E L4 UNCLASSIFIED CoNFIDENTTAT PAGE 01 ACTION EI'R-01 MOSCOW 07375 01 0F 03 INFO LOG-OO NP-OO AID-OO CIAE-OO RELEASED IN PART PTQ 650 2704202 SMEC-00 Bt rNt-01 DS-OO FBIE-OO vc-01 H-01 INR-00 r AB-01 L-00 MCO-01 MO 'I -04 MOF-03 AC-01 NRRC-oo NSAE-oo NSCE-oo oMB-01 oPrc-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 scT-00 sP-00 sso-00 TRSE-oo usrB-o0 sA-o1 sNrs-00 Nrsc-00 DSCC-oo PRM-01 DRt-02 G-00 FDIC-01 NFAT-OO As-00 sAs-00 lo2tw --468A81 oLt542Z 38 o 2 03562 tAR OO DOEE-OO SRPP-OO FI AITTBMBASSY MOSCOI TO SECSTATE WASTTDC IMMEDIATE OO52 INFO MOSCOW POLITICEI COTIECTI IE CIS COLI ECTIVE CONF I DENT I AL SECTTON 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 007375 E o 12958 DECL 3 24 LO TAGS PGOV RS SUBi ECT ON THE SVE OF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAI ELBCTTONS PTITIN CLEAR LEAD YA ZLINSKIY ST'RGE CLASSIFIED BY GBORGE KROI MINISTER-COI'NSELOR FOR POLITICAI AFFAIRS REASONS 1 5 B D SUMINRY CONPIDENTIAI PAGE 02 1 MOSCOW 07375 01 0F 03 C DESPITE SOME POILS SHOWING A 2704202 STE JADY DBCLINE IN ACTTNG PRESIDENT PTIIIN'S POPULARITY MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN IIOSCOW CONTINUE TO BETIE ZE ACTING PRESIDENT PUTIN WTLL I IN THE MOST VOTES SUNDAY A ID PROBABLY ACHIEVE TIIE PRESTDENCY OTITRTGI T WITH NO SECOND ROUIID NECESSARY rN A r AgE SURGE LTBERALS SEEMED TO BE COAI ESCING AROI'IID YA ILTNSKIY WHOSE POLL RATINGS STARTED TO CLIMB YAVLINSKIY'S SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING ERANTICAILY TO GET THEIR MA I PAST THE CO ' UNIST ZYUGAIIOV INTO THB SECOIID SLOT HOWSVER THIS BOOST IN SUPPORT IAY BE TOO TITTLE TOO I ATE AS DIVTSIONS AI''ONC THE LIBERALS AI D SOLID COMM'NIST VOTING MAIG YA TLTNSKIY UNITED STATES DEPARTIUENT OF STATE REVIEW ALTIIIORITY FRANK H PEREZ CLASSIFICATION CONTIDENTIAL REASON l a@ DECLASSIFY AFTER 26 MAR 2015 DATE CASE ID 04 SEP 2007 200702380 UNCLASSIFIED 1 4 D 86 DODE-OO TBDE-OO M-00 PA-OO IRM-OO PMB OO sAs-00 BI END SUMIIARY POLLS FLUCTUATts SLIGHTLY-- COST SHOW OIIE ROUND LIKEI Y BI 86 ACTING PRESIDENT PUTIN TITH 48 PERCSNT VO TE suPPoRT MOST RECEIIT POLLS CONTTNUE TO REFLECT PIIIIN'S VOTE ST'PPORT HO IERING ABO ZE 50 PERCSNT PUTIN'S APPROVAI RATINGS ITA IE AI SO DROPPED I''ARGINAILY IN THE SHOW CONFIDENTIAI 03 MOSCOW 0 3 5 01 0F 03 2704202 I AST FEW I EBKS BTIT THE DROP IN HIS TIKELY PERCENTAGE OF TTIE VOTE IIAS BEEN LESS DR AMATIC EVEN GI ZEN A REASONABLE ltARcIN OF ERROR pUTrN STILT RETAINS I A TORITY ST'PPORT SOME POLtSTERS EAVE REPORTED EXPECTED RESUTTS BASED NOT ONLY ON THE POLLS THEMSIEL ZES BIIT AISO