INR Dr Rod Schoonover Senior Analyst Bureau of Intelligence and Research Department of State Hearing on The National Security Implications of Climate Change Before the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence U S House of Representatives June 5 2019 UNCLASSIFIED Chairman Schiff Ranking Member Nunes and distinguished members of the Committee thank you for inviting me to speak with you today on the national security implications of climate change As a U S intelligence officer in the Deparbnent of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research it is m y job to provide clear objective and independent analysis to policymakers to advance U S national security objectives As a scientist in the intelligence community IC I blend insights derived from peerreviewed journal articles and other scientific reports with information gathered from daily intelligence reporting to provide science-informed national security analysis My understanding of this and other issues is deepened by the cadre of talented and dedicated officers in the IC many with technical expertise who quietly serve U S interests This Committee is already aware that the IC does not advocate for any particular set of policies including those that address climate change The Bottom Line Fundamental characteristics of the global climate are moving outside the bounds experienced in modem history and there is uncertainty on how some aspects of the climate will evolve Given the complex social and political contexts in which a multitude of changes are occurring however we can expect new and compounded stresses on people and societies around the world many with outcomes important for national security Climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U S national security over the next 20 years through global perturbations increased risk of political instability heightened tensions between countries for resources a growing number of climate-linked humanitarian crises emergent geostrategic competitive domains and adverse effects on militaries Increasingly probable amalgamations of these security concerns are especially worrisome Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in the next few decades but it will affect factors that that contribute to conflict such as access to natural resources People will increasingly decide to move because of deteriorating conditions both within nations and into countries that are more prosperous Perhaps most importantly the rapidity of concurrent and compounded changes to Earth's systems from human and natural causes heightens the risk for unwelcome and possibly severe climate-linked surprises Framework for Analysis The IC's task with respect to climate change is to inform policymakers of the myriad risks and uncertainties that may lie ahead rather than trying to predict the future We have therefore examined a wide range of climate change effects including those currently believed to have low probability particularly if the ramifications could be highly impactful The IC focuses on security considerations outside the United States so we do not address the direct effects of climate change on the U S homeland We expect however that many judgements could nonetheless apply to the United States UNCLASSIFIED For this analysis we consider an event a national security concern when it C Produces a noticeable even if temporary degradation of one of the elements of U S national power geopolitical military economic informational social cohesion C Indirectly influences the United States through a strategically important ally or partner C Causes adverse effects that indirectly consume U S resources Analyzing the national security implications of climate change generally requires tracing a logic trail from climate stressor to climate-linked event to societal stress to security concern an endeavor complicated by climate conditions being intertwined in a complex of social political and biophysical conditions Figure 1 Enumerating the large number of other important contributing factors is beyon d the scope of this document but illustrative examples include consumption patterns demographics environmental degradation existing social and political conditions land-use changes emerging technologies governance and the tendency for populations to concentrate in climate-vulnerable locations Changing climate conditions in combination with other stressors almost certainly will increasingly threaten national security over the next few decades Figure 1 Schematic Links Between Climate Change and National Security Social Co nditions - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - e g income inequality Po litical Co ndit io ns --C-li_m_a_t e--L-in_k-'e_d_e_v_e_n_t_ __ e g droughr - ' ' e g poor governance Hum an and Societal St ress Other Biophysical Conditions e g soil degradation J_ _____ e g food disruption t Natio nal Security Outcome Climate Conditions e g extrem e h eat e g instability Source Adapted from Climate a nd Social Stress National Research Council 2013 Many li nks involve causal rel at ionshi ps in both d irections and some links are more important than others Outcomes from human and societ al stress are highly dependent on a given population's exposure vulnerability to harm and ability to cope respond or recover from a climate-l inked event Scientific Baselin e The IC does not develop climate science we instead rely on findings from outside sources We prefer to use U S Government sources such as NASA NOAA USGS and the U S Global Change Research Prog ram In addition U S scientific institutions such as the National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine provide valuable consensus rep orts We also utilize information and analysis from m any other