' r - r I - ' TbP I - 1 J - I • I J 'FOP S BOfl E'P TO CAS SAIGON EYES ONLY FOR AMB LODJE FROM MCGEORGE BONDY YOUR 2023 2040 2041 AND 204 3 EXAMINED WITH CARE AT HIGHEST 1 LEVELS HERE YOU SHOULD PROMPTLY DISCUSS THIS REPLY AND ASSOCIATED MESSAqES TH HARKINS WHOSE RESPONSIBILITIES TOWARD ANY COUP ARE VERY HEAVY ESPECIALLY AFl'ER YOU LEAVE SEE PARAGRAPH 7 BELOW g THEY GIVE MUCH CLEARER PICTURE GROUP I S ALLEGED PLANS AND ALSO INDICATE CHANCES OF ACTION f2 · Cl WITH OR WITHOUT OUR APPROVAL NOW SO SIGNIFICANT THAT WE SHOULD URGENTLY a w l CONSIDER OUR ATTITUDE AND CONTINGENCY PLANS WE NOTE PA RTICULARLY DON'S c CURIOSITY YOUR DEPARTURE AND HIS -INSISTANCE CONEIN BE AVAILABLE FROM - WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON WHICH SUGGESTS DATE MIGHT BE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY C v r- 0 2 BELIEVE OUR ATTITUDE TO COUP GROUP CAN STILi HAVE DECISIVE EFFECT ON ITS DECISIONS · WE BELIEVE THAT WHAT WE SAY TO COUP GROUP CAN 0 r c PRODUCE DELAY OF COUP AND THAT BE'TRAYAL OF COUP PLANS TO ·DIEM IS NOT RPT NOT OUR ONLY WAY OF STOPl'ING COUP WE THEREFORE NEED URGENTLY YOUR COMBINED ASSESSMENT WITH HARKINS AND OAS INCLUDING THEIR SEPARATE COMMENTS IF THEY DESIRE • WE CONCERNED T T OUR LINE-UP OF FORCES IN SAIGON BEING CABLED IN NEXT MESSAGE INDICATES APPROXIMATELY EQUAL BALANCE OF FORCES WITH SUBSTANTIAL POSSIBILITY SERIOUS AND PROLONGED FIGHTING OR EVEN DEFEAT l ' • ---- _ EITHER OF THESE COULD BE SERIOUS OR EVEN DISASTROUS FOR U s INTERESTS SO THAT WE MOST HAVE ASSURANCE BALANCE- OF FORCES CLEARLY FAVORAJ 3LE 3 • WITH YOUR ASS ESSMENT IN HAND WE MIGHT FEEL THAT WE SHOULD CONVEY MESSAGE TO DON WHETHER OR NOT HE GIVES 4 OR 48 JlOURS NOTICE THAT I• WOULD A CONTINUE EXPLICIT HANDS-OFF POLICY B POSITIVELY ENCOURAGE OP SE9tlM' _ _ d ·oECLASS FIED· AUTHORITYMc - r u s _ BY U NLF DATE s1 s oz ·• j t ·I 2 l COUP OR C DISCOURAGE 4 IN ANY CASE BELIEVE CONEIN SHOULD FIND EARLIEST OPPORTUNITY EXPRESS TO DON THAT WE DO NOT FIND PRESENTLY REVEALED PLANS GIVE CLEAR PROSPECT OF QUICK RESULTS THIS -CONVERSATION SHOULD CALL ATTENTION 'IMPORTANT SAIGON UNITS 'ILL APPARENTLY LOYAL TO DIEM AND RAISE SERIOUS ISSUE AS TO WHAT MEANS COUP GROUP HAS TO DEAL WITH THEM L 5 FROM OPERATIONAL STANDPOINT WE ALSO DEEPLY CONCERNED DON ONLY 5 - t' t3 SPOKESMAN FOR GROUP AND POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED HE MAY NOT BE IN GOOD FAITH E WE BADLY NEED SOME CORROBORATIVE EVIDENCE WHETHER MINH '1- AND OTHERS DIRECTLY AND COMPLETELY INVOLVED C IN VIEW DON'S CLAIM HE 0 G DOES NOT HANDLE MILITARY PLANNING COULD NOT CONEIN TELL DON THAT WE NEED 0 BETTER MILITARY PICTURE AND THAT BIG MINH COULD COMMUNICATE THIS MOST NATURALLY AND EASILY TO STILLWELL WE RECOGNIZE DESIRABILITY INVOLVING MACV TO MINIMUM BUT BELIEVE STILLWELL FAR MORE DESIRABLE THIS PURPOSE THAN USING CONEIN BOTH WAYS 6 COMPLEXITY ABOVE ACTIONS RAISES QUESTION WHETHER YOU SHOULD ADHERE TO PRESENT THURSDAY SCHEDULE CONCUR YOU AND OTHER US ELEMENTS SHOULD TAKE NO ACTION THAT COULD INDICATE US AWARENESS COUP POSSIBILITY HOWEVER DOD IS SENDING BERTH-EQUIPPED