This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views India The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report Prepared By Joint Global Change Research Institute and Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest Division The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-03D April 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication —explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security The Joint Global Change Research Institute JGCRI and Battelle Pacific Northwest Division Battelle PNWD developed this assessment on the climate change impact on India through 2030 under a contract with SCITOR Corporation The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist serving as the Executive Agent for the DNI supported and funded the contract This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on India drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports and on other peerreviewed research literature and relevant reporting It includes such impact as sea level rise water availability agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns This paper addresses the extent to which regions within India are vulnerable to climate change impact The targeted time frame is to 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames The research does not draw inferences about the potential for internal or interstate conflict arising out of changes e g in water supply or in likely migration from Bangladesh such analyses will be conducted in the subsequent efforts described above This assessment also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impact on India and other countries regions 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary India is both a major greenhouse gas emitter and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to projected climate change The country is already experiencing changes in climate and the impacts of climate change including water stress heat waves and drought severe storms and flooding and associated negative consequences on health and livelihoods With a 1 2 billion but growing population and dependence on agriculture India probably will be severely impacted by continuing climate change Global climate projections given inherent uncertainties indicate several changes in India’s future climate • Global observations of melting glaciers suggest that climate change is well under way in the region with glaciers receding at an average rate of 10–15 meters per year If the rate increases flooding is likely in river valleys fed by these glaciers followed by diminished flows resulting in water scarcity for drinking and irrigation • All models show a trend of general warming in mean annual temperature as well as decreased range of diurnal temperature and enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent A warming of 0 5oC is likely over all India by the year 2030 approximately equal to the warming over the 20th century and a warming of 2-4oC by the end of this century with the maximum increase over northern India Increased warming is likely to lead to higher levels of tropospheric ozone pollution and other air pollution in the major cities • Increased precipitation⎯including monsoonal rains⎯is likely to come in the form of fewer rainy days but more days of extreme rainfall events with increasing amounts of rain in each event leading to significant flooding Drizzle-type precipitation that replenishes soil moisture is likely to decrease Most global models suggest that the Indian summer monsoons will intensify The timing may also shift causing a drying during the late summer growing season Climate models also predict an earlier snowmelt which could have a significant adverse effect on agricultural production Growing emissions of aerosols from energy production and other sources may suppress rainfall leading to drier conditions with more dust and smoke from the burning of drier vegetation affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production Uncertainties about monsoonal changes will affect farmers’ choices about which crops to plant and the timing of planting reducing productivities In addition earlier seasonal snowmelt and depleting glaciers will reduce river flow needed for irrigation The large segment of poor people including smallholder farmers and landless agricultural workers may be hardest hit requiring government relief programs on a massive scale Finally migration especially from Bangladesh may strain resources and India-Bangladesh relations The most important impacts of climate change will likely include the following • Agriculture High-input high-output agriculture will be negatively affected even as demands for food and other agricultural products rise because of an increasing population and expectations for an improved standard of living Millions of subsistence and smallholder 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views farmers will experience hardship and hunger through being less able to predict climate conditions 1 To a certain extent trade may compensate for these deficits • Water Glacier melt may yield more runoff in the short term but less in the medium and long terms More severe storms especially cyclones will cause more damage to infrastructure and livelihoods and exacerbate salt water intrusion in storm surges Changes in the timing and amount of monsoon rains will make the production of food and other agricultural products more uncertain so that even in good-weather years farmers will be more likely to make decisions leading to lower-productivity • Exacerbation of Inequality The welfare of those who are affected by climate change and who have limited means to adapt may act as a force that can change governments strain public budgets and foster unrest About one-third of Indians are extremely poor and 60 percent depend upon agriculture for their livelihoods • Energy As India searches for additional sources of energy to meet rising demand climate change mitigation efforts may constrain its use of indigenous and imported coal oil and gas while development of nuclear energy will be slow at best and likely to encounter opposition Other non-emitting technologies will require technology transfer and capacity-building • Migration India receives immigrants from a number of countries Under climate change conditions it may be flooded with many more particularly from Bangladesh Such migration may exacerbate tension between the two countries as well as putting a strain on Indian central and state governments Adaptive capacity in India varies by state geographical region and socioeconomic status Studies point to influential factors such as water availability food security human and social capital and the ability of government state and national levels to buffer its people during tough times Where adaptive capacity is low the potential is greater for impacts to result in displaced people deaths and damage from heat floods and storms and conflicts over natural resources and assets 1 The current accuracy of even current forecasts is in doubt For example the Indian Medium Range Weather Forecasting Center is not allowed to issue such forecasts in public media–that is the responsibility of the Indian Meteorological Department 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page 1 Scope Note Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Projected Regional Climate Change Climate Observations Climate Predictions Modeling Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation Seasonal Weather Patterns Monsoons Sea Level Changes Agricultural Growing Periods Climatic Events Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems Observed Changes Projected Changes The Example of Forests Impacts of Climate Change on Human Systems Energy System Economic Growth and Development Food Production and Drinking Water Supply Human Health Coping Capabilities in Facing Natural Disasters Climate Change in Neighborhoods Adaptive Capacity Strengths Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments Conclusions High-Risk Impacts Agriculture Water Energy Exacerbation of Inequality Migration 9 11 12 15 15 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 20 22 22 25 26 26 27 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 Annexes A Accuracy of Regional Models 33 B Knowledge Gaps That Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts Affecting India and India's Adaptive Capacities 37 C State District Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in India 39 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background Global climate projections given inherent uncertainties indicate several changes in India’s future climate • Global observations of melting glaciers suggest that climate change is well under way in the region with glaciers receding at an average rate of 10–15 meters per year i • If the rate of glacial melt increases flooding is likely in the river valleys fed by these glaciers followed by a diminished flow resulting in a scarcity of water for drinking and agricultural irrigation • All models show a trend of general warming in mean annual temperature as well as decreased range of diurnal temperature and enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent ii • A warming of 0 5oC is likely over all India by the year 2030 approximately equal to the warming over the 20th century and a warming of 2-4oC by the end of this century with the maximum increase over northern India iii • Increased precipitation is likely to come in the form of fewer rainy days but more days of extreme rainfall events with increasing amounts of rain in each event leading to significant flooding iv Fine precipitation drizzle-type that replenishes soil moisture is likely to decrease • Increased warming is likely to lead to higher levels of tropospheric ozone pollution and other air pollution in India’s major cities v • Most global models suggest that the Indian summer monsoons will intensify with a warming climate The timing may also shift causing a drying during the late summer growing season vi • Climate models also predict an earlier snowmelt which could have significant adverse effects on agricultural production both irrigated and non-irrigated vii • Growing emissions of aerosols from energy production and other sources may suppress rainfall leading to drier conditions with more dust and smoke from the burning of drier vegetation affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production viii In both its greenhouse gas emissions and its vulnerability to climate change India is one of the most significant countries in the world With a large and growing population India’s emissions of greenhouse gases are increasing Moreover potential climate impacts in India are severe sea level rise changes in the monsoon increased severe storms and flooding more drought and severe water stress Recently climate variability in the form of floods and cyclones has resulted in destruction of crops property and infrastructure as well as in negative impacts on human health and well-being All of these impacts set back general socio-economic development Rural dwellers’ continuing dependence upon agriculture for food and livelihood 17 5 percent of gross domestic product GDP and more than 60 percent of the labor force ix makes the Indian people particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change Nowhere is this more evident 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views than in the linkage of the annual monsoon cycle and agricultural production commonly referred to as “Indian agriculture gambles with monsoon ” The diversity and extremes of India’s climate and geography are characteristic of its society as well Religious and cultural diversity is a major feature of Indian life The strong Hindu traditions have been synthesized with and challenged by other religions notably Islam Christianity and Sikhism India has at least 300 known languages 24 of which have at least one million speakers each There are differences sometimes amounting to estrangement between the North with its history of grand-scale invasions and the relatively stable South Religious divisions became geographical divides when Muslim Pakistan 1947 then Bangladesh 1971 were created and ethnic and caste-related strife continues among groups However the connectedness of the extended family is a core feature of Indian life Together with a sense of civil society’s claims on individuals and families the extended family knits the society together and emphasizes interdependence x Diversity and extremes are evident in India’s patterns of economic development as well In this sphere two themes stand in contrast modernist democratic and technical development intensified by the economic liberalization beginning in the early 1990s and persistent poverty subsistence agriculture and caste-based discrimination Various models of development have been advanced Dasxi characterizes the country-level model thus “Rather than adopting the classic Asian strategy—exporting labor-intensive low-priced manufactured goods to the West— India has relied on its domestic market more than exports consumption more than investment services more than industry and high-tech more than low-skilled manufacturing ” Kerala’s model of human development emphasizes education health services and equality however slow economic development has somewhat tarnished this model as incomes remain low and the contributions of Keralans working abroad continue to be very much needed xii The Karnataka model focuses on technology centered in Bangalore and historically participatory local governance by Panchayat Yet Karnataka also has “enduring gender inequity and regional disparities and a visibly increasing gap between urban and rural areas ”xiii Despite substantial economic and general development progress poverty malnutrition illiteracy and inequalityxiv continue to plague India as well as serious environmental issues India has not only several Silicon Valleys but also several Nigerias xv In addition the ongoing dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir and ethnic strife e g in Assam claim national attention Conflict with Pakistan has lessened by confidence-building measures since 2002 when nuclear war was hinted at but such hints arose again after the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai although the response so far has been relatively temperate India’s broad spectrum of highly articulated national policies includes inclusive growth goals in the areas of economic development human development and environmental protection National goals are of course differentially implemented in each of India’s states which exhibit widely varying degrees of social and economic development Limited growth has occurred in the areas of fiscal policy privatization small-scale industry agriculture and labor law xvi At the national level India’s climate change policies are subsumed in its economic-industrial and human development policies which come first Local policies have had some success in limiting significant urban air pollution problems Substantial improvements in local air quality in Delhi for example have resulted from recent government programs to improve the quality of petrol and diesel fuels introduction of emissions standards for vehicles and conversion of buses and 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views three-wheelers to compressed natural gas CNG fuel—but Kolkata and other metropolitan centers experience worsening air quality with increasing combustion of fossil fuels contributing to carbon dioxide emissions Generally speaking climate change policy has been reactive rather than proactive and focused largely on the energy sector According to reports from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD and the Pew Center xvii India through normal policy developments is “making significant progress in limiting greenhouse emissions” i e from what emissions might have been through energy efficiency improvements and environmentally friendly energy development Also India is participating in the Clean Development Mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC and actively participating in the development of a proposed UNFCCC mechanism called Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD The National Clean Development Mechanism Authority NCDMA is housed in the Ministry of Environment and Forests MoEF CDM India has operated since December 2003 as the Designated National Authority DNA More aggressive measures India feels should be financed by developed nations as they lead by reducing their own emissions and engaging in clean technology transfer in accordance with the 1992 UNFCCC ratified by 192 countries Internationally India has played a key role in climate negotiations at several points India broke the impasse at the first Conference of the Parties by leading the development of a common statement that became the basis for the Berlin Mandate More recently India hosted the eighth Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2002 India bolstered by nongovernmental organizations such as the Tata Energy Research Institute TERI and the Centre for Science and Environment CSE focuses on per capita emissions low in India and high in most developed countries and on cumulative emissions also low in developing countries and high in developed countries as the indicators that developed countries should undertake mitigation first Government officials press developed nations to establish and conform to emissions reduction goals and to engage in technology transfer to developing countries CSE rebutted the second World Resources Report xviii making the distinction between “subsistence emissions” of the poor mostly in developing countries and the “luxury emissions” of the rich mostly in developed countries CSE has also characterized “green” policies dictated by the North e g debt-for-nature swaps as unwarranted interference in other nations as exacerbating inequality among nations and as likely to foster unsustainable management Projected Regional Climate Change The current climate of India is highly diverse ranging from the subfreezing Himalayan winters to the tropical climate of the south The states of Assam and West Bengal experience extremely damp rainy and humid conditions while the regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat make up part of the arid Great Indian Desert Based on precipitation and temperature India can be divided into six climatic regions the Himalayas Assam and West Bengal the Indo-Gangetic Plain the Western Ghats and coast the Deccan the interior of the Peninsula south of the Narmada River and the Eastern Ghats and coast xix The Indian Meteorological Service divides the year into four seasons two of which are characterized by monsoon conditions Winter occurs from December through February when conditions are generally relatively dry and cool March through May is considered to be 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views summer as the conditions are usually hot and dry During this period temperatures throughout non-Himalayan India reach the upper 30s°C and can reach as high as 48°C during the day in the pre-monsoon months The southwest monsoon season occurs from June through September when the predominating southwest maritime winds bring rains to most of the country One branch of the southwest monsoon known as the Arabian Sea monsoon generally breaks on the west coast early in the season and spreads across South Asia by early July The other known as the Bay of Bengal monsoon spreads over Assam during June and travels along the Indo-Gangetic Plain toward New Delhi merging with the Arabian branch to bring rains farther north The southwest monsoon provides almost 80 percent of the annual rainfall to most of the country It is critically important to agricultural production predictions of its timing are used by agronomists and farmers to determine optimal dates for plantings The northeast monsoon occurs in October and November as the southwest monsoon retreats The states of Tamil Nadu Karnataka and Kerala receive most of their rainfall from the northeast monsoon during November and December See Figure 1 for a map of Indian states and http en wikipedia org wiki File India_climatic_zone_map_en svg for climate regions Interannual climate variability is linked to a global-scale naturally occurring phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO cycle 2 ENSO can explain some of the interannual rainfall variability over the subcontinent of India and can affect the location and activity of tropical storms Analysis of observational data shows a significant correlation between ENSO and tropical circulation and precipitation such that there is a tendency for less Indian summer monsoon rainfall in El Niño years and above-normal rainfall in La Niña years However the effect is not linear The ability to accurately predict the timing and occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon is extremely important to agricultural production 2 The terms El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes of the ENSO cycle El Niño refers to the aboveaverage sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 1 Indian States Climate Observations Global observations suggest that climate change is well under way At continental regional and ocean basin scales numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed including widespread changes in precipitation amounts ocean salinity wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts heavy precipitation heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones Studies of the tropical Indo-Pacific region show unusual warmth in the 20th century and many isotope records show a trend toward warmer conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean In most multi-centennial coral series the late 20th century is shown to be warmer than any time in the past 100 to 300 years Some studies have suggested that the South Asian Indian monsoon in the drier areas of its influence northwest India has recently reversed its millennia-long orbitally driven lowfrequency trend toward less rainfall This recent reversal in monsoon rainfall also appears to coincide with a synchronous increase in inferred monsoon winds over the western Arabian Sea a change that could be related to increased summer heating over and around the Tibetan Plateau Globally estimates of the potential destructiveness of tropical storms and hurricanes show a substantial upward trend since the mid-1970s with a trend toward longer storm duration and greater storm intensity Storm activity is generally correlated with tropical sea surface temperature The distributions of global minimum and maximum temperatures have shifted to higher values consistent with overall warming xx More warm extremes imply an increased frequency of heat waves However cold extremes have warmed more than the warm extremes over the past 50 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views years Further indications include the observed trend toward fewer frost days associated with the average warming in most mid-latitude regions A prominent indication of a change in extremes is the evidence of increases in heavy precipitation events over the mid-latitudes in the past 50 years even in places where mean precipitation amounts are not increasing For very heavy precipitation events increases are reported as well but results are available for only a few areas Recent warming in sea surface temperatures SSTs is strongly evident at all latitudes although there are inter-hemispheric differences Much of the surface of the Indian Ocean has warmed since 1955 with the major exception of the 5°S to 20°S latitude belt The Southern Ocean south of 35°S in the Atlantic Indian and Pacific sectors has generally warmed The regions that exhibit cooling are mainly in the shallow equatorial areas and in some high-latitude regions In the Indian Ocean cooling occurs at subsurface depths centered on 12°S South Equatorial Current at 150 m depth and in the Pacific centered on the equator and 150 m depth In the tropical and eastern subtropical Indian Ocean north of 10°S warming in the upper 100 m is consistent with the significant warming of the sea surface from 1900 to 1999 The surface warming trend during the 1900 to 1970 period was relatively weak but increased significantly in the 1970 to 1999 period with some regions exceeding 0 2°C per decade Models suggest that upper-ocean warming in the South Indian Ocean can be attributed to a reduction in the strength of the southeast trade winds and associated decrease in the southward transport of heat from the tropics to the subtropics Local and regional changes in the character of precipitation also depend a great deal on atmospheric circulation patterns determined by El Niño the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO xxi and other patterns of variability India’s rainfall features show strong variability but little in the way of a century-scale trend even as the linear trends of rainfall decreases for 1900 to 2005 were 7 5 percent in western Africa and a similar decrease was observed when averaged over the broader southern Asia region as a whole Over much of northwestern India the 1901 to 2005 period shows precipitation increases of more than 20 percent per century but the same area shows a strong decrease in annual precipitation in the 1979 to 2005 period Very dry land areas across the globe have more than doubled in area since the 1970s an observation that has been associated with precipitation decreases related to ENSO and with subsequent increases primarily due to surface warming The tendency of the warming to be more pronounced in winter is a conspicuous feature of the observed temperature trends over India one that is likely to continue Climate Predictions Modeling While Global Circulation or Climate Models GCMs can be used to infer climate changes in specific regions it is far preferable to develop models that have a high resolution sufficient to resolve local and regional scale changes There are many challenges in reliably simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at regional and local scales At these scales natural climate variability can be relatively greater making it harder to distinguish long-term changes expected due to external radiative forcings 3 3 Radiative forcings are changes in the net irradiance at the tropopause resulting from a change in an external driver of climate change such as carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun These changes in net irradiance are expressed as watts per meter squared Wm2 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The procedure of estimating the response at local scales based on results predicted at larger scales is known as “downscaling ” The two main methods for deriving information about the local climate are 1 dynamical downscaling also referred to as “nested modeling” using “regional climate models” or “limited area models” and 2 statistical downscaling also referred to as “empirical” or “statistical-empirical” downscaling xxii Chemical composition models include the emission of gases and particles as inputs and the simulation of their chemical interactions global transport by the winds and removal by rain snow and deposition to the earth’s surface Downscaled regional scale climate models rely on global models to provide boundary conditions for the region to be modeled There are three primary approaches to numerical downscaling 1 limited-area models 2 stretched-grid models and 3 uniformly high resolution atmospheric GCMs AGCMs Regional Climate Model RCM projections for climate change in India were compared for eight models using several different IPCC scenarios at time intervals of 20 years All models show positive trends of widespread warming Figure 2 with warming more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon months compared to the rest of the year i e seasonal changes consistent with recent observations Figure 2 Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901-1950 for six Asian land regions 1906-2005 black line and as simulated red envelope by multi-model dataset MMD models Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 882 Although some models show a slight decrease in precipitation over all India during the first few decades of the study all models show increased precipitation during the monsoon season by the year 2100 especially over the northwestern parts of India an area that is currently very dry One model projects that by 2050 there will be an overall decrease in the number of rainy days over all India but an increase in the number of one-day extreme rainfall events The magnitudes and patterns of the projected rainfall changes differ significantly between models probably due to their coarse resolution The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are strongly influenced by natural variability occurring on decadal scales but the Indian Ocean appears to be exhibiting a steady warming Natural 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views variability from ENSO for example in ocean-atmosphere dynamics can lead to important differences in regional rates of surface-ocean warming that affect the atmospheric circulation and hence warming over land surfaces New modeling efforts have shown improvements in climate forecasts in the southern hemisphere when the incidence of the Indian Ocean Dipole IOD is included xxiii The IOD occurs periodically when there is a cold water upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean during which the eastern half of the ocean becomes much cooler than the western half The recent IPCC assessment report suggests that in the future circulation associated with the monsoon may slow down but the moisture in the air may increase However the representation of the observed monsoon maximum rainfall along the west coast of India northern parts of Bay of Bengal and north India is poor in many models A comparison of four different GCM models applied to the Indian subcontinentxxiv found a significant spread in the summer monsoon precipitation anomalies Soil moisture was determined to be an important parameter in model projections Most models project increased precipitation during the monsoon season particularly over the northwestern parts of India with differences in the magnitudes of the increase from one model to the other West central India shows maximum overall increase in rainfall Extremes in both temperature and precipitation events are likely to increase out to 2030 Including sulfate aerosols in the models reduces the regional climate sensitivity but the greenhouse warming still dominates the changes at the larger scale and longer time scale Models that include emissions of short-lived radiatively active gases and particles suggest that future climate changes could significantly increase maximum ozone levels in already polluted regions Projected growth of emissions of radiatively active gases and particles in the models suggest that they may significantly influence the climate even out to year 2100 xxv Atmospheric brown clouds plumes of polluted air moving from the Asian continent out over the Pacific and Indian Ocean may cause changes in the monsoon circulation and reduce summer monsoon precipitation in parts of South and East Asia Global models that are unable to include small-scale spatial geographical features and distortions of albedo feedbacks are also unable to project precipitation over the Himalayas It is expected that the net effect of a warming climate will be an increase in the rainfall associated with the monsoon Several models suggest that throughout Asia there will be an overall decrease in the December-February precipitation an increase in the remaining months and more intense rainfall over larger areas in the future Stabilization emissions scenarios assume future emissions based on an internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces such as population socioeconomic development and technological change and their key relationships These emissions are constrained so that the resulting atmospheric concentrations of the substance level off at a predetermined value in the future For example if one assumes the global CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 450 parts per million ppm the current value is about 380 ppm the climate models can simulate the climate consistent with the emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived species of this scenario The climate model predictions can be used to assess specific regional impacts at this stabilization level 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views A recent study of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project showed that the models’ response to a 1 percent yr increase in CO2 includes a substantial warming of tropical storm basin SSTs enhanced upper-tropospheric warming relative to the surface warming and little change in lower-tropospheric relative humidity The study included climate change scenarios from nine different global coupled climate models as inputs to an idealized hurricane model The results demonstrate that there is a significant sensitivity in the models to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization A more detailed discussion of the ability of the models to project regional climate changes can be found in Annex A xxvi Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation Current projections of climate change from the latest IPCC Assessmentxxvii suggest increases in temperatures precipitation rates and the intensity of tropical storms over the Indian Ocean Most models either assume a doubling of CO2 and their results can be compared using this assumption or the models are run to the year 2100 and the results of the climate projections are assessed for that date The IPCC has not included numerical model results specifically for the year 2030 Kumar et al xxviii have modeled climate changes on the Indian subcontinent for intermediate scenarios at 2020 and 2050 however only the results for the final scenario for 2080 have been published An earlier studyxxix used eight global models to project temperature and precipitation changes over all India per decade for three different emission scenarios Although the tables presented in this reference are useful the uncertainties especially in the prediction of precipitation changes are great Most AGCMS predict general warming and enhanced rainfall over India with these changes becoming particularly significant by 2040 xxx Kumar et al use the model Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies PRECIS developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to yield projections for climate change during intermediate time scales every 10 years until 2100 these projections can be averaged over model results to estimate climate change in 2030 xxxi The models project an average temperature increase over all India by the year 2030 of around 0 5oC an increase comparable with that that has occurred over the globe during the 20th century The maximum temperature increase i e annual mean temperature change is expected to occur over northern India with a secondary maximum over the eastern peninsula By the year 2100 the temperature increase could be on the order of 2-4oC with a maximum increase in the northern region of 4oC A regional model recently developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IITM projected that averaged over the country India could face a temperature increase of 4°C by 2100 However the model predicts that because of the longer time scales for system-wide changes in atmosphere-ocean interactions a delay in the increase in monsoon rainfall will occur xxxii resulting in drought in some areas Seasonal Weather Patterns Monsoons Monsoon rains account for most of India’s annual rainfall Monsoons are generally defined as tropical and subtropical seasonal reversals in both the surface winds and associated precipitation The strongest monsoons occur over the tropics of southern and eastern Asia and northern Australia as well as parts of western and central Africa Rainfall is the most important monsoon variable because the associated latent heat release drives atmospheric circulations and because 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views rainfall plays a critical role in the global hydrological cycle and is vital to socioeconomic impacts Most global models suggest that the Indian monsoons will intensify with a warming climate xxxiii Since the continental-scale land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become larger in summer and smaller in winter one would expect that in the future the summer monsoon will be stronger and the winter monsoon will be weaker than they are presently However some models predict that a pronounced warming over the tropics will result in a weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulations due to a reduction in the meridional thermal gradients between the Asian continent and adjacent oceans The global monsoon system embraces an overturning circulation that is intimately associated with the seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation over all major continents and adjacent oceans The Asian monsoon can be divided into the East Asian and the South Asian or Indian monsoon systems Although the Indian monsoons recur each year their irregularity at a range of time scales from weeks to years depends on feedback from the ocean in ways that are not fully understood Intra-seasonal variability is associated with the Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillation MISO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation MJO which are long-lasting weather patterns that evolve in a systematic way for periods of four to eight weeks On an interannual and decadal scale statistical methods have shown that while there are periods of high correlation between ENSO and monsoon variation there are decades in which little or no association is apparent The influence of ENSO on the position and strength of the subtropical high in the North Pacific influences both typhoons and other damaging heavy rainfall events and has been implicated in observed inter-decadal variations in typhoon tracks This suggests that the spatial structure of warming in the Pacific will be relevant for changes For South Asia the monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones generated over the Indian seas modulate the monsoon anomalies For East Asia the monsoonal circulations are strengthened by extratropical cyclones energized in the lee of the Tibetan Plateau and by the strong temperature gradient along the East Coast Although attention is often focused on the frequency or number of storms the intensity size and duration are much more important From an observational perspective then key issues are the tropical storm formation regions the frequency intensity duration and tracks of tropical storms and associated precipitation All of these can be influenced by climate teleconnections xxxiv especially those such as the Indian dipole oscillation IOD and the Southern Annular Mode SAM Index Annular modes are hemispheric scale patterns of climate variability xxxv SAM is linked to variations in temperatures over Antarctica sea-surface temperatures throughout the Southern Ocean and the distribution of sea-ice around the perimeter of Antarctica New evidence indicates that increased aerosol loading4 in the atmosphere may also have strong impacts on monsoon evolution through changes in local heating of the atmosphere and land surface Polluted air can also have an effect on local circulation patterns Heating of a lofted dust layer in the Tibetan Plateau could act as an elevated heat pump to strengthen the Asian summer monsoon circulation and cause a local increase in precipitation despite the global reduction of evaporation that accompanies the aerosol-induced reduction in shortwave radiation 4 Aerosols are very small particles that influence the climate in several ways They are both emitted e g via dust storms or from smokestacks and form in the atmosphere 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views at the surface The dust-induced thermal contrast changes between the Eurasian continent and the surrounding oceans are postulated to trigger or modulate a rapidly varying or unstable Asian winter monsoon circulation with a feedback to reduce the dust emission from its sources Sea Level Changes A significant fraction of sea level rise is due to thermal expansion of a warmed ocean as much as 0 3 to 0 8 m over the past century according to the 2007 IPCC report Geographic patterns of sea level rise are due mainly to changes in the distribution of heat and salinity in the ocean resulting in changes in ocean circulation Precise satellite measurements since 1993 show that the largest sea level rise since 1992 has taken place in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans with the potential for significant impacts on the east coast of India The 2004 Indian National Communication to the UNFCCC states that sea level rise is highest in the Gulf of Kutch Gujarat and on the coast of West Bengal xxxvi There is a large interannual variability in sea level rise associated with patterns of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability including ENSO and the NAO Projected patterns of sea level rise display more similarity across models than in past assessments Common features include a narrow band of pronounced sea level rise stretching across the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans Sea level is projected to rise between the present 1980-1999 and the end of this century 2090-2099 by 0 35 m 0 23 to 0 47 m Due to ocean density and circulation changes the distribution will not be uniform Agricultural Growing Periods Many regions of India already face water scarcity Productive agricultural regions in the North depend on the spring snowmelt to replenish regional water supplies Climate models predict an earlier snowmelt which could have a significant effect on agricultural production especially if the levels of moisture in the soils are reduced during the growing season The retreat of snow and ice cover in and around the Himalayas is already having a drying effect on these regions A recent study of the melting Naimona'ny glacier in the Himalayas which provides water to the Indus and Brahmaputra Rivers shows that the glacier has melted so much that the exposed surface of the glacier dated to 1944 xxxvii A study of glaciers in the region shows that they are now receding at an average rate of 10-15 meters per year xxxviii Himalayan glaciers collect water during the monsoon season and release it during the dry season providing irrigation water for crops If the rate of glacial melt increases flooding is likely to occur in the river valleys fed by the glaciers Later as the river flows decrease to below previous rates many people may be left without sufficient drinking water or water for irrigating crops Decreasing trends in evapotranspiration during recent decades are evident in records even though such records are sparse This is likely due to decreased sunshine duration related to increases in air pollution atmospheric aerosols and increases in cloud cover An accelerating trend in sulfate deposition has been observed in Himalayan glaciers and is probably due to increased sulfur dioxide emissions from the increasing energy demand throughout Asia The concentration of sulfate deposited in the glaciers in the past 50 years exceeded that for any prior 50-year period in the last millennium xxxix A model to predict changes in river flows due to future glacial melt from climate change was developed by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in the United Kingdom Under different 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views climate scenarios the model predicts that in the upper Indus there will be an initial increase of between 14 percent and 90 percent in mean flows compared to baseline over the first few decades of the 100-year incremental scenario runs By decade 10 river flows will decrease between –30 percent and –90 percent of baseline xl During the Indian Ocean Experimentxli that focused on emissions of human-generated aerosols from the Indian sub-continent local forcing at the surface was observed to be significantly stronger than that at the top of the atmosphere These results indicate that absorption of solar radiation by aerosols primarily black carbon in the atmospheric column is of great significance It has been suggested that absorbing aerosols may have masked up to 50 percent of the surface warming in South Asia from the global increase in greenhouse gases In cases where aerosols act to suppress rainfall the second aerosol indirect effect drier conditions tend to induce more dust and smoke due to the burning of drier vegetation affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production However more research is needed to understand the combined effects of aerosols and dusts which may influence the monsoon circulation and hydrological cycle in different ways Climatic Events Extremes are the infrequent events at the high and low end of the range of values of a particular variable The probability of occurrence of values in this range is called a probability distribution function PDF that for some variables is shaped similarly to a “Normal” or “Gaussian” curve the familiar bell-shaped curve People affected by an extreme weather event e g the heavy rainfall in Mumbai in July 2005 wonder whether climate changes due to human influences are responsible It is difficult to attribute any individual event to a change in the climate In most regions instrumental records of variability typically extend only over about 150 years so there is limited information to characterize how extreme rare climatic events could be Further several factors usually need to combine to produce an extreme event so linking a particular extreme event to a single specific cause is problematic In some cases it may be possible to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to such changes in the probability of occurrence of extremes As the climate changes and SSTs continue to increase the conditions that cause tropical storms to form are no longer the same Higher SSTs are generally accompanied by increased water vapor in the lower troposphere thus the moist static energy that fuels convection and thunderstorms is also increased Hurricanes and typhoons currently form from pre-existing disturbances only where SSTs exceed about 26°C so as SSTs have increased the areas over which such storms can form are potentially expanded However many other environmental factors also influence the generation and tracks of disturbances The 2007 IPCC assessment concluded that there was a risk of increased temperature extremes in India with more extreme heat episodes in a future climate This result has been confirmed and expanded in more recent studies Future increases in temperature extremes are projected to follow increases in mean temperature over most of the world except where surface properties e g snow cover or soil moisture change There is still much debate over whether there is likely to be an increase in tropical cyclone intensity Changes in tropical storm and hurricane frequency and intensity are often masked by large natural variability ENSO greatly affects the location and activity of tropical storms around the 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views world Globally estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show a substantial upward trend since the mid-1970s with a trend toward longer storm duration and greater storm intensity and this activity is strongly correlated with tropical SSTs One study found a large increase in numbers and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories four and five globally since 1970 even as the total number of cyclones and cyclone days decreased slightly in most basins The largest increase was in the North Pacific Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans Improved models ones that prescribed convection constraints based on the relative humidity were able to simulate the variability and extremes of rainfall quite well over most of India when compared to satellite-derived rainfall but had a tendency to overestimate heavy rainfall events in central India Several recent studies have addressed possible future changes in heat waves and found that in a future climate heat waves are expected to be more intense longer-lasting and more frequent Based on an eight-member multi-model ensemble heat waves are simulated to have increased for the latter part of the 20th century and are projected to increase globally and over most regions Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems Observed Changes An analysis of seasonal and annual surface air temperatures for India using data for 1881–2001 for 25 or more stations shows a significant annual mean warming of 0 68°C per hundred years Most of the warming occurs in the post-monsoon and winter seasons The monsoon temperatures do not show a significant trend in most parts of the country except for a significant negative trend over northwest India Maximum daytime temperatures show more of a trend than minimum nighttime temperatures xlii in contrast to general expectation Water supply is changing Almost 67 percent of the glaciers in the Himalayan mountain ranges the source of major rivers in India have retreated in the past decade xliii For India the IPCCxliv reports increased frequency of hot days and multiple-day heat waves in the past century with more deaths attributable to heat stress in recent years Consecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000 led to a sharp decline in water tables in the northwest and 2000-2002 droughts caused crop failures leading to mass starvation and impacts on 11 million people in Orissa Management decisions about natural hazards can cause conflicts In 2002 under drought conditions in Andhra Pradesh the state released dam water for electricity generation but not for irrigation Poor farmers responded to such policies by smashing the pumps of their richer neighbors Quarrels over water rights between states can be bitter too Tamil Nadu claimed that its neighboring state Karnataka violated agreements about sharing water from the Cauvery River xlv Bangalore is facing acute water scarcity as it attempts to meet the drinking water needs of 7 million people in the city xlvi Public health is affected by currently experienced climate variability and change in the forms of heat and flooding Between 1980 and 1998 18 heat waves were reported in India one in 1988 affected ten states and caused 1 300 deaths Heat waves in Orissa in the 1998-2000 period caused an estimated 2 120 deaths and heat waves in 2003 in Andhra Pradesh caused more than 3 000 deaths xlvii Flood-related increases in diarrheal disease have also been reported in India xlviii 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Observed trends in the mean sea level along the Indian coast indicate a rising trend of about 1 cm per decade which is close to that recorded in other parts of the globe Today coastal regions in India and Bangladesh are subjected to stronger wind and flood damage than in the past because of stronger storm surges associated with tropical storms xlix Projected Changes The Example of Forests Based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios a study by Ravindranath et al 2006 l investigated the impacts of climate change on Indian forests into the year 2085 under two emission scenarios A2 740 ppm CO2 and B2 575 ppm CO2 Globally A2 is the more extreme scenario representing a growing human population and slower and inequitable economic development whereby atmospheric CO2 concentration is projected to double by 2050 and is likely to increase to 740 ppm by 2085 B2 represents moderate population growth intermediate levels of economic development adoption of environmentally sound technologies and greater social equity Using the B2 scenario projections and Forest Service of India’s categories of forests a pattern emerges colder forests are subject to a larger increase of about 3°C while the Western Ghat evergreen forests become warmer by only about 2 4°C on average—compared to the national average of 2 9°C For the A2 scenario the magnitudes of the impacts are larger Most of the forests show an increase of about 4°C with the northern temperate forests undergoing a temperature increase of around 4 6°C Western Ghats evergreen semi-evergreen and mangrove forest types show the least impacts under both A2 and B2 scenarios Even with a conservative temperature increase of 1–2°C most ecosystems and landscapes will be impacted through changes in species composition productivity and biodiversity Impacts to nearly 200 000 forest villages—naturally heavily dependant on forest resources—will be innumerable Impacts to the country as a whole are also projected by way of economically important forest types such as Tectona grandis Shorea robusta bamboo upland hardwoods and pine A clear possibility of a large-scale shift in forest types in India is projected for the period 2070 to 2100 with adverse implications for biodiversity and a nearly 70 percent increase in net primary productivity of forest types with implications for biomass production and timber markets India’s forests are already changing because of socioeconomic pressures virgin forest areas are less dense and monocultures and plantations are preferred to native species These conditions will be greatly exacerbated by climate change Specifically biodiversity is likely to be reduced under the projected climate scenarios representing changes or shifts in forest or vegetation types forest dieback during the transient phase and different response changes of species to climate changes even when there is no change in forest type li Impacts of Climate Change on Human Systems Energy System Primary energy demand in 2005 was roughly equivalent to that of Japan—but of course with many more people India’s per capita demand remains at about one-tenth of the OECD average However Indian demand is growing at a fast pace 3 2 percent per year 2000-2005 lii The International Energy Agency IEA liii projects India’s primary energy demand to more than double by 2030 in a reference scenario i e no policies to slow demand this projection is attributable largely to a projected annual growth rate for GDP of 6 3 percent The primary 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views energy demand growth areas will be industrial mostly steel and transport although two- and three-wheelers will still be over half of vehicle stock In this scenario India will become the world’s third-largest carbon dioxide emitter by 2030 although per-capita emissions will still be comparatively low Inequality is such an issue in the energy sector that the IEA devoted a chapter to it “Focus on Energy Poverty ” liv Approximately 412 million people are still without access to electricity in India The use of fuelwood and dung for cooking and heating causes more than 400 000 premature deaths annually mostly of women and children Income disparities account for most of the energy access disparities but other barriers include “unreliable energy service delivery ineffective and regressive subsidies gender discrimination in policy planning inadequate information about the health impacts of current fuels and technologies and administrative hurdles in getting connections ” lv “Energy poverty” is one aspect of a concern in India that its booming economic conditions have benefited the “haves” but not the “have-nots ” India’s current electrical system runs mostly on domestic coal 82 7 percent fossil fuel 14 5 percent hydropower and 3 4 percent nuclear lvi The transportation sector runs mostly on imported oil domestic production is 785 000 bbl day against a demand of 2 45 million bbl day 2004 estimate lvii OECD IEA characterized the overall energy system as fueled “largely by coal and combined renewables and waste with much smaller but growing shares of oil gas nuclear and hydro ”lviii Future increases in energy production will likely include the following • Domestic coal—although deposits are located at some distance from population centers and the coal is of low quality Higher quality coal is imported for steel making India is the seventh-largest steel producer in the world lix Coal gasification could also be used to make diesel fuel lx However the use of coal contributes to anthropogenic climate change and bad air quality so pressures to reduce greenhouse gas and other emissions could limit both options for coal use in India unless carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies could be implemented lxi • Imported oil and gas—with associated issues of investing in oil fields exploitation rights and refineries in Myanmar Sudan Iraq Russia Vietnam Venezuela and Libya lxii as well as raising the problematic prospect of a gas pipeline running through either Iran and Pakistan or Turkmenistan Afghanistan and Pakistan • Nuclear power—in part as a fruit of the 2005 “strategic partnership” with the United States raising concerns about nuclear nonproliferation • Renewable sources—such as biomass fuels waste and purpose-grown crops and hydropower Residential use of biomass fuelwood dung and agricultural waste is projected to change from a current 54 percent share to 12 percent in urban households but a smaller 92-to-79 percent decline in rural households still means that the absolute amount of biomass used will increase Biofuel crops like other crops will be affected by climate change lxiii hydropower like other water uses will be subject to changes in precipitation under climate change • Domestic gas reserves—with 2002 and subsequent discoveries in the Krishna-Godavari basin in Andhra Pradesh on the east coast and more discoveries expected lxiv 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In all of these areas advanced technologies will be essential to increasing production and meeting environmental regulations including those related to climate change mitigation and adaptation The Indian Government has introduced clean coal technologies like coal washing and the use of cleaner and less carbon-intensive fuels e g liquefied petroleum gas LPG for automobiles and motor spirit-ethanol blending projects in selected states lxv Economic Growth and Development Since 1990 India as a country has moved aggressively from a centrally planned economy to private ownership of businesses and trade liberalization It has “developed a diversified industrial base and sophisticated financial sector Its software subsector—one of the most dynamic in the world—has experienced a sustained and rapid growth ”lxvi Over the past 25 years the annual growth rate has been 6 percent accelerating to a five-year annual average of 8 8 percent lxvii investment at 30 percent of GDP and booming foreign direct investment India has made substantial strides in fostering human capital by reducing infant mortality increasing life expectancy and improving literacy The central democratic government provides stability and some curbs to unbridled free market-ism or barriers to growth in an alternative characterization and hordes of entrepreneurs provide the impetus for growth On the positive side India’s democracy results in equity slightly higher than the global average The dependency ratio the percentage of the population dependent on the percentage of the population in the work force is relatively high indicating that many people are available for the work force supporting relatively few people other than themselves However the poor condition of people engaged in agriculture and or born into lower castes reduces the robustness of the overall economy Climate change adding to existing problems of the agricultural system may worsen conditions for the large poor segment of the population enough to severely tax the economic and industrial resources of the central and state governments Thus the impacts of climate change are likely to be felt first and foremost in the agricultural sector and associated water availability with many people affected by lower food productivity e g hunger malnutrition and its consequences for education and productive economic life and burdens on the central and state governments in dealing with smallholders and landless workers who will require assistance Educational and employment inequalities will exacerbate these conditions Some or many of these workers will migrate to urban areas placing stress on cities The need to add to or replace infrastructure affected by climate change e g in the energy and transportation sectors as well as irrigation systems will present additional economic costs Finally migrants particularly from Bangladesh will affect India’s economy by providing competition for low cost labor Food Production and Drinking Water Supply Agriculture and water are inseparable issues as almost all the water use in India is for irrigation to support high productivity in agriculture Thus both the monsoon onset and active break phase mean a great deal to the agriculture sector Research indicates that the monsoon active break phase is related to a tropical phenomenon called the Madden Julian Oscillation MJO which has a periodicity of 30-70 days with a predictability of 20-30 days Predicting the MJO has 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views important implications to predicting subseasonal5 rainfall variability If farmers sow too early and the crop needs water when the monsoon break phase occurs the whole crop is lost At the national level India has abundant water resources for agriculture and drinking as well as for cooking and sanitation uses India withdraws 34 percent of its available water annually lxviii However at state and local levels there are wide-ranging differences overexploitation is already problematic and will likely become worse under climate change conditions Increasing temperatures and increased seasonal variability will likely cause Himalayan glaciers to melt more and more quickly also leading to increasing danger from floods as glacial lakes burst out of their natural bounds Changes over decades will include less flow in rivers fed today by snow and ice with impacts on hydropower urban water supply and agriculture lxix Although there is clear evidence of de-glaciation across the Himalayas the effect on river flows is likely to be substantially different in different areas The extent of the changes is very uncertain because as Sengupta puts it “River flow data is so scant and recent that it is impossible for scientists to predict how the current rates of glacial retreat will affect river volume ”lxx There are major regions including many of the most highly productive agricultural and industrial regions of India where water scarcity is already felt in day-to-day life The retreats of snow and ice cover are important for several local climates especially those near the Himalayas The drying effect of an earlier spring snowmelt and more generally the earlier reduction in soil moisture is a continuing concern Already 15 percent of aquifers are in critical condition a figure that is projected to increase to a “frightening” 60 percent by the year 2030 lxxi Especially in important agricultural areas that have benefited from the Green Revolution irrigation has led to exploitation of groundwater resources—e g 94 percent in Punjab 84 percent in Haryana 60 percent in Tamil Nadu and 51 percent in Rajasthan lxxii Farmers who borrow to dig bore wells for crop irrigation may find that when groundwater tables decline they cannot repay their loans some probably will commit suicide Groundwater depletion has been accelerated by the provision of free or subsidized electricity for agriculture subsidized rates on irrigation pumps some state-level free power policies and supports for agricultural consumers lxxiii In many places northwest India as well as Pakistan irrigation has resulted in not only overexploitation of water resources but also increased soil salinity waterlogging and siltation of river basins These problems have been intensified by declining soil fertility increasing pest damage and decreasing genetic diversity in crops lxxiv Environmental and economic leaderslxxv have called for a second Green Revolution as rates of growth in agricultural production have slowed This would place more pressure on water resources for irrigation To partially compensate for increased water demand the efficiency of irrigation systems can be improved And in recent years Water Users Associations WUAs have formed to conduct participatory irrigation management lxxvi these may promote conservation and water use efficiency Rainfed agriculture 65 percent of cropped land lxxvii will experience climate change impacts too Without irrigation smallholder farmers and landless agricultural workers will likely face household food shortages and loss of livelihoods requiring government assistance or even international aid as well as pressures on cities to accommodate migrants from rural areas 5 “Subseasonal” refers to any timescale shorter than a season 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Cultural Willingness to Change Even if scientists knew unequivocally how climate change will manifest itself traditional knowledge and practices would need to be accounted for and integrated into responses Change is never as simple as providing information that immediately alters people’s worldviews and ways of doing things Selvaraju et al 2004 explored approaches to help smallholder farmers to benefit from seasonal forecasting Traditional knowledge in Avinashi southern India includes such rules of thumb as “If it rains on the 10th of Adi July … the rainfall in the succeeding season will be good” and “If the breeze is towards the east during July the winter monsoon will be good if towards south the summer monsoon will be successful ”lxxviii Researchers found that farmers could use their knowledge about on-farm conditions in combination with probabilistic forecasts of rainfall derived from Southern Oscillation Index data to better meet their production objectives The most important and potentially largest-yielding decisions involve crop choice sowing season and planting density However these decisions can be the riskiest coming at the beginning of the growth cycle and “communicating the risk and opportunities of alternative management options is a major challenge ” lxxix The final decisions always rest with the farmers so participatory approaches are essential for this kind of cultural shift The Indo-Gangetic Plain the “bread basket” of the region comprises both highly modernized and traditional agriculture The western region the Punjab in Pakistan and India is characterized by high productivity high investment in infrastructure and widespread use of fertilizers and groundwater irrigation The eastern region northeastern India and Bangladesh exhibits low productivity with poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water high risk of flooding and chronic poverty Rising population and climate change will have acombined impact in each of these regions lxxx Changes and uncertainties in water supply especially monsoonal changes will affect irrigated and rainfed crops alike During the “wheat panic” of 2007 India purchased nearly 800 000 tonnes of wheat to buffer its reserves of this essential grain lxxxi India sees keeping a buffer stock as a necessity in a country that although theoretically food sufficient has historically experienced shortages Climate is one of the key components influencing agricultural production in small Indian farming systems accounting for two-thirds of the variation in production ENSO can explain some of the interannual rainfall variability that affects overall production ENSO-based climate forecasts may be used to aid vulnerable smallholder agriculture production systems in India see box above However unless projections of future climate change are able to account for how ENSO may change in a warming climate these forecasts may not be able to prevent the significant agricultural losses that are possible Over the longer term most studies project decreased yields in non-irrigated wheat and in rice and a loss in farm-level net revenue between 9 and 25 percent for a temperature increase of 2 0– 3 5°C lxxxii Considering a range of equilibrium climate change scenarios which project a temperature rise of 2 5°C to 4 9°C for India Kumar and Parikh 2001 estimated that the impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture would be significant across the scenarios lxxxiii They estimated that with a temperature change of 2°C and an accompanying precipitation change of 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 7 percent farm-level total net revenue would fall by 9 percent whereas with a temperature increase of 3 5°C and precipitation change of 15 percent the fall in farm-level total net revenue would be nearly 25 percent Aggarwal et al explored agricultural adaptations to global environmental change in the Indo-Gangetic Plan concluding that “new information and tools are needed to analyze the trade-offs between the joint socioeconomic and environmental goals and possible adaptation strategies ”lxxxiv Livestock too will be affected by climate change India has the largest livestock population in the world lxxxv with animals used as milk producers especially cattle and buffalo draft animals nutrient recycling manure and seeding and as household capital particularly in landless households Heat stress lowers production and reproduction reduces feed and fodder and increases conditions favorable to disease For example outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in cattle are explained 52 percent in Andhra and 84 percent in Maharashtra by temperature humidity and rainfall mastitis increases in dairy animals during hot and humid weather which also is associated with increases in flies and cattle ticks lxxxvi Water availability will be a crucial factor in the continued viability of both crops and livestock but management is diffuse Under the Indian constitution water is the responsibility of the states not the central government Thus water management institutions at the state level have the biggest say in planning and allocation lxxxvii At the national level at least five ministries Water Resources Environment and Forests Rural Development Power and Urban Development and Poverty Alleviation are concerned with water but no organizational mechanism exists to coordinate water management among these ministries Moreover efforts to adapt to more variability in water flows by constructing dams and catchments may increase tensions with Bangladesh and Pakistan While freshwater resources will be affected the marine environment is and will be changing too Fisheries stocks may collapse or move in the already-contested waters of the Indian Ocean potentially affecting livelihoods and food supply for millions of people The international ocean management regimes will require renegotiation lxxxviii Human Health Currently India’s public health care system produces relatively poor health outcomes lxxxix For India Healthy Life Expectancy HALE which includes adjustment for time spent in poor health is 53 years for children born in 2003 xc Despite perceived strengths of the national-level public health system good expertise written guidelines and standards and network of research and training institutions implementation and monitoring of services are weak xci Funding for control of communicable diseases has been deemphasized since the 1980s several infectious diseases such a tuberculosis and malaria have reemerged as public health care concerns xcii In India unplanned urbanization has contributed to the spread of Plasmodium vivax malaria and dengue xciii Climate change impacts on health include an expected increase in communicable diseases such as malaria Malaria is projected to move to higher latitudes and altitudes in India xciv An assessment in India projected shifts in the geographical range and duration of the transmission window for Plasmodium falciparum and Pvivax malaria xcv 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Coping Capabilities in Facing Natural Disasters India is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and people live on marginal lands or in coastal and delataic cities where they are at greater risk Floods regional droughts cyclones and earthquakes affect millions of Indians xcvi In the area of disaster mitigation much has been done to document conditions leading to vulnerability For example a Flood Atlas of India and a Vulnerability Atlas of India 1997 revised 2006 have been produced the latter assesses the vulnerability of housing and infrastructure to earthquakes cyclones and floods to improve zoning and construction In India as in the United States the primary responsibility for responding to disasters lies at the state level The Disaster Management Act of 2005 set up the Natural Disaster Management Division in the Ministry of Home Affairs and proclaimed a new emphasis on disaster prevention The United Nations Development Programxcvii has developed a plan for disaster preparedness and response that attempts to integrate government and other activities Many Indian states have limited resources and lack their own disaster management plans Because of these factors India's disaster response record has been mixed with delayed response lack of early warning systems and resources to undertake measures like mass evacuation inadequate coordination among various government departments failure to keep essential stores e g sandbags medicines and life-saving equipment on hand and inadequate coordination with the Army and other service organizations as well as donors As an example of disaster response in 2007 the New York Times reportedxcviii a United Nations official as saying that about 2 800 people in India Bangladesh Nepal and Pakistan had died in monsoonal floods “the worst in living memory” from drowning waterborne illnesses snakebites or hunger For survivors the land damage meant there would be no near-term agricultural work for millions of landless laborers leaving them to rely on the sporadic support of aid agencies and government relief organizations The condition of the 31 million people affected in India was covered internationally but was not featured either in New Delhi newspapers or on national news channels Infrastructure is affected by climate hazards as well For instance 14 percent of the annual repair and maintenance budget of the newly built 760 km Konkan Railway in India is spent repairing damage to track bridges and cuttings due to extreme weather events such as raininduced landslides In spite of preventive targeting of vulnerable stretches of the line operations must be suspended for an average of seven days each rainy season because of such damage xcix Systematic disaster preparedness at the community level has helped reduce death tolls for instance new warning systems and evacuation procedures in Andhra Pradesh after 1977 reduced deaths from coastal tropical cyclones to 10 percent of the 1977 total by 1997 c Climate Change in the Neighborhood The most obvious regional climate change impacts will likely concern water The Indo-Gangetic Plain stretches from Pakistan’s coast across northern India to almost the whole of Bangladesh The Indus River drains in Pakistan the Ganges in India and Bangladesh Rivers fed by Himalayan snow and ice provide irrigation water for this important agricultural area India has water agreements with both neighboring countries and alleged violations of these agreements have caused international disputes 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Bangladesh in particular depends upon India to allow sufficient fresh water to flow into Bangladesh for every water use and for preventing salt water intrusion Sea level rise and management decisions have reduced freshwater flows and increased salt-water intrusion in the Indus delta and Bangladesh This adversely affects the Sundarbans the largest mangrove forest in the world which is shared by India and Bangladesh In addition flooding has displaced thousands to millions of Bangladeshis who are subject to outbreaks of xenophobic violence if they resettle in India Also potentially important are changes in Arabian Sea e g loss of fresh water input due to channeling of Indus river water to agriculture in Pakistan leading to biogeochemical changes in the Western Arabian Sea the impacts of aerosols the “Atmospheric Brown Cloud” which may diminish winter precipitation in western India and in Pakistan and changes in the carbon cycle in the Bay of Bengal Adaptive Capacity The impacts of climate change will be felt differentially depending upon how well a society can cope with or adapt to climate change that is its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCC as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences ”ci Thus adaptive capacity is distinguished from both climate change impacts and the degree to which those impacts affect the systems that are in place as discussed in the previous sections Although the specific determinants or “drivers” of adaptive capacity are a matter of debate among researchers there is broad agreement that economic human and environmental resources are essential elements Some components of this adaptive capacity are near term such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by e g flooding or droughts Other components include a high enough level of education so that people can change livelihoods a quantity of unmanaged land that can be brought into food production and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change For instance Yohe and Tolcii identified eight qualitative “determinants of adaptive capacity ” many of which are societal in character although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing 1 The range of available technological options for adaptation 2 The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3 The structure of critical institutions the derivative allocation of decision-making authority and the decision criteria that would be employed 4 The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5 The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6 The system’s access to risk-spreading processes 7 The ability of decisionmakers to manage information the processes by which these decisionmakers determine which information is credible and the credibility of the decisionmakers themselves 8 The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Researchers have only recently taken on the challenge of assessing adaptive capacity in a comparative quantitative framework A global comparative studyciii of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM—see box below Adaptive capacity as assessed in this study consists of seven variables in three sectors chosen to represent societal characteristics important to a country’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change Methodological Description of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The vulnerability index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be negatively affected by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is composed of one to three proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birthrate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk due to sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is comprised of the geometric means of participating values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of the adaptive capacity and sensitivity • Human and Civic Resources — Dependency ratio proxy for social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting basic needs — Literacy proxy for human capital generally especially the ability to adapt by changing employment • Economic Capacity — GDP market per capita proxy for economic well-being in general especially access to markets technology and other resources useful for adaptation — Income equity proxy for the potential of all people in a country or state to participate in the economic benefits available • Environmental Capacity 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views — Percent of land that is unmanaged proxy for potential for economic use or increased crop productivity and for ecosystem health e g ability of plants and animals to migrate under climate change — Sulfur dioxide per unit land area proxy for air quality and through sulfur deposition other stresses on ecosystems — Population density proxy for population pressures on ecosystems e g adequate food production for a given population Adaptive capacity for a sample of 11 countries from the 160-country study is shown in Figure 3 base year of 2005 There is a wide range of adaptive capacity represented by these countries India ranks low both in the sample and overall • Russia ranks 32nd and Libya 34th in the highest quartile • Indonesia ranks 45th Belize 48th Mexico 59th and China 75th in the second quartile • The Philippines ranks 91st and India 119th in the third quartile • Morocco ranks 136th and Haiti 156th in the lowest quartile Any country-level analysis must take into account the comparative ranking of the country Ranking of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India Morocco Haiti 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 3 Sample of 11 countries’ rankings of adaptive capacity 2005 Figure 4 shows the contribution of each variable to the overall ranking slight differences occurring because of the methodology see box on page 25 India ranks low in comparison with Russia and China because of lower human resources dependency ratio and literacy levels than China and both lower human resources and environmental capacity non-managed land emissions per total land area and population density than Russia 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya GDP per capita equity index Indonesia Belize dependency ratio literacy levels non-managed land % emssions total land Mexico China Philippines India population density Morocco Haiti 0 200 400 600 Figure 4 Variables’ contributions to adaptive capacity rankings Figure 5 shows projected adaptive capacity growth over time for the 11-country sample Projections are made for two scenarios rates of growth are based on the IPCC’s A1 scenario in its Special Report on Emissions Scenariosciv Both scenarios feature moderate population growth and a tendency toward convergence in affluence with market-based solutions rapid technological progress and improving human welfare The scenarios used in this study differ in the rate of economic growth one modeling high-and-fast economic growth the other delayed growth In the high-growth scenario China overtakes Russia in adaptive capacity but India retains its relatively low position throughout the entire period in both scenarios Strengths Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments Even comparative measures of adaptive capacity only allow analysts to ask improved more focused questions about area or local conditions that contribute to or reduce resilience It is likely for instance that for particular places e g states in India important variables or domains are not included For agricultural regions this might include the extent of irrigation for urban areas better measures of education could be important The measure of unmanaged land does not account for the potential usefulness of that land However comparative measures such as these can be an important first step toward determining where to direct resources—for further analysis or additional factors 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity in the Delayed Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines 40 India Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Adaptive Capacity in the High Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Figure 5 Projections of adaptive capacity for 11 countries 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Conclusions High Risk Impacts Agriculture There are impacts to high-input high-output agriculture as a result of various changes in the Indian climate which will affect productivities negatively even as demand for food and other agricultural products rises because of both rising population and standard of living On the other hand millions of subsistence and smallholder farmers will experience immediate hardship and hunger because they will be less able to predict climate well enough to make adequate decisions about when to sow what to grow and how to time inputs Water Glacier melt may yield more runoff in the short term but less in the medium and long terms More severe storms especially cyclones will cause more damage to infrastructure and livelihoods and exacerbate saltwater intrusion6 in storm surges Changes in the timing and amount of monsoon rain will make the production of food and other agricultural products more uncertain so that even in good-weather years farmers will be more likely to make decisions resulting in lower-productivity outcomes Energy As India searches for additional sources of energy to meet rising demand climate change mitigation efforts may constrain its use of indigenous and imported coal oil and gas while development of nuclear energy will be slow at best and likely to encounter opposition Other non-emitting technologies will require technology transfer and capacity-building Exacerbation of Inequality In a country so prone to natural hazards the welfare of those who are affected and who have limited means to recover will loom large under climate change as a force that can change governments strain public budgets and foster unrest The proportions are significant about a quarter of the population lives on less than $1 a day at least one-third face poverty discrimination often scheduled castes or tribes and Muslims and lack of educational opportunities and 60 percent are dependent upon agriculture for their livelihoods Those who lack financial resources and adequate education and who depend on agriculture for sustenance and livelihood will be disadvantaged under climate change because they have few choices but continued dependence on shrinking or uncertain resources India is attempting to reduce inequality by using quotas in government jobs and educational institutions cv the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 2005 also guarantees that at least one member of a rural household will have 200 days of work per year and India’s 11th five-year plan adopts the policy of sectoral spatial and socioeconomic growth that includes all people Migration India receives immigrants from a number of countries For instance since 1960 the government has hosted approximately 110 000 de facto refugees from Tibet The government considers Tibetans and Sri Lankans to be refugees and provides assistance to them However the government regards most other groups especially Bangladeshis as economic migrants and does not provide them with aid cvi 6 Saltwater intrusion is the process in which saltwater flows inland into fresh water because saltwater is denser 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models This is an excerpt from IPCC 2007 Chapter 11 Regional models see IPCC 2007 for references 7 11 4 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate Regional mean temperature and precipitation in the multi-model dataset MMD models show biases when compared with observed climate Table 1 The multi-model mean shows a cold and wet bias in all regions and in most seasons and the bias of the annual average temperature ranges from –2 5°C over the Tibetan Plateau TIB to –1 4°C over South Asia SAS For most regions there is a 6°C to 7°C range in the biases from individual models with a reduced bias range in Southeast Asia SEA of 3 6°C The median bias in precipitation is small less than 10 percent in Southeast Asia South Asia and Central Asia CAS larger in northern Asia and East Asia NAS and EAS around 23 percent and very large in the Tibetan Plateau 110 percent Annual biases in individual models are in the range of –50 to 60 percent across all regions except the Tibetan Plateau where some models simulate annual precipitation 2 5 times that observed and even larger seasonal biases occur in winter and spring These global models clearly have significant problems over Tibet due to the difficulty in simulating the effects of the dramatic topographic relief as well as the distorted albedo feedbacks due to extensive snow cover However with only limited observations available predominantly in valleys large errors in temperature and significant underestimates of precipitation are likely South Asia Over South Asia the summer is dominated by the southwest monsoon which spans the four months from June to September and dominates the seasonal cycles of the climatic parameters While most models simulate the general migration of seasonal tropical rain the observed maximum rainfall during the monsoon season along the west coast of India the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining northeast India is poorly simulated by many models Lal and Harasawa 2001 Rupa Kumar and Ashrit 2001 Rupa Kumar et al 2002 2003 This is likely linked to the coarse resolution of the models as the heavy rainfall over these regions is generally associated with the steep orography However the simulated annual cycles in South Asian mean precipitation and surface air temperature are reasonably close to the observed The MMD models capture the general regional features of the monsoon such as the low rainfall amounts coupled with high variability over northwest India However there has not yet been sufficient analysis of whether finer details of regional significance are simulated more adequately in the MMD models Recent work indicates that time-slice experiments using an AGCM with prescribed SSTs as opposed to a fully coupled system are not able to accurately capture the South Asian monsoon response Douville 2005 Thus neglecting the short-term SST feedback and variability seems to have a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming complicating the regional downscaling problem However May 2004a notes that the high-resolution about 7 Some references in this section have been changed to be internally consistent with this document and other references have been removed to avoid confusion 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 1 5 degrees European Centre-Hamburg ECHAM4 GCM simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall intensity as well as frequency of wet days in good agreement with the observations Global Precipitation Climatology Project Huffman et al 2001 Three-member ensembles of baseline simulations 1961–1990 from an RCM PRECIS at 50 km resolution have confirmed that significant improvements in the representation of regional processes over South Asia can be achieved Kumar 2006 For example the steep gradients in monsoon precipitation with a maximum along the western coast of India are well represented in PRECIS East Asia Simulated temperatures in most MMD models are too low in all seasons over East Asia the mean cold bias is largest in winter and smallest in summer Zhou and Yu 2006 show that over China the models perform reasonably in simulating the dominant variations of the mean temperature over China but not the spatial distributions The annual precipitation over East Asia exceeds the observed estimates in almost all models and the rain band in the mid-latitudes is shifted northward in seasons other than summer This bias in the placement of the rains in central China also occurred in earlier models e g Zhou and Li 2002 Gao et al 2004 In winter the area-mean precipitation is overestimated by more than 50 percent on average due to strengthening of the rain band associated with extratropical systems over South China The bias and inter-model differences in precipitation are smallest in summer but the northward shift of this rain band results in large discrepancies in summer rainfall distribution over Korea Japan and adjacent seas Kusunoki et al 2006 find that the simulation of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu rains in the East Asian monsoon is improved substantially with increasing horizontal resolution Confirming the importance of resolution RCMs simulate more realistic climatic characteristics over East Asia than AOGCMs whether driven by re-analyses or by AOGCMs e g Ding et al 2003 Oh et al 2004 Fu et al 2005 Zhang et al 2005a Ding et al 2006 Sasaki et al 2006b Several studies reproduce the fine-scale climatology of small areas using a multiply nested RCM Im et al 2006 and a very-high resolution 5 km RCM Yasunaga et al 2006 Gao et al 2006b report that simulated East Asia large-scale precipitation patterns are significantly affected by resolution particularly during the mid- to late-monsoon months when smaller-scale convective processes dominate Southeast Asia The broad-scale spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in December January February DJF and June July August JJA averaged across the MMD models compares well with observations Rajendran et al 2004 examine the simulation of current climate in the MRI coupled model Large-scale features were well simulated but errors in the timing of peak rainfall over Indochina were considered a major shortcoming Collier et al 2004 assess the performance of the CCSM3 model in simulating tropical precipitation forced by observed SST Simulation was good over the maritime continent compared to the simulation for other tropical regions Wang et al 2004 assess the ability of 11 AGCMs in the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulation forced with observed SST variations They found that the models’ ability to simulate observed interannual rainfall variations was poorest in the Southeast Asian portion of the domain Since current AOGCMs continue to have some significant shortcomings in 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views representing ENSO variability the difficulty of projecting changes in ENSO-related rainfall in this region is compounded Rainfall simulation across the region at finer scales has been examined in some studies The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO stretched-grid Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM at 80-km resolution shows reasonable precipitation simulation in JJA although Indochina tended to be drier than in the observations McGregor and Nguyen 2003 Aldrian et al 2004a conducted a number of simulations with the Max-Planck Institute MPI regional model for an Indonesian domain forced by reanalyses and by the ECHAM4 GCM The model was able to represent the spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall It was found that a resolution of at least 50 km was required to simulate rainfall seasonality correctly over Sulawesi The formulation of a coupled regional model improves regional rainfall simulation over the oceans Aldrian et al 2004b Arakawa and Kitoh 2005 demonstrate an accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over Indonesia with an AGCM of 20-km horizontal resolution Central Asia and Tibet Due to the complex topography and the associated mesoscale weather systems of the highaltitude and arid areas GCMs typically perform poorly over the region Importantly the GCMs and to a lesser extent RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over arid and semi-arid areas in the north e g Small et al 1999 Gao et al 2001 Elguindi and Giorgi 2006 Over Tibet the few available RCM simulations generally exhibit improved performance in the simulation of present-day climate compared to GCMs e g Gao et al 2003a b Zhang et al 2005b For example the GCM simulation of Gao et al 2003a overestimated the precipitation over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau by a factor of five to six while in an RCM nested in this model the overestimate was less than a factor of two 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Table 1 Biases in present-day 1980-1999 surface air temperature and precipitation in the MMD simulations The simulated temperatures are compared with the HadCRUT2v Jones et al 2001 data set and precipitation with the CMAP update of Xie and Arkin 1997 data set Temperature biases are in °C and precipitation biases in percent Shown are the minimum median 50 percent and maximum biases among the models as well as the first 25 percent and third 75 percent quartile values Colors indicate regions seasons for which at least 75 percent of the models have the same sign of bias with orange indicating positive and light violet negative temperature biases and light blue positive and light brown negative precipitation biases 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex B Knowledge Gaps That Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts Affecting India and India’s Adaptive Capacities To increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of India’s projected climate changes and their impacts and the country’s adaptive capacity the following gaps would need to be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes One gap of particular interest is the lack of mediumterm 20-30 years projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas Research agendas in these areas can be found in for instance the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program http www climatescience gov and the National Academy of Sciences e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 11175#toc Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected • In social science research scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors in vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity – much less their interactions and evolution Again research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decision-making abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important factors are unaccounted for in research scientists know what some of them are but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain Modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal and the only factor modeled was deforestation This assumption of course made the models inadequate for their purposes In another example ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests e g the pine bark beetle • Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about motivation intent and behavior is a serious gap Moreover the long time scale of climate-related research introduces uncertainties about social behavior in the future as well as weaknesses in scientists’ ability to predict the social conditions under which mitigation and adaptation will be undertaken 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Overall research about climate change impacts on India has been undertaken piecemeal discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications considered separately from physical effects This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energyeconomic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex C State District Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in India Note The original source data used for derivation of state and district adaptive capacity was from 1990-1991 sources and may not reflect current circumstances Results from the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM see box on page 25 for description cvii Vulnerability here includes both adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity i e potential negative impacts of climate change As in other quantitative rankings India is ranked as more vulnerable than most countries to climate change in a VRIM-assisted study of 160 countries cviii India ranks low in the third quartile The largest contributions to current vulnerability of India in the VRIM analysis are food security as represented by total protein intake in the sensitivity aspect and water availability also in the sensitivity aspect Rapid expansion in the use of groundwater primarily for irrigation has contributed significantly to agricultural and overall economic development in India but in many arid and hard-rock zones increases in overdraft areas and associated waterquality problems are emerging Specific comparative levels of adaptive capacity are shown in Figure 6 Adaptive capacity is lowest along the Indo-Gangetic Plain higher in the northwest and south When sensitivity and adaptive capacity are combined into an overall comparative measure of vulnerability small mountainous northern inland states tend to be ranked higher than coastal states and only five states are ranked higher than the world average Interestingly most of the variability in state-level sensitivity proxies i e proxies that represent how large climate impacts are results from variability in settlement and food sensitivity i e social and economic factors On the other hand most of the variability in state-level proxies for coping and adaptive capacity results from environmental rather than economic or human resource factors These results imply that social policies would be more likely to be effective in reducing sensitivity while environmental protection policies would likely be more effective in increasing coping and adaptive capacity Many analyses attempt to measure these kinds of differences by using GDP per capita or some income measure as a summary proxy However this study shows no meaningful correlation between net domestic product NDP per capita in states and vulnerability of a state to climate impacts Differences other than economic ones are of great importance For example literacy rates in the states range from 44 to 91 percent life expectancy from 58 to 70 years There are great disparities in natural resources and climate hazards among Indian states 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 6 Coping and adaptive capacity comparative levels of India’s states average of four periods 1990-2035 Source based on Antoinette L Brenkert and Elizabeth L Malone “Modeling vulnerability and resilience to climate change a case study of India and Indian states ” Climatic Change 72 2005 57-102 Adaptive Capacity of Indian Districts O’Brien et al cix performed a detailed analysis of adaptive capacity at the district level in India likely because of the focus on agriculture and the difference in variables measured the results differ from the VRIM analysis To measure adaptive capacity the researchers used the following indicators • Biophysical indicators soil conditions the depth of the soil cover and severity of soil degradation and groundwater availability based on estimates of the total amount of replenishable groundwater available annually • Human and social capital adult literacy rates degree of gender equity in a district and the presence of alternative economic activities an indicator of the ability of farmers in a district to shift to other economic activities • Infrastructure irrigation rates and quality of infrastructure measured using the Infrastructure Development Index of the Center for Monitoring of Indian Economy The capacity index map shows higher degrees of adaptive capacity in districts located along the Indo-Gangetic Plains except Bihar and lower adaptive capacity in the interior portions of the country particularly in the states of Bihar Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views O’Brien et al measured sensitivity under exposure to climate change They found the areas with high to very high climate sensitivity for agriculture to be located in the semi-arid regions of the country including major parts of the states of Rajasthan Gujarat Punjab Haryana Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh Under the HadRM2 the Hadley Centre’s Regional Model scenario district climate sensitivity noticeably increased in Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra Vulnerability in India was assessed by summing a district-level index of adaptive capacity with an index of climate sensitivity under exposure The districts with the highest lowest sensitivity were not necessarily the most least vulnerable For example most districts in southern Bihar exhibited only medium sensitivity to climate change yet were still highly vulnerable as the result of low adaptive capacity By contrast most districts in northern Punjab showed very high sensitivity to climate change yet were found to be only moderately vulnerable as the result of high adaptive capacity Last the research team added factors representing exposure to globalization Liberalization of agricultural trade may provide new opportunities for some Indian farmers to engage in production for export market but also may expose many other farmers to competition from imported agricultural products One example is the liberalization of trade in edible oils and oilseeds which led to a crash in domestic oilseed prices in the late 1990s due to imports of inexpensive Malaysian palm oil For farmers in southern India particularly in the state of Andhra Pradesh this price crash perhaps exacerbated by such factors as the inability to afford imported hybrid seeds proved devastating and is associated with the beginning of a long wave of suicides by bankrupt farmers O’Brien et al focused on exposure to import competition with the result that high vulnerability was shown in most of Rajasthan and Karnataka as well as in substantial portions of Bihar Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Gujarat and Assam Notable areas of low vulnerability occurred along the Indo-Gangetic plains Districts mostly concentrated in Rajasthan Gujarat Madhya Pradesh as well as in southern Bihar and western Maharashtra may be interpreted as areas of “double exposure ” where globalization and climate change are likely to pose simultaneous challenges to the agricultural sector Several short case studies complement the broader-scale research The case studies showed the effect that institutional barriers or support systems have on local-level vulnerability this is not visible in the district-national profiles In the cases of Jhalawar Rajasthan and Anatapur Andhra Pradesh institutional barriers leave farmers who are “double exposed” poorly equipped to adapt to either of the stressors let alone both simultaneously In Chitradurga Karnataka on the other hand institutional support appears to facilitate adaptation to both climatic change and globalization However these supports tend to disproportionately benefit the district’s larger farmers 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views i World Wildlife Fund WWF “An Overview of Glaciers Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal India and China ” WWF Nepal Programme March 2005 ii Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 iii P R Shukla ed 2003 Climate Change and India Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Orient Blackswan ISBN 8173714711 9788173714719 Chapter 3 iv Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 v Keqin Duan L G Thompson and T Yao “A 1000 year history of atmospheric sulfate concentrations in southern Asia as recorded by a Himalayan ice core ” Geophysical Research Letters 34 2007 L01810 doi 10 1029 2006GL027456 vi Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 K Ruosteenoja T R Carter K Jylhä and H Tuomenvirta “Future climate in world regions an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios ” The Finnish Environment 644 Helsinki Finnish Environment Institute 2003 vii Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 viii Climate Change Science Program CCSP “Climate projections based on emissions scenarios for long-lived and short-lived radiatively active gases and aerosols ” eds H Levy II D T Shindell A Gilliland M D Schwarzkopf L W Horowitz Washington D C Department of Commerce NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 2008 http www climatescience gov Library sap sap3-2 final-report sap3-2-final-report-all pdf ix Central Intelligence Agency The World Factbook s v “India ” January 22 2008 https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook geos in html Robert W Fogel “Capitalism democracy in 2040 ” Daedalus Summer 2007 87-95 x M J Gannon and Associates Understanding Global Cultures Thousand Oaks CA Sage 1994 xi Gurcharan Das “The India model” Foreign Affairs 85 no 4 2006 2-16 xii Govindan Parayil “The ‘Kerala Model’ of development development and sustainability in the third world ” Third World Quarterly 17 no 5 1996 941-957 xiii Gopal Kadekodi Ravi Kanbur and Vijayendra Rao “Governance and the ‘Karnataka Model of Development ’” Economic and Political Weekly 24 February 2007 xiv World Bank “Country Brief South Asia Region SAR –India ” 2002 http www Worldbank org Somini Sengupta “Education push yields little for India’s poor ” New York Times 17 January 2008 xv Ashutosh Varshney “India’s democratic challenge ” Foreign Affairs 86 no 2 2006 93-106 xvi Ashutosh Varshney “India’s democratic challenge ” Foreign Affairs 86 no 2 2006 93-106 xvii J K Parikh and K Parikh Climate Change India’s Perceptions Positions Policies and Possibilities Paris Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 2002 W Chandler R Schaeffer Z Dadi P R Shukla F Tudela O Davidson and S Alpan-Atamer “Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries Brazil China India Mexico South Africa and Turkey ” Washington D C Pew Center on Global Climate Change 2002 xviii A Agarwal and S Narain Toward a Green World Should Global Environmental Management Be Built on Legal Conventions or Human Rights New Delhi Centre for Science and Environment 1992 xix Ghats are the two coastal mountain ranges that converge in southern India separated by the Deccan Plateau xx Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xxi For more information on the NAO see http transcom colostate edu Data index html 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxii Rasmus Benestad and Mauri Pelto “Regional climate change assessment ” in Encyclopedia of Earth Ed Cutler J Cleveland Washington D C Environmental Information Coalition National Council for Science and the Environment 2008 first published in the Encyclopedia of Earth July 2 2008 last revised August 28 2008 xxiii T N Krishnamurti C M Kishtawal Timothy E LaRow David R Bachiochi Zhan Zhang C Eric Williford Sulochana Gadgil and Sajani Surendran “Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble ” Science 285 no 5433 1999 1548-1550 xxiv H Douville F Chauvin and H Broqua “Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons Part I mean monsoon and daily precipitation ” Journal of Climate 14 June 2001 11 xxv CCSP “Climate projections based on emissions scenarios for long-lived and short-lived radiatively active gases and aerosols ” eds H Levy II D T Shindell A Gilliland M D Schwarzkopf L W Horowitz Washington D C Department of Commerce NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 2008 http www climatescience gov Library sap sap3-2 final-report sap3-2-final-report-all pdf xxvi Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xxvii Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xxviii Rupa K Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar S K Patwardhan P K Mishra J V Revadekar K Kamala and G B Pant “High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century ” Current Science 90 no 3 10 February 2006 Special Section Climate Change and India xxix Rupa K Kumar K Krishna Kumar V Prasanna K Kamala N R Deshpande S K Patwardhan and G B Pant “Future climate scenarios ” in Climate Change and India Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation eds P R Shukla K Subodh K Sharma N H Ravindranath Amit Garg and Sumana Bhattacharya Hyderabad Universities Press 2003 69–127 xxx P R Shukla ed 2003 Climate Change and India Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Orient Blackswan ISBN 8173714711 9788173714719 Chapter 3 xxxi P R Shukla ed 2003 Climate Change and India Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Orient Blackswan ISBN 8173714711 9788173714719 Chapter 3 xxxii Rupa K Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar S K Patwardhan P K Mishra J V Revadekar K Kamala and G B Pant “High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century ” Current Science 90 no 3 10 February 2006 Special Section Climate Change and India xxxiii Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 K Ruosteenoja T R Carter K Jylhä and H Tuomenvirta “Future climate in world regions an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios ” The Finnish Environment 644 Helsinki Finnish Environment Institute 2003 xxxiv Teleconnections are statistically significant correlations between weather events that occur at different places on the Earth xxxv See http transcom colostate edu Data index html for more information on annular modes xxxvi India’s First National Communication to the Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC 2004 http unfccc int resource docs natc indnc1 pdf xxxvii L G Thompson T Yao E Mosley-Thompson M E Davis K A Henderson and P N Lin “A high resolution millennial record of the South Asian Monsoon from Himalayan ice cores ” Science 289 2006 1916-1919 xxxviii World Wildlife Fund WWF “An Overview of Glaciers Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal India and China ” WWF Nepal Programme March 2005 xxxix Keqin Duan L G Thompson and T Yao “A 1000 year history of atmospheric sulfate concentrations in southern Asia as recorded by a Himalayan ice core ” Geophysical Research Letters 34 2007 L01810 doi 10 1029 2006GL027456 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xl “FRIEND - A Global Perspective 2002-2006 ” in Chapter 8 “Hindu Kush Himalaya ” FRIEND – Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data Koblenz United Nations Education Scientific and Cultural Organization International Hydrological Programme VI 2006 xli V Ramanathan P J Crutzen J Lelieveld et al “Indian Ocean Experiment An integrated analysis of the climate forcing and effects of the great Indo-Asian haze ” Journal of Geophysical Research 106 2001 D22 28 371–28 398 xlii M Lal “Global climate change-India’s monsoon and its variability vulnerability and adaptation issues ” Report on Country Studies Vulnerability and Adaptation Work Assignment 402 – Task 11 under Stratus Consulting Contract 68-W6-0055 Washington D C Environmental Protection Agency 2001 xliii M Lal “Global climate change-India’s monsoon and its variability vulnerability and adaptation issues ” Report on Country Studies Vulnerability and Adaptation Work Assignment 402 – Task 11 under Stratus Consulting Contract 68-W6-0055 Washington D C Environmental Protection Agency 2001 xliv Rex Victor Cruz Hideo Harasawa Murari Lal and Shaohong Wu “Asia ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlv The Economist “Water in India nor any drop to drink 24 August 2002 364 8287 31–32 xlvi C Nanjundaiah State of Environment Report for Bangalore City-2008 Center for Economic Studies and Policy Bangalore forthcoming xlvii Ulisses Confalonieri and Bettina Menne “Human health ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlviii Ulisses Confalonieri and Bettina Menne “Human health ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlix M Lal “Global climate change-India’s monsoon and its variability vulnerability and adaptation issues ” Report on Country Studies Vulnerability and Adaptation Work Assignment 402 – Task 11 under Stratus Consulting Contract 68-W6-0055 Washington D C Environmental Protection Agency 2001 l N H Ravindranath N V Joshi R Sukumar and A Saxena “Impact of climate change on forests in India ” Current Science 90 2006 354-361 li N H Ravindranath N V Joshi R Sukumar and A Saxena “Impact of climate change on forests in India ” Current Science 90 2006 354-361 lii International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 liii International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 liv International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 lv International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 lvi Central Intelligence Agency The World Factbook s v “India ” January 22 2008 https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook geos in html lvii Central Intelligence Agency The World Factbook s v “India ” January 22 2008 https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook geos in html lviii Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development International Energy Agency Statistics on the web 2006 http www iea org statist indux htm lix International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 lx Anshu Bharadwaj Rahul Tongia and V S Arunchalam “Scoping technology options for India’s oil security Part II—coal to liquids and bio-diesel ” Current Science 92 no 9 2007b 1234-1241 lxi See the first assessment of this potential in International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas Programme A Regional Assessment of the Potential for CO2 Storage in the Indian Subcontinent Paris IEA Report 2008 2 2008 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxii Ingolf Kiesow and Nicklas Norling The Rise of India Problems and Opportunities Washington D C Johns Hopkins University-SAIS 2007 lxiii Anshu Bharadwaj Rahul Tongia and V S Arunchalam “Scoping technology options for India’s oil security Part I—ethanol for petrol ” Current Science 92 no 8 2007a 1071-1077 lxiv International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris International Energy Agency 2007 lxv Sumana Bhattacharya C Sharma R C Dhiman and A P Mitra “Climate change and malaria in India ” Current Science 90 no 3 2006 369-375 lxvi World Bank “Country Brief South Asia Region SAR –India ” 2002 http www Worldbank org lxvii The Economist “Suddenly vulnerable ” 13 December 2008 15 lxviii World Wildlife Fund “An Overview of Glaciers Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal India and China ” WWF Nepal Programme March 2005 Food and Agriculture Organization AQUASTAT http www fao org nr water aquastat main index stm lxix Somini Sengupta “Glaciers in retreat ” New York Times 17 July 2007 Roger F McLean S K Sinha M Q Mirza and Murari Lal “Tropical Asia ” in The Regional Impacts of Climate Change An Assessment of Vulnerability eds Robert T Watson Marufu C Zinyowera and Richard H Moss Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1998 lxx Somini Sengupta “Glaciers in retreat ” New York Times July 17 2007 lxxi John Briscoe and R P S Malike India's Water Economy Bracing for a Turbulent Future New York Oxford 2006 lxxii Ulka Kelkar “Indian agriculture growth sustainability and vulnerability ” in Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty Change and Surprise Adaptive Policymaking for Agriculture and Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change International Institute for Sustainable Development and The Energy and Resources Institute 2006 http www iisd org pdf 2006 climate_designing_policies pdf lxxiii Ulka Kelkar “Indian agriculture growth sustainability and vulnerability ” in Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty Change and Surprise Adaptive Policymaking for Agriculture and Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change International Institute for Sustainable Development and The Energy and Resources Institute 2006 http www iisd org pdf 2006 climate_designing_policies pdf lxxiv P K Aggarwal P K Joshi J S I Ingram and R K Gupta “Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change key information needs to improve policy formulation ” Environmental Science and Policy 7 2004 487-498 lxxv See for example the Food and Agriculture Organization’s press release “FAO Director-General appeals for second Green Revolution Vast effort needed to feed billions and safeguard environment ” September 13 2006 http www fao org newsroom en news 2006 1000392 index html lxxvi Ulka Kelkar “Indian agriculture growth sustainability and vulnerability ” in Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty Change and Surprise Adaptive Policymaking for Agriculture and Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change International Institute for Sustainable Development and The Energy and Resources Institute 2006 http www iisd org pdf 2006 climate_designing_policies pdf lxxvii Roger F McLean S K Sinha M Q Mirza and Murari Lal “Tropical Asia ” in The Regional Impacts of Climate Change An Assessment of Vulnerability eds Robert T Watson Marufu C Zinyowera and Richard H Moss Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1998 lxxviii Ramasamy Selvaraju Holger Meinke and James Hansen “Approaches allowing smallholder farmers in India to benefit from seasonal climate forecasting ” in New Directions for a Diverse Planet Proceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress Brisbane 26 September to 1 October 2004 lxxix Ramasamy Selvaraju Holger Meinke and James Hansen “Approaches allowing smallholder farmers in India to benefit from seasonal climate forecasting ” in New Directions for a Diverse Planet Proceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress Brisbane 26 September to 1 October 2004 lxxx Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS Indo-Gangetic Plan Science Plan and Implementation Strategy ” Report 5 Oxford GECAFS 2008 http www gecafs org publications documents IGPSPISGECAFSRpt5 pdf lxxxi Chidanand Rajghatta “India sparks wheat price rise ” Times of India 8 September 2007 lxxxii Tata Energy Research Institute 2002 lxxxiii K S Kavi Kumar and Jyoti Parikh “Indian agriculture and climate change sensitivity ” Global Environmental Change 11 no 2 2001 147-154 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxxxiv P K Aggarwal P K Joshi J S I Ingram and R K Gupta “Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change key information needs to improve policy formulation ” Environmental Science and Policy 7 2004 487-498 lxxxv Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics FAOSTAT http www fao org statistics census wcares 2000indiaweb pdf lxxxvi Smita Sirohi and Axel Michaelowa “Sufferer and cause Indian livestock and climate change ” Climatic Change 85 285-298 lxxxvii Ulka Kelkar “Indian agriculture growth sustainability and vulnerability ” in Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty Change and Surprise Adaptive Policymaking for Agriculture and Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change International Institute for Sustainable Development and The Energy and Resources Institute 2006 http www iisd org pdf 2006 climate_designing_policies pdf lxxxviii Nick Mabey “Delivering climate security international security responses to a climate-changed world ” Whitehall Papers April 2008 1-7 http dx doi org 10 1080 2681300802012886 lxxxix Monica Das Gupta “India’s Public Health System How Well Does It Function at the National Level ” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3447 Washington D C World Bank 2004 xc World Health Organization “WHO Statistical Information System” 2008 http www3 who int whosis hale hale cfm path whosis hale langauge English xci Monica Das Gupta “India’s Public Health System How Well Does It Function at the National Level ” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3447 Washington D C World Bank 2004 xcii Sai Ma and Neraj Sood A Comparison of the Health Systems in China and India Santa Monica CA RAND Corporation 2008 http www rand org xciii Ulisses Confalonieri and Bettina Menne “Human health ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xciv Ulisses Confalonieri and Bettina Menne “Human health ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xcv Sumana Bhattacharya C Sharma R C Dhiman and A P Mitra “Climate change and malaria in India ” Current Science 90 no 3 2006 369-375 Ulisses Confalonieri and Bettina Menne “Human health ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xcvi United States Agency for International Development “USAID India our work strategic objective 3 disaster management ” 2005 http www usaid gov in our_work strategy strategy6 htm xcvii United Nations Development Program India Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan Version 45i 2007 http data undp org in dmweb pp UNDP_IDPRpercent2045percent20Versionweb pdf xcviii Amelia Gentleman “After the deluge the reality of deprivation ” New York Times 22 August 2007 xcix Tom Wilbanks and Patricia Romero Lankao “Industry settlement and society ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 c Tom Wilbanks and Patricia Romero Lankao “Industry settlement and society ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 Peter Winchester “Cyclone mitigation resource allocation and post-disaster reconstruction in south India lessons from two decades of research ” Disasters 24 2000 18-37 ci Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Glossary ” Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cii G Yohe and R Tol “Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity ” Global Environmental Change 12 2002 25-40 ciii E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press civ N Nakicenovic and R Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 cv U S Department of State “India country reports of human rights practices – 2006 ” 2007 http www state gov g drl rls hrrpt 2006 78871 htm cvi U S Department of State “India country reports of human rights practices – 2006 ” 2007 http www state gov g drl rls hrrpt 2006 78871 htm cvii Antoinette L Brenkert and Elizabeth L Malone “Modeling vulnerability and resilience to climate change a case study of India and Indian states ” Climatic Change 72 2005 57-102 Elizabeth L Malone and Antoinette L Brenkert “Uncertainty in resilience to climate change in India and Indian states ” Climatic Change 91 2008 451-476 cviii Elizabeth L Malone and Antoinette L Brenkert “Vulnerability Sensitivity and Coping Adaptive Capacity Worldwide ” in The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications eds M Ruth and M Ibarraran Edward Elgar in press cix K O’Brien R Leichenko U Kelkar H Venema G Aandahl H Tompkins A Javed S Bhadwal S Barg L Nygaard and J West “Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors climate change and globalization in India ” Global Environmental Change 14 2004 303-313 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views China The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report Prepared By Joint Global Change Research Institute and Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest Division The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-02D April 2009 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication —explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security The Joint Global Change Research Institute JGCRI and Battelle Pacific Northwest Division Battelle PNWD developed this assessment on the climate change impact on China through 2030 under a contract with SCITOR Corporation The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist serving as the Executive Agent for the DNI supported and funded the contract This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on China drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports and on other peerreviewed research literature and relevant reporting It includes such impact as sea level rise water availability agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns This paper addresses the extent to which regions within China are vulnerable to climate change impact The targeted time frame is to 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames This assessment also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impact on China and other countries regions 1 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Executive Summary China is well known for its size it has the world’s largest population the third largest land area the fourth nominal or second purchase power parity largest economy and is the second largest primary energy producer and consumer and the largest carbon dioxide emitter 1 As a major global player in human-caused climate change China is vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change • Over the past century 1908 to 2007 the average temperature in China has risen by 1 1 degree Celsius • Although no significant trend was observed in nationally averaged precipitation amounts over the past 50 years a drying trend was observed in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain • Over the past 30 years the sea level and sea surface temperature have increased 90 millimeters mm and 0 9oC respectively • China has experienced more extreme events floods droughts storms in recent years than ever before The extreme weather events have caused direct economic losses of $25 to 37 5 billion in China per year One regional climate model projects a country-averaged annual mean temperature increase of 1 3-2 1°C by 2020 2 3-3 3°C by 2050 another regional climate model projects a 1-1 6°C temperature increment and a 3 3-3 7 percent precipitation increase between 2011 and 2020 depending on the emissions scenario By 2030 sea level rise along coastal areas could be 0 01-0 16 meters increasing the possibility of flooding and intensified storm surges leading to degradation of wetlands mangroves and coral reefs Agricultural growing seasons will lengthen and the risk of extreme heat episodes will increase Storms may intensify but warming temperatures are likely to enhance drying in already-dry areas so both droughts and floods may increase Compared to other countries China ranks lower in resilience to climate change than Brazil Turkey and Mexico but higher than India China ranks high in food security human health and human resources Projections of resilience show China gaining capacity quickly and outranking Brazil Turkey and Mexico by 2020 In recent years the Chinese Government has paid increasing attention to the negative consequences of climate change In 2007 China laid out its roadmap to battle climate change in China’s National Climate Change Program which was followed by a white paper in 2008 titled China’s Actions and Policies on Climate Change Both documents reviewed China’s past achievements and presented its future plans in the following areas 1 Office of Energy Markets and End Use of the Energy Information Administration “World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels 1980-2006 ” International Energy Annual 2006 Table H 1co2 December 8 2008 http www eia doe gov pub international iealf tableh1co2 xls accessed January 15 2009 3 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views • Strengthening government management in vulnerable sectors such as water resources agriculture forestry and coastal regions • Building early-warning and monitoring networks • Raising public awareness • Enhancing R D investment • Employing international resources China is thus demonstrating its determination to tackle climate change issues as an important domestic affair However some prominent climate impacts have seemingly not caught the government’s attention such as the underrated and underpublicized water crisis as well as the underdeveloped social protection system In addition China must demonstrate an ability to implement its ambitious plans The negative consequences of climate change may expose the following sectors to high risk • Water Scarcity of natural water resources fast-growing urbanization and industrialization severe water pollution cheap water prices and the adverse impacts of climate change on water sources may lead to a water crisis in China The drought regions in northern China may be prone to social unrest caused by conflicts about water rights and distribution between social groups and between sectors The expected South-to-North Water Diversion Project may alleviate the water stress of some northern regions but it will not provide a full solution and has in any case been delayed 2 The forthcoming water crisis may impact China’s social economic and political stability to a great extent • Coastal Regions Due to their flat and low landscape China’s coastal regions the engine of China’s economic achievement are highly vulnerable to storm flood and sea-level rise The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as typhoons has threatened economic development at local regional and national levels China has been actively developing early warning systems and related monitoring systems and improving the design standards of sea dikes and port docks These efforts may help buffer some risk of natural weather extreme events • Social and Political Uncertainties Facing a large unemployed population China’s underdeveloped social protection system is less and less able to protect those who need it Rising expenses in health care education and housing have been financial burdens for the average Chinese family The export-oriented economy is vulnerable to a global financial crisis The increasing dependence on foreign oil exposes China to an unstable world oil market The adverse impacts of climate change will add extra pressure to existing social and resource such as energy stresses Establishing an effective social protection system should be ranked high on the Chinese Government’s long to-do list 2 E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 4 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Contents Scope Note Page 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of China Climate Observations Climate Predictions Modeling Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation Projections of Sea Level Changes Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems Water Resources Sea Level Rise Forest Permafrost and Glaciers Deserts Impacts of Climate Change on Human Systems Agriculture Coastal Regions Energy Disasters and Hazards Adaptive Capacity Water Resources Coastal Management Agriculture Forestry Early Warning System and Monitory Network Raising Public Awareness Enhancing R D Investment Using International Resources Conclusions High-Risk Impacts Water Coastal Regions Social and Political Uncertainties Policy Implementation 9 9 11 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 27 28 29 29 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 34 34 Annexes A Accuracy of Regional Models B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on China and China's Adaptive Strategies 5 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views 35 39 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Introduction and Background China is the world’s third largest country in terms of land area after Russia and Canada Its land sprawls from the plateaus and mountains in the west to the lower lands in the east The Yellow River or Huang He and the Long River or Chang Jiang are the two main rivers running from west to east flowing into the Pacific Ocean With soaring economic growth over the past two decades China has successfully transformed itself into a global economic giant In 2007 China’s GDP reached $3 25 trillion nominal and $7 10 trillion purchasing power parity PPP ranked as the fourth and second place in the world respectively i Meanwhile China’s thriving economy has placed the country as one of the top two carbon emitters for years In 2006 China finally surpassed the United States and became the largest carbon emitter ii Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions GHG along with energy conservation has long been regarded as the key strategy for China to battle climate change With the increasing number of extreme weather events China has started to focus on adaptation and adaptive capacity building Since 1949 mainland China has been governed by the Chinese Communist Party CCP In 1978 CCP undertook an unprecedented economic reform aiming to transfer China from a Soviet-style central planning economy to a system “Socialism with Chinese characteristics ” In the 30-year-long period of impressive economic growth private sector and joint-venture companies have dominated China’s manufacturing output Meanwhile the Chinese Government maintains firm control over such key sectors as banking telecommunications and energy iii Media is a mixed story the government sets boundaries for political coverage but grants the media more freedom to report social news With 300 million Internet users iv public opinions expressed on the Internet may play a role in directly or indirectly influencing China’s social and political progress Although widely admired for achieving fast-paced economic growth the most populous country 1 3 billion by the end of 2007 scores low for some of the economic indicators on a per capita basis For example China’s GDP per capita ranked 109th nominal or 106th PPP among 181 countries according to the World Bank in 2007 The Gini coefficient3 a key indicator of income equity reached an alarming 469v UN 2008 In the late 1990s nearly 30 million workers were unemployed due to the reform of state-owned enterprises Millions of workers were left in a dire situation and found it difficult to support their families vi The 2008 global financial crisis has hit coastal regions—where the export-oriented economy is dominating—hard Given the unbalanced regional economic development between the western and eastern regions of China an underdeveloped social protection system for the poor a new annual labor force of 10 million in a nearly saturated job market as well as spotty terrorist activities led by Islamic extreme groups and the unrest from Tibetan anti-government organizations social stability is China’s top governance priority 3 The Gini coefficient is a measure of statistical dispersion most prominently used as a measure of inequality of income distribution or inequality of wealth distribution It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 A low Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution 7 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Since 2005 CCP has advocated “building a harmonious society ”vii a political doctrine formally endorsed by the party in 2006 As The Washington Post suggests it is “a move that further signaled a shift in the party’s focus from promoting all-out economic growth to solving worsening social tensions ”viii In the midst of social and economic development China has been distressed by its acute energy and environmental pressures China’s economy is mainly fueled by coal which accounted for 76 percent of its primary energy production and 70 percent of primary energy consumption in 2005 Although coal is its cheapest and largest domestic fossil resource China faces a daunting challenge for closing its energy gap and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in a coal-based fast-growing economy As the second largest oil importer after the United States China’s economy is vulnerable to the unstable international oil market China has been known for its serious environmental problems as well Two-thirds of the 338 Chinese cities for which airquality data are available are considered polluted ix Industrial sources have polluted more than 70 percent of Chinese rivers and lakes while underground water in 90 percent of Chinese cities is also affected x The concept of a “harmonious society” has now extended to an environmental dimension – the government has urged society to have a harmonious relationship between nature and economic development China is a proven tough negotiator in international discussions on mandatory mitigation targets Mr MA Kai head of China’s powerful National Development and Reform Commission NDRC stated clearly at the release of China’s first national policy on climate change in 2007 “China will not commit to any quantified emissions reduction targets ” Then Mr MA added “…that does not mean China will not assume responsibilities in responding to climate change ”xi Thus China’s current stance may be subject to change China has been actively developing national strategies and policies to deal with climate change After the Earth Summit in 1992 China being among one of the first participating countries published China’s Agenda 21 in 1994—a white paper on China’s strategies for sustainable development In 1996 China for the first time addressed sustainable development as its key guideline and strategic goal for national social and economic development In 2003 China established the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change headed by the NDRC and joined by 14 other Chinese Ministries and Administrations xii In 2007 China released China’s National Climate Change Programme CNCCP the first-ever roadmap outlining specific policy objectives key areas of actions and mitigation and adaptation policies to address climate change China also formed the National Leading Group on Climate Change headed by Premier Wen Jiabao the same year In 2008 the State Council published an important white paper on China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change CPAACC which systematically introduced specific policies and measures on China’s adaptive strategies since the release of CNCCP xiii China’s stance on climate change according to CNCCP can be summarized as follows xiv 1 To address climate change within the framework of sustainable development 2 To follow the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of the UNFCCC 3 To place equal emphasis on both mitigation and adaptation 8 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views 4 To integrate climate change policy with other interrelated policies and to promote climate change policies in a coordinated manner 5 To rely on the advancement and innovation of science and technology 6 To participate in international cooperation actively and extensively For the first time the Chinese Government sought to place “equal emphasis on both mitigation and adaptation ” although mitigation has long attracted investment and been the key strategy to battle climate change in China The new stance signaled that China will enhance its investment in R D policy and regulatory support and project development for building adaptive capabilities Regarding rising international pressures to reduce its soaring carbon emissions President Hu who spoke at the G-8 meeting held in summer 2008 in Japan advanced three arguments to be considered “ 1 China is a developing country in the process of industrialization and modernization… 2 China’s per capita emissions are relatively low and are even lower if calculated in accumulative terms and 3 as a result of changes in international division of labor and manufacturing relocation China faces mounting pressure of international transferred emissions ”xv China and India the two largest developing countries are strong advocates of “common but differentiated responsibilities ” The two countries urged developed countries to take the lead in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and called for developing countries to focus on poverty reduction and sustainable development However China has received much praise during recent climate forums for its impressive and hard mitigation efforts pushed by the central government xvi while India was criticized for not yet “putting its shoulder to the wheel ”xvii China consists of 22 provinces five autonomous regions Tibet Xinjiang Uyghur Ningxia Hui Inner Mongolia and Guangxi Zhuang four municipalities Beijing Tianjin Shanghai and Chongqing and two special administrative regions Hong Kong and Macau see http en wikipedia org wiki File China_administrative gif#filehistory Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of Chinaxviii China extends from 53° to 18° N and from 73° to 134° E and has a wide range of complex topography see http www askasia org images teachers media 43 gif and climates China’s climate varies from tropical to cold temperate and from high mountain to desert The most productive and populated part of the country is found in the coastal regions fronting the Pacific and the valleys of the three great rivers Huang He Chiang Jiang and Xi Jiang In addition the outer territories of China consist of Manchuria in the northeast Inner Mongolia in the north Xinjiang Uygur in the west and Tibet in the southwest The southern borders with Pakistan India and Nepal consist of some of the most mountainous territory in the world The climate of central China and Manchuria is dominated by the great seasonal wind reversal called the Asiatic monsoon From October until April winds tend to blow out from China and the heart of Asia under the influence of the great high-pressure system which develops in Siberia and central Asia at that time From May until September or October as the continent of Asia heats up this area becomes one of low atmospheric pressure and winds are drawn into much of China both from the Indian Ocean and the Pacific These warm moist winds bring most of the 9 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views annual rainfall to Manchuria and China proper at that time Tibet Xinjiang Uygur and Inner Mongolia furthest removed from the influence of the sea receive much less rain China proper at that time Tibet Xinjiang Uygur and Inner Mongolia furthest removed from the influence of the sea receive much less rain North China including Manchuria has extremely cold winters of almost Siberian severity Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur share in this winter cold Tibet a great upland plateau rimmed by some of the highest mountains in the world has cool summers and very cold winters In the northwest Turphan sits in a depression 150m below sea level and is referred to as the “hottest place in China” with maximums of around 47oC South and central China have a tropical or subtropical climate with no real winter cold Eastern China has abundant summer rain while the northern and western regions contain much desert and semi-desert The coastal regions occasionally receive very heavy rainfall from typhoons or tropical cyclones which intensify in the South China Sea and move northeastward along the coast The very strong winds associated with these disturbances are most severe in the coastal belt Typhoons are most frequent from July to October South China is partly within the tropics and is the warmest and wettest part of the country in summer Rainfall is very heavy between May and September along the coast and abundant inland Winters are mild and frost almost unknown Maps showing average annual temperature precipitation and vegetation cover are available at http www chinamaps org china china-temperature-map html http www chinamaps org china china-map-of-precipitation html http www chinamaps org china china-land-cover-map-large-2 html xix Vast arid and semi-arid desert regions in northwestern China and along the boundary area of China and Mongolia produce dust storms that can occur in any season including in summer and fall The largest storms mainly occur in spring These storms affect not only China and Mongolia but also areas downwind including Korea Japan and even the Pacific Hawaii and the west coast of North America Understanding and quantifying the climatic effect of the aeolian dust mostly consisting of mineral aerosols from these storms is important for predicting climate change in China China has two of the Earth’s major natural dust sources the Taklamakan Desert in the west China and the Gobi Desert in Mongolia and northwest China Estimates of the amount of dust produced annually from China’s desert vary greatly One study Zhang et al xx derived an annual dust production of 800 megatons ranging from 500–1100 megatons from China deserts which included Taklamakan Desert and Gobi Desert in Inner Mongolia In another studyxxi a detailed analysis was conducted on one major dust event April 2001 and it was found that the total dust production for all particles diameters less than 36 mm was about 643 megatons over a ten day period the period The estimated emissions from this one event are almost equal to the estimated total annual emissions from Zhang et al A number of factors influence the annual production of dust including meteorological conditions climatic cycles such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and changes in land-use and land-cover including the increasing desertification noted in some 10 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views regions of China Using a dust emission model the relative contribution to the annual dust emissions from Mongolia Taklimakan and Badain Jaran were 29 percent 21 percent and 22 percent of the Asian dust respectively xxii For a map of global worldwide emissions of dust see T D Jickells R A Duce K A Hunter et al “Global Iron Connections Between Desert Dust Ocean Biogeochemistry and Climate ” Science 308 April 1 2005 67 The direct and indirect atmospheric radiative forcing by dust has implications for global climate change and presently is one of the largest unknowns in climate models Development of a better parameterization of the effects of dust on climate change is important to building a better climate model China has about 50 000 rivers located mostly in the southern and eastern areas of the country More than 1 500 of these rivers lie in basins of at least 1 000 km2 Major rivers include theYangtze Yellow Soughua Liaohe Haihe Huaihe and Pearl Rivers These river basins inhabited by 50 percent of China’s population and contributing to over 2 3 of China’s agricultural and industrial production frequently experience significant flooding The climate in these regions is dominated by the East Asia monsoon in the summer and by continental air currents in winter China’s history is filled with reports of the frequent flooding of major rivers Natural disasters such as floods destroy on average a reported 4 182 000 houses per year with some four million people per year needing to be urgently resettled or transferred from their homes xxiii Because of the high population density in the river basins floods in China generally affect large numbers of victims The Yangtze Basin is home to 400 million people with an average density of 214 people km2 making it the most densely populated basin in the world The Yangtze River floods in China in 1991 and 1998 affected a total of 210 million and 238 million people respectively The latter disaster forced China to request international aid for the first time Climate Observations China’s Assessment Report on Climate Changexxiv includes an evaluation of mean temperature precipitation and other climate data from 740 stations across Mainland China Annual mean surface air temperature in Mainland China as a whole rose by about 1 1 oC for the last 50 years with a warming rate of about 0 22 oC per 10 years This rate of warming is significantly higher than the 100-year linear warming trend 1906-2005 of 0 74 oC observed at the global scale xxv The largest warming occurred in winter and spring and in Northeast China North China and Northwest China A cooling trend was observed in Southwest China as reported in earlier studies Summer mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River also decreased in the last 50 years No significant trend was observed in nationally averaged precipitation amounts over the past 50 years However a drying trend was observed in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain with the largest drop in precipitation amounts occurring in Shandong Province A small increase in annual precipitation was observed in the Yangtze River Basin resulting primarily from increased summer rainfall Since 1956 the country-averaged pan-evaporation rate a measure that corrects for temperature humidity solar radiation etc has decreased a small amount although this could be due to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface In parts of the North China Plain annual sunshine duration in the recent years is almost 500 hours fewer than that of 50 years ago Some studies 11 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views have suggested that there are changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events over the past 50 years xxvi however this is not universally accepted There has been a significant increase in aerosol pollution throughout China especially in the urban areas Menonxxvii has suggested that the observed trend toward increased summer floods in south China and drought in north China thought to be the largest change in precipitation trends since 950 A D xxviii may have an alternative explanation human-made absorbing aerosols in remote populous industrial regions that alter the regional atmospheric circulation and contribute to regional climate change Menon’s research also suggests that the spatially varying atmospheric heating caused by black carbon BC alters the Asian summer monsoonal circulation causing the change in precipitation patterns over China Regions at higher latitudes are experiencing a faster rate of warming than the more temperate regions Mongolia particularly around Lake Hovsgol has been warming more than twice as fast as the global average Winter temperatures in Mongolia have increased a staggering 3 6°C on average during the past 60 years xxix Climate Predictions Modeling Although Global Circulation or Climate Models GCMs can be used to infer climate changes in specific regions it is far preferable to develop models that have a high resolution sufficient to resolve local and regional scale changes There are many challenges in reliably simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at regional and local scales At these scales natural climate variability can be relatively larger making it harder to distinguish long-term changes expected due to external forcings The procedure of estimating the response at local scales based on results predicted at larger scales is known as “downscaling ” The two main methods for deriving information about the local climate are 1 dynamical downscaling also referred to as “nested modeling” using “regional climate models” or “limited area models” and 2 statistical downscaling also referred to as “empirical” or “statistical-empirical” downscaling xxx Chemical composition models include the emission of gases and particles as inputs and simulate their chemical interactions global transport by the winds and removal by rain snow and deposition to the earth’s surface Downscaled regional- scale climate models rely on global models to provide boundary conditions and the radiative effect of well-mixed greenhouse gases for the region to be modeled There are three primary approaches to numerical downscaling 1 limited-area models 2 stretched-grid models and 3 uniformly high resolution atmospheric GCMs AGCMs or coupled atmosphere-ocean -sea ice GCMs AOGCMs The magnitudes and patterns of the projected rainfall changes differ significantly among models probably due to their coarse resolution The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are strongly influenced by natural variability occurring on decadal scales but the Indian Ocean appears to be exhibiting a steady warming Natural variability from El Niño- Southern Oscillation ENSO for example in ocean-atmosphere dynamics can lead to important differences in regional rates of surface-ocean warming that affect the atmospheric circulation and hence warming over land surfaces Including sulfate aerosols in the models damps the regional climate sensitivity but greenhouse warming still dominates the changes Models that include emissions of short-lived radiatively active gases and particles suggest that future climate changes could significantly increase 12 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views maximum ozone levels in already polluted regions Projected growth of emissions of radiatively active gases and particles in the models suggest that they may significantly influence the climate even out to year 2100 xxxi Atmospheric brown clouds plumes of polluted air moving from the Asian continent out over the Pacific Ocean may cause precipitation to increase over the Indian Ocean in winter and decrease in the surrounding Indonesia region and the western Pacific Ocean causing a reduction in summer monsoon precipitation in South and East Asia Stabilization emissions scenarios assume future emissions based on an internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces such as population socioeconomic development and technological change and their key relationships These emissions are constrained so that the resulting atmospheric concentrations of the substance level off at a predetermined value in the future For example if one assumes the global CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 450 parts per million ppm the current value is about 380 ppm the climate models can be tuned to produce this result The tuned model predictions for regional climate changes can be used to assess specific impacts at this stabilization level A more detailed discussion of the ability of the models to project regional climate changes can be found in Appendix A Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation Climate changes in temperature and precipitation over China have been projected based on a regional climate model developed by the National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration NCC CMA and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences IAP CAS xxxii Gao et al xxxiii worked with a regional climate model named RegCM China a modified version of the NCAR RegCM2 model to make climate projections up to the year 2100 The model results indicate that a significant warming will occur in the 21st century in China with the largest warming occurring in winter and in the northern portions of China Under varied emission scenarios of greenhouse gases the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1 3-2 1°C by 2020 2 3-3 3°C by 2050 and 3 9-6 0°C by 2100 The model also projected a 10 percent-12 percent increase in annual precipitation in China by the year 2100 with the increases particularly evident in Northeast China Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau Central China was projected to undergo a drying trend The model indicated that anthropogenic climate change probably will lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon across East Asia Yinlong et al xxxiv worked with PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies a regional climate model to obtain high-resolution projections of future climate over China PRECIS was used to analyze the climate change in the 21st century over China under the A2 and B2 GHGs emissions assumptions constructed in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES xxxv PRECIS is a Regional Climate Model RCM developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research with a high horizontal resolution of 50 km50 km and 19 vertical layers The model is capable of running at a resolution of 1 875o in longitude and 1 25 o in latitude The model projected changes of surface air temperature and precipitation for three time-slices of the 21st century By the third time slice 2071-2100 the temperatures in Northeast China North China and Northwest China are projected to increase while the precipitation amounts are projected to decrease under the SRES B2 scenario The climate would become warmer and drier over these three regions in the northern part of China and the precipitation over Central China 13 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views East China and South China would increase largely in summer not as much in winter the precipitation in South China in winter would obviously decrease This means that both the flooding in summer and drought in winter would be enhanced over these three regions in the southern part of China Tables 1 and 2 show the results of the analysis The PRECIS model runs project that average temperature increments at the end of the 21st century over China will be over 3oC while the percentage of precipitation is projected to increase by 10 percent under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios The ratio of maximum minimum surface air temperature during the 2080s under the B2 scenario is projected to increase changes in extreme events are discussed below Projections of Sea Level Changes A significant fraction of sea level rise is due to thermal expansion of a warmed ocean as much as 0 3 to 0 8 meters over the last century according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC xxxvi Geographic patterns of sea level rise are due mainly to changes in the distribution of heat and salinity in the ocean resulting in changes in ocean circulation Precise satellite measurements since 1993 show that the largest sea level rise since 1992 has taken place in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans There is a large interannual variability in sea level rise associated with patterns of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability including El NiñoSouthern Oscillation ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO 14 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Much of China’s coastline is vulnerable to sea level rise Storm surges droughts and other extreme climate events are the main cause of coastal disasters The Yellow River Delta the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the most vulnerable coastal regions in China By 2030 the sea levels along China’s coastal areas could rise by 0 01- 16 meters xxxvii increasing the possibility of flooding and intensified storm surges These disasters could increase coastal erosion degrade coastal ecosystems such as wetlands mangroves and coral reefs and exacerbate saltwater intrusion In particular sea level rise would cause significant degradation of wetland and submergence erosion of tidal flat land in the Yangtze River Delta The South China region is also especially susceptible to sea level rise estimated to be between 0 60-0 74 meters by 2100 This would adversely affect low-lying and damp areas in the Pearl River Delta more than other places In this case the border lines of mangrove areas are likely to move northward and the scope of coral bleaching is likely to expand Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons The following describes a simulation of the present and future climate using the Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System RIEMS and the SRES A2 emissions scenario xxxviii • The simulated climatic belts climatic seasons and Yellow River ice phenology in China are compared between the present climate during 1975–1984 and the future climate during 2035–2044 xxxix Compared to 1975-1984 most of the climatic belts in China will shift northward in 2035-2044 by a maximum of 1 5-2° of latitude The southern boundary of the Northern Sub-tropical Belt NSB will shift northward significantly in spite of the little change in its northern boundary The entire Southern Sub-tropical Belt SSB and the Middle Sub-tropical Belt MSB as well as the northern boundary of the Warm Extratropical Belt WEB will also shift northward by 1-2°of latitude The starting dates of spring and summer will mostly advance opposite to the delays in the starting dates of autumn and winter As a whole the summer in China will grow longer by 26 1 days while spring autumn and winter will become shorter by 6 8 7 9 and 11 4 days respectively In the upper reach of the Yellow River URYR the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by eight days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by five days In the lower reach of the river the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by four days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by four days 15 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Figure 1 Differences in the starting dates of spring a summer b autumn c and winter d between 1975-1984 and 2035-2044 Positive negative values represent postponed advanced days Units are in days Figure 1 above shows the changes in the starting dates of various seasons from 1975-1984 to 2035-2044 when the CO2 concentration increases by 0 77 times that of the former period In the spring a the starting dates change little in part of southwestern and northwestern China and central-western inner Mongolia but they are moved forward in the rest of China by more than 10 days in part of Xinjiang and between three and 10 days in a large part of the country including the northeastern and western and central-southeastern areas of China The biggest advance in the starting dates of seasons occurs in summer b Except for part of Fujian province in the southeast the starting dates of summer move forward by more than three days in most of China In a large portion of the country the summer season advances by more than 10 days Delays in the starting dates of seasons are most pronounced in autumn c These delays are generally more than three days except in part of southeastern China In northwestern southernsouthwestern China and central-northern China the starting dates of autumn are delayed by more than 10 days The starting dates of winter are postponed by more than three days in a major portion of the country d In parts of western and southwestern China the delays are more than 10 days It has been suggested that absorbing aerosols may have masked up to 50 percent of the surface warming in South Asia from the global increase in greenhouse gases In cases where aerosols act to suppress rainfall the second aerosol indirect effect drier conditions tend to induce more dust and smoke due to the burning of drier vegetation affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production 16 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events Extremes are the infrequent events at the high and low end of the range of values of a particular variable The probability of occurrence of values in this range is called a probability distribution function PDF that for some variables is shaped similarly to a “Normal” or “Gaussian” curve the familiar bell-shaped curve People affected by an extreme weather event wonder whether climate changes due to human influences are responsible It is difficult to attribute any individual event to a change in the climate In most regions instrumental records of variability typically extend only over about 150 years so there is limited information to characterize how extreme rare climatic events could be Further several factors usually need to combine to produce an extreme event so linking a particular extreme event to a single specific cause is problematic In some cases it may be possible to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to such changes in the probability of occurrence of extremes As the climate changes and sea surface temperatures SSTs continue to increase the conditions that cause tropical storms to form are no longer the same Higher SSTs are generally accompanied by increased water vapor in the lower troposphere thus the moist static energy that fuels convection and thunderstorms is also increased Hurricanes and typhoons currently form from pre-existing disturbances only where SSTs exceed about 26°C so as SSTs have increased the areas over which such storms can form are potentially expanded However many other environmental factors also influence the generation and tracks of disturbances The 2007 IPCC assessment concluded that there was a risk of increased temperature extremes with more extreme heat episodes in a future climate in China This result has been confirmed and expanded in more recent studies Future increases in temperature extremes are projected to follow increases in mean temperature over most of the world except where surface properties e g snow cover or soil moisture change There is still much debate over whether there is likely to be an increase in tropical cyclone intensity Changes in tropical storm and hurricane frequency and intensity are often masked by large natural variability The El Niño-Southern Oscillation greatly affects the location and activity of tropical storms around the world Globally estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show a substantial upward trend since the mid-1970s with a trend toward longer storm duration and greater storm intensity and the activity is strongly correlated with tropical SSTs One studyxl found a large increase in numbers and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 globally since 1970 even as the total number of cyclones and cyclone days decreased slightly in most basins The largest increase is in the North Pacific Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans The geography and climatology of China enables the frequent occurrence of extreme events Summer storms move eastward along the river systems dumping large amounts of rainfall that can cause severe flooding As a harbinger of the projected intensification of extreme events in southern and eastern China Chongqing and Sichuan in the upper Yangtze Basin generally experience a once-every-100-years drought but was subject to rare flooding in 2007 xli Half of the country’s land area is arid or semiarid Water shortages in northern China over the past three decades have been severe and led to the ongoing construction of the South-North Water Diversion Project a gigantic project that will divert water from three points of the 17 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Yangtze River basin to the north Global warming is likely to enhance such drying China’s agricultural output could be reduced by 5-10 percent by 2030 adding stress to a country that has 20 percent of the world’s population and only 7 percent of the arable land Major ecosystem impacts can be expected with the loss of tundra and mountain