I • I ' ' • •• 29 October 1963 WASH PASS POLL IIBIEDIATE IISG P iCR' 71 MLY aid o f i - 1j - J # VIA CAS SAIGON 040 FROM AMBASSADOR LODGE DTG 29 1030Z TO SECSTATE WASH EYES ONLY R R RUSK HARRIMAN BALL HILSMAN 1 HUG ES 0 OSD EYES ONLY FOR MCNAMARA · GILPATRIC TAYLOR KRULAK YR WM WHITE HOUSE EYES ONLY MCGIDRGE BUNDY 25X1A FOR ADM FELT EYES ONLY INFO CIA BYES ONLY MCCONE CARTER HELMS 1 I HAVE REVIEWED THE FOLLOWING FACTORS WHICH APPEAR 'ID ME TO BE PARTICULARLY RELEVANT IN A BALANCED EXAMINATION OF THE t c 0 iE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHANCES OF A SUCCESSFUL COUP D'ETAT A 25X 1C OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE APPARENT LACK OF DETAIL FURNISHED BY BOTH WITH RmARD TO THE MILITARY UNITS TO BE INVOLVED AND THE POLITICO PSYWAR SIDE THIS APPEARS TO ME TO BE AT LEAST IN PART EXPLAINED BY THE GENERALS' RETICENCE TO REVEAL THESE DETAILS AT THIS POINT AND BECAUSE OF WHAT MUST BE A MUCH GREATER REGARD FOR SECURITY THAN WAS THE CASE IN AUGUST THE GENERALS ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE A Presidential Library revie for State Dept equity required c· Approved For Release 20f 8 F-16-5-1---6-9 1 ° J•- -· DECLASSIFIED AUTHORtrv l J 3 BY - RAc- u I NLF DATE bl- · 11 -· • z 01_ __ __ r ' ____ - ___ - __·-·- ---· · - ·-- ' -··---·-----· ·-- ·- - - ·-- i ----·-------·----·-·- -----· - ' Approved Ft ele -e 2 o r1 - f 'J F ·16-- --6- ' t ' '- ua I ' Li c '' ' - 2 ' f l lv CERTAIN AMOUNT OF COMPARTMENTATION AND DIVISION OF LABOR AMONG THE PRINCIPALS WHICH ON aALAN'CE SHOULD WORK TO OUR ADVANTAGE B THE ACKNOWLEDGED INVOLVEMENT OF GENERAL DINH IS AN EXTREMELY VARIABLE FACTOR _- THE GENERALS SEEM ACUTELY AWARE OF THIS Am aillSTATES THAT THEY _HAVE HIM UNDER TWENTY-FOUR HOUR A DAY SURVEILLANCE AND ARE PREPARED ' ro NEUTRALIZE HIM AT ANY IME SHOULD BE KICK OVER THE TRACES ·- · ' ' C THE POSSIBILITY OF A PRDATURE UNRELATED AND PRECIPITATE COUP BY COL PHAM NGOC THAO OR OTHERS CJ LOOMS LARGE AS A NEGArIVE FACTOR AGAIN THE GENERALS _ APPEAR C01dPLETELY AWARE OF THIS AND AS YOU KNOW WE HAVE NEVER BEEN PARTICULARLY SANGUINE THAT THAO HAS THIS CAPABILITY D KNOWLEDGE OF THE INVOLVEMENT OF CERTAIN CIVILIAN OPPOSITIONIST _ELEMENTS NOTABLY BUI DIEM WHO HAS STATED THAT HE IS LIAISON BETWEEN GENERAL ' KIM AND CIVILIAN LEADERS PROBABLY DANG VAN SUNG ' ' AND PHAN HUY QUAT REPR ENTS BOTH A POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTOR ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IT REPRF SENTS AN EXTENSION OF KNOWLEDGE WEAKENING THE SECURITY ELEMENT BUT ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IT INDICATES AN ' Approved For Release 20 1 8 1-% -16-5-1---6-9 UJ c i 2si ·- ·---- • •'• - 3 - AWARENESS OF THE NECESSITY OF CIVILIAN POLITICA L 25X1 INCLUSION AND THE FACT THAT A S - RAS STATED IT IS NOT INTENDED 'll ESTABLISH A MILITARY JUNTA TRAN TRUNG DUNG'S KNO wt EDGE AND PROBABLE INVOLVEMENT DESPITE HIS DISCLAIMER FURTHER INDICATES INTENTION ro FORM CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT PROBABLY WITHIN FRAME OF iEFERENCE OF CONSTITUTIONAL SUCCESSION E I AM DISTURBED OVER THE REPORTED DISCUSSION OF COL NGUYEN KBUONG' S APPROACHES TO U S JULITARY PERSONNEL WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZATION OF THE COUP PRINCIPALS IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT KHUONG'S2sx1 ROLE WAS OBSCURE IN TllE AUGUST COUP ACTiVITIES _ c C v 0 - 0 HAS STATED THAT THE COUP PRINCIPALS WOULD DISCIPLINE KHUONG AND THAT HE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SCENE F I T WOULD SEEM TO ME THAT TllE EXISTENCE OF AN IMMINENT COUP ATMOSPHERE WOULD REDUCE TllE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE NECESSARY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF A COUP D'ETAT THIS COUP ATMOSPHERE HAS PERTAINED HOWEVER FOR SEVERAL MONTHS WHICH WOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE STATE OF READINES S FOR COUNTERING SUCH A COUP ATTEMPT WE HAVE SOME INFORMATION THAT COUNTER-COUP COMBAT ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN SUBORNED THE FACT THAT THE ' - ✓ Approved For Release 2001 08 16 NLF-16-5-1---6-9 ------------- l •ii u r r 11 - - - - · _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ •• - _ •• ·_ _ · ···-· • • _ -· · -'• • • - ·•·· · - - --- ----- - ·· -- --- • • ' ___ --- - ' J · _ •'' Approved For91ease 2 1 08 16 _ __N_lr F s-5 g ' ' ' ' '' - ij _ ' ' ' ·• ' ' ' Tl c - 0 - 4 - c COUP PRINCIPALS REMAIN AS THE RF SPONSIBLE MILITARY - v a ' AUTH ORITY ·ENHANCF s BOTH ·THEIR KNGWLEDGEAND ABILITY TO DISPOSE THE UNITS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST I 2 I •' • • ADDITIONAL FACTORS WHICH SHOULD BE NOTED ARE A TO DATE THE GENERALS HAVE NOT INDICATED EITHER A DESIRE FOR OR DEPENDENCE ON OUR SUP PORT OR ACTIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF A COUP '' ON THE CONTRARY THE GENERALS HAVE REPEATEDLY DEMANDED THE LEAST POSSIBLE AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT B ALTHOUGH WE ARE -WELL AWARE OF THE PROFUNDITY OF STUDENT AND BUDDHIST DISSIDENCE AND UNREST AND EVEN ABILITY TO UNDERTAKE CERTAIN LIMITED ACTION WE DO NOT KNOW OF ANY PLANS 'l'O UTILIZE THESE ELEMENTS AND OF COURSE CANNOT CALCULATE THE EXTENT OF SPONTANEOUS ACTION THEY MIGHT UNDERTAKE C ACTION TAKEN WITH RESPECT 'IO THE COMMERCIAL IM PORT PROGRAM AND THE SEVERENCE OF SUPPORT OF CERTAIN ELEMENTS UNDER COL TUNG HAVE CREATED A COUP ATMOSPHERE AND SOME DETERIORATION IN THE ECONOMIC SITUATION CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLUCTUATION OF THE PIASTRE VALUE THE DISAPPEARANCE OF GOLD ON THE MARKET AND THE RISING PRICES OF CONSUMER COMMODITIES 0 Approved For Release 2001 08 16 ' ' ' NJ F-1 -5-1---6-9 J J ts »it -c C l 0 r- 0 r 11 Ll c' Approved Fo__ · - ---· ' -··- - ---- · ·---- ·- ··- -· - -· - -·-·-- · ______ --··-·--· 1eJ e 200 o i _ s _ F-16-5 -6-9 • ' -· c - · - ' j tt- ·_ - lS - D PLEASE NOTE -DOES NOT WANT J4E TO CHANGE DATE OF MY _DEPARTURE FOR ·WASHINGTON WE ARE REVIEWING WHOLE SITUATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE WHETHER CHANGE MY DEPARTURE IS JUSTIFIED 3 A POINT WHICH MUST BE COMPLETELY UNDERSTOOD IS THAT WE ARE NOT ENGINEERING THIS COUP THE SUM TOTAL OF OUR RELATION- SHIP THUS FAR IS THAT WE WILL NOT THWART· A COUP THAT WE WILL MONITOR AND REPORT AND THAT _CONEIN'S LONG STANDING FRIENDSHIP WITH Y BE A REAL HELP c C 4 IN SUMMARY · IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A COUP ATTEMPT BY THE WILL BE BLAMED HOWEVER UNJUSTIFIABLY AND FINALLY THAT NO POSITIVE ACTION BY TIJE USG CAN PREVENT A COUP ATTEMPT SHORT OF INFORMING DIEM AND NHU WITH ALL THE OPPROBRIUM THAT SUCH AN ACTION WOULD ENTAIL NOTE TOO -STATEMENT WE -WILL ONLY HAVE FOUR HOURS NOTICE THIS RULES OUT MY CHECKING WITH YOU BETWEEN TIME I LFARN OF COUP AND TIME THAT IT STARTS U S WILL NOT BE IT MEANS ABLE SIGNIFICANTLY ro INFLUENCE COURSE OF EVENT v 0 f- 0 SUCCEEDS THE USG MUST BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT WE - GDBRALS 1 GROUP IS I 14141 THAT WHBTHER THIS COUP FAILS OR 25X1C DATE BY THE GENERALS FOR MATERIAL OR FINANCIAL _SUPPORT WE MUST ANTICIPATE THAT SUCH REQUESTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING c · 0 ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO REQUESTSJ 'IO 2 - ' Approved For Release 2001 08 -16 NLF-16-5-1---6-9 • t VJ- j ioiJlu -1 r Q