BY APPTYING HTSTORTCEI PATTERNS TO POLL RESULTS SUCH AS ESTI ATING THE EFFEqIS OA THE HIGHER TURNOUT OF COr tNrST VOTERS THE TIKELIHOOD InIDECTDED voTERS WOITLD NOT BOTHER TO VOTE BTC B ZEN TI E RESI'LTS USING THIS KIIID OF METHODOLOGY TEND TO GI E PTITIN BErI EEN 53 AND 55 PERCENT OF THB VOTE SUGGESTING MOST PEOPLE WIIL GO WITH THE FRONT-RT'NNER PAGE SBU THE 48 PERCENT RATTNG FOR ptIrIN IN SOMS pOLtS I4AY BE EXPI AIIIED BY THESE POLLS' HIGH NUMBBRS FOR 3 ZYUGA IOV 28 PERCENT SUGGBSTING THAT TURNOIN FOR THE coMl uNrsT CA IDIDATE WILL BE UCH HIGIIER AND THBIR COUNTING THB RESPONSES OF ONLY THOSE I HO SAY THEY WILL DEAINIIELY VOTE OTHBR POLLS SHOW ZYUGA IOV WITH 20 PERCENT ST'PPORT OR LESS YAVLINSKIY SHOWS BETWEEN 5 AI ID 9 PERCENT YA TLINSKIY Al D ZH IY T1AVE SHOIIN SS ALL INCREASES IN THBIR POLL NUMBARS GAINED I ARGBLY EROM THOSE RESPONDENTS WHO PREVTOUSLY WERE T'NSI'RE OR WHO ARE OPPOSED TO PTITIN rN TTRIBTITE PUTIN'S SLIGHT DROP POPUI ARITY TO THE NORIIAI EROSION OF SUPPORT FOR UNCLASSIFIED SOMEONE IN OFFTCE IN LINCLASSIFIED OTHER WORDS SOME OF THE INITTAI CONFIDENTIAI PAGE 04 MOSCOW 07375 01 0F 03 2704202 BLOOM IS OFP THE ROSB TOLD US THAT PI ITIN T'NTIL RECENTLY IIAD BENEF INCUMBENCY HE COUI D LOOK PRESIDSNTTAT AND USE THE KREMLIN'S ADMINISTRATM RESOURCES TO HrS ADVAIITAGE NOlt pEOpLB ARE STARTING TO BIA IE PUTIN FOR TIIE COUNIRY'S ILLS AIID THB I ACK OF PROGRESS AI THOUGII PUIIN STITL ENiTOYS oVERI HEL fING SttppORT MORE pEOpLE ARE BECOMTNG DTSITLUSIONBD AS TIME GOES ON A ID PUTIN BtsCOMBS LESS OF A ''I'NI IERSAI MIRROR'' REFLEqTING THE HOPES OF INDIVIDUAI VO1rERS THAI HE WAS IN THE PAST s c TTIAT ON VOTERS MAY BE DISPI ASED WITH THE IACK OF ALTERNATIVES HE BELIEVES THAT IF PUTIN CA I EEED SKPECTATIONS AND AVOID A DISASTER HE WILL REI'IAIN POPIILAR BIII THAT IAJOR DISAPPOINII ENT IN HIM WOI'I D T AD TO CRISIS OTIT THAT RUSSIAIIS BELIB ZE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR PIIIIN TO DO BtsTTER TEAI I THB PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION BUt THEY ARE SKEpTIeet TOtD US THAT IF PTITIN DOES NOT WIN IN THE WILL BE SEEN AS PUIIN'S FIRST I'tAtOR DEFEAT rIfH srGNIFrCAlrT CONSE9nBNCES FOR HIS FUnRE ADMINISTRATTON 6 C THERE INEVITABTLITY IS ALSO THE QUESTION I HETHER A OOD OF WILt DEPRESS TURNOUT BY THOSE RESPOIIDENTS CONFIDENTIAIJ coNFrDENTrAt PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-01 MOSCOW 07375 02 0F 03 PTQ 655 2 0420z INFO LOG-OO NP-OO AID-OO CIAE-OO SMEC-00 DOBB-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO FBIE-OO vc-01 