domestic and international sources particularly the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC and peer-reviewed journals 2 UNCLASSIFIED Figure 2 Global Temperature Anomaly by Year Since 1880 s - - - -- - - - -- - -- - - - -- - - - -- -- - - -- -- - - - - - - - ■ 1 2 E 5 Coolest Years ■ 2 70 5 Warmest Years 0 6 -10 Coolest Years ■ 6- 10 Warmest Years D 11 -20 CoolcstYears O 11-20WarmestYears 2016 1----- - -- - - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - -- - - - - - - H 2 16 1 62 0 9 iii E § '7 0 0 C n 1 08 0 0 E E 0 3 0 54 0 0 0 00 E -0 54 -0 3 0 ' ' ' ' ' 0 ' 0 N ' N 0 M ' 0 ' a 0 '° o ' R ' ' ' 0 ' § N 8 N 0 0 N ' 0 N Year Source NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis GISTEMP v3 estimated values for land and ocean surface temperatures averaged globally Temperature anomaly is the difference between a given year's temperature and a baseline computed by averaging temperature values from a sufficiently long time period here using 1850-1899 data The Earth's climate is unequivocally undergoing a long-term wanning trend as established by decades of scientific measurements from multiple independent lines of evidence Figure 2 Eighteen of the last 20 years have been the warmest on record and the last five years have been the warmest five according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies a finding echoed by other countries' meteorological agencies Extreme high-temperature events are increasing across the globe as the distribution of observed temperatures skews towards higher values and the predictability of temperatures is declining Temperatures are rising faster over landmasses particularly near the poles than open oceans and global records indicated temperatures have been rising at all depths of the ocean which absorbs over 90% of heat trapped within the Earth's climate Ocean waters are also acidifying from the absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide Looking ahead global average surface temperatures will continue to increase over the next several decades due largely to past emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide Beyond a few decades however additional temperature increases will critically depend on the cumulative atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases Since ocean warming· considerably lags that of the atmosphere ocean temperatures will increase well into the future 3 UNCLASSIFIED Rising temperatures in turn drive changes in a vast number of Earth system processes particularly in the atmosphere ocean freshwater soil ice masses permafrost and organisms comprising the biosphere The Earth's complexity complicates a detailed understanding of how these myriad temperature-dependent processes evolve and interact over time and space but scientists have elucidated trends for an important set of climate-linked phenomena including and beyond temperature Figure 3 Over time ongoing temperature increases will likely expose populations to a greater number of concurrent climate-linked events There will also be other unexpected-and potentially disruptive-climate-linked events currently uncharacterized by the scientific community Figure 3 IPCC-Projected Trends in Selected Climate-Linked Phenomena c2oso-2100 Phenomenon Change Confidence Global mean surface temperature ◊ HIGH Global mean sea level ◊ HIGH Arctic sea ice cover V HIGH Hot days and nights over land warmth frequency ◊ HIGH Cold days and nights over land warmth frequency V HIGH Extreme high sea level incidence magnituide ◊ HIGH Heatwaves and warm spells over land frequency duration ◊ HIGH Heavy precipitation events ◊ HIGH Droughts intensity duration ◊ HIGH Tropical cyclones in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific basins intensity frequency Global mean precipitation ◊ MEDIUM ◊ HIGH Contrast between wet and dry regions ◊ HIGH Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost integrity V V MEDIUM Storm tracks poleward shift ◊ HIGH Wave heights in Arctic and Southern Oceans ◊ HIGH Upper ocean temperatures ◊ HIGH Ocean acidification ◊ HIGH Oceanic oxygen content V HIGH Mountain phenomena slope instability mass movement glacial lake outbursts ◊ HIGH Animal and plant species distribution poleward and upward in altitude ◊ HIGH Timing of ecological spring events leafing greening migration etc ◊ HIGH Coral degradation and bleaching ◊ HIGH Source Adapted from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC WG II ARS 2014 Projections assume that the average global t emperature increase will exceed 2•c 3 6°F The confidence statement reflects t he IPCCs qualitative assessment of the robustness of evidence and agreement between different lines of evidence 'high indicates very high or high confidence while ·medium denotes medium confidence Phenomena with no clear trend or with significant regional variation are not shown The IPCC employs the 2050-2 100 timeframe to establish general trends the national security w indow is usually shorter and on the order of days to a few decades HIGH Key Increasing overall Decreasing overall More regions increasing t han decreasing 4 UNCLASSIFIED Extreme weather and climate events are a major risk for all societies They are caused by the rare occurrence of extreme values of certain meteorological variables such as high and low temperatures heat and cold waves increased and reduced amounts of precipitation floods and droughts and high wind speeds storms Such events may occur at different rates with different intensities or at different locations compared to historical patterns any of w hich may be disruptive Over the last IO years the IC has deepened its appreciation of the significance of extreme weather events to national security Most significantly based on the