VlLCLASSUlKt Authority ______ ________ • । Jeclassified Authority 29850 Ey Pam Jahnke Date 7-02-2014 sasdoc key o fbc SAS_1970s dbo SAS_Docs 2250567 dbfields auto_decaptlon Z auto_decaptlon capture_date 01 JAN 1994 capture_date channel n a channel class GLCRET ■Jclass concepts NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL PLUTONIUM DATA NUCLEAR WEAPONS NUCLEAR BOMBS NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES concepts con1rol_nbr n a co ntrol„nbr copy SINGLE copy date 03 JUN 1974 date decaption_date 01 JAN 196O decaption_date decap ion_note decaption_note disp_action n a disp_action disp_approved_on_date disp_approved_ori_date disp_au1hority n a disp_authority disp_case n a disp_case disp_comfnent disp_commenl disp_date Ol JAN 1960 disp_date disp_event disp_event disp_hlstory n a dlsp_history disp_reason disp_reason disp remarks disp_remarks docJnbPl 974OTTAWA01670 doc_nbr doc_source COR E doc_source doc_unique_id 00 doc_unique_id drafier n a drafter enclosure n a enclosure eo X1 eo e rro rs N A e rrors film D740140-0944 lrom OTTAWA from handling LIMDIS handling image_path image_path isecure 1 isecurc legacy_key link1974 newtext tl 9740680 aaaacree tef flegacy_key line count 124 1ine_count locaioi TEXT ON-LINE ON MICROFILM ocator office AC'nON EUR office corigclasssGECRCT- origclass orighand LIMDtS orighand origpcla s s n a origpcl ass origphand n a origphand page_coun 3 page_count pchannel pchannel pclass n a pclas5 phand1ing n a phandling reference n a reference review_action W1THDRAWN APPRO VED revew_acliOP revlew_authority garlanwa review_authority review_comment n a review_comment review_contenl_flagsx review_conlent_f ags review_date 29 JUL 2002 review_date review_eventx review_event review_exemptions RDFRD review_exemptions revfew_his ory WITHDRAWN lt 15 APR 2002 by IzenbelO 3 4X1 gt WITHDRAWN lt 29 JUL 2002 NW# 29850 Dodd 31782061 DJECLASSIFIED ■ Authority __________________________ J by garlanwa RDFRD REFER TO DOE gt APPROVED lt 29 JUL 2002 by garlanwa gt review_hislory revlew_markings Not releasable under either Executive Order or other law or regulation US Department of State EO Systematic Review 30 JUN 200S review_markings review_medla_id review_media_id review_refenals DOE review_referrals review_release_d ate n a re view_release_date review_release_event n a review_release_event review_1ransfer_date review_transfer_date review_withdrawn_fields n a review_withdrawnjields secure OPEN secure status NATIVE status subject TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF INDIAN NUCLEAR TEXT subJect lags TECH FARM IN CA tags to STATE to type TE type dbfields marklngs Not releasable under either Executive Order or other law or regulation US Department of Slate EO Systematic Review 30 JUN 2005 markings msgtext 3ECRET- PAGE 01 OTTAWA 01670 040013Z 63 ACTION EUR-10 INFO OCT-01 SS-14 ISO-00 NEA-09 NSC-07 NSCE-00 RM-03 CIAE-00 INR-10 NSAE-00 RSC-01 DODE-00 ACDA-10 PRS-01 SCI-03 10-03 DRC-01 073 W ------002395 R 032229Z JUN 74 FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3596 -SECRET OTTAWA 1670 LIMDIS NOFORN E O 11652‘XGDS-1 3 TAGS TECH PARM IN CA SUBJECT TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF INDIAN NUCLEAR TEXT NW# 29850 Dodd 31782061 v tia r i tu Authority -------------------- i 1 SUMMARY VIEWS OF CANADIAN TECHNICAL PERSONNEL FAMILIAR WITH INDIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM NOT PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ARE REVIEWED THEY INDICATE THAT INDIA'S WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM INVENTORY COULD EXCEED AN UPPER LIMIT ESTIMATE OF 100 KILOGRAMS AND THAT LEADS MAY HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE AS EARLY AS 1968 IF NOT SOONER CONCERNING INDIAN INTENTIONS DEPARTMENT GUIDANCE REQUESTED CONCERNING DESIRABILITY OF SEEKING ADDITIONAL DETAILS END SUMMARY 2 CANADIAN quot BEST ESTIMATE quot OF POSSIBLE INDIAN INVENTORY OF WEAPONS-GRADE REPEAT WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM CHARACTERIZED AS MUCH CLOSER TO A quot GESTIMATE quol THAN ESTIMATE