ATTTHORITY FRANK H PEREZ CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON 1 4@ 1 4 D DECLASSIFY AFTER 9 MAR 2015 DATE CASE ID 04 SEP 2007 20070a380 DODE-OO UNCLASSIFIED IRM-OO NFAT-OO TINCLASSIFIED KPRF ARE ACTIVE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR OWN FUTURES IN A PUTrN PRESIDENCy MAI Y REGIONA TBADBRS MAy TRtp O ER THEIIISEL IES TO DELI ZER THE VOTES Al D PLE B SE THE KREMLTN HO T T BLL 'AGAINST AIL MAY FAIR REI ATNS A I oPEN QUESTION THE NUMBER OF VOTERS WHO STrLL ARE ITNDECIDED AT THIS STAGE OF THE CAIr pAIG r IS REIATI ELY HIGH BtIf IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT TI E E IENTIAL OUTCOME OF THE EI ECTION END SI'MMARY ON CRUISE CONIN OL 2 C A LITTLE I ORE TIIA I TWO I BEKS REMAIN UNTIL RUSSIA'S PRESIDENTIAI ELECTIONS ON IARCH 26 A ID THE GENSRAL IAY OF TIIB I A ID ITAS NOT CIIA IGED SIGNIFICENTIY PUTIN STILL APPE JARS TO BE ON TRACK TOWARD VICTORY CONFIDENTIAI PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06024 01 0F 02 LOLTLLZ WITH MOST OBSER IERS A ID POLLSTERS AIIKE CATLING HIS FIRST ROI'IID IN '' 'ERY tIKELY '' THEY AI SO BELIE ZE TIIAT VOTER TURNOUT WILL BE HIGHER T IAN THE 50 PERCENT TT RNOUI' IIEEDED FOR THE ELECITON TO BE VAIID AI ID COITLD BE AS HIGH AS 6O-PLUS PERCENT EVEN POLLSTER ROUITD PROBABLB NOW BEtrE rES pUTrN WrLL WrN ON MARCH 26 PUTIN'S POLL RATINGS HA IE I E ZELED-OFF BUT HE REr'IATNS ltAy AIIEAD OF HIS CTOSEST RrVAt KPRF LBADER GENNADIY ZYT'GA IOV VARTOUS POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR 49-59 PERCENT TOLD US TH ET PUTIN CONSISTENTLY HTGH AMONG AI L DEMOGR APHIC GROUPS WITH THB ONLY VARTATION BEING OI DER VOTERS WHO ST'PPORT TIIE COMI UNIST CA IDIDATE 3 C MEAI II HILE THE ACTING PRESIDENT HAS CONTINTED HIS NEARLY NON-STOP TRA TEL SCHEDULE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF RUSSTA OSTENSIBLY ON PRESIDEI ITTAI BUSINESS IIEVERTHELESS E ZERY STOP PRESENTS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PTIUN TO MEBT WITI KEY CONSTITUENCIES A ID TO At E PROMISES IN ESSENCE TO CAMPAIGN CAI PAfGNING IN THE ELEqTRONIC MEDIA HAS BEEN AI LOWED STNCE T 'ARCH 3 INCLUDING A SERIES OF CA IDIDATE DEBATBS ON THB NATIONAL PUBLIC TELEVISION STATIONS SO FAR THESE LIKE MOST OF THE REST OF THE CAI PAIGN HA E BEEN I ACKLUSTER THE ONE CA IDIDATE IIHOM EVERYONE WOULD LIKE TO HE AR FROM THE FRONTRI'NNER IIAS DECLINED TO PARTICTPATE IN FACT pIIfrN HAS ESCHEI ED NOT ONLY UNCLASSIFIED B6 UNCLASSIFIED DEBATES BUT AD ZERTTSING AS I ELL PUTIN TOLD THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 MOSCOW 06024 01 0F 02 LOL ttz PRESS THAT ADVERTISING AND HIS PARTICIPATION IN DEBATES itsRE NOT NECESSARY '' HE'S RIGHT SINCE HIS ACTTVITIES RECEI IE WIDE COVERAGE DAILY IN THE PRINI AI D BLECTRONIC MEDTA RUNNING ON FF AR 4 -- THE OPPONENTS C I HILE THE PUBLIC CA 'PAIGN IIAS I ACKED BOTH susPENsE AllD SPARKLE Ir IS NOT WITHOUT S IARE BEHIND-THE-SCSNES INTRIGUES OF' BI 86 CONFIDENTTAI CoNFTDBNTTAL PTg4866 PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-01 MOSCOW 06024 02 0E 02 LOLTLLZ INFO LOG-OO NP-OO AID-OO CIAB-OO SMEC-00 DOEE-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO EBIE-OO vc-01 rNR-OO r AB-01 L-00 MCO-01 MOFI' -04 AC-01 NRRC-oo NSAA-oo NSCE-oo oMB-o1 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-OO scT-00 sso-00 rRsE-oo usrB-oo sA-o1 IIP-OO PMB-OO DSCC-OO PRM-01 DRL O2 c-00 sAs-00 INL-01 DODE-OO H-01 TEDE-OO M-OO PA-OO MOF-03 oPrc-01 sP-00 sNIS-00 FDIC-01 lo2Lw o 1016562 ldAR OO --3DA6D9 LOLTL2Z 38 FIt AMEMBASSY MOSCO9I TO SECSTATE IIASTIDC IMMEDTATE 9066 IINCLASSIFIED IRM-OO Nrsc-00 NFAT OO rNFO MOS@I POLITICAI @T EETXVE UNCLASSIFIED crs couactrrrB c o N p r D E N I r A L SEc rrON 02 0F 02 MOSCm IIBLSINI I PTEASB PASS TO ST B o 12958 DBCL 3lLOlLO TAGS PGOV RS sItBilBCT Russre 's STRIKIIIG PBTERSBURG PRBSTDENTT AL TNTRIGIIE AND EEAR DIrRrNc A BAIAI CE - 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