E3 UNCLASSIFIED CoNFTDENTIA 06626 01 0F 04 PT93262 PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-01 MOSCOW INFO NP-00 ArD-00 ACQ-00 CrAE-oo SMEC-OO DODE-00 DOEB-00 DO1E-00 SRpp-o0 DS-00 EBIE-OO VC-01 H-01 TEDE-OO INR-OO MCO-01 MOI '-o4 MOF-03 M-00 AC-01 NSCE-oo 0MB-01 0prc-01 pA-00 pM-00 P-00 sP-00 TRSB-oo USrE-oo SA-01 NISC-oo pMB-00 DSCC-oo pRM-01 DRt-02 LOG-00 DINT-OO FAAE-OO L-00 NSAE-OO ACE-00 sNIS-00 FDIC-01 P 2003402 2003s9z 1 33--lT-13---llll 33 ' 3X INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLI ECTIVE B C O N F I D E N T T A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HELSINKI PI ASE PASS TO ST MOSCOW l 006526 PETERSBI'RG E O 12958 DECL 3 L7lLO TAGS PGOV PINR RS StBitECT RUSSIAII PRBSTDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO @ UNTIL THB REEEREISDINd ON PTITIN -- ONB I EEK CLASSIFIED BY GEORGE KROL MINISTER-COUNSELOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS REASONS 1 5 B D FOR CONFTDENTIAL MOSCOW 06626 01 0F 04 2003592 SUM IARY 1 PRS-OO IIP-OO G-00 RELEASED IN PART COLI ECTIVE PAGE 02 I AB-01 NRRC-OO 38 MAR 00 FD AMEMBASSY IdOSCOVT TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9520 CIS INL-o1 EB-OO C RUSSIA'S PRESIDENTIAS ELBCTIONS ARE IN A REEEREIIDLM ON ACTING PRESTDENT IADIMIR ESSENCE PUTTN toST OF THE VOTES CAST COI'LD BE CIIARACTERIZBD AS VOTES EITIIER FOR OR AGAINST THB INCT'MBENT VOTERS ILL REGISIER THEIR DISPLE ASURE WITH PUTI I OR THE IACT OF A I AIITRNATIVE EITHSR BY STAYING HOME ON VOTING DAY BY VOTING AGAINST ALL OR By SttppORTING ONE OF HIS MAIN RIVALS -- KPRF LP ADER ZYUGA IOV OR ''YABLOKO'' I E ADER YA TLINSKIY THE RESI'T TS OF THE ''REFBRSIIDUM ARE IMPORT AI T BECAUSE AS SRESIDENTIAT ADMINISTR a TION TJNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY FRANKH PEREZ CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON r 4 D DECLASSIFY AFTER 19 MAR 2015 DATE CASE ID 05 SEP 2007 200702380 UNCLASSIFIED 1 4 D 86 UNCLASSIFIED OFFICIAIS BXPIAIN PUTIN NEEDS A STRONG SHOWING ON T'TARCH 26 IN ORDER TO ENSURE HIS IEGITILTACY AND TO GI IE HTM A EREER I AI D IN TMPTEMENTING POIICY DESPITE A RECENT SLIPPAGE IN SUPPORT FOR PUTTN ACCORDING TO soME POLLS IIE APPEARS STITL ON TRACK FOR A FIRST ROUIID VIgTORY EIID SUMT'TARY NO WORRIES C PUrIN'S 4AIN OPPONENTS IN THIS RACE ARE NO4I Al tY oF THE OTHER CANDTDATES TNSTF AD THEY ARE A POTS ITIAI tY LOW VOTER TURNOUT A TD A POTENTTAILY HIGH 2 I BI 86 PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06626 01 0F 04 200359z TOLD POLOFF ON IIARCH 14 THAT WHILE IT IS LTKELY