forests and the intensification of wildfires Gaoxlii recently studied the possible changes of extreme events due to climate change in a 2x CO2 scenario over East Asia with a focus on the China region as simulated by a regional climate model RegCM2 His results show a measurable increase in both daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures The overall diurnal temperature range decreased The number of days with extreme heat increased while the number of extreme cold decreased There was an increase in the number of rainy days and heavy rain days over some sub-regions of China There was also a change in the frequency of tropical storms affecting the coastlines Application of the PRECIS regional modelxliii to study extreme events showed that the occurrence frequency of extremely high-temperature and extreme precipitation events is expected to increase while extremely low temperature events are projected to decrease Drought with high temperature events may become more common in the northern part of China while flooding in summer in the part of China is expected to increase The models that have been applied to analyze extreme events in China show some differences but overall they indicate a general trend of an increasing frequency of daily high temperature extremes a decrease in the frequency of daily minimum temperature extremes an increase in both the intensity of precipitation events and the frequency of extreme precipitation events and an increase in the occurrence of droughts or dry spells The biggest problem in performing analyses of extreme events for most of the globe is a lack of access to high-quality long-term climate data with the appropriate time resolution China is located in the East Asian monsoon region where arid and semiarid climate dominates in the northern parts of the country In this region the strength of monsoon circulation can cause not only drought flood and cold warm events but also windy conditions and air pollution Some of the early records of dust storm activity in the world are recorded in ancient Chinese literature referring to dust falls in northern China as ‘‘yellow wind’’ or ‘‘black wind ’’ as well as ‘‘dust rain’ or ‘‘dust fog ’’ Dust storms usually occur in the spring and early summer Dust storm frequency in the region has increased in the past decade Although increasing desertification has likely contributed to the increases in dust storms the increase over the past three years is more logically explained by changes in weather and climate than desertification because the land area affected by desertification changes relatively little over a few years China is subject to extensive damage from flooding of its river basins The Yangtze River flood of 1998 in China submerged more than 21 million hectares of farmland an area about seven times the size of Belgium The flood produced an estimated 238 million victims and the cleanup cost was an estimated $30 billion Clearly increasing flooding of the river valleys due to climate change will have a significant impact on the country Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems Clearly a wide range of environmental observations support the fact that rapid climate change is under way in China 18 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Since the 1960s forest cover on Mount Qilian has decreased by 16 5 percent and its forest belt moved up 400 meters In Sichuan Province grass production and quality have decreased In southwest China the Sanjiang Three-River Plain and Qinghai Province wetlands have shrunk and their functions declined Since the 1950s mountain disasters in Southwest China are more frequent and the losses they have caused have increased Climate change has raised the potential for disease incidence and transmission particularly of vector-borne infectious diseases xliv China’s natural systems have witnessed evident impacts of climate change on water resources sea level rise forestry permafrost and glaciers and deserts Water Resources Besides human development climate change has been revealed as a key factor in the changes of water resources in China xlv Drought has hit wider areas in northern China and flooding has increased in southern China Instability in agricultural production has been rising since the 1980s As plants bud and flower earlier they are more subject to crop damage from spring frost which has increased Also over the past two decades optimum areas for growing winter wheat in Northeast China have moved northward and extended westward Production of certain varieties of maize that have a relatively long growth period and high yield have increased overall productivity Since the 1950s xlvi water runoffs to six large rivers in China have all been decreasing with the largest decrease along the Haihe River Some rivers in northern China face intermittent flow Large flooding events occurred along the Yangtze Pearl Songhua Huaihe and Yellow Rivers as well as the Taihu Lake in the 1990s resulting in increasingly heavy losses Climate change and sea level rise have already affected China’s coastal areas where the economic losses from storm surges flooding heavy rains drought and other serious climatic events are significant The Yellow River Delta Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are more vulnerable to storm surge coastal flooding shoreline erosion and losses of wetlands than other coastal places Due to the decrease in annual mean runoff the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and the Gansu Province two neighboring arid provinces in northwestern China are in danger of facing serious water shortages in the next 50 to 100 years The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region two adjacent provinces of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region may also experience an increasing gap between water supply and demand during the same period Meanwhile Hubei and Hunan provinces two bordering provinces located in the Yangtze River will face more flooding in the near future xlvii Sea Level Rise Over the past 30 years along the Chinese coast the sea level and sea surface temperature have increased by 90 millimeters mm and 0 9oC respectively xlviii Sea level rise has not only resulted in seawater intrusion soil salinization and coastal erosion but also threatened coastal and marine ecosystems such as mangrove swamps and coral reefs The rising sea temperature has also degraded marine fishing resources xlix Liu et al l report that since the 1950s the rates of sea level rise along China’s coastline have been between 1 4-3 2 mm per year marine ice condition on the surface of Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has decreased glacier areas in Northwest China have decreased by 21 percent over the past 50 years the permafrost in Tibet has gotten thinner by up to 4-5 meters the water levels of some high plateau inland lakes have risen and grassland production in Sichuan Qinghai and southern 19 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Gansu Provinces have decreased In recent years coral bleaching has been observed in the coastal of Hainan and Guangxi Provinces Forest The observed impacts of climate change on forestry and other natural ecosystems may be reflected by the northward shift of the northern boundaries of eastern subtropical and temperature zones the upward move of vertical spectrum of forest belts increasing frequency of plant diseases and insect pests such as the American white moth and the pinewood nematodeli and increasing forest fires lii However as many studies reveal climate change may bring some positive impacts on China’s forestry productivity and output liii liv lv Data show that the growing season has been extended by 1 4 to 3 6 days per year in the northern regions and by 1 4 day per year across the country between 1982 and 1993 lvi According to a Chinese study published in 2007 net primary productivity grew by 11 5 percent between 1982 and 1999 due to climate change lvii Permafrost and Glaciers The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the most extensive high-altitude permafrost on earth—one of the most sensitive regions to climate change lviii The Plateau taking up 25 percent of China’s land area is sometimes called the “water tower of Asia ”lix The more pronounced temperature changes in the western and northern parts of China may lead to shrinking permafrost and reduced glacier areas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau The permafrost thickness there decreased a maximum of 4-5 meters and the glacier areas in northwestern China decreased by 21 percent in the past 50 years lx It is estimated that by 2050 glacier areas in western China will decrease by 27 7 percent and the spatial distribution of permafrost will face significant change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau lxi Higher average temperatures in summer are thawing permafrost in Mongolia as well and disturbing the soil structure around the shallow tree roots Scientists working in Mongolia have noted that the mountains are losing their snowcaps and the glaciers on the northern shore are shrinking In the past decade Mongolia has experienced four of the worst drought years on record And during the same period intense storms have grown more frequent according to a recent IPCC Assessment Report on the impacts of climate change lxii As permafrost retreats deeper or disappears the ground becomes a giant sponge that removes water away from plant roots As the taiga forest grows thinner and with the loss of the insulating tree cover the soil warming accelerates The drying soil and dying vegetation create a flashpoint raising the risk of wildfires in an area without firefighting equipment or teams Wildfires are growing more frequent and fiercer If the topsoil eroding into Hovsgol’s tributaries spurs algal growth in the lake it could ruin the region’s best source of drinking water A study of glaciers in the Himalayas show that they are now receding at an average rate of 10-15 meters per year lxiii These glaciers collect water during the monsoon season and release it during the dry season providing irrigation water for crops If the rate of glacial melt increases flooding is likely to occur in the river valleys fed by the glaciers Later as the river flows decrease to below previous rates many people may be left without sufficient drinking water or water for irrigating crops The rapid shrinking of No 1 Glacier on Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a clear warning of the reality of climate change 20 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views The shrinkage is taking place at the rate of 3 5 meters a year on the eastern part of the glacier and 5 9 meters a year on the western part The glacier has been in a state of retreat since the 1950s The continuous shrinking split the glacier into two independent glaciers in 1993 From 1958 to 2004 the average thickness of the glacier decreased by 12 meters and the volume of ice loss reached more than 20 million cubic meters Long-term observations from 1962 to 2006 showed that the glacier's area decreased by 270 000 square meters at an accelerating rate Deserts Desert expansion has accelerated with each successive decade since 1950 China’s Environmental Protection Agency reports that the Gobi Desert expanded by 52 400 square kilometers 20 240 square miles from 1994 to 1999 an area half the size of Pennsylvania With the advancing Gobi now within 150 miles of Beijing China's leaders are beginning to sense the gravity of the situation The dust bowl currently forming in China is much larger than the one that formed in the Great Plains of the United States during the 1930s when the US population was only 150 million—compared with 1 3 billion in China today The increase of dust storms may also lead to severe air pollution episodes destruction of vegetation erosion of surfaces and change in soil pH values affecting agricultural production downwind of their source Impacts of Climate Change on Human Systems Climate change has substantially stressed China’s economic and social development especially evident in agriculture and along coastal regions as well as the energy sector The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have brought significant damage to local economies and infrastructure but also attracted national attention to the adverse impacts of climate change Agriculture Agriculture is highly dependent on temperature precipitation and water resources which are greatly affected by climate change According to CPAACC lxiv • Climate change has already produced visible adverse effects on China’s agriculture and livestock sectors manifested by increased instability in agricultural production severe damages to crops and livestock caused by droughts and high temperatures aggravated spring freeze and decline in the output and quality of grasslands • China expects that the adverse impacts on agriculture and livestock will reduce crop production such as wheat paddy rice and corn change the agricultural production structure accelerate the decomposition of organic elements in the soil expand the affected areas suffered from crop diseases and insect pests degrade grasslands increase natural fire disasters reduce livestock production and increase the risk of livestock epidemics Due to the impact of climate change spring phenophase a key indicator of crop response to recent regional climate change lxv has advanced two-to-four days since the 1980s lxvi A study conducted by Du et al 2004 shows observed increases in animal production in Tibet related to the rise of annual temperature especially during the summer season lxvii Recent studieslxviii show that climate change is likely to significantly influence China’s agricultural output By 2030 overall crop productivity in China could decrease by as much as 510 percent if no action is taken By the second half of the 21st century climate change could 21 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views cause reductions in yields of rice maize and wheat of up to 37 percent In the next 20-50 years agricultural production may be seriously affected compromising long-term food security in China The North China Plain is the largest agricultural production area in China The extensive use of groundwater for irrigation agriculture under variable climatic conditions has resulted in the rapid decline of the groundwater table especially in areas north of the Yellow River leading to hydrological imbalance and unsustainable agricultural production Future climate change is likely to exacerbate the problem If the negative impacts of climate change are not effectively controlled Chinese experts warn that the production of wheat rice and corn will be reduced by 37 percent in the late 21st century From 2010 to 2030 western China would suffer a water shortage of 20 billion cubic meters lxix Coastal Regions China’s coastal regions consist of eight provinces two municipalities Shanghai and Tianjin and two special administrative regions Hong Kong and Macao The regions account for 16 8 percent of China’s total land areas 41 9 percent of its population and 72 5 percent of China’s GDP including Hong Kong and Macao lxx With about 144 million square meters China’s low coastal lands with an elevation less than 5 meters are the major areas vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme climate events such as storm surges and typhoons Since the 1960s these areas have observed increasing frequency and intensity of tropical storms while the frequency of both the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones and the related landfall events over China has been decreasing on average during the same period lxxi Energy According to a recent estimate by the International Energy Agency China will overtake the United States to become the world’s largest energy consumer after 2010 lxxii Energy for the heating and cooling of buildings is expected to grow as a result of improved living standards and hotter summers Significantly longer periods of heat waves have been observed in many Chinese cities especially in eastern and southern China These two regions are China’s most active economic zones fueled mainly by energy imported from other regions The frequent heat waves caused a wide use of air conditioning and pushed the local power supply to the edge The impacted areas suffered power shortages and cutoffs to deal with the shortage lxxiii Disasters and Hazards Recent disasters and hazards caused by extreme events have caused significant damage to the local and regional economy infrastructure energy transmission and transportation as well as the daily life of the affected areas Nevertheless extreme weather events—especially floods and storms—have often led to intensive national media coverage including newspaper TV and Internet which have effectively raised public concerns over the adverse impacts of climate change A list of major extreme weather events in the past five years includes the following • In January and February 2008 19 provinces in central eastern and southern China witnessed unusual snowfall persistent low temperatures and icing The three-week-long extreme weather caused disruptions in transportation and electric power transition rising food prices 22 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views and damage to agriculture and livestock lxxiv lxxv At least 100 million people were affected and 60 died lxxvi • In 2007 Guangdong Province in southern China experienced record rainfall In Zhanjiang a coastal province in eastern China many houses and factories were destroyed by a tornado In north and west China the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Shaanxi and Gansu provinces and Chongqing municipality suffered from record droughts Some areas of Shaanxi and Chongqing are still experiencing shortages of drinking water lxxvii • In August 2004 Typhoon Rananim hit the wealthy Zhejiang Province Rananim killed at least 164 people and 55 000 livestock injuring more than 1 800 people destroying 64 300 houses and affecting 13 million people The worst typhoon since 1956 resulted in a direct economic loss of $2 2 billion lxxviii Adaptive Capacity A global comparative studylxxix of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM—see box below A sample of 15 countries including China spans a wide range of values Figure 2 A closer look at these countries provides insight into the sources of the rankings see box on page 24 Methodological Description of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The resilience index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be negatively affected by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is made up of 1-3 proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birth rate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk from sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is composed of the geometric means of lower level values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of the adaptive capacity and sensitivity 23 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Resilience indicator values base year Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Sectoral indicator values base year Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad settlement food security health ecosystem resilience water availability economic capacity human resources 0 200 400 600 800 environmental capacity Figure 2 VRIM Base year results resilience rankings and the element indicator values for example countries Impact of Sources on State Vulnerability-Reliance Indicators • Norway’s GDP per capita in combination with the equity index provides the highest resilience ranking among these countries • Spain has high scores in economic capacity settlement security and food security and human health compared to the other countries partially offset by the lowest scores in ecosystem resilience and environmental response capacity to climate • China scores highest in food security due to cereal production and human health and has among the highest scores in human resources • Yemen scores lowest in people in the workforce and is low in economic capacity due to inequity This country also scores low in water availability and cereal production and has a high birth rate • Chad scores lowest in settlement security due to lack of access to clean water and sanitation • Senegal also scores low in settlement security but for a different reason many people live in sea-surge prone areas 24 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Projections of resilience are based on different rates of change in the proxy values If the same change rates were used to project the baseline values countries would travel parallel pathways into the future A change in ranking can only result from responses that are unique to countries and or from alternative scenarios Figure 3 shows projections for the 15-country sample for the high-growth and delayed-growth scenarios of the future into 2065 The relative rankings of the four lowest-ranked countries do not change in either scenario although the pathways differ In the high-growth scenario countries tend to converge more than in the delayed growth scenario The high-growth scenario shows a greater increase in resilience for developing countries than for the developed countries Figure 4 In the high-growth scenario China has the largest increase in resilience It changes ranks from 5th from the bottom among the 15 countries around the turn of the century to “developed country” resilience by 2050 This ranking is equivalent to Spain and even outranks Australia In the delayed-growth scenario China’s resilience increases only a fraction faster than other developing countries ranking 8th by 2050 Russia also shows potential increase in resilience especially in the high-growth scenario by maintaining ecosystem resilience Changing ranks of resilience high growth scenario 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 19902000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Changing ranks of resilience delayed growth scenario 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 19902000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Norway Canada Japan USA Australia Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senegal Yemen Chad Norway Canada Japan USA Australia Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senegal Yemen Chad Figure 3 Projections of the resilience indicator value for the example countries 25 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Ranks of resilience in 2020 high growth scenario Ranks of resilience in 2050 high growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad 30 40 50 60 70 80 30 90 Ranks of resilience in 2020 delayed growth scenario 40 50 60 70 80 90 80 90 Ranks of resilience in 2050 delayed growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 30 40 50 60 70 Figure 4 Changes in ranking by 2020 and 2050 for the example countries Figure 5 shows the contributing element indicator values to help examine the contributing factors in these phenomena For example on the one hand China’s investment in infrastructure alleviates the settlement sensitivity and leads to China becoming considerably more resilient in the high-growth scenario On the other hand for the currently highest ranking resilient countries reduced resilience in ecosystem sensitivity and water availability over time due to increasing population and land-use changes is compensated less by economic growth and infrastructure investment than in China 26 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Sectoral contributions to resilience in 2020 high growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad settlement food security health ecosystem resilience water availability economic capacity human resources environmental capacity 0 200 400 600 800 Sectoral contributions to resilience in 2050 high growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad 1000 settlement food security health ecosystem resilience water availability economic capacity human resources environmental capacity 0 Sectoral contributions to resilience in 2020 delayed growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad settlement food security health ecosystem resilience water availability economic capacity human resources environmental capacity 0 200 400 600 800 1000 200 400 600 800 1000 Sectoral contributions to resilience in 2050 delayed growth scenario Norway Canada Japan USA Australi Spain Russia Brazil Mexico Turkey China India Senega Yemen Chad settlement food security health ecosystem resilience water availability economic capacity human resources environmental capacity 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Figure 5 Element indicator values for the example countries Current Chinese plans reflect a determination to increase adaptive capacity The Chinese Government has been promoting mitigation and energy conservation which had long been regarded as the key strategy for China to battle climate change With the new stance of “equal emphasis on both mitigation and adaptation ” addressed in China’s National Climate Change Program CNCCP the government will devote its resources to adaptive capacity-building to buffer the adverse impacts of climate change in China According to CNCCP and China’s Actions and Policies on Climate Change CPAACC China’s past achievements and future actions are reflected in its governmental management of such vulnerable sectors as water coastal management agriculture and forestry China is also active in building and improving its early warning and monitoring network to reduce avoidable social and economic damages caused by extreme weather events In addition the central government has been supporting policy and pouring financial investments into the development of science and technology related to climate change China continues its national and local public information campaign to raise public awareness and keeps an open and active attitude toward using international available resources for improving its adaptive capacity Water Resources Past Achievements China has issued a series of laws and regulations to enhance the sustainable use of water resources including the Law of the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution 1984 1996 Law of Water and Soil Conservation 1991 Flood Control Law 1997 and Water Law 2002 China also set up programs of flood control and disaster alleviation for major 27 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views rivers as well as water conservation programs By the end of 2007 China has successfully controlled soil erosion over one million square kilometers lxxx Future Actions According to the CNCCP and the CPAACC China will take the following strategies to enhance adaptive capacity of water resources to climate change lxxxi 1 China will establish a national system of water right allocation and water right transfer and develop market-oriented financing and a management system for key water conservation projects 2 China will construct projects to control floods on major rivers and floods caused by mountain torrents To alleviate the trend of droughts in the north and floods in the south China plans to speed the construction of the Project of South-to-North Water Diversion which aims to help optimize the allocation of water resources from the Yangtze River Yellow River Huaihe River and Haihe River In addition China will continue the construction of regional water storage and water diversion projects 3 China will promote technology development for water conservation sea water use wastewater and rainfall utilization artificial rainfall enhancement industrial water recycling and water efficiency irrigation etc China’s near-term goals by 2010 are to complete anti-flood systems in major rivers raise the drought relief standard in farmland and effectively reduce the vulnerability of water resources to climate change lxxxii Coastal Management Past Achievements China’s coastal regions are the country’s most economically developed regions Since the 1980s China has launched a series of laws to protect coastal regions and marine resources such as the Marine Environment Protection Law 1983 and 1999 China’s Marine Programs 1998 and Law of Administration of Sea Areas 2002 lxxxiii Future Actions Due to their low and flat landscape the lack of monitoring and emergency response network as well as less stringent standards of anti-tide construction China’s coastal regions are vulnerable to sea level rise coastal erosion and soil salinization According to the CNCCP and CPAACC lxxxiv China will take the following strategies to improve the adaptive capacity of its coastal areas 1 China will build up regional management regulations in accordance with the related laws establish an integrated coastal zone management system and coordination mechanism develop demonstration sites for integrated management and improve design standards for sea dike and port docks China will also speed up the process of setting up natural reserves for coral reefs and mangroves 2 China will invest R D focused on protection and restoration of marine ecosystems including the cultivation transplant and recovery of coastal mangroves protection and restoration of coral reefs as well as the protection of coastal wetlands and ecosystems 3 China will build more observation sites in coastal areas and on islands improve the capability of aerial remote sensing and telemetering of marine environments and build early-warning and response systems for tidal disasters 28 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views China’s near-term goals are to construct and expand mangroves to effectively raise the adaptive capacity of coastal regions by establishing a monitoring network and related regulations and to construct a coastal shelterbelt system by 2010 lxxxv Agriculture Past Achievements Agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors in China employing over 300 million laborerslxxxvi the largest labor-intensive sector and contributing to 11 3 percent of GDP in 2007 the third largest after the industry and service sectors lxxxvii China has issued a series of laws and regulations related to agriculture such as the Grassland Law 1985 Fisheries Law 1986 Law on Land Management 1986 1998 Regulations of Responses to Major Emergent Animal Epidemics Agriculture Law 2002 and Livestock Epidemics 2003 The government has invested heavily in agricultural infrastructure improved irrigation and drainage efficiency and capability and promoted dry farming and water-efficient technologies China also has been actively promoting the cultivation of stress-resistant crop seeds lxxxviii Future Actions According to the CNCCP China’s strategies for improving adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector can be summarized as follows lxxxix 1 China will promote production clusters using advantageous crop varieties The government will continue to expand the demonstration projects on water efficiency irrigation and on dryland farming in arid areas China will protect and improve the grassland ecosystem by converting grazing areas back to grassland constructing meadow enclosures artificial grasslands and grassland fire-prevention facilities and carrying out projects to protect aquatic ecosystems 2 China will accelerate the construction of supporting facilities for large-scale watersaving irrigation areas upgrade aging mechanical and electronic equipment improve irrigation and drainage systems and conduct small-scale hydraulic projects focused on field irrigation and drainage China will accelerate the construction of water collection and utilization projects in mountain areas and other arid areas 3 China will develop varieties of crops and livestock resistant to drought waterlogging high temperature diseases and pests Technology development will be focused on photosynthesis biological nitrogen fixation bio-technology prevention of diseases and pests stress resistance and precision agriculture By 2010 China’s near-term goals are to increase improved grassland by 24 million hectares restore 52 million hectares of grassland affected by degradation desertification and salinity and strive to increase the efficient utilization agricultural irrigation water xc Forestry Past Achievements To protect forest and other ecosystems China has issued and enforced relevant laws and regulations including the Forest Law 1984 1998 Law on the Protection of Wildlife Law on Water and Soil Conservation 1989 Management Regulations on National Forest Diseases and Insect Pests Central Monitoring Stations 2001 Law on Prevention and Control of Desertification 2002 Regulations on Conversion of Farmland to Forests and Forest Fire Prevention Regulations 2003 xci The government has established a comprehensive monitoring system for forest resources and ecosystem conditions improved an evaluation system and emergency-response system for forest fires pests and diseases implemented a national 29 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views medium- and long-term program for the prevention of forest fires pests and diseases enhanced the protection of endangered species and their habitat ecosystems and restored the functions of eco-fragile areas and ecosystems Future Actions According to the CNCCP China’s strategies to improve adaptive capacity for the forestry sector can be summarized as follows xcii 1 China will amend the Forest Law and Law on the Protection of Wildlife draft a Law of Nature Reserve and Regulations on Wetland Protection and address climate change adaptation in existing laws by adding new articles or contents 2 The government will strengthen the protection of existing forest resources and other natural ecosystems restore degraded natural forest ecosystems progressively protect wetland conservation expand the total area of nature reserves and develop bio-corridors among reserves China also will strengthen controls on forest fire insect and disease and integrate existing forestry monitoring systems into a comprehensive monitoring system for forest resources and other ecosystems 3 The focus areas include forest fire control forest insect and disease control and development of tree species with a high resistance to cold drought pests and disease China also will focus on biodiversity conservation and restoration and monitoring technologies for forest resources and forest ecosystems such as desertification wild animals and plants wetlands forest fires forest pests and diseases By 2010 China’s near-term goals are to increase the forest coverage rate to 20 percent and to increase the carbon sink by 50 million tons over 2005’s level China also will aim to protect 90 percent of forest ecosystems and national key wildlife increase nature reserve areas to 16 percent of the total territory and control 22 million hectares of desertificated lands during the same time xciii Early Warning System and Monitoring Network In the face of increasing extreme meteorological emergencies China has improved its early warning system and monitoring network to enhance adaptive capacity in vulnerable sectors such as coastal management agriculture and forestry In early 2009 the China Meteorological Administration issued a circular urging its branches at all levels to provide accurate extreme weather forecasts such as for snow frost rain and storms to “local governments relevant organizations and the public via phone text messages email and other methods ” The circular especially stressed that the grain production bases located in north China and Yellow River and Huai Rivers should be provided with updated drought information xciv To counter flood and storms local governments have been required to develop city flood control and water drainage plans The state will further establish its monitoring and control network to deal with epidemic-infected area caused by climate change xcv The People’s Liberation Army PLA has often been deployed by the government as an emergency rescue team to the affected areas when facing extreme weather events like floods and storms PLA called the People’s Army has been highly praised for self-sacrifice and efficiency 30 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Raising Public Awareness Past Achievements With the purpose of fostering a social atmosphere to build a resourcesconserving and environmentally friendly society China has been conducting intensive social marketing to raise public awareness on energy conservation and climate change Since 1992 China has launched 18 National Energy Conservation Weeks The government issued the Public Action Plan on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction and coordinated relevant national and local activities with communities enterprises schools governmental agencies and the mass media The Chinese Government requires governmental agencies to take leadership to reduce their own energy consumption in building and transportation China also encourages citizens to change their lifestyles and consumption patterns for energy conservation and emission reduction In recent years nongovernmental organizations and many social groups have been actively playing a role in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction xcvi Future Actions According to the CNCCP China’s strategies to raise public awareness can be summarized as follows xcvii 1 All level of governmental officials and decision-makers of enterprises and institutions should be exposed to climate change information and work toward raising public awareness 2 China will fully employ the power of the mass media to disseminate information about climate change through books newspapers periodicals audio and video products and the Internet China will integrate knowledge about climate change into its education system 3 China will establish an incentive mechanism to encourage public and enterprise participation increase the transparency of decision-making processes related to climate change issues promote public supervision and encourage social groups and NGOs to play active roles 4 China will strengthen international cooperation on public awareness related to climate change issues especially good practices on climate change information dissemination and education China will actively promote information exchanges in the form of publications movies television audio and video tapes and other literature building a database on climate change and providing information retrieval services for domestic agencies research institutions and schools By 2010 China’s near-term goals are to raise awareness of all Chinese society on climate change and to establish a high-efficient institutional and management framework to address climate change xcviii Enhancing R D Investment Past Achievements In 2006 China invested $38 5 billion on R D 1 4 percent of its GDP that year up 22 percent from 2005 The government also announced 16 national key projects and 10 national laboratories to be completed by 2020 xcix In 2007 the Chinese Government earmarked $556 million 20 percent higher than in 2006 for the National Natural Science Foundation an organization similar to the US National Science Foundation c Energy and environment are two important R D areas attracting government funding Future Actions According to the CNCCP China’s strategies to enhance climate change-related R D are summarized as follows ci 31 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views 1 China will support climate change-related R D under the framework of the National Program for Medium-to-Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development 20062020 strengthen the macro management and policy guidance for scientific and technological research related to climate change improve regional and sectoral research and encourage innovation of climate change science and technology 2 China will promote scientific research and technological development in the following key areas scientific facts and uncertainty impacts of climate change on the social economy analysis of the effectiveness of socioeconomic benefits and costs in response to climate change and technology for mitigation and adaptation China will pay special attention to the development of large-scale and precise climate change monitoring technology energy efficiency and clean energy technology emission control and utilization technology for carbon dioxide methane and other greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors biological carbon-capture technology and carbon sequestration technology 3 China will establish effective incentive and competition mechanisms and a favorable academic environment for researchers foster academic leaders and eminent candidates with international vision and the ability to lead climate change studies and encourage junior research China will strengthen the disciplinary development of climate change science promote research teams establish the “open free competitive and cooperative” operation mechanism for climate change research institutes and make full use of various channels and approaches to enhance the research ability and independent-innovation capacity of China’s scientists and research institutions China will build up climate change science and technology management teams and R D teams in the context of China’s national circumstances encouraging Chinese scientists to participate in international R D programs on global climate change and pursue positions in international research institutions 4 China will establish relatively stable governmental-funded channels as the main financing sources to support climate change-related scientific and technological research taking measures to ensure the full allocation and efficient use of governmental investment raise funds through various channels and by various means from all sectors of the society introduce venture capital investment in the area of climate change research guide business and enterprises to increase their investment in R D on climate change science and technology and encourage them to take a leading role for technology innovation and use the bilateral and multilateral funds from foreign governments and international organizations to assist China’s R D on climate change science and technology Using International Resources Since the late 1980s China has been actively using international resources such as foreign governments international organizations and research institutes to promote its science and technology development related to energy efficiency and climate change The international collaboration not only improves China’s research capacity but also influences China’s climate-related policies such as policies adopted by China’s farming and forestry departments China’s water resources management China’s comprehensive management of coastal zone and marine ecosystems and China’s laws and regulations related to climate change In addition China enhances information exchanges and resource sharing with international organizations and institutes cii 32 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views For bilateral exchanges related to climate change issues China has established a dialogue and cooperation mechanism with the European Union Japan the United States Canada the United Kingdom Australia India Brazil and South Africa China actively participates in international scientific and technological cooperation programs including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the World Climate Research Programme under the framework of the Earth System Science Partnership the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change the Intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations the Global Climate Observation System the Global Ocean Observation System the Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Oceanography and the International Polar Year Through international cooperation China has conducted systematic research under the clean development mechanism CDM By July 2008 China had implemented 244 CDM cooperation projects which were registered with the United Nations It is expected that the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions through CDM projects will reach 113 million tons per year ciii Conclusions High-Risk Impacts China has demonstrated its determination to tackle the climate change issues as an important domestic affair However the government has not seriously addressed some prominent climate impact issues such as the underrated and underpublicized water crisis the climate security of coastal regions and the underdeveloped social protection system In addition China must demonstrate an ability to implement its ambitious plans Water With 20 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of global water resources China is suffering an underrated water crisis According to Chinese studies China’s water supply is likely to reach its limit by 2030 when its population hits 1 6 billion with an urbanization rate of 60 percent China’s water supply will fall 11 billion cubic meters annually in spite of the improved supply capacity civ Beijing is among the most affected cities A scarcity of natural water resources fast-growing urbanization and industrialization severe water pollution and cheap water prices are among the main factors leading to China’s water crisis The adverse impacts of climate change on water sources especially with frequent droughts in the north will push the crisis even further The drought regions may be prone to social unrest caused by water shortages Conflicts over water rights and distribution between social groups and between sectors may occur The serious middle- and long-term droughts may lead environmental refugees to flee to water-rich regions The expected South-to-North Water Diversion Project may alleviate the water stress of some northern regions but it will not be sufficient enough to provide a full solution cv Frequent and prolonged droughts and floods will not only affect livelihoods but also damage the local regional and national economy With 300 million workers agriculture which is highly water-dependent may be at greater risk than all other sectors The negative impacts on agriculture will bring high risk for China’s food security but also lead to an influx of immigrants to urban areas for jobs transferring resource and social stress to Chinese cities 33 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Coastal Regions China has an 18 000-km coastline and one third of China’s border faces the sea With 16 8 percent of China’s total land area 41 9 percent of the population and 72 5 percent of China’s GDP the coastal regions are the engine of China’s sustainable economic growth However due to their flat and low landscape most of China’s coastal regions are highly vulnerable to sea level rise including Shanghai—China’s business and financial hub The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as typhoons has threatened the economic development at local regional and national levels China has been actively developing early warning systems and related monitoring systems and improving the design standards of sea dike and port docks Improved management including increased effectiveness of early-warning and monitoring systems better enforcement of design standards and increase in trained emergency responses teams could lower the risk of damage from extreme weather events Social and Political Uncertainties China’s actual unemployment rate in the past three years is widely believed to be much higher than the official 9 6 percent cvi Facing a large unemployed population China’s underdeveloped social protection system is less and less able to protect those who need it Rising expenses on healthcare education and housing have been financial burdens for the average Chinese family The export-oriented economy is vulnerable to the present global financial crisis Chinese experts believe that 2009 will be a difficult year for China’s economy cvii As the second largest oil importer China has exposed itself to an unstable international oil market The adverse impacts of climate change will add extra pressure to the existing social and resource such as energy stresses Establishing an effective social protection system will be ranked high in the Chinese Government’s long to-do list Policy Implementation There is little doubt that China has taken climate change issues seriously although China’s seriousness has often been overlooked due to its more-publicized non-negotiable “you-take-thefirst-step” attitudes in international negotiations Evidence of China’s seriousness is apparent in its fast growing array of national laws regulations and policies that focus on mitigation energy efficiency resource protections and adaptive capacities The Chinese Government has successfully used its power to promote and implement some of its national programs and policies such as energy efficiency standards for appliances top 1 000 industrial energy conservation program cviii and an efficient light bulb subsidy program cix In the context of a mixed economy conflicted interests and different priorities between national and local governments and complicated stakeholder relations implementation is China’s big hurdle for the success of mitigation and adaptation For example compliance with the building energy code is mandated under Chinese law However the actual enforcement rate is very low in mid- and small-sized cities cx Building adaptive capacities will face the same challenge Smart employment of a set of policy instruments such as regulations incentive and voluntary programs and well-designed local action plans could improve implementation Other countries could help China by sharing their experiences on implementation 34 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models This is an excerpt from IPCC 2007 Chapter 11 Regional models see IPCC 2007 for references 4 11 4 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate Regional mean temperature and precipitation in the MMD models show biases when compared with observed climate Table 3 The multi-model mean shows a cold and wet bias in all regions and in most seasons and the bias of the annual average temperature ranges from –2 5°C over the Tibetan Plateau TIB to –1 4°C over South Asia SAS For most regions there is a 6°C to 7°C range in the biases from individual models with a reduced bias range in Southeast Asia SEA of 3 6°C The median bias in precipitation is small less than 10 percent in Southeast Asia South Asia and Central Asia CAS larger in northern Asia and East Asia NAS and EAS around 23 percent and very large in the Tibetan Plateau 110 percent Annual biases in individual models are in the range of –50 to 60 percent across all regions except the Tibetan Plateau where some models simulate annual precipitation 2 5 times that observed and even larger seasonal biases occur in winter and spring These global models clearly have significant problems over Tibet due to the difficulty in simulating the effects of the dramatic topographic relief as well as the distorted albedo feedbacks due to extensive snow cover However with only limited observations available predominantly in valleys large errors in temperature and significant underestimates of precipitation are likely South Asia Over South Asia the summer is dominated by the southwest monsoon which spans the four months from June to September and dominates the seasonal cycles of the climatic parameters While most models simulate the general migration of seasonal tropical rain the observed maximum rainfall during the monsoon season along the west coast of India the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining northeast India is poorly simulated by many models Lal and Harasawa 2001 Rupa Kumar and Ashrit 2001 Rupa Kumar et al 2002 2003 This is likely linked to the coarse resolution of the models as the heavy rainfall over these regions is generally associated with the steep physical geography of local mountains However the simulated annual cycles in South Asian mean precipitation and surface air temperature are reasonably close to the observed The multi-model data set MMD models capture the general regional features of the monsoon such as the low rainfall amounts coupled with high variability over northwest India However there has not yet been sufficient analysis of whether finer details of regional significance are simulated more adequately in the MMD models Recent work indicates that time-frame experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model AGCM with prescribed sea surface temperatures SSTs as opposed to a fully coupled system are not able to accurately capture the South Asian monsoon response Douville 2005 Thus neglecting the short-term SST feedback and variability seems to have a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming complicating the regional downscaling problem However May 2004a notes that the high-resolution about 1 5 degrees European Centre-Hamburg ECHAM4 general circulation model GCM simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall intensity as well as frequency of wet days in good agreement with the observations Global Precipitation Climatology Project Huffman et al 2001 4 Some references in this section have been changed to be internally consistent with this document and other references have been removed to avoid confusion 35 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Three-member ensembles of baseline simulations 1961–1990 from a regional climate model RCM PRECIS at 50 km resolution have confirmed that significant improvements in the representation of regional processes over South Asia can be achieved Rupa Kumar et al 2006 For example the steep gradients in monsoon precipitation with a maximum along the western coast of India are well represented in PRECIS East Asia Simulated temperatures in most MMD models are too low in all seasons over East Asia the mean cold bias is largest in winter and smallest in summer Zhou and Yu 2006 show that over China the models perform reasonably well in simulating the dominant variations of the mean temperature over China but not the spatial distributions The annual precipitation over East Asia exceeds the observed estimates in almost all models and the rain band in the mid-latitudes is shifted northward in seasons other than summer This bias in the placement of the rains in central China also occurred in earlier models e g Zhou and Li 2002 Gao et al 2004 In winter the area-mean precipitation is overestimated by more than 50 percent on average due to strengthening of the rain band associated with extratropical systems over South China The bias and inter-model differences in precipitation are smallest in summer but the northward shift of this rain band results in large discrepancies in summer rainfall distribution over Korea Japan and adjacent seas Kusunoki et al 2006 find that the simulation of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu rains in the East Asian monsoon is improved substantially with increasing horizontal resolution Confirming the importance of resolution regional climate models RCMs simulate more realistic climatic characteristics over East Asia than atmospheric-ocean general circulation models AOGCMs whether driven by re-analyses or by AOGCMs e g Ding et al 2003 Oh et al 2004 Fu et al 2005 Zhang et al 2005a Ding et al 2006 Sasaki et al 2006b Several studies reproduce the fine-scale climatology of small areas using a multiply nested RCM Im et al 2006 and a veryhigh resolution 5 km RCM Yasunaga et al 2006 Gao et al 2006b report that simulated East Asia large-scale precipitation patterns are significantly affected by resolution particularly during the mid- to late-monsoon months when smaller-scale convective processes dominate Southeast Asia The broad-scale spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in December-JanuaryFebruary DJF and June-July-August JJA averaged across the MMD models compares well with observations Rajendran et al 2004 examine the simulation of current climate in the MRI coupled model Large-scale features were well simulated but errors in the timing of peak rainfall over Indochina were considered a major shortcoming Collier et al 2004 assess the performance of the CCSM3 model in simulating tropical precipitation forced by observed SST Simulation was good over the maritime continent compared to the simulation for other tropical regions Wang et al 2004 assess the ability of 11 AGCMs in the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulation forced with observed SST variations They found that the models’ ability to simulate observed interannual rainfall variations was poorest in the Southeast Asian portion of the domain Since current AOGCMs continue to have some significant shortcomings in representing El Niño- Southern Oscillation ENSO variability the difficulty of projecting changes in ENSO-related rainfall in this region is compounded Rainfall simulation across the region at finer scales has been examined in some studies The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO stretched-grid Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM at 80-km resolution shows reasonable 36 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views precipitation simulation in JJA although Indochina tended to be drier than in the observations McGregor and Nguyen 2003 Aldrian et al 2004a conducted a number of simulations with the Max-Planck Institute MPI regional model for an Indonesian domain forced by reanalyses and by the ECHAM4 GCM The model was able to represent the spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall It was found that a resolution of at least 50 km was required to simulate rainfall seasonality correctly over Sulawesi The formulation of a coupled regional model improves regional rainfall simulation over the oceans Aldrian et al 2004b Arakawa and Kitoh 2005 demonstrate an accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over Indonesia with an AGCM of 20-km horizontal resolution Central Asia and Tibet Due to the complex topography and the associated mesoscale weather systems of the highaltitude and arid areas GCMs typically perform poorly over the region Importantly the GCMs and to a lesser extent RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over arid and semi-arid areas in the north e g Small et al 1999 Gao et al 2001 Elguindi and Giorgi 2006 Over Tibet the few available RCM simulations generally exhibit improved performance in the simulation of present-day climate compared to GCMs e g Gao et al 2003a b Zhang et al 2005b For example the GCM simulation of Gao et al 2003a overestimated the precipitation over the north-western Tibetan Plateau by a factor of five to six while in an RCM nested in this model the overestimate was less than a factor of two 37 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Table 3 Biases in present-day 1980-1999 surface air temperature and precipitation in the MMD simulations The simulated temperatures are compared with the HadCRUT2v Jones et al 2001 data set and precipitation with the CMAP update of Xie and Arkin 1997 data set Temperature biases are in °C and precipitation biases in per cent Shown are the minimum median 50 percent and maximum biases among the models as well as the first 25 percent and third 75 percent quartile values Colors indicate regions seasons for which at least 75 percent of the models have the same sign of bias with orange indicating positive and light violet negative temperature biases and light blue positive and light brown negative precipitation biases 38 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views Annex B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on China and China’s Adaptive Strategies To increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of China’s projected climate changes and their impacts as well as the country’s adaptive capacity the following gaps would need to be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes Uncertainties in changing monsoonal activity dust storms and desertification leave important gaps in knowledge needed for climate projections One gap of particular interest is the lack of medium-term 20-30 years projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas Research agendas in these areas can be found in for instance the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program http www climatescience gov and the National Academy of Sciences e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 11175#toc Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected • In social science research scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors in vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity—much less their interactions and evolution Again research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decision-making abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important factors are unaccounted for in research scientists know what some of them are but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain Modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal and the only factor modeled was deforestation This assumption of course made the models inadequate for their purposes In another example ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests e g the pine bark beetle • Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about motivation intent and behavior is a serious shortcoming Overall research about climate change impacts on China has been undertaken piecemeal discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications separately considered from physical effects This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energyeconomic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities 39 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank 40 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views i Central Intelligence Agency The World Factbook s v “China ” December 18 2008 https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook geos ch html accessed January 15 2009 ii Office of Energy Markets and End Use of the Energy Information Administration “World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels 1980-2006 ” International Energy Annual 2006 Table H 1co2 December 8 2008 http www eia doe gov pub international iealf tableh1co2 xls accessed January 15 2009 iii The Economist “The Second Long March ” 50 December 13 2008 30-32 iv AFP “China has close to 300 million Internet users survey ” 2009 http www google com hostednews afp article ALeqM5itHR2mvBO4sthzW-a46C87nbKyjQ accessed January 15 2009 v United Nations Development Programme “2007 2008 Human Development Report 15 Inequality in income or expenditure ” World Development Indicators 2007 from the World Bank 2007 http hdrstats undp org indicators 147 html accessed January 7 2009 vi The Economist “The Second Long March ” 50 December 13 2008 30-32 vii Xinhua News Agency “Building harmonious society crucial for China’s progress Hu ” People’s Daily Online June 2005 http english peopledaily com cn 200506 27 eng20050627_192495 html accessed January 7 2009 viii Maureen Fan “China’s Party Leadership Declares New Priority ‘Harmonious Society’” The Washington Post A18 October 12 2006 http www washingtonpost com wpdyn content article 2006 10 11 AR2006101101610 html accessed January 7 2009 ix Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the U S Department of State s v “Background Note China ” October 2008 http www state gov r pa ei bgn 18902 htm accessed January 7 2009 x Miao Hong “China battles pollution amid full-speed economic growth ” Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United Kingdom of the Great Britain and Northern Ireland September 29 2006 http www chineseembassy org uk eng zt Features t274443 htm accessed January 7 2009 xi Reuters “Experts react to China’s climate change plan ” Department of Climate Change National Development and Reform Commission June 4 2007 http www ccchina gov cn en NewsInfo asp NewsId 7974 accessed January 7 2009 xii Department of Climate Change at the National Development and Reform Commission s v “Organization Structure Brief Introduction of National Coordination Committee on Climate Change ” http www ccchina gov cn en Public_Right asp class 25 accessed January 15 2009 xiii Yvo de Boer “Technology Development and Technology Transfer” address Beijing High-Level Conference on Climate Change Beijing November 7-8 2008 http unfccc int files press news_room statements application pdf 081107_speech_beijing pdf accessed January 15 2009 xiv National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xv Xinhua News Agency “President Hu elaborates on China’s stance on climate change ” People’s Daily Online February 9 2008 http english peopledaily com cn 90001 90776 90883 6445252 html accessed January 7 2009 xvi Associated Press “Ex-bad China praised at climate talks ” International Herald Tribune December 3 2008 http www iht com articles ap 2008 12 03 business EU-Poland-Climate-China php accessed January 15 2009 xvii Patrick Wintour and Will Woodward “Climate blame for India as Brown praises Chinese role ” The Guardian January 19 2008 http www guardian co uk politics 2008 jan 19 uk china accessed January 15 2009 xviii BBC s v “Weather - Country Guide China ” http www bbc co uk weather world country_guides results shtml tt TT002100 accessed January 14 2009 xix For other maps of China go to http www chinamaps org index html and http www lib utexas edu maps map_sites country_sites html#china xx Xiao Y Zhang Richard Arimoto and Zhi S An “Dust emission from Chinese desert sources linked to variations in atmospheric circulation ” J Geophys Res 102 no D23 1997 28 041-28 047 xxi Liu “A comprehensive dust aerosol model is developed and fully coupled to the U S Navy’s operational Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System COAMPS2 ” Weather and Forecasting 22 Issue 1 February 2007 192-206 DOI 10 1175 WAF971 1 xxii X Y Zhang S L Gong T L Zhao R Arimoto Y Q Wang and Z J Zhou “Sources of Asian dust and role of climate change versus desertification in Asian dust emission ” Geophys Res Lett 30 no 24 2003 2272 doi 10 1029 2003GL018206 41 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views xxiii International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies “China Floods ” Emergency appeal no MDRCN001 August 2 2006 xxiv Ding Yihui Ren Guoyu Shi Guangyu Gong Peng Zheng Xunhua Zhai Panmao Zhang De’er Zhao Zongci Wang Shaowu Wang Huijun Luo Yong Chen Deliang Gao Xuejie and Dai Xiaosu “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change I Climate change in China and the future trend ” Adv Clim Change Res 3 Suppl 2007 1-5 xxv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xxvi P M Zhai A J Sun F M Ren et al “Changes of climatic extremes in China ” Climatic Change 42 no 1 1999 203-218 xxvii S Menon J Hansen L Nazarenko and Y Luo “Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India ” Sciences 297 2002 2250-2253 xxviii Q Xu “Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution ” Atmos Environ 35 2001 5029-5040 xxix John Bohannon “Climate Change The Big Thaw Reaches Mongolia’s Pristine North” Science 319 no 5863 2008 567 doi 10 1126 science 319 5863 567 xxx Rasmus Benestad and Mauri Pelto 2008 Encyclopedia of Earth ed Cutler J Cleveland Washington D C Environmental Information Coalition National Council for Science and the Environment s v “Regional climate change assessment ” First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth July 2 2008 Last revised August 28 2008 xxxi U S Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols eds Hiram Levy II Drew Shindell Alice Gilliland M Daniel Schwarzkopf Larry W Horowitz Anne M Walpe Washington D C Department of Commerce at the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 2008 http www climatescience gov Library sap sap3-2 final-report sap3-2-final-report-all pdf accessed January 15 2009 xxxii Ding Yihui et al “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change I Climate change in China and the future trend ” Adv Clim Change Res 3 Suppl 2007 1-5 xxxiii Gao Xuejie Zhao Zongci Ding Yihui et al “Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model ” Adv Atmos Sci 18 no 6 2001 1224-1230 xxxiv Xu Yinlong Huang Xiaoying Zhang Yong Lin Wantao and Lin Erda “Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century ” Adv Clim Change Res 2 Suppl 1 2006 50-53 xxxv N Nakicenovic and R Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 xxxvi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis ed S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xxxvii Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Wu Shaohong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Adv Clim Change Res 3 Suppl 2007 6-11 Article ID 1673-1719 xxxviii Yundi Jiang “Future trends of climatic belts and seasons in China ” Int J Climatol 28 2008 1483-1491 xxxix Yundi Jiang “Future trends of climatic belts and seasons in China ” Int J Climatol 28 2008 1483-1491 xl T R Knutson and R E Tuleya “Impacts of CO2 induced warming on simulated hurricane intensities and precipitation sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization ” J Climate 17 2004 3477-3495 xli Ning Zeng Yihui Ding Jiahua Pan Huijun Wang Jay Gregg “Climate Change—the Chinese Challenge ” Science 319 no 5864 2008 730-731 xlii Xuejie Gao and Zhao Zongci “Changes of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Simulations over East Asia ” Adv in Atm Sciences 18 no 6 2001 xliii Xu Yinlong Huang Xiaoying Zhang Yong Lin Wantao and Lin Erda “Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century ” Adv Clim Change Res 2 Suppl 1 2006 50J53 xliv Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Advances in Climate Change Research 2007 3 Suppl 6-11 xlv Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Advances in Climate Change Research 2007 3 Suppl 6-11 42 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views xlvi Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Advances in Climate Change Research 2007 3 Suppl 6-11 xlvii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xlviii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 xlix Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 l Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Wu Shaohong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Adv Clim Change Res 3 Suppl 2007 6-11 Article ID 1673-1719 li Ben Blanchard “Climate change may fuel China’s forest fires ” Independent Online Pty Ltd January 10 2007 http www iol co za index php set_id 1 click_id 126 art_id qw1168413484320B255 accessed January 7 2009 lii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 liii Fang Jing-yun “Forest Productivity in China and Its Response to Global Climate Change ” Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 24 no 5 2000 513-517 liv Z Y Gao J Y Liu M Q Cao K R Li and P Tao “Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Regional Net Productivity ” Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 59 no 4 2004 581-591 lv Celine Boisvenue and Steven W Running “Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century ” Global Change Biology 12 2006 1–21 lvi X Chen B Hu R Yu et al “Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China ” Global Change Biology 11 2005 1118–1130 lvii Wang Shu and Jia Hepang “Climate Change ‘boosts plant health in China’” Science and Development Network December 14 2007 http www scidev net en news climate-change-boosts-plant-health-in-china html accessed January 15 2009 lviii Guodong Cheng and Tonghua Wu “Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ” Journal of Geophysical Research 112 June 8 2007 doi 10 1029 2006JF000631 http www agu org journals jf jf0702 2006JF000631 accessed January 7 2009 lix Hao Xin “A Green Fervor Sweeps the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau ” Science 321 August 1 2008 633-635 lx National Development and Reform Commission “National Climate Change Program ” The China Internet Information Center June 4 2007 http www china org cn english environment 213624 htm#8 accessed January 7 2009 lxi Jiang Yuxia ed “Impact of climate change on China ” Xinhua News Agency June 4 2007 http news xinhuanet com english 2007-06 04 content_6197206 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability M Parry O Canziani J Palutikof P van der Linden C Hanson eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge U K lxiii World Wildlife Fund “An Overview of Glaciers Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal India and China ” WWF Nepal Programme March 2005 http assets panda org downloads himalayaglaciersreport2005 pdf accessed January 14 2009 lxiv Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxv P Martin O Canziani J Palutikof P Linden and C Hanson eds Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Cambridge Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 104 lxvi National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 43 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views lxvii M Y Du S Kawashima S Yonemura X Z Zhang and S B Chen “Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years ” Global Planetary Change 41 2004 241-249 lxviii Lin Erda Xu Yinlong Ju Hui and Ma Shiming “China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change II Climate change impacts and adaptation ” Advances in Climate Change Research 3 Suppl 2007 6-11 lxix Ding Yiwen “China dealt with climate change with full efforts ” Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Federated States of Micronesia 2007 http fm china-embassy org chn XHTG t368789 htm accessed January 15 2009 lxx C X Li D D Fan B Deng et al “The coasts of China and issues of sea level rise ” Journal of Coastal Research 43 2004 36-49 lxxi Fan Daidu and Li Congxian “Complexities of China’s Coast in Response to Climate Change ” Advance in Climate Change Research 2006 1673-1719 lxxii International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights Paris Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency 2007 6 lxxiii China Daily “Heat wave threat to power supply ” People’s Daily Online July 8 2008 http english people com cn 90001 6443924 html accessed January 7 2009 lxxiv World Meteorological Center “2008 Among the 10 Warmest Years Marked by Weather Extremes and Lowest Level of Artic Ice Cover ” December 19 2008 http yubanet com scitech 2008-Among-the-10-WarmestYears php accessed January 7 2009 lxxv Gu Wei “China’s snow storm highlights shortages and spurs inflation ” International Herald Tribune and Business with Reuters February 6 2008 http www iht com articles 2008 02 06 business rtrcol07 php accessed January 7 2009 lxxvi Xinhua News Agency “Transport resumes in frozen S China ” The China Internet Information Center February 5 2008 http www china org cn china local 2008-02 05 content_1242181 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxxvii Du Xiaodan ed “China hit by natural disasters extreme weather continues ” China Central Television May 22 2007 http www cctv com english 20070522 102408_1 shtml accessed January 7 2009 lxxviii Xinhua News Agency “Deadly typhoon claims 164 lives in China ” People’s Daily Online August 17 2004 http english people com cn 200408 17 eng20040817_153438 html accessed January 7 2009 lxxix E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press lxxx Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxxxi National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxxxii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 lxxxiii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxxxiv Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 lxxxv National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 lxxxvi NationMaster com s v “Agriculture in China ” http www nationmaster com encyclopedia Agriculture-in-China accessed January 15 2009 44 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views lxxxvii Central Intelligence Agency The World Factbook s v “China ” December 18 2008 https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook geos ch html accessed January 15 2009 lxxxviii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 lxxxix National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xc National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xci Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 xcii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xciii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xciv Du Guodong ed “China weather agency stresses updated forecasts for severe winter ” Xinhua News Agency January 2 2009 http news xinhuanet com english 2009-01 02 content_10591189 htm accessed January 15 2009 xcv Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 xcvi Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 xcvii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xcviii National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 xcix China Daily “Science Goals Set Out for 2020 ” January 30 2007 http en chinagate com cn english science 49947 htm accessed January 15 2009 c Xinhua News Agency “China to Increase Natural Science Research Investment by 20 percent ” March 22 2007 http en chinagate com cn english science 50502 htm accessed January 7 2009 ci National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China China’s National Climate Programme June 2007 http www ccchina gov cn WebSite CCChina UpFile File188 pdf accessed January 15 2009 cii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 ciii Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change ” Beijing October 2008 http www gov cn english 200810 29 content_1134544 htm accessed January 7 2009 civ Liang Chao “Experts warn of water crisis ” China Daily April 20 2005 http www chinadaily com cn english doc 2005-04 20 content_435724 htm accessed January 15 2009 cv The eastern route which most follows the ancient Grand Canal is largely done The central section was scheduled to begin operating in 2010 but has been delayed 4 years cvi http www popyard com cgi-mod newspage cgi num 267461 r 0 v 0 AD In Chinese cvii http big5 xinhuanet com gate big5 lw xinhuanet com htm content_4253 htm AD In Chinese 45 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This Paper does not Represent US Government Views cviii OECD IEA “Top 1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Programme China ” Addressing Climate Change Policies and Measures 2006 http www iea org textbase pm mode cc id 3542 action detail accessed January 15 2009 http www iea org textbase pm mode cc id 3971 action detail cix OECD IEA “Efficient Lightbulb Subsidy Programme China ” Addressing Climate Change Policies and Measures 2008 http www iea org textbase pm mode cc id 3971 action detail accessed January 15 2009 cx Bin Shui et al “Country Report on Building Energy Codes in China” working paper Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA 2009 46 This Paper does not Represent US Government Views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Russia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report Prepared By Joint Global Change Research Institute and Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest Division The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-04D April 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication—explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security EastLink Consulting LLC collaborating with the Joint Global Change Research Institute JGCRI and Battelle Pacific Northwest Division Battelle PNWD developed this assessment on the climate change impact on Russia through 2030 under a contract with SCITOR Corporation The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist serving as the Executive Agent for the DNI supported and funded the contract This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on Russia drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting It includes such impact as sea level rise water availability agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns This paper addresses the extent to which regions within Russia are vulnerable to climate change impact The targeted time frame is to 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames This assessment also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impact on Russia and other countries regions 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary Russia is already experiencing the impacts of climate change in the form of milder winters melting permafrost changing precipitation patterns the spread of disease and increased incidence of drought flooding and other extreme weather events Many of these observed climate impacts are having concrete negative effects on Russians’ quality of life By 2030 Russia will start to feel the impacts of climate change in relation to both water and food supply Nonetheless a significant portion of the country’s senior leaders continue to voice the view that a warming climate is a net benefit for Russia Russia has a number of attributes that provide a greater capacity for resilience than some other industrialized countries and most developing countries However as the impacts of climate change continue and intensify over the coming years Russia’s capacity to adapt and protect its people will be severely tested The most important impacts of climate change in Russia will likely include the following • Energy A warming climate holds the possibility of milder and shorter heating seasons which in turn may lead to reduced Russian energy demand Increased water availability—particularly along those Siberian rivers that are used for hydroelectric power—should result in increased power production in certain parts of the country However existing and future energy infrastructure for the all-important petroleum industry will experience more pronounced challenges— structural subsidence risks associated with river crossings and construction difficulties as permafrost thaws earlier and deeper impeding the construction of vital new production areas These latter challenges have the potential for a material negative impact on the single-greatest source of revenue to the Russian state—the oil and gas industry • Water Many parts of Russia’s massive territory will experience increases in the availability of water including much of Siberia the Far North and northwestern Russia This change will bring certain positive impacts—including for hydroelectric generation above However managing the increased flows will pose other problems especially when these increased flows coincide with extreme weather events such as downpours or springtime ice-clogged floods In addition increasing water shortages are predicted for southern parts of European Russia areas that already experience significant socioeconomic and sociopolitical stresses Moreover a number of densely populated Russian regions that are already subject to water shortages are expected to face even more pronounced difficulties in decades to come • Agriculture As growing seasons become longer and precipitation patterns change using lands for agricultural purposes that previously would have been too far north—too cold for too much of the year—will become possible Raising new crops and new varieties of crops that are currently grown in Russia also could become possible However a changing climate may not be hospitable to expanded agriculture A key question is whether the longer growing seasons and the warmer Russian agricultural lands will result in increased yields Yields of existing crops may fail and whether new crops will succeed remains to be seen Agriculture will become more reliant on irrigation especially in the southern parts of European 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Russia pesticides and herbicides and more vulnerable to droughts and other extreme weather • Migration Russia which is already the number two destination for immigrants after the United States is likely to experience greater migration pressure from Central Asia the Caucasus countries Mongolia and northeastern China These latter areas are expected to experience increased water shortages and resulting economic stress In addition internal migration pressures may occur as residents in Russia’s many northern cities face increasing economic and climate-related challenges • Accentuation of existing socioeconomic and sociopolitical stresses Russia is better equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change than many of its neighbors Nonetheless by 2030 climate change appears likely to accentuate some of the stresses that currently plague Russia Some of the most affected regions are areas where already socioeconomic and sociopolitical relations are attenuated and unsettled Most of the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves in smaller cities and in the Russian countryside For example the longturbulent North Caucasus region will be drier hotter and less prosperous than it is today The Primorskiy Kray and the Russian Far East which have long struggled to develop peacefully next to China appear likely to experience even greater migration pressures which could exacerbate longstanding cross-border tensions 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 7 Current Climatology of Russia Projected Regional Climate Change Climate Observations Climate Predictions Modeling Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation Permafrost and Arctic Ice Projections Projections of Changes in Agriculture Growing Seasons Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events 8 8 10 11 14 16 16 Impacts of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems Economic Growth and Development Energy Systems Food Production and Drinking Water Supply Transportation Systems Human Health Coping Capabilities in Facing Natural Disasters Other Urban Infrastructure International Issues 17 17 18 25 27 28 29 30 31 Adaptive Capacity Russian Adaptive Capacity in a Global Context Strengths Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments 32 33 38 Conclusions High Risk Impacts 39 Annexes A Accuracy of Regional Models 41 B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Russia and Russia’s Adaptive Capacity 5 This paper does not represent US Government views 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background Current Climatology of Russiai Russia has the largest amount of land area of any country in the world Most of this area is more than 400 kilometers from the sea with the center of the country being almost 4 000 kilometers from the sea The terrain ranges from grassy steppes in the south to frigid tundra in the polar north The treeless marshy tundra comprises almost 10 percent of the country Russia’s topography includes the world’s deepest lake and Europe’s highest mountain and its landscape contains all the major vegetation zones of the world except a tropical rain forest More than half of the country is above 60° north latitude and is covered with snow for almost half of the year Less than one percent of Russia’s population lives in the northernmost part of the country from the Finnish border to the Bering Strait This area shaped by glaciation in the last ice age continues to be subject to erosion by frost weathering Rivers here flow north to the Arctic Ocean often hampering drainage of lakes and ponds across the tundra Summer nights called “white” nights are so short that dawn comes shortly after dusk Vegetation above the permafrost consists mostly of mosses lichen and dwarf trees and shrubs Russia’s large forested region called the taiga comprises an area about the size of the United States and contains primarily coniferous trees such as spruce cedar larch and fir The region includes most of European Russia and about one-third of Russia’s people live there The annual average temperature of this region is below freezing the northern part of this region is one of the coldest inhabited areas on Earth The steppes often imaged as typical Russian landscape are treeless grassy plains occasionally interrupted by mountain ranges Located from south of Moscow to the Black and Caspian seas this is the only region that has a relatively temperate climate and is suited to agriculture However the region occasionally experiences catastrophic droughts and short intense periods of precipitation At the southernmost part of the region a narrow subtropical climate warms the edges of the Black Sea and provides Russia’s only warm resort area Most of Russia receives little precipitation In the south and east mountain ranges prevent Indian and Pacific Ocean winds from bringing precipitation and warmer temperatures inland The highest levels of precipitation are in the northwest region of the country with levels decreasing toward southeast and European Russia The wettest areas are along the Pacific coast and near the Caucasus A monsoonal climate along Russia’s Pacific coast brings seasonally high amounts of precipitation reversing the direction of winds in summer and winter In winter steady winds tend to blow from the south and southwest across most of the country In summer winds come from the north and northwest This reversal of the winds causes less temperature variation than might be expected between winter and summer For January the average temperatures are -8 degrees Celsius °C in St Petersburg -27°C in the West Siberian Plain and -43°C at Yakutsk east-central Siberia at about the same latitude as St Petersburg In the summer the Arctic islands average 4°C and the southernmost regions of Russia average 20°C 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Projected Regional Climate Change Climate Observations Temperature trends over most of the Arctic and northern Russia before about 1920 were likely dominated by natural variability ii It is difficult to explain increasing temperatures since 1920 without including the impacts of human emissions of greenhouse gases Average temperatures over the past decade are the warmest ever measured in the documented history of climate records in Russia Studies by Roshydromet iii the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring show that annual average temperatures over Russia have increased significantly during the past 10 years the models suggest a continuation of this trend over the next five to 10 years Such conclusions are supported by the findings of other Russian agencies the Russian Academy of Sciences in particular and by most foreign scientists Figure 1 Data collected by the Roshydromet surface network of hydrometeorological observations show that during 1990-2000 the mean annual surface air temperature increased by 0 4°C During the previous hundred years the increase was only about 1 0°C Warming is more evident in winter and spring and more intensive east of the Urals iv Temperatures in the Arctic are rising at almost double the rate of the global average In many inland Arctic regions surface air temperatures have warmed 0 2°C per decade over the past 30 years Sea ice in the Arctic has decreased by 3 percent per decade between 1978 and 1996 and summer sea ice thickness has decreased by 40 percent since the 1950s v Precipitation at high latitudes has increased by 15 percent over the past decade with most of this increase occurring over the past 40 years vi Arctic summers are now warmer than at any time in at least the past 400 years The fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC climate change assessment AR4 vii reported that in areas of the boreal north the liquid precipitation season has become longer by up to three weeks over the past 50 years Increasing winter temperatures in the northern regions has considerably changed the ice regime1 of the region’s water bodies Comparing the years 2010-2015 with 1950-1979 the assessment predicts that in the later period ice cover duration on the rivers in Siberia is expected to be 15-27 days shorter and maximum ice cover thinner by 20-40 percent Also an annual increase of 5 percent was observed in river flow with a winter increase of 25-90 percent over the base flow due to increased melt and thawing permafrost Winter snowfall and snow depth in the Northern Hemisphere’s high latitude regions have increased during the past few decades this trend is likely to be associated with increasing precipitation related to surface air warming This trend is supported by significant positive trends in winter temperatures across much of the former Soviet Union in the past 50 years viii Most recent research shows that Siberian permafrost temperatures rose considerably during the latter half of the 20th century although the extent to which this can be attributed entirely to climate warming is currently unknown Recent research revealed positive warming trends for all permafrost regions in response to positive trends in air temperature with the strongest warming trend in regions of continuous permafrost A slight cooling trend is found only for the topmost soil layers in regions of seasonally frozen ground at the southern margins of the region draining into the Arctic 1 An ice regime is a region of generally consistent ice conditions Ice types are measured in a range from grey ice 0- 15 m to permanent ice 3 m See ftp ftp2 chc nrc ca CRTreports ISOPE_98_IRS_database pdf 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 1 Surface air temperature increase in Russia the Northern Hemisphere and the world 1900-2004 Source Dobrolyubova Julia Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Regional Environmental Centre November 19-20 2007 slides Melting permafrost serves as another revealing indicator of climate change Significant areas of the Russian permafrost zone which covers 60 percent of the country the largest such region in the world falling under a single nation’s jurisdiction clearly show a trend of temperature increase in the top layers of frozen ground from the 1970s to the 1990s corresponding with the warming of the atmosphere Although climate change in European Russia is less severe than in Siberia the change in the condition of frozen terrain is no less substantial In the past 20-30 years temperatures in the frozen ground of Russia’s European Arctic and Subarctic have increased between 0 22 and 1 56°C matching increases in the number and thickness of taliks thawed underground pockets These observations suggest a progressive increase in seasonally thawing soil as well as a 14-80 percent increase in thawed pockets of soil in individual regions of the Russian Arctic ix Areas of seasonal frost have also shifted noticeably northward and the area of isolated and sporadic pockets of frozen soil has decreased x Although deeper layers of frozen soil are insulated against thawing by icy strata and organic soil and vegetation models suggest that deeper seasonal thawing may change the composition of plant and animal communities xi Natural tundra will likely grow smaller disappear entirely as a result 2 xii Satellite-derived measurements of snowfall show a spring and summertime decrease likely due to increased temperatures Snow accumulation over Russia accounts for about 5 percent of fresh water discharge to the Arctic Ocean Significant changes in fresh water discharge have affected the salinity sea ice distribution and circulation of the Arctic and nearby oceans North of 50° N 2 The source does not provide an exact date of when natural tundra depletion may occur other than mentioning that the change in composition of plant and animal communities is already occurring “Although deeper layers of frozen soil are insulated against thawing by intermediate icy strata and a layer of organic soil and vegetation models demonstrate that further deepening of seasonal thawing as a result of rising air temperatures may upset that balance Should this happen it will change and this is already occurring the composition of plant and animal communities and existing natural complexes of the tundra may severely dwindle or disappear entirely ” http assets panda org downloads wwf_arctica_eng_1 pdf 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views latitude annual precipitation has increased by about 4 percent over the past 50 years especially over Russia’s permafrost-free zone and the entire Great Russian Plain Over northern Russia snow is providing a declining fraction of total annual precipitation The 20th century saw a trend of increased river output from the six largest Eurasian rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean xiii A similar trend is found in the climate simulation for the same period by the Hadley Centre's coupled climate model when the effects of manmade greenhouse gases are included This finding is in line with predictions that global warming will cause changes in the water cycle Studies have shown that runoff in the Lena River increases in winter spring and especially the summer and discharges decrease in autumn These changes in seasonal streamflow characteristics indicate a hydrologic regime shift toward early snowmelt and higher summer streamflow perhaps due to regional climate warming and permafrost degradation in the southern parts of Siberia Winter snow accumulation is a major influence on summer and autumn discharge of the Ob and Yenisey Rivers and can affect winter and spring discharges of the Lena River suggesting the importance of topography and permafrost conditions to river discharges in high-latitude regions Climate Predictions Modeling Although Global Circulation or Climate Models GCMs can be used to infer climate changes in specific regions developing models that have a high resolution sufficient to resolve local and regional scale changes is preferable There are many challenges in reliably simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at regional and local scales At these scales natural climate variability can be relatively larger making it harder to distinguish long-term changes expected due to external forcings The procedure of estimating the response at local scales based on results predicted at larger scales is known as “downscaling ” The two main methods for deriving information about the local climate are 1 dynamical downscaling also referred to as “nested modeling” using “regional climate models” or “limited area models” and 2 statistical downscaling also referred to as “empirical” or “statistical-empirical” downscaling Chemical composition models include the emission of gases and particles as inputs and simulate their chemical interactions global transport by winds and removal by rain snow and deposition to the earth’s surface Downscaled regional climate models rely on global models to provide boundary conditions and the radiative effect of well-mixed greenhouse gases for the region to be modeled There are three primary approaches to numerical downscaling 1 limited-area models 2 stretched-grid models and 3 uniformly high resolution atmospheric GCMs AGCMs or coupled atmosphere-ocean -sea ice GCMs AOGCMs The magnitudes and patterns of the projected rainfall changes differ significantly among models probably due to their coarse resolution The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are strongly influenced by natural variability occurring on decadal scales but the Indian Ocean appears to be exhibiting a steady warming Natural variability from ENSO for example in ocean-atmosphere dynamics can lead to important differences in regional rates of surface-ocean warming that affect the atmospheric circulation and hence warming over land surfaces Including sulfate aerosols in the models damps the regional climate sensitivity but greenhouse warming still dominates the changes Models that include emissions of short-lived radiatively active gases and particles suggest that future climate changes could significantly increase maximum ozone levels in already 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views polluted regions Projected growth of emissions of radiatively active gases and particles in the models suggest that they may significantly influence the climate even out to year 2100 Stabilization emissions scenarios assume future emissions based on an internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces such as population socioeconomic development and technological change and their key relationships These emissions are constrained so that the resulting atmospheric concentrations of the substance level off at a predetermined value in the future For example if one assumes the global CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 450 parts per million ppm the current value is about 380 ppm the climate models can be tuned to produce this result The tuned model predictions for regional climate changes can be used to assess specific impacts at this stabilization level A more detailed discussion of the ability of the models to project regional climate changes can be found in Annex A Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation The IPCC AR4 does not include predictions specifically focused on Russia Most of the country is included within a modeling region referred to as Northern Asia NAS Warming in this region is expected to be well above the global mean—consistent with the more general result that high latitudes will and are warming more than low latitudes see Figure 2 This warming is particularly great in autumn and early winter when sea ice is thinnest and the snow depth is insufficient to blur the relationship between surface air temperature and sea ice thickness Precipitation is also very likely to increase Annex A xiv Figure 2 IPCC projected temperature increases for Northern Asia NAS including Russia Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901-1950 for the NAS land region for 1906-2005 black line and as simulated red envelope by multi-model datasets incorporating known forcings and as projected for 2001-2100 for the A1B scenario orange envelope The bars at right represent the range of projected changes for 2091-2100 for the B1 blue the A1B orange and the A2 red scenarios Source Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 hyperlink accessed February 17 2009 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change xv The region is warming much more rapidly than the global average The IPCC report states that the winter warming of northern high latitude regions by the end of the century will be at least 40 percent greater than the global mean based on a number of models and emissions scenarios Temperature increases for the central Arctic are 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views projected to be about 3-4°C during the next 50 years Even an optimistic scenario for projecting future greenhouse gas emissions yields a result of a 4°C increase in autumn and winter average temperatures in the Arctic by the end of this century Recent satellite data show that the area covered with perennial ice in the Arctic Ocean has receded significantly in recent years falling to nearly half the area observed in 2005 During the 21st century the thaw depth will increase substantially summer soil moisture will eventually be reduced and a poleward movement of the permafrost extent is expected Based on three global climate models Canadian Climate Center scenario GFDL scenario and ECHAM scenario a 30-40 percent increase in active layer thickness for most of the permafrost area is projected with the largest relative increases concentrated in the northernmost locations xvi Regionally the changes are a response to both increased temperature and increased precipitation changes in circulation patterns In a few regions Siberia for example the amount of snow is projected to increase because of the increase in precipitation snowfall from autumn to winter Consistent results from the majority of the current generation of models show for a future warmer climate that a poleward shift of storm tracks occurs with greater storm activity at higher latitudes xvii Most models ignore the effect of land cover change in future projections Past and future changes in land cover may affect the climate in several ways causing changes in albedo in the ratio of latent to sensible heat and therefore in surface temperature and in CO2 fluxes to and from the land No coupled AOGCM has included all the effects of land cover changes The general consensus is that land cover changes may be very important at the regional level where these changes occur At the regional level the Russian Federation has considerable experience in climate modeling with three centers of research St Petersburg V A Fock Institute of Physics Institute for Numerical Mathematics INM in Moscow and the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics in the Russian Academy of Sciences IAP-RAS in Moscow Both the INM and the IAP-RAS have their own climate models although only the former submitted simulation data as part of the IPCC fourth assessment process Table 1 shows the 2080-2099 temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models The numbers represent average mean changes from the period 1980-1999 over the 21 models For each season the minimum 25 percent 50 percent 75 percent and maximum changes are shown For example for the winter DJF or December January and February the average minimum temperature increase is 2 9°C and the average precipitation change is 12 percent The five-to-10-year projections of the Russian hydro-dynamical climate modelsxviii match very well with the model projections of the IPCC AR4xix when the same scenarios and assumptions are used xx These projections suggest that the mean annual surface air temperature over Russia will increase over the next five to 10 years by 0 60oC±0 2 from the annual mean temperature in the year 2000 The increase in temperature will vary by region but by 2015 the average winter temperatures will have increased by an additional 1°C In summer the increase is only expected to be 0 40°C During this same period annual averaged precipitation is projected to increase by 4-6 percent with the increase being as much as 7-9 percent north of Eastern Siberia xxi 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This table is UNCLASSIFIED Table 1 Regional averages of temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models in the MMD for the A1B scenario for the region of Northern Asia NAS 50°N 40°E 70°N 180°E The table shows the minimum maximum median 50 percent and 25 and 75 percent quartile values among the 21 models for temperature °C and precipitation percent change The changes are calculated as the 2080-2099 mean with respect to the 1980-1999 mean DJF December January February MAM March April May JJA June July August SON September October November Source Table 11 1 in IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis ed S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 Maximum temperature increases are expected to occur in the winter in the Arctic xxii By the middle of the 21st century temperatures are projected to rise as much as 4-5oC in the Arkhangelsk region the Komi Republic the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area and over Taimyr xxiii Temperature increases in the summer in these regions are small However in the southern regions such as in the Northern Caucasus the Volga region and in the south of Western Siberia an increase of 2–3°C is projected According to an assessment done by the World Wildlife Fund 2008 xxiv an appreciable increase in winter precipitation totals is expected by 2050—notably a 30 percent increase on the Taymyr Peninsula and a 15-20 percent increase in Chukotka and the Barents Sea region This increase in precipitation is expected to continue throughout the second half of the century Total precipitation will more than double current values in the eastern Russian Arctic consequently forming a deep layer of snow and reducing the period of soil freeze in winter Alternatively summer precipitation totals will increase only 5-10 percent by 2050 and 10-20 percent by the end of the 21st century with the increase being slightly larger in the eastern part of the Arctic An increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall is forecasted for the same region effectively accelerating coastline erosion Throughout the Arctic there will be more rainfall than evaporation despite predicted increases in evaporation due to warming xxv The result is the formation of bogs3 more likely prominent along the central and eastern Arctic coast Trends of wintertime snow mass accumulation vary over the country In European Russia that is Russia east of the Urals and south of Western Siberia snow mass is expected to decrease compared with long-term mean values By 2015 a 10-15 percent decrease is expected In most of the rest of Russia snow accumulation is expected to increase by 2-4 percent xxvi 3 According to the US Environmental Protection Agency bogs are “characterized by spongy peat deposits acidic waters and a floor covered by a thick carpet of sphagnum moss Bogs receive all or most of their water from precipitation rather than from runoff groundwater or streams As a result bogs are low in the nutrients needed for plant growth a condition that is enhanced by acid forming peat mosses ” See http www epa gov owow wetlands types bog html 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Projected changes in annual river runoff vary across the country Winter runoff is projected to increase from 60-90 percent in the Central and Volga Federal Districts and from 5-40 percent in other Federal Districts In the Black Earth area and in the south of the Siberia Federal District springtime river runoff is projected to decrease by 10-20 percent xxvii Permafrost and Arctic Ice Projections According to a collaborative report led by Climate Change Risk Management CCRM xxviii seasonal thaw depths are predicted to increase around 2050 by more than 50 percent in the northernmost permafrost regions and 30-50 percent elsewhere By 2100 it is predicted that almost 60 percent of current permafrost regions will thaw and freeze on a seasonal basis xxix Increased precipitation contributes to the thawing of frozen soils and is projected to lead to a 14 percent increase in freshwater discharge into the Arctic Ocean Modelers warn that there are significant uncertainties in model projections of changes to the permafrost xxx A coupled climate-permafrost model was used by Anisimov and Renava 2006 xxxi to calculate changes in permafrost extent and thickness for three timeslices Model results predict a reduction of near-surface permafrost area by 11 percent 18 percent and 23 percent by 2030 2050 and 2080 respectively Contractions of near-surface permafrost over these same periods are 18 percent 29 percent and 41 percent respectively Despite the uncertainties most modelers agree that seasonal thaw depths will increase by more than 50 percent in the northern Russia including much of Siberia and the Far East and by 30 percent to 50 percent in most other permafrost regions xxxii Figure 3 shows the projected changes in active-layer permafrost thickness in northern Eurasia by 2050 Increased methane emissions from the melting permafrost will be a significant feedback on radiative forcing and climate change Projected changes in the permafrost to the year 2050 are shown in Figure 3 Most models project that summer ice will decline much more rapidly than winter ice xxxiii Arctic sea ice is projected to decrease more rapidly than other sea ice xxxiv Some scientists suggest that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer in the next 10-20 years xxxv 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 3 Projected 2050 changes of the active-layer permafrost thickness in northern Eurasia relative to present-day simulations based on forcing from three different global climate models a CCC Canadian Climate Center scenario b GFDL scenario c ECHAM scenario From Anisimov and Reneva 2006 Source Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons The decline in the number of very cold winters in many regions across Russia has led to better conditions for growing winter crops In the Central Black-Earth and Volga regions the frequency of very cold winters has decreased from an average of 18-22 percent in the period up to 1990 to 8-10 percent in the past several years xxxvi In Northern Caucasia this frequency has been reduced from 10 percent to 4 percent Conditions for growing corn have improved in many areas of European Russia In the Stavropol Territory “climate-related”xxxvii corn yield has increased 30 percent over the past 20 years but in parts of Asian Russia e g the Baikal corn yield has decreased From 1970 to 2000 the growing season with air temperatures above 5oC lengthened by an average of approximately 5-10 days over much of the agricultural region in European Russia However frost-free periods did not lengthen xxxviii If this trend continues agricultural production may increase significantly by 2015 The growing season is likely to be significantly lengthened Both the growing season and duration of frost-free days may be increased on the order of 10-20 days per year xxxix Many plant species may experience a northward migration of growing boundaries On the Siberian rivers and in the Kama River basin a reduction of the freeze period of as many as 15-27 days is expected by 2010-2015 Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events Changes in the frequency of extreme events may be one of the most damaging consequences of climate change Climate change over the past 10-20 years in Russia has been linked to extreme events including heat waves floods and fires The IPCC assessmentxl reports a substantial increase in the number of days with more than 10 millimeters of rain in Siberia causing a 50-70 percent increase in surface runoff There were also a significant increase in the number of fires in Siberian peatlands and more frequent flooding in Russian Arctic rivers due to heavy rain and earlier breakup of river ice xli Satellite measurements show that vegetation fires mostly forest fires occurred over about 10 million hectares during 1997-2003 Outbreaks of disease-carrying insects also occurred in the northern part of the country where outbreaks have never been observed in the past xlii Observations suggest that large floods are already more frequent xliii By 2015 there is likely to be more flooding in river basins in the Archangelsk Region the Komi Republic the Ural area and in the basins of Enisei and Lena xliv In the Arctic increased water discharges occurring earlier in the spring may be blocked by ice jams causing the duration of inundated flood plains to increase from the current 12 days to 24 days In the past five years the Lena one of the world’s 10 largest rivers has experienced two floods more severe that any previous recorded flood xlv Ice-jam-induced floods in the Lena River Basin are expected to double by 2015 Flooding in the Far East and the Maritime areas is expected to double or triple In the mountain and submountain regions of Northern Caucasia Republics of North Caucasia Stavropol Region and in the Western and Eastern Sayan Mountains more mudflow and landslide hazards are expected xlvi In St Petersburg the probability of a disastrous flood is expected to increase in the next 5-10 years xlvii The average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7 percent between 1936 and 1999 xlviii Peterson et al 2002 Wu et al 2005 and Shiklomanov et al 2006 xlix project Russian river discharges will continue to increase at an 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views accelerated rate The average projected change in annual discharge in large Russian rivers is around 15 percent range -12 to 45 percent l Annual discharge in the Yenisey Ob Lena and Kolyma rivers are projected to change by 6-45 percent -12-45 percent 12-45 percent and 10-45 percent respectively li All experienced significantly larger increases in winter discharges—as much as 325 percent in a high-sensitivity scenario 4ºC lii Over this century increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are expected in western and central Europe possibly including parts of Russia A record-breaking heat wave occurred in central Europe in summer 2003 This event was the hottest since instrumental records began around 1780 1 4°C above the previous warmest in 1807 and is very likely to have been the hottest since at least 1500 liii Hazardous events due to the changes in permafrost are expected to increase by 2015 liv Melting of permafrost islands will lead to increases in landslides mudflows and other dramatic and abrupt changes in the landscape lv When a glacier recedes unstable glacial lakes are formed that increase the likelihood of glacier-related outbursts and debris slides Glacier retreat between 1985 and 2000 has resulted in a 3-6 percent increase in the proportion of glaciers covered by debris increasing the melt rate and the likelihood of glacier-related significant events such as rock and mud slides lvi On both the Baltic and Pacific coasts a rise in sea level may result in the coastline being more vulnerable to tsunamis Studies of the Baltic region have stressed the possibility that tsunami activity could profoundly affect the coastline Some of the largest tsunamis ever observed have occurred along the Pacific coast which is prone to tsunamis The IPCC 2007 assessment identifies the Baltic and White seas as areas of probable increased flooding and erosion lvii Over large areas of Russia the number of both high-intensity and mid-intensity fire-hazard days is expected to increase By 2015 the number of fire-hazard days may increase by more than five days in a season on most of the territory The areas most likely to experience an increased duration of fire-hazard days more than 7 days in a season include areas south of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area and in Kurgan Omsk Novosibirsk Kemerovo and Tomsk Regions Krasnoyarsk and Altai Territories Sakha-Yakutia Republic lviii Impacts of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems In Russia the socioeconomic impact of climate change has long been controversial Some of Russia’s most prominent climate scientists have argued persistently that a warming climate will bring net positive benefits for a cold massive country whose territory includes vast expanses of permafrost and undeveloped forests while others posit some unmitigated negatives While the debate continues among Russian observers the weight of scientific evidence points to a more complicated picture—some significant benefits as well as profound problems for human systems that have the potential to challenge Russia’s ability to respond Economic Growth and Development The Russia that will face the unfolding impacts of climate change between now and 2030 is a Russia newly grown accustomed to relative wealth No longer is it the economic basket case that it was in the 1980s and 1990s In fact until the global financial crisis began to bite in Russia in late 2008 the country had ridden a decade-long wave of economic good fortune following the crash of the Russian ruble in August 1998 Russia is extraordinarily dependent on its extractive industries and commodity production In addition the country’s development has been highly uneven with most wealth concentrated in the 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views capital Moscow Only a modest trickle-down effect has occurred in smaller cities and virtually none has occurred in rural areas Most of the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves in smaller cities and in the Russian countryside Another consideration that relates to the advance of climate change impacts is the role of the government in people’s everyday lives During Soviet times government was highly intrusive but simultaneously was the source of considerable private skepticism “We pretend to work they pretend to pay us ” was one of the core folk wisdoms Government did however provide services that ensured a minimum standard of living for nearly all citizens In today’s Russia many people have arguably even less expectation that the government will provide for their minimum requirements But if climate change begins to wreak serious humanitarian impacts such as recurrent massive flooding or the collapse of aging infrastructure and if the government is not in a position to respond in a commensurate way one of the key questions will be whether climate change prompts political unrest For the time being we judge this to be a significant but unresolvable open question Energy Systems The stable operation of energy systems is a major technological challenge for a country as massive as Russia It is also a matter of vital importance to everyday Russians whose day-to-day survival depends on the timely availability of heat and power in the face of Russia’s severe climate Energy systems are no less of a matter of survival for the Russian economy which stays afloat largely due to petroleum exports For these reasons the impacts of climate change on Russian energy systems are of exceptionally great importance The seasonality and geographical scope of climate change across Russia have significant implications for Russian changing energy demand between now and 2030 As is mentioned above mean temperature increase in Russia by 2030 is projected to be significant nationwide although more pronounced in the north and east of the country than in the south and west and more pronounced in winter and spring than in the summer or fall lix As shown in Figure 4 the projected climate warming is expected to lead to a reduction in the length and intensity of the heating season which has the potential to result in reduced energy consumption for heating Roshydromet projects that on average by 2015 the heating season will be three to five days shorter across the entire country lx In the eastern regions of Primorskiy Kray Sakhalin and Kamchatka the heating season may be more than five days shorter by 2015 Some regions may experience little if any reduction in the length of the heating season These trends are projected to extend and intensify by 2030 and beyond 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 4 Reduction in duration of the heating season Legend Zone 1 shows reduction of the length of the heating season by 0 0-1 9 percent Zone 2 -- 2 0-3 9 percent Zone 3 -- 4 0-5 9 percent Zone 4 -- 6 0-7 9 percent Zone 5 -- 8 0-10 0 percent Source Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 In areas that experience this change residents and workers may experience greater indoor comfort as heating systems and building envelopes will be better able to cope with the heating load For those regions that do experience a reduction the extent of the related energy savings is a matter of some debate even in official Russian government projections According to analysis presented in 2005 and 2008 by the Russian Federal Service on Hydrometeorology Roshydromet the reduction in heating days resulting from a warmer climate may not translate into saved fuel Even if there are fewer total heating days they may stretch out over the same period of the year⎯or even longerlxi ⎯because of increased temperature variability lxii This Roshydromet analysis contrasts with the Russian Federation’s Fourth National Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which was submitted in 2006 According to the Fourth National Communication the reduction in heating requirements by 2025 will result in a net fuel savings of 5-10 percent nationwide and greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 2 percent lxiii If the latter projection proves accurate the saved fuel could provide a significant economic benefit and potentially a significant balance-of-payments benefit provided that the saved fuel was exported instead of being consumed domestically Just as a changing climate is expected to affect energy demand in Russia so too will it affect energy supply On the supply side of the ledger the changing climate may affect hydroelectric power production electricity transmission and distribution systems and petroleum production and transportation systems 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Hydroelectric power production will realize some benefit and some negative impacts associated with the increase in flows of rivers that are used for hydroelectric production As is true with the question of the length of the heating season the net benefit or cost in 2020 remains ambiguous Many of the major Russian rivers will experience increased water flows due to glacial melt and selective regional precipitation changes For the most part this change will offer opportunities for increased power production According to Roshydromet the Volga-Kamsk Cascade will experience a net increase of 10-20 percent in water flows The reservoirs throughout the Northwest Federal District will experience a 5-10 percent increase and the massive Siberian power dams along the Angarsk-Yenisey Vilyu Kolyma and Zeya will experience increases ranging as high as 15 percent In addition certain hydro-electric reservoirs in the southern part of the country will experience reductions in productivity due to reduced water flow Nonetheless operating regimes for all power dams will require review in light of anticipated climate change according to Roshydromet In addition there will be increased challenges related to managing head and tail waters in the face of increased flows and particularly in relation to increased incidence of extreme downpours lxiv Another energy supply-related impact from climate change to 2030 will relate to electricity transmission systems One form of the heightened risk to power transmission will come from permafrost melt and the resulting creation of thermokarst and other unstable soil conditions Highvoltage power lines will be one of the many kinds of structures that will be susceptible to damage as upper soil layers thaw and re-freeze One particularly vulnerable transmission system will be the lines serving the Bilibino nuclear power plant on the Arctic coast and running from the town of Chersk to Pevek Another heightened risk for power transmission systems will be increased wind load on power stanchions as on other large structures Power lines in the North Caucasus as well as in the regions of Murmansk Arkhangelsk Leningrad portions of Sakha Yakutia Irkutsk Magadan Khantiy-Mansiysk and Evenkia will be exposed to 20 percent increases in wind force and may need to be reconstructed or reinforced as a consequence lxv Climate change by 2030 appears unlikely to sufficiently affect the Russian electric power sector as to lead to significant national security implications for the Russians However major power system failures could lead to serious human hardship and could therefore conceivably fuel political dissatisfaction in Russia If a major portion of one of Russia’s regional power grids were destabilized by the failure of a major power dam or if power supply lines failed due to unusually abrupt winds in the North Caucasus for example one could envision the potential for localized instability If the hydropower and power transmission industries face challenges as climate change intensifies even greater challenges face the petroleum industry with likely greater significance for the Russian economy and state In today’s Russia oil and gas are the predominant components of economic performance Together they represent on the order of 60 percent of total exports and one-third or more of state revenues lxvi Russia learned starting in late 2008 that its economy was therefore at risk of significant volatility in case of a downturn in global energy prices and diversifying the economy away from extractive industries is a stated goal of the Russian government However for the foreseeable future the core of Russia’s economy will remain oil and gas lxvii 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This in turn means that Russia’s economy is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts that affect the current or future operations of the petroleum sector Many areas that are currently the focus of exploration and production activity will be more difficult to exploit Pipeline and rail transportation systems that cross major rivers and permafrost will be subjected to unprecedented stresses and strains many of which were not anticipated when initial design parameters were established Critical new upstream development areas such as the Yamal Peninsula will be more complicated to reach by land and harder to develop in the face of thawing permafrost and shorter winter seasons The Russian petroleum industry has traditionally centered in West Siberia and the Volga region with transportation links extending to European portions of Russia and then to western and central European markets The Russian gas industry has centered on three super-giant fields in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region—the Urengoy Yamburg and Medvezh’ye fields At present in addition to thousands of producing oil and gas wells Russia has roughly 50 000 kilometers of oil pipelines and roughly 150 000 kilometers of gas pipelines most of which were constructed in the 1980s under Soviet rule There are also scores of processing plants and refineries distributed across Russia’s massive territory lxviii See Figure 5 for a map of existing and planned pipelines and gas production regions The core climate-related vulnerability facing oil and gas pipeline systems is that these systems were designed and built with the presumption of a stable climate The thousands of river crossings did not provide margins of error to accommodate the increased water flow that will result from climate change by 2030 They were not constructed using horizontal directional drilling techniques that allow deeper and more secure passage under riverbeds Underwater river crossings in several key producing and transit regions are thought to be particularly at risk—the upper and lower Volga and its tributaries in the regions of Nizhegorodskaya Orenburg Perm Samara Saratov Ulyanovsk Bashkortostan Tatarstan Tyumen Novosibirsk and Sakhalin among others lxix In addition to climate-related risks for river crossings oil and gas pipelines and other facilities are at risk in permafrost regions In these areas pipelines and other structures are typically constructed above ground to allow thermal insulation to avoid thawing the soil In the period to 2030 however these regions will experience deeper seasonal thawing resulting in structural subsidence and weakened integrity of pipelines and other petroleum-industry installations The permafrost zones are also exceptionally important for the future development of oil and especially gas production Russian gas production has been the basis of not only Russian export earnings but also Russia’s controversial growing politico-economic power vis-à-vis central and western European neighbors as was demonstrated again in early 2009 during the RussianUkrainian gas crisis Maintaining Russian gas exports is therefore a matter of highest national priority There has been a dramatic decline of production at the Urengoy Yamburg and Medvezh’ye fields that have been the core of Russian gas production since the end of the Soviet period lxx New production is crucial for Gazprom to realize its production targets and satisfy both domestic requirements and export consumers in coming years lxxi 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views FRONT PAGE OF FOLDOUT 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views BACK PAGE OF FOLDOUT 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Three of the key areas that the Russians expect to produce new gas will keenly feel the effects of a changing climate by 2030 First the Yamal peninsula is an Arctic region that is a vast wealth of untapped gas prospects According to some Gazprom projections it could account for as much as 200 billion cubic meters bcm of gas production per year by 2020 and 360 bcm per year by 2030 lxxii However developing Yamal will be significantly complicated by a changing climate Supplies that will need to be brought in by land will require the construction of new roads and rail links which will be tricky with the growth of thermokarst Previous techniques like the use of seasonal ice roads will be more problematic due to the shorter cold season New above-ground pipelines and other elevated installations will have to be constructed using deeper foundations to avoid structural damage from subsidence A second key area for new Russian gas production is the Barents Sea Here one massive new field called Shtokman is to be developed some 550 kilometers north of the Kola Peninsula with a projected annual production of around 90 bcm of gas lxxiii This hugely challenging technical undertaking which will require the construction of ice-capable production platforms in more than 300 meters of water is especially difficult because it is so far offshore that it is beyond the range of helicopters yet it is vulnerable to seasonal pack ice and vicious storms In the face of a rapidly changing Arctic climate vessels traveling to Shtokman will have to navigate increasingly severe waters and endure bitter winter storms A third key projected area for the Russian gas industry is Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East Here too climate change in the period to 2030 will pose increasing complications—melting permafrost swollen rivers more frequent and severe storms and more prevalent incidence of traditionally atypical forms of disease As mentioned above the Russian gas industry has traditionally been oriented toward customers within Russia and in neighboring European countries However in the past decade Gazprom and the Russian government have identified the goal of moving to the East and developing gas resources that can feed to the Pacific Rim The official Eastern Gas Program released in August 2007 projects total extraction of 100 bcm year by 2030 lxxiv New fields are being developed in the Sea of Okhotsk near Sakhalin Island Other prospects are being pursued as far west as the area to the north of Lake Baikal e g the Kovykta field and in the Sakha Republic Yakutia All of these projects will require major new construction with countless major and minor river crossings and a significant number of permafrost operations This development will therefore be vulnerable to the same kinds of challenges from climate impacts as have been discussed above Food Production and Drinking Water Supply Russia will experience a mix of positive and negative impacts on food and water supply in the period to 2030 The net impacts in these important areas will depend heavily on the extent to which adaptation measures can be implemented in an affordable and timely manner but doing so will be difficult Experts project that Russia will experience an increase in total water supply in the period to 2030 According to Roshydromet in the aggregate Russia will experience an 8-10 percent increase in water volume by 2015⎯the equivalent of a 12-14 percent increase per capita⎯with these trends expected to continue in the years that follow 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views That said different regions will experience significantly different changes in their respective water supply The northern and northwestern portions of European Russia as well as the central Volga many of the non-Chernozem lands the Urals and the Russian Far East will experience increasing water availability In the dams along the VolgaKamsk Cascade water flows are projected to increase by 10-20 percent by 2015 as mentioned above In the Northwest federal district dams will see a 5-10 percent increase over the same period And some of the key Siberian rivers systems⎯the AngarskYenisey the Vilyu the Kolyma and the Zeya⎯will experience flow increases by up to 15 percent lxxv On the other hand many other parts of Russia will experience worsening water shortages including densely populated industrial regions that are projected to experience increases in water demand of 5-25 percent lxxvi In the Chernozem lands these water-poor areas will include the Belgorod Voronezh Kursk Lipetsk Orel and Tambov regions In the south Kalmykia Krasnodar Stavropol and Rostov regions will face increasingly challenging water situations with reductions in water supply on the order of 5-15 percent lxxvii In southwestern Siberia the list will include Altay Kemerovo Novosibirsk Omsk and Tomsk Across a key southern belt a whole host of Russian regions will face mounting and serious water problems Included in this list will be both certain key agricultural lands more on food supply below and also a number of key industrial regions Even the capital and the Moscow Oblast’ will face “particularly acute” water supply problems lxxviii Regarding food supply the longstanding popular presumption in Russia has been that a warmer global climate would translate into a significantly more hospitable Russian environment for agricultural production Indeed there are several respects in which climate change by 2030 will reduce longstanding challenges for Russian agriculture First and foremost growing seasons have already become longer and are predicted to become longer still lxxix Accompanying this change will be a reduction in the frequency of winter temperatures that are sufficiently bitter to damage winter plantings More sensitive varieties of winter plantings will be possible in much of Russia by 2030 and it will be possible to plant existing varieties farther north than would have been the case in the past lxxx For example it will be possible to plant longer-ripening grains and late-ripening sugar beets as far north as Moscow lxxxi Interestingly the longer growing seasons will not be accompanied by an increased frost-free period except in the Northwestern Central and Volga federal districts lxxxii Based on temperature ranges expected by 2030 it will also be possible to introduce entirely new crops that are not widely grown in Russia today For example the projected temperature of the north Caucasus and the lower Volga will be well suited to intensive agriculture for crops that are typically found in Central Asia and the south Caucasus at present⎯crops such as cotton grapes tea citrus and other fruits and vegetables lxxxiii A key question however is whether the longer growing seasons and the warmer Russian agricultural lands will result in increased yields In fact this does not appear to be assured—at least not based on the crops that are currently raised Many of the current “bread basket” areas of Russia⎯including the Black Earth or Chernozem lands the 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lower Volga region and the southern part of Siberia⎯will experience reductions in grain yields resulting from reduced precipitation⎯reductions in yields of more than 22 percent by 2020 Warmer average temperatures will produce better grain yields in some parts of the country that have not traditionally served as the heartland for grain production Regions such as the Northwest and Central federal districts and the Volga-Vyatsk region are expected to see a 10-15 percent increment in grain yields Nationwide according to Roshydromet grain yields could shrink by more than 11 percent by 2020 lxxxiv Plant diseases and pests will become a more serious challenge in many parts of Russia In the southern part of European Russia and in western Siberia locusts are expected to be increasingly common Already they are found more frequently than was the case two or three decades ago and they are expected to be even more prevalent in the future in the Stavropol Kalmykia Volgograd Astrakhan Saratov and Rostov regions and in some parts of southern Siberia lxxxv In northwestern Russia farmers are experiencing an infestation of Colorado potato beetles which are now found in Karelia In coming years as mild winters become increasingly common they are expected to spread into southern parts of the Arkhangelsk region and the Komi Republic lxxxvi A third question that arises about future agriculture is whether human management and distribution systems and rural society itself will be able to adapt in a timely manner to manage new crops new supply chains and requirements Indeed rural Russia has typically been resistant to change In addition supply distribution and management issues have historically posed great hurdles for Russian agriculture A key question will be whether a true national market for food and agricultural products develops or whether Russian regions persist in semi-national semi-intra-region forms of agricultural trade lxxxvii Additional challenges for agriculture by 2030 will come from the increased frequency of severe weather events Periods of drought in key agricultural regions are expected to be 50-100 percent more frequent by 2015 with the trend line continuing thereafter lxxxviii By 2030 Russia will start to feel the impacts of climate change in relation to both water and food supply To maintain stable food supply significant changes will be required in terms of varieties that are planted the lands that are used for agriculture and the extent and intensity of pesticide and irrigation use All of these solutions are theoretically possible but none will come easily or inexpensively All will test the ability of Russian authorities and Russian agriculture to adapt quickly as climate change impacts are felt Transportation Systems Transportation systems are another aspect of Russia’s socioeconomic life that will experience major impacts from climate change by 2030 For the most part these impacts will entail the need for significant adaptations which will imply significant capital requirements This will be true for Russia’s extensive rail networks as well as its more limited road networks However in relation to river transportation and especially Far North maritime transport a changing climate will open new and likely beneficial possibilities Russia’s railways are the backbone of its goods and passenger transportation system with over 87 000 kilometers of railroads stretching across most of the country lxxxix The 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views system is a state-owned monopoly that moves 1 3 billion passengers and 1 3 billion tons of freight annually which represents 83 percent of all freight in Russia not counting petroleum pipeline operations xc The rail system is most highly developed in the European part of Russia and along the southern reaches of Siberia Nonetheless a significant portion of the rail system⎯such as the Baikal-Amur Mainline BAM ⎯cross permafrost zones so they will be subject to the same risks of subsidence and structural weakening from permafrost melt as well as increased vulnerability at river crossings from increased Siberian river flows as discussed above Russia’s road transport systems are much less significant for cross-country transportation but they too will be affected by climate change Some of the impacts may be positive in that reduced winter snowpack in European Russia where the road system is much more developed and much more used than in the Arctic or the Far East may reduce road hazards and wear and tear on existing roads Other impacts will be negative however The increase in weather variability with elevated risks of severe storms and downpours may lead to elevated dangers for road transportation and risks of mudslides and erosion in mountainous areas and near rivers and floodplains In the Far North and Far East where wintertime ice roads have been a means of wintertime survival shorter cold seasons will result in significantly reduced road transport capacity xci River transport which is another key element of Russia’s total transportation system will experience both new problems and benefits from climate change to 2030 varying by region In areas such as the Don River Basin in Russia’s southwest where there will be a reduction in total water flow river navigation may encounter serious challenges Extensive and expensive dredging may be required to allow continued barge and river freighter traffic In other areas where river flows will significantly increase such as along the major Siberian river systems and in the northwest of the country river transport may be enhanced and facilitated The exception to this rule may occur in areas where the earlier arrival of spring weather and the more pronounced melt-off of winter snow and ice lead to river ice jams and flooding xcii Another potentially significant transportation impact from climate change is the increased possibility of sea passage through Arctic waters The so-called Northern Sea Route NSR that runs from near the island of Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait offers the prospect of up to a 40 percent savings in sea distance for journeys between northern Europe and Pacific Rim ports in either North America or northeastern Asia xciii By 2020 the navigation season along the NSR will increase from around 36 days at present to around 40 days per summer xciv Furthermore the reduction in the extent of Arctic ice will allow vessels to travel in deeper waters farther from shore Nonetheless Arctic Sea shipping will not be without its share of challenges Icebergs will continue to pose hazards to navigation and bitter storms may produce significant wave action Human Health Climate change may present Russia with a host of new and unwelcome challenges by 2030—both in the form of dangers related directly to climate and in the form of pestborne disease 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In the case of direct effects the combination of more frequent droughts and heat waves has had an impact on vulnerable populations in Russia already xcv By 2030 as extreme weather events become more prevalent this kind of increased risk to human health will rise further particularly affecting the aged and infirm especially for those unable to afford residential air conditioning Historically Russia’s bitter winters served as a check on the populations of many disease-carrying pests Rodent populations mosquitoes and ticks were limited by the rigor of the seasons In recent years however these historical factors have receded For example according to one report Russia’s current rodent population is ten times higher than historical norms Worse yet one-third of the rodent population is estimated to carry one of the viruses that cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome or HFRS which is a deadly illness if not caught early in its course xcvi Incidences of HFRS spike after each occurrence of an unusually mild Russian winter As in other northern countries mosquitoes have always been a summertime challenge in Russia Due to the poor quality of the housing stock mosquitoes were often an unexpected wintertime challenge too they would live through the winter in standing water in Russian basements as many Western students and diplomats experienced But by 2030 they are expected to pose an increasing public health threat As may as 250 000 Russians suffer from latent local forms of malaria West Nile and Denge Fever are reported to be spreading across the country as well xcvii Ticks are another disease vector that will grow worse by 2030 Tick encephalitis Lyme disease and tick rickettsiosis Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever are three of the diseases that are spreading increasingly aggressively across Russia Intestinal diseases are also a risk for Russia in the period to 2030 This risk will be especially significant in southern European Russia and the northern Caucasus region where fresh water supply and water quality are expected to deteriorate as a result of climate change xcviii However even in distant Yakutia in 2002 early spring flooding which will also be increasingly common in Siberia by 2030 triggered a massive outbreak of enteric fever xcix Coping Capabilities in Facing Natural Disasters Russia is better equipped than many other countries to respond to disasters resulting from climate change certainly much better equipped than most of its regional neighbors The central entity involved in governmental response to natural and manmade disasters is the Russian Federation Ministry of Civil Defense Emergency Situations and Disaster Response known in Russia by the shorthand “Ministry of Emergency Situations ” and often referred to in the West as “Emercom” This organization brings together many of the functions that fall under the US Department of Homeland Security including the Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA and the Coast Guard as well as local fire departments all across the country c It is a proud well-recognized organization that has earned public respect for its involvement in responding to a number of tragic occurrences in recent years 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Of particular significance for response to climate change impacts will be the Ministry’s units with responsibility for forest fire prevention and response maritime emergencies flood protection and response and search and rescue The Ministry is Moscow-based but has regional centers across Russia including several in southern Siberia that could be especially important in ensuring timely response to climate change-related disasters Another important component of Russia’s coping capacity comes from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet or Hydromet Hydromet is the rough equivalent of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA and is active in monitoring assessment analysis and prediction of weather and climate Hydromet operates the Russian weather service including over 1 600 meteorological stations across Russia ci as well as serving as the leading scientific organization and the lead Russian representative for international negotiations and scientific undertakings related to climate change Its research institutes work in close collaboration with institutes under the Russian Academy of Sciences as well as leading Russian participation in the IPCC and other scientific assessment and forecasting activities Despite the considerable capabilities of both of these governmental organizations to analyze and respond to natural disasters Russia will face a number of challenges in this context Effective adaptation to climate change will require the application of huge resources and more difficult careful policy reforms For example policymakers will have to decide what to do with the residents of Russia’s outsized northern urban centers These Arctic cities are a monument to the sensibilities of Soviet planners—and an economic disaster cii Thawing permafrost will pose more problems for these cities and many of these cities sit on or near the banks of the Siberian rivers that will experience significant increases in flows and increased risks of flooding Yet mass relocation would be both costly and politically challenging Other Urban Infrastructure In the period to 2030 climate change could have a variety of impacts on urban infrastructure in Russia Some of these impacts have already been discussed above such as the potential for a reduction in heating requirements and heating loads that could accompany an increase in wintertime temperatures Another broad category of impact—but a negative one—is projected sea-level rise This impact has the potential to bring significant challenges to a host of Russian cities and port complexes Particularly vulnerable is Russia’s second city St Petersburg which is already regularly at risk of flooding when strong winds blow to the east from the Gulf of Finland This vulnerability will only rise as sea level rises and storm surges grow more intense ciii The risks of catastrophic flooding in St Petersburg before 2030 and of consequent damage to both the economy and to unique historical buildings is great St Petersburg is not the only city at risk The level of the Black Sea has been rising since the 1920s and the rate of rise has increased significantly since the 1980s currently about 2 centimeters per year civ This will affect Russia’s main warm water port complex at Novorossiysk where dry cargoes crude oil and refined petroleum products are all exported It will also affect Russia’s main Black Sea military base which is at Sevastopol in neighboring Ukraine Outside the Black Sea area Russia’s vital 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views deepwater Atlantic basin port at Murmansk which comprises both military and civilian capacity will also be at risk to rising sea levels as will the Pacific Rim ports including Vladivostok and others As a general matter Russia’s population is projected to experience significant risks in the period to 2030 and beyond from extreme weather events—floods torrential rains severe winds tornados hurricanes and the like Officially designated dangerous hydrometeorological events across all of Russia have been growing markedly more common for the past decade-plus cv This trend is expected to continue to 2030 and afterward Russia’s major urban centers may experience periods of drought combined with heat waves In such circumstances the risks of heat-related or disease-related illness could rise significantly International Issues The international treatment of the Arctic over the next 20 or so years and questions of immigration related to climate change will affect Russia Greenhouse warming may bring greater changes in the Arctic than anywhere else on the planet As has been discussed above pronounced warming is already eroding the polar ice cap and the thermal qualities of open water are contributing in turn to further warming and further melt-off This all translates into the Arctic being a much less imposing and more hospitable place than it has been in the past Summers will bring increasingly extensive open seas that will facilitate speedy sea transportation of goods between northern Europe and the Pacific coasts of North America and northeastern Asia cvi See transportation discussion above New ports are being built along the Russian Arctic coast In addition the warmer Arctic is engendering increased interest on the part of all of the littoral states in off-shore development In 2007 the Russian polar scientist and politician Artur Chilingarov led an undersea expedition intended to bolster Russian claims that the Arctic is predominantly within the exclusive economic zone of Russia One of Chilingarov’s key arguments is that the undersea Lomonosov Ridge extends from Russian territory and therefore validates Russia’s claim to half of Arctic Ocean Complicating matters further there is no clear agreement as to the legal regime that should govern competing claims in the Arctic cvii Chilingarov’s expedition culminated with the depositing of a Russian flag on the sea bottom some 2 5 miles below the surface “The Arctic has special geopolitical importance for Russia ” Chilingarov later said cviii Given that Russia is not alone in its strong economic and security interests in the Arctic climate changes that affect the Arctic could prompt the development of new military bases and activity In late January 2009 military and political leaders from NATO met in Reykjavik Iceland to discuss how to manage the opportunities and challenges posed by a warming Arctic The Secretary-General of NATO Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told the assembled audience “Climate change is not a fanciful idea It is already a reality a reality that brings with it certain new challenges including for NATO Several Arctic rim countries are strengthening their capabilities and military activity in the High North region has been steadily increasing ”cix It is thus possible to imagine a significant 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views increase in military presence in the Arctic beyond what has been the case since the end of the Cold War Another international issue facing Russia is climate-related migration Already today Russia is the world’s second biggest destination for migration after the United States attracting an estimated seven million migrants in 2008 of whom only about four million were legal cx At present most migrants present in Russia are from the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus and they seek economic opportunity to help support families in their countries of origin Many migrants are involved in construction other manual labor and trading especially in foodstuffs In the Russian Far East and Primorskiy Kray there are also a significant number of temporary workers from northeastern China In short today’s migration to Russia seems to be significantly motivated by the “pull” phenomenon of economic opportunity By 2030 migration may become more of a “push” phenomenon Water availability is projected to become an increasingly serious challenge in Central Asia Mongolia and northeastern China and simultaneously droughts are projected to become more frequent Glacial-fed rivers are at risk of becoming more and more depleted by 2030 cxi The ability of the Central Asian states to adapt to a changing climate may well be more limited than is the case with Russia In turn migration may become a source of instability within Russia especially in difficult economic times Already today nationalist and reactionary political and social groupings are committing increasing numbers of hate crimes in Russian cities and towns A Moscow-based nongovernmental organization that monitors hate crimes recorded over 500 attacks against foreigners in 2008 a one-third increase over 2007 cxii Adaptive Capacity The impacts of climate change will be felt differentially depending upon how well a society can cope with or adapt to climate change that is its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCC as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences ”cxiii Although the specific determinants or “drivers” of adaptive capacity are a matter of debate among researchers there is good agreement that economic human and environmental resources are essential elements Some components of this adaptive capacity are near term such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by e g flooding or droughts Other components include a high enough level of education so that people can change livelihoods sufficient unmanaged land that can be brought into food production and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change For instance Yohe and Tolcxiv identified eight qualitative “determinants of adaptive capacity ” many of which are societal in character although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing 1 The range of available technological options for adaptation 2 The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3 The structure of critical institutions the derivative allocation of decision-making authority and the decision criteria that would be employed 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 4 The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5 The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6 The system’s access to risk-spreading processes 7 The ability of decision-makers to manage information the processes by which these decision-makers determine which information is credible and the credibility of the decision-makers themselves 8 The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations Russian Adaptive Capacity in a Global Context Researchers have only recently taken on the challenge of assessing adaptive capacity in a comparative quantitative framework A comprehensive global comparative studycxv of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM—see box below Adaptive capacity as assessed in this study consists of seven variables in three sectors chosen to represent societal characteristics important to a country’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change Human and Civic Resources • Dependency ratio proxy for social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting basic needs • Literacy proxy for human capital generally especially the ability to adapt by changing employment Economic Capacity • GDP market per capita proxy for economic well-being in general especially access to markets technology and other resources useful for adaptation • Income equity proxy for the potential of all people in a country or state to participate in the economic benefits available Environmental Capacity • Percent of land that is unmanaged proxy for potential for economic use or increased crop productivity and for ecosystem health e g ability of plants and animals to migrate under climate change • Sulfur dioxide per unit land area proxy for air quality and through sulfur deposition other stresses on ecosystems • Population density proxy for population pressures on ecosystems e g adequate food production for a given population Adaptive capacity for a sample of 10 countries from the 160-country study is shown in Figure 6 base year of 2005 There is a wide range of adaptive capacity represented by these countries Russia ranks high both in the sample and overall • Russia ranks 32nd and Libya 34th in the highest quartile 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Indonesia ranks 45th Belize 48th Mexico 59th and China 75th in the second quartile • The Philippines ranks 91st and India 119th in the third quartile • Morocco ranks 136th and Haiti 156th in the lowest quartile Any country-level analysis must take into account the comparative ranking of the country Methodological Description of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The vulnerability index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be negatively affected by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is composed of one to three proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birth rate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk due to sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is composed of the geometric means of participating values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of the adaptive capacity and sensitivity 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Ranking of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India Morocco Haiti 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 6 Sample of 10 countries’ rankings of adaptive capacity 2005 Figure 7 shows the contribution of each variable to the overall ranking slight differences occurring because of the methodology see box In current adaptive capacity Russia ranks first among the 10 countries shown in Figure 6 Russia's comparatively high literacy levels indicating higher human capital low greenhouse gas emissions and low population density indicating a less of a burden on the environment more than compensate for low GDP per capita This corresponds roughly with the pattern that one Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya GDP per capita equity index Indonesia Belize dependency ratio literacy levels non-managed land % emssions total land Mexico China Philippines India population density Morocco Haiti 0 200 400 600 Figure 7 Variables’ contributions to adaptive capacity rankings 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views would expect for Russia Russia has some significant areas of vulnerability but it also stands to see some beneficial impacts from climate change It has a well-educated populace an economy that has some diversification but not a great deal and a socioeconomic picture in which there is a small middle class a small cluster of people with great wealth and many who have only limited means Figure 8 shows projected adaptive capacity growth over time for the 10-country sample Projections are made for two scenarios rates of growth are based on the IPCC’s A1 scenario in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios cxvi VRIM simulates two different hypothetical development tracks out to the year 2065 well beyond the timescale of the present study with intermediate results at 15-year time steps These alternative development tracks are not intended to be predictive they are scenarios Both scenarios feature moderate population growth and a tendency toward convergence in affluence with market-based solutions rapid technological progress and improving human welfare The scenarios used in this study differ in the rate of economic growth one modeling high-and-fast economic growth the other delayed growth Over time a low-growth scenario widens the gap among the 10 countries—and the highgrowth scenario widens the gap even more Figure 8 In both scenarios China's high economic growth indicated by GDP per capita favorable dependency ratio and literacy rate allow that country to overtake Russia by 2050 In both scenarios the strengths and weaknesses of current Russian adaptive capacity persist with slow economic growth being a notable weakness Looking forward Russia’s ability to cope with climate change impacts to 2030 and beyond will obviously depend on both the nature and extent of the impacts and the extent to which Russia’s adaptive capacities develop over time This in turn depends on the nature and extent of Russia’s socioeconomic and sociopolitical development over the coming years In the delayed-growth scenario Russia’s position is much less influenced by wealth accumulation adaptive capacity and much more heavily influenced by water availability the production of cereal grains and the use of fertilizer included in impacts sensitivity rather than in adaptive capacity In this scenario Russia’s adaptive capacity still improves over time but its progress like that of other countries is much more modest than in the high-growth scenario The high-growth scenario could in the case of Russia be consistent with robust earlyperiod revenues from hydrocarbons and other commodity production leading to significant wealth accumulation in the country and over time greater economic diversification of the sort that has been advocated in the last year by President Dmitriy Medvedev The elements and implications of this high-growth scenario are outwardly consistent with the track that Russia appeared to be on until the collapse of energy prices in the past six months In this scenario Russia’s adaptive capacity grows significantly over time with Russia ending the period second only to China 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity in the Delayed Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines 40 India Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Adaptive Capacity in the High Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Figure 8 Projections of adaptive capacity for 10 countries 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In the real world a variety of factors will play into the overall calculus of Russia’s adaptive capacity Evolving socioeconomic conditions will be one key factor To highlight this fact one can compare the adaptation of the Russian oil industry to the adaption of its gas industry in the period since the breakup of the USSR In the late 1990s and the first years of the current decade the Russian oil industry experienced rapid innovation that reflected new ownership forms new managerial techniques and the introduction of international technology Production skyrocketed especially after the 1998 financial crash while environmental impacts for the oil industry as a whole spills emissions and accidents dropped By comparison the relatively traditionalist Russian gas industry where there was substantially less commercial managerial and technological change evolved less dramatically In the area of Russian agriculture socioeconomic forms and institutions most likely will be significant in determining the efficacy of the sector’s adaptation to climate change cxvii One particular shortcoming will be the relative weakness of agricultural education and training akin to the extension service programs operated by the US Department of Agriculture Russia’s rural population is generally the country’s most conservative social grouping adapting to changing climatic conditions will require innovation that has historically been alien to much of rural Russian society Strengths Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments Even comparative measures of adaptive capacity only allow analysts to ask better focused questions about area or local conditions that contribute to or reduce resilience It is likely for instance that for particular places in Russia important variables or domains are not included For agricultural regions this might include the extent of irrigation for urban areas better measures of education could be important The measure of unmanaged land does not account for the potential usefulness of that land However comparative measures such as these can be an important first step toward determining where to direct resources—for further analysis or additional factors 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Conclusions High Risk Impacts Energy Russia’s current and foreseeable future economic health depends extremely heavily on Russia’s ability to produce and export oil and natural gas The oil and gas infrastructure that exists today was not designed with an eye to vulnerability stemming from a changing climate—such as structural subsidence pipeline crossings at surging rivers and sea-level rise Therefore current production will be increasingly at risk in the coming years Moreover as production from traditional Russian gas supply provinces declines Russia must develop replacement sources The Yamal Peninsula and Barents Sea including the Shtokman field are absolute priorities and the Russian Far East is a secondary priority The impacts of a changing climate may delay significantly or significantly raise the cost of efforts to bring these new production areas on-line which could