Pak may go for pre-emptive strikes against India in face of imminent war US intel forecast timesofindia indiatimes com city guwahati pak-may-go-for-pre-emptive-strikes-against-india-in-face-of-imminent-warus-intel-forecast articleshow 120833186 cms Guwahati A recently declassified US intelligence report of 1993 evaluating the years ahead assessed that Pakistani war plans call for pre-emptive strikes against Indian forces if its leaders are convinced an all-out attack is imminent because it lacks the strategic depth to absorb such an attack and underlined that intelligence failures could prove disastrous The analysts in the report said If India's military leaders were convinced rightly or wrongly that Pakistani units were preparing another conventional assault on Kashmir they probably would order armored strike units into wartime positions in Punjab and Rajasthan That in tum would prompt Pakistan countermoves These forecasts were made by the National Intelligence Estimate NIE in its report IndiaPakistan Prospects for War in the 1990s which added that in the event of a war US believed there was a strong possibility that such a conflict could lead to the use of nuclear weapons Much of contents of the report was released by CIA in Feb in response to the National Security Archive's mandatory declassification review appeal The analysts who authored the report found that heads of both countries want to avoid war but underlined several events which could trigger an escalating confrontation which include a protracted surge of violence in Kashmir that threatened New Delhi's grip on the state The report assessed that India has no strategic interest in initiating a war with Pakistan and Pakistan has lost previous engagements and its leaders probably believe another war could destroy the military or even the state mechanisms confidence building measures CBMs The report says existing crisis reduction such as the military communications hotline between New Delhi and Islamabad which have contributed to the lndo-Pakistani dialogue but might prove irrelevant in a fast-moving crisis It said that for US its greatest concern is a breakdown of nuclear deterrence during a crisis 1 2 The report's Indian and Pakistani Views on Nuclear Weapons points out that India views nuclear weapons primarily as the coin of international power and prestige deterrence against Pakistan retaliation against a Pakistani first strike should deterrence fail and a strategic equalizer with China India though mindful of the high costs of a nuclear exchange probably believes it could absorb a limited nuclear strike from Pakistan and then could retaliate while Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India The analysts have also assessed that powers with interests in the region want stability and are pushing the two sides to avoid war Russia no longer has a strategic reason to back India against Pakistan China does not want instability nearby to distract it from domestic issues Support for either side by Middle Eastern states is unlikely to be pivotal the analysts add On complications for the United States the analysts stated that India and Pakistan likely will seek US assistance in reducing the risk of inadvertent war and yes the two countries are not impervious to US pressure Prabin Kalita Prabin Kalita is a journalist at The Times of India and is currently the Chief of Bureau northeast He has been reporting in mainstream Indian national media since 2001 He has been a field journalist reporting gamut of issues from India’s northeastern region and major developments in neighbouring countries like Myanmar China Bhutan and Bangladesh concerning India and northeastern region He has been covering insurgency—internal and cross-border politics natural calamities environment etc He is a post-graduate in Geological Sciences from Gauhati University 2 2