science we have come to appreciate that such events are a more near-term risk than previously assessed For classes of extreme events that increase in frequency of occurrence we expect that the distribution of future extreme events in geographical location and time will be increasingly important in terms of potential for harm Multiple extreme events of modest intensity that are clustered compounded or sequential may be more damaging or disruptive than single events that are more powerful We also recognize the potential for analogous climate-linked extreme events in the biosphere such as a mass die-off of an economically important species or sudden emergence of a destructive pest Such events are not well characterized in the academic literature but are almost certainly important as an additional and compounding stress on societies High-impact low-probability events are important when assessing risk from climate change because of their potential for substantial harm to people Scientists are particularly interested in understanding climate-linked thresholds beyond which large nonlinear shifts in subcomponents of the Earth's system occur Although likely caused by intensive land-use poor resource management policies and naturally occuring drought rather than climate change the 1930's Dust Bowl of the central United States nonetheless illustrates the severe social and economic impacts that can accompany unforeseen shifts in climate conditions Since research has not sufficiently characterized many details of these climatelinked thresholds including early warning indicators crossing them is possible over any future timeframe Potential future tipping point processes include • • • • • • • • • Very rapid die-offs of many critically important species such as coral or insects Rapid conversion of Amazon and other rainforests to grassland Massive release of carbon from methane hydrates or permafrost carbon Discontinuous decrease in summertime Arctic sea ice Rapid melting in West Antarctic or Greenland ice masses Weakening of the regional North Atantic Ocean convection belt Increased strength of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation belt Changes in the West African Monsoon Rapid-onset processes -particularly arising from socioeconomic or technological sectors-that offset or slow climate change effects are also possible 5 UNCLASSIFIED Stresses to Human and Societal Systems Climate-linked events are disruptive to humans and societies when they harm people directly or substantially weaken the social political economic environmental or infrastructural systems that support people For the next few decades which represents the era of committed climate change irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions we expect that climate change will amplify existing stresses while also creating new ones for human and societal systems Some stresses will be localized or limited to particular sectors while others may have worldwide implications such as disruptions to the global food supply Figure 4 Figure 4 Examples of Climate-Linked Stresses to Human and Societal Systems Direct impacts from extreme events such as droughts floods fires and storms Decreased surface water and groundwater resource supply and access Reduced water quality from droughts or heavy rainfall Increased species extinction and redistribution and population reductions Coastal impacts such as flooding submergence surges and erosion Redistribution of catch potential for fish and invertebrates Loss of marine biodiversity that support humans Depressed crop yields and increases in yield variability Risks to food access utilization storage and price stability Risks to global supply chains such as food minerals and products Shifts in production zones of food fiber and fuel crops Decreased energy system integrity and reliability Adverse effects on key economic sectors such as insurance and tourism Deterioration or loss of housing or shelter Declining work productivity especially from extreme heat Decreased integrity and reliability of infrastructure Disruption of ecological food webs Increased displacement of people and changes in migration patterns Negative repercussions on human health including injury disease and death Changing or emerging geographic domains such as the thawing Arctic Loss or degradation of resourcedependent livelihoods such as agriculture and pastoralism Loss of territory or infrastructure to sea level rise Change in distribution of disease-carrying organisms Increases in frequency range or toxicity of harmful algae Though not exhaustive this chart illustrates the multiplicity of potential stresses that could intensify or emerge from climate change Climate change will also produce benefical changes for some populations For example glacier melt could lessen water stress for perhaps a billion Asians over the next few decades and most plants grow better under increased levels of carbon dioxide under optimal conditions The balance of documented evidence to date suggests that net negative effects will overwhelm the positive benefits from climate change for most of the world however 6 UNCLASSIFIED National Security Implications of Climate Change Climate change will affect U S national security interests over the next twenty years through multiple concurrent and compounded pathways The following sections illustrate some significant national security concerns but examples provided are illustrative rather than comprehensive Global Perturbations No country will be immune to the effects of climate change over the next 20 years but some will be able to cope adapt or respond more effectively than others Most populations are likely to encounter multiple stresses across political social economic and human