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 MCO-01 MOF1 -04 AC-01 NRRC-oo NSAE-oo NSCE-oo oMB-o1 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 scT-00 sso-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-oo PRM-01 uslE-o0 DRI-02 As-00 sAs-00 lo2tw o 2 03562 MAR OO sA-o1 c-00 --468A84 INL O1 H-01 DODB-OO MOF-03 M-00 oPIC-01 sP-00 PA-OO sNrs-oo Nrsc-00 PMB-OO FDrC-01 NFAT OO sAs-00 0LL543Z lSA FM EI EMBASSY OSCO ' TO SECSTATE VIASHDC IMMEDTATE OO53 UNCLASSIFIED TBDE-OO IRM-OO INFO CIS MOSCOW POLITICAT COLTECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED COLLECTI ZE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 MOSCO9I OO 3 5 E o 12958 DECLz 3 24 lO TAGS PGOV RS SI B IECT ON TllE E ZE OF THE RUSSfAN PRESTDENTIAI ELECTIONS PUTIN CLEAR I BAD YA ILINSKIY SURGE WHO NO I TtsLL POLTSTERS THEY WILL VOTE FOR PUTIN NOIts AROIIND 75 PERCENT OF THOSB PotLBD STILL BETIE ZE PUIIN ILL lrIN gND NOtrE TURNOIII COULD BE KEy TO WHEIHER PLTIIIN WILL BE FORCED INIO A SBCOIID ROt ND MORE SO IIIA I THE PROSPBCT OF OTHER CAI DIDATES' TAI ING VOTES CONFTDENTTAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW EROM PIITIN US IrIARCH 23 0 375 02 0F 03 2704202 TIIAT FOR THIS IERY REASON HS IS TOLD ORGAITIZING CAIIDIDASES ACCEPTABLE NE 'ERTHELESS EVEN HE IS COI TNCED PTITIN WIIL 9IIN 7 C 'tAlly oBsERvERs BELIE IE TLAT TAIK OF LOW TURNOIIT A ID PUTTN'S DROPPTNG NUMBERS HAVE BBEN HYPED BY THE KREMLIN PRECTSETY TO ENCOURAGE HIGH FIRST ROT' D suPPoRT IN FACT p rrlll HAS STARTED TO SAy ptBLrCLy THAT THE COST OF CONDU TING A SECOND ROUIID WOI'LD BE ENOUGH TO PAY AJ L THE PENSIONERS IN MOSCOW POLTSTBRS ARE ESTIIIATING AROUND 65 PERCENT TURNOUT DBSPITE IHE FACT THAT THE TOTAI OF THOSE WHO DO NOT PI A I TO VOIIE oR WILL VOTE AGAINST ALL OR ARE UNSURE STAI DS AT AROUND 20 PBRCENT FURTHERMORE THE DISGRUNTLBDU VOTE APPP ARS NOT TO HAVE GEIJED AROUND TI E CURRENT ''AGAINST ALL CAI PAIGII AfrlONc THOSE NAI ING CA IDIDATES TO POLLSSERS THERE STITL IS TNCERTAINTY THAT THE SUPPORT VfTLt TR A ISI ATE INTO PARTICIPATION 8 c SOME OBSER IERS SUGGE A POSSIBLE KREMLIN BOOST TO TAIG VOTES EROM ZYUGAITOV IN ALL POLLS HOWE IZER HE I AGS BEHIND YA ILINSKIY ZHIRINOVSKIY WHOSE STRAIIGE CAMPATGN WAS TOppED THIS I BEK BY HIS AI NOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOT'LD CONSIDER WITITDRAVIING AI D SUPPORTING BITHER Y L ILINSKIY OF CONFIDENTIAI UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 MOSCOW 07375 02 0F 03 2 04202 ZYUGAIIOV REI'IAINS FAR BEI IIID ZHIRTNOVSKTY' S STATEMENT AS LIKELY A STUNT BECAUSE HE HAS PBRSISTAD IN