I DEPARTMENT OF STATE Washin gton O C 20520 r LE CO - - SECRET •✓ November 20 1981 MEMORANDUM TO INR - Mr Montgomer y FROM INR PMA - Robert A Martin SUBJECT Consequences of a Bomb Attack on a Nuclear Reactor Dr Jerrv Mullins of Lawrenc e Livermore Labor ator v qave a briefing y esterdav on the radjol o gical conseauence s on an attac using conventional 2 000-l b bombs on Pakistan's arachi Nuc l e E r Power Plant KANUPP He concluded that in a worst-case sce n a rio which is unlikely to occur there is a 10 % chance that 20 00 0 latent cancers might be caused in ¥arachi b y radioacti ve i odine from the plant His presentation made it clear · that the health risks of an att a ck while pos s ibly severe could be lesn i nort a nt in political term s than exaggerated casualty claims bv Pakistan Discussion Mullins rep orted on a stuay commissioned by P M and DOE on the radiologic a l ef f ects of an attack on KANUPP Althcuqh t h e study is confined to Pakistan it has obvious impli c ations f o r other parts of the world -- for example it suga e sts what concei ably coul happen if Israel s rikes pow r e actors when they eventually come on line in the Middle East KANUPP its e lf i s strongly -built and a hard tarqet to carn aae although it is not p resently prote cted b y anti-a i rcraft s ys te s since i t is Pakistan's only signif i cant source of µlutonium r n ata might conc e ivably try to kno ck it ou t of commis s ion ar c aestrov the spent fuel and hence the plutonium in the core of the reactor and in the spent fuel pond Mullins noted that for radiation to escape from KANUPP the containme nt of the re a ctor would have to be b reached an the fuel itself damaged he most lethal consequences would occur only if the fuel in KANUPP's core melted d o wn A meltdown occurs whep the fuel overheats because the cooling s y stem fails if containme nt is breach eo r a diation will esc a pe jnto the environme nt · Gas 0ou s f i ssion Prt ' 0 1ct s anr'l ST ' l P rt icJ es c n t- 0 0 1 0 - gr ea t dis t ances by U h • v · ' 'c makir ' 1 - - c nt am nat io n of wi cle a reas oossible i f weather cond1 l 1 o ns a re unfa vorDble Never t hel e ss tbe impac t o n he a l th i s hard to pre d ict Dif fer e nt r a ioisn t o o cs h ve DECLASSIFIED ND 6 o t 'l 7 Authority N SECRET - 2 - different health effects there are various wavs of helnq expose to them inhalation ingestion or r dioactive shine from the atmosphere or the qround aqe a d diet plav a role ana the lonq term delayed effects of radiation are not well understood Mullins emohasizen that Livermore's computer analvses of an attack on KAN PP are ased on a worst case scenario w ich thouqh conceivable 1s not likely They posit that at the t1me of an attack the reactor is operating at near full power containment is penetrated the cooling system ruptureo safetv and back-up systems knocked out meltdown occurs and steam and hot qases carry radioactive materials into the atmosphere It is further assumed that 2 000-lb iron bombs the kind the Israelis used in Iraq blow al least a one square meter hole in the thick concrete and steel containment shell Finally it is assumed that 1 6 of the plant's total iodine inventory or 800 000 curies of I-131 escapes through this hole Under these extreme conditions Karachi residents would probably receive a 10 to 20 REM inhalation dose as far as 25 km down wind Mullins said that an iodine release of this maqnitude would be 20 times as great as the serious escape of iodine durinq an accident at a UK reactor at Windscale in the 1960s Since Karachi is 20 km down wind from KANUPP and has a population of at least 5 million but more probably 8 million it could suffer heavy casualties The worst result of iodine inhalation is latent thvroid cancer which may take 15 to 30 years to develop In thfs worstcase scenario there is a 70% probability that there will be 10 additional latent thyroid cancers in Rarachi as a result oF the attack a 60% chance •there will be 100 cancers a 50% chance there will be 200 a 30% chance there will be a 1 000 and a 10 chance there will be 20 000 About 10% of thyroid cancers are fatal Mullins commented that casualties miqht be hiqher than the middle ranges of these estimates suggest The current Livermore study deals only with iodine chiefly because its health effects are well-documented but other radioisotopes would also be released by an attack Prompt as distinct from delayed radiation could also be a threat Blast and heat would have localized effects at KANUPP if not in Karachi itself Anv IniH an attack probably would also be directed against KANUPP's fuel oond since irradiated fuel stored there forms the bulk of Pakistan's · plutonium resources the rest in the core of the reactor itself SECRET DECLASSIFIED - • Authority tJtJIJ C@Q I SECRET - 3 - this could produce further raa ation And f inallv if ntermeasures e g evacuation were not taken promptly bv achi authorities iodine could qet into the food chain ana harm consumers of cattle and goat milk Mullins closed by observ i ng that if an attac k di a occur Pakistan would almost certainly use a series of worst-case pro i ections to arrive at a tot a l casualty f iqure to put b e f ore t h e world Given the methodology Pakistani sc i entists wou l d b e inclined to use the final f igure could be a huqe one Its political and propaganda impact would be considerable on the other hann he said India's proiections o f radiationrelated casualties from an attack on KANUPP would probably be higher than Livermore's This miqht dissuade the Inaians from hitting KANUPP and along with other factors miqht encouraqe them to go after softer targets e g the Kahuta enrichment Plant near Islamabad Destruction of these other tarqets would not present such a large radiation hazard Drafted INR PMA NS HJ in 11 20 81 X28230 cc INR - Amb Cohen INR CA - Mr Stoddard NEA - Amb Schneider NEA PAB - Messrs Peck and Simmons OES - Mr Marshalj T - Mr Salmon _ M - Mr Dunn SECRET DECLASSIFIED ' Authority NN JhC