security domains-fragile states in SubSaharan Africa the Middle East and Central and Southeast Asia are especially vulnerable Local problems could spillover with global consequences such as through increased human displacement natural resource disputes commodity price volatility or violence Studies of potential economic costs from climate change vary considerably Most estimates show limited aggregate damage to the global economy over the next 20 years however economic damage to some nations or regions could be severe Past and anticipated extreme climate events may discourage investments in regions deemed especially vulnerable and insurance rates may rise well before actual adverse climate effects are felt Progress on development particularly in low-lying coastal areas may stall or recede A harsher climate also will stress or harm infrastructure not designed for such conditions especially in urban settings The financial burden of adapting and responding to emergent climate hazards and crises while expanding efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions could reduce money available for other investments Threats to human health will emerge or intensify from climate change Some groups of people are especially susceptible to climate-sensitive health hazards such as periods of extreme heat Examples include young children and the elderly populations experiencing social marginalization through poverty or migration status and individuals already suffering adverse health conditions Water-borne diseases such as diarrhea are highly sensitive to climate conditions Long-term changes in climate could gradually shift the geographic range seasonal timing and transmission intensify of infectious diseases worldwide Health care infrastructure and delivery systems are also likely to be affected Food security will almost certainly decrease in some regions The precise impact of climate change on agriculture production will differ by region and crop but damages are likely to be greater for countries located closer to the equator Elevated overnight temperatures will put particular pressure on agricultural productivity Fisheries productivity is likely to decrease in some areas such as East Asia Livestock will be increasingly vulnerable to periods of extreme heat and drought 7 UNCLASSIFIED Climate change effects could undermine important international systems on which the United States and its partners are critically dependent such as trade routes food and energy supplies the global economy and domestic stability abroad Poorly designed adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change could undermine long-term U S economic energy and security goals Ongoing climate-related hazards and the perception of Western responsibility may engender hostility towards the United States or other industrialized countries Instability Most if not all countries are unable to respond fully to the risks posed by climate-linked hazards under present conditions With increased pressure from climate change existing social and political structures will come under greater strain which could deepen grievances and stoke tensions Impacts would disproportionately fall on vulnerable populations such as youth The consequences likely w ill be severe enough in some instances to compel international reaction including from the United States Countries with weak institutions low governmental legitimacy or where the potential for conflict and political strife is already present will have increased risk of instability Cross-border displacement to neighboring poor countries may undermine regional stability Heightened Tensions over Natural Resources Water Decreases in water access quality or reliability may increase the risk of conflict between populations who share river basins or aquifers especially at the subnational level Although water is typically a source of cooperation between countries extreme w ater scarcity or rapidly changing conditions could change this dynamic Tensions are especially enflamed when an upstream country builds infrastructure such as a darn without a water-sharing agreement with downstream countries Fisheries Disputes over fishing rights and access to fisheries have become major points of contention for countries that rely heavily on fishing for food or income Ocean acidification and w arming is likely to redistribute marine fish populations benefitting some regions at the expense of others while global fisheries face additional pressures from overexploitation and declining ocean health Intensifying coral bleaching w ill harm reef ecosystems crucial for vast species of marine life Arable land Declines in land resources crucial to livelihoods and sustenance are well-known drivers of local conflict In some regions climate change effects will worsen already degraded soil quality with concomitant effects on the people who depend acutely on its productivity Human Movement An individual's decision to migrate depends on a variety of social and economic factors and there is little evidence that climate change effects have been the determining factor in these decisions to date Nonetheless people are likely to perceive additional reasons to flee their hom es because of 8 UNCLASSIFIED compounded climate change effects primarily due to the loss of access to critical resources In addition to movement within national borders- especially to urban areas -many displaced persons will migrate into neighboring countries sometimes as a staging ground for subsequent onward movement towards countries with greater economic opportunities Many receiving nations will have neither the resources nor interest to host these migra nts Increasingly inhospitable conditions and losses of territory from sea level rise will