affect Russia’s fiscal position and balance of payments Agriculture By 2030 Russia will begin to experience significant changes in agriculture The critical question will be whether the positive impacts – longer growing season new land that can be put under the plow and the possibility of introducing new varieties and new crops—will outweigh the significant negative impacts In this latter regard the reduction in precipitation in parts of Russia’s traditional agricultural belts and the projected reduction in yields for traditional grain crops are significant considerations Also significant is the projected increasing reliance on irrigation and chemical additives to deter pests and enrich soils Rural Russia historically has been a very traditionalist part of the country and to date Russia has not developed widespread systems to educate farmers particularly to help them anticipate and adapt to changes in their growing conditions stemming from climate change There are risks that rural Russia simply will not adapt itself in a timely manner to the agricultural realities of a changing climate Russia’s food supply could be under stress Migration Many of Russia’s southern neighbors face a drier hotter future in which economic prospects may become increasingly dire If these neighbors are unable to adapt themselves in a timely manner and provide for their populations Russia may experience significant new migration pressures which could plausibly be associated with greater instability and ethnic strife in affected Russian cities and towns Accentuated Socio-Economic and Socio-Political Stresses Russia is a massive country with a pronounced continental climate thus extreme weather is not entirely unfamiliar Nor is hardship unfamiliar to the people of Russia Nonetheless the significant increase in dangerous weather events over the last two decades and the prospect of a continuing trend in this regard make clear that extreme weather may be the sword of Damocles hanging over Russia’s future Heat waves wind storms droughts and severe flooding may result in considerable damage to infrastructure impacts on livelihoods and even significant loss of life These threats in turn may place even greater socio-economic and socio-political stress on parts of the country where the relationship between the government and governed is already tense Areas such as the North Caucasus have already seen political tensions and instability that are unrelated to climate change By 2030 however climate change could significantly exacerbate such areas of stress 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models This is an excerpt from IPCC 2007 Chapter 11 Regional models see IPCC 2007 for references 4 11 4 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate Regional mean temperature and precipitation in the MMD models show biases when compared with observed climate Table 2 The multi-model mean shows a cold and wet bias in all regions and in most seasons and the bias of the annual average temperature ranges from –2 5°C over the Tibetan Plateau TIB to –1 4°C over South Asia SAS For most regions there is a 6°C to 7°C range in the biases from individual models with a reduced bias range in Southeast Asia SEA of 3 6°C The median bias in precipitation is small less than 10 percent in Southeast Asia South Asia and Central Asia CAS larger in northern Asia and East Asia NAS and EAS around 23 percent and very large in the Tibetan Plateau 110 percent Annual biases in individual models are in the range of –50 to 60 percent across all regions except the Tibetan Plateau where some models simulate annual precipitation 2 5 times that observed and even larger seasonal biases occur in winter and spring These global models clearly have significant problems over Tibet due to the difficulty in simulating the effects of the dramatic topographic relief as well as the distorted albedo feedbacks due to extensive snow cover However with only limited observations available predominantly in valleys large errors in temperature and significant underestimates of precipitation are likely South Asia Over South Asia the summer is dominated by the southwest monsoon which spans the four months from June to September and dominates the seasonal cycles of the climatic parameters While most models simulate the general migration of seasonal tropical rain the observed maximum rainfall during the monsoon season along the west coast of India the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining northeast India is poorly simulated by many models Lal and Harasawa 2001 Rupa Kumar and Ashrit 2001 Rupa Kumar et al 2002 2003 This is likely linked to the coarse resolution of the models as the heavy rainfall over these regions is generally associated with the steep orography However the simulated annual cycles in South Asian mean precipitation and surface air temperature are reasonably close to the observed The MMD models capture the general regional features of the monsoon such as the low rainfall amounts coupled with high variability over northwest India However there has not yet been sufficient analysis of whether finer details of regional significance are simulated more adequately in the MMD models Recent work indicates that time-slice experiments using an AGCM with prescribed SSTs as opposed to a fully coupled system are not able to accurately capture the South Asian monsoon response Douville 2005 Thus neglecting the short-term SST feedback and variability seems to have a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming complicating the regional downscaling problem However May 2004a notes that the high-resolution about 1 5 degrees European Centre-Hamburg ECHAM4 GCM simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall intensity as 4 Some references in this section have been changed to be internally consistent with this document and other references have been removed to avoid confusion 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views well as frequency of wet days in good agreement with the observations Global Precipitation Climatology Project Huffman et al 2001 Three-member ensembles of baseline simulations 1961–1990 from an RCM PRECIS at 50-kilometer resolution have confirmed that significant improvements in the representation of regional processes over South Asia can be achieved Rupa Kumar et al 2006 For example the steep gradients in monsoon precipitation with a maximum along the western coast of India are well represented in PRECIS East Asia Simulated temperatures in most MMD models are too low in all seasons over East Asia the mean cold bias is largest in winter and smallest in summer Zhou and Yu 2006 show that over China the models perform reasonably in simulating the dominant variations of the mean temperature over China but not the spatial distributions The annual precipitation over East Asia exceeds the observed estimates in almost all models and the rain band in the mid-latitudes is shifted northward in seasons other than summer This bias in the placement of the rains in central China also occurred in earlier models e g Zhou and Li 2002 Gao et al 2004 In winter the area-mean precipitation is overestimated by more than 50 percent on average due to strengthening of the rain band associated with extratropical systems over South China The bias and inter-model differences in precipitation are smallest in summer but the northward shift of this rain band results in large discrepancies in summer rainfall distribution over Korea Japan and adjacent seas Kusunoki et al 2006 find that the simulation of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu rains in the East Asian monsoon is improved substantially with increasing horizontal resolution Confirming the importance of resolution RCMs simulate more realistic climatic characteristics over East Asia than AOGCMs whether driven by re-analyses or by AOGCMs e g Ding et al 2003 Oh et al 2004 Fu et al 2005 Zhang et al 2005a Ding et al 2006 Sasaki et al 2006b Several studies reproduce the fine-scale climatology of small areas using a multiply nested RCM Im et al 2006 and a very-high resolution 5 kilometers RCM Yasunaga et al 2006 Gao et al 2006b report that simulated East Asia large-scale precipitation patterns are significantly affected by resolution particularly during the mid- to late-monsoon months when smaller-scale convective processes dominate Southeast Asia The broad-scale spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in DJF and JJA averaged across the MMD models compares well with observations Rajendran et al 2004 examine the simulation of current climate in the MRI coupled model Large-scale features were well simulated but errors in the timing of peak rainfall over Indochina were considered a major shortcoming Collier et al 2004 assess the performance of the CCSM3 model in simulating tropical precipitation forced by observed SST Simulation was good over the Maritime continent compared to the simulation for other tropical regions B Wang et al 2004 assess the ability of 11 AGCMs in the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulation forced with observed SST variations They found that the models’ ability to simulate observed interannual rainfall variations was poorest in the Southeast Asian portion of the domain Since current AOGCMs continue to have some 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views significant shortcomings in representing ENSO variability the difficulty of projecting changes in ENSO-related rainfall in this region is compounded Rainfall simulation across the region at finer scales has been examined in some studies The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO stretchedgrid Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM at 80-kilometer resolution shows reasonable precipitation simulation in JJA although Indochina tended to be drier than in the observations McGregor and Nguyen 2003 Aldrian et al 2004a conducted a number of simulations with the Max-Planck Institute MPI regional model for an Indonesian domain forced by reanalyses and by the ECHAM4 GCM The model was able to represent the spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall It was found that a resolution of at least 50 kilometers was required to simulate rainfall seasonality correctly over Sulawesi The formulation of a coupled regional model improves regional rainfall simulation over the oceans Aldrian et al 2004b Arakawa and Kitoh 2005 demonstrate an accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over Indonesia with an AGCM of 20-kilometer horizontal resolution Central Asia and Tibet Due to the complex topography and the associated mesoscale weather systems of the high-altitude and arid areas GCMs typically perform poorly over the region Importantly the GCMs and to a lesser extent RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over arid and semi-arid areas in the north e g Small et al 1999 Gao et al 2001 Elguindi and Giorgi 2006 Over Tibet the few available RCM simulations generally exhibit improved performance in the simulation of present-day climate compared to GCMs e g Gao et al 2003a b Zhang et al 2005b For example the GCM simulation of Gao et al 2003a overestimated the precipitation over the north-western Tibetan Plateau by a factor of five to six while in an RCM nested in this model the overestimate was less than a factor of two 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Table 2 Biases in present-day 1980-1999 surface air temperature and precipitation in the MMD simulations The simulated temperatures are compared with the HadCRUT2v Jones et al 2001 data set and precipitation with the CMAP update of Xie and Arkin 1997 data set Temperature biases are in °C and precipitation biases in per cent Shown are the minimum median 50% and maximum biases among the models as well as the first 25% and third 75% quartile values Colors indicate regions seasons for which at least 75% of the models have the same sign of bias with orange indicating positive and light violet negative temperature biases and light blue positive and light brown negative precipitation biases 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Russia and Russia’s Adaptive Capacity In order to increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of Russia’s projected climate changes and their impacts and the country’s adaptive capacity the following gaps would need to be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes One gap of particular interest is the lack of medium-term 20-30 years projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas Research agendas in these areas can be found in for instance the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program http www climatescience gov and the National Academy of Sciences e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 11175#toc Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected • In social science research scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors in vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity—much less their interactions and evolution Again research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decision-making abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important factors are unaccounted for in research scientists know what some of them are but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain Modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal and the only factor modeled was deforestation This assumption of course made the models inadequate for their purposes In another example ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests e g the pine bark beetle • Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about motivation intent and behavior is a serious lack Overall research about climate change impacts on Russia has been undertaken piecemeal discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications separately considered from physical effects This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energy-economic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views i The Library of Congress Country Studies http lcweb2 loc gov frd cs accessed February 5 2009 CIA World Factbook https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook accessed February 5 2009 “Russia Climate ” http www russiansabroad com russian_history_96 html accessed February 5 2009 ii J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 12511256 iii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 iv J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 v R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig “Dynamics of Recent Climate Change in the Arctic ” Science 297 2002 1497–1502 vi R S Bradley H F Diaz J K Eischeid P D Jones P M Kelly and C M Goodess “Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century ” Science 237 1987 171–175 vii IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 The AR4 Synthesis Report eds Rajendra K Pachauri and Andy Reisinger Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis eds Susan Solomon Dahe Qin Martin Manning Melinda Marquis Kristen Averyt Melinda M B Tignor Henry LeRoy Miller Jr Zhenlin Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Mitigation of Climate Change eds Bert Metz Ogunlade Davidson Peter Bosch Rutu Dave Leo Meyer Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 viii Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 ix WWF World Wildlife Fund “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic and Paths to Solving the Problem ” Russia Moscow 2008 x Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xi WWF World Wildlife Fund “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic and Paths to Solving the Problem ” Russia Moscow 2008 xii WWF World Wildlife Fund “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic and Paths to Solving the Problem ” Russia Moscow 2008 xiii R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig “Dynamics of Recent Climate Change in the Artic ” Science 297 2002 1497–1502 xiv A contrary opinion is cited by a recent report from the United Nations Development Program UNDP which summarizes Russia’s future climate as follows “For Russia as a whole climate change impact can be characterized as the warming accompanied by rising dryness ” Source United Nations Development Program UNDP Renat Perelet Serguey Pegov and Mikhail Yulkin Human Development Report 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 2007 2008 Fighting climate change Human solidarity in a divided world Climate Change Russia Country Paper 2007 xv R W Corell “Challenges of climate change an Arctic perspective ” Ambio 35 no 4 2006 148-152 xvi Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xvii J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xix Source R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig Science 297 2002 1497–1502 xx J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xxi Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xxii V P Meleshko et al “Climate of Russia in the 21st Century Part 3 Future Climate Changes Calculated with an Ensemble of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation CMIP3 Models ” Russian Meteorology and Hydrology xxiii V P Meleshko et al “Climate of Russia in the 21st Century Part 3 Future Climate Changes Calculated with an Ensemble of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation CMIP3 Models ” Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 33 no 9 2008 541–552 ISSN 1068-3739 xxiv WWF World Wildlife Fund “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic and Paths to Solving the Problem ” Russia Moscow 2008 xxv WWF World Wildlife Fund “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic and Paths to Solving the Problem ” Russia Moscow 2008 xxvi J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xxvii J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xxviii Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed March 31 2009 xxix Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed March 31 2009 xxx R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig “Dynamics of Recent Climate Change in the Artic ” Science 297 2002 1497–1502 xxxi Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed March 31 2009 xxxii Oleg Anisimov and Svetlana Reneva “Permafrost and Changing Climate The Russian Perspective ” AMBIO A Journal of the Human Environment 35 no 4 2006 169–175 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxxiii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xxxiv J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xxxv R S Bradley H F Diaz J K Eischeid P D Jones P M Kelly and C M Goodess “Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas since the Mid-19th Century ” Science 237 1987 171–175 xxxvi Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xxxvii One presumes that “climate-related” yield means that other variables have been factored out however this is not explicitly stated in the report xxxviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xxxix Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xl IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xli IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlii Eric F Lambin and Helmut J Geist eds Land-Use And Land-Cover Change Local Processes And Global Impacts Berlin Heidelberg Springer 2006 xliii R S Bradley H F Diaz J K Eischeid P D Jones P M Kelly and C M Goodess Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century ” Science 237 1987 171–175 xliv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xlv Renat Perelet Serguey Pegov and Mikhail Yulkin Human Development Report 2007 2008 Fighting climate change Human solidarity in a divided world Climate Change Russia Country Paper 2007 United Nations Development Program UNDP xlvi J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xlvii J Overpeck K Hughen D Hardy R Bradley R Case M Douglas B Finney K Gajewski G Jacoby A Jennings S Lamoueastreux A Lasca G MacDonald J Moore M Retelle S Smith A Wolfe G Zielinski “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries ” Science 278 no 5341 1997 1251-1256 xlviii Climate Change Risk Management Ltd May 2008 “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts ” http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xlix Climate Change Risk Management Ltd May 2008 “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts ” http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 l Climate Change Risk Management Ltd May 2008 “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts ” http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 li Climate Change Risk Management Ltd May 2008 “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts ” http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lii R S Bradley H F Diaz J K Eischeid P D Jones P M Kelly and C M Goodess Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century ” Science 237 1987 171–175 liii IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 The AR4 Synthesis Report eds Rajendra K Pachauri and Andy Reisinger Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 liv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lv Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lvi R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig “Dynamics of Recent Climate Change in the Artic ” Science 297 2002 1497–1502 lvii R E Moritz C M Bitz and E J Steig “Dynamics of Recent Climate Change in the Artic ” Science 297 2002 1497–1502 lviii Climate Change Risk Management Ltd “Climate Change in Russia research and impacts” May 2008 http www uk-russia-ccproject info documents Impacts_in_Russia_Report_2008 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lix Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lx Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 Also Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxi Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxii Many Russian cities employ district heating systems that are turned on at the beginning of the season and operate at constant output levels until the end of the heating season Consequently there is limited scope to respond to a brief warm spell in the middle of the heating season by producing less heat For the discussion of unrealized fuel savings see Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxiii Government of the Russian Federation “Chetvertoye Natsional’noye Soobshcheniye predstavlyaemoye v sootvetstviyi so stat’yami 4 i 12 Ramochnoy Konventsii Organizatsii Ob’yedinyennikh Natsii ob izmenenii klimata i stat’yey 7 Kyotskogo protokola” “Fourth National Communication presented in accordance with articles 4 and 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol” – in Russian Moscow 2006 lxiv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxvi Clifford Gaddy Fiona Hill Igor Danchenko “The Russian Federation – The Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series ” Washington DC Brookings Institution October 2006 lxvii Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes “Putin’s Third Way ” The National Interest Online January 21 2009 http www nationalinterest org Article aspx id 20496 lxviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxix Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxx International Energy Agency Optimising Russian Natural Gas Reform and Climate Policy Paris OECD IEA 2006 lxxi Already before the financial crisis hit in late 2008 it was clear that to industry analysts that new Gazprom production is lagging behind the company’s ambitious targets Source International Energy Agency IEA 2006 Optimising Russian Natural Gas Reform and Climate Policy Paris OECD IEA 2006 lxxii Jonathan Stern cites more modest and realistic projections for Yamal production See Jonathan P Stern The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom Oxford Oxford University Press 2005 Gazprom itself is even more optimistic than Stern is – and publicly cites the goal of 360 bcm year production by 2030 See Gazprom press release “Gazprom launches Yamal Megaproject ” December 3 2008 http www gazprom ru eng news 2008 12 32740 shtml lxxiii Jonathan P Stern The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom Oxford Oxford University Press 2005 lxxiv Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation and Institute for Energy Strategy “Kontseptsiya Energeticheskoy strategii Rossii do 2030 g proyekt ” “Concept for the Energy Strategy of Russia to 2030 draft ”—in Russian Moscow 2007 lxxv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxvi Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxxvii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxxviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxix Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxx Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 51 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxxxi Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxxxii Igor E Chestin and Nicholas A Colloff eds “Russia and Neighboring Countries Environmental Economic and Social Impacts ” Moscow World Wildlife Fund-Russia WWF-Russia and Oxfam GB 2008 See also Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxxiii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxxiv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxxv Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxxxvi Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 lxxxvii Nikolai Dronin and Andrei Kirilenko “Climate change and food stress in Russia what if the market transforms as it did during the past century ” Climatic Change 86 2008 123-150 lxxxviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 lxxxix Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook 2008 https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html xc Russian Railways company website http www eng rzd ru wps portal rzdeng STRUCTURE_ID 4 xci Roshydromet says the problem of reduced availability of ice roads will particularly affect the Russian Far East Magadan Sakha Yakutia and Chukotka See Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xcii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Strategic Prediction for the Period of up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy” Moscow 2005 http wmc meteoinfo ru media climate Strategic%20prediction_2015 pdf accessed February 17 2009 xciii Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ACIA Impacts of a Warming Climate Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2004 xciv Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ACIA Impacts of a Warming Climate Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2004 xcv Gerald A Meehl Thomas F Stocker et al “Chapter 10 Global Climate Projections ” In IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 The AR4 Synthesis Report eds Rajendra K Pachauri and Andy Reisinger Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 xcvi Cheryl Lyn Dybas “Russia Sees Ill Effects of ‘General Winter’s’ Retreat ” Washington Post April 2 2007 A6 xcvii Renat Perelet Serguey Pegov and Mikhail Yulkin “Climate Change Russia Country Paper” in United Nations Development Program UNDP Human Development Report 2007 2008 Fighting climate change Human solidarity in a divided world 2007 52 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xcviii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 xcix Renat Perelet Serguey Pegov and Mikhail Yulkin “Climate Change Russia Country Paper” in United Nations Development Program UNDP Human Development Report 2007 2008 Fighting climate change Human solidarity in a divided world 2007 c Timothy L Thomas “EMERCOM Russia’s Emergency Response Team ” Low Intensity Conflict and Law Enforcement 4 no 2 Autumn 1995 227-236 http www fas org nuke guide russia agency rusert htm accessed February 16 2009 ci Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 cii Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy The Siberian Curse Washington D C Brookings Institution Press 2003 ciii Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 civ Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet “Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation” Moscow 2008 cv Igor E Chestin and Nicholas A Colloff eds “Russia and Neighboring Countries Environmental Economic and Social Impacts ” Moscow World Wildlife Fund-Russia WWF-Russia and Oxfam GB 2008 cvi Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ACIA Impacts of a Warming Climate Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2004 cvii Scott G Borgerson “Arctic Meltdown The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming ” Foreign Affairs 87 no 2 March April 2008 63-77 cviii Vladimir Isachenkov “Russia sending more ships scientists to Arctic ” Associated Press February 12 2009 http hosted ap org dynamic stories E EU_RUSSIA_ARCTIC_CLAIM SITE COBOU SECTION HOME TEMPLATE DEFAULT accessed February 16 2009 cix David Stringer “Arctic’s thaw brings security risks for NATO ” Associated Press January 30 2009 http www canadianbusiness com markets headline_news article jsp content D9610E5O1 accessed January 30 2009 cx Owen Matthews and Anna Nemtsova “The Kremlin Vigilantes – As anti-immigrant groups grow more violent they get more explicit support from Russian Authorities ” Newsweek International February 23 2009 http www newsweek com id 184777 accessed February 20 2009 cxi Igor E Chestin and Nicholas A Colloff eds “Russia and Neighboring Countries Environmental Economic and Social Impacts ” Moscow World Wildlife Fund-Russia WWF-Russia and Oxfam GB 2008 cxii Anya Ardayeva “Attacks Against Minorities Up in Russia ” Voice of America February 19 2009 http www voanews com english 2009-02-19-voa59 cfm accessed February 20 2009 Owen Matthews and Anna Nemtsova “The Kremlin Vigilantes – As anti-immigrant groups grow more violent they get more explicit support from Russian Authorities ” Newsweek International February 23 2009 http www newsweek com id 184777 accessed February 20 2009 cxiii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Glossary ” Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 cxiv G Yohe and R Tol “Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity ” Global Environmental Change 12 2002 25-40 cxv E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press cxvi N Nakicenovic and R Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 cxvii Nikolai Dronin and Andrei Kirilenko “Climate change and food stress in Russia what if the market transforms as it did during the past century ” Climatic Change 86 2008 123-150 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 54 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Selected Countries A Commissioned Research Report The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-007D August 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication—explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will determine whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC’s Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security To support research by the National Intelligence Council on the national security impacts of global climate change this assessment of the impact of climate change on North Africa through 2030 is being delivered under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on selected countries in North Africa drawing on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports National Communications to the United Nations Framework UNFCCC on Climate Change and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting It includes such impacts as sea-level rise water availability agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to climate change impact The targeted time frame is to 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames This assessment also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC’s understanding of potential impacts on North Africa and other countries regions 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary Model projections available for North Africa indicate a clear increase in temperature over the next 20 years that is expected to continue throughout the 21st century probably at a rate higher than the estimated global average Model simulations also suggest a drying trend in the region particularly along the Mediterranean coast driven by large decreases expected in summertime precipitation Because coastal areas historically receive by far the largest amount of rainfall in North Africa future decreases will likely have a significant and noticeable impact Precipitation trends in the interior semiarid and arid regions of North Africa are more difficult to predict due to the very small amount of natural precipitation that characterizes these areas Climate change will induce some variations in precipitation patterns but the trend is not clear as some models predict slight increases and others predict slight decreases in annual precipitation amounts The Regional Climate Change Index RCCI 1 identifies the Mediterranean as a very responsive region to climate change “Hot-Spot” Given the ecological and socioeconomic characteristics of the southern Mediterranean countries the impact of climate change may be more marked than in other regions of the world Still most of the predicted impacts in the region are already occurring regardless of climate change e g water stress and desertification Climate change is expected to exacerbate these trends Based on global climate projections and given inherent uncertainties the most significant impacts of climate change in North Africa Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya and Egypt will likely include the following • Water Resources Stress 2 All countries of North Africa are presently experiencing water stress Model simulations show a general decrease in rainfall across North Africa with median decreases in average annual precipitation of 12 percent and 6 percent projected for the Mediterranean and Saharan regions respectively This general drying trend for North Africa is punctuated by seasonal variations in projected precipitation that differ by region Predicted decreases in average annual rainfall accompanied by projected increases in the population of the region may impede access to water for millions of inhabitants In addition with decreasing water levels other ecological effects such as salinity in coastal areas and deterioration of water quality may increase • Agriculture Model results are inconsistent regarding future changes in crop yields and agricultural growing seasons in North Africa and we do not know whether variations in temperature precipitation or atmospheric CO2 will be the dominant factor One modeling study suggests that future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase maize yields in Morocco while other modeling studies suggest that future increases in air temperature will have a negative effect on growing seasons and crop yields in Egypt Relatively heat-tolerant species such as maize are expected to suffer the smallest losses in yield and growing area while heat-intolerant crops such as wheat are expected to suffer the largest losses In addition intensive irrigation practices in the region may result in further 1 The RCCI is calculated for 26 land regions from projections of 20 global climate models using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC emission scenarios 2 Water Stress as used by the IPCC refers to a per capita water availability of below 1 000 cubic meters per person per year sometimes IPCC referenced sources also use a ratio of withdrawals to long-term average runoff of 0 4 The IPCC formally defines a country as water stressed when withdrawals exceed 20% of renewable water supply 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views salinity which may lead to desertification Adaptation strategies including modifications in sowing dates to match climate changes and development of heat-tolerant crop varieties will likely mitigate some of the expected negative effects on North African agriculture Development of regional and local climate models in the coming years that include projections of Mediterranean Sea level rise and decreases in the Nile River flow are expected to provide more accurate estimates of future changes in North African agricultural regions • Migration In recent years North Africa has experienced vast migration pressures from both migrants that settle in the region from the south or that use North African countries as a transit area to reach Europe Thus far experts have not cited climate change as a driving force for migration in the region nevertheless a warmer climate and changing precipitation patterns which will likely reduce viable cropland and reduce access to water will increase urbanization and make accommodating the needs of a growing population more difficult Besides food and water necessities climate change-related migration may also imply greater demands on infrastructure along the coasts as well as ethnic racial or religious clashes • Natural Disasters Because of the lack of historical data from tide gauges in the region the wide range of future estimates in sea level and the paucity of regional climate model projections for the Mediterranean Sea a definitive estimate of sea level rise along the coastline of North Africa in the next 20 years is not possible However the intensity and frequency of floods along the Mediterranean coast are expected to increase by the middle of the 21st century Compared to other regions the impacts of sea level rise in North Africa are expected to be stronger in terms of social economic and ecological factors Highly populated and agriculturally important coastal cities are the most vulnerable In addition two more potentially serious impacts are the following • Tourism Tourism is an important source of income for most countries of North Africa Of concern however are the large quantities of water this sector demands and the little attention that governments of this region have given to water provision in the past Thus increased water scarcity sea level rise and increasing temperatures will likely have a negative impact on this sector and consequently the economy of most North African countries • Energy The economies of Algeria Libya and to a lesser extent Egypt are dependent on the hydrocarbon industry Because of the revenues they receive from exporting fossil fuels— mostly to Europe—they are to some degree more resilient to the deleterious impacts of climate change Any shift in the interest of other regions in importing natural gas and oil from North Africa conversely may make these North African countries considerably more vulnerable However there is no indication now that Europe and other importing regions will stop importing from North Africa in the next few decades Based on a comprehensive global comparative study of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model a wide range of adaptive capacity is represented in this group of countries from Libya ranking 34th in a 160-country study to Morocco ranking 136th in the same study Under a high-growth scenario of the future all countries gain adaptive capacity especially Libya However under a delayed-growth scenario all of these North African countries lose adaptive capacity 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of North Africa Climate Predictions Modeling Projections of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level Projections of Future Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climatic Events 8 8 13 14 18 21 Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Human Systems Water Resources Stress Agriculture Migration Natural Disasters Along Coastal Zones Tourism Energy 22 23 26 31 33 33 34 Adaptive Capacity North African Adaptive Capacity in a Global Context 35 36 Conclusions High-Risk Impacts 42 Annexes A Accuracy of Regional Models 43 B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on North Africa 5 This paper does not represent US Government views 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background North Africa is vulnerable to climate change impacts both direct and indirectly e g as a result of any actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus consumption of fossil fuels This report summarizes peer-reviewed and other relevant research about this region including projected climate changes impacts on human and natural systems and the adaptive capacities of countries in the region Literature sources include the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Assessment Report peer-reviewed journal articles and reports generated by governments and scientific organizations The report focuses on the five northernmost countries in Africa Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya and Egypt Collectively the report refers to these countries as “North Africa ” although we recognize that other groups of countries are given this same label 3 All five countries are coastal with northern borders on the Mediterranean Sea A brief description of each country is given below Morocco The Kingdom of Morocco borders the Mediterranean Sea to the north the North Atlantic Ocean to the west the two bodies of water separated by the Straits of Gibraltar Western Sahara to the south and Algeria to the south and east Morocco’s area totals 446 550 sq km including 250 sq km of water Its northern coast and interior are mountainous but it also has plateaus valleys and rich coastal plains The northern mountains are subject to earthquakes and the country experiences periodic droughts Current environmental issues include soil erosion from degradation-causing land management water polluted by raw sewage siltation of reservoirs and oil pollution of coastal waters Its population is about 35 million 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 72 years Its people are 99 percent Muslim with the rest Christian or Jewish Gross Domestic Product GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated by the CIA at $4 000 United States dollars USD equivalent with an unemployment rate of 10 percent 2008 estimate Algeria The People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria is bordered on the west by Morocco Western Sahara and Mauritania on the southwest by Mali on the southeast by Niger and on the east by Libya and Tunisia Its area totals 2 381 740 sq km with no areas of water Algeria’s terrain is mostly high plateau and desert with some mountains and a narrow discontinuous coastal plain Its mountainous areas experience severe earthquakes and the country is subject to mudslides and floods in rainy seasons Algerian population totals about 34 million 2009 CIA estimate Life expectancy at birth is 74 years The population is 99 percent Sunni Muslim the state religion with Christians and Jews composing the remainder Oil and gas account for approximately 60 percent of budget revenues 30 percent of GDP and more than 95 percent of export earnings GDP per capita was estimated for 2008 at $7 000 USD equivalent with an unemployment rate of 13 percent 2008 estimate 3 For a map of North Africa demarcated by the red line see Welt-atlas de Atlas of the World s v “Map of Africa North ” http www welt-atlas de datenbank karten karte-0-9008 gif accessed May 11 2009 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Tunisia The Tunisian Republic is located between Algeria and Libya Its area totals 163 610 sq km including 8 250 sq km of water Tunisia has mountains in the north a hot dry central plain and semiarid regions in the south merging into the Sahara Desert Current environmental issues include ineffective toxic and hazardous waste disposal water polluted by raw sewage limited natural fresh water resources deforestation overgrazing and soil erosion Tunisia’s population totals about 10 5 million 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 76 years Tunisians are 98 percent Muslim 1 percent Christian and 1 percent Jewish and other religions GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated by the CIA at $7 900 USD equivalent with a 14 percent unemployment rate 2008 estimate Libya The Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya lies between Egypt and Tunisia also bordering Sudan to the southeast Niger and Chad to the south and Algeria to the west Libya’s area totals 1 759 540 sq km including no areas of water Its terrain is flat to undulating plains plateaus and depressions its landscape is mostly barren The country is subject to dust and sand storms the ghibli a southern wind that lasts one to four days occurs in spring and fall Current environmental issues include desertification and extremely limited fresh natural water Total population is approximately 6 3 million 2009 CIA estimate Life expectancy at birth is 77 years Citizens are 97 percent Sunni Muslim Revenues from oil contribute about 95 percent of export earnings about one-quarter of GDP and 60 percent of public sector wages Libya imports about three-quarters of its food GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated by the CIA at $14 400 USD equivalent the unemployment rate for 2004 was estimated at 30 percent i Egypt The Arab Republic of Egypt is located between Libya to the west and the Gaza Strip and the Red Sea to the east Egypt includes the Asian Sinai Peninsula and the Suez Canal Egypt’s area totals 1 001 450 sq km including 6 000 sq km of water Except for the Nile River valley and delta Egypt is a desert plateau It is subject to periodic droughts earthquakes flash floods landslides dust and sand storms and a driving windstorm called khamsin in the spring Current environmental issues encompass loss of agricultural land to urbanization soil salination below the Aswan High Dam oil and water pollution and limited natural fresh water that is increasingly stressed by population growth Current population is about 83 million 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 72 years Citizens are 90 percent Muslim mostly Sunni 9 percent Coptic and 1 percent Christian and other religions GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated by the CIA to be $5 400 USD equivalent with an unemployment rate of 8 7 percent Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of North Africa The climate of North Africa varies substantially between coastal and inland areas of the region Along the coast North Africa has a Mediterranean climate which is characterized by mild wet winters and warm dry summers with ample rainfall of approximately 400 to 600 mm per year Inland the countries of North Africa have semiarid and arid desert climates which are marked by extremes in daily high and low temperatures with hot summers and cold winters and little rainfall—approximately 200 to 400 mm per year for semiarid regions and less than 100 mm per year for desert regions ii Figure 1 a plot of average daily rainfall in North Africa for the period 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 1983-2005 illustrates the demarcation between the coastal and inland climate zones The Mediterranean climate zone indicated by the blue-green and turquoise-colored shading runs along a relatively thin strip of land bordering the coasts of Morocco Algeria Tunisia and parts of Libya and Egypt The semiarid climate zone indicated by the blue shading is a transition zone between the Mediterranean zone and the arid desert climate zone which is indicated by the dark blue shading As Figure 1 shows the semiarid and desert climate zones dominate and most of North Africa is very dry Along the coast the rainy season typically runs from October to March or April Torrential downpours during the rainy season can cause devastating flooding and droughts occur frequently in the dry inland regions sometimes lasting for years at a time iii Figures 2 through 4 show the monthly average daily minimum temperatures daily maximum temperatures and total rainfall amounts for the capital cities in North Africa all of which are situated on the Mediterranean coast and thus have ample rainfall except for Cairo Egypt Tunisia Morocco Figure 1 Daily average precipitation rates for North Africa during the period 1983-2005 Latitude °N is listed on the y-axis and longitude is listed on the x-axis negative values are °W and positive values are °E Precipitation values were measured by satellite daily values were derived by dividing the total monthly averaged amount of precipitation for a given month by the number of days in the month for the 22-year climatology period Source NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy Global Regional Data http eosweb larc nasa gov cgi-bin sse sse cgi na s01#s01 accessed May 18 2009 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 25 15 10 Algiers Tripoli Tunis 5 Cairo be r be r D ec em r ov em N ct ob e O be r em Se pt Au gu st ly Ju Ju ne M ay Ap r il ch M ar br ua ry Fe ry 0 Ja nu a Minimum Temperature °C 20 Month Figure 2 Monthly averaged daily minimum temperatures for capital cities in North Africa Climatology values for Algiers Algeria are averaged over the period 1976-2005 values for Tunis Tunisia are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Tripoli Libya are averaged over the period 1961-1990 and values for Cairo Egypt are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Rabat Morocco are not available Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed May 15 2009 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 35 25 20 15 Algiers Tripoli 10 Tunis Cairo 5 t Se pt em be r O ct ob er N ov em be r D ec em be r Au gu s Ju ly Ju ne ay M Ap ril h M ar c nu ar y Fe br ua ry 0 Ja Maximum Temperature °C 30 Month Figure 3 Monthly averaged daily maximum temperatures for capital cities in North Africa Climatology values for Algiers Algeria are averaged over the period 1976-2005 values for Tunis Tunisia are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Tripoli Libya are averaged over the period 1961-1990 and values for Cairo Egypt are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Rabat Morocco are not available Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed May 15 2009 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 100 Algiers 90 Tripoli Tunis 80 Total Precipitation mm Cairo 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 er N ov em be r De ce m be r ct ob O em be r us t Se pt Au g y Ju l Ju ne M ay Ap ril M ar ch y ru ar Fe b Ja nu a ry 0 Month Figure 4 Monthly averaged total precipitation values for capital cities in North Africa Climatology values for Algiers Algeria are averaged over the period 1976-2005 values for Tunis Tunisia are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Tripoli Libya are averaged over the period 1961-1990 and values for Cairo Egypt are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Rabat Morocco are not available Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed May 15 2009 An important distinctive climatic feature of North Africa is the sirocco a hot dry southerly wind that occurs year round Siroccos are typically strongest in the spring when they can reach gale force strength defined as sustained wind speeds of 34 to 47 knots Wind events generally last 10 to 12 hours but events as long as 36 hours have been observed The winds originate over the Sahara Desert and blow north across North Africa over the Mediterranean Sea and into southern Europe Because siroccos flow from the desert they typically contain large amounts of sand and dust that limit visibility and can damage machinery Siroccos are caused by the westto-east progression of extratropical cyclones low pressure systems across the Mediterranean 4 4 Sirocco winds are caused by the eastward progression of extratropical cyclones across the Mediterranean Sea where a low pressure center entrains southerly winds in a warm sector and thereby generates the sirocco winds See Weather Online Wind of the World Sorocco http www weatheronline co uk reports wind The-Sirocco htm accessed May 15 2009 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The sirocco is called by different names across the North African region including chili in Tunisia ghibli in Libya and khamsin in Egypt iv Climate Predictions Modeling General circulation models GCMs are the main tool used by scientists to project future climate change These models simulate atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as processes that occur on land As a result GCMs are very complex models and they tend to have rather low spatial resolutions on the order of 400 to 125 km To obtain model information on the local and regional scales such as for North Africa at higher resolutions than native GCM grid sizes “downscaling” is used There are two main downscaling methods dynamical and statistical Dynamical downscaling involves the use of high-resolution climate models with observed or simulated data as boundary conditions This approach has high credibility but it is computationally expensive In contrast statistical downscaling which involves application of established relationships between observed data and modeled data is computationally inexpensive and it can replicate finer scales than dynamical downscaling Statistical downscaling methods do not accurately simulate regional feedback effects however v In general GCM predictions of temperature changes for a given region are consistent but predictions of precipitation changes can vary widely due to the difficulty in simulating the myriad factors that influence precipitation frequency duration and intensity An additional complication for North Africa is the fact that most of the region has an arid or semiarid climate and thus receives little rainfall annually as shown in Figure 1 Given the very low level of annual rainfall that occurs in the region it is inherently difficult to predict changes in precipitation associated with future climate change A more detailed discussion of the ability of GCMs to project regional climate changes is given in Annex A GCMs simulate changes in climate under scenarios of future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions The 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES vi laid out the four basic scenario families used by IPCC scientists to predict future climate change they are summarized in Table 1 This set of scenarios is designed to represent the range of possible future global conditions that will influence greenhouse gas emissions The scenarios are based on consistent and reproducible assumptions about global forces that impact greenhouse gas emissions including economic development population and technological change Climate researchers frequently use GCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation These models are representative of many GCMs used to simulate the effects of climate change The HadCM2 model has four different integrations that represent the climate effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide water vapor ozone methane and nitrous oxide absorb infrared radiation emitted from the Earth and subsequently emit it back into the atmosphere which results in a net warming of the Earth’s surface HadCM2 includes the combined forcing of all greenhouse gases as an equivalent CO2 concentration of 0 5 percent or 1 percent depending on the integration HadCM2 can also incorporate the negative direct forcing of sulfate aerosols by means of an increase in clear-sky albedo sulfate forcing is 0 5 percent or 1 percent depending on the model integration The influence of sulfate aerosols is important because they reflect incoming solar radiation thus less energy reaches the surface of the Earth which results in a net cooling of the Earth’s surface Each integration of HadCM2 has four ensembles from which an ensemble mean can be calculated vii Ensembles are used to represent the range in uncertainty of model predictions In this case the same model HadCM2 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views is run four times using different initial conditions The average of a series of ensembles is always more accurate than any single model run HadCM2 has a spatial resolution of 2 5° latitude by 3 75° longitude In general this resolution is sufficient to resolve climate changes on a country-level scale in North Africa without the need for downscaling or temporal smoothing viii To simulate local climate changes however downscaling is required Emission Scenario Economic Development Global Population Technology Changes A1 Very rapid Peaks around mid21st century and declines thereafter Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies A2 Regionally-oriented Continuously increasing Slower and more fragmented than A1 B1 and B2 B1 Rapid change toward service and information economy B2 Intermediate levels of economic development Same as A1 Continuously increasing but not as fast as A2 Introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies Less rapid and more diverse changes than A1 and B1 Theme Convergence among regions increased cultural and social interactions Self-reliance and preservation of local identities Global solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability Local solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability Table 1 Summary of IPCC emissions scenarios Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm In contrast to the most recent GCMs which are run under conditions matching the various IPCC emissions scenarios many GCMs prior to approximately 2000 were run under more simplistic conditions The most common method of simulating climate change in the older models was with an equivalent doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations 2×CO2 which represented the net radiative effect of increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times typically equivalent to 560 ppm of CO2 Models established a baseline using “current” CO2 concentrations 1×CO2 and the change between 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 in model output was considered representative of future climate change Under this type of scenario researchers often neglected to frame the model results in terms of specific decadal changes so the exact timeframe for projected climate changes was not specified Additional information on the GCMs mentioned in this report is available from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre http www ipcc-data org Projections of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation According to M Humle et al average annual surface temperatures and to a lesser degree total precipitation amounts have changed in North Africa during the 20th century ix Surface temperatures have risen across the region especially in Tunisia and northern Algeria which experienced an approximately 2 to 3°C increase in temperature The trend in precipitation is less certain likely due to the relatively small amounts of rainfall historically observed across much of 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views North Africa There was a slight increase of 0 to 10 percent in total rainfall observed in the semiarid and arid regions and a slight decrease of 0 to 10 percent observed along the coastal regions during the 20th century We do not know the degree to which these observed trends in temperature and precipitation are due to the influence of climate change versus other anthropogenic effects particularly changes in land cover and land use Several researchersx have suggested that soil degradation vegetation loss and deforestation in Africa associated with changes in agricultural and grazing practices urbanization and construction of transportation infrastructure over the past 50 years have been major drivers for regional temperature and precipitation variability and that increases in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations have played a lesser role Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere during the 21st century are expected to cause a net warming of the Earth’s surface and the relative influence of changes in land use and cover in Africa may contribute to this trend as well A recent modeling studyxi that simulated future changes in temperature and precipitation in Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes found that the effect of land cover on total climate change appeared to be limited to tropical Africa and did not influence adjacent regions such as the Sahara Desert or Mediterranean Basin As a result changes in land use and cover are likely to have a limited effect on future changes in temperature and precipitation in North Africa the largest influence probably will be due to forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols To quantify regional future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change the IPCC uses a coordinated set of climate model simulations archived at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison called the multi-model dataset or MMD Although the MMD models have significant systematic errors in prediction of some major observed climatic events in Africa such as rainfall in southern Africa placement of the Atlantic Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ITCZ and ocean upwelling off the West Africa coast they have predicted robust regional trends in temperature and precipitation for North Africa xii Figure 5 shows the projected increases in temperature for the Southern European and Mediterranean SEM and Saharan Africa SAH regions for the 21st century As defined by the IPCC and shown by the green highlighted areas in Figure 5 the Southern European and Mediterranean region encompasses 30°N to 48°N latitude and 10°W to 40°E longitude and the Saharan Africa region encompasses 18°N to 30°N latitude and 20°E to 65°E longitude Taken together the southernmost portion of the SEM region combined with the western two-thirds of the SAH region comprise the North African area that is the focus of this report The SEM region corresponds to the coastal areas of North Africa that have a Mediterranean climate while the SAH region corresponds to the inland areas of North Africa that have semiarid and arid desert climates To obtain the temperature information shown in Figure 5 a subset of 58 simulations from 14 models of the MMD was used for the observed period and 47 simulations from 18 models for the future projections the future projections were calculated for the A1B emissions scenario The width of the shading and the bars in Figure 5 represent the 5 to 95 percent range of the model output Model simulations are presented in the context of observed warming during the 20th century which is important because if GCMs cannot accurately reproduce observed climatic data they cannot be relied upon to simulate future climate changes Numerical results from simulations of 21 MMD models are summarized in Table 2 and show that by the end of the 21st century annual mean temperatures in the Mediterranean and Saharan regions of North Africa are 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views expected to increase by median values of 3 5 and 3 6°C respectively for the A1B scenario with the largest increases expected during the summer months of June July and August These temperature increases are larger than the global annual mean warming of 2 8°C predicted by the MMD models for the same period xiii The IPCC also used the MMD models to estimate precipitation changes for the 21st century under the A1B scenario As shown in Table 2 the model simulations show a general decrease in rainfall across North Africa with median decreases in average annual precipitation of 12 percent and 6 percent projected for the Mediterranean and Saharan regions respectively This general drying trend for North Africa is punctuated by seasonal variations in projected precipitation that differ by region All of the MMD models show a clear decrease in future precipitation in the SEM region with the largest decrease of 24 percent expected during the months of June July and August This drying trend is likely driven by increased moisture divergence and a systematic northward shift of the storm tracks affecting winter precipitation in the region as well as losses in soil moisture during the summer xiv Results are less definitive for the SAH region all of the MMD models predict a clear decrease in future precipitation of 18 percent for the period December to May but the predicted decrease is much smaller for the months of June July and August Furthermore the models predict a slight increase in future precipitation of 6 percent for the months of September October and November in the SAH region Some of these variations in predictions of future precipitation trends are likely related to uncertainty in the ability of climate models to successfully downscale precipitation over Africa xv Season Annual Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Temperature Change °C SEM SAH 3 5 3 6 2 6 3 2 3 2 3 6 4 1 4 1 3 3 3 7 Precipitation Change % SEM SAH -12 -6 -6 -18 -16 -18 -24 -4 -12 6 Table 2 Median changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by a set of 21 IPCC MMD models under the A1B emissions scenario for the Southern Europe and Mediterranean SEM and Saharan Africa SAH regions Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 5 Temperature changes in °C predicted by the IPCC MMD models for the Southern Europe and Mediterranean SEM and Saharan Africa SAH regions Temperature anomalies for the region with respect to 1901-1950 are shown for 1906-2005 black line as simulated by the MMD models using known forcings red envelope and as projected for 20012100 by the MMD models for the A1B scenario orange envelope The colored horizontal bars on the right side of the figure represent the range of projected changes for 2091-2100 for the B1 scenario blue the A1B scenario orange and the A2 scenario red The width of the shading and the bars represent the 5 to 95 percent range of the model results xvi 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The same trends in future temperature and precipitation changes predicted by the IPCC MMD models also have been simulated by several North African regional and country-specific studies In an analysis of climate change in Africa through 2100 Hulme et alxvii used seven GCMs run under the A1 A2 B1 and B2 emissions scenarios to project temperature and precipitation changes for the “2020s” and “2050s” relative to 1961-1990 For the North Africa region the models predicted temperature increases of 0 9 to 1°C and 1 8 to 2 2°C for the B1 and A2 scenarios respectively for the “2020s” and increases of 1 2 to 1 5°C and 3 1 to 4 4°C for the B1 and A2 scenarios respectively for the “2050s ” Precipitation projections were less definitive but involved a drying trend for the region especially along the Mediterranean coast of North Africa that is expected to become more pronounced with time The future drying trend was also observed in a study of anthropogenic climate change in the Mediterranean region for the end of the 21st century xviii Results from a global variableresolution climate model run under the B2 emissions scenario projected a decrease of 0 065 mm day in annual average precipitation for the period 2070-2099 relative to 1960-1989 The authors predicted that evaporation in the Mediterranean basin would increase in winter and spring but decrease in summer and fall despite projected increases in surface temperature leading to the net decrease in regional precipitation Giorgixix found similar results in his development of a Regional Climate Change Index RCCI from the output of 20 GCMs run under the A1B A2 and B1 emissions scenarios Giorgi determined that the Mediterranean region was one of the two most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change due to the large decrease in mean precipitation predicted by the GCMs for the period 2080-2099 Most recently Paeth et alxx used the regional REMO GCM run under the A1B emissions scenario to estimate annual mean temperature and precipitation changes in tropical and North Africa through 2050 REMO is a synoptic scale model for Africa that has a spatial resolution of 5° Paeth et al results confirm those of the IPCC and previous researchers who predict a warming and drying trend in the region over the next century Paeth et al estimate that by 2050 surface temperatures in North Africa will increase by approximately 1 5 to 2°C and precipitation will decrease by 10 to 30 percent across many of the desert areas of the region with larger precipitation decreases of up to 200 percent along the coasts of Morocco Algeria and Tunisia These regional trends in temperature and precipitation are supported by a recent country-scale model analysis for Morocco xxi Results from a statistical analysis of output from a series of GCMs suggest that mean annual surface temperatures in Morocco will increase by 0 6 to 1 1°C and annual precipitation will decrease by 4 percent for the period 2000-2020 Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level As the global ocean warms due to climate change its volume will increase and as a result sea level will rise The rate of sea level rise differs on a regional scale principally due to local variations in the balance between the density and circulation of the oceans Recent changes in Mediterranean Sea level along the North African coast are difficult to quantify due to lack of observational data An analysisxxii of tide gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level PSMSL data set indicates that Mediterranean Sea level rose at a rate of approximately 1 mm per year during the 20th century This value is based on data from stations situated along the southern European coast however and therefore may not be completely representative of recent changes in sea level along the coast of North Africa Only a few tide gauge stations are located along the North African coast – near the Strait of Gibraltar and the Nile River Delta – and these stations 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views do not have a long enough record to reliably estimate changes in sea level during the 20th century The sparseness of tide gauge records is a global problem and researchers have attempted to overcome this issue by combining the tide gauge observations with satellite altimeter data Recent analysis of tide gauge records and data from the TOPEX Poseidon satellite altimeter indicate that Mediterranean Sea level rose approximately 0 5 to 1 mm per year during the period 1950-2000 xxiii Thus although definitive assessment of recent changes in Mediterranean Sea level is not possible it seems likely that sea level rose along the coast of North Africa by approximately 0 5 to 1 mm per year for at least the second half of the 20th century This increase is less than the global average sea level rise of 1 8 ± 0 5 mm per year for 1961 to 2003 and 1 7 ± 0 5 mm per year for the 20th century estimated by IPCC using PSMSL tide gauge records xxiv Using the ensemble mean of a subset of 16 models from the MMD the IPCC has estimated future regional changes in sea level due to thermal expansion including ocean density and circulation changes The majority of future sea level rise is expected to be caused by the thermal expansion of oceans and the rest will be due to melting ice sheets and glaciers with minor contributions from land subsidence and changes in atmospheric pressure xxv Results for the projected sea level rise due to thermal expansion for North Africa for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for the A1B emissions scenario are shown in Figure 6 These sea level projections are given in relation to the average global sea level increase of 13 to 32 cm due to thermal expansion that has been predicted by the IPCC MMD models for the same period under the A1B scenario The global MMD climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to capture future changes in the Mediterranean Sea therefore the only relevant projected changes in sea level indicated by Figure 6 for this report are for the Atlantic coast of Morocco Figure 6 indicates that sea level along the Atlantic coast of Morocco will rise approximately 0 to 5 cm above the global average value at the end of the 21st century for a net increase of 18 to 37 cm under the A1B scenario Since the global MMD climate models are not able to simulate future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea region downscaling and use of regional climate models are required Only one climate model is currently available at the regional scale for accurately simulating future changes in the climate of the Mediterranean Sea region the Sea-Atmosphere Mediterranean Model SAAM Developed by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM in France SAAM is an ocean-atmosphere regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 9 to 12 km xxvi 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 6 Projected changes in local sea level due to thermal expansion for the period 20802099 relative to the period 1980-1999 Sea level change was calculated as the difference between averages of projections for 2080-2099 and 1980-1999 from the ensemble mean of 16 GCMs run under the A1B emissions scenario The local sea level changes shown are above below the global average sea level rise of 13 to 32 cm due to thermal expansion that is expected by the end of the 21st century under the A1B emissions scenario Changes in sea level associated with thermal expansion include changes in ocean density and circulation xxvii To predict future changes in Mediterranean Sea level rise SAAM was run for the period 19602099 under the A2 emissions scenario xxviii The model simulated changes in Mediterranean Sea level associated with thermal expansion of the oceans and did not include contributions from melting ice sheets and glaciers Results show that projected sea level rise associated with changes in water density on the order of 5 to 20 cm is significantly larger than that associated with changes in circulation on the order of 0 to 3 cm The largest increase in sea level on the North African coast is expected to be approximately 15 to 20 cm 5 to 6 5 mm per year along the Algerian coast Mediterranean Sea level rise along the rest of the North African coast is expected to be approximately 5 cm 1 7 mm per year or less These regional Mediterranean Sea level projections are roughly comparable to the average global sea level increase of 3 8 ±01 3 mm per year due to thermal expansion that has been predicted by the IPCC MMD models for the period 2080-2100 under the A2 emissions scenario xxix It is important to note that the regional Mediterranean Sea level projections are derived from a single model run thus their results are significantly more uncertain than would analogous results from an ensemble of models but they represent the most current estimates of sea level rise along the North African coast Older model projections provide a more pessimistic view of sea level increases in the North African region A recent analysisxxx of the impacts of sea level rise on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco used model simulations from a 1996 modeling studyxxxi that predicted sea level increases of 20 to 86 cm along the Moroccan coast by 2100 under the old IS92a emissions 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views scenario The IS92a scenario assumed a worldwide rate of greenhouse gas emissions that would cause a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century which is too aggressive by about 50 years according to recent estimates xxxii thus making the accuracy of 1996 model study uncertain In addition an unspecified Tunisian model study cited in the Initial Communication of Tunisia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change projected a sea level increase of 38 to 55 cm along the Tunisian coast by 2100 xxxiii Projections of Future Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climatic Events Little research has been conducted on changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events in Africa either in analysis of past observations or future model predictions North Africa is not subject to tropical cyclones hurricanes or directly impacted by the El Niño – Southern Oscillation ENSO phenomenon The most common extreme events in the region are droughts and floods There is some evidence that the intensity and frequency of floods and droughts have been increasing in recent years although we do not know to what extent these increases are due to the influence of climate change versus other anthropogenic effects such as changes in land cover or irrigation practices Catastrophic floods in Algeria and Morocco in 2001-2002 caused extensive destruction of property and loss of life xxxiv The worst flooding event in Algerian history occurred in Algiers on November 10-14 2001 when the equivalent of an entire month of rainfall fell in a matter of several hours 751 people died and property losses were estimated at $300 million USD equivalent In Morocco 63 people died and hundreds of hectares of agricultural land were damaged from a devastating flood on November 20-27 2002 In addition climatic data from Morocco Algeria and Tunisia indicate that the frequency of droughts increased from approximately one per decade to 5-6 per decade during the course of the 20th century xxxv The IPCCxxxvi reports that in regions where mean drying is expected such as North Africa in the 21st century there will be a proportionally larger decrease in the number of rainy days expected to occur This result suggests that although there will be less net rainfall in the region in the future rain will be more intense on days that it does fall indicating a compensation between intensity and frequency of precipitation that may lead to enhanced flooding In its First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change xxxvii Morocco outlined several likely changes in extreme events based on climate scenarios developed according to IPCC guidelines In the 21st century the frequency and intensity of frontal and convective thunderstorms in the regions north and west of the Atlas Mountains5 are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the southern and eastern portions of the country are expected to increase and the length of the rainy season is expected to decrease Sea level rise associated with climate change is expected to increase flooding along the coast from storm surges xxxviii For example a recent analysis of the potential increase in flooding along the eastern Mediterranean coast of Moroccoxxxix predicts that for a sea level rise of 20 to 86 cm 24 to 59 percent of the coastal area will be lost due to flooding in 2050-2100 Residential recreational and agricultural lands are expected to be most impacted 5 The Atlas Mountains extend across northern Africa from Morocco to Tunisia separating the coastal areas from the Sahara Desert Separate ranges in Morocco running from southwest to northeast include the Anti-Atlas the High Atlas and the Middle Atlas Ranges 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Due to lack of research it is not possible to predict any definitive future trends in the frequency or intensity of extreme climatic events in North Africa Droughts and floods are the most common extreme climatic events that occur in North Africa and there is observational evidence that their frequency and intensity have increased in the past 10 to 20 years especially in Morocco Algeria and Tunisia Likely future changes across the region include periods of more intense rainfall and increases in coastal flooding from storm surges associated with sea level rise Impacts of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems According to Claudia Ringler 2009 xl a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute “While population diet patterns and urbanization currently have a greater impact on water security by 2025 climate change will account for more of the threat ” As pointed out by a number of studies reviewed in this report the general drying trend predicted for North Africa may in turn translate to sizable impacts on the region’s agriculture In 2005 the agricultural area of the three largest countries in North Africa—Algeria Libya and Egypt—was estimated at about 60 3 million hectares 11 7 percent xli The size of agricultural area in Morocco and Tunisia is considerably larger—62 9 percent and 68 1 percent of land respectively 2005 estimate Almost all of Libya and Egypt’s land is desert 94-96 percent xlii The geography of land use and demographic patterns of both countries reveal that rainfall water resources is the dominant factor in Libya and the Nile River the dominant factor source of water in Egypt One-quarter of northern Algeria is unproductive only 3 percent of its land is cultivated despite having 25 percent of the population involved in agriculture xliii Similar to Algeria only a small percentage of Egypt’s land is arable but unlike Algeria its land is largely productive and can be cropped two to three times annually In Libya almost all crops are grown for domestic consumption Cereals are produced in the northwestern Tripolitania and eastern Cyrenaica regions of the country while agriculture in the southwestern region Fezzan of the country is concentrated in the oases Morocco is relatively self-sufficient in food production but due to recent occurrences of drought it has been forced to import grains during some years In Tunisia fertile land is usually limited to the north where cereals olives fruits grapes and vegetables are harvested Currently Tunisia’s growing season provides the country an advantage by allowing it to profit from exporting fresh produce to Europe before European crops ripen Table 3 summarizes agricultural production major exports and imports and the total size of agriculture as part of each North African country’s GDP Water resources and agriculture being intertwined impacts are discussed first followed by a discussion of climate change impacts on migration coastal areas tourism and energy 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Agricultural Production Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia Major Exports Wheat Cow milk fresh Indigenous sheep meat Dates Oil of maize Cocoa butter Tomatoes Rice paddy Buffalo milk Indigenous chicken meat Olives Indigenous sheep meat Wheat Cow milk whole fresh Indigenous chicken meat Cotton lint Rice milled Oranges Skins dry salted sheep Crude organic materials NES Skins with wool sheep Tangerines mandarins clementines satsumas Crude organic materials NES Oranges Oil of olive virgin Dates Crude organic materials NES Olives Wheat Tomatoes Major Imports Agricultural GDP as share of total GDP Percent 2004 Wheat Dry whole cow milk Dry skim cow milk Wheat Maize Cake of soybeans Flour of wheat Oil of maize Wheat Wheat Maize Oil of soybeans Wheat Cake of soybeans Maize 9 8 15 1 --- 15 9 12 6 Table 3 2006 Agricultural Outlook in North Africa Information not available Source FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations s v “Agricultural sector ” FAO Country Profiles 2006 http www fao org countryprofiles Water Resources Stress Observed trends pointing to a drier North Africa will have severe implications on the region’s water availability accessibility and demand Already North Africa is experiencing high water stress According to Ashton 2002 xliv even without climate change North African countries will surpass their maximum economically usable land-based water resources before 2025 Population increases accompanied by growing water demands are causing significant water deficits in these arid countries For the period 1990-2002 the average annual population growth in North Africa was the highest in the world at 2 9 percent xlv At the same time the Water Exploitation Index i e total water extraction per year as a percentage of long-term freshwater resources is high for most countries of the region more than 50 percent for Tunisia Algeria and Morocco and more than 90 percent for Egypt and Libya xlvi Physical water scarcity6 becomes apparent when withdrawals surpass 40 percent of the annually renewable resource xlvii Given an expected population growth in the region of approximately 50 million between 2025 and 2050 xlviii climate change-induced droughts are likely to place further stress on North Africa’s freshwater resources With an increase of 3°C for example an estimated 155-600 million North Africans will experience water stress xlix In preparation for Morocco’s Initial Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC a partial study of vulnerability to climate change 6 Physical water scarcity is water availability of less than 1 000 cubic meters per person per year 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views impacts was conducted l Based on this study it is expected that by 2020 climate change-related disruptions in rainfall will reduce dam capacity i e concentrated rainfall and rapid sludge accumulation exacerbated by erosions upset river flow rates and decrease water levels thereby effectively decreasing natural outlets for water tables and increasing salinity in coastline areas and deteriorate water quality The study estimated the result will be a 10-15 percent reduction of Morocco’s water resources This same reduction is estimated for Algeria The IPCC Assessmentli further reports that projected temperature increases of 1-4°C and declines in precipitation of up to 10 percent are likely to result in annual reductions in runoff in Morocco’s Ouergha watershed 7 For example holding precipitation levels constant a 1°C rise in temperature could lead to a 10 percent reduction in runoff lii Assuming annual runoff reductions in other watersheds the aggregate decline is equivalent to the loss of one large dam per year in the region According to GTZ 2007 liii a private international enterprise that collaborated with various Tunisian ministries and authorities as well as several nongovernmental organizations to develop an adaptation strategy to climate change in the country’s agricultural sector Tunisia’s water resources are estimated to decline 28 percent by 2030 Of particular risk will be the loss of groundwater reserves Yet a graver situation may be experienced in Egypt where it is predicted that 74 8 percent of Egyptians will have less than adequate fresh water supply by 2030 liv With climate change comes a looming potential for conflict over water resources Over extraction of water together with the impacts of climate change may lead governments to divert major river dams construct large dams or tap underground aquifers that traverse beneath the territory of neighboring countries lv Such may prove to be the case with the large fossil-water aquifers beneath the Sahara desert—namely the Eastern Erg artesian aquifer which extends from Algeria into Tunisia and the Nubian Sandstone underlying Libya Egypt and Sudan lvi There are already concerns that the latter is generating international conflict Libya is tapping the Nubian aquifer on a massive scale as part of its “Great Manmade River” project lvii This in turn is creating fear that pumping water beneath Libyan territory is draining groundwater reserves in Egypt and Sudan Similarly with increased heat and aridity conflicts over the Nile River may surface between Egypt and its neighboring countries Egypt’s dependence on the Nile River is appreciable more than 95 percent of its water needs are satisfied from the Nile lviii The Nile waters which originate outside Egypt traverse nine countries to the South Sudan Eritrea Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Burundi and Zaire Although the Nile River is governed by International Law the Nile Agreement of 1959 signed by Egypt and Sudan and despite relatively consistent cordial relations between Egypt and Sudan disputes over water between the two countries have occurred In 1995 in the wake of the assassination attempt on President Hosni Mubarak accusations began flying back and forth between Cairo and Khartoum and Sudan threatened to “cut off Egypt’s water ”lix The fact that Sudan lacks the engineering capacity to carry out such a threat did little to soften the frenzy in the Cairo press and the current Arab League’s Secretary-General Amr Moussa then former Egyptian Foreign Minister warned Islamic leader Hassan al-Turabi not “to play with fire ”lx 7 The Ouergha River is a tributary of the Sebou River the largest by volume in Morocco in northern Morocco and the source of water for the Al Wahda Dam the second-largest dam in Africa 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views As less water becomes available the demand for water grows higher and with higher demand the need to rely on costly water treatment and extraction methods increases Wastewater treatment and re-use has become prevalent in Tunisia Egypt and Morocco the use of desalinated water has become prevalent in Egypt and Libya lxi In addition North Africa is increasingly investing in water infrastructure accounting for more than 20 percent of public sector investment in Morocco and Tunisia and 12 percent in Algeria lxii In 2002 Ragab and Prudhommelxiii reported that • By 2010 Algeria estimates it will need another 5 5 km3 of water annually 50 percent for irrigation and 50 percent for domestic and industrial uses It plans to build 50 more dams and 10 diverting canals and will tap non-renewable fossil water beneath the Sahara • In 2000 Tunisia expected to use 90 percent of its surface water in the north and all of its groundwater Part of the country’s agenda is to build new large dams and develop a network of pipes and canals for water transportation between river basins As a result of these efforts Tunisia will be able to transport more than half of the water captured behind dams in the northern regions • Morocco plans to double the proportion of its river flow that is controlled by dams and extract more groundwater It will construct 60 large dams 100 km-long sink boreholes and construct 280 km of water-transportation structures • Libya intends to tap more underground water and transport it to the coastal aquifers which have been excessively depleted due to overextraction Libya’s annual water withdrawal is larger than the volume of its renewable resources According to Egypt’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC Egypt also is undergoing massive projects to divert some of the Nile waters to Northern Sinai and to the Toshka depression in the extreme southern part of the country lxiv In addition 70 percent of cultivated areas rely on lowefficiency surface irrigation systems which result in high water losses a decline in land productivity saturation of the ground with water and salinity problems lxv As the true costs of pollution and water scarcity become increasingly apparent however governments and policymakers are also becoming increasingly willing to address water problems lxvi In 2007 Algeria Egypt and Morocco spent 20 and 30 percent of their budgets on water Bucknall’s Making the Most of Scarcity Accountability for Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa 2007 lxvii assesses that by 2050 MENA governments will most likely begin to employ water for enterprises that generate the highest amount of money and employment and begin to import more hydro-intensive crops such as wheat The report estimates that the cost of water-related environmental problems is between 0 5 and 2 5 percent of GDP for most countries Given that the volume of water available for food production has not been sufficient to satisfy increasing demand Wichelns 2000 lxviii describes the role of virtual water i e the volume of water embodied in food crops that are traded internationally as a method by which North African countries have coped with water scarcity in the past Such was the case during the boom of the 1970s when higher incomes and increasing populations created a greater demand for food that could only be generated by increasing food imports 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Agriculture Irrigation plays the most crucial role in the arid regions which are characterized by low rainfall or evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation most of the year and high interannual rainfall variability Accordingly water scarcity related to climate change is expected to have negative consequences on North Africa’s agriculture Water and land resources in North Africa are primarily used for agriculture lxix North Africa accounts for more than 41 percent about 6 million hectares of total irrigated lands in Africa lxx Consequently the Northern region represents more than half of the agricultural water withdrawal of the continent lxxi In North Africa rising temperatures associated with climate change are expected to decrease the land areas suitable for agriculture shorten the length of growing seasons and reduce crop yields lxxii The decrease in annual precipitation that is predicted for Northern Africa in the 21st century will exacerbate these effects particularly in semiarid and arid regions that rely on irrigation for crop growth Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to stimulate plant photosynthesis however which might result in higher crop yields and could offset some of the negative effects of higher temperatures and less rainfall in the region Only a few systematic modeling studies of the effects of climate change on agriculture in North Africa are available possibly due to the relatively small areas of arable land in the region combined with the lack of suitable regional or downscaled climate model information For example only about 3 percent of the total land area of Egypt can be used for farming almost all of it in the Nile River Delta and Valley lxxiii GCMs cannot accurately resolve temperature and precipitation variations on such a small spatial scale which makes evaluation of future agricultural changes difficult Already however the areas suitable for agriculture are heavily exploited lxxiv Arable land availability food price shocks and population growth are current problems lxxv In addition policymakers in the region tend to adopt agricultural policies that favor perimeter irrigation construction of dams and the development of tourism sectors which are water-intensive over more traditional agricultural cultivation which requires less water e g wheat and the development of fruits and vegetables for export lxxvi Based on observations experiments and model analyses made by the National Institute for Agricultural Research in Morocco several potential changes to agricultural growing seasons in Morocco were outlined in Morocco’s First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change lxxvii Likely changes in the 21st century include a reduction in the growth period of regional crops a reduction in the duration of crop cycles and an increase in the risk of dry periods during the course of crop cycles Several researchers have used GCM climate simulations in conjunction with crop models in an attempt to quantify the effects of climate change on crop yields particularly in Morocco and Egypt Jones and Thornton 2003 lxxviii investigated the potential changes in maize production associated with climate change in Africa and Latin America including Morocco using the HadCM2 model The authors focused on maize because it is an important crop for smallholder farmers in those regions HadCM2 simulated changes in temperature and precipitation for the period 2040-2069 “2055” and these climate projections were used by the CERES-Maize crop model to simulate the growth development and yield of maize crops Model results predicted a substantial increase in maize crop yield in Morocco in 2055 due to the effects of climate change from a baseline value of 317 kg ha to a value of 550 kg ha which represents an approximately 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 175 percent increase These model simulations suggest that the positive effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations may be the dominant influence on future maize crop yield in Morocco Maize is a member of a group of plant species that have a relatively high optimum temperature range for photosynthesis lxxix which makes maize tolerant of high air temperatures and may explain why higher crop yields were projected for a hotter future climate Egypt where agriculture is not feasible without irrigation 99 8 percent of its cropland is irrigated depends on other countries for over 90 percent of its renewable water resources lxxx Almost all of Egypt 96 percent of its land is covered by desert and 97 percent of the population is concentrated on only 4 percent of irrigated land lxxxi In 2006 Egypt’s cultivated area was estimated at approximately 8 million acres or about 3 5 percent of the country’s total land area lxxxii Meanwhile 30 percent of Egypt’s labor force works in the agricultural sector contributing 14 8 percent of the nation’s GDP 2006 estimate lxxxiii Arable land in Egypt is restricted to the Nile valley from Aswan to Cairo and the Nile Delta north of Cairo lxxxiv The Nile Delta a region characterized by high production high irrigation and smallholder agriculture is also a region with severe urban water and land-use challenges and projections of high population increase see Natural Disasters discussion below lxxxv In recent years the country has undergone several major agricultural developments including expanding production of two of its major exporting crops as shown in Table 4 rice 40 percent of agricultural exports and cotton 20 percent However these crops are also two of the most hydro-intensive crops A changing climate together with the expansion of cultivated areas in Egypt given the country’s policy to add more agricultural lands implies additional stress on the country’s water resources and all the negative ramifications on agriculture and its economy Produce Unit Wheat Maize Rice Beans Cotton Sugar Cane Ardeb Ardeb Ton Ardeb Cantar Ton Productivity Feddan Acres 2001 02 2006 07 2006 07 Base year Targeted Achieved 18 8 19 5 20 0 20 8 19 25 19 98 24 75 25 69 27 5 28 5 25 5 26 5 3 9 4 0 4 2 4 4 4 2 4 4 8 6 8 9 10 5 10 9 9 2 9 5 7 2 7 5 8 0 8 3 7 6 7 9 50 0 51 9 51 5 53 5 51 4 53 3 Realized Percentage % 96 3 92 7 100 0 87 6 95 0 99 8 Table 4 “Development in Agricultural Productivity during the 5-year-plan 2002-2007 ” Source Egypt State Information Service Your Gateway to Egypt s v “Agriculture ” http www sis gov eg En Economy Sectors Agriculture 050301000000000001 htm accessed April 6 2009 In an early analysis of the effects of climate change on Egyptian agriculture El-Shaer et al 1997 lxxxvi used the GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory UKMO United Kingdom Meteorology Office and GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCMs under unspecified conditions of 2×CO2 in conjunction with CERES crop models to simulate changes in wheat and maize yields and growing season length Analysis focused on four important agricultural regions in Egypt the northern Nile Delta the Mid-Delta the northern Mediterranean coast and Upper southern Egypt The models projected a decrease in wheat yield of 10 to 50 percent for all regions except the northern coast where an increase of approximately 80 percent was predicted 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Wheat grows under natural precipitation in the northern coastal zone in contrast to the other regions where crops are irrigated and the increases in wheat yield simulated by the models for the northern coast were tied to increases in precipitation projected for the region The models also predicted a decrease in maize yields for all regions with the largest losses of approximately 60 percent in Upper Egypt These results for maize yields in Egypt are in contrast to those of Jones and Thorntonlxxxvii for Morocco which suggests that in Egypt the negative effects of future temperature increases may outweigh the positive effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentration increases The model results of El-Shaer et al 1997 lxxxviii also showed a decrease in growing season length in all regions for wheat and maize the largest decreases were approximately 20 to 25 days in the northern Delta and northern coastal regions for wheat and in the Mid-Delta and Upper Egypt regions for maize The authors found that simulation of adaptation strategies such as shifting planting dates and changing crop varieties made no significant impact on projected crop yields or season lengths In a follow-up study Yates and Strzepek 1998 lxxxix examined the potential effects of climate change on crop yields in the Nile Basin in 2060 using the GFDL UKMO and GISS GCMs Temperature and precipitation projections from the GCMs were used in conjunction with an unspecified crop model to estimate the changes in yield for wheat rice grains protein feed other food non-food and fruit yields in 2060 relative to 1990 All models indicated a decrease in crop yield with the largest losses up to 20 to 50 percent in yields of wheat and grains Climate change in the GCMs was represented by 2×CO2 equivalent to 600 to 640 ppm which is a high projection relative to current estimates xc Therefore these model results should be interpreted with caution The authors found that simulated adaptation measures including increased fertilizer application and development of new crop varieties substantially mitigated the projected decreases in crop yields expected in the mid-21st century which is in contrast to the earlier findings of El-Shaer et alxci for the same region Most recently Hegazy et al 2008 xcii investigated the influence of increased air temperatures associated with future climate change on the spatial and temporal distribution of four crops in Egypt through 2100 Analysis focused on cotton wheat rice and maize because they are some of the most economically important crops currently grown in Egypt Air temperature patterns in Egypt for 2025 2050 2075 and 2100 were simulated using a database of information compiled from multiple GCMs run under the B2 emissions scenario Subsequently these temperature projections were used to create seasonal and spatial crop distribution maps in a geographic information system GIS program Crop distribution simulations were based on the optimum air temperatures for maximum growth of cotton wheat rice and maize throughout the agricultural season which are 23 0°C 16 8°C 25 8°C and 26 0°C respectively Crop distributions were projected for three areas of the country Upper southern Middle and Lower northern Egypt Currently all four crops are grown in Lower Egypt wheat rice and maize are grown in Middle Egypt and only rice and maize are grown in Upper Egypt Results from the model study indicate that higher temperatures in Egypt associated with climate change in the 21st century will likely necessitate a shift in crop sowing dates to earlier in the season to prevent crop losses due to excessively warm growing conditions Compared to the reference sowing year of 2005 the model study predicts future sowing dates will shift one to eight weeks earlier depending on the crop type region and year The exception is rice sowing in Upper Egypt which is expected to shift one week later in 2025 and remain unchanged in 2050 and 2075 Wheat is the most heatsensitive of the four analyzed crops and the models estimate that by 2100 air temperatures will be high enough that growing wheat in Egypt will be impossible During the 21st century 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views increases in air temperature are also predicted to cause a decrease in the land area suitable for growing wheat from approximately 106 000 ha of land in Lower Egypt in 2005 to 6 500 ha in 2075 Cotton rice and maize are expected to be more tolerant of potential higher temperatures in Egypt and are not predicted to lose such a dramatic amount of viable growing area assuming appropriate adaption measures are taken such as shifting to earlier sowing times Using the MAGICC SCENGEN and GCMs climate change scenarios Eid et al 2007 xciii measured the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt by 2050 The study was based on the Ricardian approach which carries the advantage of accounting for a variety of adaptations e g adoption of new crops and farming systems that farmers apply in the face of a changing economy and environment xciv The study found that if no adaptation measures are taken temperature increases of 1 5°C as predicted by the MAGICC SCENGEN scenario and 3 6°C GCM scenario will considerably reduce the farm net revenue per hectare Accordingly the study predicts that by 2050 climate change could reduce agricultural yields of several Egyptian crops—from an 11 percent reduction in rice to 28 percent for soybeans when compared to production under current climate conditions However the same study suggests that reductions of farm net revenue could be less severe if farmers opt to use heavy machinery on farms and revenue could even increase if farmers use irrigation xcv Still the study only takes into account changes in net farm revenue due to temperature changes and does not consider the effects of warming on water resources Hence predicted increases in farm net revenue due to irrigation could be offset by the impacts of climate change on the country’s water resources Plans to increase agricultural productivity through intensive irrigation may not only imply further water scarcity but also soil salination and associated desertification Salination is a soil threat inland arising from a high evaporation rate under increasing temperature and reduced rainfall xcvi Salination also represents a water threat due to over abstraction by a growing population which can lead to sea water intrusion in coastal areas and the transformation of fresh groundwater into brackish water The use of fossil groundwater to irrigate agricultural land can lead to salination and is not a sustainable agricultural practice xcvii Soil salination already has been observed in several Mediterranean regions including parts of Spain Italy and Greece This trend however is particularly pronounced in countries south of the Mediterranean such as in large parts of Algeria Libya and Egypt and a few regions in Morocco and Tunisia For example in Tunisia water quality is often a concern as more than 30 percent of available water contains more than 3g per liter of salt xcviii In North Africa salination is widespread and at risk of increasing The impact on North African economy compared to the impact on the region’s European neighbors is greater Countries such as Morocco and Egypt have a considerably larger portion of their population employed in agriculture 44 percent and 28 percent respectively xcix In addition the contribution of agriculture to GDP in 2007 is also higher in North Africa—at 16 14 and 11 percent in Morocco Egypt and Tunisia compared to 3 and 2 percent in Spain and Italy respectively c 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Present Climate Change Coping Practices in Agriculture of Egyptian Farmers A survey conducted by Eid et al 2007 ci of 900 Egyptian households from 20 governorates revealed that Egyptian farmers have noticed a change in temperature and rainfall patterns—either from their own experience and or with the help from agricultural extension teams Overall 85 percent of the households noticed a change in temperature in the form of heat waves during the summer and an increase in winter minimum temperatures In addition 65 percent of the households cited shortages in the amount of rainfall each season In response to the observed changes in temperature many farmers adapted by increasing the frequency of irrigation increasing the quantity or avoiding irrigating in the afternoon when the temperature is at its highest Some farmers reported changing their crop sowing dates to evade expected high temperatures while others started using heat-tolerant varieties Other reported changes included increased management of pesticide and fertilizer applications planting trees as fences around the farm use of intercropping between crop plants of varying heights and fruit mulching for vegetables Regarding decreased rainfall farmers recognized the use of high-water-efficient varieties and or early maturing varieties as effective ways to cope with rainfall shortage while others mentioned underground or drainage water for irrigation and improved drainage as alternative methods for coping with observed changes in rainfall Additional anthropogenic disturbances such as deforestation overgrazing in rangelands nonsustainable irrigation practices and extractive farming practices which produce fertility reductions and depletion of carbon stored in the soil may be contributing to desertification in North Africa cii According to Zafer Adeel Director of the United Nations University’s UNU’s Canadian-based International Network on Water Environment and Health and co-chair of the team that developed a global assessment of desertification as part of the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment efforts in the past to forestall desertification have been consistently under-funded and policies in the region that promote agricultural intensification in dry areas and the settlement of nomadic populations are exacerbating soil salination ciii According to Arnell 2004 civ the IPCC SRES scenarios indicate that by 2050 average annual runoff in North Africa will decrease considerably effectively accelerating soil degradation in the region If the trend toward soil salination persists vegetation in the region will be compromised and desertification where land is completely lost for agricultural use is likely to expand Desertification would in turn imply increased emissions of carbon dioxide as vegetation is lost and other greenhouse gases reductions in agronomic productivity contamination of water resources and reductions in biodiversity cv Since the beginning of the 20th century Morocco has experienced droughts with a mean cyclic temporal frequency of 11 years cvi However the Moroccan Meteorological Office has observed a rise in the frequency intensity and duration of drought in the past three decades—an occurrence that is particularly pronounced in the spring In 2007 a drought caused a significant decline in Morocco’s grain crop production from 9 3 million tons in 2006 to 2 0 million tons in 2007 cvii According to the IPCC Chairman Rajendra 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Pachauri the rise in the frequency and persistence of droughts due to rising world temperatures will likely increase the dependence on large-scale and costly food imports of countries such as Morocco Tunisia is also experiencing persistent droughts Rain-fed agriculture represents 90 percent of the country’s agricultural area exposing this sector to climate variability cviii Of particular importance to Tunisia’s economy are cereals which are primarily 97 percent cultivated under rain-fed conditions In the late 1990s water reserves did not satisfy the water needs of both Tunisia and Morocco which resulted in several irrigation-dependent agricultural systems to cease production Migration Experts agree that the poorest countries will be the most affected by climate change cix In particular climate change poses a unique challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa which comprises the poorest countries in the world On one side much of Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing economic water scarcity a condition in which a country cannot afford to make use of its water resources cx On the other side desertification is shifting the desert’s limit further south in the Sahelian zone particularly in Burkina Faso and Mali as indicated by de Wit and Stankiewicz 2006 cxi As the effects of climate change further exacerbate these trends North Africa undoubtedly will experience greater migration from Sub-Saharan Africa in the next few decades However there is little literature that deals with climate as a motivating factor for migration and what references there are consider environment-migration relations at a very general level cxii Forced migration is a lingering problem in several countries of Africa predominantly in SubSaharan Africa Migrants residing in refugee camps or settlements for more than five years known as protracted refugees are common cxiii In general different estimates indicate that in any given year between 65 000 and 120 000 Sub-Saharan Africans enter into Morocco Tunisia Algeria Libya or Mauritania of which 70 to 80 percent are thought to migrate through Libya and 20 to 30 percent through Algeria and Morocco cxiv Specifically more than 100 000 SubSaharan Africans currently live in Algeria primarily Sahwari refugees 1-1 5 million SubSaharan immigrants settle in Libya and between 2 2 and 4 million in Egypt primarily Sudanese cxv In Tunisia and Morocco the number of Sub-Saharan communities is smaller but immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa into these two countries is also growing—on a magnitude of several tens of thousands of immigrants annually cxvi In addition North African countries are in a special position with respect to migration in that they are both migration destinations and transit areas for refugees from Sub-Saharan countries and Asia trying to reach Europe see http www migrationinformation org pdf cxvii In the context of North Africa as a transit region several tens of thousands of Sub-Saharan Africans attempt to cross the Mediterranean every year cxviii A growing number of Egyptians cross the Mediterranean to Italy by way of Libya In addition since Libya’s pan-African policies connecting East African migration systems with the Euro-Mediterranean migration system migrant workers and refugees from Sudan Somalia Eritrea and Ethiopia who used to settle in Cairo now increasingly migrate to Libya by way of Sudan Chad or Egypt There is also an increasing trend of Chinese Indian Pakistani and Bangladeshi migrants who are flying to Morocco using Saharan routes through Niger and Algeria Besides cross-border migration another issue exists in the increased urbanization of North African countries There are two aspects First North African countries experience vast internal 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views migration The most common scenario involves migration from rural areas to the city With an expected population increase of 50 million in North Africa including in this study the five countries covered here plus Sudan between 2025 and 2050 internal migration from rural areas to cities can be expected to increase in the first half of the 21st century cxix Predicted sea-level rise in the coasts and reduced precipitation in many rural agricultural parts of North Africa will likely cause an exodus from rural areas to cities Second migrants who consider North Africa as their final destination or those who fail to enter Europe sometimes remain in North Africa Presently North African cities such as Nouakchott Rabat Oran Algiers Tunis Tripoli Benghazi and Cairo are homes to large communities of Sub-Saharan migrants cxx There are two types of migration patterns identified by the IPCC assessment that may emerge as a result of climate change 1 “repetitive migrants ” representing ongoing adaptation to climate change and 2 “short-term shock migrants ” who respond to a particular climate event cxxi Migration due to climate change may have the following implications • Greater Demands on Infrastructure Along the Mediterranean Coasts cxxii • Violence Against Migrants Social unrest including attacks against migrants stemming from ethnic and racial clashes as well as human trafficking is already a reality for some North African countries cxxiii • Radical Fundamentalist Religious Movements Presently for example al-Qa’ida has bases in North Africa including Algeria and kidnappings of foreigners have occurred as recent as 2009 cxxiv The number of terrorist events perpetrated by radical fundamentalist groups may rise as a result of socio-economic factors related to climate change cxxv One of the few studies examining climate as a driving force for migration Meze-Hausken 2000 cxxvi investigated the empirical consequences of climate perturbations on human adaptation and migration in dryland Africa The study’s objective was to investigate whether experience from past drought behavior during the previous three decades served as an analogy for impacts under future climate change Vulnerability to climate events was assessed by analyzing migrants’ behavior and living conditions before and after the onset of past droughts specifically 104 subsistence farmers in mixed agricultural systems in Tigray Ethiopia were visited The farmers were former drought migrants living in arid regions with high interannual rainfall variability The results showed that although differentiation in farming yield is little during times of drought i e at first all farmers cultivate in a similar ecological setting with little irrigation and similar technology a combination of different socio-economic and environmental indicators such as animal holdings non-agricultural income and remittances determined how soon problems of shortage began after a drought It was found however that after a certain number of months among critical food- and water-deficiency the primary difference in vulnerability between households diminished After a threshold is surpassed farmers have no options to cope with the crisis leaving farmers equally affected despite their socio-economic point of departure many are forced to migrate Failures of the response mechanisms of households and the relief mechanism of the state were the main drivers behind migration 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Natural Disasters Along Coastal Zones According to Nicholls et al 1999 and Nicholls and Tol 2006 based on HadCM2 and HadCM3 models the southern Mediterranean Turkey-Algeria is one of the regions with the largest risk of increased flooding in absolute terms for the 21st century cxxvii The other regions of risk are West Africa includes Morocco East Africa South Asia and Southeast Asia Coastal cities will be especially vulnerable due to the concentration of poor populations in potentially hazardous areas such as Alexandria—the second largest city in Egypt cxxviii Specifically studies on the vulnerability of several sectors of Alexandria suggest that with a 30cm sea level rise by 2025 Alexandria will incur land and property losses of tens of billions of dollars more than half a million inhabitants may be displaced and 70 000 jobs will be lost cxxix Similarly examining global model predictions of sea level rise by 2050 for 84 developing countries a study by Dasgupta et al 2007 cxxx found that although sea level rise impacts on the land areas of the Middle East and North Africa MENA region are lower than the average of developing countries 0 25 percent vs 0 31 percent with a 1m sea level rise impacts on MENA are comparatively higher when measured in social economic and ecological terms Low-lying coastal areas in Tunisia Libya and particularly Egypt were identified as having the greatest risk in North Africa According to Dasgupta et al given a 1m sea level rise an estimated 10 percent of Egypt’s population would be impacted with most of the impact being felt in the Nile Delta cxxxi Thus the impact of sea level rise will have subsequent effects on Egypt’s agriculture and GDP Figures 15 To a lesser extent approximately 5 3 and 2 percent of the population of Tunisia Libya and Morocco will be impacted by a 1m sea level rise respectively cxxxii Based on Dasgupta et al’s 2007 study an assessment led by the World Bank 2007 cxxxiii estimated that for an increase in temperature of 1-3ºC between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North Africa’s urban areas However given the lack of tide gauge observational data in the region the wide range of future estimates in sea level and the paucity of regional climate model projections for the Mediterranean Sea a definitive estimate of sea level rise along the coastline of North Africa in the next 20 years is not possible Tourism Tourism development is a major priority for North African governments and the sector is expected to continue to increase in the next decade for most countries of the region Table 5 cxxxiv In Tunisia and Morocco coastal tourism is an important source of income as is reef ecotourism in Egypt cxxxv Most of the development however has been carried out without much regard for environmental protection sewage treatment water provision and energy inputs cxxxvi Particularly in light of the region’s water scarcity tourism development is of concern In Tunisia for example where “mass-beach” tourism is advertised tourist zones per person consume approximately 8-10 percent times per day the quantity of water of the rest of the country cxxxvii In Morocco tourism development has resulted in large stretches of its coastlines turning into concrete cxxxviii Declining water availability sea level rise and increasing temperatures could reduce not only the attractiveness but also the livability of these ecosystems 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 2009 Egypt Libya Tunisia Algeria Morocco 2019 % % 15 0 8 6 16 7 4 3 16 2 14 6 10 1 16 3 5 0 16 7 Table 5 Outlook of the contribution of the tourism sector to Gross Domestic Product in North Africa Source World Travel and Tourism Council s v v “Egypt ” “Libya ” “Tunisia ” “Algeria ” and “Morocco” http www wttc org eng Tourism_Research Tourism_Economic_Research Country_Reports accessed April 26 2009 Energy Because of their high natural gas and oil revenues Libya and Algeria’s economies and to a lesser extent that of Egypt’s are likely to be less impacted by climate change in the short term see Adaptive Capacity section for Libya Morocco’s dependence on agricultural production has slowed down its economic growth—a trend which may be exacerbated by climate change by the middle of the 21st century unless significant policy changes are made cxxxix For example in 2005 Morocco’s government spent more than twice the amount it had planned on food subsidies By contrast Tunisia has a more diversified economy Hence despite higher energy costs Tunisia’s economy has grown in recent years Algeria Egypt Libya and Nigeria are the largest natural gas producers in Africa and the largest African consumers of natural gas cxl The latter can be explained by the limited infrastructure there is on the continent for intraregional trade of natural gas According to the Energy Information Administration EIA ’s International Energy Outlook 2008 from 2005 to 2030 natural gas consumption will grow by 3 5 percent in Africa Libya has the largest proven reserves in Africa 41 5 billion barrels in 2007 followed by Nigeria 36 2 and Algeria 12 3 —all three are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC cxli Libya’s economic growth is contingent on the hydrocarbon industry both because of the revenues from exports and because the country relies on oil and natural gas to satisfy national demand The World Bank estimates that in 2004 Libya’s hydrocarbon exports contributed over 95 percent of total merchandise exports and revenues from the oil and natural gas sectors cxlii In addition revenues from these sectors equated to more than half of the country’s GDP Similarly in Algeria oil and natural gas exports which represented 98 percent of all exports in 2006 are the main driving force behind the country’s significant economic growth in recent years cxliii In 2006 Algeria’s real GDP growth rate was 4 percent Producing 2 8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2004 Algeria ranks as the eighth largest natural gas producer in the world and the second largest producer among OPEC member countries after Iran Like Libya Algeria depends on fossil fuels to satisfy domestic demand In 2004 natural gas comprised 62 percent of total energy consumption The rest was exported primarily to Europe although some was exported to the United States 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In the 1990s Brauchcxliv predicted that Libya and Algeria’s fossil reserves would be depleted considerably in the 21st century in particular their oil reserves were estimated to be exhausted by 2014 and 2037 respectively According to Wood Mackenzie reports cxlv however Libya remains highly unexplored and only 25 percent of the country is covered by exploration agreements with oil companies In addition since the 1990s Libya’s natural gas production has augmented considerably over the past few years 39 billion cubic feet in 2005 The country plans to free up more oil for export particularly to Europe cxlvi Although Algeria has produced oil since 1965 it too is considered to be underexplored cxlvii However Algeria and Libya’s economies are highly dependent on Europe For example in 2006 the vast majority of Libyan oil exports were sold to European countries such as Italy 495 000 barrels day Germany 253 000 Spain 113 000 and France 87 000 cxlviii The United States too has increased its oil imports from Libya since lifting sanctions against Libya in 2004 In 2006 the United States imported an average of 85 500 barrels day of total Libyan exports compared to 56 000 barrels day in 2005 Research by Hans Günter Brauch indicates industrialized countries need to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent by 2050 in order to limit climate change cxlix This might imply a shift in Europe’s energy demand and a shift from fossil fuels to non-fossil energy sources Accordingly it will become critical that North African countries develop their comparative advantage in high solar energy or other industries for possible export in the future As of yet however there has not been any indication that Europe will considerably reduce its natural gas and oil imports from North Africa In terms of emissions from North Africa the 2007 Observatoir Méditerranean de l’Energie OME trend scenario based on estimates provided by Mediterranean countries and their major energy companies reveal that primary energy demand in the Mediterranean Basin will be 1 5 times higher in 2025 than in 2006 cl Emissions from energy use in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries in 2004 were estimated at 663 million metric tons of CO2—an increase of 58 percent from 1990 This growth rate surpasses the global rate by 20 points Throughout the Mediterranean emissions from electricity and heating emit more CO2 emissions from energy use than any other sector e g transportation construction and other fuel combustion especially in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries The 21 Mediterranean countries studied by OME only contributed 7 4 percent of total global emissions of CO2 related to energy use between 1850 and 2005 Yet OME predicts that if investment and development decisions made on energy over the past 30 years remain the same and in light of the demographic and economic trends of southern and eastern Mediterranean countries an appreciable high growth in emissions could be expected south of the Mediterranean Adaptive Capacity The impacts of climate change will be felt differentially depending upon how well a society can cope with or adapt to climate change that is its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCC as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences ”cli Although the specific determinants or “drivers” of adaptive capacity are debated among researchers there is good agreement that economic human and environmental resources are essential elements Some components of this adaptive capacity are near term such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by e g flooding or droughts Other 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views components include a high enough level of education to enable workers to change the means of earning their livelihoods sufficient unmanaged land that can be brought into food production and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change For instance Yohe and Tolclii identified eight qualitative “determinants of adaptive capacity ” many of which are societal in character although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing 1 The range of available technological options for adaptation 2 The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3 The structure of critical institutions the derivative allocation of decisionmaking authority and the decision criteria that would be employed 4 The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5 The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6 The system’s access to risk-spreading processes 7 The ability of decisionmakers to manage information the processes by which these decisionmakers determine which information is credible and the credibility of the decisionmakers themselves 8 The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations North African Adaptive Capacity in a Global Context Researchers have only recently taken on the challenge of assessing adaptive capacity in a comparative quantitative framework A comprehensive global comparative studycliii of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM—see box below Adaptive capacity as assessed in this study consists of seven variables in three sectors chosen to represent societal characteristics important to a country’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change Human and Civic Resources • Dependency Ratio proxy for social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting basic needs • Literacy proxy for human capital generally especially the ability to adapt by changing employment Economic Capacity • GDP market Per Capita proxy for economic well-being in general especially access to markets technology and other resources useful for adaptation • Income Equity proxy for the potential of all people in a country or state to participate in the economic benefits available 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Environmental Capacity • Percent of Land that is Unmanaged proxy for potential for economic use or increased crop productivity and for ecosystem health e g ability of plants and animals to migrate under climate change • Sulfur Dioxide Per Unit Land Area proxy for air quality and through sulfur deposition other stresses on ecosystems • Population Density proxy for population pressures on ecosystems e g adequate food production for a given population Methodological Description of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The resilience index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be negatively affected by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is made up of one to three proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birth rate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk from sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is composed of the geometric means of lower level values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of the adaptive capacity and sensitivity Adaptive capacity for a sample of 10 countries from the 160-country study is shown in Figure 7 base year of 2000 There is a wide range of adaptive capacity represented by these countries Libya ranks high and Morocco ranks low both in the sample and overall • Russia ranks 32nd and Libya 34th in the highest quartile • Indonesia ranks 45th Belize 48th Mexico 59th and China 75th in the second quartile • The Philippines ranks 91st and India 119th in the third quartile • Morocco ranks 136th and Haiti 156th in the lowest quartile Any country-level analysis must take into account the comparative ranking of the country 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Ranking of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India Morocco Haiti 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 7 Sample of 10 countries’ rankings of adaptive capacity 2000 Figure 8 shows the contribution of each variable to the overall ranking slight differences occurring because of the methodology see box In current adaptive capacity Libya ranks second and Morocco second-to-last among the 10 countries shown in Figure 7 Although Libya has a comparatively unfavorable dependency ratio it shows comparatively high adaptive capacity in all the environment-related variables Morocco on the other hand ranks poorly on almost all adaptive capacity variables with the exceptions of emissions and population density 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya GDP per capita equity index Indonesia Belize dependency ratio literacy levels non-managed land % emssions total land Mexico China Philippines India population density Morocco Haiti 0 200 400 600 Figure 8 Variables’ contributions to adaptive capacity rankings Figure 9 shows projected adaptive capacity growth over time for the 10-country sample Projections are made for two scenarios rates of growth are based on the IPCC’s A1 scenario in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios cliv VRIM simulates two different hypothetical development tracks out to the year 2065 well beyond the timescale of the present study with intermediate results at 15-year time steps These alternative development tracks are not intended to be predictive they are scenarios Both scenarios feature moderate population growth and a tendency toward convergence in affluence with market-based solutions rapid technological progress and improving human welfare The scenarios used in this study differ in the rate of economic growth one modeling high-and-fast economic growth the other delayed growth Over time a low-growth scenario widens the gap among the 10 countries—and the high-growth scenario widens the gap even more Libya’s adaptive capacity over time is almost static in the delayed-growth scenario and increases only slowly in the high-growth scenario In both scenarios China and Indonesia outstrip Libya by 2035 Morocco holds its second-to-last place among the ten countries in the sample but the gap between India and Morocco grows as India is projected to build adaptive capacity at a faster rate Figure 10 shows the three categories of adaptive capacity and their contributions to individual countries rankings in North Africa All countries have relatively low economic capacity and relatively higher environmental capacity Libya ranks highest in all three aspects among the five countries 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity in the Delayed Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Adaptive Capacity in the High-Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Figure 9 Projections of adaptive capacity for 10 countries 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views By 2050 Figure 11 large differences appear between scenarios although the relative rankings of the five countries remain the same Libya makes large gains and the other countries modest gains in adaptive capacity under the high-growth scenario but all five countries actually lose adaptive capacity by 2050 under the delayed growth scenario Thus assumptions about how conditions unfold in the world and in the region determine rates of dis improvement in North Africa’s adaptive capacity Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in the Base Year Libya Algeria economic capacity Tunisia human rescources environmental capacity Egypt-Arab-Rep Morocco 0 50 100 150 200 250 Figure 10 Base year 2000 adaptive capacity of North African countries Aspects of Adaptive Capacity by 2050 in the High-Growth Scenario Libya Algeria economic capacity human rescources Tunisia environmental capacity Egypt-Arab-Rep Morocco 0 50 100 150 200 250 Aspects of Adaptive Capacity by 2050 in the Delayed Growth Scenario Libya Algeria economic capacity Tunisia human rescources environmental capacity Egypt-Arab-Rep Morocco 0 50 100 150 200 250 Figure 11 Snapshots of North African adaptive capacity in 2050 under two scenarios 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Conclusions High-Risk Impacts The sectors in North Africa that are most vulnerable to predicted climate change are the water sector the agricultural sector and the coastal zone Other less studied factors but clearly existing ones such as migration may exacerbate conditions in North Africa in the 21st century • Water Resource Stress Water scarcity even in the absence of climate change will be one of the most critical problems facing North African countries in the next few decades It is estimated that Morocco and Algeria’s water resources will be reduced by 10-15 percent by 2020 Tunisia’s water resources will decline by 28 percent by 2030 and 74 8 percent of Egyptians will have less than adequate fresh water by the same year Conflicts over water as have been observed in the past are likely to surface between African countries In addition low-efficiency surface irrigation practices may produce higher water losses decreases in land productivity and increased salination • Agriculture Reduced annual rainfall and increased persistence and frequency of droughts related to climate change may have negative consequences on the region Morocco and Tunisia’s agricultural sector has already been largely impacted by increasingly frequent droughts Egypt where agriculture is impossible without irrigation is at risk of being largely impacted However model results are inconsistent regarding future changes in crop yields and agricultural growing seasons in North Africa One modeling study suggests that future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase maize yields in Morocco Nevertheless as the price of water becomes apparent North African countries will likely rely more on food imports • Migration Increased migration from Sub-Saharan Africa and increased internal migration to urban areas will place further pressures on water resources food availability infrastructure and the ecosystem • Natural Disasters North Africa is one of the regions with the largest predicted impacts from flooding given its close proximity to the Mediterranean Sea and the highly concentrated and poor populations along the coasts 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models Below is an excerpt from IPCC 2007 Chapter 11 Regional models see IPCC 2007 for references 8 11 2 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present and Past Climates There are biases in the simulations of African climate that are systematic across the multi-model dataset MMD models with 90% of models overestimating precipitation in southern Africa by more than 20% on average and in some cases by as much as 80% over a wide area often extending into equatorial Africa The temperature biases over land are not considered large enough to directly affect the credibility of the model projections The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ITCZ in the Atlantic is displaced equatorward in nearly all of these AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model simulations Ocean temperatures are too warm by an average of 1°C to 2°C in the Gulf of Guinea and typically by 3°C off the southwest coast in the region of intense upwelling which is clearly too weak in many models In several of the models there is no West African monsoon as the summer rains fail to move from the Gulf onto land but most of the models do have a monsoonal climate albeit with some distortion Moderately realistic interannual variability of sea surface temperatures SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea and the associated dipolar rainfall variations in the Sahel and the Guinean Coast are by the criteria of Cook and Vizy 2006 only present in 4 of the 18 models examined Tennant 2003 describes biases in several AGCMs Atmospheric General Circulation Models such as the equatorward displacement of the mid-latitude jet in austral summer a deficiency that persists in the most recent simulations Despite these deficiencies AGCMs can simulate the basic pattern of rainfall trends in the second half of the 20th century if given the observed SST evolution as boundary conditions as described in the multi-model analysis of Hoerling et al 2006 and the growing literature on the interannual variability and trends in individual models e g Rowell et al 1995 Bader and Latif 2003 Giannini et al 2003 Haarsma et al 2005 Kamga et al 2005 Lu and Delworth 2005 However there is less confidence in the ability of AOGCMs to generate interannual variability in the SSTs of the type known to affect African rainfall as evidenced by the fact that very few AOGCMs produce droughts comparable in magnitude to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s Hoerling et al 2006 There are exceptions but what distinguishes these from the bulk of the models is not understood The very wet Sahara 6 to 8 ka is thought to have been a response to the increased summer insolation due to changes in the Earth’s orbital configuration Modelling studies of this response provide background information on the quality of a model’s African monsoon but the processes controlling the response to changing seasonal insolation may be different from those controlling the response to increasing greenhouse gases The fact that GCMs have difficulty in simulating the full magnitude of the mid-Holocene wet period especially in the absence of vegetation feedbacks may indicate a lack of sensitivity to other kinds of forcing Jolly et al 1996 Kutzbach et al 1996 8 Some references in this section have been changed to be internally consistent with this document and other references have been removed to avoid confusion 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Regional climate modelling has mostly focused on southern Africa where the models generally improve on the climate simulated by global models but also share some of the biases in the global models For example Engelbrecht et al 2002 and Arnell et al 2003 both simulate excessive rainfall in parts of southern Africa reminiscent of the bias in the MMD Hewitson et al 2004 and Tadross et al 2006 note strong sensitivity to the choice of convective parametrization and to changes in soil moisture and vegetative cover New et al 2003 Tadross et al 2005a reinforcing the view Rowell et al 1995 that land surface feedbacks enhance regional climate sensitivity over Africa’s semi-arid regions Over West Africa the number of Regional Climate Model RCM investigations is even more limited Jenkins et al 2002 Vizy and Cook 2002 The quality of the 25-year simulation undertaken by Paeth et al 2005 is encouraging emphasizing the role of regional SSTs and changes in the land surface in forcing West African rainfall anomalies Several recent AGCM time-slice simulations focusing on tropical Africa show good simulation of the rainy season Coppola and Giorgi 2005 Caminade et al 2006 Oouchi et al 2006 Hewitson and Crane 2005 developed empirical downscaling for point-scale precipitation at sites spanning the continent as well as a 0 1° resolution grid over South Africa The downscaled precipitation forced by reanalysis data provides a close match to the historical climate record including regions such as the eastern escarpment of the sub-continent that have proven difficult for RCMs 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on North Africa and North Africa’s Adaptive Strategies To increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of North Africa’s projected climate changes and their impacts as well as the region’s adaptive capacity the following gaps would need to be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes Uncertainties in changing precipitation dust storms and desertification leave important gaps in knowledge needed for climate projections One gap of particular interest is the lack of medium-term 20 to 30 year projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected These gaps are particularly acute for North Africa where regional models are poor and relatively few impacts studies have been conducted • In social science research scientists and analysts have only a partial understanding of the important factors in vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity—much less their interactions and evolution Again research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decisionmaking abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important factors are unaccounted for in research scientists know what some of them are but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain Modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal and the only factor modeled was deforestation This assumption of course made the models inadequate for their purposes In another example ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests e g the pine bark beetle • Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about motivation intent and behavior is a serious shortcoming Overall research about climate change impacts on North Africa has been undertaken piecemeal discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications separately considered from physical effects This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energyeconomic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views ____________________ i According to the Encyclopedia of Nations the high unemployment rate also estimated for 2000 is linked with the country’s years of sanctions which have affected Libya’s oil and gas exports in addition to Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi’s efforts at preventing the emergence of the growing private sector Source Encyclopedia of the Nations s v “Libya Working Conditions ” http www nationsencyclopedia com economies Africa Libya-WORKINGCONDITIONS html accessed May 28 2009 ii Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications the-worldfactbook index html accessed May 15 2009 iii Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed May 15 2009 iv Weather Online Wind of the World Sorocco http www weatheronline co uk reports wind The-Sirocco htm accessed May 15 2009 v Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm vi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm vii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC The IPCC Data Distribution Centre HadCM2 GCM Model Information http www ipcc-data org is92 hadcm2_info html accessed April 1 2009 viii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC The IPCC Data Distribution Centre HadCM2 GCM Model Information http www ipcc-data org is92 hadcm2_info html accessed April 1 2009 ix M Hulme R Doherty T Ngara M New and D Lister African Climate Change 1900-2100 Climate Research 17 no 2 2001 145-68 x M Hulme R Doherty T Ngara M New and D Lister African Climate Change 1900-2100 Climate Research 17 no 2 2001 145-68 H Paeth and H P Thamm Regional Modelling of Future African Climate North of 15 °S Including Greenhouse Warming and Land Degradation Climatic Change 83 no 3 2007 401-27 and H Paeth K Born R Girmes R Podzun and D Jacob Regional Climate Change in Tropical and Northern Africa Due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land Use Changes Journal of Climate 22 no 1 2009 114-32 xi H Paeth K Born R Girmes R Podzun and D Jacob Regional Climate Change in Tropical and Northern Africa Due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land Use Changes Journal of Climate 22 no 1 2009 114-32 xii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xiii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xiv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xvi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xvii M Hulme R Doherty T Ngara M New and D Lister African Climate Change 1900-2100 Climate Research 17 no 2 2001 145-68 xviii A L Gibelin and M Déqué Anthropogenic Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region Simulated by a Global Variable Resolution Model Climate Dynamics 20 no 4 2003 327-39 xix F Giorgi Climate Change Hot-Spots Geophysical Research Letters 33 no 8 2006 xx H Paeth K Born R Girmes R Podzun and D Jacob Regional Climate Change in Tropical and Northern Africa Due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land Use Changes Journal of Climate 22 no 1 2009 114-32 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxi A Chaponniere and V Smakhtin A Review of Climate Change Scenarios and Preliminary Rainfall Trend Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia Basin Morocco Colombo Sri Lanka IWMI working paper 110 Drought series paper 8 p 16 and Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire de l’Urbanisme de l’Habitat et de l’Environnement Communication Nationale Initiale À La Convention Cadre Des Nations Unies Sur Les Changements Climatiques First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kingdom of Morocco October 2001 http unfccc int resource docs natc mornc1e pdf xxii M N Tsimplis and N E Spencer “Collection and analysis of monthly mean sea level data in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea ” Journal of Coastal Research 13 no 2 1997 534–544 xxiii J A Church N J White R Coleman K Lambeck and J X Mitrovica “Estimates of regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period ” Journal of Climate 17 2004 2609–2625 xxiv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxvi S Somot F Sevault M Deque and M Crepon 21st Century Climate Change Scenario for the Mediterranean Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model Global and Planetary Change 63 no 2-3 2008 112-26 xxvii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxviii Michael N Tsimplis Marta Marcos Samuel Somot “21st century Mediterranean sea level rise Steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model ” Global and Planetary Change 63 2008 105-111 xxix Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxx M Snoussi T Ouchani and S Niazi Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Flooding on the Moroccan Coast The Case of the Mediterranean Eastern Zone Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 77 no 2 2008 206-13 xxxi R A Warrick C Le Provost M F Meier J Oerlemans P L Woodworth “Changes in sea level ” The Science of Climate Change eds Houghton J T Meira Filho L G Callander B A Harris N Kattenberg A Maskell K Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1996 xxxii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxxiii Ministère De L’Environnement et de L'Amenagement du Territoir Ministry of Environment and Land Planning Communication Initiale De La Tunisie À La Convention Cadre Des Nations Unies Sur Les Changements Climatiques Initial Communication of Tunisia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Republic of Tunisia 2001 http unfccc int resource docs natc tunnc1esum pdf xxxiv A Agoumi Vulnerability of North African Countries to Climatic Changes Adaptation and Implementation Strategies for Climate Change Climate Change Knowledge Network 2003 http www cckn net compendium north_africa asp xxxv A Agoumi Vulnerability of North African Countries to Climatic Changes Adaptation and Implementation Strategies for Climate Change Climate Change Knowledge Network 2003 http www cckn net compendium north_africa asp xxxvi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxxvii Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire de l’Urbanisme de l’Habitat et de l’Environnement Communication Nationale Initiale À La Convention Cadre Des Nations Unies Sur Les Changements Climatiques First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kingdom of Morocco October 2001 http unfccc int resource docs natc mornc1e pdf xxxviii R J Nicholls Coastal Flooding and Wetland Loss in the 21st Century Changes under the SRES Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 14 no 1 2004 69-86 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxxix M Snoussi T Ouchani and S Niazi Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Flooding on the Moroccan Coast The Case of the Mediterranean Eastern Zone Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 77 no 2 2008 206-13 xl Abigail Somma “Squeezing the Most out of Scarce Water Resources ”IFPRI Forum I 2009 10 xli FAOSTAT s v “Land use 2005 ” http faostat fao org xlii Josephine Khaoma W Ngaira “Impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa by 2030 ” Scientific Research and Essays 2 no 7 July 2007 238-243 and M Kassas “Agriculture in North Africa Sociocultural Aspects ” Journal of Agricultural Ethics 2 1989 183-190 xliii Encyclopedia of the Nation http www nationsencyclopedia com accessed June 9 2009 xliv P J Ashton “Avoiding conflicts over Africa’s water resources ” Ambio 31 2002 236 xlv L Gueye et al 2005 reported in M Boko I Niang A Nyong and C Vogel “Africa ” in IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlvi IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlvii FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations “Ministerial Conference on Water for Agriculture and Energy in Africa The Challenges of Climate Change” conference Irrigation Projections for 20302050 Sirte Libyan Arab Jamahiriya December 15-17 2008 xlviii R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and Seeheim-Jugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 xlix FAONewsroom of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization “Agriculture in the Near East likely to suffer from climate change The hungry and poor will be most affected – FAO meeting debates impact on the region ” March 3 2008 http www fao org newsroom en news 2008 1000800 index html l Climate Change and its Impact on Health in Morocco Amman Jordan Presentation to the “Regional Workshop on Adaptation Strategies to Protect Health under Climate Change Variability and Change in Water Stressed Countries in EMR ” December 11-14 2006 slides www emro who int Ceha media powerpoint morocco%20CP pps accessed March 26 2009 li IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 lii IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 liii Climate Protection Programme GTZ “Development of a Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Tunisian Agricultural Sector ” Factsheet 2007 http www gtz de de dokumente gtz-en-anpassung-klimawandeltunesien pdf accessed March 26 2009 liv D Moran “Climate Change and Regional Security” workshop Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School sponsored by Long Range Assessment Unit of the National Intelligence Council Monterey California December 11-13 2007 lv Irna van der Molen and Antoinette Hildering “Water Cause for conflict or co-operation ” Journal on Science and World Affairs 1 no 2 2005 133-143 lvi Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lvii Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lviii Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency “The Arab Republic of Egypt Initial National Communication on Climate Change ” Prepared for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC June 1999 http unfccc int resource docs natc egync1 pdf lix Alan Richards and John Waterbury A Political Economy of the Middle East 3rd ed Boulder CO Westview Press 2007 174-175 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lx Alan Richards and John Waterbury A Political Economy of the Middle East 3rd ed Boulder CO Westview Press 2007 174-175 and Ronald Bleier “Will Nile Water Go to Israel North Sinai Pipelines and the Politics of Scarcity ” Middle East Policy V no 3 September 1997 113-124 lxi Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lxii Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lxiii Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lxiv http unfccc int resource docs natc egync1 pdf lxv IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 lxvi Julia Bucknall Making the most of Scarcity Accountability for the Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa Washington D C World Bank 2007 and World Bank “Coping with Scarce Water in the Middle East and North Africa” http go worldbank org 4F8D9IG4N0 accessed June 2 2009 lxvii Julia Bucknall Making the most of Scarcity Accountability for the Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa Washington D C World Bank 2007 lxviii Dennis Wichelns “The role of ‘virtual water’ in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals with an example from Egypt ” Agricultural Water Management 49 2001 131-151 lxix Ayman F Abou-Hadid “Assessment of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa Food Production and Water Resources” Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate CLAC at the Agricultural Research Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation Egypt The International START Secretariat Washington DC 2006 lxx FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations “Ministerial Conference on Water for Agriculture and Energy in Africa The Challenges of Climate Change” conference Irrigation Projections for 20302050 Sirte Libyan Arab Jamahiriya December 15-17 2008 lxxi Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lxxii Lasse Ringius Thomas E Downing Mike Hulme Dominic Waughray Rolf Selrod “Climate Change in Africa - Issues and Challenges in Agriculture and Water for Sustainable Development ” ISSN 0804-4562 Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo CICERO Oslo University of Oslo November 1996 lxxiii D N Yates and K M Strzepek An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Economy of Egypt Climatic Change 38 no 3 1998 261-87 lxxiv German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Climate Change as a Security Risk eds R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R Grieβhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf and J Schmid London Earthscan 2008 lxxv FAONewsroom Agriculture in the Near East likely to suffer from climate change The hungry and poor will be most affected – FAO meeting debates impact on the region March 3 2008 Rome Cairo http www fao org newsroom en news 2008 1000800 index html lxxvi D Moran “Climate Change and Regional Security” workshop Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School sponsored by Long Range Assessment Unit of the National Intelligence Council Monterey California December 11-13 2007 lxxvii Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire de l’Urbanisme de l’Habitat et de l’Environnement Communication Nationale Initiale À La Convention Cadre Des Nations Unies Sur Les Changements Climatiques First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kingdom of Morocco October 2001 http unfccc int resource docs natc mornc1e pdf lxxviii P G Jones and P K Thornton The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in Africa and Latin America in 2055 Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 13 no 1 2003 51-59 lxxix Steven J Crafts-Brandner and Michael E Salvucci “Sensitivity of Photosynthesis in a C4 Plant Maize to Heat Stress ” Plant Physiology 129 2002 1773–1780 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxxx Helmy M Eid Samia M El-Marsafawy and Samiha A Ouda “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt A Ricardian Approach” Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group of The World Bank July 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org external default WDSContentServer IW3P IB 2007 07 31 000158349_20070731143402 Render ed PDF wps4293 pdf accessed April 6 2009 and Ragab Ragab and Christel Prudhomme “Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions prospective and challenges for the 21st century ” Biosyst Eng 81 2002 3–34 doi 10 1006 bioe 2001 0013 lxxxi Josephine Khaoma W Ngaira “Impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa by 2030 ” Scientific Research and Essays 2 no 7 July 2007 238-243 lxxxii Egypt State Information Service Your Gateway to Egypt s v “Agriculture ” http www sis gov eg En Economy Sectors Agriculture 050301000000000001 htm accessed April 6 2009 lxxxiii Egypt State Information Service Your Gateway to Egypt s v “Agriculture ” http www sis gov eg En Economy Sectors Agriculture 050301000000000001 htm accessed April 6 2009 lxxxiv Ayman F Abou-Hadid “Assessment of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa Food Production and Water Resources” A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change AIACC Project No AF 90 Washington D C International START Secretariat 2006 lxxxv Ayman F Abou-Hadid “Assessment of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa Food Production and Water Resources” A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change AIACC Project No AF 90 Washington D C International START Secretariat 2006 lxxxvi H M El-Shaer C Rosenzweig A Iglesias M H Eid and D Hillel Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1 1997 233-50 lxxxvii P G Jones and P K Thornton The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in Africa and Latin America in 2055 Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 13 no 1 2003 51-59 lxxxviii H M El-Shaer C Rosenzweig A Iglesias M H Eid and D Hillel Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1 1997 233-50 lxxxix D N Yates and K M Strzepek An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Economy of Egypt Climatic Change 38 no 3 1998 261-87 xc Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xci H M El-Shaer C Rosenzweig A Iglesias M H Eid and D Hillel Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1 1997 233-50 xcii A K Hegazy M A Medany H F Kabiel and M M Maez Spatial and Temporal Projected Distribution of Four Crop Plants in Egypt Natural Resources Forum 32 no 4 2008 316-26 xciii Helmy M Eid Samia M El-Marsafawy and Samiha A Ouda “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt A Ricardian Approach” Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group of The World Bank July 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org external default WDSContentServer IW3P IB 2007 07 31 000158349_20070731143402 Render ed PDF wps4293 pdf accessed April 6 2009 xciv The Ricardian approach is based on the following hypothesis 1 Climate shifts the production function for crops 2 There is perfect competition in both product and input prices 3 The land values have attained the longrun equilibrium associated with each region climate 4 Market prices are unchanged as a result of change in environmental conditions 5 Adaptation takes place by all means including the adoption of new crops or farming systems and 6 The adaptation cost is not considered in the analysis Source Helmy M Eid Samia M ElMarsafawy and Samiha A Ouda “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt A Ricardian Approach” Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group of The World Bank July 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org external default WDSContentServer IW3P IB 2007 07 31 000158349_20070731143402 Render ed PDF wps4293 pdf accessed April 6 2009 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xcv Helmy M Eid Samia M El-Marsafawy and Samiha A Ouda “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt A Ricardian Approach” Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group of The World Bank July 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org external default WDSContentServer IW3P IB 2007 07 31 000158349_20070731143402 Render ed PDF wps4293 pdf accessed April 6 2009 xcvi Ragab Ragab e-mail message to author May 27 2009 xcvii R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and Seeheim-Jugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 xcviii Ayman F Abou-Hadid “Assessment of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa Food Production and Water Resources” A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change AIACC Project No AF 90 Washington D C International START Secretariat 2006 xcix R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and Seeheim-Jugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 c World Bank World Development Indicators Online accessed April 15 2009 ci Helmy M Eid Samia M El-Marsafawy and Samiha A Ouda “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt A Ricardian Approach” Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group of The World Bank July 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org external default WDSContentServer IW3P IB 2007 07 31 000158349_20070731143402 Render ed PDF wps4293 pdf accessed April 6 2009 cii World Bank “The World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region MENA Sustainable Development Sector Department MNSSD Regional Business Strategy to Address Climate Change” Preliminary draft for consultation and feedback World Bank Washington DC November 2007 http siteresources worldbank org INTCLIMATECHANGE Resources MENA_CC_Business_Strategy_Nov_2007_ Revised pdf accessed April 15 2009 and R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and Seeheim-Jugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 ciii UNU-INWEH United Nations University’s Canadian-based International Network on Water Environment and Health “Experts Advice World Policies to Cope with Causes Rising Consequences of Creeping Desertification If Unaddressed Experts Warn Waves of Environmental Refugees may Follow Effective Responses to Desertification will also Mitigate Climate Change” Joint International Conference Algiers December 14 2006 http www inweh unu edu inweh drylands Algiers_news_release-Final pdf accessed April 15 2009 civ Nigel W Arnell “Climate change and global water resources SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios ” Global Environmental Change 14 2004 31–52 cv World Bank “The World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region MENA Sustainable Development Sector Department MNSSD Regional Business Strategy to Address Climate Change” Preliminary draft for consultation and feedback World Bank Washington DC November 2007 http siteresources worldbank org INTCLIMATECHANGE Resources MENA_CC_Business_Strategy_Nov_2007_ Revised pdf accessed April 15 2009 cvi M Benassi “Drought and climate change in Morocco Analysis of precipitation field and water supply ” Options Méditerranéennes Series A no 80 2008 in Drought management scientific and technological innovations ed A Lopez-Francos 83-86 Zaragoza Spain CIHEAM-IAMZ 2008 cvii Tom Pfeiffer “Climate Change Threatens North Africa Food Supply ” Reuters June 27 2007 http www planetark com dailynewsstory cfm newsid 42814 story htm accessed May 7 2009 cviii Ayman F Abou-Hadid “Assessment of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa Food Production and Water Resources” A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change AIACC Project No AF 90 Washington D C International START Secretariat 2006 cix FAONewsroom Agriculture in the Near East likely to suffer from climate change The hungry and poor will be most affected – FAO meeting debates impact on the region March 3 2008 Rome Cairo http www fao org newsroom en news 2008 1000800 index html cx Abigail Somma “Squeezing the Most out of Scarce Water Resources ”IFPRI Forum I 2009 51 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cxi Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz “Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change ” Science 311 no 5769 2006 1917-1921 cxii Elisabeth Meze-Hausken “Migration Caused By Climate Change How Vulnerable Are People in Dryland Areas ” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5 2000 379-406 cxiii FMO Forced Migration Online “Africa ” http www forcedmigration org browse regional africa htm accessed April 27 2009 cxiv Hein de Haas “Trans-Saharan Migration to North Africa and the EU Historical Roots and Current Trends ” Migration Information Source November 2006 http www migrationinformation org feature display cfm ID 484 accessed April 27 2009 cxv FMO Forced Migration Online “Africa ” http www forcedmigration org browse regional africa htm accessed April 27 2009 and Hein de Haas “Trans-Saharan Migration to North Africa and the EU Historical Roots and Current Trends ” Migration Information Source November 2006 http www migrationinformation org feature display cfm ID 484 accessed April 27 2009 cxvi Hein de Haas “Trans-Saharan Migration to North Africa and the EU Historical Roots and Current Trends ” Migration Information Source November 2006 http www migrationinformation org feature display cfm ID 484 accessed April 27 2009 cxvii R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and Seeheim-Jugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 cxviii Hein de Haas “Trans-Saharan Migration to North Africa and the EU Historical Roots and Current Trends ” Migration Information Source November 2006 http www migrationinformation org feature display cfm ID 484 accessed April 27 2009 cxix United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs cited in R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R GrieBhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf J Schmid Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU trans Christopher Hay and SeeheimJugenheim London and Sterling VA Earthscan 2008 cxx Hein de Haas “Trans-Saharan Migration to North Africa and the EU Historical Roots and Current Trends ” Migration Information Source November 2006 http www migrationinformation org feature display cfm ID 484 accessed April 27 2009 cxxi IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 435 cxxii IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 435 cxxiii German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Climate Change as a Security Risk eds R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R Grieβhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf and J Schmid London Earthscan 2008 cxxiv BBC “Africa militants make UK threat ” BBC April 27 2009 http news bbc co uk 2 hi africa 8020504 stm accessed April 30 2009 cxxv German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Climate Change as a Security Risk eds R Schubert H J Schellnhuber N Buchmann A Epiney R Grieβhammer M Kulessa D Messner S Rahmstorf and J Schmid London Earthscan 2008 cxxvi Elisabeth