THAT PUTIN WILL WIN IN THE FIRST ROUI D THAT IS NOT ENOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HTM TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HB HA s THE CONFIDENCE OF THE POPT'LATION NOTE SOME RECENT POLIS SHOIII ST'PPORT EROM PUTIN HAS STIPPED TO 53 PERCENT OF THE VOTE OTHERS STILL SHOW HIM WITH O IER 60 PERCENT SI'PPORT E D NOTE HE FE ARED THAT VOTERS WOI'LD BE APATHETIC THE REST'LT AS PRE-DETERMINED FOR THAT REASON THE KREMLIN IS PUSHING IIARD TO ENCOI'RAGE PEOPLE TO GO TO THE POLLS SAID TIIE ''AGAINST AI L'' VOTE WAS DA TGEROUS IT CA I BE INTERPRETED A S NOT AGAINST A CERTAIN PERSON B Ir AGAINST THE GO TERNMENT 3 c INITIATIVE THE VOTE 'AGATNST AtrLI II FOR THE ''AGAINST ALL'' VOTE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TIIAT PUTTN WTLL FEEL SOME CONSTRAINTS ON HIS POST-EIECTION ACTIONS CONCEDING THAT PTIIIN PROBABLY WIIL SCORE A FIRST ROUND VICTORY ULD HA ZE PREFtsRRED TTTAT YE1TSIN NOT RESIGNBD AILO IING IIREAtrtr EI ECTIONS TO TAICE PI ACE IN BELIEVED 'ruNE TF ''AGAINST INITIATIVE WOI'LD BE VIqTORIOUS GARNERS 4 PERCENT OR MORE OF THE VOTE I ELECTORAI STAIE OF PI AY UNCLASSIFIED 4 c ESTIT AIED THAT ONLY CONFIDENTIAI I 'NCLASSIFIED 5-6 PERCENT OF THB PAGE 04 MOSCOW 06626 01 0F 04 2003592 VOTE IS T'P FOR GRABS END THS RE AI STRUGGLE IS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE BLECTORATE IIE PREDICTED THAT THOSE VOTES WOULD BE SPLIT BETWEEN PUTIN ZnrcAllov YA ILINSKIY AlrD AGATNST ALL BBTI tsEN NOW AltD THE ELEqIION pUTIlr WOTTLD CONTINUE TO TRA EL TO VARIOUS REGIONS AS PART OF HIS CAII PAIGN DISAPPOINTT ENT THAT THE PUTIN TO PAY FOR PI'BIICATION OF THE BOOK OF PUIIN TNTERVIEWS WITH KO 4'tERSellT IOURI ALISTS EROM THE CA 4PAfGN E UND THB CAI PAIGI IIAD DECIDED NOT TO PAY FOR AD IERTISING A ID TIAD HOPED THAT THE BOOK WOULD NOT BE VIBWED AS ''AGITATION '' s c SAID THAT TWO ISSUES FROM THE BEGINNING HAVE LOOMED AS POTENTLAI TRJAPS FOR CA IDTDATE PTXTIN - CHECHNYA A ID T AGES PENSIONS HB SATD THE KREMLIN VIEWS NEGATIVE MEDIA CO IERAGE OF CHECHNYA AS CHECHEN CONFLICT IS MUCH LESS CRTTICAI AIID IN THE 1994-96 WAR END NOTE COMPREHENSI IE THA I SAID PICKETING AT THE I HITE HOUSB BY DOCTORS TEACHERS AIID OTIIBR pt BLIC SECTOR WORKERS ltHO HAD NOT BEBN PAID SET OFF AIARM BELLS IN THE KREMLIN TIIA IKFULLY DEPTNY PRTME MINISTER MAN'IYSNKO IIAD BEEN CONFIDENTIAI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION ET'R-OI MOSCOW INFO LOG-00 Np-00 06626 02 0F 04 PTQ3263 2004002 ArD-00 ACQ-00 CrAE-oo SMEC-oo DINT-OO DODE-OO DOEE-OO