likely spur some island nations particularly in the tropical Pacific to consider relocating large segments of its population elsewhere Over the next few decades the net effects of climate change on patterns of migration and statelessness could be dramatic perhaps unprecedented Humanitarian Crises According to the World Bank an estimated two billion people already live in fragile and conflictaffected areas of the world and by 2030 at least half of the world's poor will live in these settings These populations are at a disproportionately higher risk to climate-linked hazards While natural disasters have happened for all of human history extreme events amplified by climate change may pose newfound challenges particularly when compounded events occur with greater frequency or severity in the same area The exposure and resilience of people and assets of those affected are critical factors in how crises unfold As humanitarian emergencies persist the international community's capacity-or interest- to respond will be increasingly strained New Geostrategic Competitive Domains The Arctic region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe and undergoing major and rapid transformation Retreating sea ice creates new possibilities for resource extraction tourism and Arctic fishing as well as new shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific although operating in the Arctic will continue to prove difficult Disputes over natural resource extraction operations or unresolved maritime limits and boundary claims will likely increase as the Arctic opens Adverse Effects on Militaries Increasing sea-level rise flooding drought temperatures and extreme weather events will threaten military capabilities and facilities on domestic and foreign territory including military bases and training ranges Operations and equipment will also need to be able to withstand harsher weather conditions Sea level rise and increased frequency of some tropical cyclones and its associated impacts on erosion will require significant levels of i tew surveying and mapping operations to ensure naval traversability and access to ports Personnel may also be increasingly unprepared or trained for especially severe or novel conditions such as fighting pests or combatting wildfires 9 UNCLASSIFIED Heightened Risk of Climate-Linked Surprises While climate models project continuous long-term increases in temperature and other variables scientists warn that sudden dramatic climate shifts are possible given the complexity of the system and analogs in the climate record The Earth's climate occasionally has undergone extreme shifts that greatly challenge or overpower many species' ability to adapt sometimes in as little as a decade or two A large body of scientific evidence indicates that Earth's systems are being driven by natural and manmade forces at extraordinarily high rates of change across the atmosphere biosphere cryosphere oceans and soil For example the current rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the highest in perhaps 66 million years and at levels not seen in at least 800 000 years Figure 5 Figure 5 Carbon Dioxide Levels from 800 000 Years Ago to Present 450 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 411 ppm April 2019 Pro bable appearance of homo sapiens 350 n a 'CJ Disappearance of neandertha Is 300 - 0 0 fti u 250 200 0 1950 --------- ------ ---- ----- T 150 - - - - - - - - - -- - - 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Years Ag o Source National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Paleoclimate data are reconstructed from ice core samples while direct measurements have been collected since 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii Scientists are workmg out the precise degree to which the climate responds thermally to such pulses of carbon dioxide but the resultant rate of temperature change is likely unprecedented in modem human history Many scientists highlight the growing risk that abrupt impacts from climate change will increase over the next several decades and beyond The national security implications of such changes could be severe 10 UNCLASSIFIED Closing The IC's role is not to predict the future but rather to assess risk and provide strategic warning From a national security perspective the disruption imparted by climate change and its associated effects over 20 years depends critically on at least four factors • The degree to which known levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases drive global and especially regional temperature increases a large or small influence or something in between • The degree to which the multiplicity of concurrent or sequential climate-linked hazards interact amplify or offset each other • The degree to which the drivers of climate change particularly greenhouse gas emissions will be addressed by people governments and industries • The degree to which people's exposure and vulnerability to known and anticipated climatelinked hazards are reduced The first two factors are scientific concerns and active areas of academic research people's choices in the present and future however dictate the magnitude of the last two The large range of uncertainties means that quantifying the appropriate timeframe for action is difficult-complicated by the fact that responses to stresses will often require many years to bear fruit Absent extensive mitigating factors or events we see few plausible future scenarios where significant-possibly catastrophic-harm does not arise from the compounded effects of climate change The State De-partment's Bureau of Intelligence and Research produced this document and did not coordinate with the rest of the intelligence community in its production 11