Meze-Hausken “Migration Caused By Climate Change How Vulnerable Are People in Dryland Areas ” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5 2000 379-406 cxxvii Robert J Nicholls Frank M J Hoozemans and Marcel Marchand “Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise regional and global analyses” Global Environmental Change 9 supplement 1 1999 S69S87 and Robert J Nicholls and Richard S J Tol “Impacts and Responses to sea-level rise a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century” Phil Trans R Soc A 364 no 1841 2006 1073-1095 cxxviii IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability eds Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 cxxix For a review of these studies see Mohamed El Raey “Adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the coastal zone of Egypt ” Global Forum on Sustainable Development Organization for Economic 52 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Co-operation and Development February 7 2005 http www oecd org dataoecd 37 21 34692998 pdf accessed May 6 2009 cxxx Susmita Dasgupta Benoit Laplante Craig Meisner David Wheeler and Jianping Yan “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries A Comparative Analysis ” World Bank Policy Research Paper 4136 World Bank February 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org servlet WDSContentServer WDSP IB 2007 02 09 000016406_20070209161430 Rendered PDF wps4136 pdf assessed May 6 2009 cxxxi Susmita Dasgupta Benoit Laplante Craig Meisner David Wheeler and Jianping Yan “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries A Comparative Analysis ” World Bank Policy Research Paper 4136 World Bank February 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org servlet WDSContentServer WDSP IB 2007 02 09 000016406_20070209161430 Rendered PDF wps4136 pdf assessed May 6 2009 and FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations “World agriculture towards 2015 2030 Summary report” Rome 2002 ftp ftp fao org docrep fao 004 y3557e y3557e pdf accessed May 6 2009 cxxxii Susmita Dasgupta Benoit Laplante Craig Meisner David Wheeler and Jianping Yan “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries A Comparative Analysis ” World Bank Policy Research Paper 4136 World Bank February 2007 http wwwwds worldbank org servlet WDSContentServer WDSP IB 2007 02 09 000016406_20070209161430 Rendered PDF wps4136 pdf assessed May 6 2009 cxxxiii World Bank “The World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region MENA Sustainable Development Sector Department MNSSD Regional Business Strategy to Address Climate Change” Preliminary draft for consultation and feedback World Bank Washington DC November 2007 http siteresources worldbank org INTCLIMATECHANGE Resources MENA_CC_Business_Strategy_Nov_2007_ Revised pdf accessed April 15 2009 cxxxiv World Travel and Tourism Council s v v “Egypt ” “Libya ” “Tunisia ” “Algeria ” and “Morocco” http www wttc org eng Tourism_Research Tourism_Economic_Research Country_Reports accessed April 26 2009 cxxxv World Bank “Climate Change and Environment Natural Resources Overview Analytical and Advisory Activities ” http go worldbank org TZ3SBTWB30 accessed April 26 2009 cxxxvi D Moran “Climate Change and Regional Security” workshop Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School sponsored by Long Range Assessment Unit of the National Intelligence Council Monterey California December 11-13 2007 cxxxvii Waleed Hazbun “The Development of Tourism Industries in the Arab World Trapped Between the Forces of Economic Globalization and Cultural Commodification” 30th Annual Convention of the Association of ArabAmerican University Graduates AAUG Washington DC November 1 1997 http hazbun mwoodward com Globalization html accessed April 26 2009 cxxxviii D Moran “Climate Change and Regional Security” workshop Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School sponsored by Long Range Assessment Unit of the National Intelligence Council Monterey California December 11-13 2007 cxxxix Center for Strategic and International Studies “The Politics of North African Energy ” Maghreb Roundtable Washington D C Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies March 2006 cxl Energy Information Administration EIA “International Energy Outlook 2008 Chapter 3 – Natural Gas” Report # DOE EIA-0484 June 2008 http www eia doe gov oiaf ieo nat_gas html accessed May 7 2009 cxli Energy Information Administration EIA “Libya Background” July 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 7 2009 cxlii Energy Information Administration EIA “Libya Background” July 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 7 2009 cxliii Energy Information Administration EIA “Algeria Background” March 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 8 2009 cxliv Hans Günter Brauch “Energy interdependence in the western Mediterranean” Mediterranean Politics 1 no 3 1996 295-319 cxlv Energy Information Administration EIA “Libya Background” July 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 7 2009 and Central Intelligence Agency CIA The World Factbook https www cia gov library publiscations the-world-factbook index html accessed May 6 2009 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cxlvi Energy Information Administration EIA “Libya Background” July 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 7 2009 and Central Intelligence Agency CIA The World Factbook https www cia gov library publiscations the-world-factbook index html accessed May 6 2009 cxlvii Energy Information Administration EIA “Algeria Background” March 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 8 2009 cxlviii Energy Information Administration EIA “Libya Background” July 2007 http www eia doe gov cabs Libya Full html accessed May 7 2009 cxlix Hans Günter Brauch “Energy interdependence in the western Mediterranean” Mediterranean Politics 1 no 3 1996 295-319 cl Plan Bleu Regional Activity Center “Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean ” July 2008 http www eib org attachments country femip-study-climate-change-and-energy-in-the-mediterranean pdf accessed May 8 2009 cli Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Glossary ” Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 clii G Yohe and R Tol “Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity ” Global Environmental Change 12 2002 25-40 cliii E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press cliv N Nakicenovic and R Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 54 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page intentionally left blank 55 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 56 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report Jointly prepared by Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest Division Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-006D August 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication—explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will meet at a workshop or conference to determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on U S national security To support research by the National Intelligence Council NIC on the National Security Impacts of Global Climate Change this assessment of the impact of Climate Change on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands through 2030 is being delivered under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist This research identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature It includes such impacts as sea-level rise water supply and demand agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns The research addresses the extent to which Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands are vulnerable to climate change impacts The timeframe of this analysis extends through 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse timeframes and extend through the 21st century The research also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impacts on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands and other countries regions of interest 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands are at risk from the impact of climate change in the next 20 years due to the region’s large and growing population long coastlines abundant low-lying areas reliance on the agricultural sector and dependence upon natural resources This report focuses on the nations of Thailand Cambodia Laos Vietnam the Philippines Malaysia Singapore and Indonesia These countries have a diverse range of governments populations religions economic growth development and allocation of natural resources but they all have a similar tropical maritime climate and face similar threats from climate change The effects of climate change have already begun in the Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands region • Average annual surface temperatures in the region increased by 0 5-1 1 °C during the period 1901-2005 i • Precipitation patterns are changing regionally with increases in some locations and decreases in others For example annual rainfall decreased across most of the southern regions of Indonesia Java Lampung South Sumatra South Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara and increased across most of the northern regions of the country Kalimantan and North Sulawesi during the period 1931-1990 ii • Sea level is rising and the magnitude varies regionally During the period 1993-2001 the largest increases in sea level 15-25 mm per year in the region occurred near Indonesia and the Philippines while only moderate changes 0-10 mm per year occurred along the coasts of Thailand Cambodia and Vietnam iii Global circulation model projections indicate that climate change will continue to occur in the region over the course of the 21st century • Climate model simulations clearly indicate that average annual temperatures are likely to increase across the region by approximately 1°C through 2030 and they will keep increasing through the remainder of the 21st century • The magnitude location and trends of future precipitation changes are much less certain due to the inherent difficulty of modeling such changes Furthermore future precipitation changes due solely to climate change are difficult to resolve because they are superimposed on significant interannual variations that occur naturally in the region Climate model simulations suggest that net precipitation rates will increase across the region in the next 20 years but there will likely be local decreases that will vary geographically and temporally • It is difficult to project future changes in monsoon patterns and the effects of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation ENSO on precipitation in the region due to the difficulty of modeling these phenomena Climate model results suggest that the onset of the monsoon in Thailand Laos Cambodia and Vietnam may be delayed by 10-15 days for the period 2030-2070 but the duration of the monsoon will not change iv There is no evidence from climate model simulations that ENSO events will become more frequent due to climate change but it is possible that their intensity may increase v 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Sea level will continue to rise although rates will vary across the region By the end of the 21st century sea level is projected to have risen by approximately 30-40 cm vi There is overwhelming evidence that climate change will impact a variety of sectors in Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands through 2030 All of the major effects of climate change on the region are interrelated so it is impossible to assess one impact independently of the others The most high-risk impacts of climate change in the region are related to fresh water and ocean water resources and include the following Sea Level Rise Throughout the region rising sea level causes a number of devastating effects in the region including saltwater intrusion into estuaries and aquifers coastal erosion displacement of wetlands and lowlands degradation of coastal agricultural areas and increased susceptibility to coastal storms These effects are interrelated with impacts on agriculture natural disasters river deltas water resources coastal ecosystems human livelihoods and infrastructure and national security Sea level rise has overarching socioeconomic impacts as well due to loss in income associated with degradation of agricultural areas and loss of housing associated with coastal inundation for example Water Resources Future changes in regional water resources are closely tied to changes in precipitation Individual areas under severe water stress in the region are projected to increase dramatically in the next few decades although model results suggest that the region as a whole will not be at risk for water shortages Fresh water resources on all island nations in the region are especially vulnerable to any variability in precipitation because many rely on rainwater collection for their supply of fresh water The management of water issues is one of the most challenging climate-related issues in the region as it is central to health and sustainable development The impacts of climate change on water resources are interrelated with impacts on agriculture river deltas forests coastal ecosystems diseases and human health and national security Agriculture Assessment of the specific impacts of climate change on agriculture is challenging because it is difficult to reliably simulate the complicated effects of future variations in temperatures precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on crop growth Temperature increases associated with climate change could result in a northward expansion of growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to stimulate plant photosynthesis which would result in higher crop yields Studies show that the beneficial effects of CO2 on plants may be offset by average temperature increases of more than 2°C however Overall it is likely that future crop yields will vary by region and by crop with yield increases in some locations but decreases in others Management of the agricultural sector by regional nations is critical to their economic growth and national security The impacts of climate change on agriculture are interrelated with impacts on sea level river deltas natural disasters water resources and national security Coastal Regions Coastal regions are some of the most at-risk areas for the impacts of climate change in the region due to their prevalence and high population density Mangroves and coral reefs across the region are two key coastal ecosystems that are expected to be significantly impacted by climate change Many coastal areas are already degraded by pollution sediment-laden runoff and destructive fishing practices Climate change-related destruction and degradation of mangroves and coral reefs will only exacerbate these effects and result in long-term economic repercussions since these ecosystems are central to the tourism 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views agriculture fishing and aquaculture industries The area’s coastal regions are also susceptible to inundation associated with sea level rise and destruction of infrastructure from flooding and storm surges which are likely to increase as a result of future climate change Careful management and safeguarding of coastal regions by regional governments is therefore essential in the next 20 years as the effects of climate change manifest themselves Impacts on coastal regions are interrelated with sea level river deltas natural disasters water resources agriculture forests and human livelihoods and infrastructure 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 9 Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of Southeast Asia Climate Predictions Modeling Projections of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Projections of Future Changes in Monsoons and ENSO Projections of Future Changes in Water Resources Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level Projections of Future Changes in River Delta Flooding and Salinity Intrusion 13 13 15 20 23 24 25 26 Impacts of Climate Change on Human and Natural Systems Impacts of Sea Level Rise Impacts on River Deltas Impacts of Natural Disasters Impacts on Water Resources Impacts on Agriculture Impacts on Forests and Biodiversity Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems Impacts on Coral Reefs Impacts on Diseases and Human Health Impacts on Electricity Demand in Urban Areas Impacts on Human Livelihoods and Infrastructure 27 28 28 29 29 30 33 35 35 37 38 39 Adaptive Capacity The adaptive Capacity of Southeast Asia in a Global Context Strengths and Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments 40 40 43 Specific Adaptive Capacity Considerations for Southeast Asia Summary of Possible Adaptive Strategies for Climate Change in Southeast Asia 43 44 Conclusions High-Risk Impacts 47 Annexes A Accuracy of Regional Models B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Asia Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia Pacific Islands' Adaptive Strategies 7 This paper does not represent US Government views 51 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background The Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands region is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change due to its large and growing population its long coastlines and low-lying areas the economic importance of its agricultural sector and its high dependence upon natural resources for development vii This report summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research on projected climate change in Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands and the associated impacts on human and ecological systems across the region Literature sources include the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessments peer-reviewed journal articles and reports generated by governments and scientific organizations The nations that constitute the focus of this assessment are Thailand Cambodia Laos Vietnam the Philippines Malaysia Singapore and Indonesia For convenience these countries are referred to as Southeast Asia in this report unless otherwise noted The geographic scope of this report includes the region of approximately 23 5 °N to 10 °S latitude and 97 °E to 141 °E longitude A map of the region including the countries and their capitals is given in Figure 1 Specific information about the geography economy and society of the countries of interest is summarized below viii Thailand Thailand is a coastal nation that borders Burma Cambodia Laos Malaysia the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand The total area of Thailand is 514 000 km2 composed of 511 770 km2 of land and 2 230 km2 of water and it has 3 219 km of coastline The topography of Thailand includes a central plain the Khorat Plateau in the east and mountainous regions It is subject to droughts nationwide and land subsidence in the Bangkok area resulting from depletion of the water table Environmental issues in Thailand include air pollution from vehicle emissions water pollution from organic and factory wastes deforestation soil erosion and wildlife populations threatened by illegal hunting The estimated population in 2009 is approximately 66 million with an annual growth rate of 0 6 percent The urban population constitutes 33 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 73 years The Thai population is overwhelmingly Buddhist with approximately 5 percent Muslims Thailand has a well-developed infrastructure a free-enterprise economy and generally proinvestment policies which permitted annual real Gross Domestic Product GDP growth of more than 6 percent for the period 2002-04 Overall economic growth fell sharply in 2005-2007 however because persistent political crises stalled infrastructure mega-projects eroded investor and consumer confidence and damaged the country's international image The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $553 billion The labor force includes 43 percent in agriculture 20 percent in industry and 37 percent in services 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This Map is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 1 Map of the geographic region of interest for this report Colored areas indicate the eight nations of focus Laos Laos is a landlocked nation that borders Burma Cambodia Thailand China and Vietnam Laos’ total area is 236 800 km 2 composed of 230 800 km2 of land and 6 000 km2 of water Laos is subject to droughts and floods Current environmental issues include deforestation and soil erosion most of the population does not have easy access to potable water Laos’ estimated 2009 population is about 6 8 million with a 2 3 percent annual growth rate The urban population makes up 31 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 57 years The religious make-up of the population is approximately 67 percent Buddhist 1 5 percent Christian and other unspecified religions Laos is one of the few remaining one-party Communist states It has an underdeveloped infrastructure particularly in rural areas the nation has no railroads a rudimentary road system and limited external and internal telecommunications Subsistence agriculture dominated by rice accounts for about 40 percent of GDP and provides 80 percent of total employment The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $14 billion The labor force includes 80 percent in agriculture and 20 percent in industry and services 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Cambodia Cambodia is a coastal nation that borders Thailand Laos Vietnam and the Gulf of Thailand Cambodia’s total area is 181 040 km 2 composed of 176 520 km2 of land and 4 520 km2 of water Its terrain is mostly low flat plains with mountains in the southwest and north Cambodia is subject to flooding and occasional droughts Current environmental issues include soil erosion lack of potable water in rural areas and declining fish stocks due to illegal fishing and overfishing In addition illegal logging activities throughout the country and strip mining for gems in the western region along the border with Thailand have resulted in habitat loss and declining biodiversity In addition destruction of mangrove swamps threatens natural fisheries Cambodia’s 2009 population is estimated at 14 5 million with a 1 8 percent annual growth rate The urban population makes up 22 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 62 years and 95 percent of the population is Theravada Buddhist Cambodia’s economy grew about 10 percent per year during 2004-2008 driven mainly by construction agriculture tourism and an expanding garment industry As of 2008 the garment industry employed more than 320 000 people and accounted for more than 85 percent of Cambodia's exports The global financial crisis is weakening demand for Cambodian exports however Tourism has grown rapidly in recent years with more than 2 million foreign visitors per year during 2007-2008 The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was approximately $28 billion The labor force includes 75 percent in agriculture with the remaining 25 percent in unspecified areas Vietnam Vietnam is a coastal nation that borders China Laos Cambodia the Gulf of Thailand the Gulf of Tonkin and the South China Sea Vietnam’s total area is 329 560 km 2 composed of 325 360 km2 of land and 4 200 km2 of water Vietnam is subject to occasional typhoons from May to January that can cause extensive flooding especially in the Mekong River delta Current environmental issues include deforestation and soil degradation due to logging and slash-andburn agricultural practices water pollution over-fishing limited potable water supply due to groundwater contamination growing urban industrialization and increasing population migration to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam’s estimated 2009 population is about 87 million with a 0 9 percent annual growth rate The urban population makes up 28 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 72 years The distribution of religions includes 9 3 percent Buddhist 6 7 percent Catholic 1 5 percent Hoa Hao 1 1 percent Cao Dai 0 5 percent Protestant and 0 1 percent Muslim with 80 percent reporting no religion Vietnam has an export-oriented economy with 68 percent of GDP in 2007 coming from exports The agriculture sector has shrunk from 25 percent of the nation’s economic output in 2000 to less than 20 percent in 2008 The global financial crisis will constrain Vietnam's ability to reduce poverty and create jobs in coming years The nation’s GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $242 billion The labor force includes 56 percent in agriculture 19 percent in industry and 26 percent in services 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Philippines The Philippines is an archipelago of 7 107 islands located east of Vietnam between the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea The total area of the Philippines is 300 000 km 2 composed of 298 170 km2 of land and 1 830 km2 of water The Philippines is mostly mountains with narrow to extensive coastal lowlands It is subject to typhoons landslides active volcanoes destructive earthquakes and tsunamis Environmental issues in the Philippines include uncontrolled deforestation especially in watershed areas soil erosion air and water pollution in major urban centers coral reef degradation and increasing pollution of coastal mangrove swamps that are important fish breeding grounds The estimated 2009 population is approximately 98 million with an annual growth rate of 2 percent The urban population constitutes 65 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 71 years The Philippine population is overwhelmingly Catholic with approximately 5 percent Muslims Economic growth in the Philippines has averaged 5 percent since 2001 The economy faces several long-term challenges such as improving employment opportunities and alleviating poverty In the coming years the Philippines will need sustained economic growth to make progress in alleviating poverty given the nation’s high population growth and unequal distribution of income The Philippine economy grew at its fastest pace in three decades in 2007 with real GDP growth exceeding 7 percent but growth slowed to 4 5 percent in 2008 as a result of the world financial crisis The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $320 6 billion The labor force includes 35 percent in agriculture 15 percent in industry and 50 percent in services Malaysia Malaysia occupies the southern portion of the Malay Peninsula and the northern onethird of the island of Borneo Malaysia borders Indonesia Brunei and Thailand Malaysia’s total area is 329 750 km 2 composed of 328 550 km2 of land and 1 200 km2 of water Malaysia is subject to flooding landslides and forest fires Current environmental issues include air pollution from industrial and vehicular emissions water pollution from raw sewage deforestation and smoke and haze from Indonesian forest fires Malaysia’s estimated 2009 population is about 26 million with a 1 8 percent annual growth rate The urban population makes up 70 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 73 years The religious make-up of the population is approximately 60 percent Muslim 19 percent Buddhist 9 percent Christian 9 percent Hindu and other less populous religions Malaysia is a middle-income country that has transformed from a producer of raw materials into an emerging multi-sector economy It has recently attracted investments in high technology industries medical technology and pharmaceuticals As an oil and gas exporter Malaysia has profited from higher world energy prices although the rising cost of domestic gasoline and diesel fuel forced Kuala Lumpur to reduce government subsidies Real GDP growth has averaged about 6 percent per year over the past few years although regions outside of Kuala Lumpur and the manufacturing hub of Penang are growing less robustly Decreasing worldwide demand for consumer goods is expected to hurt economic growth The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $387 billion The labor force includes 10 percent in agriculture 45 percent in industry and 45 percent in services Singapore Singapore is a small city-state that borders Malaysia on the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula Singapore’s total area is 692 7 km 2 composed of 682 7 km2 of land and 10 km2 of water Singapore’s terrain includes lowlands and a gently undulating central plateau that contains a nature preserve Current environmental issues include industrial pollution limited 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views natural fresh water resources limited land availability that causes waste disposal problems and seasonal smoke and haze from forest fires in Indonesia Singapore’s estimated 2009 population is about 4 7 million with a 1 percent annual growth rate The population is 100 percent urban Life expectancy is approximately 82 years The distribution of religions includes 42 5 percent Buddhist 14 9 percent Muslim 8 5 percent Taoist 4 percent Hindu and 4 8 percent Catholic Singapore has a free-market economy that features a per capita GDP equal to that of the four largest West European countries Singapore’s economy depends primarily on exports particularly consumer electronics information technology products pharmaceuticals and a growing service sector Real GDP growth for the period 2004-2007 averaged 7 percent but it dropped to 1 2 percent in 2008 due to the global financial crisis The nation’s GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $240 billion The labor force includes 33 percent in industry and 67 percent in services Indonesia Indonesia is an archipelago between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean Indonesia’s total area is 1 919 440 km 2 composed of 1 826 440 km2 of land and 93 000 km2 of water Its terrain is mostly coastal lowlands although larger islands have interior mountains Indonesia is subject to occasional floods severe droughts tsunamis earthquakes volcanoes and forest fires Current environmental issues include deforestation water pollution from industrial wastes and sewage air pollution in urban areas and smoke and haze from forest and agricultural fires Indonesia’s estimated 2009 population is about 240 million with a 1 1 percent annual growth rate The urban population makes up 52 percent of the total population Life expectancy is approximately 71 years About 86 percent of the population is Muslim with smaller Christian and Hindu populations Indonesia has made significant economic advances in recent years but the nation faces challenges stemming from the global financial crisis and world economic downturn Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years has declined steadily because of increasingly robust GDP growth and sound fiscal stewardship Indonesia still struggles with poverty and unemployment inadequate infrastructure corruption a complex regulatory environment and unequal resource distribution among regions As global demand slows and prices for Indonesia’s commodity exports fall Indonesia faces the prospect of growth significantly below the 6-plus percent recorded in 2007 and 2008 The GDP purchasing power parity for 2008 was $916 billion The labor force includes 42 percent in agriculture 19 percent in industry and 39 percent in services Projected Regional Climate Change Current Climatology of Southeast Asia Southeast Asia has a tropical maritime climate featuring relatively high temperatures high relative humidity and abundant precipitation Figures 2-4 shows the monthly average daily minimum temperatures monthly average daily maximum temperatures and rainfall amounts for the capital cities of the Southeast Asian countries that are the focus of this report There are three basic seasons in Southeast Asia the rainy season winter and summer although the characteristics duration and timing of the seasons vary widely based on latitude and geography Thailand has a rainy warm and cloudy southwest monsoon season from mid-May to September a dry cool winter northeast monsoon season from October to mid-March and a warm and relatively dry summer season from mid-March to mid-May Thailand’s southern isthmus on the Malay Peninsula is generally hot and humid year-round ix 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Laos and Cambodia both have two main seasons the rainy season from May to November and the dry season from December to April x Vietnam has a hot rainy season under the influence of the monsoon from May to September and a warm dry season from October to March xi The Philippines has a northeast monsoon season from November to April and a southwest monsoon season from May to October xii Malaysia has a southwest monsoon season from April to October and a more rainy northeast monsoon season from October to February xiii Singapore has a southwest monsoon season from June to September and a more rainy northeast monsoon from December to March during the inter-monsoon period afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are common xiv Indonesia’s climate is hot and humid year-round although it is more moderate in the highlands xv The general pattern of rainy winter and summer seasons is typical except during El NiñoSouthern Oscillation ENSO events ENSO is a global climate phenomenon that recurs irregularly every 2-7 years and is associated with changes in sea surface temperature and prevailing winds During a period of El Niño the Northeast Trade Winds slacken which increases the length of the dry season and creates drought conditions La Niña is the complementary phenomenon La Niña events are marked by a strengthening of the Northeast Trade Winds and a concomitant increase in the length of the rainy season La Niña years are characterized by widespread flooding landslides and surface runoff from higher than average rainfall There is a great deal of natural climate variability in Southeast Asia The regular pattern of seasonal monsoons can cause extreme weather events such as floods and droughts Overlaid on the monsoon variability is the periodic shift in global climate caused by ENSO which can create or intensify existing floods and droughts Drought in El Niño years can have wide-reaching impacts on countries in Southeast Asia For example during the 1992 El Niño episode total inflow to the Angat Reservoir in the Philippines a major source of domestic and irrigation water supplies was 69 percent less than average for the first six months of the year As a result there was a 20 percent reduction in the domestic water supply for the Manila metropolitan region which necessitated water rationing in many areas The cropping season was also delayed due to water shortages in June and July and there were negative impacts on the national rice yield due to lack of irrigation water xvi 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 30 28 Minimum Temperature °C 26 24 22 20 Bangkok Phnom Phen Vientiane Hanoi Manila Kuala Lumpur Singapore Jakarta 18 16 14 12 be r m ce ov De em be r er ob O ct N Se pt Au gu em be r st ly Ju ne Ju ay M r il Ap ch ar M br Fe Ja nu ar ua ry y 10 Month The Chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 2 Monthly averaged daily minimum temperatures for the capital cities of the Southeast Asian countries that are the focus of this report Climatology values for Bangkok Thailand are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Phnom Penh Cambodia are averaged over the period 1997-2001 values for Vientiane Laos are averaged over the period 1951-2000 values for Hanoi Vietnam are averaged over the period 1898-1990 values for Manila Philippines are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Kuala Lumpur Malaysia are averaged values over the period 1971-2000 values for Singapore are averaged values over the period 1961-1990 and values for Jakarta Indonesia are averaged over the period 1994-1990 Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed April 15 2009 Tropical cyclones called typhoons in the Pacific also bring a great deal of precipitation to regions of Southeast Asia north of approximately 10° latitude Tropical cyclones do not occur near the equator because Coriolis force is required to impart rotation to developing systems thus Indonesia Malaysia Singapore and southern portions of the Philippines are generally spared from their devastating effects Typhoons usually form in the Central Pacific and move in a westerly direction across Southeast Asia The typhoon season typically runs from April to December with the peak number of typhoons generally occurring in September and October Climate Predictions Modeling General circulation models GCMs are the main tool used by scientists to project future climate change These models simulate atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as processes that occur on land As a result GCMs are very complex models and they tend to have rather low 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Maximum Temperature °C 35 30 Bangkok Phnom Phen 25 Vientiane Hanoi Manila Kuala Lumpur 20 Singapore Jakarta em ec D N ov O em be be r r r ct o be Se pt em gu Au be r st ly Ju ne Ju ay M ril Ap ch ar M ua br Fe Ja nu ar ry y 15 Month This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 3 Monthly averaged daily maximum temperatures for the capital cities of the Southeast Asian countries that are the focus of this report Climatology values for Bangkok Thailand are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Phnom Penh Cambodia are averaged over the period 1997-2001 values for Vientiane Laos are averaged over the period 1951-2000 values for Hanoi Vietnam are averaged over the period 1898-1990 values for Manila Philippines are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Kuala Lumpur Malaysia are averaged values over the period 1971-2000 values for Singapore are averaged values over the period 1961-1990 and values for Jakarta Indonesia are averaged over the period 1994-1990 Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed April 15 2009 spatial resolutions on the order of 400 to 125 km To obtain model information on the local and regional scales such as for Southeast Asia at higher resolutions than native GCM grid sizes downscaling is used There are two main downscaling methods dynamical and statistical Dynamical downscaling involves the use of high-resolution climate models with observed or simulated data as boundary conditions This approach has high credibility but it is computationally expensive In contrast statistical downscaling which involves application of established relationships between observed data to modeled data is computationally inexpensive and it can replicate finer scales than dynamical downscaling Statistical downscaling methods do not accurately simulate regional feedback effects however xvii In general GCM predictions of temperature changes for a given region are consistent but predictions of precipitation changes can vary widely due to the difficulty in simulating the myriad of factors that influence precipitation frequency duration and intensity An additional 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 500 Bangkok Phnom Phen 450 Vientiane Hanoi 400 Total Precipitation mm Manila Kuala Lumpur 350 Singapore Jakarta 300 250 200 150 100 50 be r em be r D ec N ov em O ct ob er r Se pt em be Au gu st Ju ly Ju ne ay M Ap ril h ar c M Fe br ua ry Ja nu ar y 0 Month This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 4 Monthly averaged total precipitation values for the capital cities of the Southeast Asian countries that are the focus of this report Climatology values for Bangkok Thailand are averaged over the period 1961-1990 values for Phnom Penh Cambodia are averaged over the period 1997-2001 values for Vientiane Laos are averaged over the period 1951-2000 values for Hanoi Vietnam are averaged over the period 1898-1990 values for Manila Philippines are averaged over the period 1971-2000 values for Kuala Lumpur Malaysia are averaged values over the period 1971-2000 values for Singapore are averaged values over the period 1961-1990 and values for Jakarta Indonesia are averaged over the period 1994-1990 Source World Meteorological Organization World Weather Information Service http www worldweather org accessed April 15 2009 complication for Southeast Asia is the fact that precipitation varies naturally on an interannual time scale due to ENSO and other natural variability Any precipitation changes associated with future climate change in model simulations are overlaid on this natural variability and it can be very difficult for GCMs to resolve the natural and anthropogenic contributions A more detailed discussion of the ability of GCMs to project regional climate changes is given in Annex A GCMs simulate changes in climate under scenarios of future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions The 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES xviii laid out the four basic scenario families used by IPCC scientists to predict future climate change they are summarized in Table 1 This set of scenarios is designed to represent the range of possible future global conditions that will influence greenhouse gas emissions The scenarios are based on consistent and reproducible assumptions about global forces that impact greenhouse gas emissions including economic development population and technological change 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The following excerpt from the 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES describes the emissions scenarios in more detail • A1 The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth global population that peaks in the mid-21st century and declines thereafter and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies Major underlying themes are convergence among regions capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis fossil-intensive A1FI non-fossil energy sources A1T or a balance across all sources A1B where balance is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies • A2 The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world The underlying theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly which results in continuously increasing population Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than other storylines • B1 The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in the mid-21st century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies The emphasis is on global solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability including improved equity but without additional climate initiatives • B2 The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2 intermediate levels of economic development and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity it focuses on local and regional levels Climate researchers frequently use GCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation These models are representative of many GCMs used to simulate the effects of climate change The HadCM2 model has four different integrations that represent the climate effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide water vapor ozone methane and nitrous oxide absorb infrared radiation emitted from the Earth and subsequently emit it back into the atmosphere which results in a net warming of the Earth’s surface HadCM2 includes the combined forcing of all greenhouse gases as an equivalent CO2 concentration of 0 5 percent or 1 percent depending on the integration HadCM2 can also incorporate the negative direct forcing of sulfate aerosols by means of an increase in clear-sky albedo sulfate forcing is 0 5 percent or 1 percent depending on the model integration The influence of sulfate aerosols is 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Emission Scenario Economic Development Global Population Technology Changes A1 Very rapid Peaks around mid21st century and declines thereafter Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies A2 Regionally-oriented Continuously increasing Slower and more fragmented than A1 B1 and B2 B1 Rapid change toward service and information economy B2 Intermediate levels of economic development Same as A1 Continuously increasing but not as fast as A2 Introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies Less rapid and more diverse changes than A1 and B1 Theme Convergence among regions increased cultural and social interactions Self-reliance and preservation of local identities Global solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability Local solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability This table is UNCLASSIFIED Table 1 Summary of IPCC emissions scenarios Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm important because they reflect incoming solar radiation thus less reaches the surface of the Earth which results in a net cooling of the Earth’s surface Each integration of HadCM2 has four ensembles from which an ensemble mean can be calculated xix Ensembles are used to represent the range in uncertainty of model predictions In this case the same model HadCM2 is run four times using different initial conditions The average of a series of ensembles is always more accurate than any single model run HadCM3 is the successor to HadCM2 Its integrations are run under six different climatology scenarios of population growth greenhouse gas emissions and technology development through the 21st century Both HadCM2 and HadCM3 have spatial resolutions of 2 5° latitude by 3 75° longitude In general this resolution is sufficient to resolve climate changes on a country-level scale in Southeast Asia without the need for downscaling or temporal smoothing xx To simulate local climate changes however downscaling is required In contrast to the most recent GCMs which are run under conditions matching the various IPCC emissions scenarios many GCMs prior to approximately 2000 were run under more simplistic conditions The most common method of simulating climate change in the older models was with an equivalent doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations 2×CO2 which represented the net radiative effect of increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times typically equivalent to 560 ppm of CO2 Models established a baseline using current CO2 concentrations 1×CO2 and the change between 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 in model output was considered representative of future climate change Under this type of scenario researchers often neglected to frame the model results in terms of specific decadal changes so the exact timeframe for projected climate changes was not specified Additional information on the GCMs mentioned in this report is available from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre http www ipcc-data org 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Projections of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere during the 21st century are expected to cause a net warming of the Earth’s surface Higher surface temperatures will likely increase surface evaporation and thus global precipitation To quantify regional future changes in temperature and precipitation the IPCC uses a coordinated set of climate model simulations archived at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison called the multimodel dataset or MMD Figure 5 shows the projected increase in temperature for Southeast Asia for the 21st century in the context of observed warming during the 20th century This distinction is important because if GCMs cannot accurately reproduce observed climatic data then they cannot be relied upon to simulate future climate changes To obtain the temperature information shown in Figure 5 a subset of 58 simulations from 14 models of the MMD was used for the observed period and 47 simulations from 18 models for the future projections the future projections were calculated for the A1B emissions scenario The width of the shading and the bars in Figure 5 represent the 5-95 percent range of the model output Results show that by the end of the 21st century the annual mean temperature across Southeast Asia is expected to increase by a median value of 2 5°C with little seasonal variation This increase compares to a historical warming of 0 5-1 1°C in Southeast Asia for the period 1901-2005 The future temperature increase is expected to vary by location with stronger warming in the interior of countries on the Asian mainland and less warming along coastal regions and in island nations xxi IPCC also used the MMD models to estimate precipitation changes for the 21st century under the A1B scenario In contrast to the temperature projections which are consistent in predicting a temperature increase across Southeast Asia future precipitation changes are less straightforward to quantify Results from the MMD simulations show a net increase in precipitation across the region with a median increase in average annual precipitation of 7 percent these increases generally follow the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone ITCZ xxii The ITCZ is a region of low pressure and thus rising air near the equator that occurs where the Northeast Trade Winds meet the Southeast Trade Winds As air rises it cools and moisture condenses out causing clouds and precipitation to form Consequently the ITCZ is marked by a band of heavy precipitation that moves northward and southward seasonally following the warmest surface temperatures The MMD models predict that the strongest and most consistent future increases in precipitation will follow the movement of the ITCZ and thus will occur over Thailand Cambodia Laos Thailand the Philippines Malaysia Singapore and northern Indonesia in June July and August and will occur over southern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea in December January and February During the times when these regions are not under the influence of the ITCZ the models predict that concomitant decreases in precipitation will occur The overall trend forecasted by the MMD models is for precipitation to increase during the rainy season and decrease during the dry season xxiii 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 5 Temperature changes in °C predicted by the IPCC MMD models for Southeast Asia SEA Temperature anomalies for the region with respect to 1901-1950 are shown for 1906-2005 black line as simulated by the MMD models using known forcings red envelope and as projected for 2001-2100 by the MMD models for the A1B scenario orange envelope The colored horizontal bars on the right side of the figure represent the range of projected changes for 2091-2100 for the B1 scenario blue the A1B scenario orange and the A2 scenario red The width of the shading and the bars represent the 5-95 percent range of the model results Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm Variations in future regional precipitation are expected Although a net increase in future precipitation is expected globally in a warmer world regional precipitation rates in Southeast Asia will vary due to a variety of reasons including shifts in the ITCZ changes in the monsoons variations in ENSO local hydrological feedbacks and alterations in atmospheric stability xxiv Future climate change-induced variations of regional precipitation will be superimposed on the natural interannual variations that occur in Southeast Asia For example analysis of monthly rainfall from 210 stations across Indonesia for the periods 1931-1960 and 1961-1990 showed that annual rainfall has decreased across most of the southern regions of Indonesia Java Lampung South Sumatra South Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara and increased across most of the northern regions of the country Kalimantan and North Sulawesi xxv In addition to the global simulations of future temperature and precipitation changes executed by the IPCC several other researchers have conducted localized simulations for the Southeast Asian region Lal and Harasawaxxvi used four GCMs to estimate the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Asia for the periods 2049-2069 and 2070-2099 Their analysis of Southeast Asia included the region of 10°S – 20°N latitude and 95°E – 155°E longitude which encompasses the countries that are the focus of this report except for the northern-most sections of Laos and Vietnam The authors ran the Japanese CCSR NIES model the Australian CSIRO model the German ECHAM4 model and HadCM2 under conditions of greenhouse gas forcing only and combined greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcings Ensemble results for the four GCMs showed a consistent increase in both temperature and precipitation across Southeast 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Asia for both time periods Due to increases in greenhouse gases only the annual average temperature was predicted to increase by 2 15°C the average winter season December January and February temperature was predicted to increase by 2 28°C and the average summer season June July and August temperature was predicted to increase by 2 01°C for the 2049-2069 period The inclusion of sulfate aerosol forcing in the GCMs caused a slight reduction in the magnitude of the expected temperature increases to 1 72°C 1 73°C and 1 6°C for annual winter and summer average temperatures respectively In addition the models predicted a uniform increase of 4 6 percent 3 5 percent and 3 4 percent in annual winter and summer average precipitation respectively for the period 2049-2069 due to increases in greenhouse gases As with the temperature predictions inclusion of sulfate aerosol forcing in the four GCMs resulted in a moderate reduction in the expected precipitation increase to 1 0 percent 2 9 percent and 2 6 percent for annual winter and summer average precipitation respectively The temperature results of Lal and Harasawa are consistent with those of the IPCC MMD models which also predicted little seasonal variation in the expected temperature increases across Southeast Asia The seasonally uniform precipitation results of Lal and Harasawa are in contrast to those of the IPCC MMD models however which showed a variation in future precipitation changes for the rainy and dry seasons The inconsistency of the precipitation estimates from these two studies underscores the difficulty in obtaining consistent precipitation forecasts from GCMs under conditions of future climate change Lal et alxxvii continued their earlier work by simulating the temperature and precipitation effects resulting from climate change over small island states including those of the Pacific Ocean for the periods 2010-2029 2049-2069 and 2070-2099 The authors ran the CCSR NIES CSIRO ECHAM4 CCCma and HadCM2 models under conditions of greenhouse gas forcing only and combined greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcings See M Lal H Harasawa and K Takahashi Future climate change and its impacts over small island states Clim Res 19 2002 179–192 for results from the ensemble of five models for the Pacific Ocean Islands the region 23°S – 23°N latitude and 120°E – 145°W longitude which includes the Philippines and eastern Indonesia Model results projected annual mean temperature increases of 0 93±0 12°C and 0 79±0 05°C due to increases in greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases plus sulfate aerosol respectively by 2010-2029 The models also predicted annual mean precipitation increases of 2 9±1 0 percent and 1 9±0 8 percent due to increases in greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases plus sulfate aerosol respectively by 2010-2029 Similar to the authors’ earlier work in the Asia region xxviii model results for the Pacific Ocean Islands showed a mostly uniform increase in both temperature and precipitation for the three simulated time periods of 2010-2029 2049-2069 and 2070-2099 with little seasonal variation The exception was slightly larger increases in precipitation during the summer season for the periods 2049-2069 and 2070-2099 The authors noted that regional precipitation is strongly dependent on local topography particularly elevated terrain which is typically not well represented in GCMs and consequently there is significant uncertainty in their model projections of regional precipitation due to future climate change Although the IPCC MMD model resultsxxix and the ensemble mean results of Lal and Harasawaxxx and Lal et alxxxi differed slightly from each other regarding the magnitude of projected seasonal precipitation in Southeast Asia the models were generally internally consistent in the sense that they all predicted precipitation increases Other researchers who have used a series of GCMs to estimate the future effects of climate change on precipitation in specific countries in Southeast Asia have obtained conflicting results 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views For example Boer and Faqihxxxii examined the potential changes in future temperature and precipitation in Indonesia through 2080 using the CCSR CSIRO ECJAM4 CGCM1 and HadCM3 GCMs under the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios Results showed an expected uniform increase in average temperature across the country of approximately 0 0344°C per year for the A2 scenario and approximately 0 0211°C per year for the B2 scenario Precipitation changes varied by model and emissions scenario however as CCSR and CSIRO predicted rainfall increases ECHAM4 and CGCM1 predicted rainfall decreases and HadCM3 varied depending on the emissions scenario Based on these results the authors concluded that it was not possible to determine the specific effects of climate change on precipitation across Indonesia Variations in the intensity and occurrence of tropical cyclones typhoons due to climate change will also impact precipitation changes in regions of Southeast Asia north of approximately 10 °N latitude There is significant uncertainty in future changes in tropical cyclone occurrence and intensity however due to the fact that few GCMs have the spatial resolution necessary to simulate synoptic scale patterns The IPCC reports that in general higher-resolution models that can simulate tropical cyclone characteristics predict that mean and peak precipitation intensities will increase in future tropical cyclones Projections of Future Changes in Monsoons and ENSO Regional precipitation in Southeast Asia will be affected by future variations in monsoons due to climate change Giorgi et alxxxiii analyzed the global effects of climate change for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 using nine GCMs run under the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios The model results predicted a consistent increase in summer monsoon precipitation across Southeast Asia relative to the global mean average precipitation Overall precipitation across the region was not expected to change however which suggests that rainfall will decrease in some areas and or during seasons that are not impacted by the monsoon Bhaskaran and Mitchellxxxiv examined the changes in Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation due to climate change for the period 1990 to 2100 using the Hadley Centre HadCM2 global climate model Two scenarios of HadCM2 were used forcing only from greenhouse gases represented by a 1 percent per year increase in CO2 concentration and with the addition of sulfate aerosol forcing Overall the model simulations indicated that monsoon-related precipitation will increase as CO2 concentration increases and monsoon genesis and intensity are sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing Specific results for the region between 5 °N and 25 °N latitude and 90 °E and 105 °E roughly including Thailand Cambodia Laos and Vietnam indicated an expected 10-15 day delay in the monsoon onset date but with no extension of the monsoon season for the period 2030 to 2070 The model simulations also predicted an increase of approximately 3-6 mm day-1 in total daily precipitation and a substantial increase in frequency of intensity of areal mean precipitation for the same period which if realized could lead to an increase in monsoonrelated flooding across the region As previously noted natural variations in monsoon frequency and intensity are tied to ENSO so any future enhancement of ENSO associated with climate change will likely affect monsoon characteristics Future changes in ENSO are very uncertain however because GCMs cannot accurately simulate past observed ENSO variations and thus simulations of future changes are suspect xxxv Paeth et alxxxvi studied potential variations in ENSO and monsoons in the 21st century using a suite of 12 GCMs under six IPCC emissions scenarios Model results projected a substantial warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean of more than 5°C which represented a change in the background state of ENSO There was no compelling evidence in the model 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views simulations for wholesale changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events in the 21st century although results suggested that the intensity of ENSO events may increase The authors concluded that the intensity of summer monsoons in South Asia may increase as a result of changes in ENSO due to future climate change with the caveat that model uncertainty in simulating ENSO makes it impossible to draw any definitive conclusions Projections of Future Changes in Water Resources Changes in temperature and precipitation in Southeast Asia will affect water resources Tao et alxxxvii studied the impact of climate change on global water resources for the period 2021-2030 using two Hadley Centre models HadCM2 was run with forcing from greenhouse gases represented by a 1 percent per year increase in CO2 concentration and sulfate aerosols and HadCM3 was run under the same conditions as HadCM2 but with the addition of ozone changes and the indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols The model results projected that annual mean temperatures will increase uniformly by 0 5-1 5°C across Southeast Asia by 2021-2030 Precipitation projections across the region for the same period were not consistent due to variations between the models The HadCM2 ensemble mean predicted that annual mean precipitation will increase by 0-100 mm in southern Philippines western Malaysia Singapore and western Indonesia increase by 0-50 mm in northern Vietnam Thailand and Laos decrease by 0-50 mm in Cambodia decrease by 0-100 mm in southern Vietnam and eastern Malaysia and decrease by 100-150 mm in northern Philippines and eastern Indonesia HadCM3 results were similar with the exception of a projected increase in annual mean precipitation of greater than 150 mm for most of Indonesia The models were consistent in predicting an increase in annual mean potential evapotranspiration1 of 0-100 mm across Southeast Asia by 2021-2030 which suggests that climate change may cause a net decrease in ecosystem water demand across the region Furthermore model projections showed little change in annual soil moisture deficit across Southeast Asia by 2021-2030 indicating that the region as a whole may not be susceptible to water shortages or water stress on local vegetation due to climate change The models indicated that net increases in precipitation across parts of Southeast Asia due to climate change are likely to lead to increased surface runoff however which in turn may cause increased erosion flooding and water pollution Surface runoff occurs when soil moisture exceeds soil’s water-holding capacity Changes in annual surface runoff predicted by the GCMs mirrored the precipitation predictions with variations across Southeast Asia and among the models Areas with the largest predicted increases in surface runoff included parts of Thailand Philippines Malaysia Vietnam Laos and Indonesia Arnellxxxviii estimated the global effects of climate change on water resources using the Hadley Centre HadCM2 and HadCM3 global climate models All simulations included forcing from greenhouse gases represented as a 1 percent per year increase in CO2 concentration from 1990 to 2100 with no sulfate aerosol forcing Analysis focused on surface runoff and model projections showed that by 2040 annual surface runoff will increase by greater than 150 mm per year in Thailand Malaysia Singapore and the Philippines and decrease by 50 to 150 mm per year in Laos Cambodia Vietnam and Indonesia See Nigel W Arnell Climate change and global water resources Global Environmental Change 9 1999 S31-S49 for a graphic representation of the change in monthly average runoff for Thailand as predicted by the HadCM2 ensemble mean thick black line compared to baseline conditions shaded region The increases in runoff 1 The combined process of water evaporation from the Earth’s surface and transpiration from vegetation 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views were predicted to occur during the rainy season from June through October The magnitude of the predicted changes in surface runoff generated in this study is consistent with that of Tao et al xxxix although the specific locations where increases and decreases in surface runoff were predicted varied among the two studies On a regional scale Jose et alxl investigated the effects of climate change on water resources in the Philippines using the CCCM UKMO and GFDL GCMs run under conditions of 2×CO2 Analysis focused on two major reservoirs Lake Angat and Lake Lanao which provide water for domestic use irrigation and hydroelectric power in the Philippines The models predicted a uniform increase in average annual temperature of approximately 2-3°C at both reservoir locations Predictions of precipitation change were not consistent however CCCM estimated a slight decrease in annual average rainfall while the UKMO and GFDL models predicted a slight increase at both reservoirs The authors used the temperature and precipitation simulations in conjunction with a hydrological model to estimate the changes in future rainfall runoff to the two reservoirs For Lake Angat the predicted changes in runoff were -12 percent 5 percent and 32 percent for the CCCM UKMO and GFDL models respectively Predicted changes at Lake Lanao were -2 percent -12 percent and 7 percent for the CCCM UKMO and GFDL models respectively As might be expected projected changes in runoff roughly correlated with projected changes in precipitation The variations in the model projections underscore the difficulty GCMs have in simulating precipitation changes particularly on a local scale Any areas that see an increase in runoff could experience an increase in flooding while decreased runoff could lead to water shortages These results are comparable to an earlier study by the same authors that focused only on the effect of climate change on water resources at Lake Angat xli A study published as part of the Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Changexlii used the HadCM3 CCC and CSIRO GCMs with downscaling to determine the effect of climate change in 2020 2050 and 2080 for the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed PCW on the island of Luzon in the Philippines Model results showed that by 2020 mean daily precipitation is expected to increase by an average of 6 7 percent and mean daily maximum temperature is expected to increase by an average of 1 6 percent compared to observed daily values for the period 1960-1990 These changes are expected to result in an increase in stream flow during the rainy season and a decrease during the dry season The authors concluded that there will be a higher likelihood of floods during the rainy season and water shortages during the dry season in the PCW Watershed associated with future climate change Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level As the global ocean warms its volume will increase and as a result sea level will increase Net global sea level rose by approximately 17 cm in the 20th century xliii The rate of sea level rise varies regionally however principally due to local variations in the balance between the density and circulation of the oceans Changes in local ocean momentum flux are also important in the tropical Pacific xliv Patterns of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability such as ENSO also influence local sea level rise Recent analysis of tide gauge records and data from the TOPEX Poseidon satellite altimeter indicate that changes in sea level have varied across the tropical Pacific for the period 1950-2001 xlv See J A Church N J White and J R Hunter Sea level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands Global Planet Change 53 no 3 2006 155–168 for trends in sea level for 1993-2001 using a blend of the tide gauge and satellite data The largest recent increases in sea level in Southeast Asia have been observed near Indonesia 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and the Philippines while only moderate changes have been observed along the coasts of Thailand Cambodia and Vietnam These recent rates of change in sea level are characteristic of natural interannual climate variability and are consistent with the trend toward more frequent and intense ENSO events that have been observed in the past 20 years The IPCCxlvi has estimated regional future changes in sea level due to ocean density and circulation changes for the 21st century using the ensemble mean of a subset of 14 models from the MMD Results for the projected sea level change in Southeast Asia for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for the A1B emissions scenario are shown in Figure 6 The regional sea level projections are given in relation to the average global sea level increase of 35 cm expected over the same period by IPCC for the A1B emissions scenario Thus Figure 6 shows that most of the seas around Southeast Asia are expected to rise approximately 0-5 cm above the global average value by the end of the 21st century for a net increase of 35-40 cm A few areas such as the Southern Philippines and parts of Indonesia are expected to observe decreases in sea level of 0-5 cm below the global average value for a net increase of 30-35 cm Any increase in sea level represents a significant change for Southeast Asia which is comprised of low-lying coastal and island nations that will be severely impacted by rising ocean waters This map is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 6 Projected local sea level changes in meters during the 21st century relative to the global average Sea level change is calculated as the difference between averages for 2080-2099 and 1980-1999 from the ensemble mean of 16 GCMs using the A1B emissions scenario The local seal level changes shown are above below the global average sea level rise of 35 cm expected in the 21st century under the A1B emissions scenario Regional sea level changes are attributed to changes in ocean density and circulation Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm Projections of Future Changes in River Delta Flooding and Salinity Intrusion Sea level rise resulting from climate change will affect flooding and salinity intrusion of major rivers and deltas across Southeast Asia Several researchers have examined these effects on the Mekong River Delta in southern Vietnam The health of the Mekong Delta is important because it supports agriculture particularly rice production in Vietnam and Cambodia Since 1997 50 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views percent of rice production in Vietnam has been supported by the Mekong Delta xlvii Flooding of the Mekong Delta can be devastating on rice crops while salinity intrusion reduces the amount of fresh water available for crop irrigation Khang et alxlviii studied the effect of sea level rise on salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta during the dry season December to June using a coupled hydro-dynamic and advection dispersion model Salinity intrusion during the dry season is a problem because fresh water from the Delta permits a dry season rice crop via irrigation and this contribution is essential to Vietnam’s rice production and export The authors ran the model under conditions of the B2 emissions scenario specifically considering the effects of a 20 cm increase in sea level and a 15 percent decrease in Mekong River flow by the mid-2030s The authors measured salinity intrusion by identifying the extent of water with a salinity concentration of 2 5 g L which is the threshold value for reduction in rice yield by approximately 25 percent Results from the model showed that by the mid-2030s the 2 5 g L saline front is likely to shift upstream by 10 km in the main Mekong River and by 20 km in the rice paddy fields during the dry season Consequently due to the associated loss in fresh water from the river for irrigation the total reduction in land area for dry season rice cropping was estimated at approximately 71 000 ha Wassmann et alxlix investigated the effect of sea level rise on flooding of the Mekong Delta during the flood season August to November using a hydraulic model Similar to the work of Khang et al l the authors ran the model under a scenario of 20 cm increase in sea level by 2030 Results showed that in October at the peak of the flood season high water discharge into the Mekong River is expected to increase water levels in the Mekong Delta by 11 9 cm leading to substantial aggravation of annual flooding in the Delta region The authors concluded that increases in sea level due to climate change will cause excessive flooding in tidally inundated areas of the Mekong Delta and longer periods of flooding in the central portion of the Mekong Delta both of which will negatively impact rice production Impacts of Climate Change on Human and Natural Systems Southeast Asia is susceptible to climate change for a variety of reasons It has major populations concentrated along low-lying coastal areas including the poor who subsist as smallholder farmers and fishermen li and it contains fragile and unique ecosystems The economy of much of the region is dependent on vulnerable industries such as agriculture aquaculture fishing and tourism In addition many nations in Southeast Asia are undergoing rapid economic development which will likely exacerbate the effects of climate change on human and natural systems Although the precise extent and magnitude of future climate change in Southeast Asia is uncertain it has already begun to impact the following human and natural systems • Sea level • River deltas • Natural disasters • Water resources • Agriculture • Forests and biodiversity 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Coastal ecosystems • Coral reefs • Diseases and human health • Electricity demand in urban areas • Human livelihoods and infrastructure Nearly all of these systems are interrelated For example rising sea level causes saltwater intrusion into river deltas which limits available fresh water and in turn impacts agricultural irrigation drinking water availability and population patterns Climate change impacts on natural and human systems also have socioeconomic consequences on both micro and macro scales which will affect the economic vitality of individual countries and the region as a whole Impacts of Sea Level Rise As documented in the Model Projections section sea level rose in the Southeast Asia region at rates of up to 3 cm per year for the period 1993-2001 lii and sea level is projected to rise up to 40 cm in the 21st century liii Increases in sea level associated with climate change are particularly problematic for Southeast Asia which is comprised of low-lying coastal and island nations In fact approximately 20 percent of the world’s population of low-lying coastal regions is in Southeast Asia liv The effects of rising sea level on island nations including the Philippines Malaysia Singapore and Indonesia whose borders are mostly or entirely coastline will be most pronounced lv Although limited studies exist recent estimates indicate that Indonesia could lose 2 000 small islands to sea level rise by 2030 lvi The primary impacts of sea level rise are saltwater intrusion into estuaries and aquifers coastal erosion displacement of wetlands and lowlands degradation of coastal agricultural areas and increased susceptibility to coastal storms Climate change-induced sea level rise in Southeast Asia will likely have significant economic effects as well A recent study estimates that rising ocean waters could cause the loss of 40 000 km2 of land in Vietnam particularly rice paddies and necessitate re-engineering of port facilities and transportation systems Taken together these impacts could result in economic losses of up to 80 percent of the yearly Vietnamese GDP lvii In addition coastal inundation of Indonesian cities associated with potential sea level rise in the 21st century is estimated to cause total economic losses of 1 8-2 3 billion lviii Sea level rise is expected to inundate 38 km2 of the total land area of Jakarta Indonesia by 2030 resulting in economic losses of US$1 billion lix Impacts on River Deltas Increases in sea level due to climate change will impact river deltas in a variety of ways particularly by increasing flooding coastal erosion and salinity intrusion The Red River and Mekong River Deltas in Vietnam appear to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change Saltwater intrusion into the Red River Delta is already occurring and as outlined in the Model Projections section saltwater intrusion is expected to move farther inland as a result of climate change Saltwater intrusion is a serious problem for agricultural regions particularly rice paddies since fresh water from river deltas is a primary source of irrigation water in Vietnam Saltwater intrusion also damages coastal ecosystems and modifies fish and wildlife habitats lx A recent studylxi of the impacts of sea level change on global river deltas found that by 2050 there will be serious challenges to human occupancy of delta regions in Vietnam and Indonesia Table 2 shows that almost 2 million people will be at risk from the impacts of sea level rise on 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam which will constitute approximately 6 5 percent of the total population dependent on the delta Furthermore the Vietnam coast is an area of active economic development that is experiencing a rapid increase in population density which will exacerbate future effects of climate change on the health of the Mekong and Red River Deltas lxii River Delta Country Chao Phraya Mahakam Mekong Red Hong Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Population at Risk 12 300 64 800 1 910 000 70 500 % of Delta Population at Risk 0 01 7 06 6 51 0 85 % Delta Area Potentially Lost 0 34 6 29 5 82 0 95 This table is UNCLASSIFIED Table 2 Impacts associated with climate change on Southeast Asian river deltas in 2050 Source Jason P Ericson Charles J Vorosmarty S Lawrence Dingman Larry G Ward and Michel Meybeck Effective sea-level rise and deltas Causes of change and human dimension implications Global and Planetary Change 50 2006 63-82 Impacts of Natural Disasters Natural disasters such as floods droughts and typhoons can have far-reaching impacts on a variety of sectors in Southeast Asia including agriculture water resources coastal ecosystems and infrastructure The Philippines appears to be particularly susceptible to impacts associated with climate change-induced increases in natural disasters The nation experiences a wide range of climate-related hazards including tropical cyclones floods droughts and landslides lxiii As a result flood-prone settlements agricultural lands susceptible to drought highly erodible and unstable areas on steep slopes and grasslands and forests near settlements that are susceptible to fire have been identified as regions in the Philippines that are at risk from climate-change enhanced natural disasters lxiv Incidents of flooding have grown worse recently in the Philippine capital of Manila Flooding in Manila is caused by a combination of climate-change induced sea level rise 1 to 3 mm per year land subsidence 3 to 10 mm per year associated with over-extraction of groundwater and natural deltaic subsidence Currently even moderate rains can cause flooding in the Manila area and some locations are left inundated for weeks or months at a time lxv Impacts on Water Resources Climate change is expected to impact the supply and quality of fresh water in Southeast Asia which in turn will have far-reaching impacts on agriculture coastal ecosystems and population growth Heavy seasonal monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia provides abundant fresh water but increases in agricultural use inadequate planning and misuse and deforestation have led to water shortages in recent years particularly in dry seasons lxvi Climate change will likely exacerbate these effects Recent observed increases in temperature have already contributed to increased evapotranspiration in water bodies which results in decreased fresh water availability Much of Southeast Asia’s water supply and water quality are sensitive to small changes in the frequency and distribution of precipitation Recent changes in precipitation patterns have already been linked with increases in runoff erosion flooding and associated impacts on surface water and groundwater in Southeast Asia lxvii Climate change-induced variations in precipitation patterns such as delays in the onset of the monsoon or a shift toward heavier less frequent precipitation events are therefore expected to have significant impacts on water resources in the 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views region xxxiv Falling water levels in many constructed reservoirs associated with changes in precipitation patterns and droughts in ENSO years have already led to decreased water availability and decreased hydroelectric power production lxviii Fresh water resources on island nations of Southeast Asia are especially vulnerable to any variability in precipitation because many island populations rely on rainwater collection for their supply of fresh water Droughts that are associated with periodic ENSO events disrupt fresh water supplies and any increase in frequency or intensity of droughts associated with future climate change could have severe impacts on water resources lxix Watersheds on the island of Java are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than other islands in Indonesia lxx Although not an island Singapore is also vulnerable to variability in precipitation patterns because its water supply is based upon reservoirs which are significantly impacted by short-term decreases in precipitation lxxi Impacts on Agriculture Agriculture is a major component of the economy in many nations of Southeast Asia Recent increases in population and incomes have changed demands for agricultural products which has led to increases in production of domestic consumption crops such as grains and animal feed and industrial crops such as palm oil and natural rubber These changes have been accompanied by the conversion of huge areas of land for agricultural purposes Future climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture in the region particularly rice and corn production Rice is the most important food crop across Southeast Asia and accounts for more than 80 percent of total grain production in nearly every country in the region lxxii corn is also grown in some key locations such as the Philippines Rice and corn crops are very susceptible to climate variability particularly due to flooding tropical cyclones El Niño-induced droughts and the salinization of coastal waters lxxiii For example for the period 1968-1990 48 percent of the losses in rice and corn production in the Philippines were caused by tropical cyclones and floods 33 percent were caused by drought and 18 percent were caused by weatherrelated incidents of pests and diseases lxxiv In theory temperature increases associated with climate change should cause a northward expansion of growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to stimulate plant photosynthesis which would result in higher crop yields However increased heat stress on plants in a warmer climate may negate the effects of higher CO2 levels since plants are very sensitive to air temperature Many crops in the tropics are already grown in conditions near the maximum temperatures they can endure and even small changes in temperature will decrease their productivity lxxv For example Peng et allxxvi found that during the period 1979-2003 a 1°C increase in growing season minimum temperature during the dry cropping season January – April decreased rice yield by 10 percent at Laguna Philippines Higher minimum temperatures may benefit some crops however particularly those in upland regions and higher latitudes Any increases in coastal or river delta flooding and salinity intrusion due to climate change will likely reduce future crop yields In an attempt to quantify the effects of climate change on crop yield in Southeast Asia several researchers have used GCM climate simulations in conjunction with crop models Matthews et allxxvii investigated the possible changes on rice production in Asia caused by increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature due to climate change using the GFDL GISS and UKMO GCMs The models were run using 300 ppm GFDL GISS and 323 ppm UKMO of CO2 as a 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views baseline concentration 1×CO2 and future climate change was simulated as 2×CO2 Changes in rice crop production were estimated using two rice crop simulation models in conjunction with the GCMs The crop models were calibrated for the indica rice ecotype that is prevalent in Indonesia Malaysia the Philippines and Thailand Overall results indicated that rice yields across Asia are directly correlated with atmospheric CO2 concentrations but indirectly correlated with temperature In Southeast Asia the models predicted clear increases in total rice production of up to 25 percent for Indonesia and Malaysia compared to 1993 production levels Model predictions were split for the Philippines and Thailand however with a modest increase in rice production of approximately 6-14 percent predicted by the GFDL model and a decrease in rice production of approximately 1-12 percent predicted by the GISS and UKMO models These results suggest that the enhancing effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations on rice growth is likely to be more important in Indonesia and Malaysia while the negative effect of increasing temperatures on rice growth is likely to dominate in the Philippines and Thailand Buan et allxxviii studied the potential effects of climate change on rice and corn crops in the Philippines using the CCCM GFDL GISS and UKMO GCMs in conjunction with rice and corn crop models The GCMs simulated changes in total rainfall solar radiation and maximum and minimum temperature for the first and second cropping seasons at six locations in the Philippines based on 2×CO2 The six sites used in the study represented the major rice and corn growing areas in the Philippines with a range in elevation of 22-302 meters above sea level The GCMs predicted an increase in temperature at all six sites for both cropping seasons but estimations of rainfall and solar radiation varied by model location and cropping season Model results projected consistent decreases in corn yield of approximately 11-15 percent at all locations for both cropping seasons but the predictions of changes in rice production were very inconsistent with increases at some locations and decreases at others Amien et allxxix studied the effects of climate change on rice yields in Java Indonesia through 2050 using the GISS GCM in conjunction with a rice crop growth simulation model Rice is a staple food in Indonesia and approximately 60 percent of rice grown in the country comes from the fertile volcanic ash soils on Java lxxx Analysis focused on Ngawi in East Java an inland location on the flood plain of the Bengawan Solo River and Sukamandi in West Java a lowland coastal location These sites are two principal rice production areas in Indonesia Climate change was represented in the GCM by 2×CO2 equal to 555 ppm The GISS simulations predict that in the 2030s decade monthly rainfall at Sukamandi and Ngawi will increase by 10 3 percent and 6 2 percent respectively maximum temperature will increase by 7 2 percent and 6 9 percent respectively and solar radiation will increase by 1 1 percent at both locations Based on these projected changes in meteorological conditions rice yield at Sukamandi is expected to decrease by 18 percent in normal years and remain unchanged in El Niño years at Ngawi rice yield is expected to decrease by 17 percent and 11 percent in normal years and El Niño years respectively In a follow-up study Amien et allxxxi continued their analysis of rice yields in Java Indonesia using the GFDL and UKMO GCMs in addition to the GISS GCM Analysis shifted to Mojosari in East Java an inland site on the flood plain of the Brantas River and Pusakanegara in West Java a lowland coastal site As in their previous study climate change was represented in the GCMs by 2×CO2 equal to 555 ppm Climate projections from the GCMs were incorporated into a crop growth simulation model to determine the effects on crop yield Rice yield results were similar to the earlier study with reductions in yield predicted in both East and West Java due to 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views climate change although higher yield reductions were projected due to natural interannual climate variability such as that associated with ENSO The authors concluded that adoption of heat-tolerant rice varieties by farmers in Indonesia could compensate for expected yield losses due to climate change Most recently Naylor et allxxxii investigated the potential effect of climate change on rice agriculture in Indonesia through 2050 using a suite of GCMs and a risk assessment model Analysis focused on the regions of West Central Java and East Java Bali which account for approximately 55 percent of Indonesia’s annual rice production The authors examined the impact of climate change on natural climate variability particularly ENSO El Niño events typically cause a delay of up to 2 months in the onset of the monsoon in Indonesia which delays planting of the rice crop As a result a 30-day delay in monsoon onset was selected as a critical threshold in the study Analysis of observed data for 1983-2004 showed that the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset was 18 2 percent for West Central Java and 9 1 percent for East Java Bali which corresponded to 11 percent and 6 5 percent reductions in rice production respectively The authors used a set of 20 empirically downscaled CCMs from the IPCC MMD to simulate future changes in precipitation under the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios through 2050 Results showed that in most cases a delay in monsoon onset is likely to occur more frequently in 2050 than it has for the past 30 years For example under the A2 scenario the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050 is expected to be 23-33 percent for West Central Java and 19 8-40 percent for East Java Bali Model projections also suggested that there will be about a 10 percent increase in precipitation later in the crop year April – June and a large decrease of up to 75 percent in precipitation later in the dry season July – September which could have serious negative consequences for rice agriculture in Indonesia As these modeling studies demonstrate crops in Southeast Asia are very susceptible to drought flooding and storms associated with natural interannual climate variability caused by ENSO In recent years delayed onset of the rainy season by up to a month in ENSO years has been observed to cut rice yields by up to 11 percent in parts of Indonesia lxxxiii Potential increases in the frequency and severity of climate extremes under future climate change are expected to cause greater losses which will be exacerbated if extremes occur during critical stages of crop growth In order to address these issues Lansigan et allxxxiv investigated the potential impacts of climate extremes on agriculture by comparing crop-sowing yields for El Niño and non-El Niño years in the Philippines Results indicated that during El Niño years the variability in weather patterns moved the sowing date for rice normally near Julian day 173 to as early as Julian day 137 midMay or as late as Julian date 229 mid-August representing a major change in the cycle of planting and harvest Results also showed that the variability of precipitation in El Niño years reduced crop yield Typically an El Niño year was marked by a shorter more intense wet season which decreased crop growing time subjected crops to stress from excess water and consequently caused a crop loss of 52-81 percent High temperatures also significantly decreased rice production particularly if they occurred during early phases of development Crop water requirements were significantly altered under El Niño regimes because changes in temperature and precipitation altered rates of plant evapotranspiration In the Philippines results showed that El Niño was associated with a 20-50 percent reduction in rainfall requiring increased crop irrigation These results are consistent with the modeling simulations of Amien et allxxxv that projected similar changes on rice yields in Java Indonesia due to ENSO-related 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views climate variability Thus it is likely that natural climate variability will continue to cause significant impacts on Southeast Asian agriculture in coming decades and any increases in the frequency or severity of climate variability due to climate change will serve to aggravate these natural effects On a more local scale a recent studylxxxvi found that water availability is the key parameter affecting mangosteen growth in Thailand Higher mangosteen yields are associated with increased water available to plants during fruiting which suggests that impacts on precipitation associated with future climate change will be important for the mangosteen industry Increases in temperature have also been related to increased outbreaks of agricultural pests and diseases such as rice stem borers and twisting disease Climate change is expected to exacerbate these outbreaks and necessitate the more frequent use of stronger pesticides to protect crops lxxxvii Impacts on Forests and Biodiversity In 2005 the biologically diverse forests of Southeast Asia represented 5 1 percent of the total forest area in the world and they were a major source of global forest products accounting for 50 percent of total forestry exports from Asia and the Pacific lxxxviii Degradation and unsustainable practices such as illegal logging and conversion of native forests to palm oil plantations or agricultural lands have made many Southeast Asian forests particularly vulnerable to climate change Burning and clearing of forests has increased the likelihood that they will not be able to adapt to projected changes in temperature and precipitation The combination of human stresses and climate change is expected to increase the incidence of forest fires and make recovery from fires more difficult lxxxix In addition habitat destruction in Asian boundary forests is increasing Individual plant and animal species are often located in narrow bands of suitable environmental conditions and their ability to tolerate new conditions associated with climate change will determine their future survival xc Teak wood is an important economic product in Indonesia and the Philippines and the teak tree is known to be especially sensitive to increases in temperature and changes in precipitation Such dependence of individual species on existing climate conditions is a major threat to forest health as flora fauna and pests are expected to adapt at different rates and with varying levels of success xci Overall climate change is expected to transform the types and species of forest vegetation in Indonesia xcii Although variations in temperature and precipitation due to future climate change will impact forests across Southeast Asia only a few limited studies are available that project the potential effects on specific species and regions Boonpragob and Santisirisomboonxciii investigated the potential changes in forest type and distribution in Thailand due to climate change using the UK89 UKMO and GISS GCMs The models were run using 320 ppm of CO2 as a baseline concentration 1×CO2 and future climate change was simulated as 2×CO2 Model projections indicated that increases in temperature and variations in precipitation in Thailand due to climate change will reduce areas of subtropical forest and subtropical wet forest and increase the areas of tropical dry forest tropical moist forest and tropical wet forest Overall the model simulations suggested that climate change will likely cause the expansion of tropical dry forest into subtropical moist forest in the northern part of the country and the cause replacement of subtropical forests with tropical forests in the southern part of the country Koskelaxciv examined the effects of predicted climate change on the growth rate of Merkus pine trees in Thailand Merkus pines grow across Southeast Asia at elevations less than 1200 meters 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views including parts of Thailand Laos Cambodia Vietnam and the Philippines Koskela used a gasexchange model to estimate changes in trees’ gross photosynthesis transpiration and stomatal conductance and a carbon- and nitrogen-balance model to simulate the growth of young trees The models were run under several climate change scenarios involving variations in temperature precipitation and atmospheric CO2 The models were used to simulate Merkus pine growth rate changes at two representative locations in Thailand Ban Wat Chan a high-altitude site in the northern highlands and Surin a low-altitude site on the northeastern Khorat Plateau Results showed that rising temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels associated with climate change are expected to increase annual photosynthesis and transpiration rates in pine seedlings and cause concurrent large increases in total tree biomass and height These results suggest that future climate change could enhance growth of Merkus pine trees and shorten the seedling stage The author noted that actual tree growth in the future will be dependent on rainfall variability since prolonged periods of drought could offset any enhancement in tree growth due to higher atmospheric CO2 levels Booth et alxcv assessed the possible effects of climate change through 2050 on two tree species in Vietnam using a climatic mapping program model a simple plant growth simulation model and a process-based tree growth simulation model Each model was run under a range of climate change scenarios involving variations in temperature precipitation evapotranspiration and atmospheric CO2 The authors analyzed two tree species that they considered to be representative of those important for forestry in Vietnam Styrax tonkinensis a native species used for pulp and perfume ingredients and Acacia mangium an introduced species used for pulp and fuel Results from the climatic mapping program indicated that areas in Vietnam which are climatically suitable for growing S tonkinensis will likely decrease as a result of future climate change The simulation models projected that increases of 1-2°C in mean annual temperature in the vicinity of Hanoi will decrease S tonkinensis growth rate by approximately 5-22 percent since the species is not well adapted to warmer growing conditions The authors noted that it was not possible to identify which of the four variables modeled in their study—temperature precipitation evapotranspiration or atmospheric CO2—had the most dominant effect on plant growth under future climate change conditions They concluded that climate change is likely to cause significant alterations in the Vietnamese forestry industry and these effects will be related to shifts in suitable growing regions rather than variations in tree yield Changes in forestry and vegetation due to climate change will likely impact species biodiversity in Southeast Asia To investigate the possible future changes in global biodiversity Malcolm et alxcvi calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in 25 biodiversity hotspots including the Philippines The authors used a suite of 14 GCMs run under conditions of 2×CO2 in conjunction with two global vegetation models Biodiversity hotspots were defined as regions that are home to a large number of the world’s species per unit land area and have suffered significant natural habitat loss Biomes vegetation types were used as proxies for natural habitats in the study Modeled habitat loss for the Philippines was 3-32 percent and associated mean required migration rate was 59-736 meters per year depending on the vegetation model and biome type Although these changes in habitat area and migration rate are from one limited study for a specific area in Southeast Asia the results suggest that climate change likely poses a threat to biodiversity in the region Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems Rapid development of coastal megacities has led to highly concentrated population surges and 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views economic activity in recent years with roughly 80 percent of the population of Southeast Asia living within 100 km of the coasts in 2005 Coastal regions are major contributors to the regional economy because they are central to tourism fishing and aquaculture xcvii Mangroves are a key component of Southeast Asian coastal ecosystems that will be affected by future climate change Mangroves are critical to the region because they provide habitats for fish help maintain coastal water quality protect shorelines from erosion and storm surges and provide products and services for human communities Because of their importance mangroves are very valuable For example the value of Malaysian mangroves for storm protection and flood control is estimated at US$300 000 per kilometer of coastline based on the cost of replacing the mangroves with rock walls xcviii There are several climate change-related effects that are expected to impact mangroves both positively and negatively Sea level rise will impact mangroves to some degree depending on the rate of mangroves’ ability to migrate landward to maintain their preferred hydroperiod Increases in intensity and frequency of storms related to climate change may intensify damage to mangrove forests through defoliation stress and soil impacts Increased precipitation in tropical areas due to climate change may increase mangrove range and biodiversity In addition mangroves are likely to experience increased growth rates in response to increased atmospheric CO2 levels xcix On Olango Island in the Philippines climate change is expected to cause destruction of mangroves deaths of coral reefs and loss of feeding grounds for migratory birds c Other ecosystem impacts in the Philippines associated with future climate change include coral bleaching seaweed and sea grass impacts shoreline erosion and aggravation of marine diseases Ecosystem effects will be driven by changes in ocean circulation marine biogeochemistry and increasing sea surface temperatures ci Along the Vietnam coast climate change is expected to result in loss of habitats for many rare and endemic species destruction of coral reefs mangroves and sea grass beds and a resulting decrease in living resources for residents cii Increases in temperature are also projected to negatively impact fishing and aquaculture with decreased abundance of large predator fish and significant decreases in the viability of fish larvae in warmer waters ciii Impacts on Coral Reefs Sustainable fisheries and coral reef systems are critical to the livelihoods of millions of people across Southeast Asia The region has more coral reefs than any other part of the world with a total of over 100 000 km 2 equivalent to 34 percent of the world’s total The reefs have substantial economic importance—the value of the region’s sustainable coral reef fisheries alone is estimated at US$2 4 billion per year Coral reefs are also important for food security employment tourism pharmaceutical research and shoreline protection civ Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration associated with climate change affect ocean water chemistry and have a direct impact on the growth of corals Silverman et alcv studied these effects using a coupled climate carbon cycle model Coral reefs grow by precipitating calcium carbonate CaCO3 from ocean water but the chemistry of the oceans is being changed by rising atmospheric CO2 levels that are causing the oceans to become more acidic Results from the model study show that most coral reefs are currently precipitating 20-40 percent less CaCO3 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views compared to pre-industrial times and reefs located in the warm water pool of the Western Pacific show the strongest response to changes in water chemistry and temperature associated with climate change When atmospheric CO2 concentrations reach 560 ppm which represents a doubling of CO2 levels since pre-industrial times all coral reefs are expected to stop growing and begin to dissolve Present atmospheric CO2 concentrations are approximately 380 ppm and if emissions continue at the current rate atmospheric levels will reach 560 ppm by the mid-22nd century cvi The potential widespread reduction in the number and extent of coral communities due to the climate change-induced decline in coral skeleton growth rates will have devastating impacts on coastal marine ecosystems and the various industries that are dependent on coral reefs Increasing sea surface temperatures associated with climate change are also a significant threat to the health of coral reefs in Southeast Asia Elevated sea surface temperatures cause coral bleaching which is the loss of color due to stress-induced expulsion of algae or loss of pigmentation of algae within the corals The 1997-1998 ENSO caused the largest worldwide coral bleaching event ever recorded damaging or destroying an estimated 18 percent of Southeast Asia’s coral reefs An increase in ocean water temperatures of only 1-2°C above the normal threshold temperature for a few weeks can cause a bleaching event and extreme or prolonged temperature anomalies such as those expected from future climate change can cause significant coral mortality cvii Increased temperatures in recent years have significantly increased coral reef bleaching in the region notably in the vast and diverse reefs of Indonesia the Philippines and Thailand cviii Mass bleaching and mortality of corals has been widespread since the 1980s but the magnitude varies significantly and is correlated with hot spots of sea surface temperature Corals in accelerated warming regions will likely be impacted sooner than predicted by global climate change models Impacts will be less severe and occur more slowly for corals in waters that are anomalously cooler than the global average such as those around Indonesia cix The reefs of Southeast Asia particularly near Indonesia and the Philippines are already degraded by pollution sediment-laden runoff destructive fishing practices and other human impacts cx all of these effects will be compounded by climate change Southeast Asian reefs do have several characteristics that make them more favorable for recovery compared to other ocean reefs however such as high levels of biodiversity large-scale through-flow of Pacific Ocean water and nearby reef systems to aid in reproduction Impacts on humans as a result of coral damage and destruction due to climate change include lost or reduced tourism and fishery activities and more difficult to quantify aspects such as shoreline damage cxi Guinotte et alcxii studied marginal coral reefs in the Pacific basin which are those reefs considered to be living at the extremes of tolerable environmental limits Results showed that corals in Southeast Asia that are most likely to become marginal due to increasing sea surface temperatures by 2069 are those in the Philippines Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea Recent country-specific impacts on coral reefs include the following cxiii • Thailand has an estimated 1 800 km2 of coral reefs in the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea Sea surface temperature increases along Thailand’s coasts have been particularly pronounced such as near Phuket where the sea surface temperature increased at a rate of more than 0 02°C per year between 1981 and 1999 As a result of the warming waters coral reefs along Thailand’s coasts have experienced significant bleaching episodes especially in 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the Gulf of Thailand Existing pressures due to economic development such as sedimentation and wastewater pollution associated with tourism are expected to compound climate change pressures on reefs Some coral reefs around small islands are currently under only minimal threat from existing pressures • The coral reefs of Cambodia and Vietnam are some of the most threatened in Southeast Asia over 95 percent are threatened by existing pressures such as overfishing land use changes and high population density • There are over 350 species of coral in Malaysia Over 85 percent of Malaysia’s reefs are currently threatened by existing pressures such as shipping lanes harmful fishing practices and land use changes • Singapore has many fringing and patch reefs around both its main island and small offshore islands Singapore’s total coral reef area is estimated to be about 54 km2 and includes more than 197 hard coral species These reefs are also some of the most threatened in Southeast Asia with over 95 percent threatened by existing pressures including land reclamation and development • Indonesia has approximately 51 000 km2 of coral reefs and over 85 percent are currently threatened by existing pressures such as overfishing and land use changes Indonesia’s coral reefs provide annual economic benefits estimated at US$1 6 billion per year The greatest diversity of coral reef fish in the world is found in Indonesia with more than 1 650 species in eastern Indonesia Monitoring shows that the nation’s reef conditions are currently declining The 1997-1998 El Niño killed up to 95 percent of coral around certain Indonesian islands Some areas have rebounded remarkably possibly due to anomalously cooler waters in the area around Indonesia • The Philippines’ coral reefs are severely threatened by existing pressures including overfishing destructive fishing practices agriculture and aquaculture The Philippines’ approximately 26 000 km2 of coral reefs contain extremely diverse species and they provide annual economic benefits estimated at US$1 1 billion per year The first ever mass-bleaching event in the Philippines was reported in 1998-1999 it proceeded nearly clockwise around the Philippines and was correlated with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures Impacts on Diseases and Human Health Climate-related health risks in Southeast Asia include increases in vector-borne disease heat stress food stress and air pollution Studies suggest that disease outbreaks in the region including malaria dengue diarrhea and cholera are linked with climate events such as droughts and floods which are in turn strongly related to ENSO events Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have already been linked to increases in dengue fever and malaria in Indonesia Thailand and Vietnam cxiv Mosquito populations will be affected by variations in temperature and precipitation associated with future climate change and thus the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria are likely to be affected as well Environmental conditions strongly influence the growth and survival of mosquitoes The optimum temperature range for mosquito survival is 20-25°C and rainfall is critical for mosquito reproduction because standing water is necessary for several of their life stages Flooding due to excessive precipitation however can disrupt mosquito larvae development cxv 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Hopp and Foleycxvi modeled the response of Ae aegypti the principal mosquito carrier of dengue fever to observed climate variations for the period 1958-1995 in order to determine how future climate change may impact the incidence of worldwide dengue fever cases They found that there was a strong relationship between mosquito larvae density and temperature precipitation and relative humidity Results showed that for countries in Southeast Asia cases of dengue fever are strongly dependent on climate-induced variations in mosquito densities As a result it is likely that increases in temperature and precipitation expected from future climate change in Southeast Asia will cause increased incidence of dengue fever across the region in the absence of preventive measures to control the spread of the disease Martens et alcxvii conducted a similar study that investigated the potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk The authors predicted changes in malaria epidemic potential for the 21st century by using temperature and precipitation output from the UKMO GCM run under two emissions scenarios in conjunction with an integrated linked-system model Analysis focused on the P vivax and P falciparum mosquito species The authors concluded that temperature and precipitation are the main climate variables that affect malaria transmission Model results indicated that the incidence of malaria infection is sensitive to future climate change in Southeast Asia and as a result an increased rate of malaria infection is likely across the region in the 21st century Projected increases in flooding due to changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise are expected to increase the risk of water-borne disease such as dermatosis amoebiasis cholera giardia shigellosis and typhoid Residents of Southeast Asia already have higher risks of mortality and morbidity from water-borne diseases than in many other parts of the world and climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks cxviii Heat is also a public health threat especially among the elderly and very young Chronic exposure to excessive heat has been linked to increased incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases Researchers have noted that humans may be capable of adapting to heat associated with climate change but the response time cannot be predicted cxix A recent studycxx found that human health impacts from climate change in the Philippines include blooms of toxic marine micro-organisms which can lead to dietary constraints and even poisoning increases in heat stroke and vector-borne diseases and population dislocation Although this study was focused on the Philippines the impacts are applicable across the Southeast Asian region Impacts on Electricity Demand in Urban Areas Future increases in temperature and relative humidity associated with climate change will impact electricity demand across Southeast Asia particularly in urban areas where air conditioning is more common In order to determine the effect of climate change on temperature and associated electricity demand in Thailand through 2080 Parkpoom and Harrisoncxxi ran the HadCM3 general circulation model under four integrations that corresponded to the A1 A2 B1 and B2 emissions scenarios These four scenarios were selected in order to represent the range of future socioeconomic developments in Thailand Model analysis focused on the Bangkok metropolitan area since 70 percent of Thailand’s electricity demand is concentrated there An initial linear regression analysis found that temperature is the most significant weather variable that affects electricity demand in Thailand The model simulations were run to predict temperature increases due to climate change and that information was fed into an electricity demand sensitivity model 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views in order to estimate the concomitant increases in electricity demand Results showed that annual mean temperature is expected to increase by approximately 0 46-0 67°C in the 2020s 20112040 and 1 1-1 9°C in the 2050s 2041-2070 in Thailand under the four climatology scenarios These temperature increases translate into an expected increase in peak electricity demand of 1 0-3 1 percent in the 2020s and 2 8-8 5 percent in the 2050s with the highest demand during the summer season Variations among model output corresponding to the four climatology scenarios became more pronounced as time increased The authors concluded that the potential changes in electricity demand predicted by the model runs are significant and likely necessitate substantial investment in electrical power plant capacity to meet future demand Nevertheless these projected increases may only be a small portion of what is expected to occur over the next few decades due to economic development For example electricity consumption in Malaysia has been increasing on the order of 4-8 percent per year since 2001 and this rate is expected to continue cxxii Thus a 1-8 percent increase in electricity demand in Thailand over the next 60 years associated with climate change may be only a small fraction of the total increase in demand due to general economic development urbanization and increases in manufacturing Impacts on Human Livelihoods and Infrastructure Livelihoods in many parts of Southeast Asia particularly in less urban areas are heavily dependent on natural resources Whether derived from fisheries coral reefs forests agriculture or tourism residents are sensitive to impacts on these natural resources from climate change cxxiii In the Philippines climate change will heavily impact coastal-dwelling Filipinos who are highly dependent on coastal resource related livelihoods such as fishing seaweed cultivation aquaculture shell collecting and tourism cxxiv Population resettlement options in Manila are hindered by residents’ strong cultural connections to lifelong homelands particularly among impoverished populations cxxv Climate-related increases in sea level and ecological perturbations related to extreme weather events will compound anthropogenic and climate change-related pressures such as shortages in drinking water on small islands These pressures could increase human migration to the mainland or larger islands cxxvi Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal zones has increased across the region in recent years damaging infrastructure and natural resources Thailand’s coastline is already observed to be eroding at a rate of 15-25 meters per year in some places cxxvii In Indonesia adaptation to new livelihoods and resettlement as a result of increased coastal inundation associated with sea level rise will be particularly difficult for very low-income households with little social safety net and other cultural constraints Impacts from inundation include physical damage to houses and social damage such as interruption of school and commerce In the city of Makassar for example the estimated damage to 4 000 houses from sea level rise in 2000-2002 was approximately US$11 million Entire sections of communities in coastal Indonesia are already being abandoned because of frequent inundation often within unplanned housing communities containing highly impoverished residents Climate change is expected to exacerbate these problems cxxviii Adaptive Capacity The impacts of climate change will be felt differentially depending upon how well a society can cope with or adapt to climate change Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCCcxxix as the ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences Thus adaptive capacity is distinguished from both climate change impacts and the degree to which those impacts affect the systems that are in place as discussed in the previous sections Although the specific determinants or drivers of adaptive capacity are a matter of debate among researchers there is broad agreement that economic human and environmental resources are essential elements Some components of this adaptive capacity are near-term such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by for example floods or droughts Other components include a level of education sufficient for people to change livelihoods a quantity of unmanaged land that can be brought into food production and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change For instance Yohe and Tolcxxx identified eight qualitative determinants of adaptive capacity many of which are societal in character although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing 1 The range of available technological options for adaptation 2 The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3 The structure of critical institutions the derivative allocation of decision-making authority and the decision criteria that would be employed 4 The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5 The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6 The system’s access to risk-spreading processes 7 The ability of decisionmakers to manage information the processes by which these decisionmakers determine which information is credible and the credibility of the decisionmakers themselves 8 The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations The Adaptive Capacity of Southeast Asia in a Global Context Researchers have only recently taken on the challenge of assessing adaptive capacity in a comparative quantitative framework A global comparative studycxxxi of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM – see box on page 44 Adaptive capacity as assessed in this study consists of seven variables in three sectors chosen to represent societal characteristics important to a country’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Human and Civic Resources • Dependency ratio proxy for social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting basic needs • Literacy proxy for human capital generally especially the ability to adapt by changing employment Economic Capacity • GDP market per capita proxy for economic well-being in general especially access to markets technology and other resources useful for adaptation • Income equity proxy for the potential of all people in a country or state to participate in the economic benefits available Environmental Capacity • Percent of land that is unmanaged proxy for potential for economic use or increased crop productivity and for ecosystem health e g ability of plants and animals to migrate under climate change • Sulfur dioxide per unit land area proxy for air quality and through sulfur deposition other stresses on ecosystems • Population density proxy for population pressures on ecosystems e g adequate food production for a given population Methodological Description of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The vulnerability index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be negatively affected by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is composed of one to three proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birthrate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk due to sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is comprised of the geometric means of participating values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of the adaptive capacity and sensitivity 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The adaptive capacities for a sample of 10 countries from the 160-country study are shown in Figure 7 for the base year of 2005 These countries represent a wide range of adaptive capacity of note for the Southeast Asian region Indonesia ranks 45th high in the second quartile and the Philippines ranks 91st high in the third quartile Any country-level analysis must take into account the comparative ranking of the country in the 160-country group Figure 8 shows the contribution of each variable in the model to the overall ranking of adaptive capacity Slight differences occur in the contribution of the variables among the countries due to the overall methodology as described in the box below Indonesia ranks third because of its relatively high rankings in most areas the exceptions are a very low ranking in GDP per capita and a moderately low ranking in non-managed land The lower overall rank of the Philippines stems principally from low rankings in the equity index and dependency ratio Figure 9 shows projected adaptive capacity growth over time for the 10-country sample Projections are made for two scenarios with rates of growth based on the A1 emissions scenario Both modeled scenarios feature moderate population growth and a tendency toward convergence in affluence featuring market-based solutions rapid technological progress and improving human welfare The scenarios used in this study differ in the rate of economic growth one models high-and-fast economic growth and the other models delayed growth In the delayedgrowth scenario Indonesia showed strong growth in adaptive capacity and is projected to Ranking of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India Morocco Haiti 0 20 40 60 80 100 This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 7 Adaptive capacity for a sample of 10 countries for the base year of 2005 Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views overtake Libya by 2035 The Philippines showed good growth in adaptive capacity and is projected to catch up with Mexico by 2065 In the high-growth scenario Indonesia ranks in the top three countries however China is predicted to move past Indonesia by 2020 By 2065 the model projects that the Philippines will have moved past Mexico and caught up to Belize Strengths and Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments Comparative measures of adaptive capacity such as the model results outlined in the previous section only allow analysts to ask improved more focused questions about area or local conditions that can contribute to or reduce resilience It is likely for instance that important variables or domains for particular sub-national areas are not included For agricultural regions a key domain might be the extent of irrigation for urban areas it might be better measures of education In addition the measure of unmanaged land does not account for the potential usefulness of that land Comparative measures are an important first step toward determining the allocation of resources either for further analysis or to address additional factors Specific Adaptive Capacity Considerations for Southeast Asia Climate change is expected to exacerbate the effects of natural disasters such as floods droughts and typhoons Community-based disaster preparedness focuses on building adaptive and coping capacities at the local level such as construction of flood control infrastructure and emergency shelters and providing community training A community-based disaster preparedness pilot project in the Philippines in 1998-1999 demonstrated the promise of this approach to overcoming impacts associated with climate change while also highlighting the need to simultaneously increase local capacity and responsibility cxxxii Expansion of this type of disaster preparedness program to other nations in Southeast Asia could help mitigate the expected impacts of climate change on the region Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya GDP per capita equity index dependency ratio literacy levels non-managed land % emssions total land Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India population density Morocco Haiti 0 200 400 600 This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 8 The contributions of several variables to adaptive capacity rankings Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Many Southeast Asian countries are facing a water crisis due more to poor management than to water scarcity Rapid industrialization and increases in population and wealth have led to dramatic increases in demands for water and energy in many Southeast Asian nations With the additional stresses expected from climate change Asian countries will need to consider new methods for water management to ensure sustainability of water resources for human and ecological requirements cxxxiii • The recent sustained regional economic growth of Southeast Asian countries is energyintensive and has relied heavily on consumption of fossil fuels International policy responses to global climate change in the next several decades may restrict use of fossil fuels cxxxiv which will necessitate that Southeast Asian governments invest in development of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power • Improvement in the coordination of policy and planning to address adaptive capacity in Southeast Asia is vital because climate change will have impacts far beyond the purview of a single governmental ministry or organization To improve adaptive capacity inter-agency and inter-ministry coordination is required and must include integration with national disaster risk management cxxxv • A holistic approach to building adaptive capacity which will include the needs of vulnerable groups and vulnerable locations is recommended for Southeast Asia Part of this holistic approach is the consideration of the potential impacts of adaptation measures For example a dam and reservoir may increase the adaptive capacity of one region but it may negatively influence the adaptive capacity of downstream communities cxxxvi Summary of Possible Adaptive Strategies for Climate Change in Southeast Asia The following adaptive strategies were recently summarized in a review report on climate change in the Asia Pacific region cxxxvii The effectiveness and suitability of these strategies will vary for the different countries in Southeast Asia depending on national priorities and specific susceptibilities to the impacts of climate change but all of these strategies are potentially relevant for the region Disasters and Emergency Management • Diversify economic activity to reduce reliance upon climate-sensitive sectors • Develop emergency management plans for climate hazards • Develop early warning systems for extreme weather events e g flood cyclones heat waves • Expand availability and use of risk-spreading institutions e g insurance government assistance • Identify critical activities and infrastructure for protection e g health services energy transport communication 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity in the Delayed Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Adaptive Capacity in the High Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China Philippines 50 India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 This chart is UNCLASSIFIED Figure 9 Projections of adaptive capacity for 10 countries under a delayed growth scenario and a high growth scenario Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Water Resources • Develop new water resources and storages where possible • Invest in climate and catchment monitoring and research • Rehabilitate existing water supply and transport systems • Implement water management measures • Increase recycling and reuse of waste water • Invest in water saving technologies methods Agriculture • Change farming practices • Change timing of farm operations • Use different crop varieties i e heat resistant • Review governmental and institutional policies and programs • Research new practices and technologies e g land-use planning biotechnology • Develop drought management and relief protocols Forests and Biodiversity • Establish conservation areas and networks • Invest in natural resource management plans • Manage land use to reduce environmental harm • Identify at-risk ecosystems and species • Develop aquaculture and plantation forestry instead of exploiting native resources Coastal Communities • Identify vulnerable areas communities and infrastructure • Channel future development around high moderate and low growth areas • Develop coastal zone management plans • Construct new or modify existing coastal defenses • Design infrastructure to accommodate sea-level rise • Manage progressive retreat from the coastline Public Health • Develop early warning systems for extreme weather events e g flood cyclones heat waves • Establish or bolster public health institutions 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Engage in research and development regarding disease transmission and prevention • Improve access of individuals and communities to medical and public health agencies • Provide education in disease prevention Conclusions High-Risk Impacts There is overwhelming evidence that climate change will impact a variety of Southeast Asian sectors through 2030 The timing and magnitude of climate change impacts are difficult to quantify due to limitations in projections of future trends in temperature and precipitation in Southeast Asia Studies using GCMs indicate that average annual temperatures across the region will rise by approximately 1°C through 2030 and they will keep rising through the remainder of the 21st century The magnitude location and trends of future precipitation changes are much less certain however due to the inherent difficulty in modeling such changes Future alterations in precipitation patterns associated with climate change are complicated by a strong natural variability in local climate associated with ENSO that routinely causes flooding and droughts across the region Model simulations suggest that net precipitation rates will increase across Southeast Asia in the next 20 years but there will likely be local decreases A recent studycxxxviii found that the areas in Southeast Asia that are most vulnerable to climate change are • All regions of the Philippines • The Mekong River Delta in Vietnam • Most regions of Cambodia • North and East Laos • The Bangkok region of Thailand • West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java and East Java in Indonesia The most high-risk impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia are related to fresh water and ocean water resources due to the region’s heavy dependence on precipitation for supplies of fresh water and its close proximity to the ocean All of the major effects of climate change on Southeast Asia are interrelated so it is impossible to assess one impact independently of the others Sea Level Rise • Sea level rose in the Southeast Asia region at rates up to 3 cm per year during 1993-2001 and GCM projections indicate that it will continue to rise up to 40 cm by the end of the 21st century • Since Southeast Asia is composed entirely of low-lying coastal and island nations rising sea level causes a number of devastating effects including saltwater intrusion into estuaries and aquifers coastal erosion displacement of wetlands and lowlands degradation of coastal agricultural areas and increased susceptibility to coastal storms 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Impacts from sea level rise are interrelated with impacts on agriculture natural disasters river deltas water resources coastal ecosystems human livelihoods and infrastructure and national security • Sea level rise also has overarching socioeconomic impacts due to loss in income associated with degradation of agricultural areas and loss of housing associated with coastal inundation for example Water Resources • Future changes in Southeast Asian water resources are closely tied to changes in precipitation • GCM results suggest that there will be a net increase in surface runoff across the region but local trends will vary with increases in some areas and decreases in others Any areas that see an increase in runoff could experience an increase in erosion flooding and water pollution while decreased runoff could lead to water shortages • Individual areas under severe water stress in Southeast Asia are projected to increase dramatically in the next few decades although model results suggest that the region as a whole will not be at risk for water shortages • Fresh water resources on island nations of Southeast Asia are especially vulnerable to any variability in precipitation because many island populations rely on rainwater collection for their supply of fresh water • The management of water issues is one of the most challenging climate-related issues in Southeast Asia as it is central to health and sustainable development • Water resource impacts are interrelated with impacts on agriculture river deltas forests coastal ecosystems diseases and human health and national security Agriculture • Agriculture is a major component of the economy in many nations of Southeast Asia and there is no question that it will be significantly affected by climate change in the next 20 years • Assessment of specific agriculture impacts is challenging because it is difficult for GCMs and crop models to reliably simulate the complicated effects of future variations in temperatures precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on crop growth • Overall it is likely that future crop yields will vary by region and by crop with yield increases in some locations but decreases in others • Climate change-induced impacts on agriculture will be augmented by natural climate variability especially due to ENSO which is responsible for serious impacts on agriculture associated with droughts floods and severe storms • Management of the agricultural sector by Southeast Asian nations is critical to their economic growth and national security Food shortages in the region clearly associated with ENSO years in the past and projected to increase with changing climate will stress poor populations across the region who are already susceptible to malnutrition 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Agriculture impacts are interrelated with impacts on sea level river deltas natural disasters and water resources Coastal Regions • Coastal regions are some of the most at-risk areas for the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia due to their prevalence and high population density • Many coastal areas in Southeast Asia are already degraded by pollution sediment-laden runoff and destructive fishing practices • Mangroves and coral reefs are two key coastal ecosystems that are expected to be significantly impacted by climate change Destruction and degradation of mangroves and coral reefs will result in long-term economic repercussions for Southeast Asia since these ecosystems are central to the tourism agriculture fishing and aquaculture industries • Coastal regions obviously are susceptible to inundation associated with sea level rise and destruction of infrastructure from flooding and storm surges which are likely to increase as a result of future climate change • Careful management and safeguarding of coastal regions by Southeast Asian governments is essential in the next 20 years as the effects of climate change manifest themselves • Impacts on coastal regions are interrelated with impacts on sea level river deltas natural disasters water resources agriculture forests and human livelihoods and infrastructure 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models This is an excerpt from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group 1 Report Chapter 11 Regional Climate Projections see original text for references 2 11 4 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate Regional mean temperature and precipitation in the MMD models show biases when compared with observed climate The multi-model mean shows a cold and wet bias in all regions and in most seasons and the bias of the annual average temperature ranges from –2 5°C over the Tibetan Plateau TIB to –1 4°C over South Asia SAS For most regions there is a 6°C to 7°C range in the biases from individual models with a reduced bias range in Southeast Asia SEA of 3 6°C The median bias in precipitation is small less than 10 percent in Southeast Asia South Asia and Central Asia CAS larger in northern Asia and East Asia NAS and EAS around 23 percent and very large in the Tibetan Plateau 110 percent Annual biases in individual models are in the range of –50 to 60 percent across all regions except the Tibetan Plateau where some models simulate annual precipitation 2 5 times that observed and even larger seasonal biases occur in winter and spring These global models clearly have significant problems over Tibet due to the difficulty in simulating the effects of the dramatic topographic relief as well as the distorted albedo feedbacks due to extensive snow cover However with only limited observations available predominantly in valleys large errors in temperature and significant underestimates of precipitation are likely Southeast Asia The broad-scale spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in December-JanuaryFebruary DJF and June-July-August JJA averaged across the MMD models compares well with observations Rajendran et al 2004 examine the simulation of current climate in the MRI coupled model Large-scale features were well simulated but errors in the timing of peak rainfall over Indochina were considered a major shortcoming Collier et al 2004 assess the performance of the CCSM3 model in simulating tropical precipitation forced by observed sea surface temperature SST Simulation was good over the maritime continent compared to the simulation for other tropical regions B Wang et al 2004 assess the ability of 11 atmospheric general circulation models AGCMs in the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulation forced with observed SST variations They found that the models’ ability to simulate observed interannual rainfall variations was poorest in the Southeast Asian portion of the domain Since current atmosphere-ocean general circulation models AOGCMs continue to have some significant shortcomings in representing El Niño- Southern Oscillation ENSO variability the difficulty of projecting changes in ENSO-related rainfall in this region is compounded Rainfall simulation across the region at finer scales has been examined in some studies The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO stretched-grid Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM at 80-km resolution shows reasonable precipitation simulation in JJA although Indochina tended to be drier than in the observations McGregor and Nguyen 2003 Aldrian et al 2004 conducted a number of simulations with the Max-Planck Institute MPI regional model for an Indonesian domain forced by reanalyses and 2 Some references have been removed to avoid confusion 51 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views by the ECHAM4 GCM The model was able to represent the spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall It was found that a resolution of at least 50 km was required to simulate rainfall seasonality correctly over Sulawesi The formulation of a coupled regional model improves regional rainfall simulation over the oceans Aldrian et al 2004b Arakawa and Kitoh 2005 demonstrate an accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over Indonesia with an AGCM of 20-km horizontal resolution 52 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex B Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in Southeast Asia and Southeast Asia's Adaptive Strategies To increase the likelihood that this report represents a reasonable assessment of the projections and impacts of future climate change in Southeast Asia as well as the region’s adaptive capacity the following general data gaps must be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses of climate change are limited by the inability of GCMs to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes For example uncertainties in changing monsoonal activity and ENSO due to natural variations and anthropogenic emissions are important information gaps needed for accurate climate projections A particularly critical modeling gap for Southeast Asia is the fact that GCMs cannot consistently project the magnitude and location of future precipitation on a country-specific scale Another important data gap is the lack of reliable medium-term climate projections that can be used for planning adaptive strategies for the next 20-30 years Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate knowledge of various climate and physical factors Research agendas in these areas can be found in for instance the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program http www climatescience gov and the National Academy of Sciences e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 11175#toc Similar issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that will be affected by future climate change • In social science research scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors affecting vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity As with the physical science data gaps research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decisionmaking abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important research factors are still unaccounted for given the current available data The early approach to carbon cycle modeling is a good example of this type of information gap The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain because modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal As a result the only factor modeled was deforestation the omission of terrestrial carbon exchange rendered the models inadequate Ecosystems research models are another example—they are only beginning to account for changes in pests populations such as the pine bark beetle • Social models have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of wellfunctioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies Since anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about human motivation intent and behavior is a serious shortcoming in these social models Overall research about climate change impacts on Southeast Asia has been undertaken in a piecemeal fashion discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications considered separately from physical effects This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energy-economic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Specific research and data gaps regarding climate change and adaptive capacity in Southeast Asia include the following • Wang et alcxxxix found that a suite of 11 GCMs used to simulate observed interannual rainfall variations had the poorest skill over the Southeast Asian portion of the domain The authors concluded that current GCM shortcomings in representing natural ENSO variability make it difficult to project changes in ENSO-related rainfall in Southeast Asia • Murdiyarsocxl summarized many of the difficulties of using GCMs and crop models to accurately simulate the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Southeast Asia He noted that GCMs cannot reliably predict changes in drought and storm frequencies which makes it impossible to model future crop yield changes • Luo and Lincxli noted that continued refinement of dynamic crop simulation models that can utilize GCM scenarios is needed The simulation models must be able to synthesize the range of possible crop impacts including CO2 fertilization temperature disease and changes in soil and water Four specific high-priority research needs were identified including assessment of the crop- and region-specific benefit of CO2 fertilization development of more integrated agricultural models which account for biophysical and socioeconomic factors inclusion of socioeconomic factors in the models and evaluation of the relative importance of climate variability versus changes in mean climate parameters • Sivakumar et alcxlii noted that it is necessary to understand potential crop responses to the range of possible climate scenarios Evaluation of future changes in crop yield associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as floods storms and droughts is particularly important Assessment of sustainability practices agricultural productivity changes in erosion degradation of soil quality and ecosystem health also need careful consideration • Rosensweig et alcxliii noted that improved observation networks are urgently needed in Southeast Asia in order to document the sensitivity of physical and biological systems to warming in the region • Burke et alcxliv noted a need for better information about the location of coral reefs and the threats to their survival • Kobayashicxlv noted that there is a need for detailed studies of the magnitude and extent of climate change impacts on urban settlements particularly in developing countries • Sia Sucxlvi noted that future climate change research must incorporate important weather factors such as relative humidity pressure and wind speed direction which can influence the effects of climate on disease outbreaks and associated morbidity and mortality rates • Pennycxlvii identified the need for comprehensive modeling that reflects increased snowmelt and monsoon rainfall to assess the implications for food security wetlands management and biodiversity in Southeast Asia • Preston et alcxlviii identified the need to include the potential for irreversible loss of large ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic in projections of global sea level rise Contributions from large ice sheets could rapidly increase global sea level with devastating impacts on the coastal and island nations of Southeast Asia 54 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Thanh et alcxlix identified research gaps with regard to land-ocean interactions and coastal impacts in Vietnam and upland countries Research needs include synchronization of research and applied scale data and greater public availability of data More detailed integrated and comprehensive investigations are required to obtain information on coastal nutrients pollutants material fluxes and coastal interaction processes that have been impacted by both human activities and climate change • Hanh and Furukawacl identified information gaps on sea level rise and coastal zone vulnerability in Vietnam • Mapalocli identified research gaps for evaluating climate change and sea level rise at Olango Island in the central Philippines Research needs include information on storm surge quantification of coral and sand extraction natural disaster impact data groundwater salinity and transmissibility data endangered species information assessment of the impacts of mangroves on sea grass beds and a detailed topographic map of the region 55 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views i Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm ii R Boer and A Faqih “Current and Future Rainfall Variability in Indonesia ” AIACC Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors Semi-Annual Report July to December 2003 http sedac ciesin columbia edu aiacc accessed April 8 2009 iii J A Church N J White R Coleman K Lambeck and J X Mitrovica “Estimates of regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period ” J Clim 17 2004 2609–2625 J A Church N J White and J R Hunter “Sea level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands ” Global Planet Change 53 no 3 2006 155–168 iv B Bhaskaran and J F B Mitchell “Simulated changes in Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation resulting from anthropogenic emissions ” Int J Climatol 18 1998 1455-1462 v Heiko Paeth Anja Scholten Petra Friederichs and Andreas Hense “Uncertainties in climate change prediction El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons ” Global and Planetary Change 60 2008 265-288 vi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm vii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp viii Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 ix Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 Thailand Meteorological Department The Climate of Thailand http www tmd go th en archive climateconditions php accessed April 15 2009 x Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications the-worldfactbook index html accessed April 24 2009 xi Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 xii Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climatology and Agrometeorology http kidlat pagasa dost gov ph cab main htm Accessed April 15 2009 xiii Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 xiv Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 xv Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications theworld-factbook index html accessed April 24 2009 xvi A M Jose L M Sosa and N A Cruz “Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 191-201 xvii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xviii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm xix Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC The IPCC Data Distribution Centre HadCM2 GCM Model Information http www ipcc-data org is92 hadcm2_info html accessed April 1 2009 xx Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC IPCC 4th Assessment Report 2007 Model UKMOHADCM3 http www ipcc-data org ar4 model-UKMO-HADCM3 html accessed April 1 2009 xxi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm 56 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxiii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxiv Filippo Giorgi Peter H Whetton Richard G Jones Jens H Christensen Linda O Mearns Bruce Hewitson Hans vonStorch Raquel Francisco and Chris Jack “Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings ” Geophysical Research Letters 28 no 17 2001 3317-3320 xxv R Boer and A Faqih “Current and Future Rainfall Variability in Indonesia ” AIACC Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors Semi-Annual Report July to December 2003 http sedac ciesin columbia edu aiacc accessed April 8 2009 xxvi M Lal and H Harasawa “Future Climate Change Scenarios for Asia Inferred from Selected Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models ” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79 2001 219-227 xxvii M Lal H Harasawa and K Takahashi “Future climate change and its impacts over small island states ” Clim Res 19 2002 179–192 xxviii M Lal and H Harasawa “Future Climate Change Scenarios for Asia Inferred from Selected Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models ” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79 2001 219-227 xxix Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xxx M Lal and H Harasawa “Future Climate Change Scenarios for Asia Inferred from Selected Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models ” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79 2001 219-227 xxxi M Lal H Harasawa and K Takahashi “Future climate change and its impacts over small island states ” Clim Res 19 2002 179–192 xxxii R Boer and A Faqih “Current and Future Rainfall Variability in Indonesia ” AIACC Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors Semi-Annual Report July to December 2003 http sedac ciesin columbia edu aiacc accessed April 8 2009 xxxiii Filippo Giorgi Peter H Whetton Richard G Jones Jens H Christensen Linda O Mearns Bruce Hewitson Hans vonStorch Raquel Francisco and Chris Jack “Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings ” Geophysical Research Letters 28 no 17 2001 3317-3320 xxxiv B Bhaskaran and J F B Mitchell “Simulated changes in Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation resulting from anthropogenic emissions ” Int J Climatol 18 1998 1455-1462 xxxv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm Heiko Paeth Anja Scholten Petra Friederichs and Andreas Hense “Uncertainties in climate change prediction El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons ” Global and Planetary Change 60 2008 265-288 xxxvi Heiko Paeth Anja Scholten Petra Friederichs and Andreas Hense “Uncertainties in climate change prediction El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons ” Global and Planetary Change 60 2008 265-288 xxxvii F Tao M Yokozawa Y Hayashi and E Lin “Terrestrial Water Cycle and the Impact of Climate Change ” Ambio 32 no 4 2003 295-301 xxxviii Nigel W Arnell “Climate change and global water resources ” Global Environmental Change 9 1999 S31S49 Nigel W Arnell “Climate change and global water resources SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios ” Global Environmental Change 14 2004 31-52 xxxix F Tao M Yokozawa Y Hayashi and E Lin “Terrestrial Water Cycle and the Impact of Climate Change ” Ambio 32 no 4 2003 295-301 xl Aida M Jose and Nathaniel A Cruz “Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines water resources ” Climate Research 12 1999 77-84 xli A M Jose L M Sosa and N A Cruz “Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 191-201 xlii Juan M Pulhin Rose Jane J Peras Rex Victor O Cruz Rodel D Lasco Florencia B Pulhin and Maricel A Tapia “Vulnerability of Communities to Climate Variability and Extremes Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in the Philippines AIACC Working Paper No 44 The International START Secretariat 2006 57 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xliii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xliv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xlv J A Church N J White R Coleman K Lambeck and J X Mitrovica “Estimates of regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period ” J Clim 17 2004 2609–2625 J A Church N J White and J R Hunter “Sea level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands ” Global Planet Change 53 no 3 2006 155–168 xlvi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm xlvii Reiner Wassmann Nguyen Xuan Hien Chu Thai Hoanh and To Phuc Tuong “Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production ” Climatic Change 66 2004 89-107 xlviii Nguyen Duy Khang Akihiko Kotera Toshihiro Sakamoto and Masayuki Yokozawa “Sensitivity of Salinity Intrusion to Sea Level Rise and River Flow Change in Vietnamese Mekong Delta – Impacts on Availability of Irrigation Water for Rice Cropping ” J Agric Meteorl 64 no 3 2008 167-176 xlix Reiner Wassmann Nguyen Xuan Hien Chu Thai Hoanh and To Phuc Tuong “Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production ” Climatic Change 66 2004 89-107 l Nguyen Duy Khang Akihiko Kotera Toshihiro Sakamoto and Masayuki Yokozawa “Sensitivity of Salinity Intrusion to Sea Level Rise and River Flow Change in Vietnamese Mekong Delta – Impacts on Availability of Irrigation Water for Rice Cropping ” J Agric Meteorl 64 no 3 2008 167-176 li Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lii J A Church N J White R Coleman K Lambeck and J X Mitrovica “Estimates of regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period ” J Clim 17 2004 2609–2625 J A Church N J White and J R Hunter “Sea level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands ” Global Planet Change 53 no 3 2006 155–168 liii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm liv Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lv E B Capili A C S Ibay and J R T Villarin “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Philippine Coasts ” Proceedings of the International Oceans 2005 Conference Washington D C USA September 9-23 2005 lvi Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lvii Pham Thi Thuy Hanh and Masahide Furukawa “Impact of sea level rise on coastal zone of Vietnam ” Bull Fac ScL Univ Ryukyus 84 2007 45-59 lviii Muh Aris Marfai and Lorenz King “Potential vulnerability implications of coastal inundation due to sea level rise for the coastal zone of Semarang city Indonesia ” Environ Geol 54 2008 1235-1245 lix Adianto P Simamora “Flood risk rises with sea levels ” The Jakarta Post January 25 2007 http www thejakartapost com news 2007 01 25 flood-risk-rises-sea-levels html lx Pham Thi Thuy Hanh and Masahide Furukawa “Impact of sea level rise on coastal zone of Vietnam ” Bull Fac ScL Univ Ryukyus 84 2007 45-59 lxi Jason P Ericson Charles J Vorosmarty S Lawrence Dingman Larry G Ward and Michel Meybeck “Effective sea-level rise and deltas Causes of change and human dimension implications ” Global and Planetary Change 50 2006 63-82 lxii Tran Duc Thanh Yoshiki Saito Dinh Van Huy Van Lap Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh Ta and Masaaki Tateishi “Regimes of human and climate impacts on coastal changes in Vietnam ” Reg Environ Change 4 2004 49-62 lxiii Arief Anshory Yusuf and Herminia Francisco “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia ” Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia EEPSEA January 2009 58 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxiv Kelvin S Rodolfo and Fernando P Siringan “Global sea-level rise is recognized but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay Philippines ” Disasters 30 no 1 2006 118-139 lxv Kelvin S Rodolfo and Fernando P Siringan “Global sea-level rise is recognized but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay Philippines ” Disasters 30 no 1 2006 118-139 lxvi Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxvii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxviii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxix G A Meehl “Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 203-213 lxx Benjamin L Preston Ramasamy Suppiah Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols “Climate Change in the Asia Pacific Region A Consultancy Report Prepared for the Climate Change and Development Roundtable” CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 2006 http www csiro au resources pfkd html lxxi Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxxii A Iglesias Lin Erda and C Rosenzweig “Climate change in Asia A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 13-27 Yanxia Zhao Chunyi Wang Shili Wang and Lourdes V Tibig “Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics ” Climatic Change 70 2005 73-116 lxxiii R D Buan A R Maglinao P P Evangelista and B G Pajuelas “Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines ” Water Air and Soil Production 92 1996 41-51 lxxiv R D Buan A R Maglinao P P Evangelista and B G Pajuelas “Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines ” Water Air and Soil Production 92 1996 41-51 lxxv Yanxia Zhao Chunyi Wang Shili Wang and Lourdes V Tibig “Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics ” Climatic Change 70 2005 73-116 lxxvi Shaobing Peng Jianliang Huang John E Sheehy Rebecca C Laza Romeo M Visperas Xuhua Zhong Grace S Centeno Gurdev S Khush and Kenneth G Cassman “Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming ” PNAS 101 no 27 2004 9971-9975 lxxvii R B Matthews M J Kropff T Horie and D Bachelet “Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia and Evaluating Options for Adaptation ” Agricultural Systems 54 no 3 1997 399-425 lxxviii R D Buan A R Maglinao P P Evangelista and B G Pajuelas “Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines ” Water Air and Soil Production 92 1996 41-51 lxxix Istiqlal Amien P Rejekiningrum A Pramudia and E Susanti “Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java Indonesia ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 29-39 lxxx Istiqlal Amien P Rejekiningrum A Pramudia and E Susanti “Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java Indonesia ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 29-39 lxxxi Istiqlal Amien Popi Redjekiningrum Budi Kartiwa and Woro Estiningtyas “Simulated rice yields as affected by interannual climate variability and possible climate change in Java ” Climate Research 12 1999 145-152 lxxxii Rosamond L Naylor David S Battisti Daniel J Vimont Walter P Falcon and Marshall B Burke “Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture ” PNAS 104 no 119 2007 77527757 lxxxiii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxxxiv F P Lansigan W L de los Santos and J O Coladilla “Argonomic impacts of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines ” Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 129-137 lxxxv I Amien P Rejekiningrum A Pramudia and E Susanti “Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java Indonesia ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 29-39 Istiqlal Amien Popi Redjekiningrum Budi Kartiwa and Woro Estiningtyas “Simulated rice yields as affected by interannual climate variability and possible climate change in Java ” Climate Research 12 1999 145-152 59 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views lxxxvi Ornanong Boonklong Mullica Jaroensutasinee and Krisandej Jaroensutasinee “Climate Change Affecting Mangosteen Production in Thailand ” Proceedings of the 5th WSEAS International Conference on Environment Ecosystems and Development Venice Italy November 20-22 2006 lxxxvii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxxxviii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp lxxxix D Taylor P Saksena P G Sanderson and K Kucera “Environmental change and rain forests on the Sunda shelf of Southeast Asia drought fire and the biological cooling of biodiversity hotspots ” Biodiversity and Conservation 8 1999 1159-1177 Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-ChangeSEA default asp xc Yanxia Zhao Chunyi Wang Shili Wang and Lourdes V Tibig “Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics ” Climatic Change 70 2005 73-116 xci Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp xcii Benjamin L Preston Ramasamy Suppiah Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols “Climate Change in the Asia Pacific Region A Consultancy Report Prepared for the Climate Change and Development Roundtable” CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 2006 http www csiro au resources pfkd html xciii K Boonpragob and J Santisirisomboon “Modeling potential changes of forest area in Thailand under climate change ” Water Air and Soil Pollution 92 1996 107-117 xciv Jarkko Koskela “Responses of gas exchange and growth in Merkus pine seedlings to expected climatic changes in Thailand ” Global Change Biology 7 2001 641-656 xcv Trevor H Booth Nguyen Hoang Nghia Miko U F Kirschbaum Clive Hackett and Tom Jovanovic “Assessing possible impacts of climate change on species important for forestry in Vietnam ” Climatic Change 41 1999 109126 xcvi Jay R Malcolm Chanran Liu Ronald P Neilson Lara Hansen and Lee Hannah “Global Warming and Extinctions of Endemic Species from Biodiversity Hotspots ” Conservation Biology 20 no 2 2006 538-548 xcvii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp xcviii Ramsar Secretariat “Wetland Values and Functions Climate Change Mitigation ” Gland Switzerland 2001 xcix Eric L Gilman Joanna Ellison Norman C Duke and Colin Field “Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options A review ” Aquatic Botany 89 2008 237-250 c Amuerfino Mapalo “Vulnerability assessment of major wetlands in the Asia-Pacific region to climate change and sea level rise Part 2 Vulnerability assessment of Olango Island to predicted climate change and sea level rise ” Supervising Scientist Report 149 Australian Department of the Environment Water Heritage and the Arts 2007 http www environment gov au ssd publications ssr pubs ssr149-part2 pdf ci E B Capili A C S Ibay and J R T Villarin “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Philippine Coasts ” Proceedings of the International Oceans 2005 Conference Washington D C USA September 9-23 2005 cii Tran Duc Thanh Yoshiki Saito Dinh Van Huy Van Lap Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh Ta and Masaaki Tateishi “Regimes of human and climate impacts on coastal changes in Vietnam ” Reg Environ Change 4 2004 49-62 ciii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp civ Lauretta Burke Elizabeth Selig and Mark Spalding “Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia ” World Resources Institute 2002 cv J Silverman B Lazar L Cao K Caldeira and J Erez “Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles ” Geophys Res Lett 36 2009 L05606 doi 10 1029 2008GL036282 cvi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm cvii Lauretta Burke Elizabeth Selig and Mark Spalding “Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia ” World Resources Institute 2002 cviii J Silverman B Lazar L Cao K Caldeira and J Erez “Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles ” Geophys Res Lett 36 2009 L05606 doi 10 1029 2008GL036282 60 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cix Thomas J Goreau Raymond L Haynes and Don McAllister “Regional patterns of sea surface temperature rise Implications for global ocean circulation change and the future of coral reefs and fisheries ” World Resource Review 17 no 3 2005 350-374 cx Lauretta Burke Elizabeth Selig and Mark Spalding “Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia ” World Resources Institute 2002 cxi Robert W Buddemeier Joan A Kleypas and Richard B Aronson “Coral Reefs Global Climate Change Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems ” Pew Center on Global Climate Change 2004 cxii J M Guinotte R W Buddemeier and J A Kleypas “Future coral reef habitat marginality temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin ” Coral Reefs 22 2003 551-558 cxiii Lauretta Burke Elizabeth Selig and Mark Spalding “Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia ” World Resources Institute 2002 cxiv Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp Glenn S Sia Su “Correlation of Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Metro Manila Philippines ” Ambio 37 no 4 2008 292-294 S Promprou M Jaroensutasinee and K Jaroensutasinee “Climatic factors affecting dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence in Southern Thailand ” Dengue Bull 29 2005 41–48 cxv Willem J M Martens Louis W Niessen Jan Rotmans Theo H Jetten and Anthony J McMichael “Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk ” Environmental Health Perspectives 103 1995 458-464 cxvi M J Hopp and J A Foley “Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability ” Climate Research 25 2003 85-94 cxvii Willem J M Martens Louis W Niessen Jan Rotmans Theo H Jetten and Anthony J McMichael “Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk ” Environmental Health Perspectives 103 1995 458-464 cxviii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp cxix Robert G Arnold David O Carpenter Donald Kirk David Koh Margaret-Ann Armour Mariano Cebrian Luis Cifuentes Mahmood Khwaja Bo Ling Irma Makalinao César Paz-y-Miño Genandrialine Peralta Rajendra Prasad Kirpal Singh Peter Sly Chiharu Tohyama Alistair Woodward Baoshan Zheng and Todd Maiden “Meeting Report Threats to Human Health and Environmental Sustainability in the Pacific Basin ” Environmental Health Perspectives 115 no 12 2007 1770-1775 cxx E B Capili A C S Ibay and J R T Villarin “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Philippine Coasts ” Proceedings of the International Oceans 2005 Conference Washington D C USA September 9-23 2005 cxxi Suchao Parkpoom and Gareth P Harrison “Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand ” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 23 no 3 2008 1441-1448 cxxii Malaysia Energy Center Pusat Tenaga Malaysia Energy Information Highlights Malaysia Energy Database and Information System Selangor Malaysia http medis ptm org my accessed April 28 2009 cxxiii Thomas J Goreau Raymond L Haynes and Don McAllister “Regional patterns of sea surface temperature rise Implications for global ocean circulation change and the future of coral reefs and fisheries ” World Resource Review 17 no 3 2005 350-374 cxxiv E B Capili A C S Ibay and J R T Villarin “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Philippine Coasts ” Proceedings of the International Oceans 2005 Conference Washington D C USA September 9-23 2005 Amuerfino Mapalo “Vulnerability assessment of major wetlands in the Asia-Pacific region to climate change and sea level rise Part 2 Vulnerability assessment of Olango Island to predicted climate change and sea level rise ” Supervising Scientist Report 149 Australian Department of the Environment Water Heritage and the Arts 2007 http www environment gov au ssd publications ssr pubs ssr149-part2 pdf cxxv Kelvin S Rodolfo and Fernando P Siringan “Global sea-level rise is recognized but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay Philippines ” Disasters 30 no 1 2006 118-139 cxxvi Asit K Biswas and K E Seetharam “Achieving Water Security for Asia ” Water Resources Development 24 no 1 2008 145-176 cxxvii Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp cxxviii Asit K Biswas and K E Seetharam “Achieving Water Security for Asia ” Water Resources Development 24 no 1 2008 145-176 61 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cxxix Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC “Glossary ” Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 cxxx G Yohe and R Tol “Indicators for social and economic coping capacity - moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity ” Global Environmental Change 12 2002 25-40 cxxxi E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press cxxxii Katrina M Allen “Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation local capacity-building in the Philippines ” Disasters 30 no 1 2006 81-101 cxxxiii Cynthia Rosenzweig David Karoly Marta Vicarelli Peter Neofotis Qigang Wu Gino Casassa Annette Menzel Terry L Root Nicole Estrella Bernard Seguin Piotr Tryjanowski Chunzhen Liu Samuel Rawlins and Anton Imeson “Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change ” Nature 453 2008 353-358 cxxxiv Robert G Arnold David O Carpenter Donald Kirk David Koh Margaret-Ann Armour Mariano Cebrian Luis Cifuentes Mahmood Khwaja Bo Ling Irma Makalinao César Paz-y-Miño Genandrialine Peralta Rajendra Prasad Kirpal Singh Peter Sly Chiharu Tohyama Alistair Woodward Baoshan Zheng and Todd Maiden “Meeting Report Threats to Human Health and Environmental Sustainability in the Pacific Basin ” Environmental Health Perspectives 115 no 12 2007 1770-1775 cxxxv Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp cxxxvi Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia A Regional Review April 2009 http www adb org Documents Books Economics-Climate-Change-SEA default asp cxxxvii Benjamin L Preston Ramasamy Suppiah Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols “Climate Change in the Asia Pacific Region A Consultancy Report Prepared for the Climate Change and Development Roundtable” CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 2006 http www csiro au resources pfkd html cxxxviii Arief Anshory Yusuf and Herminia Francisco “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia ” Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia EEPSEA January 2009 cxxxix B Wang I S Kang and J Y Lee “Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 GCMs ” J Clim 17 2004 803–818 cxl D Murdiyarso “Adaptation to climatic variability and change Asian perspectives on agriculture and food security ” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 61 2000 123-131 cxli Qunying Lou and Erda Lin “Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries The Asia-Pacific Region ” Climatic Change 43 1999 729-743 cxlii M V K Sivakumar H P Das and O Brunini “Impacts of the present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics ” Climatic Change 70 2005 31-72 cxliii Cynthia Rosenzweig David Karoly Marta Vicarelli Peter Neofotis Qigang Wu Gino Casassa Annette Menzel Terry L Root Nicole Estrella Bernard Seguin Piotr Tryjanowski Chunzhen Liu Samuel Rawlins and Anton Imeson “Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change ” Nature 453 2008 353-358 cxliv Lauretta Burke Elizabeth Selig and Mark Spalding “Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia ” World Resources Institute 2002 cxlv Hideyuki Kobayashi “Impact evaluation of sea level rise on Indonesian coastal cities ” Journal of Environment Engineering 10 2004 cxlvi Glenn S Sia Su “Correlation of Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Metro Manila Philippines ” Ambio 37 no 4 2008 292-294 cxlvii Dan Penny “The Mekong at Climatic Crossroads Lessons from the Geological Past ” Ambio 37 no 3 2008 164-169 cxlviii Benjamin L Preston Ramasamy Suppiah Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols “Climate Change in the Asia Pacific Region A Consultancy Report Prepared for the Climate Change and Development Roundtable” CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 2006 http www csiro au resources pfkd html cxlix Tran Duc Thanh Yoshiki Saito Dinh Van Huy Van Lap Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh Ta and Masaaki Tateishi “Regimes of human and climate impacts on coastal changes in Vietnam ” Reg Environ Change 4 2004 49-62 62 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views cl Pham Thi Thuy Hanh and Masahide Furukawa “Impact of sea level rise on coastal zone of Vietnam ” Bull Fac ScL Univ Ryukyus 84 2007 45-59 cli Amuerfino Mapalo “Vulnerability assessment of major wetlands in the Asia-Pacific region to climate change and sea level rise Part 2 Vulnerability assessment of Olango Island to predicted climate change and sea level rise ” Supervising Scientist Report 149 Australian Department of the Environment Water Heritage and the Arts 2007 http www environment gov au ssd publications ssr pubs ssr149-part2 pdf 63 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 64 This paper does not represent US Government views This page intentionally left blank This paper does not represent US Government views Mexico the Caribbean and Central America The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report Prepared By Joint Global Change Research Institute and Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest Division The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions NIC 2009-11D December 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research—such as this publication—explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security This assessment on the impact of Climate Change on Central America and the Caribbean through 2030 is part of the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on selected countries in Central America and the Caribbean It draws on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC assessment reports National Communications to the United Nations Framework UNFCCC on Climate Change statistical data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECLAC and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting It includes such impacts as sea level rise water availability agricultural shifts ecological disruptions and species extinctions infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events severity and frequency and disease patterns This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to impact of climate change The targeted time frame is to 2030 although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames This assessment also identifies Annex B deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impacts on Central America and the Caribbean and other countries regions 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary Mexico the countries of the Caribbean and Central America examined in this report are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years because they will be exposed to a greater range of climate changes and have a relatively weak adaptive capacity when compared to the world at large Within the region climate change is evident in increased temperatures changes in precipitation and sea level rise—and perhaps in weather variability and natural disaster events Countries in this report include Belize Cuba the Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua and Panama Puerto Rico is also discussed Steady increases within the region in the number of extreme weather events—hurricanes storms and droughts—and their effect on infrastructure public health loss of human life and agriculture may be attributable to climate change The countries reviewed do not yet have a full understanding of the potential impacts of future climatic changes and are not prepared to prevent or reduce those impacts Regional leaders are aware of these challenges and have begun to make commitments and agreements that will enhance their understanding of future climate change their own adaptive capacity and where critical changes and investments need to be made Leaders have not addressed the problem from a preventive perspective through policy changes or infrastructure investments because of a lack of systematic analysis that quantifies and qualifies the potential impact to the region allowing the development of relevant and economically viable options At present the region is still responding to climate change in a reactive manner • Regional leaders realize that leaving the situation “as is” will exacerbate their fragile economies resources and adaptive capacity but lack strategic plans to address the issue • Most countries in the region are signatories to many multilateral environmental agreements See Annex C but are only now beginning to implement such agreements • There are significant gaps in the ability to fully understand in a systemic way all the dimensions of climate change impacts at the economic social and or environmental level in the region There are gaps and deficiencies in data systematic methodologies analysis and tools to monitor share and track information and events at the local national and regional levels Efforts are starting to reduce systemic knowledge gaps There is insufficient funding by regional governments to undertake detailed modeling that would result in information to rank and evaluate the financial viability of potential climate change adaptation projects Several entities at the national and regional levels are working to develop improved analytical methods and information sharing as well as better data and data availability • In September 2008 the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECLAC announced that it would undertake multiple studies to review how climate change is affecting regional economies Currently the consensus is that climate change is likely to impose serious economic consequences for the Central American and Caribbean regions 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views making it increasingly difficult to respond to the challenges of poverty reduction higher human development and environmental sustainability linked to the attainment of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals • Upcoming studies by the ECLAC are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the economic impact of climate change in the region and will outline the costs and benefits of needed related policy responses both in terms of mitigation and adaptation In this report information available for a selected set of Mexico Caribbean and Central American countries has been reviewed to start understanding the projected climate change variability given certain scenarios to 2030 as well as to start an initial assessment of these countries’ current adaptive capacity to reduce such effects Very limited modeling and analysis are available for the countries of interest Because of that this initial analysis draws heavily on the respective Governments First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC These reports offer the most comprehensive and comparable information available today In the case of Mexico the Third Communication was used to review summary impacts This review however was primarily focused on improving inventories of greenhouse gases across all types and production of energy as well as the greenhouse gases generated by major economic activity This review identifies the following high-priority risks • Energy Energy resources production and use vary widely across the countries under review As all the countries experience population growth economic growth and industrialization they will increase their need and demand for energy All the countries under review rely on imported fossil fuels with the exception of Mexico which is a net exporter of energy resources In most of the countries the largest generator of greenhouse gases is the energy sector Although they are very small contributors to global emissions most of the countries will benefit from increasing use of renewable energy Most have begun efforts to evaluate and implement small renewable energy projects such as solar energy in rural areas of El Salvador wind energy in Nicaragua and Costa Rica and an intensive effort in Dominican Republic to evaluate hydro-generated electricity • A griculture The agricultural sector climate related research for most of the countries in this review is limited Where research is available productivity losses are projected for optimist moderate and pessimist scenarios for some key food crops with estimates that vary from 10 percent to more than 50 percent degradation by the year 2030 • W ater R esources The majority of the population in most of the countries reviewed lives in coastal areas which are highly vulnerable to severe climate changes As populations continue to grow in the same areas increasing water extraction and rising sea levels are expected to have severe impacts on the quantity and quality of water available Many of these countries’ aquifers are open to ocean waters and are already experiencing increased 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views salinity Rising sea levels will accelerate the deterioration of aquifers and available water resources • M igration In Central America an increase in intra-regional migration during the 1980s and 1990s as well as extra-regional migration was the result of social unrest and economic contraction Future patterns of migration are not expected to change significantly Moreover the inability of countries in the region to adapt and recover from severe climate events with major impacts on their economies will continue to promote migration outside the region in particular to the United States and Canada The large number of immigrants coming to the United States in the past 20-25 years will facilitate this movement Most of the countries under review have submitted their First Communication to the UNFCCC Mexico has submitted its third Significant work and analysis needs to be done to fully capture the impact on socio-economic systems and their current ability to recover adapt and reduce the effects of climate change The great variation of information available for each country reduces the ability to compare the full set of key indicators across all countries in a consistent manner 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 9 Current State of the Region 9 Economic Growth and Development 15 Energy Systems 16 Food Production and Drinking Water Supply 18 Human Health 23 Projected Regional Climate Change 23 Climate Observations 24 Climate Predictions Modeling 28 Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation 30 Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons 34 Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events 35 Impact of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems 35 Belize 36 Cuba 37 Dominican Republic 40 Guatemala 41 Haiti 46 Honduras 46 Mexico 49 Nicaragua 51 Panama 52 Adaptive Capacity 54 The Caribbean and Central American Region in a Global Context 54 Caribbean and Central American Countries Compared to Each Other 59 Key Contributors to Adaptive Capacity by Country 61 Conclusions 65 Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models 67 Annex B Information Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Central America the Caribbean and the Region’s Adaptive Capacity 69 Annex C Environmental Agreements Signed by Selected Latin American and Caribbean Countries 71 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background Current State of the Region Mexico islands in the Caribbean and the countries of Central America are vulnerable to climate change Principal components of this vulnerability include their extensive coastlines current economic dependence on agriculture the potential for storm damage scarcity of fresh water and limited capacity to adapt This report examines changes in the climate that can be expected the impacts of those changes on the region and on individual countries and the resources they can call upon to mitigate or adapt to those impacts The focus is on ten islands and countries 1 Belize Cuba the Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama and Puerto Rico i Figure 1 shows the area with the selected countries’ names in red Figure 1 The Central American and Caribbean region with study countries’ names in red Belize Belize borders the Caribbean Sea to the east Mexico to the north and Guatemala to the west and south Its total area is 22 966 km2 including 160 km2 of water The country is mostly a flat swampy coastal plain with low mountains in the southern portion It is subject to frequent 1 Other countries in this region such as Costa Rica El Salvador and Jamaica as well as Bermuda and other islands are mentioned in the report but not discussed in detail 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views hurricanes and coastal flooding Current environmental issues include deforestation water pollution and solid and sewage waste disposal Belize’s 2009 population is estimated at 308 000 growing at 2 percent annually 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 68 years Fifty percent of the population are Roman Catholic 27 percent Protestant 14 percent other religions and 9 percent claim no religion Gross Domestic Product GDP per capita is $8 600 US dollar USD equivalent 2008 estimate Cuba The Republic of Cuba is an island between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean Its total area is 110 860 km2 no areas of water Cuba’s terrain is mostly flat or rolling plains with hills and mountains in the southeast of the island It is subject to both hurricanes and droughts Current environmental issues are air and water pollution biodiversity loss and deforestation The 2009 population is estimated at 11 5 million with a growth rate of 0 2 percent annually Life expectancy at birth is 77 years Religions include Roman Catholicism Protestantism Jehovah’s Witnesses Judaism and Santeria GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated at $9 500 USD Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic occupies the eastern two-thirds of the island Hispaniola between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean Its area totals 48 730 km2 including 350 km2 of water In the Dominican Republic highlands and mountains are interspersed with fertile valleys The country experiences severe storms and hurricanes occasional flooding earthquakes and periodic droughts Current environmental issues include water shortages soil erosion and consequent coral reef damage and deforestation The 2009 population is estimated at 9 6 million with a growth rate of 1 5 percent annually 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 74 years Citizens are 95 percent Roman Catholic GDP per capita in 2008 was estimated at $8 100 USD Guatemala The Republic of Guatemala has two coasts on the Gulf of Honduras to the east and on the North Pacific Ocean to the south Guatemala borders Mexico and Belize to the north and Honduras and El Salvador to the south Its area totals 108 890 km2 including 460 km2 of water Its Caribbean coast is susceptible to hurricanes and severe storms The country is also subject to volcanic activity and earthquakes Current environmental issues include deforestation in the Peten rainforest soil erosion and water pollution Guatemala’s population in 2009 was estimated at about 13 million growing at a 2 percent per annum rate Life expectancy at birth is 70 years Religions include Roman Catholicism Protestantism and indigenous Mayan beliefs GDP per capita for 2008 was estimated at $5 200 USD Haiti The Republic of Haiti is located on the western third of the island Hispaniola east of the Dominican Republic and bordered by both the North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea Its area totals 27 750 km2 including 190 km2 of water The country is mostly rough and mountainous Haiti experiences hurricanes severe storms occasional flooding and earthquakes and periodic droughts Current environmental issues include radical deforestation soil erosion 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and inadequate potable water although coral reefs exist little is known about their condition ii Haiti’s population in 2009 was estimated at 9 million with an annual growth rate of 1 8 percent Life expectancy at birth is 61 years Citizens are 80 percent Roman Catholic 16 percent Protestant 3 percent other religions and 1 percent no religion Roughly half the population is reported to practice voodoo GDP per capita was estimated for 2008 at $1 300 USD Honduras The Republic of Honduras is bordered by the Caribbean Sea to the north Guatemala and El Salvador to the west the North Pacific Ocean to the southwest and Nicaragua to the south Its area totals 112 090 km2 including 200 km2 of water Honduras is mountainous in the interior with narrow coastal plains It experiences frequent but generally mild earthquakes as well as hurricanes and floods along its Caribbean coast Current environmental issues include deforestation land degradation soil erosion and water pollution by mining activities Honduras’ population was estimated at almost 8 million in 2009 with a growth rate of 2 percent 2009 estimate Life expectancy at birth is 69 years The population is 97 percent Roman Catholic and 3 percent Protestant GDP per capita was estimated at $4 400 USD for 2008 with extremely high inequality Mexico The United Mexican States constitute the southernmost country in North America bordered on the north by the United States to the east by the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea to the south by Belize and Guatemala and to the west and south by the North Pacific Ocean Mexico’s area totals 1 972 550 km2 including 49 510 km2 of water Its terrain is diverse high mountains low coastal plains high plateaus and desert It experiences tsunamis along the Pacific coast and hurricanes on all coasts as well as volcanic activity and earthquakes in the center and south Current environmental issues include inadequate waste disposal scarce natural fresh water resources and pollution in existing resources deforestation erosion desertification land degradation air pollution and land subsidence from groundwater depletion Mexico’s estimated population for 2009 is 111 million growing at an annual rate of 1 percent Life expectancy at birth is 76 years The population is 77 percent Roman Catholic 6 percent Protestant and 17 percent unspecified GDP per capita was estimated at $14 200 USD for 2008 Nicaragua The Republic of Nicaragua is situated between Honduras and Costa Rica to the north and south respectively and between the North Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea to the west and east respectively Its area totals 129 494 km2 including 9 240 km2 of water area Extensive Atlantic coastal plains rise to central interior mountains the narrow Pacific coastal plain has volcanoes Nicaragua experiences earthquakes volcanic activity landslides and hurricanes Current environmental issues include deforestation soil erosion and water pollution The population estimate for 2009 was about 6 million growing at an annual rate of 1 8 percent Life expectancy at birth is 69 years Citizens are 59 percent Roman Catholic 22 percent Evangelical 1 6 percent Moravian 1 percent Jehovah’s Witnesses and 16 percent no religion GDP per capita was estimated for 2008 at $2 900 USD 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Panama The Republic of Panama is located on the isthmus between North America and South America bordered by the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean The southernmost country of Central America Panama sits between Costa Rica and Columbia Its total area is 78 200 km2 of which 2 210 km2 are water In its center is a line of mountains with plains and rolling hills in the coastal areas Toward Columbia is dense jungle which combined with forest protections causes a break in the Pan American Highway this area is subject to occasional severe storms and forest fires In its center is the Panama Canal Current environmental issues include agricultural runoff that pollutes water and threatens fisheries deforestation land degradation and soil erosion with resulting siltation of the Panama Canal urban air pollution and environmental degradation caused by extensive mining The 2009 estimated population is 3 3 million growing at 1 5 percent annually Life expectancy at birth is approximately 77 years The population is 85 percent Roman Catholic 15 percent Protestant The service sector is 80 percent of Panama’s economy per capita GDP is $11 600 USD 2008 estimate The country’s growth rate has been above 8 percent in recent years but both the unemployment rate and inequality in per capita GDP are high Puerto Rico The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico a self-governing territory of the United States consists of several islands situated east of the Dominican Republic and west of the Virgin Islands Its area is 13 790 km2 including 4 900 km2 of water The main island Puerto Rico is mostly mountainous but has large coastal areas both in the north and in the south As all the countries covered in this report Puerto Rico is subject to hurricanes Current environmental issues include erosion and occasional droughts with accompanying water shortages Its population numbers about 4 million 2009 estimate with a growth rate of 0 3 percent Life expectancy is 79 years Roman Catholicism dominates 85 percent but Protestant Jewish indigenous and African religions are also espoused Puerto Rico’s per capita GDP is $17 800 USD 2008 estimate and economic activities are largely services and industry 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Emissions Latin America the Caribbean Central and South America is responsible for only a small fraction of global carbon emissions Figure 2 Within the Latin American and Caribbean region Meso-America—typically thought of as covering some of Mexico south to Honduras and Nicaragua—represents half of the carbon dioxide emissions of Latin America and the Caribbean accounts for less than 15 percent Figure 3 This figure illustrates the wide variation of carbon dioxide CO2 emissions in the region The highest and most quickly increasing—40 percent between 1990 and 2000—amount comes from South America while the lowest and relatively more slowly rising amount comes from the Caribbean Although the region is a very small contributor to total worldwide carbon dioxide emissions the impacts of climate change in this region are already being felt Temperature increases in the atmosphere and sea instability in rainfall and rising sea levels are affecting food production infrastructure livelihood and the health of populations Extreme weather events droughts hurricanes floods etc have added more stress on an already weakened environment and further eroded the ability of the environment to mitigate their harmful effects Figure 2 Relative CO2 emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean Source United Nations Environment Program “Vital Climate Graphics for Latin America and the Caribbean ” UNEP 2003 http www grida no publications vg lac 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 3 Regional differences in CO2 emissions Source United Nations Environment Program UNEP “Vital Climate Graphics for Latin America and the Caribbean ” 2003 http www grida no publications vg lac Economic growth and emissions have moved roughly in the same direction As developing economies continue urbanization and industrialization the risk of growing emissions increases because of energy use mix and the inability of economies to become more energy efficient In the region under evaluation there has been a wide variety of energy intensity of GDP over the past 37 years Most of the countries have become more energy efficient with the exception of Haiti and Nicaragua two of the lowest-performing countries by many measures These two countries have gone through many years of political unrest resulting in economic contraction capital flight migration of the best human capital and inefficiencies at every level of economic activity see Table 1 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Country Costa Rica Cuba Guatemala Haití Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Dominican Republic Panama Latin America and the Caribbean 1970 1 61 2 83 3 75 3 85 1 14 2 38 2 41 1 40 1 59 1980 1 36 2 38 3 13 3 18 1 20 2 99 1 65 1 29 1 47 1990 1 33 2 64 2 71 2 42 3 24 1 31 3 76 1 47 1 21 1 60 2000 2007 1 06 1 17 1 99 1 86 2 68 2 32 3 43 4 58 2 78 2 64 1 13 1 08 3 88 4 31 1 66 1 17 1 17 1 42 1 53 1 46 Table 1 Energy Intensity of Gross Domestic Product 2000 Prices 100 in thousands of barrels of oil equivalent for US $1 M of GDP Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Economic Growth and Development Central America Mexico and the Caribbean countries all continue to experience population growth albeit at different rates leading to an increase in food demand Most of the countries in these regions depend greatly on agricultural production Variations in crop yields food crops and cash crops present major food security challenges Since 1990 the countries in the region have experienced large disparities GDP Some have suffered from economic contraction due to political unrest capital flight migration of the bettereducated segment of the population and the loss of foreign investments Examples include Guatemala El Salvador Nicaragua and Haiti from the late 1970s through the 1990s The sociopolitical challenges of the 1980s and increases in extreme weather events in the 1990s hurt the fragile economies of the region The absence of a strong legal foundation has also greatly reduced the opportunity for recovery El Salvador Guatemala and Nicaragua were directly affected by insurgencies and increased weather-related natural disasters At the same time neighboring countries had to cope with an increase in refugees because of the difficulties associated with war and natural disasters All these countries have been severely affected by hurricanes floods and tropical storms in the past two decades Regional GDP has shown the effects of all these events through wide fluctuations from one year to the next see Figure 4 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 4 Rate of Change in Gross Domestic Product GDP 1990-2008 Data for Haiti and the Dominican Republic are not included Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Energy Systems The countries in the region selected for evaluation have mostly fossil fuel-based economies and are mostly net importers of energy Since 1984 they have continued to increase their overall energy consumption Except Mexico primary and secondary energy production has remained below total annual consumption Figure 5 Primary energy production is the production of energy found in its natural state—wood natural gas bagasse 2 and hydroelectricity It also includes the amount of fuel extracted and the energy consumed in the production process and the supply to energy producers and conversion Secondary energy production is derived from the conversion of primary energy products Petroleum for example is refined into kerosene and diesel 2 Sugarcane fiber left over after juice extraction 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 5 Primary and Secondary Energy Production by Country and Regions Note no data for Belize and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 As economies industrialize most countries in this review will remain highly vulnerable to the fluctuations in the cost of oil Mexico is the only country in the group that is a net exporter of energy resources all others in this study are net importers of petroleum-based products During the 1990-2007 time period regional energy consumption increased 158 percent in Costa Rica Nicaragua and Dominican Republic it increased about 200 percent and in Panama by 288 percent Energy consumption is expected to increase as population and economies continue to grow Figures 6 and 7 illustrate total energy consumption and total energy supply by country 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and type respectively Note that energy supply information is not available for the same time period as that for energy consumption Energy supply composition across the countries reviewed remains predominantly based on petroleum except for Haiti Nicaragua and Honduras These three countries had the lowest annual GDP growth rates within the group from 1990 to 2007 On the other hand Costa Rica Cuba Panama and Dominican Republic have the largest shares of oil-based energy and experienced the largest annual GDP growth rates As noted earlier all countries except Mexico are net importers of petroleum-based products In the Dominican Republic oil-based energy supply remains significant and accounted for 74 percent of total energy in 2005 and 79 percent in 2002 The island nations of Cuba Puerto Rico Haiti and the Dominican Republic remain particularly vulnerable to supply of petroleum-based energy products since they must be brought by ship to the islands for refining and processing Hydroenergy plays a significant role only in Costa Rica where it accounted for 18-24 percent of supply for the other countries it ranged from 0 1 to 9 8 percent for Cuba and Panama respectively Food Production and Drinking Water Supply Central America the Caribbean and Mexico have economies with significant agricultural sectors though agricultural land use as part of total land area varies widely In Belize only six percent of the total land area was devoted to agriculture in 2005 reflecting the fact that over 50 percent of GDP comes from the services industry particularly tourism The comparable figure for the Dominican Republic was 70 percent Costa Rica and Haiti 57 percent Cuba 60 percent and Mexico 55 percent Figure 8 All the countries reviewed have maintained relatively stable ratios of agricultural land use to total land area for the past 27 years 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 6 Consumption by country Note no data for Belize and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Figure 7 Energy supply by type 2002-2005 Note no data for Belize and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 8 Agricultural area and total land area by country in hectares Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Although the areas dedicated to agricultural activity and food production are significant in almost all the countries studied a large portion of the population lives in poverty and struggles to survive Table 2 shows the percentage of the population living in poverty and extreme poverty Those with income amounting to less than twice the cost of a basic food basket3 are considered to be living in poverty Those with income amounting to less than the cost of a basic food basket are considered to be living in extreme poverty Costa Rica and Panama are the only two countries of those for which we have information that have less than 20 percent in poverty and no more than 5 percent in extreme poverty Figure 9 shows the Consumer Price Index CPI — the change in the cost of the food basket—with the base year of 2000 3 The food basket is a concept used in poverty measurement it differs in components by country or region according to local diets and availability but must provide adequate calories and protein Traditionally a food basket has represented the minimum food items required for a family over a one-month period 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views POOR AND INDIGENT POPULATION URBAN AND RURAL AREAS Percentage of total population Poverty Rural Country Years Total Urban Rest 1998 49 1 Guatemala 2002 45 3 2006 42 0 1994 74 5 68 7 80 4 Honduras 1999 71 7 64 4 78 8 2007 59 9 47 8 64 0 1994 36 8 Mexico 2000 32 3 2006 26 8 1993 66 3 58 3 73 0 Nicaragua 2001 63 8 50 8 72 1 2005 54 4 48 7 58 1 1994 25 3 Panama 1999 20 8 2007 18 7 2002 42 4 Dominican Republic 2006 41 8 2007 43 0 1994 38 7 Latin America 2000 35 9 2007 28 9 Data not available for Cuba Belize Haiti and Puerto Rico Total 69 0 68 0 66 5 80 5 86 3 78 8 56 5 54 7 40 1 82 7 77 0 71 5 46 6 55 9 49 5 47 3 65 1 62 5 52 1 Urban 16 0 18 1 14 8 46 0 42 9 26 2 9 0 6 6 4 4 36 8 33 4 20 8 7 8 5 9 5 0 16 5 18 5 19 0 13 6 11 7 8 1 Extreme poverty Rural Rest 38 3 53 7 33 7 51 9 18 0 32 5 29 5 43 0 24 5 39 1 16 4 23 7 41 8 37 6 42 2 59 8 68 0 61 7 27 5 28 5 16 1 62 8 55 1 46 1 24 1 28 6 28 5 24 6 40 8 37 8 28 1 Table 2 Percentage of total population living in poverty by country Note no data for Belize Cuba Haiti and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 The countries under review have experienced a steady increase in CPI that has translated into reduced access to the basic food basket By 2008 Haiti had the highest Index 350 followed by the Dominican Republic 290 Nicaragua 202 and Honduras 188 These countries also have been affected by severe climate variations since the 1990s and highly variable inflation rates Although food production indexes have remained positive Figure 10 in Nicaragua Honduras and Guatemala a significant portion of the population has experienced a steady decline in access to food because of reduced purchasing power 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 9 Consumer Price Index by Country 2000 100 Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Figure 10 Food Production Indexes by Country Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Table 3 shows the extent to which six countries provided their citizens with basic services such as drinking water sanitation and electricity Drinking water across the selected countries varies significantly between urban areas and rural areas In 2007 Costa Rica had drinking water supply services available for 99 2 percent of total urban dwellings and 88 5 percent of total rural dwellings The respective figures in Guatemala were 90 percent and 60 percent and in the Dominican Republic 80 6 and 55 4 percent Among the countries that provided information Nicaragua has the lowest percentage of population with available basic services Human Health Since 1990 the region has experienced a series of re-emerging diseases following such severe climatic events as floods hurricanes and droughts Evidence points to increases in several communicable diseases such as dengue malaria Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and the reemergence of a large host of infectious diseases following years in which there were El Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO events Country Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Dominican Republic Area Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Piped water 1995 c 2007 c 95 2 99 6 88 5 63 6 76 3 89 6 90 0 43 6 60 6 70 7 82 5 80 6 93 6 62 1 71 8 84 3 94 1 67 9 61 0 86 0 27 0 70 1 71 9 82 8 80 6 48 1 55 4 Excreta disposal system 1995 c 2007 c 25 6 39 3 5 0 32 6 40 3 73 3 68 4 1 4 7 6 26 8 33 0 51 5 62 9 5 6 4 1 60 8 73 5 81 7 90 0 25 8 42 1 61 1 26 4 56 7 21 1 67 0 33 9 19 8 23 2 30 5 32 3 1 2 5 8 Electric lighting 1995 c 64 1 91 2 43 4 55 3 86 1 28 9 95 9 99 3 90 5 69 3 90 8 40 6 88 5 2007 c 99 1 99 8 98 0 81 8 93 7 68 0 73 9 97 9 50 7 98 5 99 7 96 1 73 9 95 5 43 7 100 0 68 6 Table 3 Basic services supplied in six countries Note no data for Belize Haiti Panama and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Projected Regional Climate Change Central American and Caribbean countries span the tropics and the subtropics and include continental land masses island chains and mountain ranges of varying orientations and elevations iii The general climate of the region is described as dry winter wet summer The temperature range within the region is small due to its maritime tropical characteristics except for the mountainous areas where temperatures are modulated by changes in altitude 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Rainfall intensity and timing determines the climate classification and the meteorological features of the climate in the region The topography of countries with significant mountains can influence variations in annual rainfall the timing of peak rainfall and the length of the rainy season Windward slopes of the larger mountainous islands tend to have the highest amounts of rainfall The continental landmass of Central America lies between two oceans and contains some of the most diverse coastal and marine ecosystems in the world Tropical forests particularly in Costa Rica are a significant sink for greenhouse gases and are of great value to countries interested in gaining credits under trading mechanisms such as those specified in the Kyoto protocol to the UNFCCC 4 The Caribbean experiences a wet season from May through October and a dry season from November through April During late July or early August a short-lived dry period may occur In the winter and early summer the occasional intrusion of a mid-latitude polar front can influence weather patterns by bringing cool moist air to the region Tropical storms and hurricanes are a perennial feature of the Caribbean The official hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 The phase of the ENSO influences the likelihood of hurricane formation in the Atlantic During El Niño the ENSO warm phase the formation of tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic is inhibited Alternately during La Niña the ENSO cold phase the formation of hurricanes is enhanced The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO is another important natural influence on air temperatures precipitation levels and storm activity in the Caribbean The AMO has cool and warm phases each lasting several decades The phase of the AMO also plays a role in suppressing tropical storm formation The AMO and ENSO are several features of the Caribbean climate that can complicate the observations of temperature and precipitation trends Climate Observations Evidence of intensified climate variability can be seen in multiple key economic social and environmental indicators A review of regional natural disasters that are weather-related demonstrates that the frequency and impact of severe events has steadily increased in both number and affected population Since 1990 the Central American and Caribbean region has experienced a steady rise in the number of people affected by severe events - floods hurricanes and storms Table 4 The increase has occurred because most urban centers are located in the coastal areas In 1998 Hurricane Mitch was one of six hurricanes that caused significant damage in the region The countries affected still have not fully recovered from the disaster In Honduras at least 90 4 For more information on trading mechanisms specified in the Kyoto protocol please see http unfccc int kyoto_protocol items 2830 php 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views percent of the population was without water in Nicaragua 32 percent of the water infrastructure was damaged and in Guatemala the water and sewage systems in 396 communities were damaged and 20 000 latrines destroyed The Central American and Caribbean regions have followed the global trend of warming surface temperatures that the rest of the world has experienced Some experts believe a warming climate may contribute to an increase in frequency and intensity of the ENSO phenomenon Warmer-than-average temperatures in the Pacific around the equator reduce the normal difference in the sea surface temperature between the Pacific’s eastern and western sides affecting wind patterns At the same time the warmer waters move toward the east along the equator while the weakened trade winds reduce the equatorial Pacific’s capacity to absorb cold water thus consolidating the temperature anomaly This affects the patterns that warm the atmosphere It also affects wind direction sea currents and storm patterns iv In Central America ENSO leads to excessive rainfall along the coast of the Atlantic Ocean while the Pacific coast remains dry The effects of ENSO have caused large increases in rainfall in some areas and extended droughts in others There was a high incidence of hurricanes and tropical storms in 1998 which was a key year for ENSO effects in the warming of ocean surface water Figure 11 shows climate impacts and the areas affected by above-normal surface ocean temperature in Mexico Central America and South America during 1998 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Table 4 Climate-related natural disasters in Latin America and Caribbean Region 1990–2006 Note Latin American includes South America as well as Central America Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 11 Impact of El Niño in Latin America and the Caribbean Source United Nations Environment Program “Vital Climate Graphics for Latin America and the Caribbean ” UNEP 2003 http www grida no publications vg lac page 2753 aspx Shortcomings in the frequency and quality of past climate data in the region present a problem in accurately assessing trends In 2001 a workshop was held to develop climate indices for the Caribbean region v At that time the region had significant problems in digitizing and developing quality assurance methods for daily weather data Jamaica was the only country in the region to have developed a digital archive and that was lost in a fire in 1992 Data from 30 stations were used during the 2001 exercise primarily stations in the Caribbean islands with one coastal Florida station and 4 stations from Belize The results showed that over the last few decades the number of very warm days and nights has dramatically increased and the number of very cool days and nights has decreased The maximum number of consecutive dry days has also decreased but the number of heavy rainfall events has increased 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The 1998 IPCCvi assessment reported that on average the Caribbean islands experienced an increase in temperature exceeding 0 5°C from the year 1900 until the time of the report Over the same period there had been a significant increase in rainfall variability with mean annual total rainfall declining by approximately 250 mm However the decreasing rainfall trend was not significant The most recent IPCC assessmentvii reports that air temperatures in the Caribbean have been increasing by as much as 0 1°C per decade and sea levels have been increasing by approximately 2 mm per year over the last few decades Data show that there is currently a significant drying trend in the Caribbean and CentralAmerican viii These include a satellite estimate since 1979 and several land-based observational data sets A multi-model ensemble mean prediction of precipitation change in the region suggests this drying trend is likely to continue Intermodel agreement on the amplitude of the drying trend yields median amplitude of between 0 5 and 1 mm per day per 100 years over most of the region In the Commonwealth of the Bahamas the data show that mean daily maximum temperatures for July have increased at the rate of 3 6ºF 2°C per 100 years and more recently at the rate of 4 8ºF 2 6°C per 100 years ix Sea level rise is expected to occur at a rate of 0 06 inches 1 5 mm per year with a sea level rise of about 8 inches 20 cm by 2060 Observations taken in neighboring islands suggest that rises of 6 to 10 inches 15 2 to 25 4 cm per 100 years can be expected x Ecological changes in Central American have substantiated the influence of climate change For example vegetation changes have been observed in the tropical montane cloud forests of Costa Rica The changes suggest that atmospheric warming has raised the average altitude of the base of the orographic cloud bank during the dry season xi Changes in populations of birds lizards and anurans5 all reflect a broad response to regional climate change that includes widespread amphibian extinctions in remote highland forests Climate Predictions Modeling Although Global Circulation or Climate Models GCMs can be used to infer climate changes in specific regions it is far preferable to develop models that have a resolution sufficient to resolve local and regional scale changes There are many challenges in reliably simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at regional and local scales At these scales it is hard to identify long-term changes expected from external forcings because of the large natural climate variability The procedure of estimating the response at local scales based on results predicted at larger scales is known as “downscaling ” The two main methods for deriving information about the local climate are 1 dynamical downscaling also referred to as “nested modeling” using 5 An order of animals in the class Amphibia that includes frogs and toads 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views “regional climate models” or “limited area models” and 2 statistical downscaling also referred to as “empirical” or “statistical-empirical” downscaling Chemical composition models include the emission of gases and particles as inputs and simulate their chemical interactions global transport by winds and removal by rain snow and deposition to the earth’s surface Downscaled regional climate models rely on global models to provide boundary conditions and the radiative effect of well-mixed greenhouse gases for the region to be modeled There are three primary approaches to numerical downscaling 1 limited-area models 2 stretched-grid models and 3 uniformly high resolution atmospheric GCMs AGCMs or coupled atmosphereocean -sea ice GCMs AOGCMs GCMs simulate changes in climate under scenarios of future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions The 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES xii laid out the four basic scenario families used by IPCC scientists to predict future climate change they are summarized in Table 5 This set of scenarios is designed to represent the range of possible future global conditions that will influence greenhouse gas emissions The scenarios are based on consistent and reproducible assumptions about global forces that affect greenhouse gas emissions including economic development population and technological change Emission Scenario Economic Development Global Population Technology Changes A1 Very rapid Peaks around mid21st century and declines thereafter Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies A2 Regionally oriented Continuously increasing Slower and more fragmented than A1 B1 and B2 B1 Rapid change toward service and information economy B2 Intermediate levels of economic development Same as A1 Continuously increasing but not as fast as A2 Introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies Less rapid and more diverse changes than A1 and B1 Theme Convergence among regions increased cultural and social interactions Self-reliance and preservation of local identities Global solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability Local solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability Table 5 Summary of IPCC emissions scenarios Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm The magnitudes and patterns of the projected rainfall changes differ significantly among models probably due to their coarse resolution The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are strongly influenced by natural variability occurring at 10-year intervals but the Indian Ocean appears to be exhibiting a steady warming Natural variability from ENSO for example in ocean29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views atmosphere dynamics can lead to important differences in regional rates of surface-ocean warming that affect the atmospheric circulation and hence warming over land surfaces Including sulfate aerosols in the models dampens the regional climate sensitivity but greenhouse warming still dominates the changes Models that include emissions of short-lived radiatively active gases and particles suggest that future climate changes could significantly increase maximum ozone levels in already polluted regions Projected growth of emissions of radiatively active gases and particles in the models suggest that they may significantly influence the climate even to 2100 Stabilization emissions scenarios assume future emissions based on an internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces such as population socioeconomic development and technological change and their key relationships These emissions are constrained so that the resulting atmospheric concentrations of the substance level off at a predetermined value in the future For example if one assumes global CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 450 parts per million ppm the current value is about 380 ppm the climate models can be tuned to produce this result The tuned model predictions for regional climate changes can be used to assess specific impacts at this stabilization level A more detailed discussion of the ability of the models to project regional climate changes can be found in Annex A Climate Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation The most recent IPCC reportxiii states that the small islands of the Caribbean will probably experience a warming over the next century that may be somewhat smaller than the global annual mean warming Temperature increases in the Caribbean at the end of the 21st century are projected to range from 1 4°C to 3 2°C with a median of 2 0°C This level of warming is still likely to lead to significant sea level rise deterioration of coastal areas erosion of beaches and increased invasion of non-native species Reduced water resources could lead to an inadequacy of fresh water to meet demand during low-rainfall periods The amount of sea level rise is not expected to be uniform because of the geographical differences in the islands Extensive geographical topographical ecological sociological and population density information gathered into a detailed geographic information system GIS would be required before any predictions could be made Figure 12a shows the monthly changes projected for temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099 in the Caribbean as reported by the IPCC xiv Temperatures appear to change very little by month unlike changes in precipitation Most models predict changes in annual precipitation varying from –39 to 11 percent with a median of –12 percent xv Some regions are projected to have a slight increase in precipitation in December January and February Figures 13b and 14 while a decrease is projected in June July and August 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 12a Monthly temperature change ºC from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099 Caribbean CAR Thick lines represent the median of the 21 climate models used in the dataset The dark grey area represents the 25 percent and 75 percent quartile values among the 21 models while the light grey area shows the total range of the models Source J C and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 Figure 12b As in 12a but for precipitation change % 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 13 Projected precipitation changes over the Caribbean Top row Annual mean December January February and June July August fractional precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 averaged over the 21 climate models Bottom row number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation Source J C and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 Projections of decreasing precipitation in Central America and the Caribbean agree with projections of a general drying in the subtropical Atlantic associated with a phase shift to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Increases in sea surface temperatures SSTs are of primary concern because of the relationship of SSTs to storm intensities A projected climatological analysis of the Caribbean from 2041 to 2058 using a Parallel Climate Model PCM and National Center for Environmental Prediction NCEP reanalysis data showed a future warming of around 1°C SSTs along with an increase in the rain production during the Caribbean wet seasons Although the PCM appears to under-predict SSTs projected changes in feedback processes of cloud formation and solar radiative interactions lead to changes in projected rainfall variability and conditions that may be favorable for increases in tropical storm frequency xvi The IPCC projects a mean warming in Central America between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 to vary from 1 8°C to 5 0°C with half of the models projecting a range of 2 6°C to 3 6°C and a median of 3 2°C Figure 14 There is a seasonal difference of around 1°C in the median values between winter December January and February and spring March April and May As projected for the Caribbean Central America is likely to experience a decrease in rainfall in the future Precipitation changes for Central America are shown in Figure 15 The UK Hadley Centre PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional model was used to study climate change in Central America xvii The researchers found that 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views interactions between regional atmospheric circulation patterns trade winds and the region’s complex topography not only define different precipitation regimes for the Caribbean basin windward and the Pacific basin leeward but also modify the annual cycle of precipitation Assuming a doubled CO2 environment preliminary findings revealed that precipitation change in the future is very different on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of Central America and is also a function of elevation The Atlantic side not only experiences a reduction in precipitation throughout the year but also sees a change in the shape of the annual cycle where the MidSummer Drought feature seems to disappear High elevation regions were shown to have an even greater reduction in precipitation compared to lowlands This variability in the rainy season is very important for planning in key sectors such as agriculture and power generation that are at the heart of the region’s economy The same model was applied to Costa Ricaxviii where cloud formation at high elevations is a primary source of moisture Research indicates rising temperatures can cause clouds to form at higher altitudes having a drying effect on areas below These changes are expected to degrade the viability of numerous biological species in the area Figure 14 Temperature anomalies for Central America with respect to 1901 to 1950 for 1906 to 2005 black line and as simulated red envelope by models for 2001 to 2100 The bars at the end of the orange envelope represent the range of projected changes for 2091 to 2100 for various scenarios Source J H Christensen and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 15 Temperature and precipitation changes over Central and South America Top row Annual mean Dec Jan Feb and Jun Jul Aug temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 averaged over 21 models Middle row same as top but for fractional change in precipitation Source J C and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 In 2003 the Hadley Center ran its climate change model using the scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES xix The Center concluded that the nominal warming predicted for all scenarios is similar over the next 40 years even though each scenario represents a significant difference in level of emissions This is explained by the long life of atmospheric CO2 and the inertia of the climate system from emissions at the time of the study The Center also concluded that the climate outcome for the second part of the 21st century will depend on the level of emissions in the next few decades The model predicts precipitation changes in Central America and the Caribbean of up to -24 mm between present day and 2080s for the SRES A1B scenario The important message from this modeling and analysis is that there is significant need to track monitor and mitigate the effects of rising temperatures and climate change at a country-by-country level Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons Central America is likely to continue converting forests for agricultural use However the general projected drying trend in the area is likely to limit the agricultural crops that can be grown Projected temperature changes may not differ much by season but changes in rainfall likely will The result will be extended periods of drought and possible loss of soil fertility during the peak growing season in June July and August 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Also threatening agricultural productivity is the possible salinization of ground water supplies due to climate change and sea-level rise Many Central American and Caribbean countries have major fishing industries Climate change is likely to lead to changes in migration patterns and depth of fish stocks thereby hurting the fishing industry Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events While increasing sea surface temperatures are linked to increasing storm intensities natural variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system also plays a major role in hurricane variability However even considering the influence of natural variability there has been a significant increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970 xx During the 2005 hurricane season SSTs across the tropical Atlantic were 0 9°C above the 1901-1970 average xxi A recent study attempted to separate out the fraction of SST increase due to greenhouse-gas-driven climate change from that due to natural variations xxii Results suggested that 0 45°C of the temperature increase in SST was due to global warming El Niño accounted for about 0 2°C the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO explained less than 0 1°C and year-to-year variability in temperatures explained the rest This study contends that hurricane seasons will become more active as global temperatures rise At the same time however there is still a great deal of debate in the scientific community regarding recent and future trends in hurricane frequency and intensity Impact by Country of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems This section examines the impact country-by-country relying principally on insights provided in the submissions National Communications of the countries to the IPCC Text boxes are included to highlight case studies and to include Puerto Rico in the discussion The submissions of countries to the UNFCCC provide national-level analyses driven by climate change scenarios These submissions represent both high-quality scientific research and a degree of comparability not available in more local-level studies which are few with the exception of Mexico Most of the impacts and vulnerability studies reviewed here use the IS92 scenarios xxiii These scenarios six alternatives IS92a-f were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report to the IPCC Assessment The scenarios showed the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions over time given assumptions about population and affluence All of them assumed that no special policies to respond to climate change had been adopted The resulting range of possible greenhouse gas futures spans almost an order of magnitude Data came mostly from the published forecasts of major international organizations or from published expert analyses IS92a has been widely used in impact assessments and assumes global population rises to 11 3 billion by 2100 and annual economic growth averages 2 3 percent between 1990 and 2100 Both conventional and renewable energy sources are used The IS92e scenario has the highest greenhouse gas emissions with moderate population growth high economic growth high fossil fuel availability and eventual phase-out of nuclear power The IS92c scenario on the other hand has CO2 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views emissions eventually falling below their 1990 starting level with population first growing and then declining low economic growth and severe constraints on fossil fuel supply Belize The Government of Belize completed its First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCCxxiv in July 2002 The overarching conclusion of this first assessment is that the country’s economy is highly dependent on a stable climate for successful agriculture fishery timber and tourism industries More than 50 percent of the country’s GDP comes from the services industries where tourism plays a critical role The country considers this assessment to be an initial effort to understand the role that Belize plays in the generation of greenhouse gas emissions its adaptive capacity the impact climate change variability will have on all economic sectors and its human development goals The government concedes much work is needed to understand the full impact and adaptability options The Minister of Natural Resources Environment Commerce and Industry stated the following “Belize is prepared to continue working with the international community to negotiate responsibly for strong achievable and enforceable mechanisms that will control the emissions of greenhouse gases We are also prepared to utilize the nation’s natural resources to assist in the global effort to mitigate the emissions as long as the measures can be accommodated within the nation’s development strategy and ultimately contribute to the socio-economic development of our people ” The initial assessment was bounded by several key characteristics of the country about 70 percent is still under natural vegetation cover it has extensive low-lying coastal areas and about 50 percent of its total population lives in urban centers along the coastal areas Belize is a net remover of greenhouse gases In 1994 it was estimated that it absorbed six million metric tons MMT against three MMT of emissions The Global Warming Potential GWP however reveals a different picture The GWP is a factor based on the relative radiative force for each gas and its respective life in the atmosphere Using the GWP Belize contributes to 9 5 MMT CO2 equivalent while absorbing 3 5 MMT Moreover the UNFCCC recognizes that countries such as Belize “Non-Annex I Parties ” have a higher commitment to the alleviation of poverty and investing in sustainable development than to the mitigation of greenhouse gases Since signing and ratifying the UNFCCC Belize has undertaken impact assessments on staple crops coastal sensitivity to sea level rise and water resources of the Belize River Valley Climate change scenarios that project global mean surface temperature increases of 1°C to 3 5°C by 2100 are expected to contribute to a rise in sea level between 20 and 100 cm Rising sea levels will have large effects on Belize’s already low-lying coastline and its small islands with fragile ecosystems Today about 60 percent of the coastal areas experience flooding Most residential areas around Belize City are built on drained reclaimed wetlands vulnerable to sea level rise A 1-meter rise in sea level would turn the wetlands into lakes accelerating coastal erosion exacerbating coastal flooding raising water tables and increasing the salinity of rivers 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and aquifers This rise would also provide a higher level for coastal flooding forcing storm surges further inland and facilitating greater damage from smaller surges In the past 20 years Belize’s rate of real estate development hotels restaurants tourism services in the coastal areas has accelerated sharply to accommodate the growing tourism industry and the expansion of coastal residential areas The rapid growth has placed increased pressure on the available resources manifested by reduction in water quality increased soil erosion and an overextended waste disposal infrastructure The study estimates that a 50 cm rise in sea level over the next 100 years would overtake more than 50 percent of the beaches a 100 cm rise would destroy 90 percent of the beaches The outlying islands and the Placentia Peninsula are already threatened by a 20 cm rise in sea level The conclusion at this time is that to protect these urban areas sea walls and dikes will need to be built When the simulation model that was used adds rising sea levels to increased precipitation as expected in rising temperatures it reveals that the river areas of the country will remain in a permanent state of flooding throughout the year because of reduced drainage capacity Saltwater intrusion is another major concern throughout the coastal areas Some of the outlying islands have already been equipped with desalination plants to reduce the impact of growing demand on drinkable water by development population expansion At this stage it is clear that the projected sea level rise in the next 100 years coupled with increases in the rate of water extraction will result in higher events of saltwater intrusion Belize gets its water upstream where the water is already salty during the dry season making drinking water salinity a problem Aquaculture has been undertaken along the coastline in areas that are vulnerable to flooding and erosion Together these increase water turbidity which in turn reduces the productivity of cage aquaculture and fish shrimp farms along the coasts Belize’s coral reefs are not expected to suffer from rising sea level but from rising temperatures and rising storm surges Its coral reefs are living near or at their upper temperature resilience today so a small increase in temperature will cause them to “bleach ” making the corals more susceptible to diseases pathogens that would eventually kill them Two bleaching events occurred in Belize in 1995 and 1998 ENSO years and elevated sea temperatures affected 52 percent of the reefs The economic impact of losing coral reefs is twofold aquaculture and tourism Tourism today accounts for 15 percent of the GDP and is the largest source of foreign exchange and employment Cuba The Government of Cuba submitted its First National Communication to the UNFCCCxxvin August of 2004 The study included the main island and all adjacent islands that form the Cuban Archipelago Cuba’s climate is tropical with marine influence and average temperatures ranging from 24°C in the plains to 26°C and slightly higher in the eastern shores The variability in climate stems mostly from the level of precipitation The average annual rainfall is 130 cm year 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views between May and October when 80 percent of total precipitation occurs The dry period runs between November and April The most common and frequent weather events that occur in Cuba are tropical cyclones This is the term used for the different levels of intensity from tropical depression to hurricane From year to year Cuba can experience 0-5 tropical depressions storms and 0-4 hurricanes The Cuban economy suffered a severe contraction with the breakup of the Soviet Union The contraction triggered a large reduction in funds and goods injection eliminated the trading links to eastern European countries and limited access to external credit All of this caused Cuba’s GDP to experience a freefall between 1989 and 1994 In 1995 the economy started to recover slowly and has continued with small but positive GDP changes In its National Communication the IPCC main categories of greenhouse gases were used to calculate national inventories with the following activities as sources energy industrial process solvents and other product use agriculture land-use change and forestry and waste Greenhouse gases were estimated at 41 314 gigagrams Gg in 1990 compared to 26 043 Gg in 1994 CO2 was the greatest contributor to emissions 94 percent from the energy sector in both years though a net removal of gases was achieved by the changes in land use and forestry sectors The 37 percent decrease in that timeframe resulted from the sharp economic contraction Initial estimates of future greenhouse gases with annual GDP growth of 4-6 percent and carbon intensity levels equal to the ones in 1990 and no mitigation efforts indicate that Cuba’s gross level of emissions will reach 81 3 MMT by the year 2020 When the simulation model includes a reduction on the real energy intensity achieved since 1990 the gross emissions levels drop to around 70 MMT This implies that there is potential for greenhouse gas reduction by the year 2030 Cuba enjoys a robust network of surveillance systems focused on meteorology climate and atmospheric pollution with 75 meteorological stations and 11 rain and air quality monitoring stations This surveillance network accounts for a significant contribution of information and data to the World Meteorological Surveillance System WMS the Global Atmosphere Surveillance GAS the Global Climate Observing Systems GCOS and the Global Ocean Observing System GOOS Cuba has a well-structured system of research programs that covers a wide variety of problems focused on understanding the economic technical intellectual and cultural development of the country The following studies are underway • Global change and the evolution of the Cuban environment • Sustainable development of the mountains • Sustainable energy development • Production of foods for its population through sustainable ways • Production of animal food through sustainable ways • Agricultural biotechnology 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Vegetable improvements and phytogenetic resources • Biodiversity • Agricultural ecosystems and soils Cuba conducted a study on national biodiversity in 1995 and learned that it has 6 700 plant species 42 different ecosystems and more than 19 600 animal species About 10 percent of the animal species and 2 percent of plant species are at risk of extinction Cuba classifies 30 8 percent of its agricultural land as “low productivity” and 46 percent as “very low productivity ” This has resulted in a continued crop productivity loss with yield indexes below 70 percent Observations confirm that Cuba has experienced an annual average temperature increase of about 0 5°C during the period 1951-1996 This is attributable mainly to an increase of 1 4°C in average minimum temperatures while the increase in average maximum temperature has been insignificant i e there is a reduction in the daily variability of temperatures Cuba at the same time has experienced an increase in the severity of events such as tornados rain hail and drought since the mid-1070s ENSO played a key role in the climate variability across the country during this period The study initiated in 2000 to simulate future effects of climate change used the MAGICC SCENGEN climate models to generate three different scenarios—optimistic moderate and pessimistic The scenarios combined increases in temperature using 1990 as the base year for the years 2010 2030 2050 and 2100 and their corresponding rise in sea level for both IS92a and KyotoA1 emissions scenarios The variance in temperature increase from the three scenarios ranged from 0 34°C to 2 52°C The variance in sea level rise from the three scenarios ranged from 2 to 55 centimeters Since all models have limitations the above scenarios were evaluated with two separate models Climate change in general tends to decrease the amount of surface water even in the case where the model projects precipitation increases Saltwater intrusion into aquifers is a serious concern and highly probable because most of Cuba’s aquifers are open to the sea A rise in sea level of 30 cm by 2100 will result in a rise in saltwater intrusion of no less than 10 miles inland The impact on coastal zones and marine resources based on the scenarios evaluated can be summarized as flooding and displacement in low-lying areas coastal erosion and the retreat of the coast line an increase in storm surges an increase in the salinity in estuaries and aquifers changes in sediment patterns and the reduction of light in the marine ecosystem The study evaluated the impact in agriculture by focusing on food crop productivity biomass diseases and pathogens and forests For food production a set of basic products such as beans soybeans corn cassava sugar cane rice potatoes and sorghum was evaluated Productivity losses for the year 2030 where there was no fertilizing effect from CO2 was between 10-15 percent for rice cassava and corn 5-10 percent for sugar cane and 40-45 percent for potatoes If the model includes the fertilizing effect from CO2 and crops such as beans soybeans and rice with shorter growing cycles gains in productivity are possible These results will depend on the sensitivity of the climate to changes in energy balance 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Mangroves and other forest areas especially deciduous trees will suffer The National Communication estimates that by 2030 sea level rise will affect 7 1 percent of mangrove forest areas with about 42 9 percent of the area not recoverable The evaluation of the impact of climate change on human health focused on the following diseases acute lung diseases bronchitis viral hepatitis chicken pox meningitis and acute diarrhea Initial estimates revealed that all of the diseases would almost double by 2010 from the 1991-1998 base year with implications of similar impact on the cost of dealing with the increased number of disease events Dominican Republic The Government of the Dominican Republic completed its First National Communication to the UNFCCCxxvi in March 2004 The Dominican Republic is an island nation whose variable climate is highly influenced by the surrounding water easterly winds pressure systems topography and recurrent hurricanes Its average annual precipitation is 150 cm that varies from 35 cm to 274 3 cm 108 in in the island’s interior mountain range Emissions for 1990 and 1994 were estimated at 8 690 Gg and 15 003 Gg respectively More than 90 percent of the emissions were of CO2 mostly from the use of fossil fuels to meet energy demands Similar to the rest of the countries in the region total gross emissions are very small but the effects of climate variability can be significant The study to evaluate the impact of climate change was performed using different scenarios with adjustments for the Dominican Republic’s climate patterns The study evaluated the effects on water resources coastal zones agriculture forestry and health Three emission scenarios were chosen for this assessment an optimistic one IS92c a moderate one IS92a and a pessimistic one IS92f The base period chosen was 1961-1991 Projections were made for temperature precipitation and rise in sea level Under the moderate scenario temperature is expected to increase to 26 9°C precipitation to decrease to 113 7 cm and sea level to rise by 12 33 cm by 2030 These projections are compared to actual levels for 1990 The evaluation on water resources used a methodology that included the current water balance adjusted with coefficients representing average monthly changes in temperature and rainfall Three models were used—CSRT ECH4 and HADCM2—for the IS92 emissions scenario moderate at different levels of sensitivity The models were run against two regions of the country The models were run for the years 2010 2030 2050 and 2100 A rise in sea level similar to the one used and observed in Cuba 2 9 mm year was used to evaluate the impact on aquifers Rainfall is the only source of water replenishment in the Dominican Republic Since moderate scenarios estimate a reduction of up to 25 percent in water resources the Dominican Republic will need new policies to reduce water demand and will have to invest in infrastructure to increase its supply The most important aquifers in the country are open which means they are in contact with ocean water This is why saltwater intrusion will increase with rising sea levels exacerbating the loss of water resources for urban industrial and agricultural use The CSRT model estimates an increase in temperature of 0 7°C and a 4 percent increase in rainfall The ECH4 model estimates 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views an increase in temperature of 2 6°C and a 10 percent increase in rainfall in the next 100 years As temperatures rise so does evaporation reducing water resources by 28 percent relative to the base period The HADCM2 model estimates a rise in average temperature of 4 2°C and a decrease in rainfall of 60 percent causing a loss of 95 percent of the water resources by the year 2100 The Dominican Republic’s coastal areas have a rich diversity in ecosystems and economic activities The cities and towns located along the coastal areas contain 64 percent of the population Based on the chosen scenarios of emissions and rising sea levels of 0 14 cm year and 1 01 cm year a cumulative rise in sea level is projected to range from 3 77 cm to 26 73 cm by the year 2030 This will affect major coastal roads housing and bridges with all needing repairs and reconstruction more frequently The Dominican Republic enjoys an active and growing tourism industry The majority of the activities are associated with beaches coral reefs and clear water Lack of information on soil erosion and coastal erosion did not allow for a complete evaluation of the potential impact of rising temperatures and rising sea levels on the tourism economy At this time rising temperatures and rising sea levels are not expected to have a large impact on the fishing industry Forest productivity in the Dominican Republic today is very high in areas of large rainfall and very low in areas of low rainfall Under the scenario used for the HADCM2 model including the fertilizing effects of CO2 estimates of up to 21 2 percent increases in forest productivity are projected by the year 2050 in the regions where there is currently a high level of production There is no significant change in productivity in the regions of low yields Evaluation of the impact on agricultural production was focused on potatoes rice and corn as initial examples since the current methodology could adjust for the variability across the country on growing cycles rainfall and products The impact on potatoes under all scenarios is negative The largest decrease is associated with the HADCM2 model that projects that in the latter part of the next century growing potatoes may be impossible Productivity losses by the year 2030 are estimated at above 50 percent Productivity losses for rice are less dramatic ranging from 12 percent by the year 2030 to around 50 percent by the year 2100 There are no significant productivity losses for corn however productivity does gradually decrease in the same timeframe The impact on health in the Dominican Republic was focused on the patterns observed in the past 10 to 15 years In some regions 80 percent of malaria cases have been observed where only 10 to 15 percent of the population is located Changes in temperature and rainfall as projected by the scenarios reveal that future adjustments would be in the frequency of cases increasing from 16 to 20 percent but that current patterns and geographical distribution would be maintained In this analysis there was no clear evidence or correlation between ENSO and increases in the number of malaria cases Guatemala Guatemala submitted its first national communication to the UNFCC in December 2001 xxvii The communication prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources identifies four 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views major areas vulnerable to climate change health forests production of basic grains and hydrologic resources The analysis of Guatemala’s climate is based on data from the network of stations of the National Institute of Seismology Volcanology Meteorology and Hydrology Instituto Nacional de Sismología Vulcanología Meteorología e Hidrología The emissions scenarios chosen to estimate the changes in global mean temperature were IS92c IS92a and IS92d Three diseases among several analyzed were identified as the principal diseases associated with climatic variability in Guatemala acute diarrhea acute respiratory infection and malaria Acute diarrhea and malaria are highly prevalent in the warmest and rainiest months of the year MayOctober xxviii Acute respiratory infection is more prevalent during September-November and February-March i e the transitioning periods from summer to winter and vice versa The criteria used to assess the diseases with the largest possible impact from climate change are the following • Having a relation direct or indirect to climate and its variability • Being of high prevalence at a national level • Being within the ten major causes of morbidity and mortality • Having statistical data to develop the research • Not having been discarded in other studies at the international level • Having a profound understanding of its epidemiology • Obtaining results that are beneficial to health In addition to coinciding with the largest number of the aforementioned criteria acute diarrhea and acute respiratory infection represent the studied diseases with the greatest potential impact on the country and are the principal causes of illness and deaths among Hondurans 363 679 and 962 827 deaths in 1999 respectively particularly in children less than 5 years old Malaria was selected because it is a vector disease and is predominantly present among adult males The poor state of health in Guatemala results from the poor quality of life little availability of health and sanitary programs and the lack of adequate nutrition The prevalence of infectious diseases in Guatemala reflects this poor state of health and is among the major causes of deaths in the country An assessment of the impact on health due to climate change was based on climatology baseline from 1961-1990 climate information for the period 1991-1999 and a pessimistic scenario on climate change The Bultó Index was also used This is a methodology developed in Cuba that is based on empirical statistical models for projecting future behaviors of diseases using climatic conditions as variables such as maximum and minimum temperatures thermal oscillation precipitation and the influence of ENSO The analysis of the three diseases focused on the southwestern part of Guatemala but according to the communication the results could be similar for the rest of the country with the exception of malaria which shows a tendency to decline by 2030 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The results indicate that by 2030 acute respiratory infection has a tendency to increase in frequency particularly at the beginning of the rainy season By the same year acute diarrhea also increases in frequency with the greatest prevalence in June and July However the communication points out that the disease is not only influenced by climate and its variability but also by such factors as poor sanitary infrastructure especially in rural and marginal urban areas of the country the lack of health education and poor coverage of health care services When analyzing the effects of climate variability in the behavior of malaria in the region the result is a significant decline in malaria cases and abating of the seasonal patterns of the disease as a result of the effects of climatic variability For the assessment of climate change impacts on forest resources vegetation cover is analyzed as a function of the IS92c IS92a and IS92d climate change scenarios and bioclimatic scenarios assigned to Guatemala that are based on the Holdridge Life Zone Model Under the optimistic scenario climatic conditions have an impact on very limited areas of the country only 416 km2 of forest cover 0 38 percent of the total surface area of the country which is equivalent to 4 2 million cubic meters of lumber Under the pessimistic scenario close to 4 000 km 2 of coniferous and mixed forests 3 67 percent of the surface area of the country would suffer which is equivalent to 40 million cubic meters of lumber Coniferous forests represent 80 percent of forest productivity so the decline in forest cover would also have economic consequences However the authors caution that the analysis is based on climatic projections to 50 years from 1999 which is a short period of time for forests to show significant changes The climate change scenarios for the vulnerability study on the production of basic grains is based on the changes for the year 2030 in the normal ECCG_C optimistic ECCG_HA extensive wetness and pessimistic ECCG_SA extensive dryness scenarios 6 Corn beans and rice with their cultural socioeconomic and nutritional significance in Guatemala were the basic crops studied Corn is the most important crop in the country and makes up the basic diet of a majority of Guatemalans particularly in rural areas In addition most corn producers are subsistence farmers Beans are the second most important food crop in Guatemala and one of the major sources of protein Rice is a significant source of carbohydrates in the national diet and is also used in the production of domestic beverages The yield differences in the production of basic crops that were simulated according to the baseline projections of environmental conditions in the absence of climate change and the differences that were obtained under climate change represent the potential size of the impact for 2030 Table 6 For each zone examined yield variability production was determined between the production in the baseline and production under climate change and for the normal optimistic and pessimistic scenarios Table 7 6 The scenarios were defined specifically for the National Communication details can be found in that report 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The simulations show that variability in normal climate conditions implies the largest negative consequences on the studied crops The results also indicate that in the areas where climatic conditions are expected to be more extreme the extent of negative consequences on agricultural production of basic crops will be larger The hydrometeorological data used to evaluate the impact of climate change on hydrological resources are based on the results precipitation and evapotranspiration of the baseline of the climate scenarios which was used to create a base scenario for precipitation P evapotranspiration ETP and runoff R and for each basin studied The MOD-BAL model developed by UNESCO was used to estimate future runoff according to climatic parameters established in the climatic scenarios to the year 2030 Under the optimistic scenario ECCG_HA an increase in runoff can be expected River flows of 10 liters per second under this scenario would increase to up to 11 5 liters per second Under the pessimistic scenario ECCG_SA a reduction in runoff can be expected Runoff of major rivers of large departments and cities such as Guatemala Escuintla Mazatenango and Quetzaltenango may decrease by as much as 50 percent Accordingly basins of 10 liters per second could diminish by as much as 5 liters per second Temperature increments ºC HA C SA 1 5 1 0 2 2 1 6 1 0 2 1 Station Camantulul Panzós Asunción Mita 1 6 0 9 Precipitation Variability % HA C SA 9 -1 -19 -1 -2 -19 2 3 9 -2 -22 Labor Ovalle 2 8 2 4 3 6 7 -1 -19 San Jerónimo 1 4 1 1 2 3 6 0 -10 INSIVUMEH 1 5 1 0 2 2 7 -1 -18 S Cruz Balanyá 1 5 1 0 2 2 7 -1 -18 Promedio 1 7 1 2 2 4 6 -1 -18 HA Optimistic scenario excess wetness C Normal scenario central SA Pesimistic scenario excess dyness Table 6 The simulations were made for corn beans and rice for13 agricultural seasons 1980 to 1993 and in seven climatic observatory sites Source Herrera and Associates 2000 Yield Kg ha Zone Crop 1 Corn Corn Rice 2 Actual Baseline Optimistic % Change Normal % Change Pessimistic % Change 2857 2025 2025 2738 1952 4136 3142 1744 3303 15 -11 -20 2957 1828 3462 8 -6 -16 3091 1630 3018 13 -16 -27 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 3 4 5 6 7 6 Corn Beans Corn Corn Corn Corn Beans 2270 1281 2189 1954 2237 2384 113 2263 1281 2163 1954 2245 2374 2104 2029 743 2430 2021 2156 2412 2157 -10 -42 12 3 -4 2 3 2003 918 2280 1918 2169 2447 2163 -11 -28 5 -2 -3 3 3 1500 433 2131 1876 2120 2339 2110 Table 7 Climate change impacts on the production of Basic Grains Source Herrera and Associates 2000 45 This paper does not represent US Government views -34 -66 -1 -4 -6 -1 00 This paper does not represent US Government views Haiti Haiti’s Ministry of the Environment submitted the country’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001 xxix Haiti has also submitted a National Adaptation Programme of Action NAPA to the UNFCCC xxx NAPAs provide a process for Least Developed Countries LDCs to identify priority activities that respond to their urgent and immediate needs with regard to adaptation to climate change The rationale for NAPAs rests on the limited ability of LDCs to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change In Central America and the Caribbean only Haiti has been designated as an LDC xxxi Similar to many of the Latin American reports Haiti’s National Communication first focuses on emissions sources particularly energy emissions Four sources are listed wood 71 percent oil 20 percent hydropower 5 percent and bagasse 4 percent Most of the energy demand 69 percent is for residential housing The vulnerability section focuses on agriculture and water The method used is also the method specified for many of the other countries in this region using the MAGICC and SCENGEN models to generate scenarios There are three sensitivity scenarios low middle and high The results show temperature increases of 0 6 to 1 2°C by 2020 1 1 to 2 3°C by 2050 and 1 4 to 4 0° by 2100 By 2030 precipitation at a medium sensitivity decreases from 5 9 percent in February to 20 percent in July For agriculture all three crops studied—potatoes rice and maize—show decreased yields even with CO2 fertilization Forestry too is projected to experience detrimental effects Less precipitation and higher temperatures are the sources of these negative consequences For water the decline in precipitation has a devastating impact combined with saltwater intrusion as sea level rises Every variable shows marked changes for instance precipitation in 2030 is projected to decline by 187 mm annually and continue to decline to 477 mm annually by 2060 Honduras Honduras submitted its first national communication to the UNFCC on November 15 2000 xxxii In considering possible effects of climate change the communication draws partly on projections developed by the country’s Climate Change Program of the Environment Ministry and partly on a 1995 US EPA-funded Central American Project on Climate Change Proyecto Centro Americano de Cambio Climático Under the Central American Project on Climate Change Honduras participated in studies on the vulnerabilities of hydrologic resources and addressed the possible impact from climate change-related sea level rise Honduras is highly affected by extreme climatic events—in terms of both the frequency of climatic changes as well as the intensity of occurrences In 1995-96 the impact from drought in the driest regions of the country brought about famine human losses emergence of water-borne diseases cardiovascular and respiratory diseases related to atmospheric pollution and extreme temperatures loss of crops and increased forest fires Hurricane Mitch in 1999 and the historic amounts of rainfall that followed the next year cost the lives of many civilians as well as causing appreciable losses and deterioration of infrastructure crop failure and depletion of watersheds 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In response to this Honduras’ Climate Change Program of the Environment Ministry has developed sectoral vulnerability studies associated with medium-to-long-term occurrences such as climate change Studies specific to climate change relate to future climate projections based on the IPCC scenarios The table below shows projected future changes of average annual temperature precipitation and cloudiness for the pessimistic and moderate scenarios based on these studies Pessimistic Scenario Year Temperature ºC Precipitation % Cloudiness % 2010 0 6 to 0 9 -6 6 to -8 4 -2 5 to -4 0 2030 1 0 to 1 5 -11 2 to -14 5 -4 3 to -6 8 Moderate Scenario Year Temperature ºC Precipitation % Cloudiness % 2010 0 6 to 0 8 -2 4 to -6 4 -2 4 to -3 7 2030 0 9 to 1 3 -9 7 to -12 5 -3 8 to -5 9 Figures 18 and 19 identify what areas in Honduras are likely to experience the highest temperatures and the most precipitation for 2030 respectively Reduced precipitation as indicated by these projections may cause considerable sectoral damages particularly if this reduction due to climate change is accompanied by precipitation reductions that arise from an El Niño event in areas near the Pacific slope Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to climate change will occur in the form of floods and droughts that year by year will affect considerably the agricultural zones of the country such as the Valley of Comauagua the Valley of Sula and the Valley of Choluteca The rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall will likely have effects on the supply of water for drinking irrigation and the generation of electric energy Given the high importance of agriculture to Honduras it is highly likely the economy will suffer severely 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 16 Spatial distribution of temperature in Honduras – Results for the year 2030 given the moderate scenario Source Honduras “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” November 2000 http unfccc int national_reports non-annex_i_natcom items 2979 php Figure 17 Spatial distribution of precipitation in Honduras – Results for the year 2030 given the moderate scenario Source Honduras “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” November 2000 http unfccc int national_reports non-annex_i_natcom items 2979 php 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Based on the 1995 Central American Project on Climate Change preliminary estimates of the areas vulnerable to sea level rise by 2025 are shown below Loss by inundation estimates km2 Valle de Sula 885 Valle de Cuyamel 39 Punta Gorda 3 Omoa 2 Tulián 3 Puerto Cortés 20 Bahía de Tela 46 Valle de Río Leán 100 Llanura del Esparta a la Ceiba 175 Total 1 276 Affected Zone In addition to the economic damage from flooding associated with the rise in sea level Honduras’ first communication also points out possible socio-cultural implications that are difficult to quantify Such may be the case with nationally treasured archeological sites and valuable tourist resources such as mangroves wetlands and reefs that are vulnerable to erosion and flooding Mexico The Government of Mexico submitted its Third Communication to UNFCC as an update to its previous submissionxxxiii in December 2007 This report includes an inventory of greenhouse gases in 2002 In contrast with the other countries in this review Mexico is a net producer supplier of fossil fuels and an increasingly important emitter of greenhouse gases Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions for the third report were calculated for the year 2002 in the energy sector industrial processes solvents agriculture land use changes forestry and waste The energy sector generated 61 percent of all emissions followed by land use changes forestry with 14 percent waste 10 percent industrial processes 8 percent and agriculture 7 percent At that time emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent represented an increase of 25 percent from the base year 1990 The Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning LEAP system was used to build the base emission scenarios for 2008 2010 and 2030 to estimate future greenhouse gases For these projections three scenarios were used base or current low economic growth and high economic growth A key conclusion was that electricity generation is highly sensitive to GDP growth resulting in 30 percent reduction of emissions in the low economic growth scenario and 24 percent increase in the high economic scenario Another conclusion accepted in the report found that implementing automobile energy efficiency standards would help significantly in the reduction of greenhouse gases in combination with the expansion of renewable and nuclear energy This report focused extensively in quantifying all types of gases generated by the use and generation of energy fuels across the major sectors of the economy Currently there are 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views many programs regulations and measures underway by the Secretaría de Energía SENER to increase the efficient use of energy as well as to save energy with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the next 100 years There are also programs to increase the role of renewable energy including wind and biomass By the end of 2007 the plan was to have a total of 5 000 GW year for incorporation into the electricity network with the goal of covering 8 percent of total electricity demand by the year 2012 GCMs were used to estimate the impact of climate change under four SRES emission scenarios A1B A2 B2 and B1 The overarching results were that Mexico’s climate is projected to be warmer by the years 2020 2030 and 2080 especially in the northern part of the country with a temperature increase of 2-4°C Rainfall was estimated to decrease by 15 percent in the central regions and by less than 5 percent on the regions around the Gulf of Mexico The hydrological cycle will be more intense creating a larger number of storms during the rainy season and a prolonged period of drought during the dry season These cycles indicate that 75 percent of precipitation will evaporate while only 5 percent will be able to replenish aquifers IPCC estimates that Mexico could experience reductions in runoff ranging from 10-20 percent as a national average with over 40 percent in coastal areas of the Gulf The projected increases in severe storms and prolonged droughts made by these models have already been observed across the country in the past five years Mexico’s national average water availability is calculated at 4 000 cubic meters per capita per year The national average availability varies significantly among the different regions of the country particularly in the center and north where the average is 2 500 cubic meters per capita per year 7 The figures are somewhat misleading since 75 percent of the water is used by the agricultural sector 14 percent by households and 11 percent by the industrial sector According to the Comisión Nacional del Agua CNA the agricultural sector wastes 55 percent of water extracted while the urban sector wastes 43 percent due to leaks in the extraction and distribution process and through excessive use Adding decreases in rainfall of 5-10 percent and increases in temperature of 1-3ºC will result in water availability losses between 5 and 15 percent by the year 2020 and 2050 Water resource loss will vary widely across the country This will have a critical impact in the north and central regions a severe impact in the Pacific-central region and a strong-to-moderate impact in the south and Gulf coast regions As a result it is clear that significant changes will be required in the use and distribution of this resource Climate change projections were applied to three models for evaluating the efficiency of corn yields based on temperature rainfall topography soil type and vegetative period Moderate yield losses were found in the moderate yield areas which would force increased use of marginal lands of up to 4 percent resulting in further yield reductions Several models were used with the same scenarios providing different results with variations of productivity changes between slight increase and moderate losses depending on the region 7 1 000 cubic meters per capita per year is an indicator of water scarcity 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Forestland coverage is a key factor in the mitigation of climate change The risk of forest fires increases with rising temperature and reduction of rainfall Loss of forestland will be exacerbated as agricultural activity moves into marginal lands and forest areas Under the different models used for scenario A2 the estimated forestland affected ranges from 8 percent to 33 percent by 2020 and from 9 percent to 76 percent by 2050 The report provides results of a specific study on water resources undertaken for the Hermosillo and Sonora regions The study outlines options as solutions to the water availability challenges with some qualitative estimates of the type of action time to implement efficiency ratios cost viability participants and outcomes Other studies of Mexico generally echo the major concerns about impacts discussed in the National Communication especially crop production precipitation and water availability Conde et al xxxiv focus on maize the staple food of rural dwellers especially subsistence farmers in Tlaxcala Mexico Mexican policy changed from self-sufficiency in food production during the 1990s to an emphasis on “guarantee ing people’s capacity to acquire food ”xxxv Imports became more important—but not to the poorest and subsistence farmers Using the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios leads to projected yield increases because the threat of frost is reduced Using the Ceres-maize model however leads to yield reductions Wehbe et al xxxvi explore coffee production in its climatic and economic context in Veracruz Their model indicates that coffee production falls by 34 percent by 2020 making it not economically viable Salinas-Zavala and Lluch-Cotaxxxvii find that ENSO events are correlated to winter wheat yields in Sonora El Niño with increases La Niña with decreases the ability to forecast ENSO events may thus reduce the impact of climate change on wheat yields Luers et al xxxviii also focus on wheat in the same region the Yaqui Valley specifying a quantitative measure of vulnerability and finding that “Valley farmers without adaptations are on average more vulnerable to a 20 percent decrease in wheat prices than a 1°C increase in average minimum temperature ”xxxix Drought has long plagued Mexico Boyd and Ibarraránxl explore the implications of projected increases in drought in northern Mexico up to a 36 percent increase projected by the Canadian Climate Change model on various economic sectors As expected agricultural production is highly affected Electricity from hydropower constitutes another significant loss A ripple effect then slows productivity in manufacturing chemicals and refining sectors although these losses are not as great as in agriculture and electricity Finally consumption declines with inequality increasing as the already-poor are more affected Nicaragua A case study for evaluating impacts of climate change in Nicaraguaxli revealed that temperature increases ranging from 1 3°C to 1 5°C by the year 2030 would result in a 12 4 percent to 14 5 percent drop in precipitation In this study Umaña and colleagues considered three main temperature change scenarios optimist moderate and pessimist for the years 2010 2030 2050 and 2100 The optimist scenario assumed temperature increases of 0 8°C for 2010 1 3°C for 2030 and 2 1°C for 2100 resulting in 7 9 12 4 and 21 percent decrease in precipitation For the moderate scenario with temperature changes of 0 8°C in 2010 and 1 3°C in 2030 the same as for the optimist scenario precipitation is estimated to decrease from 7 9 to12 4 percent For the pessimist scenario temperature change is projected to increase by 0 9°C in 2010 and 1 5°C in 2030 resulting in a decrease from 8 4 percent to 14 5 percent in precipitation 51 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The scenario changes in temperature and precipitation were used to simulate the impact on the three main food crops produced in the country corn beans and soybeans While the impact is expected to vary across the country’s different zones the end results are expected to be greater evaporation and an increased need of water for irrigation of crops a longer duration of the vegetative cycle and reduced plant productivity In the moderate temperature change scenario the estimated fall for corn production is 5 percent to 30 percent for beans 5 percent to 32 percent and for soybeans 2 5 percent to 18 percent by the 2030 Panama Espinosa et al xlii evaluated the impact of climate change on water resources in the La Villa Chiriqui and Chagres river basins of Panama The goal of the research was to develop different scenarios of water resource availability under given climate changes experienced by the doubling of global CO2 concentration in the next 100 years For simulating impact they used the model CLIRUN3 in combination with 20-year records of precipitation potential evapotranspiration and water flow to simulate monthly river runoff in the Chagres Panama Canal river basin This basin is critical because it supplies water to 25 percent of the country's population and is crucial to international navigation The Chiriqui river basin is the main national source of hydropower and the La Villa river basin is highly important to agricultural activity The Chagres river basin is part of the Atlantic watershed the other two belong to the Pacific watershed The authors ran the model for the watersheds under scenarios with temperature increases of loC and 2oC with precipitation changes of plus or minus 15 percent for the Pacific and plus or minus 20 percent for the Atlantic watershed Although the model and information had limitations the simulated results had a high correlation 0 9 with the observed data The simulation study showed “A clear indication that basins located in the Pacific region would be the most affected under the conditions of the incremental scenarios used ” During November-December when water demand is higher water flow is projected to lessen as temperature increases whether or not precipitation increases This suggests that the basins are highly sensitive to temperature changes particularly during the dry season Under a scenario of increased temperature and decreased precipitation the mean monthly flow tends to decrease by 3 to 42 percent both in the Atlantic and Pacific basins If simultaneous increases in temperature and precipitation took place the flow in the Pacific basins would be reduced by 5 percent to 35 percent from November to March During the remaining months the mean flow would increase by 4 percent to 40 percent However in the basin of the Atlantic watershed all the simulated values would be 3 percent to 50 percent higher than the mean value Espinosa et al point out that there is great uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climatic conditions for different time periods because GCMs are not highly reliable tools for studies in the Central American region However the use of incremental scenarios allowed evaluation of how sensitive water resource availability is under different temperature increments and precipitation changes U 52 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Puerto Rico—Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability for a Bioenergy Project in the Lajas Valley Puerto Rico is looking at the feasibility of finding green energy alternatives Researchers Guindin Weiss and Pérez-Alegríaxliii evaluated a bioenergy project based on sugarcane ethanol to use over 24 281 ha 60 000 ac of prime farmland in the Lajas Valley Predicting sugarcane water needs under current conditions and for the future was considered a critical issue for the sustainability of any agricultural enterprise in the proposed region In this research the authors noted that there is intense competition for a finite amount of water among agricultural residential and commercial users The objective of their effort was to study the impact of irrigation requirements for sugarcane using different climate change scenarios The authors used the climate scenarios for 2010-2039 2010s 2040-2069 2040s and 2070-2099 2070s periods from the HadCM3 A21 model developed at the UK Hadley Climate Research Center and the CGM2 A21 model developed by the Canadian Climate Centre Climate change scenarios were generated based on projections from these models The relative changes in precipitation maximum and minimum temperature were calculated for the three periods 2010s 2040s and 2070s using the climate change scenarios from the HadCM3 and CGM2 models Sugarcane water requirements were calculated with CropWat 4 using generated monthly temperature and precipitation for the three periods The authors state their conclusions as follows “Both climate change scenarios project a decrease in total annual precipitation for 2010s 2040s and 2070s The HadCM3 model projected a 43 mm decrease in total annual precipitation for 2010s while the CGM2 model projected a decrease of 400 mm for the same period For 2070s the HadCM3 model projected a 422 mm decrease in total annual precipitation Under the current climate conditions simulation results indicate that the irrigation system does not have the capacity to supply the irrigation water requirements for 60 000 acres of sugarcane in the Lajas Valley Future irrigation water requirements for sugarcane show an increase over 90 percent under climate change scenarios for the periods 2010s 2040s and 2070s based on the actual irrigation system capacity If the assumptions used in this study are reasonable now is the time for planning future water supply and storage systems and developing alternatives crops that can adapt to less water Further research is needed to assess other sources of uncertainty—in particular changes in wet and dry periods and to analyze the possible impact on other crops grown in the region ” 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity The impact of climate change on a society will be felt by how well it can adapt to climate change that is its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCC as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences ”xliv Thus adaptive capacity is distinguished from both the effects of climate change and the degree to which those effects influence the systems that are in place as noted in the previous sections Although the specific determinants of adaptive capacity are a matter of debate among researchers there is broad agreement that economic human and environmental resources are essential elements Some components of this adaptive capacity are near-term such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by flooding or droughts for example Other components include a high enough level of education so that people can change livelihoods a quantity of unmanaged land that can be brought into food production and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change For instance Yohe and Tolxlv have identified eight qualitative “determinants of adaptive capacity ” many of which are societal in character although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing 1 The range of available technological options for adaptation 2 The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3 The structure of critical institutions the derivative allocation of decision-making authority and the decision criteria that would be employed 4 The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5 The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6 The system’s access to risk-spreading processes 7 The ability of decision-makers to manage information the processes by which these decision-makers determine which information is credible and the credibility of the decisionmakers themselves 8 The public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations The Caribbean and Central American Region in a Global Context Researchers have only recently taken on the challenge of assessing adaptive capacity in a comparative quantitative framework A global comparative study of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity was conducted using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM—see description in box xlvi 54 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model VRIM The VRIM is a hierarchical model with four levels The vulnerability index level 1 is derived from two indicators level 2 sensitivity how systems could be damaged by climate change and adaptive capacity the capability of a society to maintain minimize loss of or maximize gains in welfare Sensitivity and adaptive capacity in turn are composed of sectors level 3 For adaptive capacity these sectors are human resources economic capacity and environmental capacity For sensitivity the sectors are settlement infrastructure food security ecosystems human health and water resources Each of these sectors is composed of one to three proxies level 4 The proxies under adaptive capacity are as follows human resource proxies are the dependency ratio and literacy rate economic capacity proxies are GDP market per capita and income equity and environmental capacity proxies are population density sulfur dioxide divided by state area and percent of unmanaged land Proxies in the sensitivity sectors are water availability fertilizer use per agricultural land area percent of managed land life expectancy birthrate protein demand cereal production per agricultural land area sanitation access access to safe drinking water and population at risk due to sea level rise Each of the hierarchical level values is comprised of the geometric means of participating values Proxy values are indexed by determining their location within the range of proxy values over all countries or states The final calculation of resilience is the geometric mean of all eight sectors Adaptive capacity as assessed in that study consists of seven variables in three sectors chosen to represent societal characteristics important to a country’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change Human and Civic Resources • Dependency Ratio proxy for social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting basic needs • Literacy proxy for human capital generally especially the ability to adapt by changing employment Economic Capacity • GDP market Per Capita proxy for economic well-being in general especially access to markets technology and other resources useful for adaptation • Income Equity proxy for the potential of all people in a country or state to participate in the economic benefits available 55 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Environmental Capacity • Percent of Land that is Unmanaged proxy for potential for economic use or increased crop productivity and for ecosystem health e g ability of plants and animals to migrate under climate change • Sulfur Dioxide Per Unit Land Area proxy for air quality and through acid deposition other stresses on ecosystems • Population Density proxy for population pressures on ecosystems e g adequate food production for a given population Adaptive capacity for a sample of 10 countries from the 160-country study is shown in Figure 18 base year of 2000 There is a wide range of adaptive capacity represented by these countries the three countries from the Caribbean—Belize Mexico and Haiti—are in the high-middle and lowest ranks both in the sample and overall • Russia ranks 32nd and Libya 34th in the highest quartile • Indonesia ranks 45th Belize 48th Mexico 59th and China 75th in the second quartile • The Philippines ranks 91st and India 119th in the third quartile • Morocco ranks 136th and Haiti 156th in the lowest quartile Any country-level analysis must take into account the comparative ranking of the country in the overall 160 groups of countries Ranking of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya Indonesia Belize Mexico China Philippines India Morocco Haiti 0 20 40 60 80 Figure 18 Sample of 10 countries’ rankings of adaptive capacity 2000 56 This paper does not represent US Government views 100 This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 19 shows the contribution of each variable to the overall ranking with slight differences occurring because of the methodology see box above Belize ranks fairly high because of favorable environmental capacity proxies comparatively high percentage of unmanaged land low emissions and low population density Mexico also ranks in the second quartile of countries overall but with different strengths in human and civic resources comparatively favorable dependency and literacy levels as well as environmental capacity low emissions and low population density—but a less favorable percentage of unmanaged land Haiti ranks poorly on almost every proxy variable with the exception of emissions which are comparatively low Aspects of Adaptive Capacity in Base Year Russian Federation Libya GDP per capita Indonesia equity index Belize dependency ratio Mexico literacy levels China non-managed land % Philippines emssions total land India population density Morocco Haiti 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Figure 19 Variables’ contributions to adaptive capacity rankings Figure 20 shows projected adaptive capacity growth over time for the 10-country sample Projections are made for two scenarios rates of growth are based on the IPCC’s A1 scenario in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios the A2A1 delayed growth and the A1v2 high growth scenario as adapted from the IPCC A1 and A2 scenarios by the IPCC participating model MiniCAM Both scenarios A2A1 and A1v2 feature moderate population growth and a tendency toward convergence in affluence with market-based solutions rapid technological progress and improving human welfare The scenarios used in this study differ in the rate of economic growth one modeling high-andfast economic growth and the other delayed growth In the delayed-growth scenario the three Caribbean and Central American countries show almost stagnant then modest growth In the high-growth scenario all countries improve their adaptive capacity although the overall gap among different countries widens i e initially lower-ranking countries do not show as high 57 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Adaptive Capacity in the Delayed Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Adaptive Capacity in the High Growth Scenario 110 Russian Federation 100 Libya 90 Indonesia 80 Belize 70 Mexico 60 China 50 Philippines India 40 Morocco 30 Haiti 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 Figure 20 Projections of adaptive capacity for 11 countries under a delayed growth scenario and a high growth scenario Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press growth rates as initially higher-ranking countries Both scenarios show the Philippines improving its adaptive capacity at a higher rate than Mexico and in the high-growth scenario overtaking Mexico 58 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Caribbean and Central American Countries Compared to Each Other Turning to the specific set of countries included in this report 8 Figure 21 shows the base year values by sector and by proxy variable for all nine Central American and Caribbean countries Here the differences among countries in elements of adaptive capacities are clear e g human resources strengths in Panama and Cuba environmental capacity strengths in Belize and Honduras Base year Belize Panama Cuba Mexico economic capacity Honduras human rescources Nicaragua environmental capacity Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti 0 50 100 150 200 250 Base year Belize Panama GDP per capita Cuba equity index Mexico dependency ratio Honduras literacy levels Nicaragua non-managed land % emssions total land Dominican Republic population density Guatemala Haiti 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Figure 21 Base year rankings of adaptive capacity in nine Caribbean Central American countries Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 8 Except Puerto Rico 59 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views a2a1 2020 Belize Panama Cuba Mexico economic capacity Honduras human rescources Nicaragua environmental capacity Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti 0 50 100 150 200 250 a2a1 2020 Belize Panama GDP per capita Cuba equity index Mexico dependency ratio Honduras literacy levels Nicaragua non-managed land % emssions total land Dominican Republic population density Guatemala Haiti 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 a2a1 2050 Belize Panama Cuba Mexico economic capacity Honduras human rescources Nicaragua environmental capacity Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti 0 50 100 150 200 250 a2a1 2050 Belize Panama GDP per capita Cuba equity index Mexico dependency ratio Honduras literacy levels Nicaragua non-managed land % emssions total land Dominican Republic population density Guatemala Haiti 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Figure 22 2020 and 2050 snapshots of the low-growth scenario for Caribbean Central American countries with sector results and proxy variable results Source Based on E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications M Ruth and M Ibarraran eds Elsevier Science Dordrecht in press 60 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views For projections Figure 22 provides two snapshots of the low-growth scenario A2A1 for 2020 and 2050 In both future years many countries are projected to experience a decrease in environmental capacity in some cases partially compensated for by increases in other areas e g GDP per capita in Belize and Mexico literacy levels in Panama Cuba and the Dominican Republic Key Contributors to Adaptive Capacity by Country As stated above there are several key indicators parameters for any given country that can provide insight into its adaptive capacity such as literacy rates basic services energy supply and changes in production In Latin America and the Caribbean population has steadily increased since the 1900s and is expected to continue the trend through 2030 Availability of adequate human resources is a necessary condition to enhance adaptive capacity It is also important that these resources have the appropriate level of education and access to basic services in order to have the ability to support economic growth Illiteracy continues to be a concern in some of the countries of interest An illiterate person is defined as an individual unable to read and write a short simple statement on his or her everyday life Significant progress has been made in most countries of the region Nicaragua and Haiti however in 2005 still had greater than one third of the population older than 15 years of age classified as illiterate This significantly affects economic growth economic diversification and adaptive capacity Table 8 shows past and projected population for the selected countries and Table 9 illustrates the level of illiteracy in the region Throughout the 1970s 1980s and 1990s the countries in Central America and the Caribbean experienced long periods of social unrest capital flight economic contraction and large intraregional and extra-regional migration In many cases the best educated members of a population emigrated Intra-regional migration during these three decades grew rapidly Nicaragua and El Salvador in particular saw many of their best flee to Costa Rica beginning in the 1970s and by 2000 over 8 percent of Costa Rica consisted of immigrants from those two countries This was the direct result of the civil wars fought in both countries 61 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Country Belice Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador Guatemala Haití Honduras México Nicaragua Puerto Rico República Dominicana 1990 2000 2010 2030 186 0 3 076 0 10 605 0 5 110 0 8 908 0 7 108 0 4 901 0 84 002 0 4 141 0 3 528 0 7 296 0 245 0 3 925 0 11 129 0 6 276 0 11 225 0 8 576 0 6 231 0 99 684 0 5 106 0 3 834 0 8 740 0 306 0 4 695 0 11 236 0 7 453 0 14 362 0 10 085 0 7 614 0 110 056 0 5 825 0 4 056 0 10 169 0 413 0 5 779 0 11 077 0 9 652 0 21 804 0 13 350 0 10 414 0 127 211 0 7 140 0 4 383 0 12 625 0 Table 8 Total Population Thousands Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Table 9 Percentage of Illiterate Population 15 years or older Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 During the same period Mexico also received many migrants from Guatemala and Nicaragua At the end of the 1990s Guatemala and the other countries in the region signed peace agreements and experienced the repatriation of many of their citizens from Mexico By 2000 Mexico had a significantly smaller portion of immigrants from these countries than it had in 1990 There is also the added element of intra-regional seasonal migration exercised by those following the agricultural sector for employment On a yearly basis there are migrations from northern Panama to southern Costa Rica and from northern Guatemala to southern Mexico 62 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Migration from Central America and the Caribbean to the United States also increased during the same period Caribbean-born immigrants accounted for almost 10 percent of the total US foreign-born population in 2000 The largest growth in the number of immigrants from Latin America to the United States occurred from 1990 to 2000 when a 97 percent increase occurred Population grew from 7 2 million to 14 2 million The 14 2 million people in 2000 included 9 1 million from Mexico 879 000 from Cuba 710 000 from Dominican Republic 468 000 from Guatemala 409 000 from Haiti and 232 000 from Nicaragua The proportion of the original total population that migrated to the United States during this period represented a wide range of the total population in the country of origin in the year 2000 The proportion ranged from 13 percent in the case of El Salvador 9 percent for Mexico 8 percent for Dominican Republic 7 8 percent for Cuba and 4 percent each for Haiti and Nicaragua The migration from Central America and the Caribbean intra-regional and extra regional has resulted in a systematic and regular transfer of funds from the United States and other countries to the families and relatives that remained in the countries of origin The Inter-American Development Bank IADB estimates the region received US$7 8 billion through official channels in 2004 a 17 percent increase from the 2003 figure of US$6 7 billion xlvii Guatemala topped the list of recipients with almost US$2 7 billion in official flows in 2004 followed by El Salvador with US$2 5 billion These two countries which account for nearly two-thirds of the two million Central Americans counted in the 2000 US census receive almost 64 percent of total remittance flows to Central America They are the fourth- and fifth-largest remittance-receiving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean Remittance growth in Guatemala tripled from 2001 to 2004 Honduras and Nicaragua followed at some distance at around the US$1 billion while Panama Costa Rica and Belize trailed with less than US$325 million in remittances in 2004 The low levels of the latter three reflect the fact that they have relatively few emigrants in the United States While much attention is given to remittances from developed countries particularly the United States there are substantial intra-regional remittance flows too A 2003 study of Costa Rica and Nicaragua revealed that about one-third of remittances received in Nicaragua are sent from Costa Rica Since Mexico is the second largest destination of Guatemalan workers after the United States it can easily be concluded that some of the remittances going to Guatemala are coming from Mexico Research conducted for IADB estimated that in 2002 about US $1 5 billion of the US$32 billion remitted to Latin America and the Caribbean were actually intra-regional Another key indicator of the level of adaptive capacity is the infrastructure for basic services In most of the countries selected for this assessment the majority of the population is concentrated in urban areas and the largest urban areas are found in the coastal areas of the countries Basic infrastructure services such as water electricity and sewage are important elements in the ability to reduce and recover from the impact of such extreme events as hurricanes floods and droughts Table 3 depicts the level of basic infrastructure in some of the selected countries 63 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Another key contributor to adaptive capacity is the extent of forests in this region Deforestation is a significant environmental issue for every country selected for this report Puerto Rico does not suffer from this environmental problem According to the IPCC assessment xlviii by 2010 the forest areas in Central America will be reduced by 1 2 Mha These areas are projected to be used for pasture and expanding livestock production Table 10 illustrates the loss in forest area by country from 1990 to 2005 During this timeframe Cuba was the only country that experienced increases in forest area Except for the Dominican Republic which maintained the size of its forest area all the other countries have steadily reduced their forests from 6 percent in Costa Rica and Mexico to 37 percent in Honduras Table 10 Forest area and proportion of land area covered by forest Note no data for Panama or Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Several countries in Central America and the Caribbean as well as Mexico have made an effort to increase the amount of protected areas Table 11 shows how the selected countries have changed protected areas from 1990 to 2007 Mexico is the largest contributor having doubled the amount of land under protection and increasing the amount of marine areas many-fold during the same period 64 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 1990 8 912 7 940 7 944 8 006 12 755 13 333 13 266 13 558 3 304 3 309 3 309 416 25 107 31 180 33 077 30 801 30 890 28 821 31 636 76 640 131 775 148 505 180 210 187 004 9 176 10 529 10 529 10 529 158 4 408 2000 2005 1 587 2 498 2 049 158 158 665 35 255 40 660 17 494 67 602   2007   2006   2005   Belice Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México República Dominicana 2000 MARINE PROTECTED AREAS Square kilometers   1990   País     TERRESTRIAL PROTECTED AREAS Square kilometers 2006 2007 2 498 2 498 5 209 5 210 2 071 2 071 206 2 453 2 453 1 155 40 660 45 021 67 602 Table 11 Protected Areas in Selected Latin American and Caribbean Countries Note no data for Haiti Nicaragua Panama and Puerto Rico Source CEPAL ECLAC Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2008 United Nations 2009 Conclusions The systematic evaluation of the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and Central American is only beginning There are many limitations associated with data quality and quantity Most of the countries however are beginning to quantify greenhouse gas inventories and run simulation models to estimate the potential impact associated with projected global average increase in temperatures rise in sea level and changes in rainfall UNDP and ECLAC are beginning a series of studies to quantify the impact of climate change in socio-economic and ecosystems in the region Even if these studies are not yet available leaders in the region now accept that while the region does not contribute to global greenhouse gases in a significant way it is highly vulnerable to the effects generated by severe climate variability This has been observed over the past 20 years and leaders understand that it is critical for them to develop sustainable development policies and to enhance their capabilities to respond and adapt to severe weather events Energy Energy resources production and use vary widely across the countries under review All the countries under review will experience population growth economic growth and industrialization they will increase their need and demand for energy All the countries rely on imported fossil fuels with the exception of Mexico which is a net exporter of energy resources In most countries the largest generator of greenhouse gases is the energy sector Although they are very small contributors to global emissions most countries will benefit from increasing use of renewable energy Most have begun efforts to evaluate and implement small projects such as wind energy in Nicaragua and Costa Rica and an intensive effort in the Dominican Republic to evaluate hydro electricity A griculture The agricultural sector climate related research for most of the countries in this review is limited Where research is available productivity losses are projected for optimist 65 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views moderate and pessimist scenarios for some key food crops with estimates that vary from 10 percent to more than 50 percent by the year 2030 W ater R esources The majority of the population in most of the countries reviewed lives in coastal areas which are highly vulnerable to severe climate changes As populations continue to grow in the same areas increasing water extraction and rising sea levels are expected to have severe impact on the quantity and quality of water available Many of the aquifers of these countries are open to ocean waters and are already experiencing increases in salinity Rising sea levels will accelerate the deterioration of aquifers and available water resources M igration An increase in intra-regional and extra-regional migration during the 1980s and 1990s resulted from social unrest and economic contraction Moreover the inability of countries in the region to adapt and recover from severe climate events with major impacts on their economies will continue to promote migration outside the region in particular to the United States and Canada The large number of immigrants coming to the United States in the past 2025 years will facilitate this movement In addition the observed and projected incidence of diseases and pathogens varies across the countries under review In Central American countries there has been a sharp increase in the number of diseases during the years following ENSO effects The Government of the Dominican Republic has not observed and has not projected a correlation between climate change variability and increases in health effects of its population It is not clear if it is a difference in the quality of information or the limitations of the models used in the initial assessments of each country Although most countries in the Central America and Caribbean region have started to evaluate the impact of climate change in their economic social and natural resources there is limited understanding of the viable options to address the problems Many limitations that exist today on climate change preclude making projections good enough to take action They include limitations in models used quality of data and quantity of relevant data Equally problematic is the limitation of funding to undertake detailed modeling for each country in such a way that the result is information that also ranks evaluates and recommends financial options Although the countries under review have submitted their First National Communications to the UNFCC and Mexico has submitted its third communication significant work and analysis remain Reviewers must still capture the full impact on socio-economic systems and the ability of those systems to recover and adapt to and reduce the effects of severe weather events The first assessments submitted by these countries have laid the foundation for improving models used and for improving the quality and quantity of data The initial studies have also illustrated the gaps that exist between the current level of knowledge and what is needed for the development of policies that will improve the adaptive and response capacities of the countries under review 66 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex A Accuracy of Regional Models This is an excerpt from IPCC 2007 Chapter 11 Regional models see IPCC 2007 for references 9 11 6 2 Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate In the Central America CAM and Amazonia AMZ regions most models in the multi-model dataset MMD have a cold bias of 0°C to 3°C except in AMZ in September October and November SON In southern South America SSA average biases are close to zero The biases are unevenly geographically distributed The MMD mean climate shows a warm bias around 30°S particularly in summer and in parts of central South America especially in SON Over the rest of South America central and northern Andes eastern Brazil Patagonia the biases tend to be predominantly negative The SST biases along the western coasts of South America are likely related to weakness in oceanic upwelling For the CAM region the multi-model scatter in precipitation is substantial but half of the models lie in the range of –15 to 25 percent in the annual mean The largest biases occur during the boreal winter and spring seasons when precipitation is meager For both AMZ and SSA the ensemble annual mean climate exhibits drier than observed conditions with about 60 percent of the models having a negative bias Unfortunately this choice of regions for averaging is particularly misleading for South America since it does not clearly bring out critical regional biases such as those related to rainfall underestimation in the Amazon and La Plata Basins Simulation of the regional climate is seriously affected by model deficiencies at low latitudes In particular the MMD ensemble tends to depict a relatively weak Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ITCZ which extends southward of its observed position The simulations have a systematic bias towards underestimated rainfall over the Amazon Basin The simulated subtropical climate is typically also adversely affected by a dry bias over most of south-eastern South America and in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone especially during the rainy season In contrast rainfall along the Andes and in northeast Brazil is excessive in the ensemble mean Some aspects of the simulation of tropical climate with AOGCMs have improved However in general the largest errors are found where the annual cycle is weakest such as over tropical South America see e g Section 8 3 Atmospheric GCMs approximate the spatial distribution of precipitation over the tropical Americas but they do not correctly reproduce the temporal evolution of the annual cycle in precipitation specifically the mid-summer drought Magaña and Caetano 2005 Tropical cyclones are important contributors to precipitation in the region If 67 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views close to the continent they will produce large amounts of precipitation over land and if far from the coast moisture divergence over the continental region enhances drier conditions Zhou and Lau 2002 analyse the precipitation and circulation biases in a set of six AGCMs provided by the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon AGCM Intercomparison Project Kang et al 2002 This model ensemble captures some large-scale features of the South American monsoon system reasonably well including the seasonal migration of monsoon rainfall and the rainfall associated with the South America Convergence Zone However the South Atlantic subtropical high and the Amazonia low are too strong whereas low-level flow tends to be too strong during austral summer and too weak during austral winter The model ensemble captures the Pacific-South American pattern quite well but its amplitude is generally underestimated Regional climate models RCMs are still being tested and developed for this region Relatively few studies using RCMs for Central and South America exist and those that do are constrained by short simulation length Some studies Chou et al 2000 Nobre et al 2001 Druyan et al 2002 examine the skill of experimental dynamic downscaling of seasonal predictions over Brazil Results suggest that both more realistic GCM forcing and improvements in the RCMs are needed Seth and Rojas 2003 performed seasonal integrations driven by reanalyses with emphasis on tropical South America The model was able to simulate the different rainfall anomalies and large-scale circulations but as a result of weak low-level moisture transport from the Atlantic rainfall over the western Amazon was underestimated Vernekar et al 2003 follow a similar approach to study the low-level jets and report that the RCM produces better regional circulation details than does the reanalysis However an ensemble of four RCMs did not provide a noticeable improvement in precipitation over the driving large-scale reanalyses Roads et al 2003 Other studies Misra et al 2003 Rojas and Seth 2003 analyze seasonal RCM simulations driven by AGCM simulations Relative to the AGCMs regional models generally improve the rainfall simulation and the tropospheric circulation over both tropical and subtropical South America However AGCM-driven RCMs degrade compared with the reanalyses-driven integrations and they could even exacerbate the dry bias over sectors of AMZ and perpetuate the erroneous ITCZ over the neighboring ocean basins from the AGCMs Menéndez et al 2001 used a RCM driven by a stretched-grid AGCM with higher resolution over the southern midlatitudes to simulate the winter climatology of SSA They find that both the AGCM and the regional model have similar systematic errors but the biases are reduced in the RCM Analogously other RCM simulations for SSA give too little precipitation over the subtropical plains and too much over elevated terrain e g Nicolini et al 2002 Menéndez et al 2004 9 Some references in this section have been changed to be internally consistent with this document and other references have been removed to avoid confusion 68 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Annex B Information Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Central America the Caribbean and the Region’s Adaptive Capacity Regional leaders have not addressed the problem of the projected impact of climate change with possible policy changes or infrastructure investments because of a lack of systematic analysis that quantifies and qualifies the potential impact to the region This lack of rigorous analysis restricts the development of relevant and economically viable options There are significant gaps in the ability to fully understand all the dimensions of climate change at the economic social and or environmental level in the region in a systematic way There are gaps and deficiencies in data systematic methodologies analysis and tools to monitor share and track information and events at the local national and regional levels Efforts are starting to be made to reduce these gaps Several entities at the national and regional levels are working to develop better analytical methods and information-sharing as well as better data and availability To increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of projected climate change and its impact in Central America and the Caribbean as well as the region’s adaptive capacity the following gaps would need to be addressed • In physical science research regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily including complexities arising from the interaction of global regional and local processes Uncertainties in the occurrence and impact of the ENSO phenomenon hurricane activity and storm surges for example leave important gaps in knowledge needed for climate projections One gap of particular interest is the lack of medium-term 20-30 years projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes Similarly scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas Research agendas in these areas can be found in the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program http www climatescience gov for instance and the National Academy of Sciences e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 11175#toc Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected • In social science research scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors in vulnerability resilience and adaptive capacity much less their interactions and evolution Again research agendas on vulnerability adaptation and decision-making abound e g http books nap edu catalog php record_id 12545 • Important factors are unaccounted for in research scientists know what some of them are but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain Modelers assumed that the 69 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views exchange was about equal and the only factor modeled was deforestation This assumption of course made the models inadequate for their purposes In another example ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests e g the pine bark beetle • Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior and mitigation adaptation policies but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions the lack of knowledge about motivation intent and behavior is a serious shortcoming Overall research about the impact of climate change on the Central America and Caribbean region has been undertaken piecemeal discipline by discipline sector by sector with political implications separately considered from physical effects Outside the National Communications small-scale case studies have been done but little systematic analysis This lack of rigorous analysis can be remedied by integrated research into the energy economic environmental and political conditions and possibilities 70 This paper does not represent US Government views … 1994 1994 … … 1994 1995 1994 1994 … 1998 1998 1997 1997 1998 1996 1997 1995 1998 1997 k 1990 1977 1981 1991 1979 1980 1979 1984 1979 1985 … 1998 1999 1998 1998 … 1999 1998 1998 … F 2003 2002 2002 1998 1999 2005 2000 2000 1999 2002 P Kyoto 1986 1975 1990 1987 1979 1985 1991 1977 1986 l F … 1999 1998 1999 … … … … … … P 2005 2008 1999 2005 2008 2006 Rotterdam 2007 2008 2007 m 1982 1982 1982 1984 1983 1982 1982 1982 1984 1982 2000 2000 2000 … 2000 2000 2000 2000 … F 2004 2007 2002 2003 2004 2002 2002 2006 P C artagena 1983 1992 1984 1997 1996 1993 1983 2000 e n … … … … … … … 198 5 … … f 2002 2002 2001 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2001 2001 2007 2007 2008 2008 2005 2003 2005 2007 Es tocolmo Stockholm F P 1997 1991 1992 1992 1987 2000 1993 1987 1993 1993 Viena Vienna F P o … … … … … … … 1987 … … F 1998 1991 1992 1992 1989 2000 1993 1988 1993 1993 P Mon treal g 1990 1989 1989 1989 71 This paper does not represent US Government views 1997 1995 1994 1991 1995 1995 1991 1997 1999 Basilea Basel F P j UNFCCC The United Nations Fr amework Convention on Climate Change 1992 k UNCCD The United Nations Con vention to Combat Desertification in Those Countries Experiencing Ser ious Drought and or Desertification 1994 l Kyoto The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 m Rotter dam The Rotter dam Co nvention on the Prior Informed Cons ent Procedure for Cartain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Tra de 1998 n Cartagena The Car tagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity 2000 o Stockholm The Stockholm Convention on Persistnt Organic Pollutants 2001 p The year that the countries signed the agreement is no t available q All the cou ntries that are party to this convention signed it between 1973 and 1974 the period in which the c onvention was open for signature Source CEPAL- Anuario Estadistico 2008 Belice Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador Guatemala Haití Honduras México Nicaragua República Dominicana Country 1998 1991 2001 1999 1990 1993 1986 1997 2002 Belice Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador Guatemala Haití Honduras México Nicaragua República Dominicana Derecho del c Especies mar a p Patrimonio b p CITES q migratorias d r Heritage CMS Law of the Sea P P EV F P Desertificación UNCCD F P P Country Ramsar Year of signature and year that the country beca me party to the agreement through ratification accep tance a pproval or adhesion MULTILATERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS h 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 F 1993 1994 1994 1994 1995 1996 1995 1993 1995 1996 P Biological Diversity 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1995 1993 1995 1998 i Cambio Climático UNFCCC j F P Annex C Environmental Agreements Signed by Selected Latin American and Caribbean Countries This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 72 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views ____________________________________ i Information for the following brief descriptions is from Central Intelligence Agency CIA The 2008 World Factbook https www cia gov library publications the-world-factbook index html accessed May 14 2009 ii Loretta Burke and Jonathan Maidens “Haiti ” in Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean World Resources Institute 2004 http www wri org publication content 7889 iii J E Oliver ed “Central America and the Caribbean ” in Encyclopedia of World Climatology Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series Dordrecht Springer 2005 iv J J McCarthy O F Canziani N A Leary D J Dokken and K S White eds Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2001 v T C Peterson et al “Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region ” Journal of Geophysical Research 107 2002 4601 doi 10 1029 2002JD002251 2002 vi J T Houghton D A Callander and S K Varney eds Climate Change 1992 The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1998 vii M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson eds Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 viii J D Neelin M Münnich H Su J E Meyerson and C E Holloway “Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations ” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 April 18 2006 16 ix The Bahamas “First National Communication on Climate Change to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” Nassau The Bahamas Environment Science and Technology Commission April 2001 x The Bahamas “First National Communication on Climate Change to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” Nassau The Bahamas Environment Science and Technology Commission April 2001 xi J A Pounds M P L Fogden and J H Campbell “Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain ” Nature 398 1999 611 –615 xii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES eds Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 http www ipcc ch ipccreports sres emission index htm xiii J H Christensen and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xiv J H Christensen and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xv J H Christensen and B Hewitson “Regional Climate Projections ” in Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Miller Jr and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xvi M Angeles et al “Predictions of future climate change in the Caribbean region using global general circulation models ” International Journal of Climatology 27 5 2007 555-569 xvii A V Karmalkar R S Bradley and H F Diaz “Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation for Central America Using PRECIS Regional Climate Model ” American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting San Francisco 2008 xviii A V Karmalkar R S Bradley and H F Diaz “Climate change scenario for Costa Rican montane forests ” Geophysical Research Letters 35 2008 73 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xix N Nakicenovic and R Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2000 xx J P Kossin et al A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends Geophysical Research Letters Vol 34 L04815 doi 10 1029 2006GL028836 2007 xxi K E Trenberth and D J Shea “Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005 ” Geophysical Research Letters 33 2006 L12704 doi 10 1029 2006GL026894 xxii K E Trenberth and D J Shea “Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005 ” Geophysical Research Letters 33 2006 L12704 doi 10 1029 2006GL026894 xxiii J Leggett W Pepper R J Swart J A Edmonds L G Meira Filho I Mintzer M X Wang and J Watson “Emissions scenarios for the IPCC an update assumptions methodology and results ” in Climate Change 1992 The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment eds J T Houghton B A Callander and S K Varney Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1992 xxiv Belize “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” July 2002 http unfccc int national_reports non-annex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxv Cuba “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” September 2001 http unfccc int national_reports nonannex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxvi Dominican Republic “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” June 2003 http unfccc int national_reports nonannex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxvii Guatemala “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” December 2001 http unfccc int national_reports nonannex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxviii Based on Ortiz 2007a Ortiz 2007b Ortiz et al 1998 and Ortiz and SOPASAL 2000 xxix Republique D’Haiti “Premiere Communication Nationale sur les Changements Climatiques ” August 2001 http unfccc int national_reports non-annex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxx Ministère de L’Environnement Programme Changements Climatiques République d’Haïti Plan D’Action National D’Adaptation October 2006 xxxi United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http unfccc int essential_background library items 3599 php rec j priref 5838 accessed 21 May 2009 xxxii Honduras “First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” November 2000 http unfccc int national_reports nonannex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxxiii Mexico “Third National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” November 2006 http unfccc int national_reports nonannex_i_natcom items 2979 php xxxiv C Conde R Ferrer and S Orozco “Climate change and climate variability impcts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures a Mexican case study ” Atmósfera 19 2006 no 3 181-194 xxxv C Conde R Ferrer and S Orozco “Climate change and climate variability impcts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures a Mexican case study ” Atmósfera 19 2006 no 3 181-194 p 183 xxxvi M B Wehbe R A Seiler M R Vinocur H Eakin C Santos and H M Civitaresi “Social methods for assessing agricultural producers’ vulnerability to climate variability and change based on the notion of sustainability ” AIACC Working Paper 19 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations of Climate Change Project funded by the Global Environment Facility US Agency for International Development the Canadian International Development Agency and the US Environmental Protection Agency 2005 www aiaccproject org xxxvii C A Salinas-Zavala and D B Lluch-Cota “Relationship between ENSO and winter-wheat yields in Sonora Mexico ” Geofísica Internacional 42 2003 no 3 341-350 74 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views xxxviii A L Luers D B Lobell L S Sklar C L Addams and P A Matson “A method for quantifying vulnerability applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley Mexico ” Global Environmental Change 13 2003 255-267 xxxix A L Luers D B Lobell L S Sklar C L Addams and P A Matson “A method for quantifying vulnerability applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley Mexico ” Global Environmental Change 13 2003 255-267 p 265 xl R Boyd and M E Ibarrarán “Extreme climate events and adaptation an exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico” Environment and Development Economics in press xli E Umaña “Agroambiente y Cambio Climatico Impactos del Cambio Climatico Sobre Sistemas Agrarios Medio Ambiente” Nicaragua Universidad Nacional Agraria Facultad De Recursos Naturales y Der Ambiente FARENA 2003 xlii D Espinosa A Mendez I Madrid and R Rivera “Assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Panama the case of the La Villa Chiriqui and Chagres river basins Climate Research 9 1997 131-137 xliii N Guindin A Weiss and L Pérez-Alegría “Impact of climate change on water availability for a bioenergy project in the Lajas Valley Puerto Rico xliv Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC “Glossary ” in Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 xlv G Yohe and R Tol “Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity ” Global Environmental Change 12 2002 25-40 xlvi E L Malone and A L Brenkert “Vulnerability sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity worldwide ” in The Distributional Effects of Climate Change Social and Economic Implications eds M Ruth and M Ibarraran Dordrecht Elsevier Science in press xlvii UNEP-GRID-Arendal “Climate impacts of El Niño phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean Maps and Graphics Library 2005 http maps grida no go graphic climate_impacts_of_el_ni_o_phenomenon_in_latin_america_and_the_caribbean Accessed 18 May 2009 xlviii M L Parry O F Canziani J P Palutikof P J van der Linden and C E Hanson eds Climate Change 2007 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 75 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 76 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 77 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views India The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2009-07 May 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For India the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report India Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-03 of April 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determines if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for India • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security In March of 2009 CENTRA Technology Inc convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on India through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists economists and political scientists While the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030 the perceptions of decision makers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist serving as the Executive Agent for the DNI supported and funded the contract 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council sponsored workshop entitled Implications of Global Climate Change in India on March 27 2009 brought together a panel of India experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on India from a social political and economic perspective The panelists judged the practical effects of climate change on India were uncertain but they concluded India will most likely be able to manage them out to 2030 • Agriculture and rural society will face the most severe disruptions from climate change India may need a second “Green Revolution”1 to deal with these disruptions • Climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within India and from neighboring countries particularly Bangladesh Refugee flows from other South Asian states are also possible Internal migrations will mainly be from rural areas into India’s cities which are ill-equipped to deal with large influxes of environmental migrants • Climate change will in many cases exacerbate existing inequities in India’s society and economy potentially leading to internal social disruptions • While a general state failure in India is unlikely India may accumulate a number of failed constituent states The states most at risk are the densely-populated underdeveloped and politically unstable states of India’s northeastern agricultural heartland Beyond 2030 India’s ability to cope is unclear The principal regional challenges generated by climate change in South Asia will most likely be cross-border migration and water scarcity The lack of effective regional institutions longstanding political disputes and India’s preference for bilateral regional diplomacy will inhibit regional cooperation in confronting these issues • The region has a mixed record on resolving water disputes As river flows decline water disputes will intensify leading to increased tension with Pakistan Bangladesh and China • Climate change may cause humanitarian crises or state failures in one or more of India’s neighbors including its nuclear-armed rival Pakistan A number of factors nevertheless inhibit India from aggressively pursuing climate change mitigation • The priority of the Indian state is sustained economic growth in order to alleviate poverty and keep up with strategic competitors—mainly China India will not sacrifice growth for the sake of climate change mitigation • India views climate change mitigation as primarily the responsibility of the developed countries 1 “Green Revolution” refers to development and deployment of new agricultural products and techniques to improve productivity 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Although the state is engaged in planning climate change mitigation policies India tends to be slow and ineffective in executing such plans due to bureaucratic inertia lack of political will and corruption Indian foreign policy is focused primarily on enhancing trade investment and access to advanced technology as well as achieving strategic parity with China • India prefers that international standards and regulations on climate change mitigation be voluntary and take development targets into account • India perceives the United States and other developed countries should have a greater stake in reaching a climate change agreement It has therefore adopted a maximalist negotiating position that will make any agreement very difficult • India’s position on climate change equity and responsibility is consistent with the articulated policy of China and most developing countries • India would be most anxious about any US attempt to strike a private climate change agreement with China India is nevertheless open to persuasion on alternative paths to growth that not only address climate change effectively but that in the long run will be better for sustainable growth • India is open to climate change mitigation policies that take its development needs and strategic interests into account It would accept subsidies and technology transfers in exchange for its compliance on international climate change standards Despite the serious climate related challenges India may be subjected to in the next two decades India is a large and resilient state and society with considerable