DOTE-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO FAAE-OO FBIE-OO VC-01 H-01 rEDB-OO INR-OO L-00 Mco-01 MoFM-o4 MOF-03 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-oo NSCE-oo 0MB-01 0prc-01 pA-00 pM-00 ACE-00 p-00 sp-00 TRSE-oo uslE-oo sA-01 sNrs-oo Nrsc-oo pMB-00 Dscc-oo pRM-o1 DRr-02 FDrC-01 NFAT-oo SAS-00 SWCr-oo lOzLW p 2003402 MAR OO --40EDE4 2004002 38 FM AI4BMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASIIDC PRTORITY 952L LINCLASSIFIED INL-01 EB-OO I AB-01 NRRC-OO PRS-00 IIP-OO e-00 INFO MOSCOW POLITICAI COLLECTI IE UNCLASSIFIED CIS COLLECTI IE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HELSINKI PLEASE PASS TO ST MOSCO$I 006626 PETERSBURG E o 12958 DECLz 3 L7lLo TAGS PGOV PINR RS SIBJECT RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELBCTfONS TO @ T'NTIL THE RBEEREIIDT'M ON PUTIN -- ONE EEK ABI 8 TO ASSUAGE THE PROTEST A ID SKILLFT'LLY DIEFI'SE ISST'E WITH OTHER GROUPS TITE CONFIDENTTAI MOSCOW 06626 02 0F 04 20 UP THB OTHER CA IDIDATES SAID THAT ZN'GA IOV WOUI D RECEI ZE LBSS DID IN 1996 BOTII FOR DEMOGRAPHIC REASONS A ID FOR THB KPRF FACTION'S IACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE IN THB DU A ECHOING vllIAT ItE HA B HB ARD FROM OTHBR QUARTERS OFSERED THAT ZYUGA IOV'S POSITION IN THE BE oN THB tINE HE r AS QUITE COMPLIMENTARY HOI B ZER OF KEMEROVO GOVERNOR TT'I EEV SAID TIULEY EV A FORMER MTNTSTER IS WORTHY TO PRESIDENT AT D GIVEN HIS WORK DIFFUSING THB PROj ESTS OF MINERS IN HIS REGION AND OTHER DTSGRUNTLED GROUPS COttLD REPIACE MAT IIYENKO AS DEPINY PRIME MINISTER Y WAS DISMTSSIVE OF PAGE 02 6 C SIZING 'S SUPPORT AS LOW AS POSSIBI E -- TWO PERCENT POSSIBT E BUT DEFINTTELY LOWER TI A I THE 6 PERCENT ''Y ABLOKO'' RECEI IED IN THE DI'T''A ELBCTION IF SPS 'OTECHESI 7O'' ENDORSE PTITIN 7 c REI ATIONS BE rWEEN MOSCOTY AIID THE KREMLIN TOUI D RETURN TO NORltlAt AFTER THE ELECTION ON LIARCH 13 I AYOR LUZHKOV AIID ''OTECHESTVO'' TOOK A STEP THAT WOUI D HELP 'AICE THAT HAPPEN BY FORI ALI Y ENDORSING PTXTIN' S CAI IDIDACY SOYUZ PRAVYKII SIL SPS AIID THE SPS DUMA CONFIDENTIAL LINCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06626 02 0F 04 2004002 FACTION ON I'TARCH 1 4 ADE A SIMII AR DECISION BUT WAS MORE DIVISI ZE IT TO BACK PUTIN AIID EALF THE INE tIBERiAt PARTTES OPPOSED SAID SPS I EADERS ARE TORN ON THB ISST'E AI D IT COT'LD I EAD TO A SPLIT IN THE BLOC KIRTYENKO ST'PPORTS PUTIN BECAUSE HE HOPES TO AECOME A MINISTER AFTER THE EIECTTON NEI'TTSOV A ID KHAI AI AD D ABSTAINED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTE AT ALL THAT THE DUT'TA