No Objection To Declassification in Full 2013 11 15 NLC-12-60-1-21-8 l IE' IORANDLT vl THE vVHITE HOUSE WASH NGTOl ' TOP SECRET January 12 1979 MEMORANDUM FOR ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI FROM WILLIAM E ODOM SUBJECT Weekly Report U The following is a revision per your request U Tactical Warning of a Strategic Attack U During Colonel Odom's visit to CINCLANT last week Admiral Train made the argument that close-in Soviet YANKEE-Class SSBN patrolling does not portend the kind of danger of surprise attack that General Ellis CINCSAC believes it does In fact Admiral Train argues that disappearance of the two or three SSBNs off the East Coast would be a more alarming development The accompanying JCS representative Admiral Kelln has brought Admiral Train's arguments back to the JCS where they are being debated against the CINCSAC arguments TS The implication¢ of CINCLANT's case of course that there is less probability of the short-warning scenario with only a few minutes for_ SIOP decision making and no time to evacuate to NEACP or elsewhere He reasons that the -Soviets' world-wide fleet deployment must also be assessed because most of the time it would be vulnerable to destruction by the U S fleet Preparation for Soviet attack therefore would be preceeded by moving _much of the Soviet navy to safer locations including withdrawals of SSBNs into the Barents Sea General Ellis at SAC rejects this analysis by insisting that the benefits of a surprise SSBN attack for the Soviets could easily out weigh the loss of most of their fleet It is not an argument easy to resolve but a challenge to the traditionally dominant SAC viewpoint should gen erate a heal thy review of the warning issue in the JCS TS The debate however points up an issue which will confront us 3 more often in the future the significance of the growing CI vulnerability to a decapitation attack If it became a public matter it could be used to generate a level of concern and unease far greater than concern over the vulnerability of our land-based ICBM force It is easier for journalists to articulate and easier for the average c_itizen to grasp CS TOP SECRET Review on January 12 1999 Extended by z Brzezinski Reason for Extension NSC l 13 e No Objection To Declassification in Full 2013 11 15 NLC-12-60-1-21-8