REPEATING IT ATTHOUGH THE DEADLTNE FOR WITHDRAWAI HAS PASSED e c NOTED TO US A FEW MISSTEPS BY PUTIN' S CAIr PAIGN STAFF INITIATLY PUTIN' S CAIi pAIcN FOCUSSED ON PUTTN ACTING PRESIDEI TIAI HOT EVBR THBRE WAs INSITFFICIENT PTTBLICITY AI ID PUTIN ltAS NOT OFFERED MA IY POSITTVE MOTIVATIONS TO VOIE FOR HIM ATSO NOTED THAT PTITIN OVERDID PI AYING I'P TO THE VOSER I HO APPRECIATES A STRONG MILITARY IttAcE AND IGNORED LIBBRALS SENDnrc THEM EEW SIGNALS THAT WOUTD WIN HIM THEIR SI'PPORT 10 C IAST WESK'S IJSS-THAII-ENTHUSIASTIC OF PIITIN BY REVAAI ED THE TiIEN NESSES OF THESE PARTIES THAT SPS AIWAYS HAS BEEN SPTIT BETWESN IN STAYING CLOSE TO THE KREMLIN AIID STAYING TRT'E TO THE LIBBRAI ORIENTATTON OF ITS VOTER BASE HE EURTHBR OPTNED OTECHEST O EAS DISINTEGRATED A TD WARIIED SPS IS ON TllB VERGB OF A SPLIT HE DECI ARED ''YEDINST'T O'' WILL NEVER BECOME A REAT PARTY YABLOKO'' IIAS A CHANCE TO SURVI IE AS FORCE IF YAVI INSKIY DOES BLL IN THE ELE TION ENDORSEMENTS YA TLINSKIY- - ST'PPORT A ID BACKIASH CONFIDENTTAI PAGE 04 MOSCOTV 0 3 5 02 0F 03 2 0420z 1 1 U YA TLINSKIY'S CAMPAIGN RECETVED A BOOST THIS IIEEK I HEN MOSCO9I FOT'NDATION FOR PRESIDENTI AI PROGRAI'TS AIID LUZHKOV-AI LY SEVASTYAI OV WITI DREVT EROM THE RACE A TD THREW HIS ST'PPORT BEHIIID YA TLINSKIY THIS MO IE 'AY NOT HAVE NETTtsD YA ILINSKIY IERY MANY VOTES -- AS SUPPORT FOR SEVASTYA IOV WAS AIN@ST NONEXTSTENT -- BUT DID GENERAIE PUBLTCITY HIGIILTGHTING A SIIATL PUSH AII E EN BIGGER AND MORB SIJRPRISING TURN HAPPENED WI EN SPS LEADERS IRAN KHAKA 'ADA A ID BORIS NEI'ITSOV AIINOUNCED THEY WOULD CA PAfGN FOR YA ZLINSKIY HOI E 'ER LESS TEA I 24 HOITRS LATER KI AKA ADA EXPT ATNED THAT WHAT SHE REALLY MEANT WAS TTIAT SHE HOPED YA TLINSKIY RATHER TEA I ZYUGAITOV WOUTD BECOME NTMBER TWO IUST IN CASE THERE IS A RT'N-OFF ELBqUON UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED L2 c ID OTHERS THEY WAIIT TO PROTECT HEIR JOB PROSPECTS IN AN EV ENTUAI PUTIN ADMINTSTRATION NOTED THAT KHAKALIADA IIAD BEEN PRIVATELY ADVISING PRIT'IAKOV UNTIL IT WAS OBVIOUS THAT TTE WOI'LD NOT WIN SOMETHING TIE I AD HEARD SEPARJA TELY CA TPA IGAI STYLE PRO''ECTING A Y MORE IMPRO ZED REI UGD QUASI MA I- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDBNTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-01 MOSCOIT 07375 03 0F 03 PTQ7658 2704202 INFO LOG-OO NP-OO AID-OO CIAE OO SMEC-OO INL-01 DOEE-oo SRpp-oo DS-00 FBrE-oo VC-01 H-01 INR-00 r AB-01 t-00 MCO-01 MOE M-o4 MOF-03 AC-01 NRRC-oo NSAE-oo NSCE-oo oMB-O Oprc-ol pM-00 pRs-00 sso-00 TRSE-oo DSCC-OO PRM-01 As-00 sAs-00 o 2 03562 