FACTION IS COMPOSED OF ''KIRIY NKO PEOPLE'' AT D TIIAT TS WHY THEY BACKED THE DECISION ON PTITIN 8 c SAID OF THE DISSIDENT SPS DEPTIIY SERGEY KOVAI EiV AIRE ADY ARE SUPPORTING YAVIINSKIY HB ADDED THAT MOST OF THE IRITERS AIID AqfORS ON THE KUI LY' TELEVISION PROGRAT' AI SO BACK YAVTINSKIY SOME I E ADBRS ROU D ATL MOSTLY QUIET ON THE MEDTA 9 FRONT U TN CONTRAST TO THE DUT''A CEI PAIGN THERE IN REI ATIONS TO THE ARE FEW MEDIA IIIACIIINATIONS PRESIDENTIAI ELECTION OBSERVERS ARGT'E TITAT THERE IS CONFIDENTIAJ PAGE 04 MOSCOW 06626 02 0F 04 2004002 ''NO NEED'' FOR IT SINCE PTITIN SURELY WILL WIN THE KREMLIN-LINKED MEDTA APPEAR TO BE MORE E ZEN-HA IDED WITH COVERAGE SINCE OTHER CANDIDATES DO NOT POSE A THREAT IN PRACTICE HOr E IER PUTIN GARI IERS THE 4 'ORITY OF AIRTIME AS HIS OFFICTAI DUTIES ARE covERED AlitD HE ttAS GI 'EN EXTENSI E INTEnX rEWS TO STAIE-RIIN TBLEVISION WHICH IS THB IIAIN FORM OF NEWS POR MOST RUSSIN S INDEED ON t'tARCH 24 STATECONTROLIED RTR WILL SHOIV A DOCI'MENTARY ABOUT THE ''UNKNO IN P ITIN'' FE ATI 'RING INTERVIBWS WITH ERISNDS FAIIIIIY A ID FORMER COLI EAGT ES 10 u oNE EXCEPTION TO rfiIS QUrET STTUATTON rS Al T'NUSUAI STATEMENT RELAASED BY THE PIITIN CAI PAIG I LINCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED HBADQUARTERS ON MARCH 4 THE STAFF WAS DISPTEASED WITH SE@DNYA NEWSPAPER FOR ITS CRITICISM OF PIITIN'S CEIT'PAIGNING SUGGESTING HE BROKE BLECTION I AWS BY ISSUING PRESS RELE ASES BEFORE THE PERMITTtsD START OF CAI PAIGNING II ATSO AI LEGES HE IS USING HIS INCT'MBENCY TO PUSH AII AD OF OTHBR CA IDIDATES NOTE SBGODNYA IS OIINBD BY GUSINSKIY -- A KREMLIN RIVAI WHOSE N1 ' IS THE OST CRTTICAI OF CHECI NYA AIID PUTIN END NOrE TII8 STATEMENT FROM PTIIIN'S STAFF STATED THE ETEqTION HEADQUARIERS PRESS SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CAREFT'LLY IdONITOR AIL INSTA ICES OF LIES IN RESPECT TO TPUrrNI A ID RESER IES THE RIGHT TO USB E IERY MBA IS CONFTDENTIAT CoNFTDBNTTAL P1p3254 PAGE 01 ACTION BUR-01 MOSCOW rNFO LOc-00 Np-00 06626 03 0F 04 2004002 ArD-00 ACQ-00 CrAE-oo SMEC-oo DINT-OO DODE-OO DOBE-OO DOTE-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO FAAE-OO EBIE-OO VC-01 H-01 TEDE-OO INR-OO L-00 MCO-01 MOFM-o4 MOF-03 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-oo NSCE-oo 0MB-01 0prc-01 pA-00 pM-00 ACE-00 p-00 sp-00 TRSE-oo USrB-oo SA-01 SNIS-oo NISC-oo pMB-00 DSCC-oo pRM-o1 DRL-02 p FDIC-o1 NAAT-oo SAS-00 SWCr-oo lO2tW --40FDE9 2004002 38 2oo340z tAR oo FM A EMBASSY IIOSCO T TO SECSTATE WAS TDC PRIORITY 9522 INPO MOSCOT POLTTICAI