coping capacity • India has a long history of dealing with crises and has institutionalized methods of handling and mitigating them even with limited resources • Indian economic growth continues to increase both state and private sector capacity India will have increasing resources and capabilities at its disposal to deal with climate change-induced challenges • India has institutional buffers which aid in preserving overall stability such as its democratic and federalized political system • India’s well-developed and resilient civil society provides a reserve of institutional capital expertise and innovation that can be applied to climate change-induced problems 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Social Political and Economic Challenges Overall Socio-Economic Challenges Agricultural Challenges Energy Challenges Urban Challenges 9 9 10 11 12 Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Interest Groups in Civil Society Prospects for Civil Conflict 12 13 15 State Response State Priorities State Capacity Prospects for State Failure State Climate Change Mitigation Policies 16 16 17 18 19 Regional Implications Geopolitics in South Asia Regional Water Issues Cross-Border Migration Prospects for Regional Conflict Prospects for Regional Cooperation on Climate Change Mitigation 21 21 22 23 25 26 Overall Foreign Policy Implications India’s Foreign Policy Stance on Climate Issues Indo-American Relations The Copenhagen Negotiations 26 26 27 29 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background India is both a major greenhouse gas emitter and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to projected climate change The country is already experiencing changes in climate and the impacts of climate change including water stress heat waves and drought severe storms and flooding and associated negative consequences on health and livelihoods With a 1 2 billion but growing population and dependence on agriculture India probably will be severely impacted by continuing climate change Global climate projections given inherent uncertainties indicate several changes in India’s future climate • Global observations of melting glaciers suggest that climate change is well under way in the region with glaciers receding at an average rate of 10–15 meters per year If the rate increases flooding is likely in river valleys fed by these glaciers followed by diminished flows resulting in water scarcity for drinking and irrigation • All models show a trend of general warming in mean annual temperature as well as decreased range of diurnal temperature and enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent A warming of 0 5oC is likely over all India by the year 2030 approximately equal to the warming over the 20th century and a warming of 2-4oC by the end of this century with the maximum increase over northern India Increased warming is likely to lead to higher levels of tropospheric ozone pollution and other air pollution in the major cities • Increased precipitation⎯including monsoonal rains⎯is likely to come in the form of fewer rainy days but more days of extreme rainfall events with increasing amounts of rain in each event leading to significant flooding Drizzle-type precipitation that replenishes soil moisture is likely to decrease Most global models suggest that the Indian summer monsoons will intensify The timing may also shift causing a drying during the late summer growing season Climate models also predict an earlier snowmelt which could have a significant adverse effect on agricultural production Growing emissions of aerosols from energy production and other sources may suppress rainfall leading to drier conditions with more dust and smoke from the burning of drier vegetation affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production Uncertainties about monsoonal changes will affect farmers’ choices about which crops to plant and the timing of planting reducing productivities In addition earlier seasonal snowmelt and depleting glaciers will reduce river flow needed for irrigation The large segment of poor people including smallholder farmers and landless agricultural workers may be hardest hit requiring government relief programs on a massive scale Finally migration especially from Bangladesh may strain resources and India-Bangladesh relations The most important impacts of climate change will likely include the following • Agriculture High-input high-output agriculture will be negatively affected even as demands for food and other agricultural products rise because of an increasing population and expectations for an improved standard of living Millions of subsistence and smallholder farmers will experience hardship and hunger through being less able to predict climate conditions To a certain extent trade may compensate for these deficits 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Water Glacier melt may yield more runoff in the short term but less in the medium and long terms More severe storms especially cyclones will cause more damage to infrastructure and livelihoods and exacerbate salt water intrusion in storm surges Changes in the timing and amount of monsoon rains will make the production of food and other agricultural products more uncertain so that even in good-weather years farmers will be more likely to make decisions leading to lower-productivity • Exacerbation of Inequality The welfare of those who are affected by climate change and who have limited means to adapt may act as a force that can change governments strain public budgets and foster unrest About one-third of Indians are extremely poor and 60 percent depend upon agriculture for their livelihoods • Energy As India searches for additional sources of energy to meet rising demand climate change mitigation efforts may constrain its use of indigenous and imported coal oil and gas while development of nuclear energy will be slow at best and likely to encounter opposition Other non-emitting technologies will require technology transfer and capacity-building • Migration India receives immigrants from a number of countries Under climate change conditions it may be flooded with many more particularly from Bangladesh Such migration may exacerbate tension between the two countries as well as putting a strain on Indian central and state governments Adaptive capacity in India varies by state geographical region and socioeconomic status Studies point to influential factors such as water availability food security human and social capital and the ability of government state and national levels to buffer its people during tough times Where adaptive capacity is low the potential is greater for impacts to result in displaced people deaths and damage from heat floods and storms and conflicts over natural resources and assets 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges India faces an array of formidable existing social economic and political challenges such as poverty low standards of health and low agricultural productivity that will most likely be intensified by the effects of climate change While experts are uncertain how climate change will affect India it is likely to result in increased competition for scarce resources increased stress on economic social and political systems across the board and greater risk of extreme disruptive events such as severe droughts floods or storms India’s decisionmakers will need to balance between sustaining rapid growth combating poverty building social safety nets and building greater capacity to deal with climate crises in order to succeed in the next century A particular concern is the emergence of ‘tipping points’ where worsening climate change impacts surpass the capacity of Indian institutions infrastructure and society to handle them Although in many cases such ‘tipping points’ may result in serious but incremental worsening of ongoing challenges they might also result in catastrophic failures Overall Socio-Economic Challenges Poverty Indians consider poverty the most severe and pressing social challenge to the country India has achieved significant success in combating poverty beginning in the early 1980s Almost sixty percent of the Indian population lived in poverty in 1980 That has been cut in half with the fastest decline in the period since the economy began to grow significantly in the mid1990s While anti-poverty programs have helped the key to bringing down the incidence of poverty on a sustained basis has been rapid growth India has grown four percent or more in per capita terms since the late 1980s as opposed to less than two percent from 1950-80 During the last five years 2003-08 the per capita growth rate has been as high as 7 3 percent Despite the significant improvement about one-third of the population about 400 million people lives on less than a dollar a day India is thus home to the world’s largest number of poor people and climate change is likely to significantly increase the proportion of Indians living below the poverty line A disproportionate number of the poor are landless workers and marginal farmers who bear the greatest burden from disruptions to agriculture The rural poor suffer from overlapping disadvantages These include the growing incidence of casual labor lack of alternative employment in labor-intensive manufacturing low educational levels and inadequate training programs for entry level jobs in the organized industrial and services sectors Natural calamities such as floods heavy rains and droughts will most adversely impact poor populations that are less able to protect themselves from the vagaries of nature Inequality Paradoxically while India is intensely stratified culturally and economically inequality receives a great deal less attention in India than in the international community as a whole The focus in India is on growth rather than distributive justice Impending climate change may focus much greater attention on inequality The impacts of climate change in India will be distributed very unequally In some cases this may actually reduce existing inequities For example flooding may concentrate in more prosperous states such as the southern coastal states Maharashtra and Gujarat Increased temperatures and shifts in rain patterns may increase agricultural yields in previously disadvantaged areas Despite the possibility of such optimistic outcomes the majority of climate change impacts will most likely exacerbate existing inequities While there is little evidence that climate change will benefit the richer segments of the population their far greater capacity to handle climate change9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views induced challenges will widen the gap between rich and poor Climate change is expected to have greater adverse effects on agricultural rather than industrial output and it will exacerbate rural-urban inequality Climatic challenges will obviously be more severe in particular regions increasing cross-regional inequality Regional climatic inequalities may coincide with and reinforce existing economic inequities For example increased flooding may disproportionately impact poor coastal states such as Orissa and droughts may strike in lower per-capita income states such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan Furthermore the burden of hardships and natural disasters such as floods will fall disproportionately on female members of the poor families contributing to an increased gender gap Public Health The relationship between climate change and health outcomes is complex If temperature rises in warmer parts of the country heat waves may become more intense and longer lasting resulting in increased incidence of heat stroke and related diseases Warmer climate also worsens air pollution and increases the potency of airborne diseases Floods and droughts may lead to water contamination and worsen unsanitary conditions increasing incidence of diseases such as malaria or dysentery The government is behind the curve in addressing public health problems Corruption and inefficiency have been ongoing problems in the healthcare system as well as in other social services such as education While considerable money and resources have been invested in primary health centers and community health centers in India studies demonstrate that most of the health services-related money goes to private individuals who often only have a high school diploma The lack of oversight allows many state-assigned healthcare providers to use the healthcare stipend from the state to supplement other forms of income while not providing healthcare services to the public As a result the public is forced to go to willing but sometimes unqualified private individuals to receive healthcare services As climate change worsens the public health challenge India will require renewed vigor in implementing major policy reforms in the health sector India needs to accelerate medical education at all levels to ensure access to trained medical personnel It also needs to improve access to medicine and implement public health measures to combat the spread of infectious diseases by ensuring proper drainage and supply of clean drinking water Agricultural Challenges India’s agricultural sector—considered the Achilles’ heel of the Indian economy—faces a major systemic crisis even without additional stress from climate change Despite the Green Revolution significant portions of the agricultural sector are locked in a labor-intensive inefficient and marginally productive model that is increasingly not viable To compound the problem this already stressed sector will suffer the greatest direct impact from climate change Agriculture generates less than 18 percent of India’s GDP and this figure is rapidly declining The decline in the economic importance of agriculture as the industrial and service sectors have expanded is misleading when considering the impact of climate change Seventy percent of Indians live in rural areas and nearly 65 percent of the workforce is engaged in farming so challenges to agriculture will directly affect the majority of the Indian population The Indian agricultural states in which the impact of climate change is likely to be most severe are also those which have the lowest growth rates and the highest concentration of the poor The states most at risk are in India’s northeast including the most populous states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh which have a combined population of 250 million as well as the adjacent states of West 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Bengal and Orissa As agriculture becomes more difficult and more capital-intensive marginal and small farmers will be forced to sell their land economic inequality in the villages is likely to increase and mid-sized farms will become less economically viable unless farmers switch to high-end cash crops such as wine grapes and flowers Food Security Gains in productivity from India’s successful Green Revolution allowed India to achieve self-sufficiency in food a source of great national pride Nevertheless projected climate change impacts will put pressure on India to make more effective use of its comparative advantages and turn away from self-sufficiency and towards crop specialization and trade on the international markets to maintain its food security If such a transition does not begin early and achieve success India could once again face acute food shortages due to more frequent disruptions and overall declines in agricultural productivity as a result of climate change The Rural Labor Surplus Once food security occurred the principal problem for Indian agriculture was to determine what to do with India’s enormous excess rural population Industry and services will have to take over as the mainstays of Indian employment but will take time to expand to meet that challenge In the near term agricultural employment has to be maintained at high levels in order to keep the migration of labor into urban areas to a rate that Indian industrial expansion can accommodate The surplus of rural labor has therefore favored the persistence of small labor-intensive traditional farms This keeps a larger-than-optimal population in areas at risk from climate change increasing their susceptibility to marginal disruptions limits the development of excess agricultural capacity to deal with climatic constraints and discourages adoption of more efficient technological solutions that could aid in providing a response to climate change Widespread climate stresses such as major droughts or floods could disrupt the village structure across entire regions of the country putting tens of millions at risk Flooding Flooding generated both by increases in runoff from melting Himalayan glaciers and more frequent severe storms will pose a major threat to India’s heavily populated river plains In low-lying coastal areas sea level rise and storm surges will create similar challenges with the added dimension of saltwater intrusion rendering soil infertile Increased seasonal flooding is already affecting productivity in the state of Bihar and more frequent major floods could disrupt agriculture and displace millions from the Indian agricultural heartland Droughts and Water Scarcity In the longer term glacial melting will reach a tipping point where increased river flows from runoff subside replaced by serious water shortages as the smaller ice mass provides less water to feed India’s rivers The flows of the Indus Ganges and Brahmaputra could be dramatically reduced and many other rivers could become seasonal The Gangetic plain home to nearly half of India’s population may face a decrease in the water table to levels close to those in arid Gujarat Such a development would threaten the sustainability of the agrarian economy across the northern Indian plain In the northwestern states of Punjab Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh depleting water tables increasing soil salinity and micronutrient deficiencies have already made wheat and rice crops that use intensive irrigation and nitrogenous fertilizer unsustainable In addition India will face more frequent and severe droughts long before the transition to sustained water scarcity Energy Challenges Just to maintain its current growth rate India will need to more than double its energy consumption by 2020 The bulk of India’s energy comes from fossil fuels and India is poised to become a major contributor to global warming as emissions from power generation industry 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and transportation increase The country remains gravely under-electrified with over 40 percent of the population without access and another 20 to 40 percent without reliable and regular access Nevertheless the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation—about 80 percent of electricity is generated from indigenous and imported coal oil and gas—has kept electricity relatively cheap As urbanization and mobility requirements rise apace the demand for modern forms of power and transportation are bound to rise considerably faster than the combined growth of population and per capita income Climate change will impact India’s energy needs in several respects Temperature increases and migration into urban areas can be expected to generate increased demand for electricity and other forms of energy which is already growing as India’s economy grows and becomes more industrial Climate change will reduce demand for winter heating and raise demand for summer cooling Hydroelectric capacity could be substantially reduced by a diminution of river flows reducing the potential for it to substitute for fossil fuels in power generation Some studies suggest climate change may adversely affect the efficiency of power generation and transmission In addition climate change mitigation policies such as caps on emissions and the necessity of developing cleaner energy production could impose greater constraints on the expansion of energy production in India Urban Challenges India’s cities will face increased challenges from climate change although the direct effects on India’s cities and towns may be less disruptive than those on rural areas Overcrowding and poor air quality are already serious problems in India’s cities and these challenges will be worsened by climate change Indian urban infrastructure is poorly developed and over-stressed in most cities Floods and heavy rains are likely to collapse or sweep away shanties and makeshift urban dwellings where many of the urban poor live Water scarcity due to glacial melting and shifts in rain patterns will reduce the supply of drinking water at the same time that migration into the cities increases the demand Most significantly the severe rural challenges will most likely be exported to the cities A mass migration of displaced rural population into the cities could overwhelm critical urban systems such as health transportation housing energy and water An influx of environmental refugees from the countryside also raises a serious challenge in terms of employment Even if economic growth continues at a high rate urban economies will have a difficult time accommodating large numbers of new workers particularly if they arrive in surges due to climate change disruptions in rural areas It is also unclear to what degree rural migrants will be absorbed into India’s urban society Conflicts between established urban populations and rural migrants could become a serious problem particularly if employment is at issue Civil and Key Interest Group Responses India has developed an impressive and active civil society which will play an important role in the adaptations necessary within the 2030 timeframe The level of political mobilization and social engagement in India’s diverse society of 1 1 billion people is high Societal actors ranging from NGOs and think tanks to the expanding middle class are already playing an increasingly important role in managing India’s social economic and political challenges and this role can be fairly easily extended to dealing with climate change Given the reluctance of India’s government to make tough decisions on environmental issues pressure and lobbying from civil society and NGOs has been critical in generating the will to move forward on 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views mitigation policies Strong issue leadership from civil groups may well be critical in altering Indian public opinion and state perspectives on climate change responses Interest Groups in Civil Society The key interest groups in India are modern incarnations of the traditional mass-mobilizing agents of caste class and religion Chambers of Commerce Trade Unions womens’ groups and student organizations all play a role in society and politics but they and other associations are secondary to the traditional groups The interaction between the traditional groups is complex and often contentious They do not represent monolithic blocks of interests particularly on issues such as climate change which will have widely differing impacts on different regions and communities In many localities the political environment is dominated by shifting coalitions between traditional groups some leading some supporting and some marginalized Traditional distinctions will come into play most forcefully if climate change produces very disproportionate effects on a particular group Traditional civil groups may provide a reserve of social resilience and support networks that may help Indian society cope with climate change-induced challenges On the other hand traditional power structures may undermine state capacity by producing weak coalition governments corruption of the administration and police and the breakdown of law and order in some areas The Poor India’s poorest citizens are the least equipped to handle climate change-induced challenges but are likely to be the most severely affected by them The majority of the poor are rural but an increasing proportion are not tied to the land The percentage of landless laborers rose from 17 percent in 1961 to 32 percent in 1991 Many of the poor are therefore likely to respond to climate change-induced challenges by migrating out of affected areas Much of this migration will most likely be into cities and towns rather than into other rural areas The urbanization of the poor will concentrate the burden on India’s inadequate social services but may provide some insulation from the greater effects climate change will have on rural populations The Indian poor have also tended to rapidly accept environmental innovations because they are acutely vulnerable to negative environmental impacts Although disaffection and unrest can be expected to increase as the poor face a more challenging environment India’s democratic system provides an outlet for their frustrations Indian voting patterns are unique among large democracies in that the poor turn out in proportionately greater numbers to vote than those with higher incomes Numbers count in a democracy and the poor are learning to use their political clout to make demands on the government If the Indian poor become persuaded that climate change mitigation is critical to their quality of life they can become a potent lever to push the state into action The Middle Class A substantial and growing middle class has reinforced the previously small social and political elite The Indian middle class is a mélange of groups from all religions castes and regions based on income professional achievements and status aspirations The burgeoning middle class and the wealthy in India have tended not to be receptive to environmental tradeoffs Not only are they somewhat insulated from the worst effects of environmental problems but they have the greatest stake in continuing economic growth and existing distribution patterns It may therefore be more difficult to convince them to acquiesce to climate change mitigation policies than to convince the poor Farmers The growing political power of Indian farmers makes them a key constituency in determining India’s response to climate change Indian farmers like other segments of India’s 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views poor have shown considerable adaptive capacity as demonstrated by the success of the Green Revolution Given proper incentives they will adopt new agricultural practices and crops that will be better able to cope with climatic changes For example the rapid spread of pest-resistant genetically-engineered Bacillus thuringiensis cotton happened largely because of demand from farmers On the other hand their increasing reliance on irrigation water may seriously hinder efforts at settling regional water disputes and could be a major source of civil conflict within and between agricultural regions as water becomes scarcer Think Tanks and Research Institutions Another important part of civil society that will be much needed as climate change impacts occur are the private organizations that collect and disseminate scientific and social knowledge India has a great wealth of environmental and other think-tanks and NGOs and an active print and electronic media network which carries studies and plans of great sophistication The Tata Energy and Resources Institute TERI New Delhi led by Dr Rajendra K Pachauri is India’s foremost center of research and knowledge about energy and the environment Recognition of TERI’s role grew after Dr Pachauri was elected Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC established by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization The IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for its work on climate change in 2007 TERI is joined by other world-class research organizations such as the Centre for Policy Research and the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies national institutions such as the Indian Institutes of Technology the Indian Institutes of Management the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and India’s central universities Many of these research organizations function in partnership with the government and with international organizations of various kinds NGOs have taken on the responsibility of dealing with climate change and have been active in efforts such as water conservation and irrigation rights These national organizations are nevertheless islands of excellence that operate in an ocean of mediocrity Indian civil society as a whole still lacks the comprehensive infrastructure to support their efforts In addition private environmental organizations face the same constraints as the Indian government in terms of uncertain and ambiguous climatic data Private Sector Economic and Industrial Interests Indian industrialization has made private industry an increasingly influential voice in Indian policymaking Private sector competition has grown during the past two decades even in areas traditionally dominated by state enterprises such as railroads airlines ports energy resources banks the regulatory Reserve Bank of India and educational institutions at all levels The Indian private sector in many respects competes with the Indian state Many of the potential climate change mitigation strategies that India might adopt while generated at the state level will have to be implemented substantially by the private sector The private sector may also play a less constructive role many of India’s industrialists as in the United States are lobbying Parliament not to impose carbon caps or adopt other policies to reduce emissions The interests of India’s major industries may have a substantial if not decisive impact on which solutions India turns to in addressing climate-generated challenges The automobile industry for example is threatening to become as much the backbone of the Indian industrial economy and transportation network as it has been in the US if current trends are any indication The auto industry can be expected to lobby hard for investment in roads and highways rather than the 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views more energy-efficient railway system The industry is also driving a mass displacement of the two- and three-wheeled vehicles that today account for a major proportion of Indian motor vehicles by popular affordable four-wheelers such as the Nano—a change that may well result in substantial emissions increases On the other hand the Indian auto industry has moved rapidly into production of electric cars such as the REVA and other fuel-efficient low emission vehicles This may partially mitigate the emissions and energy demand impacts from having more cars on the road Prospects for Civil Conflict It is probable that climate change crises will further energize the discordant elements in India Competition for dwindling resources and the delineation of scapegoats can provide combustible social and political fodder but civil society in India has learned from long experience how to confront and live with adversity To date Indian civil society has been successful in containing but not eliminating social and political violence over environmental issues such as water disputes Climate change-induced challenges may stress social resilience to the breaking point particularly in cases where climatic stresses compound existing socio-economic stresses For example the concentration of negative climate change impacts on the poorest segments of Indian society is likely to intensify perceptions of inequality If current growth and distribution patterns persist this could lead to increased conflicts between social groups These conflicts may not manifest themselves explicitly as economic or class conflicts Many identity conflicts in India that are couched in religious or ethnic terms are in fact masked inequality conflicts Tensions between rural and urban commercial and laboring employed and unemployed groups may play themselves out for example as Hindu-Muslim conflicts India unfortunately has many fault-lines readymade to accommodate such displaced inequality conflicts Minority religious groups such as Sikhs Christians in the northeast and Christians and Muslims in Kerala are very politically active and at times have resorted to insurgent activity The greatest threat to economic and political stability has been mounted by Maoist revolutionaries referred to as Naxalities recruited from among landless laborers and tribes in eastern and central India They have spread their activities from approximately nine percent of India in 2002 to 30 percent in 2008 across 200 backward districts with high poverty levels from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh with the goal of transforming this corridor into a “compact revolutionary region ” The jobless poor in rural and urban areas are a natural recruiting ground for Maoist revolutionaries as well as extremist Hindu groups who use violence against Muslims and Christians which fractured states and local governments will find difficult to diffuse The overall threat posed by climate change-induced civil conflicts will depend on a number of factors including the regional extent of the conflict and size of the groups involved the capacity and response of the local government in affected areas and the number of conflicts taking place simultaneously India successfully handled past sequential crises including the anti-Brahmin movement in Madras now Tamilnadu a communist insurgency in Telangana now part of Andhra Pradesh the 1970s Naxalite violence centered in eastern India followed by the Khalistan movement in Punjab Kashmir violence from 1989-2003 has receded from a major to a minor problem Today India is coping with tribal insurgencies in northeast India and Maoist violence in various areas from central through north India India’s large population large land 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views mass and social diversity can sustain these type of challenges so long as too many do not occur at the same time State Response The scale of anticipated climate change-generated challenges in India dictates that much of the response will have to originate at the level of the national government India has adopted a system of coalition governance emphasizing slow moving consensus and flexibility This government structure suggests that institutional responses to climate change will be slow but effective at a moderate level State Priorities Economic Growth Economic growth has been at the top of the policy agenda of India’s government for the past two decades and is likely to remain the major policy goal of any government that comes to power Indian policymakers view economic growth as a means to achieve fundamental national values regarding poverty alleviation and national security Successive Indian governments have learned that they will face a backlash from the increasingly politicized population if the economy does not grow They confront two choices when faced with continued low economic growth give in to the demands of the poor resulting in the loss of support and violence by the more advantaged or do nothing risking the loss of support of and violence by the poor This provides a powerful political incentive to sustain high economic growth rates Indian policymakers are committed to sustaining nine to 10 percent growth annually for at least the next 10 to 20 years Climate mitigation proposals are more likely to be adopted if India’s policymakers can be convinced that such proposals enhance economic growth When announcing India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change in June 2008 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh emphasized the overriding priority of maintaining high economic growth rates in determining which climate mitigation proposals to adopt He said the Action Plan “identifies measures that promote our development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively ” He went on to state that these measures would be more successful with assistance from developed countries and pledged that India’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions “will at no point exceed that of developed countries even as we pursue our development objectives ” Poverty Alleviation Reducing poverty is a national mission in India that is ingrained in the political culture India’s policymakers focus on alleviating poverty often to the exclusion of other socio-economic problems such as inequality 2 Indian state planners have adopted the ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ model counting on economic growth and increases in state capacity to improve conditions for all including the most economically disadvantaged Although economic inequality is becoming a more salient issue due to the inequitable patterns of India’s growth it remains far less of a state priority than poverty alleviation This prioritization creates a paradox India is not likely to trade growth for climate change mitigation even if the poor will suffer disproportionately from climate change impacts Indian policymakers perceive continued growth as a means to reduce the ranks of the poor and shrink the size of the groups most at risk 2 Over one-third of the population 34 3 percent lives on less than $1 USD a day 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views National Security The Indian government faces numerous critical national security concerns The most prominent are the inter-related threats from Pakistan and Muslim fundamentalist terrorism The national security concern that may have the greatest impact on climate changerelated decision-making is India’s competition with China for primacy in Asia and in the longer term globally Competition with China is another driver of India’s determination to maintain high rates of economic growth even at the expense of the environment India’s high growth rates started much later than was the case in China and have been partially curtailed by the global economic downturn Indian policymakers feel threatened by China due to China’s lead in economic development ambitious defense modernization program development of new forms of war-fighting such as information warfare support to Pakistan and unresolved territorial claims including a claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh China has developed a deepwater naval base in Pakistan and has similar plans for Myanmar and Bangladesh raising India’s concern regarding strategic encirclement So long as Chinese economic political and military expansion continues India will feel obliged to strive for parity with China Climate Change Policy Because the observable impact of climate change may continue to appear mild or manageable through 2030 Indian policymakers may not feel the sense of urgency needed to drive sustained commitment to long-term mitigation policies and tough trade-offs with development goals International pressure by governments and NGOs may therefore play a crucial role in keeping climate change concerns at the fore of India’s policy agenda The principles underlying India’s 2006 National Environmental Policy NEP are unlikely to be changed The NEP identifies India’s first priority as lifting its citizens out of poverty through development even if this results in greater energy consumption To maintain India’s current growth rate energy demand will more than double by 2020 The firm commitment to continued economic growth means that India’s room to maneuver on climate change policy is constrained by whether the policy options under consideration hinder growth India is unlikely to accept solutions that constrain growth unless it is faced with climate change impacts that would pose an even more disruptive effect than the solutions The Government of India’s June 2008 National Action Plan on Climate Change identifies core national missions to address climate mitigation and adaptation These include missions for promoting use of solar energy incentives for decreasing energy consumption conservation of energy as part of urban planning improvement in water use efficiency conservation measures of biodiversity forest cover and ecological values to protect the Himalayan ecosystem development of climate resistant crops and a new Climate Science Research Fund It is not clear how these “national missions” will be implemented since the government gives equal priority to promoting development while yielding “co-benefits” for climate change State Capacity The Indian state has considerable bureaucratic strength and a long tradition of dealing with crises disasters and scarcity Despite financial and developmental challenges its capacity to cope effectively has improved over time Local drought relief for example has been managed without severe loss of human and animal life in the post-Green Revolution era Many existing approaches and response mechanisms available to the Indian state—some dating back to the British colonial period—can be adapted to deal with climate change impacts Transportation networks have improved greatly allowing the efficient movement of food to deficit areas The state has also managed the system of purchasing of grain to be sold in ration shops or stored in 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views silos and warehouses albeit with a good deal of corruption The systems in place allowed India to forego international aid in the wake of the December 2004 tsunami In addition India’s sustained economic growth over the last decade has led to an unprecedented increase in both state and private sector capacity Whereas in prior crises poverty and underdevelopment have limited the response of the Indian state continued economic growth should increase India’s financial capability to handle climate change Even if India’s growth rates were to decline to around six percent which may reasonably be expected given the global financial slowdown India will have an increasing array of tools and resources at its disposal in confronting climatic challenges India will nevertheless require substantial international assistance in dealing with climate change-induced challenges in terms of money technology and technical assistance State Planning Past performance and current trends suggest that Indian state capacity will continue to expand and should be able to manage increased pressures from climate change effects out to 2030 The uncertainty about regional and local climate change effects will nevertheless inhibit the effectiveness of state planning and responses India’s long term prospects for managing climate change impacts beyond 2030 are more doubtful Uncertainty in climatic trend lines beyond the 2030 timeframe prevents any accurate assessment of the state’s capacity to respond over the longer term If Indian policymakers become preoccupied with mitigating near-term impacts from climate change they will probably not have the leisure to implement measures to deal with more severe effects beyond 2030 Even if climate shifts over the longer term were more certain the Indian democratic system inhibits administrations from planning beyond the next few election cycles Limitations on State Capacity Although India has undertaken initiatives to plan for anticipated climate change impacts it has typically had difficulty executing its plans promptly or effectively On the one hand the vast and layered Indian bureaucracy is a source of state resilience on the other it is very slow to adapt and implement new policies At the policymaking level there has been a general unwillingness to move on climate change mitigation absent pressure from environmental crises popular agitation or lawsuits Pervasive corruption also inhibits state effectiveness The problem is especially acute at the local level where the district court system—the linchpin for the enforcement of rules and regulations and the accountability of the bureaucracy—is fraught with corruption and inefficiency Policy execution is further inhibited by limitations on access to funding efficient technologies and technical expertise Prospects for State Failure Given the moderate projected climate change impacts and India’s increasing state capacity a widespread state failure is unlikely to occur before 2030 Although the challenges facing India are severe the country has endured for more than sixty years in the face of predictions of impending state failure Even if an extreme sustained climate-induced crisis caused the central government to suffer a general failure some of the state governments would likely retain enough capacity to function autonomously at least on a temporary basis The probable economic and humanitarian consequences of such a failure would nevertheless be catastrophic and require a response at the global level—the Indian state is effectively “too big to fail ” Stabilizing Factors India has a number of institutional “buffers” that may aid in preserving state stability The Indian democratic political system with its broad participation even by the poorest citizens is a major source of legitimacy for the state It is also a mechanism to receive 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views feedback on mitigation policies that should allow India to more effectively hone its responses to climate change over the longer term India’s federal system has been gradually strengthened since independence reinforced by the emergence of a state-based political system within a centuries-old common market The social tolerance of inequality so long as poverty alleviation continues may insulate the Indian government from popular disaffection due to disproportionate climatic impacts on certain groups The ability of the state to turn to elements of civil society for assistance as well as feedback and pressure from civil actors and NGOs are further stabilizing factors India is not a police state and the number of security forces per capita is low The repressive elements of the state—military paramilitary and police—nevertheless number in the millions These forces represent an important tool that India can bring to bear in addressing climate change-induced challenges both in the case of humanitarian response to large-scale disruptive events such as floods or cyclones as well as in response to internal instability caused by population displacement unemployment socio-economic grievances or resource competition Indian security forces have shown the capacity to adapt to the requirements of the mission In Kashmir for example the Indian security response was initially clumsy and ineffective but over time its effectiveness improved The Kashmir experience as well as the challenge from terrorism has led to needed reforms in the centrally-controlled military and paramilitary forces which will be key responders to large-scale climate change-induced disruptions The local Indian police forces in contrast have yet to be reformed and are pervasively abusive and corrupt Failure of Constituent States Even though a failure of the central government is unlikely India may accumulate a collection of failed constituent states within its federal structure While the South and West of India have benefited most from recent economic growth the Hindi-speaking heartland of the East is characterized by low growth and low state capacities In addition to being the least developed and most dependent on subsistence agriculture these states are expected to suffer the most severe localized climate change impacts This poses a serious risk that state governments will be unable to cope with accelerated climate change-induced challenges even if the federal government is able to manage the challenges at a macro-level The failure of constituent states will exacerbate interstate migrations and necessitate both greater federal intervention and greater reallocation of financial and other resources between states The areas that are most at risk for climate change-induced state failure are also those that face the most serious challenge from Maoist-inspired insurgent groups A positive feedback loop between insurgency and state failure may therefore develop leading at best to chronic instability and at worst to sustained regional civil war and humanitarian crises State Climate Change Mitigation Policies Agricultural Policies The success of the Green Revolution demonstrates that India has the capacity for large-scale agricultural adaptation India may well need a second Green Revolution to meet the challenges brought about by climate change Such a process would require very substantial planning and subsidies from the Indian state over a sustained period Indian policymakers take great pride in having achieved self-sufficiency in food and are determined not to once again have to depend on foreign humanitarian aid to feed the population This attitude may constrain willingness to compromise on autarkic food security in the face of climate-induced pressures until the problem reaches a crisis stage India’s existing infrastructure 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views expanded and improved up to 2030 should nevertheless be able to handle the movement of food and drinking water from surplus to scarce regions especially in the states of the northern Deccan and Vindhyas Rajasthan Gujarat Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra in particular where there is likely to be more urbanization Maintaining food security requires not only efficient food distribution but also sufficient food production Average yields of food crops in India are still low by global standards While increased productivity might ideally be able to keep pace with population growth in practice climate change impacts on agriculture will make such productivity very difficult to maintain in the longer term Measures such as expanding the use of drip irrigation intensifying watershed water harvesting efforts and replanting land devoted to cash crops such as cotton and sugar cane with food crops may be able to mitigate some impacts on agricultural productivity India already possesses the state institutions needed to conduct research on new varieties of crops that will be drought and saline water resistant and can readily expand them Autarkic measures will most likely not be sufficient to make up for declining food production and shortages due to extreme weather events such as droughts floods or storms India will need to substantially modernize its agricultural sector and turn to the world market for at least some of its food needs The Indian government’s Planning Commission is already experimenting with different alternative agricultural models including contract farming public-private partnerships and commercial cultivation of high-value crops such as flowers or potatoes In addition to generating export revenue high-value commercial agriculture may be a way to accommodate agricultural capacity currently wasted on inefficient subsistence models Improved agricultural efficiency and mechanization will have the side-effect of displacing many surplus rural laborers Any Indian agricultural reform strategy must therefore be complemented by an expansion of industrial and service sector employment opportunities A phased displacement of vulnerable populations out of lifestyles and regions that will experience the greatest negative impacts from climate change could help mitigate those impacts A long-term program to carry out this movement in an incremental way might allow India the time to put in place infrastructure and create economic opportunities for the displaced rural population rather than being overwhelmed by sudden migrations due to climate-induced crises Energy Policies India has few good alternative energy options Programs to advance cleaner forms of power generation have been initiated but remain far from fulfilling their promise in view of fiscal technological and end-user adaptation constraints even assuming that they can provide power inexpensively Given the large projected growth in production and consumption demands a transition to cleaner but more expensive means of energy production would entail very large financial costs to India As a result for the foreseeable future growth will be tied to fossil fuels particularly coal Adoption of cleaner alternative methods of energy production will most likely be contingent on foreign technology transfers India will likely expand its use of nuclear power to address some portion of its future energy needs although there is disagreement about the likely extent of the adoption of nuclear power In the past nuclear development has been slow but India now has more access to international sources of nuclear fuel and technical assistance India may be encouraged to step up plans for increased nuclear power generation if domestic climate change mitigation policies and international standards constrain emissions from fossil fuel-based energy production Notwithstanding a projected seven-fold rise in capacity nuclear power will represent eight percent of the total power supply by 2030 It is not expected to rise above 15 to 20 percent by 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 2050 well after the horizon for carbon emissions that will matter for climate change up to 2080 or even beyond Hydroelectric power generation may prove less appealing to India for several reasons It will face constraints due to projected shifts in rainfall patterns and river flows particularly as the melting of Himalayan glaciers results in sustained diminutions in river flows In addition the fact that most of the Himalayan watersheds are outside sovereign Indian territory creates a risk that upstream activities by the controlling states notably China could severely compromise Indian hydroelectric power generation as well as water security more generally The Indian government needs to address the energy challenge at least as much from the demand side as the supply side This may prove very challenging as it is unclear if New Delhi has the ability to monitor let alone control energy use throughout the country To a certain extent India’s delayed industrialization has been advantageous in terms of controlling both energy demand and increased fossil fuel emissions India has been able to bypass some energyintensive stages of industrialization leapfrogging directly to more efficient solutions In telecommunications for example India has moved directly to cellular phone use avoiding having to create an energy-intensive landline phone system Energy demand could be reduced through such measures as solar water heating solar cooking and greater use of bio-fuels Green building designs and construction methods could also be implemented These need not require the application of advanced techniques for example mud more efficiently dissipates heat than concrete allowing Indians in mud dwellings to live comfortably in up to 120 degree Fahrenheit heat even without air conditioning A move back to mud construction could therefore reduce the need for air conditioning in turn reducing demand for electricity On the other hand if climate change is expected to bring heavy downpours mud construction makes less sense These sorts of design tradeoffs need to be considered in light of anticipated climate change impacts The expansion of the Indian transportation sector over the next twenty years is projected to account for a large share of growth in energy demand and will potentially be a major source of increased carbon emissions The Indian state has the opportunity to incentivize more energy efficiency transportation developments It could subsidize rail transportation and facilitate the expansion of the already extensive Indian railway system Rail transportation is substantially more energy-efficient than road transportation Urbanization and increased demand for personal vehicles however dictate that substantial expansion of the Indian road and highway system will take place As previously discussed India’s auto industry has demonstrated the capacity to produce high-efficiency vehicles and the government could subsidize the production and purchase of such vehicles Regional Implications The regional impact of likely climate changes will affect India in numerous ways from firstorder environmental effects such as diminished river flows sea level rise and windborne aerosols to second-order socio-political disruptions such as cross-border migration humanitarian crises and possible state failure The most significant sustained challenges may stem from reduced water availability and increased migration Geopolitics in South Asia Although it is unified geographically South Asia is a deeply divided region politically India is by far the leading power in the region but has preferred to take an almost exclusively bilateral 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views approach in dealing with its South Asian neighbors There is a virtual absence of South Asian regional institutions and a low level of intra-regional trade investment and other forms of economic interaction The one regional organization that exists is the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAARC both India and its neighbors have deliberately kept it weak India is reluctant to accord much importance to this regional association due to fears that neighboring states might use it to restrain Indian power India’s neighbors worry that an effective multilateral institution would become an instrument of Indian hegemony These considerations have kept contentious issues such as water sharing off SAARC’s agenda India is more interested in participating in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN as the countries of Southeast Asia are far more significant trading investment and security partners The lack of multilateral cooperation and institutions at the regional level is a significant complication to formulating a common response to shared climatic challenges India’s domestic politics and that of its neighbors act as a further inhibitor to efforts at regional cooperation The longstanding and intractable tensions and disputes in the South Asian region tend to mobilize aggrieved domestic constituencies and hamper the national governments’ ability to make concessions and improve cooperation A case in point is the dispute between India and Bangladesh over the Farakka Barrage located on the Ganges approximately 15 miles upstream from the border with Bangladesh The barrage facilitates irrigation in three of India’s most populous states—Uttar Pradesh Bihar and West Bengal—which provide about one-third of the representatives in the Indian Parliament No Indian coalition government can afford to agree to any deal that results in a significant reduction of the water available for irrigation Instances like the Farakka Barrage dispute have encouraged the Indian government to repeatedly—and successfully—turn to ‘stealth diplomacy ’ Private consultations are used to keep issues under negotiation from public scrutiny and possible deal-breaking demands India knows how to conduct quiet diplomacy and has done so with Pakistan on several occasions over the past decade The history of regional tension also means that active involvement by external powers may be a necessary ingredient in facilitating regional cooperation in addressing climatic challenges Although India has followed a longstanding policy of excluding external powers from the region that policy began to erode slightly with the end of the Cold War India has realized that the outside world and in particular the United States might be helpful in India’s relations with neighboring states India is willing to consent to great power involvement if it is on Indian terms and serves to advance India’s interests Regional Water Issues The major rivers of the subcontinent arise in the Himalayas and their courses cross national boundaries The great South Asian river basins support rich ecosystems and irrigate millions of acres of land supporting some of densest populations in the world The two major South Asian trans-boundary river systems that include India are the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system which spans Bangladesh Bhutan China India and Nepal and the Indus system which spans Afghanistan China India Nepal and Pakistan Regional cooperation on these transnational river systems has been conducted on a bilateral basis with mixed results The lack of multilateral regional cooperation has created the paradoxical situation whereby South Asia faces water shortages despite there being ample water in the region An integrated regional water management program could provide substantial benefits—such as increased hydroelectric and 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views irrigation efficiency—but the political barriers to doing so have so far been challenging Increased pressure on the South Asian water systems due to climate change might provide an incentive for increased cooperation but given the level of mutual suspicion among the parties could also lead to conflict Water Issues with Pakistan The Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan is the best example of regional cooperation over water Outside involvement from the United Kingdom and United States was essential in this case as India and Pakistan could not resolve their differences over sharing the water The Indus Treaty stipulated the distribution of waters between India and Pakistan the construction of canals and storage facilities paid for by the US and the UK and a Permanent Commission to adjudicate disputes exchange data and provide for on-site inspections The Commission has been able to accommodate the expansion of the irrigation system in both countries and has continued to function over the past five decades even during the two Indo-Pakistani wars and periodic tensions Lessons learned from this example of water cooperation between adversaries include the need for external involvement and funding concrete benefits to both sides strong national leadership and some degree of ‘stealth diplomacy ’ In spite of the Indus Waters Treaty Indo-Pakistani tensions—such as the two-decade old dispute over the Wular Barrage being built by India on the Jhelum River—mean that shared river systems will not be utilized to their full potential which might become a serious regional problem as river flows diminish The water dispute could become an increasingly relevant factor in Indian and Pakistani strategic calculations although resort to military force specifically on the water issue is unlikely Water Issues with Bangladesh India has had a long-standing dispute with Bangladesh over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin which includes the Farakka Barrage issue A series of treaties have been signed since 1975—the latest in 1996—but no solution has been implemented Bangladesh continues to protest the diminished flow of water and the adverse impact caused by the silting of vital waterways factors likely to be significantly worsened as the overall river flow diminishes India is constrained by a lack of funds and by domestic political factors that stall any solution to reduce the water available for irrigation in northeastern India Water Issues with China Unlike India’s other neighbors China is not part of the South Asian geographic and climatic region and faces discrete climate change impacts China nevertheless plays a significant role in hydrologic issues in South Asia primarily through its control of the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan watersheds which are the source of several rivers that flow through the eastern quarter of the subcontinent As glacial melting reduces river flows from the Himalayas water competition between India and China may intensify Tension may worsen as China moves ahead on plans to tap into Himalayan hydroelectric potential The major issue concerns China’s plans for a massive hydroelectric project in Tibet which is expected to be twice as large as the Three Gorges Dam currently the world’s largest hydroelectric project The Tsangpo hydroelectric project would divert water from rivers draining from Tibet into South Asia This is likely to become a major point of contention with India and may inflame even further the unresolved border claims between the two countries Cross-Border Migration The other major cross-border regional climate change issue facing India is an upsurge in crossborder migration from neighboring countries subjected to severe climate change impacts There 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views is already a large-scale movement of people from Nepal and Bangladesh into India for economic reasons and climate change will most likely result in a significant increase in migration Increasing cross-border migration has already triggered “sons of the soil” movements that demand the expulsion of these immigrants most of whom are illegal Efforts to restrict migration have failed and the Indian government recognizes that the only realistic long-term solution is economic development and increased prosperity in Nepal and Bangladesh This issue like that of water will require a regional approach Immigration from Bangladesh Illegal immigration from Bangladesh into India can be compared to that from Mexico into the United States and has already caused pressure on India’s stretched resources in the Northeast and Bengal Bangladeshis account for the majority of migrants presently in India Although estimates on the numbers involved vary they could amount to between 15 and 20 million people India is now building a fence around Bangladesh to stop migration and placate anti-immigrant groups but border control has so far proved ineffective A 2008 Delhi High Court ruling has paved the way for deporting persons of Bengali origin unable to produce a birth certificate or other evidence of Indian citizenship In India’s northeastern Assam region groups that face the threat of being demographically overwhelmed by immigrants have argued that the federal government in New Delhi is unable or unwilling to prevent illegal immigration They have gone so far as to use the immigration issue as grounds for secession from India The majority of Bangladeshi immigrants have been illegal economic migrants from districts adjacent to Indian West Bengal Anticipated inundation and salt water intrusion in the Ganges delta may displace tens of millions more Bangladeshis many of whom may cross the border into India India would not have the resources to cope with Bangladeshi immigrants pushing into West Bengal Orissa and the Northeast On the other hand Bangladesh has shown increasing capacity to cope with inundation Up to 70 percent of Bangladesh is under water each monsoon season but farmers have adapted by cultivating water crops such as rice and farming shrimp for export Despite these adaptations Bangladesh will most likely become less able to manage the issue as the loss of arable land continues and the scale of the climatic problems increases About half of Bangladesh’s population unable to sustain themselves through agriculture will migrate to cities by 2050 and much of this migration will probably be to India In addition major disruptive events such as cyclones may generate mass refugee movements into India on much shorter timescales than the overall shifts in climate Immigration from Nepal and Other South Asian Countries Immigration from Nepal has so far been a much less contentious issue than the influx from Bangladesh The number of Nepalese immigrants involved is much smaller—at most two to three million Unlike Bangladeshis most Nepalese immigrants enter India legally The border with Nepal is open and there have been no efforts to erect barriers India’s concerns about Nepalese immigration are nevertheless likely to increase as climate change-induced pressures increase the flow of immigrants Sri Lanka’s coastal areas had a preview of the disastrous effects of rising waters during the 2004 tsunami Pressure from rising sea levels could cause Tamils from northern and eastern Sri Lanka about 18 percent of the total population of 20 million to migrate to Tamilnadu across the Palk straits as well as to seek assistance from India The entire country of the Maldive Islands could disappear due to sea level rise The population of 300 000 is already experiencing flooding of some islands India will be expected to assist and could become the host for the 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views majority of the displaced islanders Although immigration from Pakistan is not very significant a climate-induced state failure in Pakistan might result in refugee flows across the Indian border Prospects for Regional Conflict Climate change impacts mean that India as the leading regional power will most likely face increased requirements for humanitarian intervention in neighboring countries either unilaterally or multilaterally The prospect of climate-induced state failure in Sri Lanka Nepal or Bangladesh might necessitate strong Indian intervention Short of state failure major disruptive events such as cyclones—which are expected to strike with greater intensity and frequency— could similarly necessitate Indian humanitarian intervention particularly in Bangladesh Sri Lanka or the Maldives Setting aside humanitarian intervention it is unlikely that interstate conflicts will be explicitly framed in terms of environmental issues such as water rights or migration Climatic concerns may instead increase underlying tensions in the region exacerbating conflicts over other issues Pakistan Pakistan presents a special and particularly troubling case for India Indo-Pakistani conflict remains a persistent risk even absent climate-induced pressures Pakistan might in extreme circumstances be pushed to contemplate military action to secure the sources of the Indus river system which lie in the disputed territory of Kashmir Given Indian military superiority such a move is very unlikely and Pakistan’s prospects of holding the territory in the long term would be remote The presence of the Indus Waters Treaty which has so far successfully guaranteed Pakistan’s access to the rivers even during armed conflict with India also remains a mitigating factor A more likely climate change-induced conflict scenario involves the full or partial failure of the Pakistani state Pakistan faces a serious risk of state failure even without climatic pressures Even without details of climate change impacts on Pakistan to 2030 it is clear that climatic stress would intensify Pakistan’s pervasive instability A failure of central military authority could result in Pakistan breaking up into its constituent ethnic and regional sub-units Climate changeinduced challenges could also cause the breakdown of civil order in particularly vulnerable regions of the country such as Punjab The inability of the Pakistani government to cope with climate change-induced challenges could also increase support for radical solutions such as Taliban-style fundamentalist movements and prompt a generalized insurgency Loss of military control would place the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at risk Any of these scenarios would pose a severe national security threat to India India would likely feel obliged to intervene given a wholesale state failure in its nuclear neighbor China India’s strategic concerns about China may inhibit both the prospects for cooperation on regional or global climate change mitigation as well as India’s willingness to sacrifice economic growth or redirect resources from national security needs The most salient climate-related point of conflict could be China’s move to divert the upstream waters of rivers originating in the Himalayan watershed Tibetan hydroelectric projects could put at risk the tributaries of the Brahmaputra If China was determined to move forward with such a scheme it could become a major element in pushing China and India towards an adversarial rather than simply a competitive relationship Border clashes related to control of the rivers are not out of the question In 1962 India was defeated by China in a border war in the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh—the same area that would be affected by river disputes 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Prospects for Regional Cooperation on Climate Change Mitigation Given the likely regional impacts from demographic and climate changes states in South Asia need to adopt a more cooperative approach to address regional problems No regional climate mitigation effort will be adopted without India’s active support and most likely its leadership Despite the numerous problems noted above that hinder regional cooperation several factors may prompt India to take a more active regional stance Regional cooperation enhances India’s goal of playing a more significant role on the world stage Conversely tensions with its neighbors especially with Pakistan are distracting and make India a less attractive strategic partner In addition India’s neighbors provide sources of energy that could improve the chances of India maintaining a high rate of economic growth—hydroelectric power in the case of Nepal gas in the case of Bangladesh and transshipment routes for Iranian and Central Asian gas in the case of Pakistan The biggest challenge however will be political leadership Missing today from the model of the successful Indus Waters Treaty described above are strong national leaders in any of the South Asian states who can stand up to domestic obstructionism Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a renowned economist is probably the only regional leader with the vision to push regional climate mitigation efforts although he heads a relatively weak coalition government Regional cooperation on climate mitigation proposals will likely require stealthy non-publicized outside involvement and funding probably led by the United States Overall Foreign Policy Implications Since the adoption of market reforms in the early 1990s India has radically reoriented its foreign policy It has moved from an inward-looking security stance to a more outward- looking policy aimed at enhancing trade investment and access to technology It has cultivated relations with countries that can help it achieve economic growth such as the United States Japan and countries of the European Union Nevertheless India retains some residual autarkic tendencies and its growth model is far less export-dependent than that of China If climate change caused an extreme diminution in resources it might be the catalyst for a shift toward autarkic policies in India India’s Foreign Policy Stance on Climate Issues India’s industrial growth and size mean that it is becoming one of the primary contributors to climate change even though its per capita emissions are and will remain low by developed country standards India therefore needs to reevaluate its strategy and values on climate issues— focusing more on curbing future impacts and less on historical injustices—if it is to assume a responsible global position This will require reframing the climate debate in terms of India’s self-interest in mitigating destabilizing impacts and promoting green economic growth rather than in terms of the global need to limit or moderate industrial development As a latecomer to industrial development India is not receptive to the latter argument Indian policymakers also remain hostile to what they perceive as high-handed foreign dictates on climate change policies that do not take India’s development needs into account Even as climate change impacts begin to be felt suspicions remain that the climate issue is being used to protect the economic interests of developed countries India’s policymakers are likely to support issues related to climate change only if convinced that they also advance the goal of economic growth 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views While India favors a multilateral approach to managing global climate change mitigation it prefers that the standards and regulations be voluntary and take development targets into account India has been consistent in refusing to accept international greenhouse gas mitigation targets for example citing equity and economic grounds India has remained firm on the principle that all countries have a right to equitable emissions in the atmosphere measured by per capita entitlement an argument so far supported by China and other developing countries India’s view has been that the developed countries have exhausted the global commons and should bear the primary responsibility for responding to climate change The developed countries should therefore reduce their emissions to start closing the gap in per capita emissions between developed and developing countries If the developed countries want India to adopt more climate-friendly policies and technologies they will have to subsidize it through the large-scale transfer of technology and money The developed countries have the efficient technologies India needs to effectively deal with the challenges of climate change mitigation and India believes they have a responsibility to provide such aid Large-scale transfers of wealth may be a tough sell in the current global economic climate The acceptance of a per capita distribution of carbon permits in itself would represent a trillion-dollar transfer of wealth from the developed countries Indo-American Relations Since the end of the Cold War India has largely abandoned its ideological commitment to nonalignment and shown an increased willingness to engage with the United States and even allow US involvement in South Asian regional affairs The US pressure on Pakistan to withdraw its troops from the Kargil enclave in Kashmir in the summer of 1999 demonstrated that US involvement on the sensitive Kashmir issue could be advantageous A more recent example of US help was the assistance provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and US pressure on Pakistan to cooperate in the investigation of the November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai by operatives of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba LeT The successful US effort to exempt India from the international restrictions on export of nuclear fuel and technology significantly enhanced US standing in India Polls over the past several years consistently show that the US is popular in India and that Indians perceive US foreign policy goals as not inconsistent with those of India Climate Policy Differences India and the United States have been on opposing sides of the climate change debate Although both sides cite equity considerations in support of their stances India defines equity on a per capita basis while the US defines it in terms of contributions to emissions India seeks further commitments on reducing emissions from the developed countries citing the principle of “common but differentiated responses ” India believes that the United States should take the initiative in making disproportionate adjustments to its own energy consumption and emissions before expecting India to take similar action The United States insists on parity in treatment of all major emitters an important reason it did not sign the 2005 Kyoto Protocol imposing mitigation targets only on developed countries Although US-Indian dialogue on climate change continues it frequently suffers from divergent interpretations by the two sides Despite the fact that both the US and India endorsed the 2007 Bali Action Plan to advance the climate regime at the Copenhagen Conference of Parties in 2009 each reads the text differently India supported by China and the G-77 views the “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” by developing countries as contingent on transfers of technology and infusions of 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views financing and capacity-building from the developed countries This is a much more open-ended interpretation than that of the United States India considers itself to be in a relatively strong position to persuade the United States and other developed countries to pay for the changes needed to reduce emissions because arriving at an international climate change agreement means far more to them than to India It has therefore adopted a maximalist negotiating position that the United States may find very difficult to accommodate India may not fully take into account the difficulty in securing sufficient political support on the US side for substantial financial support to Indian climate change mitigation Although outsourcing has given India some leverage with the United States by moving substantial supporting elements of US industries to India this leverage is not at the level enjoyed by China Strains in Indo-American Relations India perceives the United States has downgraded its relationship with India in favor of stronger ties to Pakistan and China The Hyde Act was a major step backward in relations nullifying closer cooperation with India on nuclear security and energy The current lack of enthusiasm in Washington for following through on the terms of the nuclear deal negotiated under the Bush administration has sent a strong signal that nonproliferation concerns have been prioritized over closer ties with New Delhi As a consequence India is turning to France and Russia as nuclear energy partners The renewed US emphasis on the war in Afghanistan has led to increasing American ties with and reliance on Pakistan Pakistan has extracted a high price in military and development aid from the United States for its cooperation against terrorism and the Taliban Having been accorded the status of a major non-NATO ally Pakistan has increased access to advanced US weaponry Although US aid is intended to facilitate Pakistani engagement on the terrorism front it has the side-effect of strengthening Pakistan’s capabilities vis-à-vis India Regardless of Washington’s motivation India feels threatened by deepening ties and aid to its main regional rival India tends to perceive the US relationship with China in similarly zero-sum terms India and China to a large extent occupy the same geo-political space as major rising Asian powers and leaders among the world’s developing countries India regards itself as a peer competitor of China and is very sensitive to the greater relative international weight accorded to Beijing—for example China has a permanent United Nations Security Council seat while India does not India views any US move that disproportionately favor China with hostility This applies to climate change as to other international issues For example if the United States were to negotiate a bilateral side-deal with China in advance of the Copenhagen negotiations India’s non-cooperation would be virtually assured and US-Indian relations jeopardized Given India’s upcoming elections such a move would sour the views of the incoming Indian administration regarding the United States regardless of whether there is a change in government To the extent that Indian policymakers perceive the United States is turning away from India and giving aid and comfort to its adversaries their displeasure may well manifest itself in greater recalcitrance on climate change issues From India’s perspective the United States has a history of vacillating between granting favor to India or its rivals New Delhi does not forget past American fickleness and grudges are likely to be carried over into future policy debates 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Opportunities for Engagement Ample opportunities exist for the United States to incentivize greater Indian cooperation on climate issues In recent years India has set aside previous ideological divisions with the United States in order to take a more pragmatic approach aimed at furthering its own perceived national priorities In the longer term a strategic partnership with the United States offers India a stronger position vis-à-vis China There is a possibility for a quid pro quo if the United States is prepared to offer a long-term security relationship in exchange for Indian concessions such as emissions caps Indian uncertainty about Washington’s commitment to building a partnership may require a demonstration of US bona fides US actions that accord New Delhi equal prestige and precedence to Beijing may dispose India to greater confidence in US commitments and openness to compromises on climate change issues A trilateral dialogue between the United States India and China in advance of Copenhagen for example might be viewed positively by New Delhi whereas a bilateral US-China dialogue would be viewed negatively So long as direct military aid remains limited to counter-terrorism US ties to Pakistan are not necessarily a disadvantage to India The close relationship with Islamabad allows the United States to exert more leverage to curtail Pakistani provocations in Kashmir or tacit support to terrorist groups such as LeT as well as to act as an honest broker in ‘stealth diplomacy’ between the rival countries While India is now taking the implications of climate change seriously US pressure remains an important factor in sustaining commitment to climate change mitigation policies India currently perceives its relative stake in climate change mitigation as less than that of the US and other developed countries Although this is likely to change over time as climate change impacts on India intensify in the near term securing Indian acquiescence in international mitigation policies may require US persistence and persuasion This will require a combination of flexibility in accommodating India’s developmental priorities and incentives in other areas such as security technology transfers subsidies and greater diplomatic engagement In addition unilateral US initiatives on reducing its own climatic impact would demonstrate US sincerity and resolve on the climate mitigation issue The Copenhagen Negotiations Despite the urgency of the Copenhagen negotiations a comprehensive agreement on climate change mitigation may not yet be possible Failure to achieve an effective treaty at Copenhagen would be a major setback in the response to global climate change but there would still be the opportunity for a side deal with India and or China The United States should be prepared to continue the dialogue at other venues and on a bilateral or more constrained multilateral basis However the United States should not alienate either of these key powers in the name of shortterm diplomatic maneuvering India remains one of the few countries where the United States maintains a broadly positive image an advantage which should not be squandered through heavy-handed diplomacy The United States should approach India before the negotiations through ‘stealth diplomacy’ and seek to pre-negotiate a mutually acceptable compromise outside the public and international eye India is broadly receptive to the idea of climate change mitigation but not at the expense of economic growth It would be useful to reframe the argument in terms that recognize India’s growth priorities and show how cooperation will serve India’s economic interests India would likely be receptive to a sliding scale of climate change mitigation benchmarks for India and other 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views developing countries that still need to focus on growth Such a scale would allow more relaxed standards until they reached levels of wealth and industrialization seen in developed countries Copenhagen provides an opportunity for the United States to assuage Indian concerns about its commitment to a strategic partnership The negotiations can be presented to India as one of the first tests of US and Indian resolve to ameliorate policy differences and take a joint lead on a critical global issue Even limited symbolic US concessions may pave the way for strategic agreements down the road 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2009-09 June 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explored the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For China the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report China Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-02 April 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determined whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for China • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security In April 2009 CENTRA Technology Inc convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on China through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists economists and political scientists Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030 the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist serving as the Executive Agent for the Director of National Intelligence supported and funded the contract 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled Implications of Global Climate Change in China on 3 April 2009 brought together a panel of experts1 to consider the probable effects of climate change on China from a social political and economic perspective The panelists judged that China has a robust capacity to handle the large-scale disruptions that probably will be caused by climate change and that China’s trajectory of continued growth is likely to further increase its resilience through 2030 Beyond 2030 the ability for the state to respond is more problematic • At present China ranks lower in resilience to climate change than Brazil Turkey and Mexico but higher than India • China can adapt its administrative planning and resource allocation capabilities used for its fast-paced and successful development program to deal with climate change • China’s development plan incorporates sustainability and posits a shift from energy-intensive heavy industry toward services and domestic consumption • In spite of state-imposed limitations China’s nongovernmental organizations and civil actors are increasingly capable and willing responders to climate change Climate change in China will nevertheless exacerbate a number of existing large-scale sociopolitical economic and environmental challenges • The combination of water scarcity desertification dust bowls and shifting agricultural patterns appears likely to generate mass migration from China’s northern and western margins into the heartlands of the east and south • China’s cities and the non-agricultural sectors of China’s economy will have to absorb millions of unskilled workers displaced from rural areas resulting in higher unemployment increased social tensions and strain on infrastructure • Climatic pressure on agriculture and a move from staple crops probably will make China an important food importer In addition to domestic challenges the trans-border impact of China’s environmental problems could lead to increased political tensions regional economic disruptions and deterioration in the quality of life for hundreds of millions in the region • China may seek to assure its access to critical water and energy resources on its periphery either through economic means or the threat of force • Climate change may increase Chinese emigration into Russia Mongolia and other neighboring countries China may face refugee inflows from Southeast Asia North Korea or other areas hard hit by climate change • China may divert water from the Himalayas to address its water and energy needs putting downstream countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia at risk 1 The panel had expertise in political science comparative world history energy and climate practice the Chinese economy and sociology 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China’s responses to climate change are likely to focus on large-scale solutions that significantly alter the environment • China undoubtedly will invest heavily in infrastructure projects to divert water to drier areas control flooding and address expanding urban needs • China is likely to accelerate market-based incentives for urbanization migration and business location decisions better adapted to climate change • Owing to the scale and inter-jurisdictional nature of climate change-induced challenges the central government will be the primary responder resulting in further centralization and the heightening of hierarchical controls China’s response to climate change will nevertheless be inhibited by a number of structural political and economic factors • Panelists judged China’s leaders consider sustained high rates of economic growth as essential for regime security and they will not compromise these fundamental interests for the sake of climate change mitigation • China will face drastic near-term rises in energy demand as its economy industrial base and standard of living increase • China will be forced to address energy demand primarily through domestically produced coal and imported oil leading to a severe rise in China’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions Climate change will create incentives for greater cooperation between China and other major powers as China increasingly assumes a leadership role in the international system • China’s R D and industrial development policies are increasingly focused on energy and environmental issues • Climate change is likely to increase China’s overall dependence on international sources of energy food and technology As a result China probably will increase its presence and activity in international markets and resource-rich countries Despite a willingness to work with the United States when interests are aligned China’s attitude toward the United States is one of deep distrust Securing China’s commitment to a climate change agreement will require a multi-layered and nuanced diplomatic approach • China will face resource constraints and domestic destabilization that will limit its ability to make compromises with foreign partners or take aggressive mitigation actions • Engagement with Chinese academics the bureaucracy and civil actors will help disseminate foreign ideas in acceptable forms • China views India as a key strategic competitor and will feel threatened by any US attempt to strike a private climate agreement with India On the other hand China and India agree on issues of equity and responsibility for climate change and may cooperate against the developed countries’ positions 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background Social Political and Economic Challenges 7 9 Hydrologic Challenges Agricultural Challenges Pollution and Public Health Challenges Demographic Challenges Economic and Industrial Challenges Political Challenges 9 11 12 13 14 16 Civil and Key Interest Group Responses 17 State Corporatism Social Resilience Overall Social Responses Socio-Economic Interest Groups Ethnic Minorities Religious Groups Nongovernmental Organizations 17 18 18 19 22 22 23 26 State Response Party-State Leadership State Capacity Prospects for State Failure State Climate Change Mitigation Policies Energy Policy Water Policy Agricultural Policy 5 This paper does not represent US Government views 26 28 32 33 36 39 40 This paper does not represent US Government views Regional Implications Regional Water Issues Aerosols Regional Migration Overall Foreign Policy Implications China’s Foreign Policy Perspectives on Climate Change China’s International Climate Change Challenges US Diplomatic Approaches The Copenhagen Negotiations 6 This paper does not represent US Government views 41 41 41 42 43 44 45 46 49 This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background2 China is well known for its scale it has the world’s largest population the third largest land area and the fourth nominal or second purchasing power parity largest economy and is the second largest primary energy producer and consumer and the largest carbon dioxide emitter As a major global player in human-caused climate change China is vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change • Over the past century 1908 to 2007 the average temperature in China has risen by 1 1 degrees Celsius oC • Although no significant trend was observed in nationally averaged precipitation totals over the past 50 years a drying trend was observed in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain • Over the past 30 years the sea level and sea surface temperature have increased 90 millimeters mm and 0 9oC respectively • China has experienced more extreme events floods droughts and storms in recent years than ever before These extreme weather events have caused direct economic losses per year of $25 to 37 5 billion in China One regional climate model projects a country-averaged annual mean temperature increase of 1 3-2 1°C by 2020 2 3-3 3°C by 2050 another regional climate model projects a 1-1 6°C temperature increment and a 3 3-3 7 percent precipitation increase between 2011 and 2020 depending on the emissions scenario By 2030 sea level rise along coastal areas could be 0 01-0 16 meters m increasing the possibility of flooding and intensified storm surges leading to degradation of wetlands mangroves and coral reefs Agricultural growing seasons will lengthen and the risk of extreme heat episodes will increase over time Storms may intensify but warming temperatures are likely to enhance drying in already dry areas so both droughts and floods may increase China ranks lower in resilience to climate change3 than Brazil Turkey and Mexico but higher than India China ranks high in food security human health and human resources Projections of resilience show China gaining capacity quickly and outranking Brazil Turkey and Mexico by 2020 In recent years the Chinese Government has paid increasing attention to the negative consequences of climate change In 2007 China laid out its roadmap to battle climate change in China’s National Climate Change Program NCCP which was followed by a white paper in 2008 entitled China’s Actions and Policies on Climate Change Both documents reviewed China’s past achievements and presented its plans in the following areas 2 This section is a extracted from Executive Summary of the Phase I report see Scope Note http www dni gov nic PDF_GIF_otherprod climate_change climate2030_china pdf Some of the judgments in this report Phase II may differ from the Phase I report 3 See the Phase I report p 23 for a description and discussion of resilience 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Strengthening government management in vulnerable sectors such as water resources agriculture forestry and coastal regions • Building early-warning and monitoring networks • Raising public awareness • Enhancing R D investment • Keeping an open and active attitude to utilize international resources China is demonstrating its determination to tackle climate change issues as an important domestic affair However some prominent climate impact issues—such as the underrated and underpublicized water crisis as well as the underdeveloped social protection system—have seemingly not caught the government’s attention In addition China must show an ability to actually implement its ambitious plans The negative consequences of climate change may expose the following sectors to high risk Water Scarcity of natural water resources fast-growing urbanization and industrialization severe water pollution cheap water prices and the adverse impacts of climate change on water sources might lead to a water crisis in China The drought regions in northern China may be prone to social unrest caused by conflicts about water rights and distribution between social groups and between sectors The expected South-to-North Water Diversion Project may alleviate the water stress of some northern regions but it will not provide a full solution and has in any case been delayed The forthcoming water crisis may adversely affect China’s social economic and political stability Coastal Regions Due to their flat and low landscape China’s coastal regions the heartland of China’s economic progress are highly vulnerable to storm flood and sea level rise The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as typhoons has threatened economic development at local regional and national levels China has been actively developing early warning systems and related monitoring systems and improving the design standards of sea dikes and port docks These efforts may help buffer some risk of natural weather extreme events Social and Political Uncertainties With a large unemployed population China’s underdeveloped social safety net system is less and less able to protect those who need it Rising expenses in healthcare education and housing have been financial burdens for the average Chinese family The export-oriented economy is vulnerable to a global financial crisis The increasing dependence on foreign oil exposes China to an unstable world oil market The adverse impacts of climate change will add extra pressure to existing social and resource such as energy stresses 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges Climate change through 2030 is likely to subject China to severe ecological problems It is not clear whether the resulting demands made on China will exceed the country’s capacity to manage its economic social and political systems If climate change-induced challenges occur gradually and can be forecasted and planned for accurately China has the capacity to deal with them successfully There are some grounds for optimism in the near term the average trends underlying emerging climate change conditions in China imply only gradual adjustments In addition China’s geographical location squarely astride the world’s northern temperate zone appears to insulate the country from the more severe changes reportedly associated with coming global warming trends in tropical and arctic regions of the planet On the other hand China already faces rising social tension over inequities and conflict over scarce resources which will be magnified by unemployment from the current global economic slowdown and further exacerbated by near-term climate change trends In addition economic and social impacts are likely to come in bursts driven by major events such as a prolonged drought a prolonged and especially heavy monsoon a series of severe typhoons or dust storms or an unusual sea surge causing a rush of increased coastal ground water salinity There is a distinct risk of low probability high consequence events in which a number of climate-related developments interact to produce negative synergies Under such circumstances events could spin out of control resulting in serious social and political crises When considering possible social political and economic challenges it is worth noting that there are plenty of knowledge gaps in predicting the future effects of climate change Currently it is impossible to definitively model climate change much less its impacts in a useful time frame In addition the factors that affect water supply and productivity the effects of dust clouds and pests and agricultural diseases are poorly accounted for in current models China’s internal climate is very complex and varies across regions and at the local level Social political and economic impacts and by extension state capacity questions and societal responses will exhibit substantial regional differences Hydrologic Challenges China already faces an escalating water crisis brought on by increased water demands generated by expanding industry urban populations and agriculture The impact of climate change on China’s water resources will make this crisis considerably more severe forcing large-scale mitigation measures to stave off the loss of arable land disruption of agricultural patterns and internal migration as many locations are rendered less habitable Over the longer term phenomena such as glacial melting in the Himalayas greater variability in the monsoons and more frequent and intense storms will contribute to increasing irregularity of river flows both from the watershed of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau and in the lowlands In addition rainfall will be more irregular with episodes of drought punctuated by intense rainstorms The total amount of rain received by particular regions will change either increasing or decreasing as climate zones and weather patterns shift This will place severe stress on farmers and agricultural systems dependent on traditional patterns of river flow and rainfall Particularly in the case of regions still dependent on subsistence agriculture this will generate environmental refugee flows and necessitate humanitarian intervention and reallocation of resources by the Chinese Government 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In addition China will experience sustained shifts in water availability across large swaths of the country Northern China will become drier Southern China and south-central China which already have substantial monsoon rains will see even more precipitation as a result of climate change Water Scarcity Droughts and Floods Sustained water scarcity is likely to occur across much of northern China as well as more frequent and severe periodic droughts These climate change impacts threaten a further deterioration of conditions already seriously affected by long-term water mismanagement bringing costly damage or disruption to farms non-farm businesses and households Climatic shifts will likely lead to southward and eastward encroachment by the Gobi Desert and severe water scarcity in the breadbasket of the North China Plain Severe water shortages could generate broad stress across China’s economy population and infrastructure Scarcity will force increasingly difficult tradeoffs in water allocation between agriculture industry and population centers Simultaneous population movements into China’s cities will most likely restrict China’s ability to divert water away from urban needs China will therefore face the need to transition to less water-intensive farming and industrial techniques In the south and along China’s coasts the challenge will be overabundance rather than scarcity of water The greatest impact will most likely come from more frequent and serious flooding particularly in China’s heavily populated river basins Human tragedies and business losses resulting from flooding occur somewhere in China virtually every year and these losses can be expected to increase substantially The North China Plain The most disruptive impact of water scarcity in northern China may be felt in the North China Plain the agricultural heartland of northern China It is home to approximately 220 million people and encompasses the five provincial-level jurisdictions of Shanxi Henan Hebei Beijing and Tianjin Although irrigated by the Yellow Huang River water scarcity has forced the mining of groundwater which is a nonrenewable and an unsustainable practice There are already more than two million deep wells in the area which combined with climate change will seriously deplete the water available to the region The severity of population pressure on arid lands and declining water tables on the North China Plain was long kept a “state secret” starting in the mid-1980s to avoid alarming the populace A sustained water crisis on the North China Plain would cause severe stress to both agriculture and the large rural and urban population which may also be swelled up to 50 million environmental migrants and refugees fleeing desertification on the southern and eastern margins of the Gobi Desert Coastal Areas Although China’s coasts have plentiful access to water compared to the hinterland climate change will put them at risk from sea level rise and storm surges according to the Phase I report New storm paths will open up northeastern costal areas to tropical storm damage putting places like Shanghai and Tianjin at risk Rising sea levels will increase saltwater intrusion in coastal farmlands contaminating the soil and groundwater with salt In addition there may be loss of wetlands and low-lying arable land Given China’s coastal topography the predicted rise in sea levels of 0 4-to-6 3 inches by 2030 will only impact certain coastal reaches of northern Jiangsu some islands in the Yangtze River and scattered strips of land in delta areas along China’s coast 4 Storm surges from more frequent coastal storms may pose a more significant threat of flooding in coastal delta areas China’s development patterns 4 See interactive maps in this regard at http flood firetree net 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views have placed large populations and major capital assets in these areas so the human and economic impact of such flooding could be considerable even if the affected areas are geographically limited Agricultural Challenges China’s agricultural sector will face acute stress from climate change particularly as a result of impacts on water availability and distribution This stress will be unequally distributed with certain regions denuded by drought and desertification while others actually experience gains in productivity as a result of longer growing seasons or increased rainfall The overall direct effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in China is uncertain Although some estimates suggest that overall productivity may decrease by 5 to 10 percent by 2030 this depends on the highly unlikely assumption of no mitigating responses by farmers or the state Some decline in productivity is likely but the uncertainty of both the degree of climatic stress on agriculture and the effectiveness of responses makes it very difficult to predict its extent Economic growth will fuel dietary demand for animal proteins which will require cheap grain as feed This will force China to either subsidize grain production or look to foreign sources The major socio-economic effect on agriculture rather than a sustained decline in productivity may be a sector-wide reallocation of agricultural activity between regions and between types of crops Such a reallocation would involve mass movements of rural populations both into new agricultural regions and into urban areas the adoption of new cultivation patterns and farming practices vast changes in rural infrastructure and major shifts in China’s domestic and external agricultural markets Whether they participate in such a shift or not farmers will face pressures to increase profitability as farming is rendered more difficult by climatic and agronomic effects High-value commercial farming and crop specialization are likely to result causing production of less profitable staples to decline These pressures will likely make China a much larger food importer than it has been to date Agricultural Labor Surplus Despite the rapid industrialization and urbanization of the past three decades the proportion of China’s population engaged in agriculture remains far above optimal levels Over 300 million people are engaged in agriculture for income reasons where a workforce of 210 million would be able to produce the same amount of output By shifting production to different crops China could theoretically reduce the agricultural workforce to 100 million for the same amount of caloric output Climate change may also open up vast new farm belts in Siberia and Canada making new foreign food sources available to China and further decreasing the necessity for a large rural labor force A shift comparable to that in Japan where agricultural employment dropped from 40 percent in the 1950s to seven to eight percent by the 1970s is a possibility in China Sustained economic growth has so far provided sufficient employment for laborers moving off the farms to keep the sectoral shift manageable The number of unemployed workers in China is nevertheless in the tens of millions and increased agricultural efficiencies mechanization and stress from climate change may generate an employment crisis Desertification and Dust Bowl Eruptions Even if the overall impact on productivity can be successfully mitigated some of China’s key agricultural regions such as the North China Plain will face acute climate change-induced agricultural stresses primarily from water scarcity and contamination but also from extreme events such as dust bowl eruptions Unsustainable practices such as overgrazing and cropping of marginal lands have been a serious problem in Inner Mongolia and other semi-arid parts of China for many decades Combined with climate 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views change-induced water scarcity these human impacts are exacerbating the spread of deserts and incidence of dust storms The potential is increasing for dust bowls in northern and western China more serious than those in the central United States during the 1930s As was the case in the United States sustained dust storms would generate a mass exodus of environmental refugees from the affected areas as well as a severe and sustained decline in regional agricultural productivity Depending on the timing of dust bowl eruptions and severe water shortages these effects may be mutually reinforcing Alternatively water scarcity may preemptively move people and agricultural activity out of areas most at risk for dust bowl eruptions mitigating their impact Pollution and Public Health Challenges Industrial growth in China over the past several decades has caused major increases in pollution and environmental degradation One of the challenges in addressing pollution is that much of it originates from aging intensely-polluting industries in the poor interior of the country where there are fewer resources available to move to cleaner technologies On the one hand climate change impacts may worsen the effects of some of this pollution and create mutually reinforcing stresses on the environment On the other hand climate change mitigation policies may also mitigate pollution and encourage China to move toward a greener economy Water Pollution Industrial pollution of rivers and groundwater is a major problem in China and climate change will make its effects worse As climate change-induced water scarcity makes water a more precious resource the need to keep China’s water clean will increase Flooding will bring large populations into contact with contaminated water In addition industrial water pollutants may enter the food chain as well as reduce soil fertility Air Quality and Aerosols The special measures China had to take to improve air quality in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics highlight that China has per capita the world’s worst polluted cities in terms of airborne particulates It is a leading producer of pollutants such as carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide which exacerbate climate change effects The density of industrial aerosols will compound the effects of increased airborne dust produced by desertification and potential dust bowl eruptions Urbanization intensified by climate change will put larger populations at risk from air pollution Shifting rain and wind patterns may spread atmospheric pollutants over wider areas and contaminate already stressed ecosystems Other countries in Asia such as South Korea have been able to make great strides in reducing air pollution which China may be able to do as well Paradoxically some studies suggest airborne particulates may partially shield China from warming occurring at higher levels of the atmosphere If so reducing air pollution may intensify the predicted rise in air temperatures Public Health and Social Services Climate change can be expected to place additional stress on China’s already under-developed public health and social services systems In the past 15 to 20 years the availability of medical services life expectancy and the quality of natal care have increased That said China is still a roughly $3 000 per capita GDP society where social safety nets are a luxury Panelists judged that as per capita GDP climbs to $15 000 per capita by 2030 coverage and cost of social safety nets will have improved significantly However progress to date has been unevenly distributed between rural and urban areas and remains inadequate in many regions across the country Responsibility for social services has increasingly devolved from the central government to the regional or local level and Chinese citizens are required to pay an increasing share of the costs Progress in expanding services has not kept pace with public expectations creating a source of popular discontent As a consequence of climate 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views change public health and social services systems will have to bear the burden of major influxes of population into some areas while in others local revenue bases such as from agriculture may dry up Demographic Challenges Urbanization Urbanization is one of the most important demographic trends in China right now Rapid urban growth is creating a major strain on China’s urban infrastructures which will also be stressed by climate change Such stress takes the form of urban expansion into rural areas growth in size of cities and towns and most significantly a major population shift from rural to urban areas Urban areas might be faced with a mass influx of environmental refugees as a result of climate change This movement might be too rapid for urban areas to absorb particularly if refugees elect to stay in the cities permanently One of the most critical issues is urban access to water The water scarcity expected in northern China impacts the water needs of urban populations as much as it does those of agriculture or industry Cities without water are a problem on an entirely different scale than crops without water particularly if water availability declines rapidly or changes sporadically The problem is compounded by the patterns of urban growth Urban growth has been distributed throughout the more populated parts of the country as county seats expand into cities Much of the expansion has therefore taken place in inland areas with inadequate water resources Urban expansion can follow a pattern like Tokyo—high density and high efficiency—or like Houston—a low efficiency sprawl The way resources are priced has led China’s cities to match the Houston model Every square meter per person in housing increases the per capita amount of building materials The average building in Beijing requires 70 kilograms of building materials per square meter If China’s urbanization follows a low density trajectory it will therefore eat up a great deal more steel cement and other materials which in turn will require more water and power usage to produce them Such a pattern of urban growth will exacerbate climate changeinduced stresses on resource availability Many of the people moving to the cities for work are younger Chinese They have tended to send remittances back home which helps to mitigate the problem of the labor force moving while providing support to older relatives still on the farm This is changing as rural transplants become more settled in urban life and ties to the rural areas become weaker Combined with the aging population this reduction in familial support places a greater burden on the state to provide for the elderly In addition there is a deep rural-urban socio-cultural divide in China with urban populations tending to perceive rural migrants as backward and inferior Urban residents and officials also tend to disregard the resource needs of rural areas which is significant given the cultural and demographic shift of the Chinese Communist Party CCP toward urban members Residents of Shanghai for example tend to see environmental and resource problems in Anhui as none of their concern As climate change places urban and rural cultural groups in proximity and forces greater resource allocation to rural areas social tensions and prejudices are likely to increase In addition to urbanization China will face a number of other demographic challenges over the next two decades and beyond Although the direct impacts of climate change on these phenomena may be minor they will place additional stresses on China’s resources and compete for resources that might otherwise be allocated to climate change 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Aging of the Population China’s population control policies over the last several decades notably the one child policy adopted in 1979 have skewed the country’s demographics resulting in a rapidly aging population Over 400 million Chinese citizens of the so-called ‘aging cohort’ born before the one child policy are at or are soon to reach an age where they will no longer be economically productive China lacks a state social security system or an adequate overall healthcare system to support them China’s Confucian ethics make it the filial responsibility of children to support their elderly parents and grandparents but this traditional system of familial support has broken down The growing mobility of the population and the trend toward urbanization have led younger Chinese to move away from their parents In addition the one child policy has led to the ‘four-two-one problem ’ a single worker will have to support two parents and four grandparents The latter problem is a major roadblock to the adoption of a system like that in Singapore legally obligating children to be responsible for their parents Whether the state institutes a social security system to take care of the elderly or the responsibility falls to their offspring the demographic imbalance will produce a major transfer of resources from the working to the nonworking segments of the population This could become a major problem on China’s growth potential as it will need more resources to expend on elderly care and climate change-induced challenges On the other hand the increased need for healthcare and workers in social services to care for elderly may offer a new source of service employment Gender Imbalance Due to Chinese cultural and economic preferences for male offspring the one child policy also has resulted in a gender disparity in the population There are significantly more male Chinese than female in the post-one child policy generations This male-female imbalance will further restrict the potential size of future generations In addition it will leave large numbers of males without mates generating a pool of unsettled manpower that could potentially be mobilized to threaten public order These men are also a demographic likely to be disproportionately involved in climate change-induced shifts such as migrations and changes in employment patterns Economic and Industrial Challenges Climate change almost certainly will have a significant impact on China’s continued economic growth but the magnitude of that effect is uncertain China’s economic resilience to climate change will be contingent on the manner and effectiveness of the country’s responses both to climate change-induced challenges and structural transformation of its evolving economy China has undergone several decades of rapid economic growth and current projections indicate that China will be or will almost be the largest economy in the world by 2030 Although China’s economic development model has produced spectacular economic growth it has had a number of unfortunate by-products of which environmental damage has been a prominent one Environmental constraints either local or global may nevertheless significantly hamper China from reaching its long-term growth targets Climatic pressures increasingly will play into Chinese economic decisionmaking and may force or accelerate a change in China’s economic behavior Even absent climate change-induced impacts on the economy export-led growth has reached a point of diminishing returns China needs to transition away from its investmentdriven export-led economic model to one driven more by domestic consumption and services In addition panelists judged China will need to master a series of new technologies including information technology and nanotechnology if it is to continue their economic success to 2030 and beyond This change in China’s growth model could produce more political contention and strife with adverse consequences for the environment 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Energy Challenges China already faces drastic near-term rises in energy demand as its economy industrial base and standard of living expand The country has transitioned from two decades of energy demand rising slower than economic growth to the past seven years of energy demand exceeding economic growth China’s economic growth has become increasingly energy intensive as heavy industry plays a leading role in the economy The dynamic of increasing energy demand is likely to accelerate over the next two decades exacerbated by increased climate change-induced urbanization and infrastructure demands As a result China will have little room to maneuver in terms of limiting energy production for the sake of climate change mitigation China has little option but to address energy demand primarily through domestically produced coal and imported oil which will lead to a severe rise in China’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions In addition if China’s economy continues to grow in an energyintensive manner it will produce an unsustainable strain on global energy resources Energyintensive development also generates suboptimal employment growth For example the five most profitable industries in China use half of its energy and produce half of its carbon dioxide but only employ 14 million people China will therefore face increasing pressure from economic and social as well as climate change standpoints to transition to a less energy-intensive serviceoriented economic model In addition there is substantial room to increase the efficiency of China’s industrial plant which is largely old and energy-intensive Employment Challenges Climate change is likely to significantly exacerbate the challenge of creating jobs for China’s workforce China’s labor market is in the midst of a multi-stage transition from agriculture to light export-oriented industry to heavy industry to services and domestic consumer products This complex process dictates that a large proportion of workers are in flux between jobs or between economic sectors The types of jobs and skills that are in demand are evolving Simply being an able-bodied worker will no longer guarantee someone a job Although in part employment has shifted toward skilled industrial labor a large part of the shift has been toward new areas of semi-skilled and unskilled employment such as services and construction The service sector is a ripe area for job creation that can be expected to boom as standards of living increase Although the service sector requires a new and unfamiliar skill set to rural migrant laborers the rest can be learned through on-the-job training provided that workers have basic literacy Compulsory education is expanding to rural areas providing a foundation that will make it easier for those leaving the countryside to find work In the medium-term there also will be almost unlimited job opportunities in the construction industry although many workers regard construction work as too hard Not only is the economy expanding and with it a need for more structures of all sorts but older poorly made structures are deteriorating and need to be replaced In the past the Chinese industrial sector could rapidly take in large numbers of unskilled workers for tasks that do not require a high degree of training This capacity has declined as growth in the low-skilled labor-intensive export sector has slowed leading China’s labor market to under perform over the past five years Some of the shortfall in unskilled employment will be offset as rising standards of living expand domestic demand for consumer goods allowing light export industries to re-orient to serve the domestic market Climatic stresses will likely prompt the expansion in areas such as healthcare and social services providing employment in those sectors The state focus on climate change and environmental initiatives also could bring “green” jobs into the economy in significant numbers 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China’s high rate of growth in the last three decades has kept employment levels high even as the nature of the labor market has changed rapidly Official unemployment estimates tend to hover in the 4 0-4 5 percent range although actual unemployment may be closer to 9 5 percent Assuming the continuation of current trends China’s economy would likely be able to continue to accommodate the shifting pool of labor That may not be the case when the effects of climate change are factored in Climate change pressures will increase internal migration and disrupt traditional modes of employment particularly in rural areas This will significantly intensify the large influx of unskilled rural labor into the urban and industrial labor markets driven mostly by desperation rather than employment opportunities As a result major discontinuities could occur between demand for jobs and demand for labor which could drive China’s unemployment rate much higher and generate severe socio-economic tensions Political Challenges Climate change is likely to exacerbate the major political dilemmas that China will face over the next two decades The world currently sees China becoming more successful under authoritarian rule than some democracies As China struggles to respond to climate change-induced challenges the flaws in China’s political system probably will become increasingly apparent to China’s population the government itself and the world at large In the longer term China’s party-state regime faces a need to increase its responsiveness and accountability to the public or risk losing its already questionable legitimacy Increased public responsiveness need not imply democratization The idea of “consent of the governed” resonates more with Chinese citizens than the word “democracy ” The Chinese do not demand the form and structure of a democracy to ensure that the government operates with their consent Democratic elections are one way to give the public influence over public policy but are not always an effective mechanism in the face of entrenched elite interests Elections provide a safety valve for public dissatisfaction that is not available in an authoritarian system but there may be other ways for citizens to vent stresses that may be exacerbated by climate change Panelists observed that according to the published government statements the Chinese government has no intention of allowing broad-based democratization to replace its monopoly on power Nevertheless the government recognizes that some form of governance reform and greater public say will be necessary to avoid a crisis of legitimacy in the longer term The precise form it will take remains unclear Through the Institute of Policy Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Science the regime is seeking to determine whether a government can receive the benefits of democracy without becoming a democracy For example can the government receive citizen feedback without accountability if it does not comply or respond to the wishes of its citizens The Chinese Government wants citizens to provide input and vent their frustrations but wants to retain a monopoly on policy decisionmaking For example NGOs or the Internet could provide alternative channels to receive feedback without direct accountability or elections On the other hand strengthening such mechanisms could create other challenges to the regime China’s senior leadership has conducted seminars in which civil experts are allowed to lecture without interruption allowing greater freedom to express unorthodox views There also have been experiments with limited democratic elections of junior party-state officials at the local level and in rural areas The debate within the leadership concerns the pace and scope of political reforms The added challenges of climate change will strengthen the political hand of those in China and especially within the Chinese Communist Party Arguably too rapid movement in the direction of 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views democratic reform and economic liberalization would jeopardize the stability and rapid decisionmaking capabilities that Chinese officials believe are at the heart of effective climatechange adaptation Climate change-induced pressures could therefore considerably delay government-driven political reform in China particularly if challenges prove intractable or longlasting On the other hand climate change will most likely significantly increase political instability as well as provide disaffected groups with a ready-made set of issues around which to mobilize Climate change may therefore raise the prospects of a political challenge from below Chinese political history is punctuated by often violent instability in the face of hardships when there is a sense that a fundamental social contract between state and society has been violated The repressive capabilities of the Chinese state are considerable and the prospects of a violent overthrow of the regime as a result of climate change are very remote In addition significant political change in China is unlikely in the absence of any credible political organization being offered as an alternative to the CCP Nevertheless a “populist revolt” could bring about a relatively peaceful political transition to post-communist rule by 2030 or beyond Despite temporary disturbances at the time the removal of the monopoly party-state’s limits on private enterprise and throttlehold on civil society would likely enhance state capacity to cooperate with business civic organizations and international entities to address climate change challenges Civil and Key Interest Group Responses State Corporatism Although China has come a long way from the totalitarianism of the Mao era the presence and influence of the party-state apparatus remains pervasive Nevertheless the groups and institutions that comprise civil society in more open political systems are relatively abundant and well-organized The vast majority exist under the auspices and supervision of the state rather than as autonomous actors however The party-state assigns officials and social leaders to run state monopoly associations for sensitive social groups such as industrial labor villagers women youth non-party professionals in various fields business executives and ethnic and religious groups Prominent examples include the Communist Youth League All-China Federation of Trade Unions and All-China Women’s Federation In addition government ministries state-owned enterprises and sectoral bureaucracies have their own social institutions including schools hospitals research centers and museums The bulk of civil society in China is therefore not strictly distinct from the state It comprises what can be termed a “quasi-state ” with varying degrees of practical autonomy and influence but with groups ultimately responsible to the party-state This system of “state-managed civil society” is known as state corporatism The socio-political space allowed for autonomous civil society is small and tightly bounded Even most civil groups that did not originate within the state or party systems forge strong links with the party-state at various levels to act effectively and escape official persecution Those that do not do so find themselves marginalized or even outlawed The party-state regards independent civil actors with deep suspicion even when they provide services the regime finds useful The regime fears that legitimating societal mobilization could be the beginning of the end for the monopoly of unaccountable power held by the CCP the maintenance of which is the regime’s number one priority Issue advocacy and even criticism of particular officials or policies may nonetheless be tolerated as long as it is limited in scope and does not call into question the broader legitimacy or actions of the party-state system 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views There are some advantages to the state corporatist system including the ability to quickly raise public awareness of issues The party-state has ready access to broad-based and compliant civil organizations that can be used to disseminate the state’s agenda on climate change and other issues to the public Examples include the campaigns to publicize the White Papers of Agenda 21 on sustainable development in 1994 and on climate change policies and actions in 2008 In addition although the civil actors that make up China’s quasi-state are inhibited from most forms of autonomous advocacy their links to the state provide an alternative avenue through which to exert influence on state decisionmaking particularly at the local level The basic system of monopolies is nevertheless under pressure from the reality of an increasingly pluralistic society Social Resilience The financial human and environmental resources that China’s society can bring to bear will to a significant extent affect the management of the consequences of climate change A robust civil society committed to reversing the causes and addressing the effects of climate change may be crucial for success Chinese environmental history is filled with instances of severe environmental challenges and responses from both state and society This history shows a remarkable capacity in China for responding to environmental challenges which the public response to the May 2008 earthquake in Sichuan demonstrated The public at large as well as previously marginalized NGOs and civil groups stepped up to participate in the relief The earthquake may prove to be a turning point for public awareness of China’s environmental challenges China’s history also reveals weaknesses in environmental stewardship resulting from bureaucratic corruption aversion to risk and self-gratifying social behavior However the greatest hindrances to an effective civil response to climate change-induced challenges are the limitations on autonomous societal action by the CCP-dominated state regime The state may well preclude civil society from effectively responding to climate change Overall Social Responses Migration China can expect a number of cross-cutting broad-based civil responses to the kinds of pressures and challenges climate change will bring Mass migration is probably the most daunting of these Internal migration for economic reasons already represents one of the principal challenges to China’s economy and social stability It has primarily taken the form of rural migration into urban areas but also of migration of laborers between urban areas The combination of water scarcity desertification possible dust bowls and shifting agricultural patterns appears likely to generate a massive migration from China’s northern and western margins into the heartlands of the east and south This will pose important resettlement challenges for national and local governments in China The most likely destination areas already have very high population densities both rural and urban Although the broad pattern of population movement can be predicted specific climatic crises may generate large-scale rapid migration of refugees the sources and destinations of which are not easily predictable Such rapid migration could pose the most serious challenge to China’s stability Anti-Government Protests Despite state repression protests are a growing phenomenon in China If more extreme climate events occur tensions between civil society and the government might increase The environment has been a rallying point for civil advocacy and protest and perceived government failures to adequately respond to the impacts of climate change will most likely generate wide-scale public responses or demonstrations In the wake of the Sichuan earthquake parents of the children killed in the quake went to court to prosecute the officials who 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views built the shoddy schools and lined their pockets with the leftover money China’s courts and other administrative infrastructure are not designed to accommodate public grievances directed at the state but may face such issues more frequently in the future The obvious natural causes of many localized climate change-induced events such as floods or droughts may blunt the political anger that might otherwise be directed at the government as long as the government is seen as responding adequately to disaster conditions and has shown preparedness for such events On the other hand protests may move from mild non-violent advocacy to rioting and even uprisings if the public perceives that climate-change-related policies are unfair or ineffective If emergency assistance is inadequate social unrest and attacks on local governments and the CCP will surely erupt Charges of corruption in the form of embezzlement of funds initially targeted for climate change mitigation also will be a rallying cry for protesters The Chinese Government has considerable experience in responding to protests but the state tendency to respond with arrests and repression to public criticism of the government may escalate matters as groups increasingly feel that their legitimate grievances are being suppressed Philanthropy Based on it responsiveness to other crises China’s population probably will respond to greater stresses and more frequent natural disasters with increases in charitable giving The Sichuan earthquake was a recent example of the Chinese willingness to donate and volunteer through private as well as state channels Philanthropy in China is pervasive For example instead of waiting for government response Chinese citizens filled their cars with supplies and headed to the site Charitable giving on an individual basis is not regarded as threatening by the party-state as such activities by organized NGOs Although such individuals cannot influence processes at the national level over time they will gain the ability to influence processes of local government Socio-Economic Interest Groups Rural Society Rural Interests Rural interests will be among those hardest hit by climate change-induced challenges Farmers herders and village-dwellers are already under stress from socio-economic shifts that threaten the rural way of life Over the next 20 years they will face both more frequent and more severe climate-related crises as well as sustained climatic shifts that will force them to adapt or relocate The primary interface between China’s rural population and the state is at the level of village governance Rural interests are not well represented at higher levels of government Unlike under Mao China’s current rulers have a distinctly urban focus On the one hand this limits the advocacy potential of rural interest groups On the other hand the central government is willing to allow greater freedom of action in forming local associations and even sanctioned experiments in local democratization in rural areas The demands of responding to climate change-induced challenges will necessitate much greater attention to rural areas by the state Although this will bring an increase in resource allocation to rural issues it also will bring greater scrutiny and likely a reduction in state tolerance for rural political experimentation The overall response of farmers and herders to climate change will depend to a large extent on what mitigation policies the state puts in place The large size of the rural population and the endemic corruption incompetence and resource deficiencies of the government at the village and township level will hamper the pace and effectiveness of mitigation policy implementation 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Unless the state is able to adopt proactive mitigation policies and successfully implement them local farmers and herders will by default be the first responders to rural climatic stresses Although many projections of climate change impacts on agriculture assume negligible adaptation by farmers substantial technical evolution and innovation is occurring in China’s farming households The state corporatist system is effective at rapidly raising public issue awareness If information about climate change is widely disseminated farmers are likely to take proactive mitigation measures The nature and effectiveness of such measures and their impact on agricultural productivity cannot be accurately predicted In addition state interests in maintaining high levels of production of cheap grain for the cities and military may conflict with farmers’ interests in switching to more viable crops In such cases the state is likely to veto optimal agricultural responses to climate change Although some farmers may develop effective adaptations to climate change others may respond to local agricultural stress by turning to unsustainable practices or competing possibly violently for resources with their neighbors The role of the state and possibly NGOs in disseminating best practices for agricultural adaptation will be a crucial factor in mitigating such problems The predominant rural reaction to climatic stress is likely to be increased migration both into urban areas and into more productive rural areas Rural households will likely accelerate outmigration and consolidate farms in drought-prone regions Inter-rural migration is likely to result in a more concentrated rural population with increased resource competition and rural conflict This concentration of human pressure will likely affect the spread of climate changeinduced challenges even into areas that suffer less direct climatic stress In addition as younger members of rural populations migrate to urban centers of modern employment those left behind will be less able to cope with agricultural stresses Herding populations in China tend to occupy marginal land such as the steppe surrounding the Gobi Desert that will be especially at risk from climate change impacts Animal husbandry practitioners will have greater incentives to adopt mitigation measures as standards for responsible rangeland management appear more affordable Herding populations are even more likely than farmers to respond to climate change through migration This will reduce the number of ruminant animals on marginal land but increase their concentration in better-resourced areas increasing the possibility of violence between farmers and herders The possibility for conflict is intensified by the fact that many herders belong to ethnic minorities such as Mongolians while farmers are more likely to be Han Urban Interests and the Middle Class Although China’s per capita GDP remains far below levels in most developed countries economic growth has nevertheless produced a sizable and growing middle class Particularly in the wealthy coastal cities such as Shanghai the standard of living of the urban middle class affords access to lifestyle luxuries rather than just necessities This also results in dietary changes which include a demand for more meat As is the case in many developed countries the desire to live in a cleaner more sustainable environment is one of the ways in which this lifestyle freedom manifests itself China’s urban middle class will likely follow the same pattern previously seen in developing Japan and South Korea where economic growth brings the willingness and money to pay for cleaner energy and a cleaner environment As climate change-induced challenges become increasingly prominent the middle class may become an important source of resources to bolster China’s responses and mitigation measures 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China’s cities have become complex conglomerations of established urban families formerly rural families who have settled in the cities and migrant laborers who move from city to city seeking jobs This mixture can be volatile placing stress on employment and the rural-urban cultural divide On the other hand more urban residents originate from rural families than from urban families and this will only increase due to climate change Over time this shift should help mitigate rural-urban cultural incompatibilities as rural people acclimate themselves to urban living and a hybrid urban culture develops The timing of such a cultural reconciliation relative to when the cities will be hit by severe climatic challenges will play a large part in determining the level of urban instability and cultural conflict China will face Urban inhabitants are less likely to respond to climate change with migration than people living in the rural areas There is no economic or climatic incentive for urban dwellers to move to rural areas Without an option to displace urban stresses through migration cities are likely to experience greater levels of socio-economic conflict rioting crime and anti-government protests Business Industrial Interests China’s economic development has created a large and rapidly expanding set of private and semi-private business interests spread across many sectors including the energy industry heavy industry high technology environmental goods and services service sector industries and others The emergence of distinct interest group identities within the private sector has been slow and those identities in many cases remain latent The challenges and possibly new opportunities generated by climate change may sharpen conflicts among different economic interests and facilitate cooperation between those facing similar issues This is already accelerating the mobilization of latent identities into full-fledged commercial and industrial interest groups As with other civil groups business is closely tied to the state Businesses are not independent entities that lobby the government but their ability to influence state policy is nevertheless considerable State-business ties operate on two primary tracks Industries are overseen by state officials and ministries responsible for their sector of the economy This ensures industries have a constituency within the government and receive allocation of state resources and planning attention In many cases the same leaders act as sectoral officials and commercial executives In addition there is a well-established patronage system through which businesses cultivate personal ties with state officials Family members of power-holders pervade the world of business Unofficial networks of well-connected families are de facto a very powerful set of lobbies that have had a major influence on state policy in areas relevant to climate change The influence of business and industrial interests—both official and unofficial—has so far worked against effective state responses to climate change-induced challenges Commercial interests lead the effort to make money no matter the environmental impact Entrenched quasistate groups that control the most polluting heavy industries have colluded with leading families tied to the energy industry to forestall environmental regulation and ensure China continues to build polluting power plants When government reformers tried to create an ‘energy czar’ so that China could manage both its energy needs and its environmental imperatives such groups undermined the effort Even state-owned enterprises such as China National Petroleum Company CNPC have learned to manipulate the state for their own profit Similarly networks enriched by the energy industry have blocked state efforts to reduce China’s National Oil Enterprises’ ties to the Government of Sudan even though China receives little of the oil produced and much international criticism In addition access to foreign funding increasingly 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views has allowed private businesses to take autonomous positions vis-à-vis the state The capacity of China’s state apparatus to effectively respond to climate change may be significantly hampered by profit-seeking business and industrial groups Ethnic Minorities Ethnic minorities make up only about eight percent of China’s population which represents in excess of 100 million people with nine groups comprising over five million members 5 In many cases such as with Islam or Tibetan Buddhism religious divisions occur along ethnic lines Ethnic minorities are concentrated mainly on China’s periphery many in areas that will face serious climatic challenges such as water scarcity flooding and desertification Particularly acute climatic stress on regions where minorities are concentrated may be translated into ethnic unrest if the state is slow to respond or the Han majority is seen as receiving disproportionate assistance In addition minorities may increasingly migrate into traditionally Han-dominated areas raising the potential for ethnic strife The most sensitive issues are likely to involve groups already in conflict with the central government notably China’s Tibetan and Uighur populations Xinjiang and the Uighur Numbering over eight million the Uighur are a Muslim Turkic people residing in Xinjiang in China’s arid west The Uighur are closely related to populations in the former Soviet Central Asian countries and historically regard Xinjiang as “East Turkestan” rather than western China They have carried out a protracted ethnic and religious-based separatist campaign including acts of terrorist violence The conflict has been worsened by China’s “Develop the West” policy encouraging migration of Han Chinese into Xinjiang Xinjiang is mainly desert with water grazing land and population concentrated in only a few areas Han-sponsored development efforts have already put considerable stresses on water and other resources and climate change-induced water scarcity and desertification could intensify violent Han-Uighur conflict and lead to a regional crisis if not effectively addressed Tibet and the Tibetans Over five million Tibetans reside in Tibet and neighboring provinces such as Qinghai and Sichuan Despite the high-profile international campaign for Tibetan independence the Chinese Government has made progress in forcibly assimilating Tibetans by emphasizing economic and technical development while suppressing traditional cultural and religious practices As in Xinjiang large numbers of Han Chinese also have been encouraged to migrate into Tibet reducing native Tibetans to an underclass Those Tibetans clinging to traditional ways of life in rural areas will suffer disproportionately from the environmental impacts of climate change on Tibet as well as from ongoing economic development and resource exploitation This will likely lead to accelerated assimilation as more Tibetans are forced into urban living and dependency on state largess as well as increased Tibetan-Han tensions Religious Groups Religious groups have a growing presence in Chinese society after years of suppression and enforced marginal status For the majority of China’s population scientific atheism remains an unstated orthodoxy supported by the state This orthodoxy is nevertheless tinged with quasireligious Chinese cultural practices incorporating elements of Taoism Buddhism and Confucian philosophy More explicit forms of folk religion are quietly making a comeback along with adherence to non-indigenous religions such as Christianity With the prominent exception of Tibetan Buddhism the Chinese Government tends to be more tolerant of religious practices 5 The Zhuang Manchu Hui Miao Uighur Tujia Yi Mongolians and Tibetans 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views among ethnic minorities whose religion is seen as part of their culture In contrast the partystate has tended to view Christianity as particularly threatening because it is not primarily confined to marginal minorities as is the case with Islam The officially sanctioned Protestant association has 20 million members but there are also a large number of underground or unregistered churches Religious groups still suffer broad official discrimination but local governments with less central support and increasing responsibilities are tapping into traditional religious interest groups for humanitarian work in providing social services such as education and disaster relief For example unregistered Protestant Christian churches and nonprofits both domestic and international were among the first and most effective responders to the May 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Central authorities banned media coverage of their contributions but local authorities have gained a new appreciation for what they can offer In addition religious leaders have increasingly taken on community leadership roles whether in the village or urban neighborhoods Religious groups and religious-based nonprofits have the potential to become an important social support structure and response mechanism to climate change-induced challenges The extent to which the party-state will allow them to assume such a role remains to be seen given that they could also become focal points for organized dissatisfaction with the regime and its policies Nongovernmental Organizations As China’s socio-economic system has become increasingly pluralistic there has been a tremendous proliferation of civil non-profits Domestic and international non-governmental organizations involved in charity poverty alleviation and development and environmental protection have been prime beneficiaries of state permissiveness since the mid-1990s Boundaries on NGO activities will likely continue to loosen in the future NGOs are in many cases better suited than the state to address climate change-induced challenges at the grassroots level They might therefore end up institutional “winners” as a consequence of the climate changes that are hypothesized over the next twenty years As with other civil actors the extent to which NGOs will develop into effective institutions depends on what the state permits them to do This in turn will depend on the policy “frames” that they adopt NGOs will need to frame and publicize their issues in terms that generate policy legitimacy and governmental allies One such avenue used successfully on tobacco legislation is to partner with members of the National People’s Congress which can publicly demand and disseminate issue reports from responsible agencies of the central government In any case the institutional constraints faced by NGOs will ensure that the majority have little influence on opinion or policy The minority who have influence may profoundly impact how China is able to deal with climate change Government-Organized NGOs State corporatism unlike socialism does not require that the state be the sole purveyor of civic organization Nonstate groups are tolerated as long as they are ultimately subject to state oversight and authority In order to facilitate this Government Organized NGOs GONGOs are an integral feature of the state corporatist system Created and organized under state auspices GONGOs are often set up as officially sanctioned monopolists of civic activity in particular sectors In both intent and practice GONGOs often crowd out the development of independent NGOs GONGOs are the only domestic NGOs allowed to operate at the national level but their activities are strictly limited to their functional identity GONGOs responsible to the Ministry of Civil Affairs for example are to contribute to poverty relief rather than addressing climate change 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China’s GONGOs vary widely in their degrees of practical autonomy and legitimacy Some GONGOs such as the China Charities Federation or China Christian Council are sham associations run by elderly retired bureaucrats or by loyal party members or followers These sorts of GONGOs are largely discredited in the eyes of their involuntary constituencies and their attempts to promote disaster relief or environmental protection are viewed with skepticism Other GONGOs have made efforts to improve their accountability autonomy management practices staff structure and training and organizational culture often to obtain foreign funding and support as state funding is cut Examples include CAST the official association for science and technology professionals headed by Deng Xiaoping’s daughter Deng Nan as well as the China Youth Development Foundation headed by Hu Jintao associates from the Communist Youth League GONGOs are likely to become a primary vehicle through which the party-state disseminates and promotes climate change-related policies GONGOs can be used to mobilize social responses and resources in a way that is controlled and not threatening to the authority of the party-state To perform a large-scale mobilization role effectively however GONGOs will have to boost their public credibility legitimacy and flexibility in defining their missions more broadly Such reforms are likely to increase their de facto autonomy and result in a convergence between GONGOs and independent domestic and international NGOs State Limitations on NGOs Domestic NGOs operating outside the GONGO realm are constrained due to regime paranoia that they will become competitors to the party-state Even at the local level the party-state is more concerned with the potential threat from NGOs than the ability of NGOs to solve issues The state therefore raises major bureaucratic obstacles to NGO development and activities which NGOs have devised ways to circumvent NGOs are required to register with the state but the state makes it difficult to do so In addition NGOs—with the exception of the Red Cross—are banned from raising funds domestically NGOs are often established through family money but as their size increases they rely on foreign funding In contrast the growth of private enterprise is encouraged As a result NGOs often register as businesses to avoid bureaucratic red tape which consequently obscures the actual number of NGOs operating in China The scope and scale of NGOs are strictly limited The state discourages them from addressing multiple issue areas and they are prohibited from cooperating with each other The government prohibits national NGOs except a handful of GONGOs and limits NGOs from growing too large or crossing administrative boundaries NGOs have in some limited cases responded to official constraints on scale by proliferating downward—splitting off local and provincial-level branches from larger GONGOs NGOs are vulnerable to shifts in government tolerance Protest even of violations of the government’s own rules may lead to repression and or imprisonment by the Chinese Government NGOs that become too successful may find their employees arrested or disappear NGOs have the best chance of surviving this precarious situation if they are fully transparent to the state Their most important points of contact in the local government may be the secret police whom the NGO cultivates and keeps fully informed Large-scale challenges such as climate change or the global economic downturn highlight the Chinese state’s need for the input of private resources to address them The state was forced to allow unprecedented private involvement in the massive relief and rebuilding following the 2008 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Sichuan earthquake NGOs might also be used to address other policy goals such as providing a low-risk venue for citizen feedback to the government As a result a renewed attempt to provide a regulatory framework and policy environment conducive to growing rather than restraining the nonprofit sector is likely Environmental NGOs NGOs may have greater opportunities to play a constructive role in meeting climatic challenges than the daunting state-imposed limitations would suggest The Chinese Government has been particularly tolerant of NGO activity on environmental issues The government is well aware that the country needs the help of environmentalists domestic and international to control and limit the causes of climate change The government particularly the Environmental Protection Agency has therefore been willing to encourage and ally with at least some independent environmental NGOs Recognizing that local corruption and inefficiency often hamper environmental protection the state has used NGOs as a mechanism for improving policy implementation Because of this permissive state attitude NGOs are perhaps more effective in environmental protection than in any other area At the local level social and ecological movements have been allowed to protest and even achieve reversals of state policy on issues such as dam construction at least temporarily The NGOs nevertheless find it difficult to influence policy having to work through official agencies whose primary interest is to “control” rather than “listen” to them Exceptions often require special connections or status For example the sponsor of the first major private Chinese NGO study of the environment The China Environment Yearbook of 2005 is both the founder of Friends of Nature and also a member of a famous family Environmental NGOs are likely to become more visible and vocal as climate change issues become more prominent The global and domestic environmental movements are mutually influential and involvement of China’s younger generations at home and abroad will be increasingly significant Official tolerance will be contingent on environmental advocacy remaining strictly limited in scope and avoiding broad criticisms of the party-state In addition given the Chinese Government’s aversion to pluralistic solutions it may seek to develop new models of environmental protection that do not rely on environmental NGOs even if this reduces effectiveness in dealing with climate change International NGOs The Chinese Government views foreign NGOs with suspicion even though it recognizes their useful contributions to addressing many socio-economic and environmental issues Paranoia that the United States and other foreign governments are using NGO infiltration to promote regime change in China was heightened by the role played by political advocacy NGOs in the eastern European ‘Color Revolutions’ of 2004-05 The ‘Color Revolutions’ led the government to impose a freeze on development of the non-profit sector that has eased recently as security concerns have abated International NGOs INGOs nevertheless exert a significant influence on the mindset and practices of both officials and domestic NGOs in China particularly at the local level INGOs operating in China are expanding their employment and training activities For example Clear World Energy Inc established in 2003 and headed by a Swedish national invests in clean energy and climate change-related businesses and nonprofit social enterprises in China and elsewhere As China faces growing large-scale challenges from climate change INGOs are a channel through which international funding resources and expertise can flow into the country to boost both state and social capacity As their importance as environmental and social actors increases 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the party-state will most likely seek to develop institutional mechanisms to exert control and oversight over INGO activity in China It is unclear how effective this will be particularly as a need for climate change-related expertise and resources increases In addition INGO partnerships with domestic Chinese NGOs are likely to boost their effectiveness and profile as well as making the INGOs advocates for domestic NGOs vis-à-vis the party-state Another important international factor is the increasing flow of international philanthropic funding into China In order to avoid funds being diverted to corrupt local officials or to state priorities international donors such as transnational corporations operating in China prefer to fund NGOs rather than state entities Corporate and EU donors have been especially interested in funding NGOs who conduct green projects This new source of funds has enhanced the resources and autonomy of many of China’s NGOs even some GONGOs Groups raising funds overseas must choose between appeasing the local government which allows them to operate and responding to the international donors NGOs are increasingly moving toward pleasing their funding sources to keep their cash flow steady This practice also has increased demands for accountability and adherence to international NGO standards This has led to the phenomenon of “NGO Incubators ” organizations that facilitate the development of legitimate NGOs and connect them with international donors State Response Party-State Leadership The 200 senior officials with executive responsibility at the central and provincial levels will be responsible for the bulk of the critical decisionmaking on climate change The senior leadership includes leaders assigned oversight of core functions such as media and education state personnel intelligence and security military and economic and foreign affairs The senior leadership is not a static group In the post-Mao era China’s leadership has developed a system of pre-planned generational turnover of its leaders The most recent such turnover was in 2002 when the “Fourth Generation” of CCP leaders under Hu Jintao succeeded to power Each successive administration brings with it a revised policy agenda although there has so far been a great deal of overall continuity As climate change impacts become more severe climate change mitigation can be expected to remain important on the leadership agenda The administrative burden on senior leadership is considerable There is also tension between focusing on pressing problems and planning for the long term If major competing priorities such as a sustained economic downturn arise attention to climate change mitigation may become more rhetorical than practical