MILITARY AIRCRAFT THAT WILL ARRIVE SAIGON THURSDAY AND COULD TAKE YOU OUT THEREAFTER AS LATE AS SATURDAY AF'l'ERNOON IN TIME TO MEET YOUR PRESENTLY PROPOSED ARRIVAL WASHINGTON SUNDAY YOU COULD EXPLAIN THIS BEING · DONE AS CONVENIENCE AND THAT YOUR WASHINGTON ARRIVAL-IS SAME A FURTHER ADVANTAGE SUCH AIRCRAFT IS THAT IT WOULD PERMIT YOUR PROMPT RETURN FROM ANY POINT EN ROUTE IF NECESSARY TO REOOCE TIME IN TRANSIT YOU SHOULD USE THIS PLANE BUT WE RECIGNIZE C DELAYING YOUR DEPARTURE MAY INVOLVE GREATER RISK THAT_YOU PERSONALLY OP 8 SO -i -------- - --- -n gi TOP EC'RB'fe 3 'tf'd WOULD APPEAR INVOLVED IF ANY ACTION TOOK PLACE di ' HOWEVER ADVANTAGES I YOUR HAVING EXTRA TWO DAYS IN SAIGON MAY Ot1 rWEIGH THIS AND WE LEAVE I TIMING OF FLIGHT TO YOUR JUOOMENT I - 7 • WHETHER YOU LEAVE THURSDAY OR LATER BELIEVE IT ESSENTIAL THAT PRIOR YOUR DEPARTURE THERE BE FULLEST CONSULTATION HARKINS AND CAS AND THAT THERE BE CLEAR ARRANGEMENTS FOR HANDLING A NORMAL ACTIVITY B CONTINUED COUP CONTACTS C ACTION IN · EVENT A COUP STARTS WE ASSUME 5 - IX YOU WILL WISH TRUEHEART AS CHARGE TO BE HEAD OF COUNTRY TEAM IN NORMAL SITUATION BUT HIGHEST AUTHORITY DESIRES IT CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THAT AFTER YOUR DEPARTURE HARKINS SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN SUPERVISION OF ALL 2 1 ' i 1 '- 8 COUP CONTACTS AND THAT IN EVENT A COUP BEGINS HE BECOME HEAD OF CCUNTRY 0 TEAM AND DIRECT REPRESENTATIVE OF PRESIDENT WITH TRUEHEART IN EFFECT 0 ACTING AS POLAD r 0 ON COUP CONTACTS WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS GUIDANCE AND WILL EXPECT EQUALLY CONTINUOUS REPORTING WITH PROMPT ACCOUNT OF ANY IMPORTANT DIVERGENCES IN ASSESSMENTS OF HARKINS AND SMITH 8 j' J i IF COUP SHOULD START QUESTION OF PROTECTING U S NATIONALS AT ONCE ARISES WE CAN MOVE MARINE BLT INTO SAIGON WITHIN 24 HOURS IF TAN SON NHUT AVAILABLE BY AIR FROM OKINAWA WE ARE SENDING INSTRUCTIONS TO CINCPAC TO ARRANGE ORDERLY MOVEMENT OF SEABORNE MARINE BLT TO WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTH VIETNAM IN POSITION TO CLOSE SAIGON WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS 9 WE ARE NOW EXAMINING POST-COUP CONTINGENCIES HERE AND REQUEST YOUR IMMEDIATE RECOMMENDATIONS ON POSITION TO BE ADOPTED AFTER COUP BEGINS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO REQUESTS FOR ASSISTANCE OF DIFFERENT SORTS FROM ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER ALSO REQUEST YOU FORWARD CONTINGENCY -0 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION IF COUP A SUCCEEDS B FAILS c IS 410i gi CIUi C ·--- --•------- - - · -'----- - ·----- - -- · - - - ' ---- ·-r I -'l' OP SEG'Rm 4 CJ INDECISIVE 10 tr WE REITERATE BURDEN OF PROOF MUST BE ON COUP GROUP TO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL POSSIBILITY OF QUICK SUCCESS OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DISCOURAGE THEM FROM PROCEEDING SINCE A MISCALCULATION COULD RESULT IN ' JEOPARDIZING U S POSITION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA · -1 - a b o· l iv'dat7 a LJ l l l '-1- c 0 u 0 E- 0 r Cl C '