ON BASIS OF ASSUMPTION THAT FORMER PLUTONIUM PURHCASE SPECIFICATIONS FOR NRX NRU PLUTONIUM STILL REPRESENTS quot TOP-GRADEiquot WEAPONS MATERIAL CANADIANS ESTIMATE INDIANS SHOULD HAVE BETWEEN 50 AND 100 KILOGRAMS AVAILABLE ESTIMATING OFFICIAL PRIVATELY OF THE OPINION THAT FIGURE IS quot ALMOST CERTAINLY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LIMIT AND COULD EVEN BE CONSIDERABLE MORE quot THIS SECRET- PFCRFT— PAGE 02 OTTAWA 01670 040013Z ESTIMATE BASED ON PRODUCTION IN TROMBAY REACTOR ALONE AND MAKES NO ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PRODUCTION COULD WELL HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN RAJASTHAN NUCLEAR POWER STATION 3 AECB OFFICIALS PROTECT FULLY HAVE IN PRIVATE DISCUSSION WITH EMBASSY SCIATT TAKEN ISSUE WITH AECL PRESIDENT GRAY'S PUBLIC COMMENT SEE OTTAWA 1533 THAT NUCLEAR MATERIAL COULD NOT HAVE COME FROM RAJASTHAN THESE OFFICIALS WHO REPEATEDLY VISITED ALL CANADIAN-ASSISTED NUCLEAR SITES IN INDIA AS INSPECTORS OBSERVED THAT GRAY'S STATEMENT MAY BE TECHNICALLY CORRECT IN THE SENSE THAT SPECIFIC MATERIAL USED IN INDIAN DEVICE TESTED MAY NOT HAVE COME FROM RAJASTHAN THEY PRIVATELY BELIEVE RAJASTHAN tlAS CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST SOME PRODUCTION TO WEAPONS-GRADE MATERIAL INVENTORY BASIS FOR THIS OBSERVATION IS THAT THEY ARE AWARE OF AT LEAST quot SEVERAL8quot FUEL BUNDLES WHICH WERE DISCHARGED FROM RAJASTHAN REACTORS AT BURN-UP LEVELS OF CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 600 NWD TONNE 4 COMMENT ALTHOUGH OPERATION OF ON-LINE NUCLEAR POWER STATION AT LOW FUEL BURN-UP LEVELS CLEARLY UNECONOMICAL IF POWER PRODUCTION IS PRIMARY PURPOSE OF OPERATION DESIGN OF CANDU REACTORS CLEARLY PERMITS UNECONOMICAL LOW BURN-UP OPERATION IF DESIRED FURTHERMORE VERSATILITY PROVIDED BY ON-LINE REFUELING HAS LONG BEEN RECOGNIZED AS HOLDING THE POTENTIAL TO CIRCUMVENT INSPECTION CONFIRMATION OF ACTUAL BURN-UP CONSEQUENTLY IF PRIVATE VIEW OF THESE CANADIAN INSPECTORS IS TAKEN SERIOUSLY THE INCREASED POWER LEVELS AVAILABLE IN RAJASTHAN COULD MAKE EVEN THE 100 KILOGRAMS UPPER LIMIT MODEST END COMMENT 5 A CHECK WITH KNOWLEDGEABLE OFFICIALS OF THE THREE CANADIAN AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FOLLOWING TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE NW# 29850 Dodd 31782061 DECLASSIFIED Authority ft f - J INDIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM INDICATES THAT SINCE THE INDIAN TEST THEY HAVE BEEN OCCUPIED ANSWERING SPECIFIC QUESTIONS NO REPEAT NO ORGANIZED COMPREHENSIVE FULL-SCALE POST MORTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CONDUCTED OR EVEN CONTEMPLATED IT NOT CONDUCTED WITH KNOWLEDGEABLE PEOPLE S GNIFICANT INFORMATION MAY BE PERMANENTLY LOST FOR EXAMPLE ONE SENIOR AECL OFFICIAL RECALLS IN RETROSPECT HAVING OVERHEARD A CONVERSATION IN TROMBAY ELECTRONICS LAB BETWEEN A RESEARCHER AND quot SOMEONE IN THE INDIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY quot CONCERNING THE ELECTRICAL CONDUCTIVITY OF FINE GOLD WIRE AS FAR BACK AS 19S8 ■SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 OTTAWA 01670 040013Z 6 CANADIAN TECHNICAL PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIAN PROGRAM ARE GENERALLY FRUSTRATED AND CHAGRINED AT THE INDIAN TEST FURTHER MANY OF THESE SAME OFFICIALS ARE CURRENTLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CANDU REACTOR SYSTEM WILL BECOME KNOWN AS A Squot DO-IT-YOURSELF BOMB KlT quOt HENCE THERE IS L'TTLE TECHNICAL RETICENCE AT PRESENT TIME VIS-A-VIS THE CANADIAN-INDIAN COOPERATIVE PROGRAM AND THE TIMING IS RIPE FOR COLLECTING TECHNICAL DETAILS EMBASSY WILL OF COURSE PROMPTLY REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT NEW DETAILS WHICH MAY BE VOLUNTEEERED WE WOULD APPRECIATE HOWEVER DEPT GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND DEPTH TO WHICH THE DEPT AND OTHER AGENCIES MAY CONSIDER IT DESIRABLE TO SEEK OUT ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON A COOPERATIVE BASIS WITH APPROPRIATE CANADIAN OFFICIALS PORTER -SEGRFP NNN insgtext sasdoo NW# 29850 Dodd 31782061