The leadership policymaking process is not transparent but internal leadership politics are likely to be less harmonious than they are represented There are bureaucratic tugs of war over issues such as central versus provincial interests and environmental protection versus poverty alleviation Leadership cliques and patronage networks advocate for their particular interests and policy preferences The leaders of the major bureaucratic interests push their own agendas often at each other’s expense The perennial division between leadership reformers and hardliners is likely to play into climate change mitigation policymaking Climate change remains a fairly new issue on the national agenda one that the leadership is not accustomed to dealing with Climate change mitigation may require the inclusion of a broader selection of actors than the leadership is used to including in its decisionmaking including nonstate groups In addition addressing climate change will require major policy initiatives and reforms which in turn will require the hardliners within the leadership to be appeased In the past hardliners have 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views threatened to block major reforms unless they are accompanied by crackdowns in other areas Hardline measures may be the cost of doing business for leaders pushing tradeoffs or concessions associated with climate change mitigation This raises the concern that major domestic climate change reforms might bring with them harsh measures directed against either domestic groups or internationally Although the transfer of power between different leadership generations and administrations has managed smoothly for the most part inter-generational conflicts remain an issue The mindset of older technocrats is affected by the legacy of the hierarchical system of vertical control Younger better educated better trained officials are now coming into the upper echelons of leadership including from the quasi-private sector They are more willing to test the limits of the system and more receptive to innovation whether it originates inside or outside the state This raises the question of how the Chinese leadership’s approach to problems of risk and uncertainty—risk culture risk perception risk management—is evolving Climate change questions involve areas of uncertainty the assessment of which involves risks—their estimation and acceptability and the distribution of the costs and benefits of accepting risks Chinese leaders and citizens have traditionally been risk averse particularly the current Hu Jintao administration Effective climate change mitigation measures may nevertheless require successor administrations over the next several decades to take substantial risks impacting critical areas such as agricultural production water management and industrial development Risk-averse leaders may find themselves paralyzed which could delay or derail an effective state response The People’s Liberation Army In addition to the civilian leadership the People’s Liberation Army PLA has a major role in setting the policy agenda although it is increasingly less influential as the focus of the leadership has shifted to the economy Nevertheless the PLA receives a major share of the state’s resources and can be expected to resist diverting attention to climate change mitigation On the other hand the PLA has a major role in responding to natural disasters such as floods storms or earthquakes The PLA has cultivated a popular role as the savior of the Chinese people and will be eager to take the lead in responding to climatic disasters The PLA also is becoming more interested in developing capabilities to respond to overseas humanitarian contingencies which may be increasingly climate-related Climate change has the potential to become a major new mission area for the PLA which could become a constituency advocating for more resources for climate change response This brings a risk because it would distort resource allocation to aspects of climate change mitigation with greater PLA involvement which could produce a less than optimal response overall Regime Security The most fundamental priority of the small policy elite who run the Chinese party-state apparatus is the maintenance of the integrity of the regime and its continued monopoly on power They accomplish this through a combination of many means including effective repression and co-optation or prevention of the development of potential competing political groups They have so far been able to maintain a degree of popular legitimacy even without accountability or democracy mainly by maintaining high rates of growth supplemented by appeals to popular nationalism Their most important credential may be their demonstrated competence in dealing with challenges and delivering results to the people Climate changeinduced challenges may put significant strain on their ability to continue to deliver satisfactory solutions This could prompt greater resort to repressive measures to maintain CCP rule 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Regime security concerns will also likely hinder moves toward legitimating societal mobilization to help address climate change Development and Economic Growth Continued economic development and sustained high rates of growth are a key priority for the party-state Since the economic reform era began in 1978 the ability to facilitate continued economic growth has become the principal credential legitimizing the regime’s unaccountable monopoly on power Development is seen as a basic right that cannot be infringed upon At the same time previous development patterns in the region such as in Japan or South Korea demonstrate that the rate of growth eventually reaches a plateau as the economy nears developed parameters The rate of economic growth in China is already decelerating raising regime concerns about arresting any further decline Reductions in growth could have profound political implications because much of the regime’s popular legitimacy depends on continued high growth rates On the one hand climate change-induced challenges will likely place growth in jeopardy increasing the regime’s incentive to deal with such challenges effectively On the other hand certain types of mitigation measures such as curbs on industrial energy use as well as reallocation of resources to address climatic impacts also could threaten China’s ability to grow Despite the emphasis on growth China’s leaders realize that unrestrained growth cannot continue without attention to other development objectives such as education the environment promoting innovation reducing inequality and promoting a harmonious society China’s current five-year plan for 2006-2010 set forth new goals to address climate change as part of a shift in development strategy from rapid growth to sustainable growth This shift had been foreshadowed by the adoption of a concept of “Scientific Development ” Scientific Development is China’s conceptualization of many of the elements associated with international models of sustainable growth While it is admirable in theory few in the government fully understand what the term means and inculcating it into the state bureaucracy has proven difficult Moreover the current economic slowdown has made achieving the restructuring goals of the current five-year plan unlikely The draft under way for the next five-year plan which probably had impressive climate change goals probably is undergoing significant reworking Internal Stability The concern of China’s leaders with internal stability is a subsidiary expression of their overriding priority of regime security Of all the top-tier state priorities internal stability is likely to suffer the most direct challenge as a result of climate change Given the projected scope and secondary effects of climate change China will face significant political instability Although this may create incentives for greater resource allocation to climate change mitigation there are also many other projects where funds can be used to shore up state stability The regime risks treating the symptoms—socio-economic and resource conflicts displacement of populations and humanitarian crises—rather than addressing the climatic root causes In addition especially at the local level long term action s for climate change mitigation may be sacrificed in order to maintain near term social order for instance if employment is threatened State Capacity In many ways the capacity of the Chinese state is increasing and the government will likely be able to address the consequences of climate change with some success The state is experienced in coping with large-scale challenges and has amassed a good track record of doing so effectively The economic and socio-political challenges from predicted climate change seem less difficult than the challenges from China’s economic reforms in recent decades Those reforms have fostered a comprehensive state system for financing and implementing a fast-paced 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and successful development program This system also provides the state with ideal mechanisms for funding and supervising a wide range of programs that both respond to immediate climatechange-induced crises and longer-term impacts of climate change Over the past 30 years China has refilled reservoirs of social capital built up technical and human resources and developed institutional adaptability and national scientific and technological capabilities that should allow it to manage the challenges of climate change The state has become more professionalized its revenue base is ample and it has demonstrated effectiveness in mobilizing funds for use in public investments and crisis-related outlays It has been willing and able to borrow from the best global practices in developing policies Its mechanisms of social control increasingly tested remain quite functional China is pouring a lot of money into social safety nets such as the healthcare and welfare systems These systems have been acutely under-developed and remain inadequate but are improving quite rapidly Nevertheless the scale of the problems social safety nets will be called upon to deal with may increase exponentially due to climate change impacts China’s wealth and state capacity can be expected to grow significantly over the next 20 years By 2030 China will most likely match the United States in the overall size of its economy albeit at a significantly lower level of per capita GDP Although the challenges it will face are daunting overall state capacity should be sufficient to manage most contingencies out to 2030 Beyond 2030 the ability for the state to respond is more problematic State Planning and Policymaking China began long-term twenty year projections focused on population and resources as early as 1980 State research on sustainable development picked up steam starting in the early 1990s These projections are incorporated into the cycle of Five Year Plans that form the long-standing structure of China’s development policy planning In recent years the state’s long experience with 5 10 and 20-year projections has been bolstered by the availability of more and better quality data and more openness to inputs from outside experts The capacity of the central government to research and plan for environmental protection energy conservation and climate change has steadily improved China’s reliance on expertise from the state bureaucracy and think tanks in formulating policy has proven surprisingly effective Nevertheless this policymaking process is changing Although still mainly a closed process policymaking is increasingly open to input from a broader spectrum of elites in business academia and the sciences The composition of the senior policy elite has shifted primarily through the inclusion of representatives of the leading sectors of the economy Executives from the energy petroleum steel and banking sectors have increasingly superseded ministerial bureaucrats on the Central Committee Although in the state corporatist system the role these business leaders play is not distinct from the responsibilities of government ministries for their sector this shift will likely result in policies more favorable to private industry possibly at the expense of overall national interests Government by experts may increasingly be replaced by government by commercial interest groups The bureaucrats and experts of the National Reform and Development Commission and State Council’s Development Research Center will have a hard time forcing climate change policy decisions over the heads of powerful corporations Policy Implementation Despite effective state planning and policy decisionmaking translating goals and guidelines into actual policy changes and implementing them down to the local level remains a substantial challenge The growth of the market sector and decentralized political 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views authority combine to create a mismatch between central goals and results on the ground China’s policy record since market reforms began in 1978 illustrates that the state’s policy implementation capacity is considerable when it is fully applied but only top priority issues receive state attention Many Chinese policy statements laws and regulations focused on environmental protection receive high marks for language concepts and intent but are not effectively implemented or enforced In part they may fall victim to competing priorities China’s robust stimulus and infrastructure investment program in response to the global financial crisis for example may hinder or overshadow the implementation of policies designed to mitigate climate change through a less energy intensive path to development China’s impressive state capacity will mean little if climate change does not remain a top-tier state priority and receive the full backing of the central government to ensure local compliance on policy implementation Although China’s leaders have been calling for local leaders to pay attention to these problems they have not always pushed environmental policies hard enough In some cases the central government has responded to difficulty in implementing new laws and policies by giving up and deferring them for considerable periods Weak attempts by the state center to implement best environmental practices are readily circumvented by local powerholders prioritizing their own income possibilities and growth at any price From the local perspective the capacity of the state to carry out environmental policies looks less than impressive An additional roadblock to policy implementation on environmental and climate change issues is the inadequacy of the State Environmental Protection Agency It is understaffed under-resourced does not have significant reach into local levels of government and lacks the authority to close down polluters Policy implementation is also hampered by a longstanding political phenomenon regarding rhetorical initiatives originated from the senior leadership dating back to the Mao era China’s political leaders have a tendency to make pronouncements using symbolic rhetoric such as “Cultural Revolution ” “Three Represents ” or “Scientific Development ” the meaning of which is unclear to the vast majority of state and party officials The bureaucracy then shifts to implement the new policy without a clear understanding of what it means A process of trial and error then ensues until the leader provides positive feedback on the results In the meantime policies may not be implemented or may be incorrectly implemented in an inconsistent fashion across the system Anecdotal evidence suggests that climate change and environmental initiatives may be susceptible to this problem Crisis Management China’s ability to draw on major national resources to address both natural and political crises to 2030 rapidly and effectively will be substantial China has experienced an impressive crisis management learning curve based on the lessons of the 1998 “once in a century” floods the 2003 SARS epidemic the snowstorms in south China and the 2008 earthquake as well as military tension or incidents involving the United States Emergency management response capabilities have improved and building state capacity for crisis management remains a high priority China’s currently evolving crisis management systems should be able to handle projected climate change-related challenges satisfactorily The government’s crisis management capacity may be less of a problem than its capacity to maintain discipline in enforcing remedial measures once a crisis has passed Limitations on State Capacity The Chinese state continues to exhibit chronic problems that limit its capacity These include well-known problems of governance such as weak interministerial coordination to overcome stove-piping local governments resisting national policy 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views directives and endemic corruption Predictions about state capacity to respond to climate change need to take the limitations and internal contradictions within the system into account China’s state structure is still organized according to a residual Leninist “stovepipe” command and control bureaucracy The state is divided into vertically-organized functional hierarchies each responsible for a particular sector or functional area of state activity These hierarchies extend all the way from the upper echelons of the central government down through the provinces to localities and into segments of civil society associated with the hierarchy’s area of responsibility This structure facilitates central control of critical issue areas but the stovepipes tend not to interact with each other There may be insufficient coordination between parallel offices responsible for coal or rail transportation in a particular province resulting in duplicating efforts and wasting resources In addition the CCP has its own parallel duplicate structures at all levels of government Overall the stovepipe state corporatist structure while it provides the state with formidable abilities to marshal resources and personnel is wasteful of state capacity As climate change constrains state resources this may become a serious deficiency In addition climate change produces broad-based effects that will require effective coordination and tradeoffs between many functions of the party-state cutting across the bureaucratic stovepipes This may be resisted by bureaucratic elements with a vested interest perhaps involving patronage relations in the existing hierarchical administrative system Center-Local Conflicts Government authorities at different levels of the government—central provincial and local—have significantly divergent institutional interests Following the reconsolidation of tax revenues in favor of the central government in 1994 many provincial and local governments were left with large ongoing budgetary shortfalls Local levels of government in the agricultural heartland of central China which will be hard hit by climate change-induced challenges are particularly impoverished The central government continues to delegate increasing administrative responsibilities to the provincial and local level often in the form of unfunded mandates The resulting major gap in interests and financial resources between the different levels of government is a primary challenge for effective state response to issues such as climate change Chinese leaders probably will see climate change as prolonging the need for efficient centrally directed capabilities If China’s leaders are as committed to improving the environment as they seem they are in a position to address at least the worst problems resulting from climate change The recentralization of finances has provided the center with the funds to address pressing largescale issues such as environmental issues or the current economic crisis This centralization of finances also strengthens China’s hierarchical political system which has both advantages and disadvantages As long as higher levels have funds lower levels will look to them rather than the constituents they are supposed to serve This system undermines responsiveness to lower levels while increasing the control of higher levels Not only is any transition toward democracy undermined but it appears that the incentive to provide public goods of which the environment is a prime example is diminished On the other hand higher levels can demand compliance with targets for public goods such as the environment Although climate change will require centrally administered solutions effective responses also will depend heavily on crisis management effective policy implementation and innovation at the local level A paradigm shift among the rank-and-file Party and state bureaucrats and local 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views officials will also be necessary if climate change mitigation is to be successfully implemented Despite incorporating “Scientific Development” goals into the official cadre evaluation system the Party’s personnel system has yet to overcome the de facto incentives for local officials to pursue immediate gains from “rapid growth at all costs ” Although local officials will be happy to submit huge “wish lists” for central funds to deal with climate change the local focus for actual projects will be on very short-term priorities not long term climate change Local leaders will be in a very difficult situation as internal instability driven by climate change increases They typically seek to avoid and suppress problems rather than address them The central government may set climate change-related policy targets but such targets can be difficult to measure and easy to evade The failure of the central party-state to effectively empower local levels of government or enforce its dictates will undermine its legitimacy This will have important political ramifications both positive and negative Given various types and differing severity of climate change effects across different parts of China many problems would be more effectively dealt with at the provincial level There may be increased incentives to move toward a truly federal system with greater authority accorded to the provinces Local authorities may also become more reliant on international and local NGOs and private philanthropy to bolster their capabilities Instances such as the Sichuan earthquake demonstrated that NGOs and civil society can effectively contribute Increased dependence will likely render local authorities more responsive to civil interests regardless of whether there is a formal opening or democratization of the government On the other hand local discontent can be expected to increase particularly if responses to climate change-induced crises are ineffective A vacuum in local state capacity may allow local criminals and gangs to usurp control in some areas and corruption and black market activity probably will be exacerbated Corruption Corruption and black marketeering remain prevalent in China despite periodic vigorous official anti-corruption campaigns Corruption results in substantial diversion of state and private funds and resources away from their intended applications reducing state capacity Corruption concerns impose extra oversight burdens on the central government and popular perceptions of corruption undermine regime legitimacy Although most corruption operates at the local level local governments typically lack the authority to deal with corrupt officials forcing the central government to take responsibility In addition economic development also has allowed vested interests to become more entrenched and state and private enterprises to become increasingly blurred Elite families and state and private sector leaders have formed complex patronage networks that seek to maintain the status quo and enrich their members To date corruption in China serves as a market mechanism compensating for bureaucratic inertia The rise of corrupt elite networks may make more obstructionist forms of corruption more prevalent The requisite flow of resources to local levels of government and proxy actors to address climate change-induced challenges may increase the opportunity for corrupt actors to enrich themselves at the expense of successful responses to the problems Prospects for State Failure China’s party-state will face significant challenges as a result of climate change In addition to overall social political and economic challenges it will have to overcome or mitigate systemic contradictions within the party-state itself Nevertheless it seems highly unlikely that climate change will cause a complete failure of the Chinese state or even a sudden violent change of political system within the next two decades Although it may face political crises for example 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views due to a succession dispute or failed political reforms China’s commitment to maintaining its economic momentum and innovativeness will not be derailed by climate change China’s trajectory of increasing state and civil capacity mitigates the prospects that even large-scale challenges will lead to a critical failure On the other hand both the central government and civil groups in the quasi-state and private sector have increased their capacities partially at the expense of local and provincial government capacities Local and provincial institutions will bear the brunt of climate change-induced challenges Unless they are properly resourced or the central government or civil groups step in to support them acute climatic impacts could produce partial state failures at the local or even provincial level Such localized failures are likely to prompt greater central government intervention and more resource allocation to response and mitigation measures State Climate Change Mitigation Policies In the 2008 update to the current five-year plan China adopted an ambitious and unprecedented set of sustainable development and climate change goals under the banner of the National Climate Change Program NCCP The NCCP reflects strong national leadership and a nationally-coordinated professionalized response to both international trends and obligations as well as to domestic challenges China is nominally making a major push to increase its overall adaptive capacity to cope with climate change including raising public awareness enhancing research and development and seeking to leverage international resources There are nevertheless grounds for caution in taking China’s claims about future commitments or demonstration projects at face value Past initiatives often have proven to be a combination of wishful thinking and public relations China can readily adapt the administrative system it used to finance and implement a fast-paced and successful development program to develop and implement climate change policies The kinds of investments and economic policy adjustments that China has been implementing for at least 30 years can also be used to manage climate change Measures such as price increases investment outlays and precautionary preparations have long-run importance for reducing the severity of subsequent outbreaks of climate-change-related events Institutions and mechanisms such as China’s planning commissions and government-guided investment programs are also the ideal for funding and supervising a wide range of programs that both respond to immediate climate change-induced crises and longer-term responses to climate change Developing effective responses will nevertheless be a daunting task Many of the required initiatives are very large scale and costly Chinese policymakers in any case tend to think big in terms of solutions such as moving the capital south or diverting whole river systems north The lack of capacity at the local and provincial level as well as the inter-provincial and cross-border nature of many of the major climate change-related problems will strengthen the central government’s role in addressing them The lack of transparency in China’s policymaking may have a problematic effect on policy selection Leaders may be inclined to keep the most severe problems secret Without feedback from the public and a broader selection of officials in the affected areas and nonstate experts the internal state debate may produce consideration of drastic measures that could put large populations at risk Issues of corruption and poor preparation will crop up but the current trend in China shows the high likelihood that appropriate reforms and policies will continue to emerge 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China will most likely turn to a variety of different approaches to manage climate changeinduced challenges The degree of climate change the severity of the impacts and their timing will have a decisive impact on where China ultimately decides to place its emphasis Taken as a whole China’s responses to climate change are likely to result in an increasingly human managed environment That is state action on a large scale will alter the country’s environment to mitigate or compensate for climate change It seems inescapable that this project of environmental management will increase China’s claims on global energy and other resources but depending upon the technological trajectories of the project relatively more or relatively less energy and resources could be required Incentives and Market-based Structures Climate change mitigation will require comprehensive attention to adjusting incentive structures in China’s economy society and government China is likely to accelerate introduction of market-based incentives for sensible urbanization migration and business location decisions better adapted to climate change For example the state could have a major impact on the nature of urban expansion through building codes and taxes on materials The party-state will also need to create incentives for its own officials to focus more on climate change The major professional incentive structure for lower level government officials is the cadre evaluation system which measures their performance The cadre evaluation system emphasizes measurable achievements in areas like revenue collection public order and family planning with the greatest weight being placed on economic growth By making economic development the number one criterion for cadre evaluation the party-state aligned personal and local interests with national goals The resulting emphasis on economic growth is at least in part responsible for China’s ability to rapidly implement economic development policies This strategy has also had more problematic effects in terms of causing officials to engage in cutthroat competition to gain recognition of their jurisdictions as leading producers with no regard to environmental consequences or efficiency The cadre evaluation system could in theory be used to promote progress on climate change mitigation The adoption of “Scientific Development” in fact prompted efforts to incorporate environmental protection into the evaluation system In practice this has not been very effective because environmental improvements are difficult to measure compared to other elements such as economic growth The government attempted to develop a “green GDP” to act as a metric but has for the time being abandoned the idea If an effective climate change mitigation metric could be developed and incorporated into the evaluation system it would create a significant incentive for lower-level officials to implement state climate change and environmental policies albeit possibly in an inept or superficial fashion Resource Price Reform China has benefited from low prices for energy water and raw materials which is one of the driving factors behind China’s wasteful and profligate economic development pattern Resource prices are already on the rise as a function of growing demand but China is also becoming a wealthier country more able to continue to afford higher prices To raise costs sufficiently to create incentives for conservation and greater efficiency the state may need to intervene by imposing taxes on resource use and regulating rates Price reform on its own may not be sufficient without other changes in usage patterns and incentives because resource demand is in many cases fairly inelastic 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Conservation and Rationing Rationing of critical resources is an unattractive option for a number of reasons Less available resources will be a constraint on continued economic growth with attendant risks of unrest and loss of capacity needed to deal with climate change Severe rationing may generate prompt political unrest among affected constituencies In addition rationing systems are an open invitation to corruption in allocation decisionmaking In spite of these major disadvantages the Chinese Government may have little recourse but to impose rationing if price reforms and infrastructural solutions do not keep pace with water energy and other resource shortages brought on by climate change Voluntary conservation is a different matter China’s leadership is aware of how wasteful and inefficient many of the country’s economic structures and practices are The leaders are equally aware that resource constraints will shortly become a hard reality in China Some degree of conservation rationalization and increased efficiencies will be a necessity Accomplishing this proactively and on a gradual basis is clearly preferable to being forced to do so under crisis pressures Two principal factors have constrained movement on conservation Waste and inefficiency are so ingrained in China’s current industrial system that enforcing conservation could constrain growth something China is not willing to do In addition industries and local officials have little systemic incentive to want conservation and have often proven able to avoid or deflect central government initiatives in this area Progress will require stronger state commitment altered incentive structures and greater pressure on offenders The state may be able to leverage the support of NGOs or the public at large in bringing pressure to bear Enforcing Environmental Standards China will face major proximate challenges from pollution of air and water particularly in urban areas What China does to address its pollution problems could be key in determining the direction of its carbon emissions For example if China switches to cleaner power to reduce aerosols greenhouse gas emissions could also be reduced while if they just put screens on their smokestacks to capture aerosols greenhouse gas emissions will continues Although China in many cases has industrial and environmental standards on the books that exceed those in fully developed countries the Chinese treat them as eventual goals rather than putting them into practice The problem of lagging policy implementation needs to be attacked head on In the automobile industry for example China’s standards are higher than the US Government’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy CAFÉ standards Although the principal purpose of the high standards is to disadvantage foreign manufacturers if implemented effectively they would substantially improve fuel economy Instead they are largely ignored and China’s cars remain inefficient Because the state attempts to keep fuel prices depressed to bolster economic growth there is little market incentive to move to hybrids or other high-efficiency vehicles This may change since China is positioning to becoming the main electric car producer Infrastructure Solutions China has a long tradition of developing and maintaining large-scale infrastructure to manage weather and climate contingencies For example the government has made substantial flood control investments and maintains dikes and river embankments Climate change-induced challenges will necessitate infrastructure projects on the largest scales involving massive expenditures of resources and manpower Climate change-augmented urbanization will necessitate major expansions of transportation power and communications infrastructure Major infrastructure projects will be necessary from the local to the national level in sectors ranging from agriculture to water management and energy 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Crisis Management and Disaster Response China’s current government has already demonstrated a strong ability to be able to respond with military personnel as the core resource to provide relief services when serious natural disasters strike Each severe climate changeinduced event such as a drought or storm will bring a flurry of costly emergency assistance such as water trucks food income supplements and government-directed bank loans to offset shortterm hardships More frequent extreme weather events particularly if they occur in quick succession will put a premium on building state capacity for crisis management including development of emergency manpower other than the army Increasing recourse to allowing responses from groups in civil society such as NGOs may be necessary Managing Public Responses China has a long tradition of expecting good government to plan for and respond effectively to natural crises As China grows wealthier and more resources are available to the state public expectations undoubtedly will only grow higher Failure to effectively deal with climate change-induced crises will erode regime legitimacy and threaten political stability In many cases political repercussions from climate change will be difficult to distinguish from the political repercussions of major economic reforms Chinese Governments at all levels will need to discern which public complaints are legitimate and which are not Chinese authorities are almost certain to continue to develop the combined strategy of ameliorating underlying conditions responsible for social unrest while using the People’s Armed Police to assure social stability and minimize property damage and loss of life Overall Economic Restructuring China’s economic development already dictates a move away from heavy industry and toward services and production of domestic consumer goods Nine percent growth in per capita consumption is more beneficial to the average Chinese citizen than 13 percent overall GDP growth based on exports and investments This shift may also constitute an effective climate change mitigation strategy a synergy that may provide considerable impetus to effective climate change responses in China Heavy industry such as steel production is very resource-intensive not only in terms of raw materials but also water and electricity Economic restructuring will inherently facilitate greater resource efficiency and slow the growth in demand for energy The Chinese Government also recognizes that improved efficiency and profitability requires that they start moving industrial production offshore to Brazil for example then selling it back to the growing Chinese consumer market Despite the emphasis of recent economic growth China does not enjoy a comparative advantage in heavy industry For instance steel produced almost anywhere else will require a less carbon-intensive process than in China As China’s industry moves offshore additional opportunities to improve efficiency will open up Energy Policy China’s ongoing economic development will drive continued increases in energy demand for some time to come The Chinese leadership will not accede to limiting energy use if it is at the expense of economic growth Nevertheless they are committed to improving energy efficiency The Chinese are already becoming more efficient in certain areas For example modernization of plant and equipment is replacing older inefficient equipment with more efficient newer equipment There is plenty of opportunity to extend such improvements for example by adopting a low resistance delivery system for electricity to reduce waste in transit In many cases China already has access to the technological solutions it would need to reduce emissions and increase efficiency of resource use but simply doesn’t implement them because they would raise production costs For example the simple step of washing the coal used in China’s power plants before burning it would measurably reduce emissions but carries a high 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views costs both in money and water In cases such as this the state can encourage implementation by fining polluting industries Energy costs in China are already increasing which in theory ought to result in moves toward conservation and efficiency of use In practice China’s current industries have relatively inelastic energy demand so their energy usage has continued unabated Energy-inefficient but cheap industrial processes have hampered efforts at using rate hikes to encourage energy conservation even with rate hikes payments have been delayed with no concrete moves toward improving efficiency until the state actually shuts off the power It would obviously be very economically disruptive for the Chinese Government to take such steps on a wide scale China’s planned move away from its export-led heavy industrial economic model may provide a solution Services and consumer-oriented industry not only use less energy but have greater energy demand elasticity so they will be more responsive to energy prices and ready to accept rational conservation measures A slowdown in steel and cement production could produce a reduction in green house gasses equal to the output from Germany’s entire coal-based generation Energy supply is as much of a concern for China’s leaders as energy demand China places a premium on security of supply in its energy policy Any limits to China’s access to energy is perceived as a threat to job creation and regime stability This is problematic in that China’s domestic energy resources are in most cases limited relative to its energy demand In the case of electricity energy security dictates reliance on abundant but polluting domestic coal Coal cannot provide the whole answer and for other types of energy such as fuel for transportation China’s policymakers know they will have to depend on foreign energy sources They have tried to compensate by seeking to purchase direct control of energy sources rather than relying on international energy markets but that has not worked in practice Even China’s own state-owned energy companies sell most of what they produce on the international markets rather than providing it cheaply to China Control of supply routes such as the Arabian Sea or Straits of Malacca by potentially hostile powers such as the United States renders China’s practical energy security illusory Climate change may actually improve China’s foreign energy supply options Warming may make arctic energy more accessible and open the sea lanes through the Arctic Ocean potentially as early as 2015 China has ad hoc status as a non-arctic state in the Arctic Council and is beginning to build ships to meet arctic standards 6 The arctic route may provide China cheap access to Russia’s oil and natural gas particularly as more Siberian ports become accessible Energy Production China’s energy production profile is likely to change significantly over the next two decades Ideally China would like to move away from coal both because it is carbonintensive and polluting and because the coal mining industry is unsafe and the government would like to shut down many mines It currently has no other cheap secure short-term options but this is beginning to change as structural changes in the coal industry raise production and transportation costs In any event China’s coal supply will begin to approach inadequacy by 2030 mandating a shift to other energy sources The capital investment in China’s coal-fired power plants will likely not inhibit such a shift China’s controlled financial system means that the building costs are depreciated after a decade so abandoning the plants does not generate a 6 The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation coordination and interaction among the arctic states with the involvement of the arctic indigenous communities and other arctic inhabitants on common arctic issues in particular issues of sustainable development and environmental protection in the Arctic 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views loss Coal will remain a prominent aspect of China’s energy production profile but its relative and absolute share of production will decline considerably over time Petroleum constitutes China’s second most important energy source Although China has domestic oil fields they do not approach levels where self-sufficiency is an option There is a strong push to reduce the demand for oil but projected increases in demand from private automobiles and other modes of transportation render such efforts unlikely to succeed Even if China aggressively pursues a de-carbonization program projections indicate that emissions reductions for the first 25 years will come from industry and power generation Oil demand for transportation will most likely not decline significantly until after 2030 Nuclear hydroelectric and renewable sources such as wind and solar will most likely assume increasing importance in the Chinese energy sector China’s electricity production capacity is projected to grow to 1 000 gigawatts by 2020 Fossil fuels could provide about 700 gigawatts but at the cost of massive carbon emissions that would have a profound impact on the world climate If China were to cut its fossil fuel use by half it would need to make up about 650 gigawatts from other sources China is looking to develop smaller safer nuclear reactors and could fairly quickly build up its nuclear energy program to produce up to 250 gigawatts of electricity Non-hydroelectric renewable may be able to eventually provide a further 200 to 250 gigawatts China has a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects in the planning stage including the Tsangpo project in Tibet which would be the world’s largest Climate change may impose significant limits on the reliability of hydropower since a combination of glacial melting and reduced or more irregular rainfall is likely to cause reductions in river flows There are also significant regional implications associated with all-out hydroelectric exploitation of the Himalayan watershed because many of the rivers in question terminate in other countries The actual potential of hydropower may be markedly less than the theoretical hydroelectric contribution of up to 300 gigawatts Nevertheless taken as a whole other energy sources could feasibly compensate for a 50 percent cut in fossil fuel consumption in China Natural Gas Despite impressive gas finds inside China there is not enough domestic natural gas to accommodate a major expansion of natural gas use as a cleaner alternative to coal and fuel oil Despite concerns about security of supply Chinese companies are aggressively pursuing natural gas contracts overseas The most likely supplier would seem to be Russia but in practice there are major drawbacks Despite more than a decade of negotiations little headway has been made on building natural gas pipelines from eastern Siberia to China Even if agreement on pipelines could be reached the economics of Russia’s gas markets are unfavorable to China Chinese consumers will never pay for gas what German utilities pay for it so Russia will send the gas west rather than east In addition Russian gas would have to be piped right past existing natural gas fields in western China to reach consumers on the coast China therefore might as well exploit its own fields Moreover Russia has shown itself to be a very unreliable supplier repeatedly shutting off gas to Ukraine and Europe for political reasons The pipeline plans were also made when prices for liquefied natural gas LNG were higher LNG is now a much more attractive option for China than gas pipelines It can be delivered by tanker to China’s eastern urban centers China has focused on Iran Qatar Indonesia and Australia as potential natural gas suppliers Iran may not be a viable option so long as international sanctions remain in place It lacks liquefaction technology to convert its gas to 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views LNG form and sanctions bar China from providing it As an alternative to costly pipelines Russian natural gas could be liquefied and shipped to China by sea The opening of arctic shipping lanes and Siberian ports may make this option a viable one If China can secure an overseas supply LNG power plants are significantly cleaner than coal- or oil-fired plants An LNG plant produces about half the carbon emissions of the most efficient coal-fired power plant let alone the average Chinese coal-fired power plant China’s plans call for the construction of 15 LNG power plants but such plans are always more ambitious than reality The scale of energy production involved means that even 15 plants would not decisively reduce China’s emissions In the long term world natural gas markets will continue to be tight limiting its potential as an expanding source of energy for China In practical terms while China’s LNG expansion will have a major impact on the world LNG market it will likely not have such a large impact on China’s emissions Water Policy China’s climate change mitigation policies will in the first instance depend on how the government handles the major hydrologic changes that will occur in the country Water scarcity particularly in the north will force either wholesale population movements out of the most severely affected areas or massive diversion of water between regions Either of these results would impose a daunting logistic burden on the Chinese state The state’s initial approach has been to deal with the problem through large-scale infrastructure projects in the same vein as the Three Gorges Dam China already has initiated a massive South-to-North water diversion project which will use thousands of miles of canals to divert water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River The first phase of the project is scheduled to be completed next year the second phase by 2030 Additional large-scale infrastructure projects of this type will be required to address the escalating northern water crisis Such projects are nevertheless only likely to alleviate not solve the problem of water shortages China’s current government has already demonstrated a strong ability to be able to respond with military personnel as the core resource to provide emergency assistance when water-related crises such as floods or drought strike Depopulation of rural areas through migration to cities will somewhat ease pressure to occupy rural areas most at risk for water-related crises On the other hand urbanization particularly the expansion of cities in the drier inland areas will necessitate major investments in urban water infrastructure from the level of increased water piping in individual buildings to new reservoirs and water treatment plants There is a risk that if this is undertaken at the local level it will be done in a wasteful and irrational manner that worsens water inequalities between cities and between urban and rural areas A large degree of central planning may be needed on allocation of water resources to include water rationing and economic incentives for sensible construction and investment patterns The state can employ market-based mechanisms to create incentives for water conservation or changes in water-use and settlement patterns Ideally as Chinese society becomes wealthier water will get more expensive In practice the true public cost of water may not be passed on to the consumer The state can compensate for this by raising water charges and levying higher taxes on drier areas Large infrastructure costs will be associated with providing water in some areas but not in others The pricing of water by location has been politically unpopular but would help reconcile water demand with water availability Taxation levels and water fees that reflect the true public cost of sustaining economic and household activities in drier northern China will facilitate longer-term beneficial market-based adjustments in behavior such as 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views conservation and migration to wetter regions In addition China’s heavy industry is very waterintensive so higher prices will also incentivize the desired transition to a service and consumer goods-based economy Enforcement of a water pricing mechanism could be difficult as cutting off water to businesses and households in payment arrears will generate backlashes Corruption and favoritism in allocating rates and forgiving payment arrears are likely and even if they do not widely occur the public is likely to perceive them Because of the political risks political gridlock or weak policymaking could hinder the raising of prices although each severe water shortage will increase political will to take action The state could also require purchase of insurance against flood and cyclone damage in wetter areas or drought or water shortages in drier areas This sort of insurance can convert large infrequent crisis-inflicted costs into predictable significant annual charges Such predictably higher payments in crisis-prone regions will create an incentive framework for sensible crop selection housing and business location decisions Agricultural Policy One of the major decisions the state will face is whether to permit and facilitate diversification away from grain production Most agricultural studies suggest that failure to do so will significantly hamper the adaptive capacity of China’s farmers and lead to significant declines in production A transition to higher-value crops that are less water-intensive will be necessary for farmers to maximize profitability in drought-prone regions In addition such crops can be profitable on smaller agricultural plots whereas grain is only profitable on large plots using mechanized farming This switch would therefore facilitate the continuation of labor-intensive small farming easing pressures of migration to cities Despite the advantages of permitting crop switching China’s leaders may be reluctant to accept such a solution Cheap grain is needed to feed urban dwellers and the military so a move away from grain production is a strategic decision that would have to be made at the highest level of government The government may prefer to increase subsidies for grain production to avoid becoming reliant on foreign sources Perhaps the one area in which China has maintained near total self-sufficiency has been agriculture—if one ignores China’s large fertilizer imports Food security and grain self-sufficiency in particular is an almost sacrosanct strategy The Chinese Government has stated frankly that agricultural self-sufficiency is necessary to ensure social stability and that in an international crisis food might be used as a weapon Subsidies nevertheless cannot mitigate the basic problem that grain-based agriculture will face decreasing productivity due to climatic shifts In the longer term China will be forced to go to the international market on a large scale raising the question of whether the world is capable of “feeding China ” China’s food procurement policy may parallel its overseas energy policy China may create agricultural trading companies similar to its state-owned oil corporations and seek to purchase overseas farmland suitable for grain production As with energy these policies will most likely not be able to free China from the global food market China is reforesting converting uplands from grain to forestry that will act as a terrestrial carbon sink In combating erosion China’s long experience with tree-planting and dune-fixing as steps to fight desertification should continue to attract government resources especially as grazing pressures subside and allow such programs to be more effective Enhanced government investments of the kind already implemented so widely have a high likelihood of adequately moderating increased eruptions of dust storms and continued spreading of deserts 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Regional Implications The trans-border impacts of China’s environmental problems are of concern to many countries as other countries will feel the effects It seems unlikely that this situation would lead to international conflict but it could lead to increased political tensions regional economic disruptions and deterioration in the quality of life for hundreds of millions in the region As resources become more constrained while China’s resource demands continue to grow China will likely seek to assure its access to critical resources on its periphery Such resources could include energy resources in Siberia Central Asia and beneath the China Seas water resources in the Himalayas and in Siberia and arable land that might open up as climate zones shift China’s capacity to take action to secure its vital interests can be expected to improve as it continues to develop its military capability Regional Water Issues One of the more direct consequences of climate change for the region may be seen in South and Southeast Asia as a result of the combination of glacial melt in Tibet and Chinese river management practices The Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau form the principal watershed feeding the rivers of East South and Southeast Asia Through control of Tibet China can exert source control over much of the water in those regions China’s development program in Tibet has not traditionally taken into account the fragility of the plateau or the interests of downstream countries As climate change imposes increasing water scarcity on China and other countries in the region the water resources of the Himalayas will become an increasingly important strategic asset The implications of China’s water management decisions are already becoming a major longterm national security concern for countries such as India and Vietnam China is engaged in a number of major hydroelectric projects in Tibet that threaten the water access of South and Southeast Asian countries Projected hydrologic effects of climate change on China dictate that China’s interest in Himalayan water will most likely shift from hydropower to irrigation and drinking water Chinese planners are well aware that projected water scarcity will necessitate large-scale diversion of water to address domestic needs As scarcity becomes more severe China will have very little room to compromise with downstream countries China is in a very good position with regard to Himalayan water Not only does it securely control the sources of the major rivers but existing international law favors the upstream country in disputes over water rights Despite the existence of regional water management institutions such as the Mekong Commission China has little incentive to consent to some form of equitable regional water management scheme Cooperation would by default reduce China’s control of critical water resources it will need in the future Downstream countries have little recourse None is in a position to challenge China’s upstream control of the rivers and initiating a conflict over water rights would risk potentially catastrophic Chinese reprisals such as wholesale diversion of rivers The water issue is nevertheless likely to create serious ongoing tensions that may play themselves out in other venues In the longer term conflict could occur over Siberian water resources including not only the Amur River but Lake Baikal which holds the world’s largest single volume of fresh water Aerosols China has one of the largest dust contributions in the world from dust blowing off of the Gobi desert and its industrial and environmental aerosols threaten other countries in the East Asian 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views region Continued drought and desertification in northern China will increase the trans-border movement of dust and other particles to the immediate detriment of Korea and Japan with impacts on North America and the global climate as well Countries on the receiving end of China’s aerosols have incentives to assist China in coping with its air quality challenges through technology transfers and provision of funding for aerosol mitigation measures and reclamation of denuded land Regional Migration Cross-border migrations prompted by climate change could prove destabilizing for China as well as its neighbors Whether migration occurs into or out of China will depend on relative neighboring government successes in addressing the effects of climate change Chinese Emigration Emigration into neighboring countries such as Russia Mongolia or Vietnam might act as a safety valve for China’s population in response to acute climatic stress The capacity of those countries to accommodate large numbers of Chinese immigrants is nevertheless limited even without climate change-imposed resource constraints Emigration from China is not likely to be confined to China’s Han majority Ethnic minorities such as Mongolians Uighur and Tibetans might cross the borders into Mongolia Central Asia or India and join with their kin In some cases this might alleviate ethnic conflicts involving those groups but they might also use neighboring countries as bases from which to continue conflicts with the Chinese state Heightened stress on populations in the host countries could result in conflict between Chinese migrants and locals China already witnessed similar episodes during riots in Indonesia where members of the well-established ethnic Chinese communities were attacked and women raped More recent Chinese migrants may find themselves in even more precarious positions vis-à-vis hostile local groups The Indonesian violence caused a furor in Beijing and China can be expected to react harshly to future anti-Chinese violence in neighboring countries Siberia and the Russian Far East The numbers of Chinese economic migrants crossing the border into the Russian Far East are already considerable As yet most of them move back and forth over the border rather than settling but sustained climatic pressure could change that Pressure from desertification in China’s Northeast could increase Chinese migration into the Amur River valley and Russia’s Maritime Provinces—areas where ethnic Russian demographics are in decline The potential exists for the Russian Far East to become demographically Chinese a process that will likely be accelerated by climate change This shift could create serious tension between Russia and China eroding the recent improvements in bilateral relations between the two powers Mongolia Mongolia is wary of large inflows of Chinese as the Mongolian construction and mining industries depend on Chinese migrant labor Native Mongolians are not interested in industrial jobs They either subsist as herders on the steppe or work in the service sector in the capital Mongolia recently suffered two years of severe drought which generated tension between Mongolians and Chinese as herders were forced to seek other employment Climate change is likely to inflict more drought and large-scale desertification on the Mongolian steppe which could leave a large unemployed Mongolian workforce competing with Chinese migrants Ethnic conflict in Mongolia could spread to China’s own Mongolian population which is likely to face particularly acute stress from climate change 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Immigration and Refugees Increased immigration and refugee flows into China as a result of climate change are distinct possibilities depending on the severity of climate change impacts on other countries along China’s periphery Immigration is not likely to significantly stress China’s capacity given that the relative numbers involved would be miniscule compared to the likely domestic migration within China China is likely to try to keep refugee and immigrant groups geographically contained China has pursued a similar policy with the significant refugee flows it has received from North Korea not only environmental refugees but also political and economic ones North Korea’s capacity to cope with climatic pressures is very questionable given the ruinous state of its economy As has been the case with past humanitarian disasters such as famines a climate change-induced catastrophe in North Korea would by default spill over into China’s Northeast Climatic pressures from desertification and water scarcity could also create refugee flows from China’s arid neighbors such as Mongolia and the Central Asian republics A worrisome unknown for China’s government is the extent to which refugees would join with their ethnic kin within China potentially worsening internal ethnic instability and conflict China might also become an attractive destination for migrants from tropical parts of Asia that may receive more severe climate change effects particularly if China copes relatively well with climate change Migration from Southeast Asia could assume proportions similar to that between Latin America and the United States If China fares markedly better than countries in Southeast Asia it will likely have an incentive to bolster these countries’ adaptive capacities and promote regional cooperation in order to forestall large-scale migration Overall Foreign Policy Implications China’s rapid rise and apparent ambivalence toward many of the values and institutions of the existing global order has raised concerns that China is a revisionist power that will seek to overturn the international system The situation does not appear to be that clear cut China is ascendant toward a leadership position in the international system Chinese leaders see the present moment as one in which China should become the global hegemon succeeding the United States just as the US replaced Britain as the global hegemon after World War I As China assumes a leadership role in the international system it will need to collaborate with other powers such as the United States Europe and Japan in managing global crises associated with climate change China’s approach to such a leadership role is less clear China’s leaders perceive their country as unique a “G-1 ” Since the de facto demise of revolutionary Maoist ideology they do not identify themselves as the standard-bearer of an international movement or ideology such as democracy or Communism Instead they see China as a civilization unto itself a global moral pole whose values and achievements others can emulate but not join China does not necessarily view the international system as constraining it nor does it necessarily seek to replace existing institutions with its own China has on the whole avoided either integrating with or undermining international institutions This is not to say that China has treated such institutions with disregard In fact it has been willing to join international institutions and agreements as long as doing so does not subordinate it to international authority On the other hand China is not willing to be the dominant power in institutions it joins as long as no one else is either For that reason it has avoided institutions the United States exerts a decisive influence over such as APEC while embracing ASEAN 3 and 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the United Nations as well as aid from the IMF and World Bank China played an instrumental role in creating an international security organization the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO Its approach has been pragmatic and cynical using international institutions and agreements that best serve China’s interests China’s overall approach toward international institutions is an important indicator of how it will approach international cooperation on climate change mitigation Its posture suggests a lack of fundamental commitment to most international institutions and agreements except in an instrumental way This reflects a sense that international regimes such as the Framework Convention on Climate Change FCCC are not always designed in ways that reflect its interests Similarly China accepts international standards on environmental degradation in the same way that it accepts human and labor rights—formally but not substantively For example China sits on the board of the International Labor Organization even though it has no intention of allowing free labor unions In the final analysis China’s approach suggests that their strict compliance with international agreements cannot be counted on if the terms of the agreement begin to significantly detract from state interests and priorities While violating a formal treaty obligation would put Beijing in a difficult position China’s leading global position and economic clout should insulate it from most adverse consequences Given China’s leverage in finance and other arenas it would be very difficult for the United States to force Beijing to adhere to a climate agreement if Chinese leaders decided to abandon it China’s Foreign Policy Perspectives on Climate Change China strongly believes in equitable responsibility and therefore expects countries that are primarily responsible for greenhouse gas emissions to bear the greater share of the costs for mitigating climate change Chinese leaders contend that the US and other industrialized democracies hypocritically export their polluting industries while China is unfairly used as a scapegoat At the same time China realizes that regardless of who is principally responsible climate change will have significantly negative consequences for China resulting in the need for implementing mitigation and adaption programs Climate change is likely to increase China’s overall dependence on international sources of energy food and technology China remains wary of international markets that it cannot control preferring outright control of resources As its external dependence increases it will most likely seek to establish a growing forward presence in the world This will likely take the form principally of Chinese companies purchasing critical resources in foreign countries China probably will pursue greater cooperation with foreign partners and engagement in setting the terms of international trade In addition if faced with insecure sources or supply lines China may see a need to establish diplomatic or military footholds in regions of interest These processes are already under way in many areas of the globe including Africa and Latin America China’s leaders approach international cooperation on climate change and other issues in terms of how it will benefit their interests International cooperation is not perceived as good in itself Nevertheless the need for international support and cooperation in addressing climate change mitigation will ideally put a growing premium on maintaining good relations with neighboring countries and access to Western resources technology ideas information and expertise This has already increased Western influence on Chinese economic planning through the carrot and 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views stick approach—project funding on the one hand and pressure to meet international standards on the other China’s International Climate Change Challenges Global Migration By 2030 major parts of the world especially in tropical and subtropical regions will be facing more serious climate change challenges and possibly serious natural disasters and consequently political instability and social disorder Like the developed countries China may become an appealing destination for environmental migrants and refugees seeking relative order and stability China is unlikely to accede to large-scale immigration given its cultural traditions and the massive internal migration the state and society will already have to contend with Under these circumstances China will find itself with two major policy imperatives—to take action to reduce and divert the international flow of climate change refugees and to collaborate with the developed countries to intervene on behalf of undeveloped or underdeveloped nations struggling to cope with both poverty and climate change repercussions On the other hand the effects of climate change are likely to result in emigration of Chinese overseas As segments of Chinese society become increasingly wealthy they will look for more environmentally attractive living conditions outside of China It is likely that middle-class and wealthy Chinese will expand their overseas property investments and emigration Should this reach an unprecedented scale an anti-Chinese backlash may develop overseas raising the salience of emigration to China’s foreign policy International Pressure Although China portrays itself as a champion of the developing world its interests diverge from those of the G-77 countries as it rapidly becomes wealthier and more industrialized This divergence is especially relevant to climate change issues China faces growing international pressure due to its status as a leading greenhouse gas emitter and polluter yet the G-77 countries lack leverage with China as they are desperately in need of Chinese investments China responds aggressively to public criticism and smaller countries may suffer serious economic consequences if they do not seek cover in a multilateral forum International rhetorical pressure while in many instances are easy for China’s leaders to dismiss carries a reputational impact China perceives itself as a global moral pole and its leaders seek approval for their environmental policies The Chinese promote their efforts in solar panel installation for hot water heating They highlight their re-forestation projects but do not want to be held accountable for cutting down forests in the Russian Far East Burma Laos Cambodia and Indonesia They show their commitment to becoming a world leader in building electric cars but do not want to be criticized for erecting polluting coal power plants while choosing not to lower emissions by using available technologies They see themselves as a late-comer to the oil business with their need to meet China’s energy crisis by buying oil from countries such as Burma Iran Sudan and Angola yet are demonized for acting in the sake of survival Countries may impose more concrete forms of pressure on China such as trade sanctions to push the country towards compliance with climate change mitigation measures Although the standard model for trade negotiations is to exclude these types of externalities climate change affects the trading system in a number of ways such as the cost of production WTO rules reduce the utility of trade sanctions as a lever to push climate change mitigation but some options may include a ten 10 percent cost premium for carbon or the inclusion of climate change impact statements in all bilateral trade interactions 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Tariffs also could be levied on emissions-intensive industries The specific domestic context associated with such tariffs would need to be considered such as a US tariff on Chinese steel production Big steel mills such as Baoshan Steel operate through set-price contracts which would be insulated from a new tariff conversely smaller mills which have to buy on the spot market would be affected As a result with a tariff in place Baoshan Steel would surpass its domestic competitors Unintended consequences of this sort could render an ill-considered tariff counterproductive US Diplomatic Approaches The US Government might use a number of approaches to effectively engage and convince China on climate change mitigation It might be more fruitful to package these as part of a larger deal on improved US-China relations rather than focusing exclusively on climate change In addition several of these approaches depend on the US Government taking China’s interests and perspectives more firmly into account Increased sensitivity on Washington’s part will not persuade Beijing to believe that the United States is concerned with China’s interests On the other hand if Washington projects that it understands China’s position it is in a better posture to advocate climate change mitigation as a win win scenario Proactive Confidence Building Measures China’s attitude toward the United States is one of deep distrust The Chinese polity is suspicious that the US will undermine Chinese growth and undercut Chinese exports which is seen by the Chinese Government as crucial for job creation and regime stability Chinese leaders’ suspicion is reinforced by such cases as the US Congress blocking the legal purchase by a Chinese State Owned Enterprise SOE of American oil assets in Asia China’s mistrust of US government motives is a major roadblock to arriving at a climate change agreement An effective climate change mitigation agreement between China and the United States would incorporate substantial compliance verification and trust-building mechanisms akin to the Cold War-era confidence building measures between the United States and Soviet Union In part this could be accomplished through technical means such as a system of regularized exchanges of inspections technical monitoring and remote sensing verification by over-flights or space-based platforms Space-based platforms are also technically important for monitoring climate change and China could be given shared access to such data Such increases in mutual transparency would obviously be highly sensitive Each country would most likely have to accept sensors and inspectors on its territory that would provide visibility into critical elements of its economy such as power generation In addition the United States could be proactive in instituting emissions cuts and other climate change mitigation measures This would concretely demonstrate US sincerity particularly if taking action first placed the United States at a competitive disadvantage Although this approach could convince China to reciprocate the United States should be mindful that what China would offer in return is politically acceptable in Beijing China is not likely to take action that would significantly constrain its growth in return for the United States taking the first Sensitivity to China’s Development Goals Although neither China nor the United States will compromise growth for climate change mitigation there is room to develop common ground China’s development goals are not as divergent from climate change mitigation goals as was the case a few years ago China’s plan to shift from an export-led heavy industrial development model to one based on services and domestic consumption will reduce emissions and provide 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views opportunities for sustainable practices and other climate change mitigation measures China’s projected new growth model is fairly constructive from an energy and climate standpoint China’s views on climate change are conditioned by where China wants to be in 5 or 10 years not so much where it is now The US Government’s assumption that present-day conditions are a baseline for action is not compatible with China’s development plans An understanding of China’s planned trajectory will prevent the United States from over-compensating China for changes in behavior Framing the debate in terms of carbon emissions is not optimal in terms of receiving Chinese policy buy-in Even if emission controls succeed in the long term Chinese emissions will grow considerably in the next decade In the near-term China can do little to address emissions while at the same time maintaining its growth so emissions-based arguments are perceived by Beijing as unfair persecution China does not feel it bears equal responsibility for emissions with the developed countries China was responsible for eight percent of emissions in the last century while the United States was responsible for 30 percent In addition some of the emissions control measures being advocated such as carbon collection and storage cannot be proven and have no economic co-benefits possibly even worsening energy security Greater emphasis on energy efficiency measures offers a pathway for China to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth and would make the emissions reduction debate more palatable in Beijing China wishes to avoid being singled out as the world’s largest source of greenhouse gasses and the origin of most of the world’s most recent carbon emissions Chinese leaders do not want to be exposed for lacking the state institutions needed to deal with climate change Losing face on such issues is not likely to put China in a receptive frame of mind Technology Transfers and Scientific Cooperation Chinese research and development R D and industrial development policies are increasingly focused on energy and environmental issues The prospects of China building a more synthetic environment in response to climate change offers interesting possibilities for international cooperation in directing the project toward a relatively less energy and resource intensive trajectory The expanding capabilities of China’s R D system will likely establish it as a leader in new climate change mitigation technologies in the longer term In the near term it will need to acquire technology overseas During negotiations for improved international cooperation on climate change China is likely to press its case for the industrialized countries to be more forthcoming with technology and assistance While roadblocks such as dual-use technology export provisions make technology transfers at the government level unlikely much of the sharing of energy saving technology will occur through commercial channels Opportunities for mutually beneficial scientific and technological cooperation between China and other countries in the world undoubtedly will arise The United States and other developed countries have the technology but China has the low cost manufacturing capability that will be necessary to produce green technology en masse A case can be made for a cooperative approach where an American company provides designs to be produced by a Chinese company and sold to Bangladesh Climate change mitigation can be sold to China as a new green export industry The opportunity to participate in green technology rollout gives China a substantial profit incentive to come to a climate change mitigation agreement This will have to be weighed against the commercialization of technologies that might provide the most impact if provided to poor recipients as aid 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Building Bridges The panelists observed the United States should make a major effort to build cooperative academic professional business and government links with Chinese counterparts involved in climate change-related activity at all levels The best channels through which to build common understanding between US and Chinese leadership are to cultivate links with a broad spectrum of actors within the Chinese state and society Their views will percolate up to the leadership who will far more readily accept ideas coming from Chinese subordinates and advisors than from US negotiators Attention at the elite level in China is a scarce resource and the more avenues the US government employs to send its message to China’s leadership the better its chances of being assimilated Engaging with officials and academics particularly in China’s robust government-funded think tank sector would facilitate dissemination of American technical and scientific perspectives on the impacts of climate change and the optimal solutions As part of this engagement it would be worthwhile to pay attention to the terms of the evolving Chinese discourse on “Scientific Development ” Relevant US Congressional committees should be encouraged to link with the Environment and Natural Resources Protection Committee of China’s National People’s Congress Additionally panelists recommended the Executive Branch seek contacts with members of China’s State Councils’ Inter-Agency Joint Meetings on Environment with the Leadership Group on Climate Change which is chaired by the Prime Minister and with the Metallurgy Ministry and the Energy Ministry which along with the State Planning Commission tend to be allied with energy and heavy industry interests who oppose environmental action Panelists observed that US mayors that are actively involved in environmental issues should engage in partnership with sister cities in China that face serious pollution issues Bearing in mind that leadership succession is determined far in advance in China’s political system engaging directly with China’s heir could be fruitful although this would be a very sensitive move in terms of his domestic position with the other regime leadership and should therefore be handled privately and discreetly This broad-based engagement could also include military-to-military ties Despite periodic tense incidences the United States Department of Defense has constructively looked for ways to work with the Chinese Encouraging communication reduces the risk of an inadvertent conflict as in the recent cooperation against Somali piracy Climate change-related humanitarian missions present collaborative opportunities Humanitarian response to climate change is one of the best examples of a recurrent discrete problem on which the United States and Chinese armed forces can work well together For example the People’s Liberation Army Navy PLAN and the US Navy could jointly respond to a severe storm flood or drought in Southeast Asia China’s economic and military growth means that it will increasingly have the wherewithal to contribute significantly in such instances According to the panel the United States should be careful to keep engagement with elements of civil society on climate change issues transparent to the Chinese Government There may be particular sensitivity to American approaches to Chinese NGOs To preserve the freedom of action and effectiveness of Chinese NGO partners they should only be contacted by US NGOs not the US Government and then only with the awareness of the Chinese Government Such precautions need not apply across the board but keeping a respectful degree of distance may ease some of China’s inherent suspicion of American meddling in its domestic affairs Sensitivity to Domestic Constituencies Despite the superficially monolithic qualities of China’s party-state China’s international actions do not always reflect its overall national interests 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Actors such as major corporations—including state-owned enterprises—and well-connected families have shown the capacity to successfully hijack state policy for their own profit China’s oil involvement with the controversial regime in Sudan is a prime example Even when faced with considerable international pressure and awareness that China was not receiving commensurate benefits from Sudanese oil the party-state proved unable or unwilling to change its policies International pressure on climate change issues could run into similar roadblocks if powerful domestic interests in China stand to lose out even if compliance is in China’s overall interests Panelists observed the domestic constituencies need to be taken into account when the United States engages with China and vice versa Even in China’s opaque authoritarian system climate change mitigation proposals will have to survive an extensive ratification process Attention to the actors and institutions that will be involved in that process would help tailor negotiations to produce proposals with optimal chances of receiving approval The US can encourage cooperation and build confidence by explaining the need for China’s assistance in selling an agreement to the American people For example if China would be willing to agree to limits on steel and coal it would be easier to pass an agreement in the United States In return for China’s assistance the US administration could offer to help the Chinese leadership sell the agreement to other constituencies within the party state This reinforces the need for China and the US to view each other’s constituencies as their own Multilateral Discussions A multilateral approach may be the best avenue for bilateral cooperation between Beijing and Washington While on some level China’s leadership may prefer a “G-2” approach to bilateral cooperation with the United States as proof that China is also a superpower on balance China is not comfortable dealing with the United States bilaterally China perceives the US has ulterior motives and aims to subvert China’s authoritarian power and re-establish the United States’ global presence as the world’s indispensable power Alternatively China prefers to have third-parties present even if the negotiation is de facto bilateral The presence of a third party in negotiations is more important than the third party’s particular identity China would be more comfortable if any major autonomous actor was included in the discussions such as Japan or South Korea The Chinese particularly favor the other BRIC countries Brazil Russia and India Larger multilateral forums where China will feel it has allies and regional groupings such as ASEAN or the EU would also be suitable The US could cooperate with the EU in its Clean Development Mechanism projects with China on emissions controls Cooperative efforts are also possible via broader international bodies such as the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank In sum almost any forum or multilateral discussion where Beijing would feel less threatened by the weight of the United States would produce better results than strictly bilateral discussions The Copenhagen Negotiations Taking into account China’s perspective the Copenhagen negotiations will most likely result in an agreement expecting the large emerging economies to make commitments—automobile standards technical improvements in particular industries—that lay the groundwork necessary to put in place future mitigation measures without harming their economic growth In lieu of emission caps for China—which no one really expects—a more reasonable alternative would be to develop an external international framework under a post-Kyoto agreement that would incentivize China moving away from emissions-intensive industries while compensating 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views economically in other ways Such a framework would allow China to comply with an international climate agreement while still fulfilling its macroeconomic goals Take India Into Account Panelists recommended the US Government negotiating position take into account the unstable and complex triangular relationship between the United States China and India Effective climate change mitigation as well as US strategic interests require careful management of relations with both of these rising Asian giants India and China are long-term strategic competitors including climate change-related issues such as access to the Himalayan water Either country would perceive a bilateral American approach to the other as a major slight and an indicator of the United States’ long-term strategic intentions On the other hand India and China have parallel positions vis-à-vis the international climate change negotiations Both support per capita approaches to measuring emissions stress the importance of maintaining growth and believe that developed countries must bear the lion’s share of climate change mitigation measures They are likely to diverge on the climate issue as China’s growth brings its emissions profile more into line with the developed countries and as climatic disputes between the two powers become more salient An effective agreement at Copenhagen will require the assent of both India and China Avoid Binary Distinctions To further facilitate Chinese Government cooperation panelists further recommended the US avoid the “us versus them” binary term China’s ambiguous status relative to the developing and developed countries does not lend itself to binary categorization Leading Chinese economist Hu Angang proposed in April 2009 that the binary “developed” and “developing” categories used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change FCCC be replaced at Copenhagen by four categories along a spectrum based on the Human Development Index Similarly Chinese leaders do not imagine the Chinese state as a flawed authoritarian regime competing with a democratic United States Ruling groups in Beijing do not identify with authoritarian regimes in Moscow Pyongyang or Rangoon Instead they see China as unique—a success such as the world has never known According to the panelists their focus should be on shared yet differentiated responsibilities to the planet with China recognized as one of the global leaders in solving the world’s problems 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Russia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2009-16 September 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we have adopted a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For Russia the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report Russia Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-04 April 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determines if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for Russia • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipate impact on US national security In April of 2009 a group of regional experts convened to explore the sociopolitical challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Russia through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists economists and political scientists While the targeted time frame of the analysis was out to 2030 the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate This work is being delivered under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the CIA’s Office of the Chief Scientists 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Russia held on May 18 2009 brought together a panel of Russia experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Russia from a social political and economic perspective The panelists concluded that Russia is reaching a point where serious deterioration of its physical and human capital is a major obstacle to sustainable economic growth and Russia’s capacity to adapt and protect its people will be tested out to 2030 Climate change will add additional stress to energy and transportation infrastructure burdens However given Russia’s high overall state capacity and the mixed or comparatively tolerable nature of most anticipated climate change impacts over the next twenty years climate change is unlikely to lead to a general failure of the Russian state Energy is the most important determinant of Russia’s economic future and state capacity and climate change will have significant direct and indirect impacts on the energy sector • Russia’s economy is vulnerable to the uncertain effects of climate change and international climate change mitigation policies that may reduce world oil and gas prices • Russia will need to make massive investments in its oil and gas infrastructure including upgrades to existing infrastructure and development of new resources Climate change will add to the cost and technical difficulty of these projects • Climate change-induced effects such as permafrost melting will pose a serious threat to Russia’s pipelines and other aging energy and transportation infrastructure which is already in need of replacement Russia has attributes that provide it with a greater capacity to respond to the negative effects of climate change than some industrialized countries and most underdeveloped ones The state has robust capacities in areas such as analysis and forecasting and emergency response Russia retains even if aging significant Soviet-era industrial infrastructure The population is accustomed to privation and has developed informal networks to address shortfalls in government-provided services and resources Demand for oil and gas in Asia will keep Russia’s energy revenues and therefore state resources at high levels through 2030 Russia nevertheless faces limitations that may inhibit an effective response to climate change • Centralization of power has diminished the capacities of local and regional governments the normal first responders to climate change-induced challenges • The state prioritizes development and security with little regard for environmental issues and a significant proportion of the leadership voices the view that a warming climate is a net benefit for Russia Energy infrastructure demands will divert resources away from climate change adaptation and mitigation 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Civil society—the ability for citizens to mobilize through NGOs and interest groups—is underdeveloped and civil responses to climate change such as ecological movements face state repression The considerable variation in the negative effects of climate change across the vast Russian territory also will challenge the central government’s ability to respond While climate modeling cannot reliably identify the specific effects of climate change at a local level existing data provides insights into climatic challenges that may become most prominent in Russia’s different regions • Melting of the Arctic permafrost threatens to undermine urban industrial and transportation infrastructure across northern Russia and its primary agricultural regions may face severe stress from water shortages temperature increases and shifts in crop zones • Russia will face major internal and cross-border migration mainly into its cities which may increase ethnic tensions Conversely the expected decline in the working-age population may reduce competition for employment and resources Russia will also face climate change-induced challenges originating outside its borders as climate change will increase competition for resources and population pressures along Russia’s periphery particularly in Central and East Asia and the Caucasus Climatic pressures may drive migration into Russia and the influx of migrants could stimulate xenophobia and ethnic violence Despite the many challenges climate change will generate a number of benefits in some parts of Russia • Russia will have more water overall which benefits hydroelectric potential irrigation and urban water supply • Warming will reduce energy demand for heating and allow agriculture and settlement in currently inhospitable northern areas of Russia • Melting of the Arctic ice pack will open shipping routes along Russia’s northern coast and allow access to previously inaccessible Arctic energy resources At Copenhagen Moscow’s probable overarching strategy will be to leave the contentious negotiations to the United States China India and the European Union Moscow will look to take full advantage of the United States’ interest in brokering deals with India and China and will take every opportunity to extract favorable concessions Moscow may try to position itself as an important swing player and broker between the West and the developing world 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Background and Introduction 7 Social Political and Economic Challenges 9 Regional Challenges Overall Economic Challenges Energy Challenges Challenges to Transportation Infrastructure Agricultural Challenges Urban Challenges Demographic Challenges Ecological Challenges Political Challenges Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Civil Society Rural Responses Urban Responses Ethnic Minority Groups Internal Migration 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 State Responses Climate Change Mitigation Policies State Priorities State Capacity “Level” of Response State Economic Policies Energy Policies Water Policies Transportation Infrastructure 5 This paper does not represent US Government views 20 21 22 24 26 26 28 29 This paper does not represent US Government views Regional Implications Regional Energy Issues The Arctic Ocean Fishing Conflicts Cross-Border Migration Water Disputes Peripheral Instability Foreign Policy Implications Russia’s Global Engagement Russia’s Global Energy Policy Russia’s Foreign Policy Perspectives on Climate Change US Engagement with Russia on Climate Change The Copenhagen Negotiations 6 This paper does not represent US Government views 29 29 30 32 32 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 This paper does not represent US Government views Background and Introduction1 The Russian Federation is already experiencing the impacts of climate change in the form of milder winters melting permafrost changing precipitation patterns the spread of disease and increased incidence of drought flooding and other extreme weather events Many of these observed climate impacts are having concrete negative effects on Russians’ quality of life By 2030 Russia will start to feel the impacts of climate change in relation to both water and food supply Nonetheless a significant proportion of the country’s senior leaders continue to voice the view that a warming climate is a net benefit for Russia Although Russia has a number of attributes that provide a greater capacity for resilience2 in response to the negative effects of climate change than some other industrialized countries and most developing countries as the impacts of the change continue and intensify over the coming years Russia’s capacity to adapt and protect its people will be severely tested The most important impacts of climate change in Russia will likely include the following • Energy A warming climate holds the possibility of milder and shorter heating seasons which in turn may lead to reduced energy demand Increased water availability—particularly along those Siberian rivers that are used for hydroelectric power—should result in increased power production in certain parts of the country On the other hand existing and future energy infrastructure for the all-important petroleum industry will experience more pronounced challenges including structural subsidence risks associated with river crossings and construction difficulties as permafrost thaws earlier and deeper impeding the construction of vital new production areas These challenges have the potential for a material negative impact on the single greatest source of revenue to the Russian state—the oil and gas industry • Water Many parts of Russia’s immense territory will experience increases in the availability of water including much of Siberia the Far North and northwestern Russia This change will bring certain positive impacts including for hydroelectricity generation Nevertheless managing the increased flows will pose other problems especially when these increases coincide with extreme weather events such as downpours or springtime ice-clogged floods In addition increasing water shortages are predicted for southern parts of European Russia areas that already experience significant socioeconomic and sociopolitical stress Moreover a number of densely populated Russian regions that are already subject to water shortages are expected to face even more pronounced difficulties in decades to come • Agriculture As growing seasons become longer and precipitation patterns change it will become possible to cultivate northern lands that previously were too cold for agricultural purposes It may also become possible to raise new crops and new crop 1 This section is extracted from the Executive Summary of the Phase I report see Scope Note Russia Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-04 April 2009 Some of the judgments in this report Phase II may differ from the Phase I report 2 See the Phase I report p 35 for a discussion of adaptation and resilience capacity 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views varieties A changing climate may nevertheless prove inhospitable to expanded agriculture as whether longer growing seasons and warmer agricultural lands will result in increased yields of new or existing crops remains to be seen Moreover agriculture will become more reliant on irrigation especially in the southern parts of European Russia pesticides and herbicides and more vulnerable to droughts and other extreme weather • Migration Russia which is already the top choice for immigrants after the United States is likely to experience greater migration pressure from Central Asia the Caucasus countries Mongolia and northeastern China 3 The latter areas are expected to experience increased water shortages and resulting economic stress In addition internal migration pressures may occur as residents of Russia’s many northern cities face increasing economic and climate-related challenges • Accentuation of existing socioeconomic and sociopolitical stresses Russia is better equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change than many of its neighbors Nonetheless by 2030 climate change appears likely to accentuate some of the stresses that currently plague Russia Some of the most affected regions already feature attenuated and unsettled socioeconomic and sociopolitical situations and most of the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves in smaller cities and in the Russian countryside For example the long-turbulent North Caucasus region will be drier hotter and less prosperous than it is today Primorskiy Kray and the Russian Far East which have long struggled to develop peacefully next to China appear likely to experience even greater migration pressures which could exacerbate longstanding cross-border tensions 3 Data as of 2005 see Migration Policy Institute http www migrationinformation org DataHub charts 6 1 shtml viewed 23 Sep 2009 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges Regional Challenges Predicting the economic social and political impacts of climate change across the vast territory of Russia is difficult because of the lack of micro-level climate change modeling Affects that may appear moderate when averaged out over such a large area may in fact produce extremely intense problems at the local level that may exert disproportionate destabilizing influence Existing data nonetheless can at least be used to identify those climatic challenges that may potentially become most prominent in Russia’s different regions Northern European Russia The principal climate change-induced challenges facing Russia’s northwest appear to be permafrost melting which threatens to undermine urban industrial and transportation infrastructure and flooding both along the coast because of sea-level rise and along rivers due to increased river flows Major urban centers and ports such as St Petersburg and Murmansk will face significant risks of flooding from extreme weather events Southern European Russia Russia’s traditional “breadbasket” region will face serious agricultural challenges as a result of drying and warming Crop zones may shift and rural communities will face increased stress because of water shortages and possibly increased ethnic tensions Considerable internal migration and migration from Russia’s more severely affected southern neighbors may occur Sea-level rise will be a long-term problem along the Black Sea coast The North Caucasus One of the poorest and most ethnically diverse areas of Russia the North Caucus is expected to become even hotter and drier Already high unemployment rates will most likely grow increasing the region’s volatility and further pressuring internal economic migration to elsewhere in the Russian Federation Siberia The most disruptive climate change impact in Siberia may be the large-scale melting of the permafrost with attendant disruption to infrastructure River basins will face a greater risk of flooding and the region will probably see significant migration from Central Asia The Russian Far East Eastern Siberia and the Far East will become wetter with risks of coastal and river flooding particularly along the Lena River The region may be the target of major Russian energy infrastructure expansion which will be complicated by permafrost melting Migration from Northeastern China will also probably continue creating the possibility of a demographic sea change Overall Economic Challenges The classic factors of economic growth for any country are the quantity and mainly the quality of its physical and human capital and the rate of technological change So far in its transition from central planning to the market post-Soviet Russia has been able to exploit its inheritance of physical and human capital But this Soviet-era legacy is now reaching a point where serious deterioration of Russia’s physical and human capital is a major obstacle to sustainable economic growth It is almost certain that Russia will not 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views be able to solve these economic challenges by 2030 and although it can survive and even prosper in the short to medium term without seriously addressing these challenges by 2030 the costs of managing the annual impact of the physical and human capital deficiencies will be a major burden on Russia’s economy In addition Russia already faces a geographic challenge to its economic cohesiveness If looked at in terms of “effective national territory”—defined as those parts of a state that contribute to the national economy at a level greater than that relative to its population— Russia resembles an archipelago of urban economically dynamic islands amidst an ocean of vast relatively undeveloped geographical space Its effective national territory forms an “economic spine” that supports the rest of the country economically and strategically Moreover the wealth that is largely generated by extractive industries across Russia’s vast territory is concentrated in large state-sponsored monopolies in Moscow Local populations and regional governments receive very little of their industries’ profits and have very little say in corporate decisionmaking This geographic disconnect encourages Russian industries to treat the resource areas they exploit and their inhabitants as disposable It also removes industrialists from the proximate effects and impacts of climate change and gives them little incentive to be responsive in terms of adopting mitigation measures leaving it instead to the under-resourced local governments Energy Challenges Climate change has the potential for a material negative impact on the single-greatest source of revenue to the Russian state—the oil and gas industry In some respects however the effects of change may prove positive such as in reduced energy consumption for heating a major source of energy demand in Russia Increased river flows may boost hydroelectric potential and arctic melting may allow exploitation of previously inaccessible subsea hydrocarbon deposits The energy sector particularly the revenue derived from hydrocarbon exports is the most important factor that will affect Russia’s near mid- and long-term future 4 The market value of Russia’s oil and gas resources—its resource rent—is primarily a function of how much Russia is able to produce and world market prices Oil and gas rents are and will remain a far more important driver of Russian politics economics and foreign policy than climate change Although climate change will directly affect the production and transportation arenas of Russia’s energy sector the effect this will have in turn on resource rents is unclear It does not follow that production levels or rents will fall because the total volume of Russia’s oil and gas rents depends much more on price than on quantity Between 1996 and 2007 the volume of oil produced increased by 63 percent Nevertheless price increases accounted for around 84 percent of total oil rent growth while volume increase accounted for only 16 percent While production levels of oil and gas may slip in the years ahead as a result of climate change-induced impacts on energy infrastructure the key question is how climate change may affect oil and gas prices which have historically been more volatile than production 4 Andrew C Kuchins Alternative Futures of Russia to 2017 Washington DC Center for Strategic and International Studies December 2007 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views levels Presumably global supply of and demand for oil and gas—the fundamental determinants of price—will be affected by climate change although the magnitude and direction of these effects could be quite uncertain In addition the global response to climate change will have a huge but still-indeterminate impact on demand for energy particularly in light of decisions of the major economic powers regarding a move away from fossil fuels Oil and Gas Infrastructure and Development Challenges The bulk of Russia’s energy extraction infrastructure dates back to the Soviet period and therefore Russia was able to unleash tremendous excess capacity—and realize windfall revenues over the past decade—by applying more up-to-date techniques to the inefficient and wasteful legacy infrastructure The gains in efficiency from this so-called “brownfield miracle” have now largely run their course production levels—for example in Western Siberian oil and gas fields—are waning and Russia will need to turn principally to “greenfield” development of new energy sources to keep production up Many of the potential greenfield sources are in remote and exceptionally harsh locations in Russia’s far northern and eastern regions Vast new transportation infrastructure will be needed even to reach these areas let alone transport the extracted energy to customers Oil and gas extraction present roughly equivalent technical challenges and costs and deposits are located in equally difficult geographic regions of Russia Climatic challenges will further complicate this development as permafrost melting and more volatile weather will impede access to and construction of vital new production areas In addition Russia will face huge replacement costs for its Soviet infrastructure on top of the costs associated with new energy development Climate change-induced effects particularly permafrost melting again are likely to add even more to these expenses because the Soviet-era infrastructure was built on the permafrost and designed accordingly—as the permafrost thaws earlier and deeper it will cause structural subsidence and force the replacement of a considerable amount of infrastructure that might otherwise simply have been repaired and updated In contrast the greenfield infrastructure can be designed from the outset to compensate for the altered conditions Climate change may therefore render greenfield development even in remote areas more competitive with brownfield replacement than would otherwise be the case Regardless Russia’s development of the technically and climatically challenging new energy projects and replacement of its existing infrastructure will be the largest capital expenditure projects in the history of the planet Russian sources estimate that developing oil and gas deposits in the Arctic regions will cost $500 billion about the size of Russia’s entire hard currency reserves at their peak in mid-2008 Not surprisingly the current economic downturn has significantly reduced Russia’s enthusiasm for launching these projects in the near term While they have subsequently rebounded oil and gas prices declined nearly threefold since the summer of 2008 dropping well below the $70 per barrel that the Russian Government considered necessary to make Arctic development feasible Challenges to Transportation Infrastructure Climate change is anticipated to cause potentially serious periodic disruptions to Russian transportation and increase the strain on transportation infrastructure As opposed to 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views creeping environmental change in which effects occur slowly over time some climateinduced changes such as flooding in major river basins including St Petersburg more snow in non-European Russia and more frequent mudflows and landslides will present immediate challenges to transportation and may separate Moscow the economic center from the regions and industries that fuel of the national economy Such disruptions to commerce and economic activity may be sporadic and difficult to predict or to prepare for and will necessitate large-scale investments in infrastructure Permafrost melting is a major concern for the maintenance and viability for commodity flows of transportation systems including those that serve the oil and gas pipelines in central and eastern Siberia Because a significant proportion of road and railway networks are constructed on permafrost increased melting could swallow the transportation networks of large expanses of Russia’s territory into a swampy morass for a significant part of the year Russia has a comparatively under-developed road and highway network and is far more dependent on railroads for long-distance transportation than most industrialized countries Beyond the effects of permafrost melting on the rail system increased river flows may threaten the structural integrity of railway bridges Waterborne transport faces mixed impacts from climate change New ports and shipping routes in the Arctic may be offset by increased threats of flooding of existing ports and higher incidence of severe storms Increased river flows may facilitate the use of rivers as transportation arteries particularly in Siberia but also brings increased risks of catastrophic flooding and ice jams Additionally the structures located at thousands of river crossings are unlikely to accommodate increased water levels associated with climate change Agricultural Challenges The future impact of climate change on Russian agriculture is uncertain Warming will lead to longer growing seasons less frequent bitter winters and more northerly areas open to cultivation Expected resulting increases in yields will be at least partially mitigated by other climate change-induced effects such as greater weather variability more frequent severe weather events and the spread of plant diseases and pests into new areas The expected northward migration of planting zones will be a complex process with mixed impacts The climatic conditions suitable for warm-climate crops such as cotton grapes tea citrus and other fruits and vegetables will move northward from Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus into the North Caucasus and Volga regions Depending on the specific crops the northward shift may involve a broadening of the zone of potential cultivation Alternatively it may entail a shift in both northern and southern margins of the planting zone such that current cultivation areas will no longer be able to support historic crops The latter scenario may have catastrophic effects on single-crop dependent agriculture such as in Central Asia The outlook is further complicated by the fact that although climatic bands may shift soil bands such as the Chernozem Black Earth will not If climatic movement pushes crops into areas with unsuitable soil yields may drop significantly and it may no longer be possible to cultivate certain crops at all Although new agricultural areas will open up the areas on which Russia has historically depended and around which its agricultural infrastructure is organized will suffer 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views increased stress Many of the fertile Chernozem agricultural regions of southern European Russia—such as Belgorod Voronezh Kursk Lipetsk Orel and Tambov Oblasts—are expected to experience water shortages and sustaining agriculture here will require increased irrigation and reliance on chemical additives In the longer term Russia faces a need to refocus its agricultural enterprises northward which may entail uprooting an entire region’s socioeconomic system Urban Challenges As migration to urban areas increases climate-induced hardships such as the water shortages anticipated for the Moscow Oblast will affect increasing numbers of people Energy blackouts and brownouts resulting from unreliable or insufficient energy supplies can cause local economies and productivity to grind to a halt Heat waves are likely to lead to increased levels of secondary pollution and public health stress Water treatment in cities could be impaired and waterborne illnesses could rapidly affect an entire city Infrastructure in many Russian cities is already decrepit and inefficient and could be further damaged by climate change-induced effects Although overall climate change effects do not appear likely to create chronic or insurmountable disruptions for Russia’s urban population an increase in extreme weather events—including heat waves storms flooding water shortages or contamination and outbreaks of disease—could threaten cities with sudden local disasters Demographic Challenges Unrelated to climate change but a factor certain to compound the impact of that change are demographic challenges that threaten Russia’s human capital—that combination of the number and age of its citizens their health their education and their location A health crisis threatens productivity a mismatch exists between the types of skills being produced by the educational system and economic needs and mobility problems prevent reallocation of human resources in an effective manner A declining population is another aspect of this demographic challenge The Russian Federation today is a great deal more homogeneous than was the Soviet Union but Russia’s population has been in decline since the end of the Soviet Union The Slavic population had been falling even before that time although this drop was offset by high birth rates in the non-Slavic population As a result the Soviet Union was less than 50 percent Russian by 1989 Today the population is about 80 percent Russian boosted by migration of ethnic Russians from the Former Soviet Republics since 1991 5 The population decline although it has slowed in recent years is primarily the result of a substantially higher mortality rate particularly among working-age males than other countries in Europe Estimates of life expectancy by Russia’s State Statistics Agency Rosstat suggest that after 2008 Russia will see the beginning of a decade-long precipitous decline in working-age population By 2015 that group is projected to decline by 8 million and by 2025 by 18-19 million This decline is more serious when one factors in the high numbers of the population who are incapacitated due to chronic health problems 5 Although Russia hosts nearly 160 ethnic groups the only minorities with over a 1 percent representation in the population are Tatars Ukrainians and Chuvash 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Given the downward demographic dynamics in Russia’s Slavic population increased immigration was already poised to play a greater role in filling Russian labor needs in the first half of the twentieth first century leading to a more diverse nation with higher percentages of Asians and Muslims Increased immigration because of climate changeinduced stress in Central Asia and China can be expected to accelerate these trends The prospects for further ethnic diversification as a result of immigration and disparities in birth rates have revived late Soviet-era fears that ethnic Russians may become a minority in Russia although such fears do not appear to be borne out by the demographic facts Popular conceptions of an internal Muslim demographic time bomb also seem exaggerated There are less than 11 million Muslims in Russia and their birth rates are dropping Traditional Muslim birth rates among the larger Muslim ethnic groups such as Bashkirs and Tatars are not much higher than those among Slavs and birth rates have even declined in the Caucasus Ecological Challenges The effects of climate change will not be limited to human systems Effects such as changes in growing seasons permafrost melting more frequent forest fires and floods and the spread of disease will have broad-based impacts on Russian ecosystems Entire ecosystems may shift into new geographic areas such as the sub-Arctic taiga forest encroaching on more northerly areas previously dominated by tundra In some parts of the North warmer climatic conditions may lead to increased biodiversity On the other hand the stress associated with flora and fauna moving into new areas and competing with native plant and animal life may result in extinctions threaten and more species The impact of climate change on Russia’s vast wilderness ecology is particularly significant in part because many indigenous peoples depend on these ecosystems Natural ecological change will in some cases be worsened by the secondary impact from human actions that are driven by increasing economic and climatic stress Climate change effects such as increasing sea-surface temperatures changes in ocean circulation patterns sea-level rise changes in water levels in lakes and streams and river and coastal silting caused by increased river flows could create problems for fish populations In the Caspian Sea for example an anticipated decrease in water levels is expected to reduce the number of sturgeon an important industry in the region It is not clear how climate change will ultimately affect fishing but preliminary evidence suggests that in some cases fish schools are beginning to move to new waters and in other cases fish stocks are decreasing In addition climate change is likely to exacerbate the threat of disease caused by insects and vermin Milder winters allow pests to thrive in more northerly areas and Russia is already beginning to see an increased incidence of diseases more familiar in warmer regions Political Challenges The sheer size of its territory and wide dispersion of its population have posed a perennial governance challenge for the Russian state The country’s extreme regional social economic and ethnic disparities are difficult to reconcile with the strong tendencies toward centralization of power and authority in Moscow The oil center of Khanty14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Mansiysk in western Siberia for example enjoys a per capita GDP comparable to that in the United States while Vladikavkaz in the Caucasian republic of North Ossetia has a per capita income 30 times smaller Moscow faces a huge political challenge in providing effective governance to cities and regions on both ends of this spectrum and every point in between During the Yeltsin years state authority was diffused among the constituent regional and local levels of government particularly to the ethnically defined republics within the Federation Under Vladimir Putin Moscow reversed this trend and undertook a sweeping recentralization of authority The federal subjects—oblasts republics and krays—were grouped within seven large federal districts with centrally appointed governors Local executives are heavily influenced by Moscow but locally elected Although local parliamentary bodies are technically still elected in practice higher authorities suggest candidates whose election campaigns are state-funded Power trickles down from the Federation level curtailing the influence of budding local-level civil society Further erosions of federal subject authority may occur such as the political restructuring of critical resource areas away from the control of the more sovereign federal subjects such as the ethnic republics This could be undertaken officially through boundary changes or more insidiously by de facto economic relationships The recentralization of authority already has aroused resentment among local actors who have sought to renegotiate their political rights and regain some of sovereignty from Moscow Such federal-local tension may be exacerbated if local authorities find themselves under increased stress because of climate change Given Russia’s geographic extent regional climate change impacts will vary widely and may be best addressed at local and regional levels of government but the state’s tendency toward centralization of authority in Moscow may adversely affect the country’s ability to respond to local climate changeinduced challenges worsening these problems and even causing them to spill over and affect the country more broadly Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Civil Society The legacy of Soviet-era control over political and social activity continues to undercut civil society in Russia and the other former Soviet countries both through lingering social inhibitions and continued state repression Political and social activism has tended to be scrutinized if not outright discouraged by the government As a result few individuals will admit to involvement in a non-government organizations NGOs social organization opposition political party or civic group and most are cynical about what can be achieved through such channels Informal Networks Absent overt civil society mechanisms many Russians have developed alternative informal social networks to deal with day-to-day issues such as commodity shortages which are likely to play a major role in how the public responds to the effects of climate change The black market thrives and Russia is host to a large number of unofficial networks based on clan allegiance ethnic identity and any number of other criteria These networks command a great deal of social power outside of the 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views government but are tolerated as long as they do not infringe upon the state’s domain Indeed it is arguable that these networks actually strengthen the state aided by the networks the Russian people may feel they do not need to mobilize politically Ecological and Environmental Movements Some civil organization nonetheless has occurred related to the environment and the environmental effects of climate change The development of ecological movements particularly in Siberia has been increasing bolstered by the interaction between these movements and indigenous cultural and ethnic preservation movements Such collaboration is likely to increase as Russia feels greater effects from climate change In the Siberian North where initial effects of climate change are being felt indigenous activists are conducting their own environmental measurements because they distrust reports from the regional and central government They have merged “folk knowledge” about climate change with broader scientific reporting and accelerated indigenous people’s concerns As a result a high level of public awareness about climate change effects such as methane outgassing from melted permafrost now exists in this region Public awareness in other parts of Russia is also likely to increase along with global awareness particularly with the advent of more precise and reliable climate change measurements Local mobilization around environmental issues already has managed to convince Moscow to change course in some instances as happened in the case of a pipeline proposed for the Lake Baikal area More commonly even when local and indigenous responses exceed what Moscow had expected as in the case of a local referendum against a planned hydroelectric dam on the Lower Tunguska in Krasnoyarsk Kray broader economic considerations remain the deciding factor Even if local mobilization against mega-infrastructure projects such as dams and pipelines intensifies it is not likely to rise to a level that seriously challenges state security or deters decisionmakers from pursuing national-level plans they perceive to be in Russia’s overall interest Rural Responses In general Russia’s rural areas will bear the worst strains from climate change including the immediate effects on agricultural productivity interrupted connectivity to cities and sources of non-local commodities and energy as well as health impacts of increased bogs floods disease vectors altered temperature patterns and food quality and supply The ability of rural populations to cope will depend on several factors including the health of the local economy the ongoing toxic Soviet environmental legacy and the degree of new climate change related stresses However rural residents may be more likely than then urban residents to have back up food supplies traditional ways of dealing with sickness and strong social networks The West and South In considering how the Russian countryside will respond to climate change it is important to distinguish between agricultural and non-agricultural rural populations Russian agriculture—and its rural population—is concentrated in southern and central European Russia from the Black Earth of the Ukraine to the southern Urals Conditions in these areas vary in southern Russia the rural areas are more vibrant with agricultural towns of 10 000-100 000 inhabitants who benefit from a 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views favorable climate The more northerly agricultural areas in contrast feature small 19thcentury-style farms with low productivity and elderly populations These two markedly different rural agricultural models are likely to have quite different responses to climate change Elderly rural dwellers are unlikely to move or generate conflict in the face of climatic stress nor are state resources likely to be directed toward maintaining marginally productive agricultural areas This way of life is already dying out and climate change may simply accelerate the process The response in the more intensive agricultural areas of the south is likely to be far more dynamic Migration to the cities is likely to increase as are demands for aid from the state particularly in the area of expanding irrigation infrastructure and conflict over water and other resources may become commonplace The East and North The majority of Russia’s territory particularly in Siberia and the Far East is a demographic and agricultural desert and will have a very different experience of climate change than the west and south Russia’s northern lands are a zone of poverty soaring unemployment industrial over-extension and instability The small and widely separated population is overwhelmingly urban and the tiny rural population— primarily indigenous peoples—is engaged in herding hunting fishing and resource extraction not agriculture The rural inhabitants of Siberia and northern European Russia have already begun to experience climate change-induced pressures resulting in a loss of traditional means of subsistence and forcing many to move to increasingly larger towns and villages however any mass migration appears unlikely given the mixed impact climate change may have in these areas Moreover although shifts in traditional practices and ways of life will be traumatic such shifts are already under way as a result of resource development and northern populations already resilient to climatic challenges are already responding to the leading edge of climate change Prospects for Rural Unrest Historically stress on rural areas was a major source of destabilizing political unrest in Russia but severe challenges to the state from the countryside are no longer plausible in post-Soviet urbanized industrial Russia Rather as noted previously it is the lack of federal interest in or attention to their plight may be the most challenging aspect of rural society’s response to climate change Urban Responses Nearly three-quarters of Russia’s population is urban In some cities the overall effect of climate change may be only a moderation of the harsh weather perhaps a welcome change for Russian urbanites Given gradual climatic shifts Russia is likely to have the resources to adapt its urban infrastructures to new conditions Nonetheless urban dwellers may face disruptions to transportation food and water distribution electricity heating and air conditioning waste removal and treatment and public health Such effects perhaps severe in isolated cases may be felt primarily by the very young the very old those with compromised immune systems and those residing in hospitals or other institutions Russians have low expectations regarding their government but climate change-induced challenges may shed more light on existing deficiencies and lead urbanites to demand more from their local and central government 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Prospects for Urban Unrest Russia’s more recent historical experience suggests that the greatest danger from political unrest comes from the major cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg where the concentration of population and economic and political power means that a serious climatic event there could have major repercussions for the stability of Russia as a whole The most serious threat may be a major flooding event in St Petersburg A truly catastrophic event of this magnitude in which federal and regional officials and agencies demonstrate tragic incompetence would be a massive blow for the state to absorb Moscow is less threatened than St Petersburg and other major cities Owing to its privileged status authorities will ensure the capital receives the resources it needs to cope Ethnic Minority Groups Climate change may have a particularly significant impact on Russia’s diverse ethnic minorities depending on where they reside Climatic shifts may disrupt traditional ways of life among groups—who are already under economic pressure—and in some cases force them to migrate and be subsumed within the larger Russian population and subjected to cultural dislocation discrimination and even violence Climate change may spark increased resource competition among co-located ethnic groups Groups living in isolated areas may suffer disproportionately from disruptions to the transportation network Moreover climatic stress can be a key element inter-ethnic tensions devolving into violent conflict For example in northeastern Kenya in early 2009 drought and resulting crop failures sparked increased tribal clashes over water and pasture lands high food prices and the decimation of goats and sheep by a viral disease Many minority groups in Russia live at a subsistence level in marginal areas where fairly minor climatic shifts could generate considerable local stress and resource conflicts that might play themselves out along ethnic lines The North Caucasus The North Caucus region—the most ethnically heterogeneous region in the world and the site of numerous recent inter-ethnic or ethno-nationalist conflicts—often is cited as having the most potential for ethnic conflict as the result of climate change As noted previously while the region is projected to bear the brunt of climate change-induced drying and warming trends it is one of Russia’s poorest and least-prepared areas to cope However when the North Caucasus is considered in aggregate the region is extensive and expected climatic impacts in particular areas do not appear to correlate with existing ethnic fault-lines Indeed the regions expected to bear the brunt of water shortages and agricultural disruptions—the steppe and the Black Earth—do not have heterogeneous populations or unstable political situations while areas characterized by social and political tensions—from Kabardino-Balkaria to Dagestan—appear more likely to experience agriculturally friendly trends such as increased water availability more mild winters and warmer weather The North Caucus will certainly remain an ethnically charged region but climate-induced conflict does not appear likely Siberian Indigenous Peoples Indigenous peoples have shown a prescient grasp of the profound impacts climate change may have on their native regions Siberians never needed scientists to tell them that their food chains were more fragile than other areas 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views farther south The lasting effects of marks from all-terrain vehicles and the easy destruction of lichen the main food source for reindeer that rejuvenates in multi-year cycles or not at all alerted them early after Russian mining and energy developers entered their territories They have already seen and felt the loss of their hunting fishing cattle horse and reindeer breeding territories in numerous places at increasingly alarming rates With projected climate changes they fear increased forest fires oil pipeline fractures and the return of long submerged illnesses—anthrax for animals small pox for humans Indigenous peoples who believe in the delicate interrelationship of humans to nature are already voicing their concerns over environmental degradation and climate change and tend to conceptualize climate change as nature taking revenge for human transgressions These beliefs have manifested themselves in increasing interest in environmental issues and interaction with ecological groups To the extent that indigenous groups mobilize politically they may become useful political levers for other interest groups In the 1990s ethnic Russian interest groups used indigenous mobilization as a way to leverage support for their own interests In such situations minority groups could become levers that challenge state authority even if their intrinsic political clout is minimal Internal Migration The Russian Government’s recently published climate change doctrine highlighted internal migration as a key concern arising from climate change Russia already faces a great deal of economically driven internal migration with movement from the East into the West and from rural to urban areas Climate change will also “pull” migration into more northerly areas the likely opening of new oil and gas fields in the north and east and the massive accompanying infrastructure projects will draw labor into previously sparsely-populated areas of Russia as will the potential opening of Arctic shipping routes Although large-scale shifts in population will no doubt cause social and economic strains voluntary migration in response to labor demand is likely to be considerably less destabilizing than involuntary movement of refugees out of stricken areas However large-scale sudden or protracted internal migration because of climate change could create local distortions in the labor market increasing competition frustration and racial violence The urban metropolises of Moscow and St Petersburg are already experiencing tensions and violence directed against Caucasian migrants and immigrants of Central Asian descent Indeed anti-immigrant hostility and xenophobia are deeply rooted and widespread on the streets of Russia and a growing number of violent neo-Nazi and others groups already blame minorities and immigrants for a host of economic and social problems The most destabilizing type of internal migration could be the displacement of agricultural populations into previously homogeneous rural areas and towns where they will compete for resources with established groups State Responses 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views While the Russian state will need to expend considerable effort to address climate change -induced challenges historically it has successfully tackled large-scale challenges under harsh conditions Given Russia’s high overall state capacity and the mixed or comparatively tolerable nature of most anticipated climate change impacts over the next twenty years climate change is unlikely to lead to a general failure of the Russian state The Russian political elite has historically viewed climate change as a net positive for Russia anticipating that warming will alleviate some of the challenges associated with the country’s cold climate This attitude is now changing some Russian leaders now realize the possibility that climate change may have a number of deleterious social economic and political effects on Russia an awareness that is likely to lead to measures to alleviate some of the most dramatic impacts Climate change is likely to generate complications and challenges for the state in two principal areas First the differential impact of climate change across the Federation will complicate centralized governance and policymaking in Moscow Russian authorities already face considerable challenges in managing a vast federal state with extreme regional socioeconomic disparities and considerable ethnic diversity The addition of differing and in some cases opposing climatic shifts and consequent movement of people and economic activity will only make the Federation more difficult to govern Second as previously noted climate change will affect how the Russian state and its largely state-sponsored energy industries implement the massive infrastructure projects and investments needed for the continued development and solvency of the critical Russian oil and gas sector These projects will have to be undertaken regardless of climate change but climatic impacts may render the process more expensive and technically challenging Climate Change Mitigation Policies In May 2009 in preparation for the Copenhagen Climate Conference later this year Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology unveiled a climate doctrine that outlines the country’s response to climate change The doctrine prepared without public scrutiny came as a surprise particularly because of the change in tone among Russian officials that it reflects rather than emphasizing the benefits of milder winters the opening of the Arctic coast and longer growing seasons the doctrine warns of serious climate-induced challenges and outlines adaptive measures According to the Minister for Natural Resources and Ecology Yuri Trutnev Russia will need to take a strategic long-term approach to adapt to climate change looking at least to 2030 and as far as 2050 in some sectors The climate doctrine is intended to provide guidelines for planning and instituting that policy approach and calls for a range of initiatives • Increased research in order to acquire more precise and reliable data on climate change Russia should establish a climate change oversight body and potentially a national center for climate studies • Expanded and updated state environmental regulation and legislation to bring Russia into line with international norms on climate change more stringent regulation of 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views industrial carbon and emissions measures to stimulate responsible resource use and efficiency and better natural resource management • Structural change in Russia’s economy aimed at increasing the resilience of key economic sectors such as agriculture transport and energy to include a redistribution of resources and economic activity to meet shifts caused by climate change • Development of alternative energy sources to help meet domestic energy needs as well as increased energy efficiency an initiative in which Russia had not previously shown much interest • Participation in international climate change initiatives Although the doctrine reflects some new sensitivity on the part of the Russian Government to potential adverse consequences of climate change it is not clear if the policies articulated in the doctrine go beyond rhetoric in part because the Moscow’s support for the initiatives has to date been vague In addition critics have charged that the doctrine does not go far enough in addressing the root causes of climate change and rather focuses on alleviating the effects State Priorities Except in wartime few states have historically prioritized state security in as stark terms as Russia The Russian Federation and its Soviet precursor have been willing to sacrifice progress in virtually every social economic and technological area in order to focus on security and the military Even today with an emphasis on energy export-led economics state security remains the ultimate priority of Russia’s decisionmaking elite Russia’s approach to state security is characterized by caution and paranoia Having weathered a huge economic and political crisis in the 1990s Russian leaders are very conservative and place a premium on precautionary measures Moscow feels a sense of vulnerability because of its relative demographic and geopolitical decline vis-à-vis both its longstanding rivals and new rising powers As a result Russian planners and decisionmakers typically focus on worst case scenarios and remain largely unwilling to depend on other countries for food energy or physical security A state whose primary goal is security will respond quite differently to climate change effects than one oriented toward economic efficiency The goal of efficiency dictates policies such as competition pluralism entrepreneurial independence and participation in the global division of labor An emphasis on security in contrast leads to excessive control a high degree of redundancy lack of specialization resistance to interdependence and openness and a focus on building up reserves of various kinds Climate changerelated tradeoffs will be framed in terms of their net effect on state resilience more so than their economic impact Climate change-induced challenges are likely to necessitate a broad range of state interventions including mega-infrastructure projects and local-level responses to discrete incidents To insure that these challenges do not rise to levels that threaten security the state must bolster its overall capacity to respond and adapt Therefore if expenditures are seen as preserving state power and stability the Russian state may be willing to spend more on climate change mitigation than a growth-oriented state Although Russia favors 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views efficiency and global cooperation in responding to climate change Russian leaders preferring autarkic solutions will most likely not allow the country to be placed in a dependent position Policy Decisionmaking The current Russian leadership has tended strongly toward a pragmatic approach to policymaking aimed at keeping Moscow’s options open until the outcome is fairly certain The Russian Federation is much less bureaucratic than the Soviet Union decisionmaking is more personal and less institutionalized planning is less complex and deliberative and the policymaking process is opaque and in many cases a formal process may not exist Another critical feature of decisionmaking in Russia is the conflation of Kremlin officialdom and the corporate elite to the point that the distinction between state policy and corporate policy is often arbitrary Overall the Russian state leadership expends much less effort to monopolize decisionmaking than was the case in Soviet era primarily stepping in if an issue is deemed a national security threat and or requires a major state initiative to address it In such cases both the Soviet and post-Soviet regimes have shown a capacity to rapidly come to decisions and act on them which may facilitate the rapid adoption and implementation of major initiatives to deal with climate change related incidents But such actions will tend to be reactionary and done with an abbreviated policy formulation process that has in the past led to deeply ill-considered policies with disastrous long-term side effects State Capacity Russia faces a very complex planning prioritization and implementation challenge regarding its responses to climate change Nevertheless heavily industrialized and welleducated with an outsized national security establishment the Russian state already has a robust capacity to respond to climate change which could be boosted even more with investments over the coming years Analysis Forecasting Russia has a strong scientific establishment and its research institutes and universities provide ample expertise and infrastructure with which to gather data on climate change analyze it and produce forecasts The lead agency involved in such efforts is the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roshydromet the Russian equivalent of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Emergency Response Russian capabilities in emergency response and disaster consequence management are relatively robust The lead agency for emergency response is the Ministry for Affairs of Civil Defense Emergency Situations and Disaster Relief— better known as the Ministry of Emergency Situations or the Emergency Control Ministry EMERCOM —the Russian equivalent of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA EMERCOM has a reputation as a dynamic and effective agency and has capabilities to respond to a wide variety of climatic incidents throughout the Federation including forest fires floods and storms Acting through the Prime Minister’s office EMERCOM can draw on assistance from the Ministry of Defense and Ministry of the Interior as well as assistance from foreign and international disaster response agencies 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Environmental Protection In contrast to emergency response environmental planning and prevention are weak Environmental oversight within the Russian state bureaucracy is housed in the Ministries of Regional Development and of Natural Resources and Ecology both of which are primarily charged with facilitating economic development and resource extraction These ministries collaborate with the increasingly compliant non-elected republic and regional governments This creates a conflict of interest situation in which development goals supersede environmental concerns and ecological oversight is pro forma or corrupted Problems include data collection secrecy and especially a lack of systematic efforts to curtail or repair environmental harm with sustainable development State Resources As mentioned earlier Russia’s oil and gas wealth is by far the most essential element of its “adaptive capacity ” A historical correlation exists between the value of oil and gas rents on the one hand and Russian and Soviet economic performance and political behavior on the other Figure 1 When resource rents are high the Russian political system tends to be assertive centralized and less prone to reform When the rents grew in the 1970s and early 1980s the Soviet Union entered an expansive phase both economically and politically The subsequent collapse of oil rents was followed in short order by the collapse of the Soviet Union The sharp growth of oil and gas rents in the late 1990s-2000s correlates with the resurgence of authority and stability for which Vladimir Putin is often given credit The future price of oil and gas which follows the oil price closely is one of the most uncertain of all economic parameters Taking a high-price scenario of oil prices averaging $120 a barrel through 2030 and a low-price scenario of $40 a barrel forecasts of Russian oil and gas output can be used to give a plausible range for Russia’s future resource rents In either case rents would provide Russia with a great deal of wealth to meet significant climate and aging infrastructure challenges if they can be efficiently and effectively applied to that end In the high-price scenario Russia would enjoy a staggering amount of wealth over the next 20 years on average 30 percent higher than in the historically boom year of 2008 Even under the low-price scenario the average annual rents would be 80 percent higher than in the preceding 21-year period 1987-2008 Only the unlikely combination of an extended period of very low oil prices and poor policy in managing rents will produce a Russia as poor and weak as it was in the 1990s 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Figure 1 Russia’s Oil and Gas Rents 1970-2030 Source Clifford G Gaddy data from US Energy Information Administration EIA “International Energy Outlook 2008 ” State Repression When considering whether instability generated by climate change might pose a threat to state security it must be taken into account that the Russian Federation has an extensive and capable repressive internal security apparatus at its disposal The Federal Security Service FSB is a pervasive presence that has largely reclaimed the virtually unchecked powers it had in its previous incarnation as the Committee for State Security KGB The Ministry of the Interior MVD disposes of some 200 000 fully equipped internal security troops with which to put down armed insurrections Special Purpose Police Squad OMON riot control units are stationed in every Russian oblast and major city Civil groups and non-governmental organizations are allowed but are continually scrutinized discouraged and hindered in their activities in many indirect ways Such coercive measures may be directed at ecological movements that might otherwise assist the state and society in responding to climate change-induced challenges State coercion already has included publicly discrediting leading ecological figures and permitting or directing attacks on ecological groups by nationalist extremists “Level” of the Response The governments of the constituent republics oblasts and krays in many respects will be better positioned to observe and respond to the considerable variety of climate changeinduced challenges across Russia Horizontal mobilization across republics oblasts and krays is possible—perhaps organized around shared climate change impacts State centralization however has robbed the federal subject governments of authority and 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views resources which may dramatically reduce their effectiveness as first responders to the effects of climate change Ineffective policy responses from Moscow lack of consideration of local or regional interests and lack of attention to local or regional problems arising from climate change may lend increased impetus to demands for decentralization from the constituent levels of the Federation government Climate change may thus become a rationale that regional and local governments can use in negotiations with Moscow for greater authority and resources Territorial Integrity Russia is set to undergo a geographic shift in economic activity and population unrelated to climate change in which regions distant from Moscow may experience significant gains in population development and economic power If coupled with a perception that Moscow is unresponsive to local concerns—such as local effects of climate change—this increased clout may cause governments in the peripheral federal subjects to question their allegiance to the Federation For example if Sakhalin Oblast in the Russian Far East north of Japan becomes a key energy producer its leaders might question how it serves their interests to continue to be integrated with Russia rather than pursuing closer ties to their proximate customers in Northeast Asia That being said the central government is highly unlikely to allow threats to the Federation’s territorial cohesion to fester as the precedent of Chechnya illustrates The reassertion of Federal power under Vladimir Putin has for the time being reined in the federal subject governments and if they try to reassert themselves over the next two decades they will have a steep hill to climb In addition Moscow has shown interest in creating more cohesive national infrastructure as a means of strengthening ties with distant regions and is incorporating that strategic intent into its development projects The Eastern Gas Program for example envisions investment in gas-dependent industries such as fertilizer production in the Russian Far East and the connection of the Far Eastern gas fields with fields as far west as Lake Baikal These efforts may be driven by a desire to reinforce cohesion more than economic considerations if Moscow is able to maintain political influence over its distant territories in the Russian Far East resource development in the region could serve as a catalyst to hasten the integration of Russia with the economies of the Pacific Rim Urban Planning Climate change-related problems in cities have the potential to rapidly become severely destabilizing To the extent that municipal governments remain underresourced and subject to cumbersome overly centralized state control they have the potential to become weak links in Russia’s state response capacity Environmental Protection The federal subject governments are much closer to the ecological issues facing their regions than the central government and are more responsive to local ecological activism The federal subjects of the Siberian North strongly influenced by the beliefs and traditions of their indigenous inhabitants have been particularly active in autonomous environmental preservation measures The Sakha Republic for example features an excellent network of ecological protection zones two major federation level preserves five national parks 78 reserves and numerous other protected areas of local interest The Sakha Republic Ministry for the Protection of Nature publishes yearly reports available on the Internet documenting at least some 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views efforts at monitoring ecological devastation and planning for more Sakha preserves in the face of huge pressures for further development of the republic Nevertheless local authorities are sometimes loath to admit their failure to protect the health of their communities by publishing data on environmental degradation and pollution In addition local authorities have in many cases allowed mineral and energy exploitation to become priorities overriding local interests even while giving lip service to the importance of ecology and “lands of traditional means of subsistence ” State Economic Policies The former Soviet regime managed its resources and economy poorly and fell so deeply in debt to Western governments that it sacrificed its financial and in effect its political sovereignty From this experience Vladimir Putin and his associates concluded that financial and fiscal health were essential Consequently as oil prices rose the Putin regime prioritized the use of the windfall to pay off the country’s foreign debt and build reserves Russia’s foreign exchange reserves now the third largest in the world play a critical role primarily in protecting Russia’s financial sovereignty and secondarily ensuring the welfare of its citizens Looming increases in expenditures and greater economic uncertainty as a result of climate change are apt to reinforce these tendencies Marginally but not dramatically lower levels of revenue derived from hydrocarbon exports may also spur more rapid but still limited diversification of the Russian economy Public rhetoric in favor of “diversification away from oil” notwithstanding Moscow is not likely to diversify away from oil and gas despite its vulnerability to the vicissitudes of commodity prices Energy Policies Russia enjoys a major comparative advantage in hydrocarbon-based energy production that will persist regardless of increased production costs associated with climate change Indeed for the foreseeable future Russia will remain reliant on fossil fuel commodities and its energy planning envisions only modest diversification away from hydrocarbons mainly as an excuse to subsidize particular alternative energy industries To the extent that diversification to supplement oil and gas does occur hydroelectricity nuclear power and liquefied natural gas are the most likely choices The Russian Government nevertheless is showing interest in energy efficiency for the first time A recent World Bank study concludes that Russia can save up to 45 percent equivalent to nearly six million barrels of oil per day of its total primary energy consumption by adopting measures that could pay for themselves within four years 6 putting Russia in an excellent position to address any increase in demand or decline in production as a result of climate change In addition Russia has announced the intention to bring domestic energy prices up to international export parity by 2011 To the extent that Russia’s domestic energy demand is elastic this measure should reduce energy consumption which is inflated by artificially low domestic energy prices 6 World Bank and International Finance Corporation Energy Efficiency in Russia Untapped Reserves Washington 2008 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views A focus on increasing efficiency may delay implementation of the necessary energyinfrastructure improvement programs but it cannot substitute for them Indeed as noted previously the major focus of Russia’s domestic energy policy will be the vast capital expenditures associated with replacing the aging Soviet-era infrastructure that forms the core of Russia’s energy production enterprises Russia and its investment partners will need high prices in order to lay out the initial investments and will also need to be able to count on sustained high prices over the considerable period it will take to bring greenfield energy infrastructure online Developing oil fields in eastern Siberia will require $70 a barrel oil prices to be a profitable venture Russia’s simultaneous need to replace its aging infrastructure and to modify its infrastructure to take climate change into account is in some respects fortuitous For example an important preventive measure to reduce the chance of spills if climate change renders the permafrost-based pipeline systems unstable would be to elevate pipeline infrastructure and deepen its physical foundation to minimize risks of subsidence As long as Russian infrastructure planning incorporates those changes necessary to cope with such climate change effects as permafrost melting or exploit opportunities such as the opening of new ports in the Arctic Russia will only have to invest once to address both issues Greenfield development in the Barents Sea and Far East will require a great deal of new construction projects Historical infrastructure much of which will need replacement will be less important in supporting most of the greenfield projects although some will still rely on existing networks Development areas such as the Yamal Peninsula for example will require incremental new construction but will be connected to existing infrastructures Russia will face an increasing incentive to accept foreign involvement in these expensive and risky energy development projects at least on the financing end of the project Extending the existing pipeline infrastructure to reach the proposed Yamal field will cost $10 billion even before considering costs of field development The economic incentives pressing Russia in this to involve foreign investors nevertheless be filtered through a security lens by Kremlin decisionmakers and much of the critical supporting infrastructure—roads railroads bridges ports new settlements—will be paid for by the Russian state Lastly these large-scale infrastructure projects undoubtedly will be accompanied by waste corruption environmental degradation and outright construction errors Assuming errors are even fixed repairs and replacements will require all the more capital outlays For example a new oil pipeline being built near the Lena River in the Sakha Republic is being built as a trench rather than a tunnel with increasing possibilities of oil spills in conditions of melting permafrost even though the necessity of surrounding pipelines with tunnels or building them aboveground is obvious to locals in the area Hydroelectricity Increased river flows are expected to substantially boost Russia’s existing hydroelectric capacity and hydropower potential but as with the rest of the energy sector the hydroelectric infrastructure will require substantial investment Whereas in many countries notably China and India hydropower development is an international flashpoint this is unlikely to be the case in Russia Although most of its major rivers run almost entirely within Russia’s borders eliminating the common international issue of diversion by downstream countries Russia may be less likely to 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views pursue hydropower because oil and gas development will absorb most of the infrastructure investment Nuclear Power The nuclear power industry currently supplies 16 percent of Russia’s electricity needs and Russia plans to produce at least a quarter of its domestic electricity through nuclear power by 2030 The industry is managed by Atomenergoprom a civilian nuclear power monopoly subordinate to the Russian State Corporation for Atomic Energy Rosatom Atomenergoprom includes Energoatom which operates Russia’s civilian reactors the nuclear fuel producer and supplier TVEL nuclear goods and services exporter Tenex and nuclear facilities builder Atomstroyexport Although Atomenergoprom has ambitious plans to expand its export activity international concerns about proliferation make nuclear exports to some countries even more politicized than gas pipelines The nuclear industry like oil and gas needs to replace aging Soviet-era infrastructure however in the event of a prolonged global financial and domestic budgetary crisis the nuclear industry will have to compete with the far more profitable hydrocarbon industries for state funding and political cover which may constrain nuclear power expansion In order to fund domestic infrastructure needs Russia may turn to increased exports to such customers as Iran in order to fund domestic infrastructure needs with corresponding implications for global security Liquefied Natural Gas As Russia moves to develop new natural gas fields it has the option of diversifying from pipeline-based gas delivery into liquefied natural gas LNG Pipelines create a hardwired relationship between Russia and its customers primarily in Europe and increasingly in China Pipelines