COLLECTI ZE CIS COLLECTI IE c oNFI DENTI At SECTTON HELSINKI PLBASE PASS TO ST 03 0F 04 MOSCOVT 006626 PETERSBT'RG E o 12958 DBCLz 3 L7ltO TAGS PGOV PINR RS SUBJECT RUSSIAII PRESIDENTIAL ETECTIONS TO @ UNTIL THE REFEREIIDUM ON PTITIN AT ITS DISPOSAI FOR A I 'ASI' METRTC' -- ONE WEEK RESPONSB TO THE PROVOCATIONS CONFIDENTIAI PAGE 02 MOSCOW 06626 03 0F 04 200400z UNCLASSIFIED rNt-01 BB-OO I AB-01 NRRC-OO PRS-00 IIP-OO c-00 UNCLASSIFIED ''SEGODNYA'' 10 U1 EDITOR MIKTTAIL BBRGER SAID ON T'TARCH 6 THAT THE STATEMENT SOUNDED ''LIKE TI REATS ER OM BAI DITS SEGODNYA'S t'tARCH 7 ARTICLB ON TIIB STATEMENT ASKED ''WILL THE TA POLICE TURN T'P AT THE EDITORIAL OFFTCES OF NEWSPAPERS I HOM THE HBADQUARTERS SUSPECT OF 'ROSKING THE BOAT' HOW BLSB ARE E TO UNDBRSTAND THE TI RELT OF USING 'ASYAfMETRY' FROM A STRUCTURE THAT EFSECTIVETY HAS UNLIMITED ADMINISTRATI ZE RESOT'RCES AI THOUGH TOI D US THAT JOURNAI JOURNATISTS TH INKS OTHBR KIIIDS OF PRESSURE THE ADMINI BRING TO BEAR N Y SI IFT COVERAGE A ID THAT I ECK OF FINAIICIAT TNDBPEIIDENCE AD IERSELY AT'FECTS SREEDOM OF THE PRESS L2 U WrIAT BXAqrLy CONSTTTTXTES CAI pArcNrNc HAS CAUSED MUCH CONFIUSION AII ONG AT A RECENT SEMTNAR AIID THE 'OURNALISTS TO SNGAGE IN ANY SPBCIFICS ABOTII THE LAW Al lD RESERRED REPEATEDLY TO THE ELECTION CODE ADVTSING 'OURNAIISTS TO RF AD IT PARTTCIPAIITS REGTSTERED TIIEIR DISMAY WITH THIS A SWBR A ID TIIE CONFUSION WITH THB I AW 13 c ON THE VARIOUS ACTIONS BY THE CENTRAT EI ECTION COMMISSION AI D THE MEDTA MINISTRY A ID NOTED THAT THE TWO ORGANS DO NOT GET AIONG WEI L CONFIDBNTTAI PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06626 03 0F 04 200400z BECAUSE THE MEDIA MINISTRY BELIEi ZES TT SHOULD BE TIIE ONLY ONE AITOWED TO INTtsR ZENE IN THE MEDTA AS FOR THE I ACK OF ''BI ACK PR'' OR BIASED MEDIA IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAI PAIGN COMMENTS BY OTI ER AI AIYSTS IVHO THAT THIS INDICATES MORE A CIIA TGE DUB TO A SUDDEN EXPTOSION OF MEDIA ETHICS TI A I A REFLEqTION OF THE INEVITABILITY OF THE OTIICOME OF THE PRESIDENTTAI ELECTION HE ADDED THAT ONE CA INOT USE THESE METI ODS CONSTANTLY OR THBY ' HII E STOP BBING EFFECTT IE SUCH METHODS WOULD T'NDOUBSEDLY BE USED AGAIN IF NEEDED INKS THAT PTIIIN IS TOO PR AG IATIC TO PtIf IRECT PRESSTRE ON THE MEDrA AFTER Tt E EtEgtION ADDING THAT PUTIN NEBDS FOR THE MEDTA TO BE SEEN AS EREE AT ID HE NEEDS TO AVOID IRRITATING THE I EST LTNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED ELEqTION MONITORS t4 c As DURTNG TI E DIr 'tA ELEqTIONS RUSSIAN pARTy POLL WATCHERS Ar