lrAR Flr AcE-00 p-00 usrE-oo sA-01 DRL-02 G-OO I lo2tw oo scT-00 sp-00 SNIS-oo NISC-oo FDIC-o1 NFAT-OO --468AEc oLL543z lga AIIEMBASSY llOSCOlt TO SECSTATE WASTIDC IMMEDTATE OO54 INFO MOSCOW POLITICAT COTIECTI ZE CIS COLLECTI IE C O N F I D E N T I A I SEqTION 03 OF 03 MOSCOT OO 375 E o 12958 DECL 3 24 LO TAGS PGOV RS SITBJECT ON THE E VE OF THE RUSSIAI I PRESIDENTTAL ETECTIONS PUTIN CLE AR LEAD YA ILINSKIY SURGE OF-TIIE-PEOPLE I 4lAcE YAVIINSKIY' S CAIIPAIGN NOW PORTRAYS TIIB CA IDIDATE MORB AS A LE ADER A ID LESS A S AN ECONOMIST OR PARTY I ADER A ID SHOI S A MORE HU IA I SIDB YA TLINSKIY' S SUPPORTBRS ARE WORKING IIARD HOPING HE cAN ST'RG E PAST ZYUGA IOV INTO SECOND PI ACE A ID GAIN HIM THE CONFIDENTIAI PAGE 02 PREMIERSHIP MOSCOW 0 3 5 03 0F 03 PI IITIN ADMTNISTRA TTON IN A 2704202 UNCLASSIFIED DODB-OO TEDB-OO M-00 PA-OO rRM-00 PMB-OO sAs-00 I EAST 10 PERCENT OF THE VOTE SINCE THIS RESULT WOULD I EGITIMIZE HIM AS THE HEAD OF THE DEMOCRATTC OPPOSITION A ID KEEP HIM IN THE POTITICAL SPOTLIGHT BI CONFIDBNTTAT PAGE 03 MOSCOW VIEWS FROM THE REGIONS 07375 03 0F 03 - 2704202 SNAPSHOT 15 C EMBASSY ELECTTON MONITORS OUT IN THB REGIONS TO OBSERVE ST'I DAY' S VOTING HA IE BEEN MEETING V ITH REGTONAL T EADERS pARTy OFFICIAT S AIID CAI DTDATE REPRESENTATI IES TO IAICE THE PULSE OF Tt E CAMPAIGN ouTsIDE OF MOSCOI IN SAI'IARA GOVERNOR TrrOV AIID PUTIN ARE NBCK-AIID-NECX WITH ZyttGAlrOV RUNNTNG THIRD lllANy INTERLOCUTORS BELIE IE THE DETERMINING FAqTOR WILL BB HOW MUCH SI'PPORT GO IERNOR TITOV CA I MUSTER OBSERVERS PREDICTED THAT SINCE TITOV RAISED PENSION PAhIIENTS IN THE REGTON MORE OF THE TRADTTIONAT COMMUNTST VOTE WOUI D GO TO HIM THE TWO TOP EI ECTION ISST'ES FOR TI E voTERS OF SAI'IARA ARE CRIME Al D CORRITPTION READ LAW Ar ID oRDER LlrD BREjAD AltD BIIITER ECONOMTC TSSLES SUCH AS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED AIID PBNSIONS VOTBR XT'RNOIIT COUI D BE CIPSB TO 60 PERCENT VOTING FOR AGAINST AIJ SHOUI D NOT EXCEED FIVE PERCBNT THB EI BqTION SHOI'I D B8 REIATI IELY CLBAII WAGBS 16 C OrrR ONITORS IN KRASNODAR RBPORT rHAT ZyUcA rOV HAS NO MORB TtrAlr 20 PERCBNT SUppORt THBRE SINCE KRASNODAR IS $'PPOSED TO BE A RED BBLTN STRONGHOI D THESE FIGT RES DO NOE PORTBITD ELL FOR HrM BLSE9THERE IN NIZHNIY NOVGOROD THB HBAD OF THE SUBi'ECT BI ECTION COMMISSION TAS FIRED FOR EXPIAINING TO i'OT'RI AI ISTS HOII SRAT'D COI'I D BE COtafiTIIED HIS SUCCESSOR WAS ITSIBLY NERVOUS TIHEN HE MET WIIU EI IBASSY MONXTORII CONFIDBNTTAL PAGE 04 MOSCO 0 375 03 0F 03 2704202 COIIMENT CONFIDENTIAI EIID OF DOCItrIENT IJNCLASSIFIED