ID INTERNATIONAI OBSER IERS PLAII TO oBSBRVE THE PRESIDENTTA ELECTTON THE KPRF pER USUAT PI A iIS TO TIAVE POIL I ATCHERS AT AI L 93 OOO PRECINCTS IN RUSSIA OTHER CAI DIDATE REPRESENTATIVES ALSO WILL BE PRESSNT THE U S EMBASSY AITD CONSUIATES WILL FIEI D 60 OBSERVERS IN 19 SUBJEqTS OF THE FEDERATION THE OSCE WILt HA IE 3OO SHORT-TERM oBSBRVERS DOITN FROM THE 440 DURTNG THE Dt 'tA ELECTIONS ALTHOUGH MOST INTERNATIONAI OBSERVATION MISSIONS V ILL BE SD AILER THA IN DECEMBER lA Ty PIA I CONFIDENTTAT 04 MOSCOW 06626 03 0F 04 2004002 TO FOLLOW BATLOT PROTOCOLS EROM PRECINCTS TO THE TERRITORLAI EI BCTION COMMISSIONS HERE THE PROTOCOLS ARE ENTERED IlflTO THE COMPUTER AIIJGATIONS OF SRAUD IAST TIME CITARGED THAT THIS WAS THE POINT T HERE RESI'LTS ST'PPOSEDLY WERE TAMPERED 9TITH PAGE COMMENT 15 C DESPTTE TrrE DEB ATABTE DROP rN SnppORT FOR PtrrrN rT Is INLTKELY THE ET ECTTON WrLL @ A SECOIID ROUI D THOUGH rT t'tAy NOT BE A TREND IT DOES SUGGEST HOT EVER TttAT HAD THE ELECTTON BEEN HELD rN inNE IT IS POSSIBI E TI WOUTD HAVE BEEN ORE OF A HORSE RACE GO IERNING IS NOT EASY A ID IT IS IMPOSSIBI E TO PL ASE AI L PEOPI E AIL OF THE TIME TIIAT NBITHER PUTIN WAGE AND PENSTON PROBI EMS IN THE NE JAR TERM A T'IAI DATE AY BE NECESS ERY FOR PUTIN TO BE ABI E TO IMPLEMENT HrS PROGRAI WI ATtsVER THAT tAy BE REGARDLBSS OF A MAIIDATE AgrER A FEW MORE MONTHS OF vTRNIGLING WITH RUSSI A 'S MANY PROBLEIIS HIS APPROVAL RATING IS TIKBLY TO SLIP I'URTHER AS VOTER S BECOME MORE ACCI'STOMED TO SEEING PTITIN AT THE TOP OF THE FOOD CH A IN CONFIDENTIAI CONFIDENTTAI PAGE 01 MOSCOW 06626 04 0F 04 PTQ3265 2004002 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED ACTTON EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 DIN -OO FAAE-OO L-00 NSAE-OO ACE-00 sNrs-00 FDrC-01 NP-00 ArD-00 ACQ-00 CrAB-oo SMEC-OO INL-01 DODB-00 DOEE-oo Dorts-oo SRpp-o0 Ds-00 BB-OO EBIE-OO VC-01 H-01 TEDB-OO INR-OO I AB-01 MCO-01 MOEM-o4 MOF-03 M-00 AC-01 NRRC-OO NSCB-oo 0MB-01 0prc-01 pA-00 pM-00 PRS-00 P-00 sP-00 TRSB-oo USrB-oo SA-01 IIP-OO Nrsc-oo pMB-00 Ds@-00 pRM-01 DRL-02 c-00 i 9-- T ---ll3l 33 ' 33 X P 2003402 r AR 00 E AI EIGASSY ldOSCO t TO SECSTATts WASIIDC PRIORITY 9523 INFO MOSCOW POIJITICAI COLI'ECTIVE CIS COLLACTIVB c oNFr DENTr AL SEC rON HELSINKI PI EASB PASS TO ST 04 0F 04 MOSCO9T 006626 PETERSIBURG E o 12958 DBCL 3 L7lLO TAGS PGOV PIIIR RS SUBaIECT RUSSIAI PRESIDBNTIAL ELBCTIONS TO GO T'NTIL THE RBEEREIIDT'M ON PTXIIN -- ONE IIEEK COLLINS CONFIDENTIAIJ PAGE 02 MOSCOW 06626 04 0F 04 2004002 CONFIDENTIAI END OF DOCT'T ENT UNCLASSIFIED