require consistent demand to be profitable and cannot easily be redirected to new customers Pipeline-delivered natural gas is therefore less commoditized than oil which is bought and sold on the world market rather than being directly delivered to specific customers In contrast tanker-shipped LNG allows more flexibility the LNG can be shipped to different customers as demand shifts This flexibility may become more appealing to Russian leaders and to the gas monopoly Gazprom if they assess that some customers particularly in Europe may try to move away from a fossil fuel-based economy On the other hand a less hardwired natural gas sector is likely to increase natural gas price volatility making Russia’s economy more vulnerable to external shocks Gazprom is likely to add LNG to its repertoire while retaining pipelines as its principal focus Historically Gazprom has avoided LNG in order to protect its pipeline monopoly but it has entered the LNG business with its participation in the Sakhalin-2 natural gas development project in the Russian Far East The firm also has drawn on foreign contractor expertise in LNG and deep-water gas drilling as in the case of the Shtokman field in the Barents Sea Nevertheless incremental updating and expansion of the existing pipeline-based natural gas export system remains cheaper than development of a greenfield liquefaction capability Water Policies As discussed previously Russia faces major technical and engineering challenges to manage the impact of hydrologic changes and soil subsidence from melting ice but the country has long battled harsh climatic and geological conditions with considerable perseverance and ingenuity Russia’s water supply is expected to increase overall but 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views much of the increase will occur in sparsely populated areas such as Siberia Indeed the differential climate change impact on water availability across Russia raises the question of whether the state will turn to large-scale water redistribution Water will be relatively overabundant in the north while the south where Russia’s key agricultural areas and most turbulent regions are located will face shortages Dating back to the Soviet period Russian leaders have considered reversing the Siberian rivers to flow south rather than unused into the Arctic Ocean Such grandiose civil engineering projects may be fanciful but more reasonable projects to transfer water from swollen northern rivers to the drying southern cities and fields are plausible The expected major increase in flow from the Volga River for example could supply irrigation to the adjacent steppe regions expected to face water shortages Russia will most likely need to build new reservoirs dams and water pipelines to adapt to a new hydrological environment Such projects would have to compete for resources with the equally massive infrastructure investments required in the energy sector Transportation Infrastructure At the same time the Russian state faces a large-scale requirement to upgrade the country’s transportation network to adapt to changing climatic conditions Many of Russia’s roads railways and bridges are constructed on permafrost and its melting is likely to necessitate laborious improvement of thousands of miles of roads and railways in northern Russia arteries needed for the expansion of infrastructure in the North Potential competing focuses for investment include a more substantial snow removal system ways to prevent ice-jamming of major rivers flood control systems and fortified bridges and river crossings Much of these infrastructure improvements will have to be undertaken before substantial progress can be made on the all-important energy infrastructure issue Accordingly portions of the transportation network associated with the energy sector will no doubt receive priority potentially leaving other parts of the country and their inhabitants with damaged or inadequate access to transportation for an extended period Regional Implications Russia not only enjoys a better climatic outlook than many of its neighbors but it has comparatively greater ability to cope with climate change As a result the most daunting climate change-induced challenges Russia will face out to 2030 may originate from outside its borders Regional Energy Issues Climate change is likely to affect Russia’s relations with its regional energy clients in two principal respects Firstly climatic stress on Russia’s pipeline infrastructure will likely lead to increased maintenance costs and increased development costs for new oil and gas fields Russia probably will pass these costs on to its customers in Europe and East Asia Secondly Europe is likely to forge ahead with efforts to transition away from fossil fuels and to alternative sources of energy in the interest of reducing emissions and mitigating longer-term climate change This would jeopardize demand from Russia’s primary energy customer 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Dynamics between Russia and its European energy customers are troubled Russia shut down its gas supplies to Ukrainian transit routes in January 2009 and the situation escalated into a gas blockade affecting much of Europe Gas supplies were shut off for eighteen days until Russia and Ukraine finally signed a memorandum of agreement Russia’s leaders may have been hoping to demonstrate Russia’s critical role in European energy security and to persuade European countries to fund new pipelines that would increase European access to Russia’s gas supplies But Russia could face a shortfall in its gas production once European demand recovers if Russia does not invest in new gas field development President Medvedev underscored the importance of constructing the proposed Nord Stream pipeline on the Baltic Sea bed to provide direct gas links to Germany and the South Stream pipeline that would bypass Ukraine carrying Russian gas exports over the Black Sea bed to the Balkans and Central Europe In addition Prime Minister Putin promoted Yamal Two the proposed pipeline westward through Belarus and Poland and the expansion of Blue Stream by way of the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey as well as a proposed gas pipeline eastward to China that would parallel a planned oil pipeline Some question whether or not Russia has the gas resources to fill these pipelines however The European Union has not responded to the gas crisis in an integrated manner by investing in diversified pipeline projects with Russia although some individual European states have made such investments Rather the EU has launched a serious effort to find non-Russian sources of natural gas such as the proposed Nabucco pipeline which would allow access to Caspian gas via Turkey bypassing Russia Because pipelines represent a major investment and a long-term relationship the reliability of the supplier is a critical consideration and Nabucco does not have sufficient non-Russian supply to be convincingly viable Russia’s provocative use of its gas pipelines as economic “weapons” may have branded it an unreliable supplier with serious long-term consequences for the country’s natural gas industry and have put European investment across Russia’s energy sector in some jeopardy Without European investment the proposed improvements to Russia’s export capacity would take longer to bring on line In addition to oil and gas Russia exports electricity to Scandinavia Ukraine and the Baltic States and imports it from the Trans-Caucasus Expected gains in Russia’s hydroelectric potential as a result of climate change raise the possibility that electricity exports could be expanded At the same time greater risks to transmission lines from soil subsidence and stronger winds are likely to complicate long-distance electricity transmission schemes The Arctic Ocean In contrast to their conservative attitude toward other aspects of climate change Russian scientists and officials have paid keen attention to the dramatic developments associated with rising Arctic temperatures and melting ice caps that have accelerated in the last several years Having by far the longest contiguous Arctic coastline and a preponderance of ice-capable naval capabilities Russia is ideally positioned to exploit the opening of the Arctic Ocean as an arena for trade and resource exploitation A key Russian Federation Security Council policy document entitled “On Defense of the Russian Federation’s National Interests in the Arctic ” frames Russia’s goals in the 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Arctic stating 7 that “the Arctic must become Russia’s main resource base ” and lists “active development of natural resources” as the first priority of the Russian Federation in the region It calls for “international recognition of the outer boundaries of Russia’s continental shelf in the Arctic ” an oblique reference to Russia’s claims of the Lomonosov and Mendeleev Ridges that would give Russia jurisdiction over half of the Arctic Ocean Russia claims that these subsea ridges extending far out into the Arctic Ocean are linked to the continental shelf and thus part of Russia’s legitimate maritime territory Russia claims nearly a half million square miles of seabed beyond its recognized 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone Direct conflict over Arctic resources may be unlikely since the majority of the energy reserves in the Arctic are in uncontested areas The incentives for cooperation—both in resource extraction and support to Arctic economic activities—may be greater than has been conventional wisdom In the limited areas that are contested states that anticipate exploiting resources have already begun to maneuver in support of their claims Denmark which chairs the Arctic Council for the next two years has made clear that it considers securing Arctic resources a priority Negotiations are complicated and Russia is sensitive to the fact that all the parties in disputes over Arctic territory except Russia are NATO members the United States Canada Denmark and Norway Beyond the Arctic’s potential energy resources the melting of the polar ice cap has major international implications specifically for maritime transit Formerly impassible sea lanes such as Canada’s fabled Northwest Passage are already beginning to open to shipping as the pack ice in the Arctic Ocean recedes The opening of the so-called Northern Sea Route NSR along Russia’s Arctic coast promises to cut thousands of miles off the shipping routes between Europe East Asia and the North American Pacific coast These shipping routes will create new strategic interests on Russia’s northern periphery for Russia NATO and non-contiguous countries anticipating heavy reliance on the NSR particularly China and the EU The sea lanes of the Arctic Ocean will remain perilous rising water temperatures will increase the power and severity of Arctic storms which along with icebergs will potentially hamper shipping and the exploitation of offshore energy deposits Russia is likely to play a major role in search-and-rescue SAR and weather monitoring for Arctic shipping in the rough northern seas which may facilitate a more cooperative approach among the Arctic states For example the US Coast Guard already works well with the Russians in the Arctic The receding ice also opens up potential ports along the Russian northern coast which could allow Russia to more easily export onshore energy from northern Siberia Historically Russia’s main strategic challenge was to secure access to warm water ports for both military and economic purposes In effect climate change will bring the ice-free ports to Russia removing one of the most durable strategic rationales for Russian expansionism Russia is already building a new class of winterized ice-capable tankers to transport oil in rough Arctic waters 7 Заседание Совета Безопасности Российской Федерации Russian Federation Security Council Meeting «О защите национальных интересов Российской Федерации в Арктике» On the defense of Russian Federation’s national interests in the Arctic 17 September 2008 NIC 2009-04 p 34 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views New ports on Russia’s Arctic coast may provide vital shelter to ships during violent storms along the NSR along with SAR and emergency infrastructure and refueling stations Although Russia’s fleet of Arctic-capable icebreakers may be less required given the receding ice the ships may assume a SAR role as shipping traffic increases Lastly revitalization of Arctic ports may be a means to extend state administrative control into previously isolated areas of Russia’s North To date Russia’s commitment to developing its Siberian ports has been mainly rhetorical but this is likely to change as the NSR opens to shipping traffic Russian enthusiasm about the Arctic surged at the time of rapid economic growth and high oil prices peaking in 2007 with the planting of a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole The current global economic downturn significantly reduces the incentives for Arctic development both onshore and offshore Observations of Russian media indicate that the “Arctic buzz” has waned since the onset of the economic crisis in the fall of 2008 Nevertheless Russia’s sense of entitlement to the Arctic’s resources and the likely continued opening of the ocean because of melting ice ensure that the “buzz” will be heard again Fishing Conflicts Climate change may generate increased disputes over fishing rights in the Arctic and Russia’s peripheral seas Changes in the movement of fish schools could bring Russian and other fishermen into conflict over new fishing grounds and exacerbate competition in existing grounds particularly in the Arctic Ocean and the Baltic Sea While unlikely to drive international conflict at the strategic level particularly when compared to the subsea resource issue fishing conflicts have great potential to generate local incidents that raise the overall level of tension in the seas along Russia’s periphery Disputes over fishing rights and the relocation of fishing grounds could become a larger factor in relations between the Arctic states particularly Russia and Norway which have had disputed control of waters—in terms of sub-sea resources and fishing rights—in the western Barents Sea for decades Cross-Border Migration Immigration into Russia currently follows a “pull” scenario migrants enter Russia pulled by better employment opportunities In European Russia and Siberia the majority of migrants come from Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus Armenia Azerbaijan and Georgia while temporary Chinese laborers are a major presence in the Far East Climate change-induced migration would instead follow a “push” scenario in which adverse climatic effects in neighboring countries would drive migration of environmental or economic refugees into Russia Water shortages and more frequent droughts particularly in Central Asia Mongolia and Northeast Chin could push large numbers of people into Russia and become a source of instability especially in hard economic times As with internal migration however it is not clear that populations under climateinduced stress will respond by migrating rather than taking measures to adapt Moreover any climate change-induced migration into Russia may in fact be less destabilizing than previously considered as an increase in “push” migration may coincide with a decline in “pull” migration Much of the immigration into Russia has been 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views essentially a redistribution of population after the collapse of the empire A large proportion of migrants have been ethnic Russians residing in the former Soviet Republics but that source of migration is now almost depleted The attractive influence of social networks and economic incentives may also be reaching a saturation point In the medium term as “push” migration becomes a larger factor Russia will begin experiencing the previously mentioned expected steep decline in working-age population and the demand for labor will increase Russia might consider a guest worker program similar to those in Europe Migration from Central Asia Mongolia Climate change may have an especially severe effect on conditions in arid Central Asia particularly in terms of water shortages and disruption of agricultural patterns but a number of factors including historical precedent suggest that a rapid and destabilizing exodus from Central Asia into Russia is unlikely Environmental conditions in Central Asia—such as air contamination of large swaths of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan resulting from the drying out of the Aral Sea— degraded significantly in the late 1980s and continued to deteriorate rapidly in the 1990s Although these adverse conditions affected all ethnic populations in the region the overwhelming majority of migrants to Russia were ethnic Russians as by and large nonRussian groups remained in their home countries Moreover most large population centers in Central Asia lie far from Russia’s borders in the southern parts of the region such as the Fergana Valley Iran South Asia and even western China are closer potential destinations for migration than Russia Passenger transit is limited and costly and the Russian Border Guard Service—now part of the FSB—mans border checkpoints at the main road and rail entry points from Kazakhstan into Russia Although it may face similar climate change-induced pressures to the Central Asian states Mongolia has too small a population to pose a migration challenge to Russia If migration from Mongolia increased the ethnic Mongolian populations on the Russian side of the border would probably help absorb the newcomers Moreover “push” migration out of Mongolia is more likely to be directed toward China Migration from the Trans-Caucasus Migration from Azerbaijan Georgia and Armenia may prove particularly troublesome given the existing ethnic tensions Bitter memories persist of the Russian apartment bombings in 1999 that were blamed on people from the Caucasus and contributed to the intensification of Russia’s military engagement in Chechnya To date migrants from the Trans-Caucasus have preferred to settle in the large cities of European Russia where they can find work rather than in the North Caucasus where conditions are similar what they seek to escape Chinese Migration The numbers of Chinese economic migrants crossing the border into the Russian Far East are already considerable and increased migration could create tension between the two countries eroding recent improvements in bilateral relations Unlike the Central Asian states however China ranks high in terms of resilience to climate change so “push” migration may be less of a factor and the Chinese state with its increasing adaptive capacity is likely to be able to act to cushion adverse climate change impacts Nevertheless sustained climatic pressure from desertification in China’s Northeast could still increase Chinese migration into the Amur River valley and Russia’s Maritime Province Primorskiy Kray areas where the ethnic Russian population is in decline 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Moreover labor shortages in the Russian Far East will continue to drive “pull” migration from China although climate change may somewhat alter the pattern of this migration The southern areas of permafrost now near China’s border are likely to move northward 90-120 miles which may negatively affect agriculture in the Amur River region because of soil deterioration and more pests and make the area less attractive to Chinese agricultural migrants At the same time Arctic warming could shift the northern borders of the forests and steppes north by up to 600 miles and tundra areas become more hospitable In the longer term this shift could open more of the interior to the timber industry which already employs many Chinese migrants in Primorskiy Kray and other parts of the Russian Far East These shifts could gradually induce more Chinese migrants to penetrate further into the Russian interior rather than clustering near the border A real potential exists for the Russian Far East to become demographically Chinese although driven more by an outflow of Russians than an influx of Chinese Although the Far Eastern Federal District comprises over a third of Russia’s territory less than six million people live there concentrated in the cities on the Chinese border The region has suffered a very sharp decline in population since 1991 as Russians are moving west in search of greater economic opportunities and better living conditions and the population is projected to drop to 4 5 million by 2015 Water Disputes Fairly few areas in Russia are likely to be the center of major disputes over control of fresh water resources between Russia and its neighbors Disputes between regions within Russia are far more likely to cause trouble The major shared water resource in Russia is the Amur River which runs along the Sino-Russian border The flow of the Amur is projected to increase significantly because of climate change so conflict seems unlikely Projected sustained water shortages in northern China could lead to interest in Lake Baikal which holds one fifth of the world’s unfrozen fresh water more than all the North American Great Lakes combined Peripheral Instability Resource and ethnic conflicts and humanitarian disasters within countries neighboring Russia are likely given their limited adaptive capacities compared to Russia Russian humanitarian intervention appears very likely given Russia’s traditionally paternalistic attitude toward its “Near Abroad ” Some interventions in hard-hit regions such as Central Asia could require considerable resources 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Foreign Policy Implications Russia’s Global Engagement Because international engagement is not Russia’s preferred option for addressing its critical interests Russia will most likely seek autarkic solutions to problems related to climate change where it can and accept international cooperation where it must Given the regional variation in projected climate change effects and Russia’s probable expanding state capacity Moscow will address most problems by transferring resources from one part of its territory or economy to another Disruptions to agriculture may render the country more dependent on international markets for food and put pressure on Russia to address the ports and transportation infrastructure Russia is already seeking large-scale international investments in its energy sector but as projected costs rise Moscow will be less able to set the terms for such agreements and will have to take greater care not to alienate prospective investors This may inhibit Russia from adventurism and “pipeline warfare” and encourage a more cooperative stance with lender countries Russia may also have a greater need for foreign expertise in its energy industries for example in the area of deep-water oil drilling which could lead to more openness to foreign investment and partnerships in production The regional implications of climate change along Russia’s periphery could easily translate into broader foreign policy concerns Climate-induced stress and resource competition could deepen NATO and United States involvement in the Caucasus Central Asia and the Arctic all areas of vital interest to Russia Russia is unlikely to tolerate such encroachment even if it is framed in cooperative or humanitarian terms Russia’s Global Energy Policy Russia’s long-term financial solvency rests on its ability to ensure that it has reliable customers for its oil and natural gas exports in order to continue as a principal world energy supplier In doing so Russia will have to change its energy policies in reaction to the inevitable shifts in the structure of the global energy markets Russian expectations of the future of oil prices will determine the range of climate change policy options it feels able to consider With the exception of natural gas through pipelines Russia will face difficulties preserving itself as a monopolistic provider of energy because its customers will naturally seek diversification and security of supply Russia’s most important international relationships will be with its primary longer-term energy customers particularly China Russia’s position as a fossil fuel-based energy supplier will not be threatened if the United States and or Europe move aggressively away from fossil fuels or away from dependence on foreign sources Projections suggest that demand and therefore prices of Russian supply will stay high because of increases in energy demand in developing markets such as China and India A Western move away from fossil fuels would nevertheless be troublesome and costly to Russia forcing Moscow to reorient its exports and the attendant distribution infrastructure Russia already faces a major medium-term shift toward Asia as its principal energy export market but Western alternative energy 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views policies could accelerate that shift making more difficult the reorientation and recapitalization of Russia’s energy infrastructure Despite projected Asian demand Russia needs to prepare for a contingency involving a reduction in overall world demand for oil by diversifying its portfolio as an energy supplier to include more focus on natural gas and nuclear energy In keeping with its conservative tendencies Russia is likely to pursue both options Nuclear energy is a lucrative business area for Russia’s energy export sector Russia has the production capabilities and technical expertise to be a key world supplier of civilian nuclear technology and its ability to provide nuclear technology at relatively low prices makes it attractive to some customers If Russia couples provision of nuclear reactors with reprocessing or disposal of spent fuel rods the proliferation fears associated with customers acquiring weapons-grade nuclear materials might be assuaged This is essentially the agreement Russia made with Iran concerning provision of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant Russia’s Foreign Policy Perspectives on Climate Change Russia does not yet consider the climate change issue a top-tier priority Although this is likely to change over the next decade as more hard evidence of its disruptive impact surfaces Russia still probably will feel less motivation to address climate change than the United States and others Moscow also does have a legitimate rationale to regard climate change as not wholly negative given that while mainly disruptive it is likely to generate beneficial effects in some areas Nevertheless as previously noted evidence such as its recent climate change doctrine does suggest that Russia’s views may be coming more into line with the international community Even if Russia is realizing that climate change is a serious issue Russia’s position on climate change has been and is likely to remain divergent from that of many other countries including the United States Much of the international debate on climate change mitigation including the prospective debate at Copenhagen has focused on measures to address the factors generating climate change such as greenhouse gas emissions As a primary fossil fuel supplier Russia has little incentive to constructively engage in a debate that ultimately aims to extinguish the country’s primary source of revenue Even if it successfully manages the domestic energy challenges brought about by climate change Russia’s continued reliance on fossil fuel production will exacerbate rather than mitigate global climate change Russia has therefore tended to treat climate change as a fait accompli and preferred to focus on adapting to and treating its effects rather than attacking the causes Russia nonetheless is willing to accept international restrictions on emissions and initiatives toward alternative energy as long as it can be confident that demand for its oil and gas will continue to grow in Asia and the developing world US Engagement with Russia on Climate Change Constructive engagement on climate change will be hampered by Russia’s distrust of the United States Beyond the legacy of decades of strategic confrontation Russia has more proximate and concrete concerns that Western policy decisions pose direct threats to its security Russia feels threatened by recent expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe and 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views particularly plans to admit more former Soviet Republic such as Ukraine or Georgia Expanded US involvement in Central Asia NATO operations in the Balkans and moves toward establishing a US missile defense shield in Europe contribute to a siege mentality in the Kremlin Russia’s proactive stance in the Arctic may be an attempt to turn the tables and keep the United States and NATO at arm’s length The Cold War experience however illustrates that Russia and the United States can cooperate in some areas even in an atmosphere of distrust and strategic competition Therefore the two may be able to cooperate and engage constructively on climate change mitigation Moreover Russia’s assessment of the US approach to energy and climate change—in particular how Moscow assesses US energy policy will affect oil and gas prices—will play a significant role in its internal approach to climate change If Russia sees the United States making clear steps towards alleviating climate change Russia will begin to adjust its own policies in response such as by ensuring that international oil and gas prices stay high or becoming a key supplier of alternative energy technologies such as nuclear power That said ultimately Russia will care more about the policies adopted by Europe or China its primary customers Russia is more likely to respond constructively to approaches framed in terms of energy policy rather than climate change policy Specifically Russia has much to gain from energy efficiency and an emphasis on technical cooperation regarding efficiency highlights action that can benefit Russia and help mitigate climate change US companies also have expertise in areas such as deep-water drilling that might open doors to a more cooperative approach to Arctic energy exploration In terms of alternative energy nuclear energy may be a fruitful area for US-Russian cooperation on climate change-related issues and proliferation-resistant nuclear technology to meet the needs of international nuclear energy markets The United States has pursued a framework for providing nuclear fuel reprocessing—a service Russia also offers—multilaterally through the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership GNEP Russia has expressed openness to cooperation with the United States or other countries on such approaches Technical and scientific cooperation on climate represents another potentially fruitful area of engagement For example the United States might pursue Russia’s expressed interest in developing better data and models with which to assess the future effects of climate change The United States also might involve Russia in joint efforts to model future climate scenarios Joint modeling may not result in unified analytic results but would at least foster a common understanding of the parameters of the issues involved Alternatively such an initiative might be undertaken at the non-governmental level partnering with Russian think tanks and research institutes The Copenhagen Negotiations Russia’s approach to the climate change negotiations is likely to be pragmatic and opportunistic and focused on ensuring that the terms of any deal are to its benefit or at least cost Moscow nothing Russia believes it has less at stake in the climate change debate and more freedom to extract concessions from the participants The practical effect global climate change agreement is a secondary concern for Russia although it would likely welcome a deal that mitigates some of the sources of climate change without constraining its oil and gas exports 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Russia’s overarching strategy at Copenhagen probably will be to leave the contentious negotiations to the United States China India and the European Union Russia will look to take full advantage of the United States’ interest in brokering deals with India and China and will take every opportunity to extract favorable concessions Moscow may position itself as an important swing player and broker between the West and the developing world Russia expects that the results of Copenhagen will not differ radically from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol They presume that such a Kyoto-like system would be based on substantial individual pledges to reduce emissions according to the signatories’ particular developmental situation The terms of Kyoto were highly beneficial for Russia because emissions pledges were based on percentage changes from 1990 baseline levels the economic collapse of the former Soviet countries after 1991 caused a major reduction in emissions and it was easy for Russia to keep its emissions below the limitation set based on the 1990 baselines One of Russia’s objectives at Copenhagen will be to retain the favorable 1990 baseline over European objections Russia’s recent rhetorical recognition of the challenges posed by climate change may be a strategic move intended to better position itself to secure favorable concessions at Copenhagen By appearing more in line with prevailing views of climate change Russia may hope to find other participants more favorable towards its positions and to lay the groundwork to request exemption from certain climate change mitigation measures Russia’s primary focus may be to secure favorable terms for its major capital projects and insure that any agreement reached at Copenhagen includes less restrictive terms for foreign investments Because of its high projected investment needs Russia will seek to secure joint international investment and credits for their energy infrastructure projects on the grounds that they will increase efficiency and thereby help mitigate climate change Gazprom for example argues that investment to help them upgrade their gas pipeline system and credits for reducing gas flaring by a significant amount would be beneficial in combating climate change Gazprom and other elements of the Russian energy industry have identified climate-related international investment as a major potential source of funding Although Russia may exhibit a flexible position on climate change it has very little room to maneuver in terms of concessions that would negatively affect its oil and gas sector It is also very unlikely to accept conditions that it regards as threatening its sovereignty Russian willingness to accept the terms of an international climate deal could evaporate if these core interests are challenged or its paranoia over an international anti-Russian conspiracy is triggered 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2009-21 December 2009 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 NIA 2008-01 June 2008 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For North Africa the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Selected Countries A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-05 of August 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determines whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for North Africa • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact of climate change on US national security In August 2009 a group of regional experts convened to explore the sociopolitical challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on North Africa through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists economists and political scientists The group focused on Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco and Tunisia Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was out to 2030 the perceptions of decision makers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate This work is provided under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with CIA’s Office of the Chief Scientist 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in North Africa held on 20 August 2009 brought together a panel of experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on North Africa from a social political and economic perspective The workshop focused on Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco and Tunisia The panelists concluded that systemic state failures attributable solely to climate change to 2030 are not likely However climatic stress coupled with socioeconomic crises and ineffective state responses could generate localized social or governmental collapses and humanitarian crises The effects of climate change in North Africa will exacerbate the region’s existing challenges of insufficient water and food resources low economic growth inadequate urban infrastructure and weak sociopolitical systems • Climate change will reduce water availability and quality creating the potential for severe water shortages in both cities and rural areas By 2030 three-quarters of Egyptians will have inadequate access to fresh water • Droughts flooding salinization and overall water scarcity will adversely affect agriculture threatening food security and forcing farmers off their land • Climatic stress will add to the already substantial migration from rural areas into cities exacerbating the region’s urban challenges Cities will face deteriorating living conditions high unemployment and frequent civil unrest • The region is likely to face civil conflicts over scarce resources such as water arable land food or employment which may be expressed in sectarian ethnic or anti-regime tensions North Africa faces increased risks of interstate conflict with southern neighbors over the next 20 years owing to the impacts of climate change • Attempts by Sudan or other upstream states to expand their use of the Nile River in response to climatic stress would seriously threaten Egypt and could provoke armed conflict • North African states may be drawn into conflicts or climatic crises in the vulnerable Sahel region to the south Conflicts involving nomadic populations could easily see migrants cross state borders Climate change will likely increase the already substantial emigration of North Africans to Europe The region will serve as a route for transmigration of Sub-Saharan Africans fleeing severe climatic stress • North African states will seek to encourage emigration as a safety valve relieving demographic resource and employment pressures • European and North African cooperation to prevent an influx of Sub-Saharan African migrants may result in European states turning a blind eye to North African human rights abuses as long as migration is kept under control North Africa’s capacity to adapt to climate change is inhibited by underdeveloped and disempowered civil societies and the dominance of repressive but often ineffectual regimes 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • A few key decision-makers dominate state policymaking and economic activity in North Africa Their main objective over the next two decades will be to bolster regime security and resilience against climate change-induced instability • North African regimes are based on coercion and corrupt patronage systems and are lacking in institutional capital ingenuity and flexibility State institutions are often unable or unwilling to provide public services or respond effectively to crises • Longstanding state suppression of civil mobilization and a lack of social capital will significantly constrain the capacity of civil society to address climate change • Ineffective state responses and state suppression of civil society allow Islamist groups to fill the void Climatic stress will create opportunities for both moderate and extremist Islamist groups to expand their influence in North Africa Nevertheless North African states and societies have repeatedly shown the capacity to withstand sustained challenges without overall systemic collapse • North African states have robust capacity to maintain social control in the face of challenges and destabilization They are adept at controlling information deflecting blame and suppressing opposition • Despite widespread institutional deficiencies North African states have demonstrated the capacity to marshal considerable national resources and tackle large-scale infrastructure projects • Climate change is one of the few cross-cutting issues having the potential to spur more serious efforts at regional cooperation • Among the North African states Libya and Algeria are less economically vulnerable to challenges that arise from climate change because their economies are supported by exporting fossil fuels and are not dependant upon agriculture or tourism North African states will actively seek Western assistance in addressing climate change While the four Maghreb states will turn primarily to Europe Egypt will rely more on the United States • North African states will leverage the threat of unrestrained migration or regional collapse to secure increased Western aid • Europe has a strong interest in preventing spillover from climate change-induced instability in North Africa and will likely intervene to avert state failures or social collapses North Africa will absorb an increasing proportion of Europe’s attention and resources 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Social Political and Economic Challenges 10 Hydrologic Challenges Agricultural Challenges Demographic Challenges Economic Challenges 10 12 13 14 Civil and Key Interest Group Responses 16 Social Adaptive Capacity Awareness of Climate Change Civil Society and the State Civil Responses to Climate Change Prospects for Civil Conflict 16 17 17 18 20 21 State Responses State Decision-Making State Capacity Climate Change Mitigation and Development Planning Social Control Prospects for State Failure Regional Implications Prospects for Regional Cooperation North Africa and Europe Cross-Border Migration Prospects for Regional Conflict Overall Foreign Policy Implications Climate Change Mitigation Assistance The United States and North Africa The Copenhagen Negotiations 5 This paper does not represent US Government views 22 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 29 32 33 33 34 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background1 Climate model projections available for North Africa indicate a clear increase in temperature over the next 20 years that is expected to continue throughout the 21st century probably at a rate higher than the estimated global average Model simulations also suggest a drying trend in the region particularly along the Mediterranean coast driven by large decreases expected in summertime precipitation Because coastal areas historically receive by far the largest amount of rainfall in North Africa future decreases will likely have a significant and noticeable impact Precipitation trends in the interior semiarid and arid regions of North Africa are more difficult to predict due to the very small amount of natural precipitation that characterizes these areas Climate change will induce some variations in precipitation patterns but the trend is not clear as some models predict slight increases and others predict slight decreases in annual precipitation amounts The Regional Climate Change Index RCCI 2 identifies the Mediterranean as a very responsive region to climate change “Hot-Spot” Given the ecological and socioeconomic characteristics of the southern Mediterranean countries the impact of climate change may be more marked than in other regions of the world Still most of the predicted impacts in the region are already occurring regardless of climate change e g water stress and desertification Climate change is expected to exacerbate these trends Based on global climate projections and given inherent uncertainties the most significant impacts of climate change in North Africa Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya and Egypt will likely include the following • Water Resources Stress 3 All countries of North Africa are presently experiencing water stress Model simulations show a general decrease in rainfall across North Africa with median decreases in average annual precipitation of 12 percent and 6 percent projected for the Mediterranean and Saharan regions respectively This general drying trend for North Africa is punctuated by seasonal variations in projected precipitation that differ by region Predicted decreases in average annual rainfall accompanied by projected increases in the population of the region may impede access to water for millions of inhabitants In addition with decreasing water levels other ecological effects such as salinity in coastal areas and deterioration of water quality may increase 1 This section is extracted from the Executive Summary of the Phase I report see Scope Note North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Selected Countries A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-05 August 2009 Some of the judgments in this report Phase II may differ from those in the Phase I report 2 The RCCI is calculated for 26 land regions from projections of 20 global climate models using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC emission scenarios 3 Water Stress as used by the IPCC refers to a per capita water availability of below 1 000 cubic meters per person per year sometimes IPCC referenced sources also use a ratio of withdrawals to long-term average runoff of 0 4 The IPCC formally defines a country as water stressed when withdrawals exceed 20% of renewable water supply 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Agriculture Model results are inconsistent regarding future changes in crop yields and agricultural growing seasons in North Africa and we do not know whether variations in temperature precipitation or atmospheric CO2 will be the dominant factor One modeling study suggests that future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase maize yields in Morocco while other modeling studies suggest that future increases in air temperature will have a negative effect on growing seasons and crop yields in Egypt Relatively heat-tolerant species such as maize are expected to suffer the smallest losses in yield and growing area while heat-intolerant crops such as wheat are expected to suffer the largest losses In addition intensive irrigation practices in the region may result in further salinity which may lead to desertification Adaptation strategies including modifications in sowing dates to match climate changes and development of heat-tolerant crop varieties will likely mitigate some of the expected negative effects on North African agriculture Development of regional and local climate models in the coming years that include projections of Mediterranean Sea level rise and decreases in the Nile River flow are expected to provide more accurate estimates of future changes in North African agricultural regions • Migration In recent years North Africa has experienced vast migration pressures from both migrants that settle in the region from the south or that use North African countries as a transit area to reach Europe Thus far experts have not cited climate change as a driving force for migration in the region nevertheless a warmer climate and changing precipitation patterns which will likely reduce viable cropland and reduce access to water will increase urbanization and make accommodating the needs of a growing population more difficult Besides food and water necessities climate change-related migration may also imply greater demands on infrastructure along the coasts as well as ethnic racial or religious clashes • Natural Disasters Because of the lack of historical data from tide gauges in the region the wide range of future estimates in sea level and the paucity of regional climate model projections for the Mediterranean Sea a definitive estimate of sea level rise along the coastline of North Africa in the next 20 years is not possible However the intensity and frequency of floods along the Mediterranean coast are expected to increase by the middle of the 21st century Compared to other regions the impacts of sea level rise in North Africa are expected to be stronger in terms of social economic and ecological factors Highly populated and agriculturally important coastal cities are the most vulnerable In addition two more potentially serious impacts are the following • Tourism Tourism is an important source of income for most countries of North Africa Of concern however are the large quantities of water this sector demands and the little attention that governments of this region have given to water provision in the past Thus increased water scarcity sea level rise and increasing temperatures will likely have a negative impact on this sector and consequently the economy of most North African countries • Energy The economies of Algeria Libya and to a lesser extent Egypt are dependent on the hydrocarbon industry Because of the revenues they receive from 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views exporting fossil fuels—mostly to Europe—they are to some degree more resilient to the deleterious impacts of climate change Any shift in the interest of other regions in importing natural gas and oil from North Africa conversely may make these North African countries considerably more vulnerable However there is no indication now that Europe and other importing regions will stop importing from North Africa in the next few decades Based on a comprehensive global comparative study of resilience to climate change including adaptive capacity using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model a wide range of adaptive capacity is represented in this group of countries from Libya ranking 34th in a 160-country study to Morocco ranking 136th in the same study Under a highgrowth scenario of the future all countries gain adaptive capacity especially Libya However under a delayed-growth scenario all of these North African countries lose adaptive capacity 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges Even in the absence of global climate change North Africa will face significant sociopolitical challenges over the next two decades The region will have to contend with pressures created by a burgeoning youth population tenuous economic growth persistent unemployment and urbanization and related stresses including inadequate housing and infrastructure The effects of climate change in North Africa will likely exacerbate these existing political economic and social challenges potentially worsening them to the point of plunging the region into crisis Hydrologic Challenges North Africa is one of the world’s most arid regions and the lack of water represents one of the most important challenges facing North African states and societies Water availability is the primary determinant of settlement patterns in the region a fact illustrated most dramatically by Egypt’s Nile Valley Water stress and scarcity are major problems across the region due to major population growth and economic development as well as to arid conditions As a result significant segments of the population in North Africa depend on a limited number of tenuous water sources that are in danger of depletion even under current climatic conditions The most extreme examples are the oasis settlements of the Sahara where densely concentrated populations depend on a single source of groundwater Such conditions render North Africa particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced hydrologic challenges The hydrologic impacts expected as a result of climate change to 2030 will differ across the region North Africa comprises at least three distinct hydrologic systems Egypt is almost entirely dependent on water from the Nile which in turn is fed by drainage from the highlands of East Africa The Mediterranean coasts of the Maghreb depend on direct rainfall groundwater and drainage from the Atlas Mountains Without appreciable rainfall the Sahara depends entirely on subterranean aquifers The Nile Valley Almost all of Egypt’s population and agriculture is concentrated in a narrow strip along the banks of the Nile and in the Nile Delta Any serious disruption of the Nile’s flow whether due to climate change or human activity represents a threat to Egypt Upstream water diversion schemes by Sudan and Ethiopia have been a recurring source of regional tension a dynamic that climatic stress is likely to intensify over the next 20 years The probable direct effects of climate on the Nile’s flow are less clear The sources of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and the White Nile in the East African Great Lakes region depend substantially on the monsoon rains originating in the Indian Ocean Shifts in the monsoon will probably exert a greater influence on the fate of the Nile than climate change in North Africa proper Climate change within the region will nevertheless exacerbate a number of threats to the lower Nile and Nile Delta Although sea-level rise is not likely to threaten most of North Africa’s coast to 2030 much of the Nile Delta is already at or even below sea level Even marginal sea-level rise combined with storm surges could create disastrous flooding in the delta Egypt’s second largest urban center Alexandria is at high risk for catastrophic flooding that could cause billions of dollars in damage and threaten millions of inhabitants One of the principal reasons for construction of the Aswan High Dam completed in 1970 was to control seasonal flooding along the Nile As a result of doing 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views so however the dam reduced the replenishment of fertile silt leading to erosion of the Nile Delta Reduced flows also allowed encroachment of saltwater into the delta contaminating the groundwater On the other hand the water impounded in Lake Nasser may provide Egypt with a means to compensate if climate change causes variations in Nile flow Threats to water quality and increasing urban demand for potable water will likely pose greater hydrologic challenges for Egypt than outright water scarcity Water quality in Egypt is already poor subject to pollution and high salinity and causes a high incidence of waterborne illnesses and infections Climatic stress on agriculture will likely cause greater use of fertilizers contaminating drinking water In the Nile Delta salinization of groundwater resulting from over extraction will significantly reduce available potable water By 2030 three-quarters of Egyptians will have inadequate access to fresh water The Coastal Maghreb The Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of the Maghreb have a wet-dry climate that on the one hand brings periodic and often sustained droughts and on the other hand causes occasional extreme precipitation that leads to flooding Climate change will likely exacerbate both of these extremes Droughts in the region are already increasing in frequency and severity this trend will likely continue through 2030 Droughts have caused serious damage to agriculture in Morocco and Tunisia and could put tens of millions of North Africans at risk for water stress Population agriculture and economic activity in the Maghreb are disproportionately concentrated in areas at risk for flooding More frequent and severe floods will damage both urban and rural infrastructure agriculture and housing as well as threatening water quality In addition to low-lying coastal plains the valleys of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria and the margins of the periodic salt lakes such as Chott el Djerid in Tunisia are subject to flash floods due to extreme rainfall A related threat from extreme rainfall is mudslides particularly in Algeria where the Atlas Mountains rise steeply above the densely populated coastal plain In 2001 extreme rainfall triggered mudslides in Algiers that killed over 500 people and generated significant urban unrest In addition to periodic extreme weather events draughts and floods the coastal Maghreb is projected to suffer an overall 12 percent decrease in annual precipitation to 2030 Given the existing high level of demand for water resources in the area such a decrease will create major socioeconomic stress Both urban and rural water distribution infrastructure in the coastal Maghreb is fairly extensive but inefficient and antiquated Higher temperatures will increase evaporation already a major cause of water wastage due to the widespread reliance on inefficient surface irrigation systems Aside from major disruptions to rain-fed agriculture reductions in runoff reservoir levels and river flows could lead to sustained urban water shortages Water scarcity will likely become a major driver of sociopolitical unrest and migration In addition to rainfall the other major water source is groundwater drawn from aquifers The Maghreb’s coastal aquifers face severe strain due to increasing rural and urban water demand Climate change-induced reductions in precipitation will both increase reliance on groundwater and reduce renewal from runoff In addition coastal saline intrusion will contaminate coastal aquifers—saline contamination of drinking water is already a problem in Tunisia The Maghreb states will increasingly need to tap into the inland 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views aquifers under the Sahara Libya has taken the lead in doing so with its “Great Manmade River” GMMR project and consequently will not face the same water stress its neighbors will suffer to 2030 The GMMR is tied to a prehistoric non-renewable water source that will ensure adequate water supply in Libya for at least the next half century The supply life of the GMMR may be extended if other aquifers provide an additional water source or are found to be replenishable however there are no known Saharan aquifers of similar scale The Sahara The socioeconomic impacts on North African states from climatic changes in the Sahara are likely to be minimal due to the lack of agriculture and low population Many areas of the Sahara already experience decades without rainfall climate change will only worsen conditions incrementally The most significant regional impact may be the drawdown of Saharan aquifers that provide water to neighboring areas such as the Mediterranean coast and the Sahel Drying and warming trends as well as depletion of aquifers may also accelerate desertification in the semiarid strip along the interior margins of the Atlas Mountains an area disproportionately inhabited by Berber minorities In addition even marginal climatic shifts could put acute water stress on the isolated Saharan oases which host densely concentrated populations living under very marginal conditions Climatic stress on desert scrub vegetation will threaten the marginal grazing that underpins the nomadic pastoral lifestyle of desert-dwelling Berber groups such as the Tuareg The oases are also milestones on the trans-Saharan migration routes and Sub-Saharan African migrants who are often halted at the oases for considerable periods of time are likely to suffer the worst privations Agricultural Challenges Despite the region’s aridity North Africa hosts substantial agricultural activity in the Nile Valley and coastal plains and highlands of the Maghreb Although agriculture is no longer the dominant economic sector in any North African country it remains important in all but Libya 4 Egypt accounts for roughly half the region’s agricultural production and Morocco and Algeria are also major agricultural producers A disproportionately large segment of the labor force is engaged in agriculture both directly and in the processing or trading of agricultural products particularly in Tunisia and Morocco 5 Over the next two decades climate change-induced stress on the agricultural sector will threaten the livelihoods and subsistence of millions across the region The primary climatic challenges facing North African agriculture to 2030 are likely to be the aforementioned impacts on the region’s already constrained water resources Droughts flooding salinization and overall water scarcity will adversely affect agriculture Other climate change-related effects may have a more mixed impact Whereas expected temperature increases and reduced growing areas and growing seasons will adversely affect agricultural productivity carbon dioxide fertilization may sharply increase productivity in some cases Climatic impacts on agriculture will depend on highly 4 Agriculture accounts for 16 percent of GDP in Morocco 13 percent in Egypt 11 percent in Tunisia 8 percent in Algeria and only 1 7 percent in Libya 5 Agriculture accounts for 55 percent of the labor force in Tunisia 45 percent in Morocco 32 percent in Egypt 17 percent in Libya and 14 percent in Algeria 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views localized conditions the tolerances of specific crops and the effectiveness of agricultural adaptation measures Egypt and the Maghreb have differing agricultural systems based on their differing hydrology Egyptian agriculture is entirely dependent on Nile irrigation while the Maghreb hosts a mix of rain-fed and groundwater-irrigated agriculture In both cases water availability is the decisive factor In Egypt the scarcity of arable land is also a critical factor and climate change-induced urban expansion and soil salinization will further reduce land available for cultivation In addition to basic resource constraints North African agriculture is characterized by significant inefficiencies in crop selection irrigation practices land management and food distribution Even where climate change does not substantially reduce productivity more frequent agricultural disruptions and more variable conditions will substantially increase volatility in agricultural production Population growth and more frequent droughts have already forced increased importation of food—due to its weak agricultural sector Libya already imports three-quarters of its food The region’s cities already face perennial food scarcity and high food prices All of the North African countries except Libya have price subsidies for basic foodstuffs and price increases have been met by food riots The need for price subsidies more food imports and investment in agricultural adaptation will increasingly constrain state budgets in the region Climatic stress may necessitate the substitution of hardier less water-intensive crops such as maize for current staples such as wheat and rice as well as greater reliance on fertilizers and intensive irrigation further straining water resources Although North Africa has high crop yields agriculture remains highly inefficient with substantial potential for gains from mechanization better irrigation and other modern farming techniques Such adaptive measures also will make agriculture less labor-intensive further increasing the already substantial flow of population into North Africa’s cities Agriculture will be less able to act as an employment safety valve for underemployed or seasonally employed unskilled workers Stress on rural communities may lead to civil unrest or encourage radicalization Demographic Challenges Dramatic population growth over the last half century has seriously strained North Africa’s limited resources and inadequate socioeconomic structures Over the next two decades the effects of overpopulation and climate change will pose a mutually reinforcing threat to the region’s water and food resources economies urban infrastructure and sociopolitical systems Harsher climatic conditions are likely to further concentrate population in the limited areas suitable for large-scale habitation Population growth has produced a demographic “youth bulge”—some 60 percent of North Africa’s population is under the age of 25 Fertility rates are declining in North Africa as family planning has improved However over the next two decades the region will have to contend with a large group of people passing through their most economically productive years without adequate employment opportunities Urbanization Rapid urbanization has long been the source of significant disruptions in North Africa and climate change will exacerbate these challenges Although the current level of urbanization varies widely across the region cities across North Africa are 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views experiencing a major influx of population from rural areas 6 Morocco Algeria Egypt and to a lesser degree Tunisia already suffer from overpopulation in their major cities Algeria for example has some of the world’s highest per unit occupancy rates and faces a severe housing shortfall The region’s largest city Cairo is one of the world’s most densely populated urban areas with nearly seven million inhabitants in the city and a further ten million in the surrounding metropolitan area Such concentrations of population will create major problems for Egypt and other North African states in managing water needs and other climatic stress Worse climatic pressure is likely to significantly increase rural-to-urban migration further swelling excessive urban populations Cities in North Africa face over-urbanization and under-urbanism—they have too many rural migrants who are not integrated into urban society or economic structures Climate change will place additional stress on already inadequate urban infrastructure exacerbating water food and housing shortages poor sanitation and water quality and inadequate employment opportunities Urban heat waves will not only threaten public health but will have an adverse effect on economic activity as people stay off the streets Conditions in the region’s burgeoning urban slums “shanty towns” — already incubators for extremism and urban unrest—will face the most degradation Economic Challenges After varying degrees of socialist economic policies in the last century in recent decades most North African states have undergone economic liberalization The trend is toward increased privatization of state-run enterprises diversification from agriculture or petrochemicals into light industry and tourism and greater foreign trade and investment particularly with Europe Economic reforms have often been slow due to large corrupt and inefficient government bureaucracies and entrenched economic interests Economic development has also failed to address major structural economic problems such as high unemployment pervasive poverty a lack of skilled labor and over-dependence on externally determined rents from hydrocarbons phosphates tourism and emigrant remittances Nevertheless the region will likely continue its trajectory toward greater economic liberalization to 2030 With the partial exception of Tunisia living standards among the general public across North Africa have not kept pace with economic growth The centralization of ownership and revenues has concentrated economic benefits among the narrow political and economic elite Gross income inequality is a major source of public disaffection in North African societies The distinction between rich and poor is probably most stark in Morocco and Egypt while Tunisia is more economically equitable if politically repressive Poverty remains a major problem across North Africa reducing state and social capacity and forcing states to subsidize basic necessities—Egypt spends roughly 7 percent of GDP on subsidies a significant drain on the economy 7 Climate change will only further impoverish the region through reduced agricultural productivity overurbanization reduced employment opportunities and higher food and water prices 6 The urban share of the population is 78 percent in Libya 67 percent in Tunisia 65 percent in Algeria 56 percent in Morocco and only 43 percent in Egypt 7 Some 23 percent live below the poverty line in Algeria 20 percent in Egypt 15 percent in Morocco and about 7 percent in Libya and Tunisia 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Climate change-induced challenges will cause costly disruptions to North Africa’s economic systems Although the agricultural sector will suffer the most direct effects the massive government expenditures required to head off or cope with climatic challenges will impact economies across the board State investment and subsidies that still underpin much of the region’s economic activity could be jeopardized In addition climate change mitigation will divert resources from programs to address poverty unemployment and poor living conditions such as Morocco’s National Initiative for Human Development INDH Collateral effects such as over-urbanization and sociopolitical unrest will further undermine economic performance Unemployment North Africa’s economic development patterns have failed to generate adequate urban employment for either skilled or unskilled labor Economic growth has focused on non-labor-intensive sectors such as tourism or oil and gas As a result even oil-rich states such as Libya have massive unemployment 8 Unemployment is most severe among the region’s disproportionately large young population In Algeria for example youth unemployment is estimated to be as high as 43 percent—the region’s highest Unemployment statistics do not tell the full story however because they do not account for the region’s rampant underemployment Many of the “employed” only work the equivalent of one or two hours per day and many of the region’s growing number of university graduates are forced to take low-paid jobs far below their skill level Conversely many of the displaced rural laborers moving into the region’s cities lack the educational and technical skills necessary to succeed in a modern urban environment The combination of urban economies incapable of creating adequate employment opportunities and a mass displacement of population from rural areas into cities as a result of climatic stress could create an employment crisis across the region In Egypt the return of up to half a million overseas workers as the Arab Gulf states slowly nationalize their own labor forces will compound the problem Cities like Cairo Casablanca Alexandria Algiers and Oran are already overflowing with thousands of angry and unemployed young men who congregate in ghetto-like environments passing their days leaning on walls with little to no hope of escaping their fate Energy Whereas the economies of Egypt Tunisia and Morocco are a diversified mix of services light industry and agriculture the economies of Libya and Algeria are dependent on oil and natural gas exports 9 Because climate change will not directly impact hydrocarbon extraction unlike agriculture or tourism these countries may prove more economically resilient to challenges that arise over the next 20 years On the other hand they face a grave threat from a likely reduction in hydrocarbon demand from Europe which currently consumes the vast majority of North African hydrocarbon exports Climate change will likely have a mixed impact on other aspects of the region’s energy sector More unreliable and infrequent rainfall will reduce the potential for hydroelectric power in the Atlas Mountains On the other hand the potential for wind and solar energy may increase 8 Unemployment is 30 percent in Libya 14 percent in Tunisia 12 5 percent in Algeria 10 percent in Morocco and 8 5 percent in Egypt 9 Hydrocarbons account for over 95 percent of export earnings and between a quarter and a third of GDP in Algeria and Libya 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Tourism The expansion of tourism is an important aspect of economic growth and diversification in the region particularly in Tunisia Morocco and Egypt An ambitious plan to expand tourism over the next two decades is intended to provide a major source of revenue in the region contributing significantly to spending on social development Morocco for example has plans to develop six large new coastal resorts and boost tourism to 20 percent of GDP surpassing agriculture In addition Morocco is becoming a popular location for Europeans to purchase holiday homes Libya also plans to dramatically increase tourism and Muammar al-Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam has sponsored a “green” tourism project in Cyrenaica Climate change poses a particularly acute threat to the tourism sector since tourists will quickly elect to go elsewhere in the face of harsher conditions such as water scarcity and increased temperatures In addition tourist-oriented development is highly resource-intensive For example tourists consume far more water than local inhabitants and are far less likely to accept austerity measures As climatic stress becomes more severe the disproportionate resource allocation to foreign tourists is likely to cause increasing tension with local populations It is already becoming an issue in Morocco’s tourist centers such as Marrakesh and Fes Medina Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Social Adaptive Capacity North Africans have long lived close to the land and harbor no illusions about the challenges of contending with natural ecosystems Over the centuries they have responded adeptly to drought locusts desertification and water scarcity In recent decades North African society has changed significantly in response to social economic political technological and religious dynamics It is unlikely that the next twenty years will see any less dynamism The fact that the region is perceived as relatively static testifies to civil society’s ability to adapt to or mitigate new conditions without fundamental disruptions On the other hand North Africa scores poorly on most social metrics linked to adaptive capacity North African society is marked by a rigidity and brittleness that comes from underdeveloped civil societies and economies dominated by highly articulated authoritarian states Sources of revenue and employment and channels of social and political expression are constrained to a few systemic avenues making them vulnerable to critical failures Moreover the predominance of the state is likely to inhibit or overshadow adaptation at the level of civil society The level of human and social capital in North Africa has historically been relatively low Tunisia has a substantial educated cosmopolitan middle class but its social potential is inhibited by intense political repression Social capital is nevertheless on an upward trajectory in North Africa Education and literacy have expanded dramatically in Libya and are improving in the other countries as well although Morocco lags with only a 52 percent literacy rate 10 North Africa is producing more university graduates and educational and professional opportunities for women have also improved Although improvements in higher education have not been mirrored by improved employment opportunities educational trends suggest that the region will have a greater level of 10 Literacy is 82 percent in Libya 74 percent in Tunisia 71 percent in Egypt 70 percent in Algeria and 52 percent in Morocco Similarly Libyans spend an average of 17 years in school comparable to Europe while the figure is 14 years in Tunisia 13 in Algeria and only 10 years in Morocco 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views human capital that could potentially be applied to climate change adaptation and mitigation over the next two decades In addition many North African citizens exhibit a level of sociopolitical consciousness that creates the potential for social activism and political engagement given a lessening of state repression Awareness of Climate Change The technocratic elite and intelligentsia in North Africa are aware of the global debate on climate change and especially the high level of attention to the issue in Europe The latest Arab Development Report for example devoted significant attention to climate change It is not clear however to what extent elites have internalized the implications of climate change The prevailing attitude remains opportunistic seeking ways to profit from climate change mitigation Moreover North Africa’s educated and professional classes have learned to keep their opinions limited to “technical” or academic discussions They avoid weighing in on state policy so as not to implicate their governments for lack of foresight in combating the effects of climate change Those who criticize too loudly will not be tolerated at home often their only resort is living and writing from exile Ultimately elite opinion about climate change may depend largely on the degree to which particular groups are or are not insulated from its effects Awareness of climate change as a coherent phenomenon is much more limited among the general populace Nevertheless many in the public are beginning to have to cope with the practical effects of climate change such as water scarcity or higher temperatures on a day-to-day basis Whether they connect increasing hardships to a broader pattern of climate change will depend to a large extent on how the state-controlled media frame the issue In addition although domestic media in North Africa are strictly controlled by the regimes there is wide access to satellite television channels such as al-Jazeera Such outlets provide a means to circumvent state censorship and propaganda and allow citizens to hear alternative perspectives Al-Jazeera and other international Arabic-language media could play a significant role in raising awareness of regional climate change and highlighting deficiencies in state responses Nevertheless an increase in social awareness of climate change is not likely to produce major change due to the lack of capacity for broad public opinion to decisively influence state policy Civil Society and the State North African sociopolitical systems are characterized both by the decisive dominance of the state and by a deep divide between civil society and the state’s ruling elite Wealth privilege and power are overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of a relative few The attitudes and interests of these ruling elites will determine state policy on climate change as on all other issues Broader civil society across North Africa has been marginalized and suppressed Since independence many social groups have formed associations and social movements and engaged the state across a variety of socioeconomic cultural and political issues In Egypt there are hundreds of registered nongovernmental organizations NGOs Such groups are co-opted by the state and tolerated only so long as they do not criticize the state or challenge state domination of the political discourse As a result civil society groups have been largely ineffectual and have minimal ability to influence policy This has led to a pervasive sense of social powerlessness in the face of the state and a corresponding over reliance on state responses to challenges 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Climate change-induced challenges could galvanize NGOs and civil society to mobilize and advocate for reform but such actors are unlikely to change the sociopolitical status quo Ultimately change in North Africa will in most cases depend on concerned groups garnering support from champions within the ruling elite In Libya for example Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam has promoted green development programs Nevertheless activism on climatic issues could strengthen the capacity of civil society over time particularly where civil groups respond more effectively than the state Civil groups may be more effective in responding directly to climate change-induced challenges at the grass-roots level than in attempting to influence state policy The state however will set the parameters for how much civil activism is permitted North African states presently remain strongly intolerant of direct or even indirect criticism of state policy or the ruling elite Based on present political trends an evolution toward greater openness and tolerance seems probable in Morocco and Algeria but less likely in Tunisia or Libya However current state attitudes are not a reliable indicator of how state-civil society relations may develop over the next 20 years Periods of openness and repression in the region have been cyclical and unpredictable For example Tunisia was fairly open in the 1960s and 1970s but is now the region’s most repressive regime In contrast Algeria has moved from tight control to a comparatively active civil society with regular strikes and challenges to the state Civil Responses to Climate Change To a large extent the response of groups within North African civil society to climate change will be driven by how the state responds Most civil responses to climate change are likely to manifest at the individual or local level—for instance farmers changing planting schedules or irrigation methods and urbanites conducting more business at night to avoid the heat The state is likely to inhibit social mobilization for larger-scale responses If the state is able to respond effectively civil society is likely to remain quiescent The track record of states in the region however suggests that their responses to climate change-induced challenges may in many cases be deficient or seriously disruptive of civil society State responses may involve large-scale disruption of social structures or local communities such as by forcing relocation out of threatened areas or out of the way of public works projects Since states in North Africa are largely organized for the benefit of narrow elites the state’s response is likely to focus on mitigation measures that benefit those groups State responses and resource allocation decisions that manifestly disadvantage or disrupt some segments of society while benefiting others are likely to provoke civil dissatisfaction that may manifest in political unrest radicalization or social mobilization An acute state failure to address climate change that results in intolerable conditions for significant segments of the population may constitute a sociopolitical tipping point in essence a breaking of the social compact between North African states and civil society At that point civil actors may determine that fundamental systemic change is necessary The results of such a situation will depend on the specific reactions by state elites and by the public reform repression or revolution are all possibilities A combination of climatic stress and inadequate state responses over the next two decades could prove the catalyst for a major sociopolitical shift in North Africa On the other hand North Africans tend to hold a religiously based view that “what will be will be ” Owing to this 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views fatalistic mindset North Africans are unlikely to blame the state for climate related stresses making it more difficult to attain the aforementioned tipping point Islamism Climate change-induced challenges over the next 20 years will provide a major opportunity for Islamist groups to step up as both effective civil responders and political challengers to North Africa’s state elite Islamist groups have emerged as the only viable opposition force because they have resisted state cooptation and because the state has blocked other avenues for social mobilization In addition they have established a track record of effective humanitarian responses to mudslides earthquakes and other natural disasters often providing immediate medical shelter and food aid that are normally the responsibilities of the state In many cases Islamist groups may fill the void left by inadequate state responses or the weakness of other types of potential civil responders Moderate Islamist groups could play a constructive role providing highly visible humanitarian assistance that empowers autonomous civil actors and contrasts with ineffectual state responses thus pressuring state actors to respond more effectively Moderate Islamists could use the climate change mitigation issue to bolster their argument that existing North African governments are illegitimate and exploitative creating momentum for political reform On the other hand Islamic extremists across the region may exploit climate change’s destabilizing impacts and ineffective state responses to promote the spread of militancy and anti-regime violence Indeed Islamist militants could point to climate-induced catastrophes as evidence of God’s wrath against “apostate regimes” whose un-Islamic behavior has plunged the region into desperate circumstances Alternatively climate change could be cast as yet another outrage perpetrated by the West an argument Usama Bin Ladin has made in the past Moreover Islamic extremist groups could take advantage of dire socioeconomic conditions to recruit more followers particularly among disaffected youth in the shanty towns of Morocco and Algeria The concentration of unattached unemployed young men in overstressed North African cities as well as disaffected marginalized rural communities under acute climatic stress will provide ideal recruiting grounds for extremists Internal Migration Climatic stress will add to the already substantial movement of population from rural areas into cities exacerbating the region’s serious urban challenges For the most part such migration is unlikely to differ in kind from existing rural-to-urban migration patterns It will generate higher unemployment further strain on urban resources further expansion of shanty towns and increased social friction The decisive question will be whether increased migration reaches an urban tipping point after which the region’s cities begin to suffer critical failures of infrastructure services economy and society In turn that may depend on the manner and degree to which the state intervenes to sustain urban systems Climate change-induced migration may also include patterns other than persistent ruralto-urban migration In Morocco for example cyclical fluctuations in agricultural production have produced a corresponding cyclical migration back and forth between rural and urban areas To the extent that climatic impacts exhibit a similar fluctuation in intensity they may produce similar transient migration In addition differential climatic impacts in particular areas may drive rural populations to migrate into new rural areas 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views with more abundant resources and less climatic stress Because such areas are bound to already be inhabited such movements are almost certain to cause resource conflicts and extend the collateral effects of climate change even into less directly affected areas In addition the combination of water scarcity and stress on marginal agriculture could drive more Berber-speakers into Arab-speaking coastal communities creating a potential for ethnic conflict Prospects for Civil Conflict Climate change-induced challenges have great potential to aggravate North Africa’s existing ethnic sectarian and social rivalries potentially generating destabilizing internal conflicts The region’s court systems and other mechanisms for conflict resolution are weak and mechanisms for cooperative interest aggregation have been deliberately suppressed by the state As a result groups under climatic stress are likely to resort to conflict rather than working together At the most essential level climate changeinduced civil conflict will involve conflict for scarce resources such as water arable land food or employment The competition for arable land and water is perhaps the most salient of all issues in the region it also underlies the conflicts in neighboring Darfur Chad Niger and Mauritania Such resource conflicts will often manifest themselves along inherent cleavages or fracture lines in North African societies In the face of climatic stress and resource competition social groups are likely to fall back on primordial ties of family tribe and religion Ethnic sectarian and sociopolitical differences which in their own might not lead to outright conflict may be far more contentious when mobilized as expressions of underlying resource conflicts The most likely and obvious avenue for civil conflict in North Africa is the ongoing regional struggle between secular and fundamentalist elements within Islam and by extension between radical Islam and the state Climate change-induced challenges over the next two decades may well play to the advantage of militant groups As previously noted climate change and inadequate state or secular responses to it may be readily incorporated into Islamist groups’ complex of grievances Climatic challenges will divert the resources and attention of the state as well as potentially further discrediting it while creating conditions favorable to radicalization and jihadist recruitment In Egypt sectarian conflict also could arise between Muslims and Coptic Christians as desperate socioeconomic conditions take a toll on a population in search of scapegoats Some 9 percent of Egypt’s population is Coptic the region’s only sizable religious minority Although North Africa is not an ethnically diverse region an important cultural faultline exists between predominantly coastal Arab-speakers and the Berber-speaking groups of the interior The Maghreb states have made repeated efforts to assimilate or suppress the culture and language of the Berber-speakers In Algeria this has led to confrontations between Berber groups such as the Kabyles of the central Atlas Mountains and the government Because they are concentrated in marginal areas such as the Saharan oases and the Atlas Mountains Berbers are likely to suffer disproportionate climatic stress This could exacerbate clashes with the state or with Arab-speaking groups particularly in combination with migration Berber identity could become a rallying point for broader socioeconomic or environmental grievances 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Setting aside ethnic and sectarian divisions the divide between the ruling social economic and political elite and the public at large has obvious potential to define climate change-inspired grievances The region’s weak social contracts have always implicitly distinguished between the privileged and the masses and elites are likely both to suffer the least and receive the most state assistance in the face of climate change A major climate change-induced disparity in conditions resource access and state assistance could generate rioting anti-state violence and even a revolutionary atmosphere Because it is directly threatening to the ruling elite conflict along socioeconomic lines is even more likely than other forms of civil unrest to prompt a swift and violent state response The greatest socioeconomic disparities and therefore the greatest potential for class-oriented conflict are found in Morocco and Egypt Prospects for Social Collapse Although social collapse facilitated by environmental degradation has taken place in Darfur and to some extent in the Horn of Africa climate change to 2030 is very unlikely to prompt a general structural collapse of North African societies Both cities and rural areas will face acute stress but the preponderant role of the state is likely to mitigate failures of social institutions and maintain a minimal level of social order Nevertheless patterns of urbanization and migration probably will create widespread disruption and attenuation of existing societal structures whether family community or clan The growing prevalence of young unemployed men without families in urban centers creates conditions for social atomization and the creation of new social structures such as radical networks or gangs Under such conditions a serious climate change-induced crisis such as an acute water or food shortage could lead to localized social collapses within shanty towns or in marginal hinterland territories The response of the state to such a localized crisis will be the key consideration—the failure of social support structures would create abject dependence on the state Absent a robust state response such a situation could lead to rioting a surge in internal migration or the rise of alternative service providers such as Islamist groups State Responses All five North African states have similar political systems Regardless of the differing trappings of monarchy revolutionary heritage or republicanism all are governed in an authoritarian fashion by autocratic elites All five states are highly centralized with final authority concentrated within a small elite group The state maintains a predominant position relative to civil society and the public using coercion and consensus to achieve social acceptance of the existing system Although the level of repression varies between states with Tunisia and Libya the most extreme and has varied cyclically over time authoritarian regimes are well entrenched in every state in the region Each of the five North African states is headed by a leader who promotes a cult of personality to serve as the legitimizing instrument for his rule the most extreme examples being President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Muammar Qadhafi of Libya The essential authoritarian character of North Africa’s political systems is not likely to change over the next 20 years even if other circumstances in the region shift significantly Climate change seems unlikely to be a catalyst for political reform The region’s authoritarian regimes have weathered the international and domestic challenges and dynamism of the past half century and are likely to persist through 2030 although perhaps in a weakened and unstable form 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views State Decision-Making State policy decisions in North Africa are made in the context of very narrow elite interests concentrated at the top of the political pyramid Decision-making is unpredictable because so few people make the decisions While this system subordinates broad public interests to those of a few leaders it also allows the state to rapidly shift gears and mobilize to tackle issues that the key decision-makers identify as critical priorities State Priorities The consolidation and maintenance of political and economic power by the ruling elite trumps all other state priorities State elites are determined to sustain their authority at any human financial social or political cost To the extent that climatic factors generate major threats to regime survival in North Africa they will attract resources and attention The central concern of state leaders however is more likely to be controlling the sociopolitical implications of climatic challenges rather than mitigating the problems themselves Their approach may therefore overemphasize security responses rather than holistic social political economic and environmental ones Adherence to legal niceties and international agreements will be contingent on the requirements of regime security The gap between what North African states are legally committed to and what they actually do remains wide and is expanding On the other hand North African states have always faced resource constraints and environmental challenges so awareness of the need to manage such issues is high in the region Resource management and dealing with environmental challenges are recognized priorities that will receive state attention even if they do not rise to the level of major challenges Elite Attitudes Toward Climate Change Ruling elites in North Africa do not see climate change as an immediate threat to their authority They therefore feel free to take an opportunistic attitude toward climate change supporting climate change mitigation policies that have collateral economic or political benefits to their particular interests By the same token elites are aware that concern over the environment and climate change plays well internationally particularly in Europe making green initiatives and climate change mitigation politically advantageous In addition elites are conscious of the potential for climate change-induced civil unrest and socioeconomic instability and have an incentive to take measures to diffuse them They are highly unlikely to countenance measures that involve broad social mobilization or social disruption both of which are potential threats to their political security Generational turnover in leadership over the next 20 years is unlikely to decisively alter underlying elite attitudes and objectives For example younger leaders such as King Mohammed VI in Morocco and Muammar Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam in Libya have shown interest in environmental and climate issues Their policies however have exhibited the same political calculus and are rooted in the same authoritarian system as their antecedents State Capacity North African states have historically proven able to withstand sustained environmental political social and economic changes and challenges State structures in the region have been so resilient that the resulting perception of political stasis has masked the region’s dynamism in other areas The extraordinary tenacity of North African regimes provides a reserve of state resilience that has allowed them to maintain power in defiance 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views of expectations This resilience has not necessarily translated into effectiveness in tackling national and regional challenges however State capacity in areas other than regime security has often proven inadequate and unresponsive Be it Morocco’s Makhzen or Algeria’s “Le Pouvoir ” the entrenched and ossified political system has produced stagnation and an inherent inability to develop and implement necessary reforms The state bureaucracy lacks latent reserves of dynamism ingenuity or the institutional capacity to rise to the challenges presented by climate change In addition to the direct implications for future responses to climate change ineffective state action on a wide range of other issues has created a host of competing deficiencies which will divert already limited state resources The dominance of the state sector means that North African states have control over a large proportion of national resources which taken in aggregate are considerable The centralization of control of national resources under the state is accompanied by intense politicization of resource allocation Scarce resources such as water are allocated according to political favoritism and patronage systems rather than need or rational distribution These allocation decisions made by a few elite actors may have a greater impact on scarcity and efficiency of use than direct climatic effects On the other hand this central control should allow North African states to undertake large-scale civil engineering and climate change mitigation Governments of these states have shown the capacity to successfully tackle massive civil infrastructure projects particularly in the area of water resource management—critical to climate change mitigation Egypt’s Aswan High Dam and Libya’s Great Man-Made River are examples of the types of projects that will be increasingly necessary over the next 20 years Egypt has launched the New Valley Project to divert water from Lake Nasser to irrigate the Toshka Depression in the Sahara significantly expanding the country’s agricultural land and living space by 2020 The efforts expended on such ambitious projects however have not always been matched by sensible planning—Libya’s failed attempt at irrigated oasis agriculture at Al Kufra is one example States in the region may prove far less able to tackle the sustained widely distributed impacts of climate change on their populations than in responding with massive civil engineering projects North African states have shown longstanding inability or unwillingness to respond to public needs and provide services The prevailing systems of patronage and corruption inhibit state institutions from functioning in a consistent professional manner The wide state-society divide creates state institutions that are not accustomed to being responsive to public concerns and grievances North African governments have instead shown a tendency to react to public grievances by attempting to avoid or suppress them rather than address them These deficiencies are unlikely to improve over the next two decades and may be worsened under increasing resource pressure This could become a serious source of destabilization as climate change causes serious public grievances to proliferate Climate Change Mitigation and Development Planning Most climate change mitigation in North Africa will be undertaken as a result of discrete decisions in response to specific climatic impacts rather than as a result of holistic mitigation planning Mitigation measures will vary down to individual areas and communities within states as well as differing according to the specific perspectives of 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the elite decision-makers who champion them Nevertheless because of the region’s perennial resource scarcity North African states are accustomed to conducting significant amounts of development planning Development planning infrastructure design criteria and economic policies over the next two decades will be forced to take the impacts of climate change into account The future viability of North African development plans will depend on whether climate change produces incremental changes in conditions or a radical discontinuity In addition North African development models from the colonial period to the present have emphasized water-intensive economic activities such as inefficiently irrigated agriculture tourism phosphate processing and light manufactures Plans for future development build on this legacy with particular emphasis on European tourism Hotels resorts and golf courses create very high hydrologic demands climate change may not be reconcilable with this development model For countries such as Morocco Tunisia and Egypt where tourism is a key component of the economy pressures to alter development patterns that reduce water usage limit building expansion on arable land or suspend highway construction will be very difficult Libya’s nascent tourism industry has far fewer vested interests in existing patterns and Libya is developing “green” tourism in Cyrenaica Water resource management will be the most important aspect of climate change mitigation in North Africa North African states are accustomed to sustained water resource constraints and have institutional experience planning for and managing water resources One likely response is more investment in desalinization plants as the increased costs of scarce water makes them more economically viable Libya is already investing significantly in desalinization research and other states are likely to follow suit All North African states will need to significantly upgrade urban water infrastructure The Maghreb states are likely to increase construction of reservoirs dams and other water management infrastructure in the Atlas watershed Additional states are likely to follow Libya’s example and invest in major infrastructure projects to tap into Saharan aquifers In Egypt water management infrastructure projects on the Nile are likely to be expanded Mega-projects such as the New Valley Project will need to be carefully assessed in terms of gains in arable land versus strain on water resources Although North African farmers have proven adept at adapting individually many of the problems agriculture will face will require major state-level intervention and investment To mitigate harsher and more variable growing conditions states will need to update rural infrastructure particularly irrigation systems encourage and subsidize crop substitution away from rice and wheat toward more temperature and water stress-resistant crops such as maize and adopt more efficient land use patterns Overall maintaining the agricultural sector will take a larger share of state budgets As climate changeinduced disruptions increase volatility in production and prices states will need to increase market intervention to stabilize and subsidize prices and supplies or face widespread social unrest Increasing dependence on food imports will eat into state revenues One of the most complex aspects of climate change mitigation will be addressing the expected growth and climatic stress on North Africa’s cities North African states have been ineffective in managing urbanization Since state policies will focus on the needs of the privileged and of foreign visitors the wide disparity in levels of infrastructure 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views services and standards of living between districts in the region’s cities will likely worsen As state resources become increasingly tight the shanty towns may receive only the bare minimum of development attention Because North Africa is not a major direct contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions it faces less international pressure than other regions to mitigate the causes of climate change Libya and Algeria however are major suppliers of fossil fuels to Europe so their indirect contribution to European emissions is considerable Oil and gas production are essential to economic development in Libya and Algeria and these countries have no interest in limiting exports in order to curb emissions Indeed they will do as much as possible to sustain rather than diminish consumer dependence on hydrocarbons European policy will ultimately determine how the contribution of North African oil and gas to global emissions is addressed Social Control The implications of climate change in North Africa—notably migration stress on both rural and urban areas unemployment and increased resource competition—are likely to generate volatile sociopolitical conditions that will pose significant threats to the existing political structure The responses of North African states to these threats may be more decisive for the fate of the region than their direct responses to climate change impacts North African states have robust capacity to maintain social control in the face of domestic challenges and destabilization Regimes depend on a combination of entrenched patronage systems robust mukhabarat security apparatuses and the support of external allies—a combination that has proven highly effective at maintaining political control They have a track record of effectively suppressing dissent and unrest or remaining resilient where unrest has persisted such as the civil conflict in Algeria States in the region may seek to suppress or distort information on climate change-related challenges They seek to control access to any information that could provide a basis for opposition to the state even information as seemingly innocuous as census data The proliferation of new media and alternative information sources however will make it difficult to maintain such censorship North African regimes are also adept at deflecting blame and policy failures may be attributed to sub-ministerial-level bureaucratic scapegoats or foreigners In addition all states except Libya have exploited so-called “democratic elections” as a way to demonstrate to their own people and outside observers that they are responsive to rising expectations and accountable to the public State-civil society relations in the region are cyclical and specific dynamics will vary between states Overall however increased climatic pressure to 2030 is unlikely to facilitate moves toward greater openness reform of political institutions or democratization Climate change-induced increases in unemployment derailment of economic progress and increased public disaffection will make it less “safe” for elites to allow the public more voice North African states may instead respond to this challenge with widespread repression human rights violations and suppression of civil society NGOs independent media and other dissenting voices Security forces are more likely to be used to suppress civil reactions to climatic crises rather than to provide humanitarian support More states are likely to adopt Tunisia’s practice of systematically isolating opposing and ultimately eliminating any opposition In the process they are 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views likely to damage overall adaptive capacity by inhibiting constructive contributions by civil actors Prospects for State Failure North African states are far more likely to face conditions of pervasive instability than instances of outright state failure The same factors accounting for state resilience that have allowed regimes to persist and even strengthen for decades despite perennial predictions of collapse are likely to forestall systemic state failure to 2030 In addition to robust internal security capabilities which can be mobilized to suppress unrest brought about by climatic crises North Africa’s European partners will step in to prevent state failure The dynamics of shifting factions and interest groups further mitigate the potential for collapse States may respond to stress with coups or factional “regime changes” that rearrange the leadership hierarchy without altering the underlying political system Ultimately the state system is likely to persist as long as the regime connections wasta and patronage networks continue to secure the loyalty of the elite classes the military and the security services The stress associated with climate change coupled with an ineffective government response could nevertheless significantly undermine the social fabric and state institutions The state-society divide remains wide and deep with the potential for civil unrest and political instability always present A severe climatic crisis combined with other acute challenge could potentially bring about partial of state failure While regimes may remain in power by force even while public services governance and most institutional state functions fail the implications for the population and socioeconomic system would be dire Under this scenario there may be swaths of territory that are ungoverned “no-go” zones in urban areas and huge segments of the population living in abject poverty Failed-state conditions may prevail in certain areas while the state as a whole continues to function at a reduced level If the state and existing socioeconomic systems are unable or unwilling to provide basic services people will turn to alternative sources Examples in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere suggest that a combination of Islamist organizations tribal or clan militias and criminal networks are likely to step in to compensate for the lack of state-provided services The most likely alternatives are Islamist groups which in some areas already have become the main service providers Regional Implications North Africa in many respects comprises two distinct regions the Maghreb Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya as well as Mauritania and Western Sahara on the one hand and Egypt as well as Sudan on the other Whereas the Maghreb looks to Europe Egypt is oriented more toward the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula Turkey is the development model for Egypt not Western Europe The dialects dress and lifestyles are different—in the Maghreb people eat couscous in Egypt they eat bread Egypt’s hydrology and agricultural practices are markedly different from those of the Maghreb As a result the two sub-regions will face differing types of climatic mechanisms In sum there is much that divides Northwest from Northeast Africa and relatively little that unites the two subregions 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Prospects for Regional Cooperation Interstate relations in North Africa are characterized by competition and rivalry rather than cooperation For example the border between Morocco and Algeria has been closed since the mid-1990s due to continued sparring over Western Sahara States in the region tend to view regional challenges such as climate change and environmental degradation in zero-sum terms They rarely adhere to the diverse legal arrangements treaties and constitutional provisions that commit them to cooperation on environmental protection desertification illegal immigrants and other issues The lack of regional cooperation is a major limitation on the region’s overall capacity to confront climate change-induced challenges Ideally North African states could respond to the challenges of climate change by setting up critical regional institutions to foster cooperation and the adopting joint policy responses North African states enjoy complementarities in terms of distribution of natural and human resources—Tunisia providing human capital Libya and Algeria possessing significant hydrocarbon reserves and Morocco and Egypt serving as major agricultural producers Cooperating while playing to their comparative advantages would enhance regional adaptive capacity Climate change is one of the few cross-cutting issues with the potential to spur more serious efforts at regional cooperation In the same way that a common threat from Iran and Iraq prompted the states of the Persian Gulf to form the GCC a common threat from climate change could facilitate regional integration in North Africa While climate change-induced challenges might promote greater horizontal cooperation across North Africa however they are more likely to increase interstate competition and conflict The regional bias in favor of competition self-interest and mutual suspicion among state leaders and pressure from resource scarcity work against the development of a cooperative approach Regional Integration To date regional integration in North Africa has been an elusive goal despite a common culture language religion and set of environmental challenges Initiatives such as the Arab Maghreb Union AMU have stalled due to a combination of civil unrest economic turmoil and interstate tensions Established in 1989 with the aim of working toward a common market and coordinated economic policies the AMU is modeled in part on the European Common Market and in part on the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC of the Persian Gulf Of the various African and Arab multilateral organizations it comes closest to encompassing the region of interest including Morocco Algeria Tunisia and Libya as well as Mauritania but excluding Egypt Other regional institutions such as the African Union the League of Arab States or the Tripoli Charter among Egypt Libya and Sudan offer even less promise as bases for regional integration Prospects for genuine regional integration will likely remain poor over the next two decades In any case multilateral institutions are very unlikely to be sufficiently empowered to play a significant role in addressing climate change in the region North Africa and Europe The most important regional relationship for the Maghreb states is with Europe particularly the Southern European states of France Spain and Italy Geographically Southern Europe is nearly as close to the population centers in the region as those countries are to each other Egypt is a separate case with stronger ties to the United States and the Middle East than to Europe This difference reflects the division between 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the eastern and western Mediterranean basins which has persisted since ancient times Past colonial ties continue to dictate the relative weight of relations between individual European and Maghreb states—France is closely tied to Algeria Tunisia and Morocco Spain to Morocco and Italy to Libya Beyond the legacy of colonialism the European Union EU pursues a “hub and spoke” approach to engagement forging individual ties with each Maghreb state rather than treating the region as a whole This encourages a “stovepipe” pattern of relations in which the Maghreb states compete with each other to build ties to Europe rather than building up cooperative capacity within North Africa This approach both decreases North Africa’s leverage vis-à-vis Europe and inhibits movement toward regional cooperation Although Europe has the influence to promote North African regional cooperation its policies tend to have the opposite effect— potentially to the detriment of both regions In many respects the states of the Maghreb have closer relations with Europe than they do with each other They tend to look north to Europe for largesse and solutions rather than laterally to their neighbors Although the bulk of the Maghreb’s trade and foreign investment is oriented toward Europe in many respects the economic linkage is a shallow one centered on European tourism as well as North African energy and agricultural exports Despite Europe’s demographic decline and North Africa’s labor surplus European business engagement with North Africa is relatively modest in part due to inadequate levels of human capital In response to illegal immigration drug trafficking and terrorism security ties have grown much more robust in recent decades this trend is likely to continue through 2030 Cooperation on Climate Change Mitigation Although Southern Europe and the Maghreb may face similar climatic changes over the next two decades their different sociopolitical systems will produce divergent collateral challenges Nevertheless the prospects for cooperation with Europe in addressing climate change-induced challenges are better than those for cooperation between North African states Europe’s main interest lies in preventing spillover from climate change-induced instability in North Africa principally in terms of migration but also access to energy terrorism and transnational crime As with the North African states themselves Europe’s concern for direct climate change mitigation in North Africa is overshadowed by the need to address the security challenges arising from climate change Nevertheless Europe advocates strongly for greater policy sensitivity to climate change in North Africa and is likely to provide large and comprehensive climate change mitigation aid packages to its North African partners Ultimately Europe has a strong interest in averting state failures or social collapses in North Africa and has the resources to step in to prevent such developments In the event of climatic-induced crises European intervention may constitute the last line of defense of the North African state Regional Energy Issues Libya Algeria and to a lesser extent Egypt are major energy suppliers to Europe and are likely to remain so to 2030 Although Europe is likely to reduce its dependence on oil in an effort to curtail greenhouse gas emissions demand for natural gas is likely to increase as an alternative All three North African energy producers have substantial natural gas reserves particularly Algeria Europe has a strong interest in expanding gas ties with North Africa to diversify its gas supply away from dependence on Russia Europe’s energy relationship with North Africa will become 28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views more hardwired as additional gas pipelines to Spain and Italy come online over the next two decades As with other aspects of trans-Mediterranean relations North African states have competed more than cooperated with each other in pipeline construction In addition to natural gas North Africa has the potential to become an exporter of solar or wind-generated electricity to Europe Construction of solar arrays in cloud-free North Africa connected to Europe via high tension power lines could become a second energy link between the two regions Besides the direct energy benefits Europe could situate solar energy projects in non-gas-producing states in order to dilute the threat of energy monopoly Both gas and solar energy development in North Africa would have the collateral effect of providing employment and revenues in the region that might diminish the incentive for emigration to Europe and increase adaptive capacity On the other hand these industries are not labor intensive and the state would appropriate most of the revenues Cross-Border Migration The threat that climate change to 2030 will drive major increases in cross-border migration is one of the principal preoccupations for Europe and the North African states North Africa is both a source of migrants and a transit region for external migrants Both of these dynamics are likely to be significantly expanded by climatic stress in Africa and both are directed primarily at Europe Although migration probably will have less direct adverse impact on North African states than other climatic challenges it is likely to be the principal manifestation of climate change-induced spillover into Europe To date the vast majority of cross-border migration from and through North Africa has been economically or politically driven rather than environmental This pattern will be altered as climate change affects North Africa more significantly but the degree to which it will drive increased migration remains unclear As climate change impacts are felt more strongly in the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa however they will become leading drivers behind the larger African migration pattern northward toward Europe Climate change is likely to render North Africa a less attractive final destination for migrants even as it increases transmigration into Europe High levels of climatic stress and rampant unemployment in the North African states not only are intrinsic deterrents to immigration but will cause states in the region to take more strenuous steps to curb migration For the same reasons sustained climate change-induced challenges are not likely to result in substantial horizontal migration between the North African states Although localized crises might propel transitory intra-regional migration flows North Africans will most likely continue to migrate out of the region rather than within it North African Emigration to Europe North African emigration to Europe much of it illegal is already a major regional dynamic and will only become more so as a consequence of climate change North African immigrants form a major segment of Europe’s Muslim population and North Africa is the primary focus of European concerns about immigration Many North African immigrant communities are now well established and increasingly demographically important in Europe Although the most prominent such community are the Algerians in France Europe also hosts large Moroccan and Tunisian communities Recently migration from Egypt and Libya has also increased While second- and third-generation North African immigrants have 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views moved into professional fields throughout Western Europe recent immigrants still tend to occupy unskilled laboring positions and are mainly concentrated in Southern Europe In addition to permanent migration large numbers of seasonal migrants travel to Southern Europe principally to work in agriculture Spain’s proximity to Morocco and the remaining Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on Morocco’s Mediterranean coast permit a major flow of Moroccan day laborers to Spain The demographic ascension of Europe’s Muslim population is an increasing concern to European governments both in terms of the alteration of European cultural ethnic and religious composition and the threat from Islamic extremism As a result North African immigration is a high-priority security and foreign policy issue for Europe Although not explicitly opposed to immigration European authorities seek to curb illegal immigration and regulate if not reduce legal migration Although the Southern European states could bolster their practical capabilities to interdict illegal immigrants coming across the Mediterranean they are inhibited by legal constraints EU laws and procedures on migration human rights and asylum seekers render it difficult for European countries to turn away African immigrants Because immigrants can claim EU legal protections if they reach EU territory many migrants travel to outlying European territories such as the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla the Canary Islands Lampedusa or Malta North African states have an interest in promoting continued robust emigration to Europe Emigration acts as a “safety valve” to alleviate pressure on resources and employment in North Africa Climate change is expected to significantly exacerbate both of these challenges thus continued emigration will become even more important to North African states over the next 20 years In addition North Africans in Europe provide remittance revenues that play a significant role in North Africa’s economies The challenge for North African states is to overcome European aversion to such migration To that end North African authorities may increasingly seek to manage emigration flows while engaging closely with Europe on migration issues North African states have shown willingness to provide social services and other support for their expatriate communities The trump card in securing European concessions on North African immigration appears to be the even greater European aversion to Sub-Saharan African migration The next 20 years are likely to see a grand bargain between Europe and North Africa on migration In essence such a bargain is likely to involve European acceptance of regulated North African immigration in exchange for North African efforts to curb migration from further south Egyptian emigration is also an important regional issue although it is currently oriented to the east rather than the north Egyptian migrant workers customarily go to the Persian Gulf not Europe Remittances from the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians who work in oil-producing countries constitute Egypt’s single greatest source of foreign exchange In recent years however Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have sought to nationalize their labor force displacing Egyptians and other guest workers with locals Returning migrant workers will swell the ranks of Egypt’s unemployed multiplying the destabilizing effect of climate change on the country Over the next two decades Egyptians are likely to look increasingly toward Europe potentially adding a large demographic boost to migration flows 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Sub-Saharan Migration Although the Sahara Desert represents a substantial barrier to migration it has not prevented a perennial migration flow from the south along traditional routes through the desert oases or along the Nile Current levels of migration from the south are manageable in size but they may increase significantly as a result of climate change The marginal agricultural and pastoral systems of the Sahel—as well as Mauritania and Western Sahara—are already under severe threat from desertification drought overgrazing and overpopulation Over the next two decades populations both in the Sahel and further south in West Africa and Equatorial Africa are likely to suffer severe climatic challenges exacerbated by low levels of state and social adaptive capacity One of the principal climate change-induced concerns in the Sahel is the fate of Lake Chad The lake has been shrinking dramatically for decades due to a combination of human and environmental factors and may disappear altogether as a result of climate change Lake Chad provides water to over 20 million inhabitants of Chad Cameroon Niger and Nigeria Under such conditions North Africa will receive large immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa although the potential magnitude is unclear The direction of migration flows within Sub-Saharan Africa is difficult to predict and many migrants may not attempt to cross the Sahara Climate change particularly water stress on the oases may render the desert even more inhospitable to migrants Large-scale refugee flows in Sub-Saharan Africa such as those resulting from conflicts in the Congo Rwanda and Burundi have tended to move fairly short distances into refugee camps in neighboring countries while the Sahara crossing is approximately 1 000 miles Moreover North African states are already beginning to take harsh action to curtail migration Migrants are often interned under very poor conditions in Saharan oases such as Al Kufra in Libya where they suffer considerable abuse and are prey to the slave trade and other forms of exploitation North African states have also parlayed European fears of mass influxes of Sub-Saharan African migrants into assistance in setting up internment camps increasing border security and implementing deterrent measures such as improved services in countries of origin Libya the main transmigration route has received major funding from Italy for migration control measures 11 Such European assistance is likely to increase considerably through 2030 as a preventive measure even if actual migration flows prove less than anticipated Europe seeks to build a cordon sanitaire against Sub-Saharan African migration in North Africa European states may be willing to turn a blind eye to North African human rights abuses of migrants as long as migration flows are kept under control In addition to interned transit migrants increasing numbers of Sub-Saharan Africans are settling in North Africa either by choice or because their entry into Europe is frustrated Faced with anticipated soaring unemployment and resource constraints North African states have limited capacity to absorb immigrants Expansion of immigrant minorities is likely to worsen social tension and could spark ethnic violence As a result it is in the interest of North African states to pursue a binary outcome in terms of transmigration— either a smooth and continuous flow into Europe or the wholesale prevention of immigration across their southern borders European preferences and aid will drive them 11 Some 70 to 80 percent of the 65 000 to 120 000 annual Trans-Saharan migrants in the Maghreb transit through Libya with the remainder moving through Algeria and Morocco Egypt also receives large numbers of Sudanese migrants 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views toward the latter course which is likely to involve widespread human rights abuses and possible conflict with southern neighbors In addition an influx of Sub-Saharan African migrants into Europe would increase competition with North African migrants Reduced access to employment opportunities in Europe would endanger both revenue from remittances and Europe’s role as a “safety valve” for North African unemployment Prospects for Regional Conflict The anticipated impacts of climate change in North Africa will likely increase the potential for regional conflict particularly over scarce water resources Most North African interstate conflicts are likely to remain localized and bilateral in part because of the great distances between population centers As water grows increasingly scarce competition for trans-border water resources such as the Nile and the underground aquifers of the Sahara will become fiercer and could devolve into outright hostilities Beyond the potential for “water wars ” the legacy of colonial borders in the region has led to a number of territorial disputes including between Libya and Chad over the Aouzou Strip Egypt and Sudan over the Hala’ib Triangle and Morocco and Algeria both over their common border and over the status of Western Sahara The latter is a perennial source of tension between Morocco and Algeria that remains a major obstacle to regional integration and cooperation Tense bilateral relationships could deteriorate further in the face of climate change-induced dislocations Frictions over a number of issues from the activities of Islamist militant groups to illegal immigration flows could lead to a variety of aggressive measures including economic sanctions and even war Although civil conflicts are more likely than interstate conflicts internal disputes have historically not spilled over into neighboring countries The Algerian civil war lasted two decades without major impacts on its neighbors and Western Sahara has endured 35 years of civil war without major impacts except insofar as neighboring states exploit the conflict Nevertheless future internal conflicts might not be as contained as in the past due to the trans-border aspects of climate change such as migration The Sahara and the Sahel There is greater potential for climate change-induced conflict in the Sahel and Sahara than between the states in North Africa The states of the Sahel have far fewer resources and may face more severe climate change-induced challenges that exacerbate existing crises The risks of state failure or serious civil or cross-border conflict are high The conflict in Darfur provides an example of what environmentally driven conflict in the Sahel might look like Mali Niger Chad and even northern Nigeria are likely theaters for climate change-induced conflict Such conflict could easily spill over the extremely porous borders into North Africa’s Saharan south following the flow of refugees The nomadic tribes such as the Tuareg that inhabit the North African-Sahel boundary do not recognize international borders Cross-border smuggling human trafficking and other illegal activity are likely to increase with greater migration and climatic stress The Sahara-Sahel corridor is also likely to host an increased jihadist presence further threatening North African and global security The North African states could be drawn into interventions to secure their southern borders or opportunistically expand their influence in a chaotic Sahel The example of Libya’s wars in Chad illustrates how such adventurism could become a quagmire The Nile Conflict between Egypt and its southern neighbors over the waters of the Nile constitutes the most serious risk of major interstate conflict in the region over the next 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views two decades Ensuring access to Nile waters is a fundamental national security priority for Egypt driving Cairo’s focus to the south rather than toward its western Maghreb neighbors Although Egypt received the lion’s share of Nile water in the 1954 Nile Waters Agreement it has nevertheless used and needed far more than its allotted share This perennial source of friction with Sudan Ethiopia Uganda and other upstream states will worsen if climate change significantly reduces precipitation in the East African Highlands Any upstream efforts to divert more water from the Nile would pose a grave threat to Egypt which Cairo is prepared to deal with forcibly For example realization of Ethiopia’s longstanding plans to dam the Blue Nile would likely provoke Egyptian air strikes Egypt’s position restrains both climate change mitigation and development options across a large swath of East Africa particularly Sudan which may suffer severe climatic impacts Water wars between Egypt and Sudan are a significant risk in the next two decades The probable independence of South Sudan after the 2011 referendum will further complicate control of the Nile Overall Foreign Policy Implications Foreign policy interests in North Africa are first and foremost a function of how such interests can protect and promote the power and privileges of the narrowly based ruling elite As such foreign policy considerations are pursued in a very instrumental fashion regardless of their impact on broader societal concerns The preeminent climate changerelated foreign policy objective for North African regimes over the next two decades will be to develop relationships and access to resources that bolster regime security against climate change-induced instability North African states are therefore likely to adopt more open foreign policies that seek greater engagement with the United States and Europe Despite similar overall foreign policy goals pertaining to climate change mitigation assistance the North African states are not likely to act as a concerted regional bloc Each government will pursue its own foreign policy reflecting its specific interests and orientation often in competition with its neighbors As in other areas the foreign policies of Egypt and of the Maghreb have differing orientations Egypt’s most important relationships are with the United States and the Middle East while the foreign policy of the Maghreb is Euro-centric These distinctions will most likely persist over the next two decades Climate Change Mitigation Assistance Facing severe political economic and social dislocations North African countries will work assiduously to win sweeping aid packages from Western donors Foreign assistance will play a critical role in North Africa’s climate change mitigation efforts over the next two decades compensating for inadequate domestic capacity On the other hand without sufficient oversight foreign aid is likely to fall prey to the same problems that dilute domestic state capacity in the region In addition to financial aid and investment North African states will seek Western technical expertise and technology transfers While the Maghreb states will look primarily to Europe as a source of climate change mitigation aid Egypt will look first to the United States Unlike Sub-Saharan Africa North African states are less engaged with China on development issues 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Barring a major shift in North African elite attitudes states in the region are likely to approach climate change mitigation aid from an opportunistic perspective North African states will try to extract as much as they can from international donors They may not seek the types of foreign assistance directly applicable to their most pressing climatic challenges Instead they are likely to push for security and economic developmentoriented assistance that benefits state and elite interests rather than necessarily mitigating climatic impacts For example hydrocarbon-rich states such as Algeria and Libya will seek compensation for expected losses in income as oil and gas consumers come under increasing pressure to reduce their carbon footprint They may seek financial assistance and technological expertise to develop alternative sources of energy such as solar and wind power In addition North African regimes will seek increased military and security assistance to enhance regime security under the guise of combating climate changeinduced regional and domestic instability As climate change becomes more of a driver of cross-border migration North African states will hold out the need to stem migration flows as a justification for significant increases in climate-related foreign aid They may also demand increased access to European markets as another incentive for North Africans to stay home rather than seek economic opportunity in Europe Because of the direct threat it poses to Europe the migration issue could become the strongest bargaining chip for North African states Depending on the magnitude of climate change-induced migration flows they might resort to outright blackmail threatening to unleash unimpeded flows of migrants unless granted massive amounts of foreign aid In a more general sense they may play the “climate change card ” citing the threat of climate change-induced regional crisis to garner Western aid as they have done with the “terrorism card ” The United States and North Africa Relations between the United States and North Africa have varied widely over time and between states in the region The strongest US relationships are with Morocco and especially Egypt Relations with Tunisia and Algeria are also solid and improving bolstered by cooperation against international terrorism Although relations with Libya remain tenuous the formerly implacable hostility has eased since Libya abandoned its WMD programs and adopted a more conciliatory policy in 2003 Although the evolution of US relations with the North African states over the next 20 years is difficult to predict the challenge of climate change will likely encourage increased engagement To the extent that US relations with all five North African states continue to improve the United States could act as a facilitator for greater regional cooperation For the Maghreb states relations with the United States will most likely continue to be secondary to their relations with Europe States in the region may attempt to leverage competition for regional influence between the United States and Europe particularly France Conversely Egypt is a close ally of the United States with weaker ties to Europe The US stake in Egypt is much greater than in any other country in the region climate change-induced crises in Egypt would impact US interests far more than climate change in the Maghreb Ultimately the differing relationships may encourage a division of labor whereby Europe concentrates on support to the Maghreb and the United States on support to Egypt 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views US Interests in North Africa Over the next two decades climate change is likely to raise the profile of North African instability as a threat to US global interests The principal US interests at stake in the Maghreb are terrorism energy and the region’s potential to destabilize Europe The Maghreb and the Sahara-Sahel corridor constitute a fertile ground for terrorist activity and climate change is likely to significantly exacerbate the threat Ties with North African populations in Europe increase the potential for militants in the Maghreb to threaten key US allies a factor also likely to worsen due to increased migration Although North African energy exports to the United States have become more important in recent years the region is more significant in terms of the energy security of US allies in Europe The Maghreb has the potential not only to export instability to Europe but to absorb a significant share of European attention and resources An unstable Maghreb could therefore make Europe a less reliable and capable ally for the United States The principal US interests in Egypt concern security in the Middle East as opposed to Europe Egypt is a major US ally in the region and a leader in the Arab world playing a crucial role on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the struggle against Islamic extremism Security Relationships Security issues are the primary focus of US relations with North African states The predominance of security and military concerns has led to disproportionate US engagement with security apparatuses in the region strengthening regimes in ways that may damage long-term prospects to meet the challenges of climate change US policy in the region has become even more security-centric as a result of the continuing struggle against radical Islamic terrorism While terrorism has deepened US security ties with states in the region it has also narrowed the scope of US engagement which may not be in the long-term interests of either party As with their bilateral relations with Europe North African states view security cooperation with the United States in terms of regional rivalries North Africa’s governing elites have been more than willing to exploit the US preoccupation with security issues in the region to acquire both military equipment and intelligence information to advance their own security interests To secure greater US support regimes often portray threats that are more criminal such as cross-border activities by Saharan nomads as terrorist-related They may similarly redefine climate change-related unrest and opposition activity as terrorism particularly due to the probable prominent role of Islamist organizations The United States needs to be wary of enabling state repression of actors who might have a constructive impact on climatic challenges and sociopolitical reform Conversely the United States may be able to exploit North African states’ need for greater security assistance due to climate changeinduced instability to increase military access and cooperation Faced with greater security challenges states in the region may be more welcoming of United States African Command AFRICOM and more open to US military operations in North Africa Such access could become critical if jihadists gain a greater foothold in the region US Climate Change Mitigation Assistance The most important contribution the United States can make to North African climate change mitigation probably is the provision of technical expertise Promoting more informed efficient and effective decision-making on infrastructure resource allocation and development planning will act as a force 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views multiplier for both financial aid and domestic regional capacity In addition to direct climate change mitigation assistance overall increases in development assistance and investment will boost regional adaptive capacity In the longer term promoting North African economic development is a more effective means of providing the resources needed to address climate change than simply continuing foreign aid Bolstering the region’s economies will spur infrastructure development and job creation directly addressing climate change-induced unemployment and other deleterious impacts At the same time the United States could incentivize more sustainable development patterns suited to the constraints climate change will impose on the region The United States can provide development advice and assistance in a wide range of critical areas ranging from health to agriculture In most respects US assistance will most likely parallel that from Europe—a mix of foreign aid packages investment and technical assistance There are a number of areas however in which the United States has comparative advantages relative to Europe in the kinds of assistance it can provide The region’s most critical needs in terms of climate change mitigation assistance are in water resource management The inefficiency of existing water management infrastructure is a major contributor to the region’s vulnerability to climate change The United States far more so than Europe has long experience dealing with water resource issues that could be shared with North African countries The American Southwest is hydrologically comparable to North Africa and could provide an instructive model for water resource management and irrigation policies in both the Maghreb and Egypt In addition unlike Europe the United States can offer North Africa genetically modified crops that could dramatically improve agricultural adaptive capacity The downside is that European restrictions on such crops would close European markets to North African exports On the other hand introduction of genetically modified crops could significantly mitigate domestic food security issues in the region Although efforts to raise awareness of climate change engage with civil society and promote political and social reforms also could produce beneficial results the effectiveness of such efforts will be determined by how sensitive they are to the sociopolitical realities of the region North African states are adept at circumventing Western political pressures involving human rights abuses democracy promotion and other liberalizing measures in civil society They are hostile to intrusions into their internal affairs particularly the delicate issue of state-society relations The United States should not expect North African states to subordinate regime security and elite selfinterest to climate change mitigation There could be a backlash from states in the region that could damage mitigation efforts and relations with the United States as a whole For example public relations campaigns to raise climate change awareness could easily be perceived as critical of local regimes for their inaction and ineffective responses and of elites for contributing to unsustainable development Similarly empowering NGOs and civil actors and promoting other forms of social mobilization could be viewed as threatening by North African regimes even if directed at mitigating climatic challenges The Copenhagen Negotiations North Africa is unlikely to play a substantive role in the Copenhagen climate change negotiations The region is not a significant global source of greenhouse gas emissions 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views and has more to gain from engagement with Europe on the climate issue than from a global agreement In general North African states are likely to go along with the overall position adopted by the G-77 In addition Libya and Algeria can be expected to push for compensation for prospective losses in hydrocarbon revenues under a more stringent emissions regime 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Southeast Asia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2010-02 January 2010 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-04 June 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determines whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States • In the final phase the NIC’s Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security In July 2009 a group of regional experts convened to explore the socio-political challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Southeast Asia through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists economists and political scientists While the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030 the perceptions of decision makers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate To support research by the NIC on the National Security Impacts of Global Climate Change this assessment on the climate change impacts on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands through 2030 is being delivered under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the CIA’s Office of the Chief Scientist 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States held on July 21 2009 brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Southeast Asia from a social political and economic perspective The workshop focused on Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Thailand the Philippines Malaysia Singapore and Burma The panelists concluded that Southeast Asia faces a greater threat from existing manmade environmental challenges than from climate change to 2030 • The impact of dam building on the Mekong River Basin poses a potential catastrophic threat to agriculture fisheries and human habitation in Cambodia and Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Disruption of the Lower Mekong will pose a greater near-term challenge to mainland Southeast Asia than global climate change • Unsustainable development practices such as deforestation and overfishing threaten to bring about the near-term collapse of vital regional ecosystems including the tropical forests and the fisheries of the South China Sea • Massive manmade forest fires threaten the environment and public health across the region and are major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions While the states of Southeast Asia will face similar threats from climate change to 2030 the severity of the threats will vary both between and within states • The region will face a serious water management challenges as climate change renders water resources more unreliable Both urban areas—such as Bangkok Dili Kula Lumpur Manila and Singapore—and rural areas across the region may face threats from water scarcity flooding and storms • Food security is already a problem in many Southeast Asian states including the Philippines Laos Cambodia Burma and Indonesia The most at-risk areas for climatic or environmental disruption are “rice basket” regions that feed not only the rest of their countries but others in the region as well The most serious of which is Vietnam’s Mekong Delta which feeds as much as half the country’s population Climate change will increase prospects for conflicts within states Disruptions to traditional lifestyles water and food stress and more frequent or more severe natural disasters will destabilize Southeast Asian societies and increase social tension The poor ethnic and religious minorities and those living in peripheral areas of states will suffer disproportionately • The highland regions of Laos and Vietnam are a classic example of ethnic minority concentration in disadvantaged peripheral areas A similar dynamic has helped drive long-standing conflicts in Burma 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Large-scale migration from rural and coastal areas into cities and will increase friction between diverse social groups already under stress from climate change The country most in need of massive resettlement planning is Vietnam In addition to creating outright refugees climate change may drive major increases in migrant workers seeking employment in neighboring countries Overseas migrant labor acts as a safety valve for employment pressures and a source of economically critical remittances Conflicts over migrant workers are already on the rise in the region and countries under increasing domestic employment and societal pressure are unlikely to welcome a major influx of foreign labor • Climate change may drive cross border movements of Vietnamese and Indonesians to Malaysia Cambodians and Laotians to Thailand Burmese to Thailand and Malaysia and Filipinos throughout the region • Millions of Filipinos and Indonesians currently work overseas within or outside the region—over two million Indonesians work in Malaysia alone where they make up over 10 percent of the country’s population Civil society will likely bear much of the initial burden of responding to climate change in Southeast Asia The nongovernmental organization NGO and civil society sector is growing across the region and climate change-induced challenges will likely be forces for deepening citizen participation and influence • Where civil society is robust such as in the Philippines and Thailand it is likely to grow stronger and expand its engagement with climatic and environmental issues • In authoritarian regimes such as Burma Cambodia and Laos the state’s hostility to civil society mobilization is a major limitation on adaptive capacity resulting in relatively underdeveloped NGOs and civil society • Civil organizations have considerable experience filling in the widespread gaps in state-provided social services addressing social problems such as education poverty and public health Indonesia for example relies on civil society for relief efforts— including groups with links to militant Islamist organizations The combination of climate change and other environmental social political and economic factors could cause the failure of one or more states in the region by 2030 • Laos Burma and Cambodia are most at risk of partial or complete state failure • Although Vietnam will face the most severe overall challenges in the region its national resilience renders it unlikely to fail • Indonesia may suffer local state failure or disintegration in peripheral areas of the archipelago but is unlikely to suffer overall failure China has a major economic and political presence in the region and may play a greater role in determining the trajectory of Southeast Asia to 2030 than climate change or any of the states in the region 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • China’s development activities in Southeast Asia such as dam construction and resource extraction pose as great an environmental threat as climate change • China’s assertive presence in Southeast Asia and unwillingness to compromise on sovereignty over the South China Sea or the damming of the Mekong River will create friction with states in the region especially Vietnam and Indonesia The framing of climate change as a Western-generated phenomenon creates the potential for major anti-Western backlashes over virtually any climate change-induced crisis that arises in the region 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 9 Social Political and Economic Challenges 13 Agricultural Challenges Coastal and Maritime Challenges Hydrologic Challenges Demographic and Public Health Challenges Economic Challenges Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Interest Groups in Civil Society Internal Migration Prospects for Civil Conflict 13 16 18 21 21 24 25 27 29 34 State Responses State Decision-Making Political Responses to Climate Change State Capacity Climate Change Mitigation Policies Prospects for State Failure Regional Implications Prospects for Regional Climate Change Cooperation China’s Role in Southeast Asia Regional Migration Prospects for Regional Conflict Maritime Disputes The Mekong River Broader Regional Implications 7 This paper does not represent US Government views 34 36 37 40 42 43 43 45 46 48 49 51 53 This paper does not represent US Government views Overall Foreign Policy Implications Southeast Asia and Global Climate Change Policy The Role of the United States in Southeast Asia US Engagement on Climate Change in Southeast Asia The Copenhagen Negotiations 8 This paper does not represent US Government views 54 55 56 60 62 This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background 1 Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years due to the region’s large and growing population long coastlines abundant low-lying areas reliance on the agricultural sector and dependence upon natural resources This report focuses on Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia the Philippines Singapore Thailand and Vietnam These countries have a diverse range of governments populations religions economic growth development and allocation of natural resources but they all have a similar tropical maritime climate and face similar threats from climate change The effects of climate change have already begun in the Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands region • Average annual surface temperatures in the region increased by 0 5-1 1 °C during the period 1901-2005 i • Precipitation patterns are changing regionally with increases in some locations and decreases in others For example annual rainfall decreased across most of the southern regions of Indonesia Java Lampung South Sumatra South Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara and increased across most of the northern regions of the country Kalimantan and North Sulawesi during 1931-1990 ii • Sea level is rising but the magnitude of the rise varies regionally During the period 1993-2001 the largest increases in sea level 15-25 mm per year in the region occurred near Indonesia and the Philippines while only moderate changes 0-10 mm per year occurred along the coasts of Thailand Cambodia and Vietnam iii Global circulation model projections indicate that climate change will continue to occur in the region throughout the 21st century • Climate model simulations clearly indicate that average annual temperatures are likely to increase across the region by approximately 1°C through 2030 and they will keep increasing through the remainder of the 21st century • The magnitude location and trends of future precipitation changes are much less certain due to the inherent difficulty of modeling such changes Future precipitation changes due solely to climate change are difficult to resolve because they are superimposed on significant inter-annual variations that occur naturally in the region Climate model simulations suggest that net precipitation rates will increase across the region in the next 20 years but decreases probably will vary geographically and temporally • It is difficult to project future changes in monsoon patterns and the effects of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation ENSO on precipitation in the region due to the challenges 1 This section is extracted from the Executive Summary of the Phase I report see Scope Note NIC Special Report Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-04 June 2009 Some of the judgments in this report Phase II may differ from the Phase I report 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views associated with modeling these phenomena Climate model results suggest that the onset of the monsoon in Thailand Laos Cambodia and Vietnam may be delayed by ten to 15 days during 2030-2070 but the duration of the monsoon will not change iv There is no evidence from climate model simulations that ENSO events will become more frequent due to climate change but their intensity may increase v • Sea level will continue to rise although rates will vary across the region By the end of the 21st century sea level is projected to have risen by approximately 30-40 cm vi There is overwhelming evidence that climate change will impact a variety of sectors in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands through 2030 All of the major effects of climate change on the region are interrelated thus it is impossible to assess one impact independently of the others The most high-risk impacts of climate change in the region are related to fresh water and ocean water resources and include the following Sea-level Rise Throughout the region rising sea level causes a number of devastating effects in the region including saltwater intrusion into estuaries and aquifers coastal erosion displacement of wetlands and lowlands degradation of coastal agricultural areas and increased susceptibility to coastal storms These effects are interrelated with impacts on agriculture natural disasters river deltas water resources coastal ecosystems human livelihoods and infrastructure and national security Sea-level rise has overarching socioeconomic impacts as well due to loss of income associated with degradation of agricultural areas and loss of housing associated with coastal inundation for example Water Resources Future changes in regional water resources are closely tied to changes in precipitation The number of local regions under severe water stress is projected to increase dramatically in the next few decades although model results suggest that the region as a whole will not be at risk for water shortages Fresh water resources on all island nations in the region are especially vulnerable to any variability in precipitation because many rely on rainwater collection for their supply of fresh water The management of water resources is one of the most challenging climate-related issues in the region as it is central to health and sustainable development The impacts of climate change on water resources are interrelated with impacts on agriculture river deltas forests coastal ecosystems diseases and human health and national security Agriculture Assessment of the specific impacts of climate change on agriculture is challenging because it is difficult to reliably simulate the complicated effects of future variations in temperatures precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on crop growth Temperature increases associated with climate change could result in a northward expansion of growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to stimulate plant photosynthesis which would result in higher crop yields Studies show that the beneficial effects of CO2 on plants may be offset by average temperature increases of more than 2°C however Overall it is likely that future crop yields will vary by region and by crop with yield increases in some locations but decreases in others Management of the agricultural sector by regional nations is critical to their economic growth and national security The impacts of climate change on agriculture are interrelated with impacts on sea level river deltas natural disasters water resources and national security 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Coastal Regions Coastal regions are some of the most at-risk areas for the impacts of climate change in the region due to their prevalence and high population density Mangroves and coral reefs across the region are two key coastal ecosystems that are expected to be significantly impacted by climate change Many coastal areas are already degraded by pollution sediment-laden runoff and destructive fishing practices Climate change-related destruction and degradation of mangroves and coral reefs will exacerbate these effects and result in long-term economic repercussions because these ecosystems are central to the tourism agriculture fishing and aquaculture industries The area’s coastal regions are also susceptible to inundation associated with sea-level rise and destruction of infrastructure from flooding and storm surges which are likely to increase as a result of future climate change Careful management and safeguarding of coastal regions by regional governments is therefore essential in the next 20 years as the effects of climate change manifest themselves Impacts on coastal regions are interrelated with sea level river deltas natural disasters water resources agriculture forests and human livelihoods and infrastructure 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges Agricultural Challenges Southeast Asia is a globally important agricultural region which is a major exporter of agricultural and forestry products Despite trends toward urbanization and growth of light manufacturing and services agriculture remains the major employer in the region Large segments of the population in Southeast Asia remain dependent on subsistence agriculture particularly in the less developed countries such as Laos Cambodia and Burma The only countries without an important agricultural sector are the micro-states of Singapore and Brunei Southeast Asian agriculture faces a wide array of existing challenges The region’s monsoonal climate generates highly variable weather conditions including severe storms and extreme droughts and flooding The productivity of the region’s arable land is threatened by unsustainable agriculture practices erosion caused by loss of forest cover industrial pollution and pesticides Limited infrastructure in the less developed countries particularly Laos and Cambodia hampers the movement of agricultural goods beyond local markets and monoculture—growing of a single crop—is prevalent These factors combine to render the agricultural populations most vulnerable in the countries that also have the least capacity to cope with climatic challenges The overall impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Southeast Asia to 2030 is uncertain To a large extent it appears likely that climatic impacts on agriculture will be determined by a complex interaction of localized factors Benefits from longer growing seasons expanded growing areas increased photosynthesis and CO2 fertilization may be offset by delays in the monsoon unreliable precipitation temperature increases inundation of fertile coastal areas and increases in pests and plant diseases Crop yields may increase in some areas and decrease in others perhaps consistently perhaps on a shifting basis Changes in overall conditions will be overlaid by more frequent extreme weather events which will severely disrupt agriculture on a recurring basis Some of the most disruptive climate change-induced effects may be the loss of fertile agricultural land and shifts in growing areas Land availability is already a major problem in densely populated areas such as Java or the Mekong and Red River Deltas Sea-level rise flooding and erosion will all contribute to a reduction in arable land particularly in fertile riparian and coastal areas This will increase the density of farmers on the remaining land making conflicts more likely Moreover the concentration of high-density intensive farming in areas—such as coasts river flood plains and deltas— that are the most vulnerable to climate change-induced challenges acts as a force multiplier for adverse impacts on the region’s agricultural sectors Adaptation to shifts in growing areas will involve the movement of farmers onto new land—most likely land already occupied by others—or switching to new crops Traditional agricultural communities that have occupied the same location and grown the same crops since time immemorial will have difficulty adapting to such shifts Rice Production Rice is not only Southeast Asia’s most important agricultural product but by far the region’s most important dietary staple Although Indonesia is the world’s 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views third largest rice producer domestic demand makes it the largest world importer The region nevertheless leads the world in rice exports—Thailand is the world’s largest rice exporters and Vietnam the second largest Both Laos and Cambodia are essentially rice monoculture economies—agriculture dominates the economy and employment and rice dominates agriculture A failed rice harvest could cause not merely an economic disaster but a humanitarian one as well The impact of climate change on regional rice production is the single most important agricultural consideration to 2030 As is the case with other aspects of agriculture climate change is expected to have mixed consequences for rice production Production may increase in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia while prospects for the Philippines and Thailand are uncertain Rice production is water intensive and more intermittent rainfall or delays in the monsoon may dramatically cut rice yields Upland cultivation will suffer from erosion and increased surface runoff due to deforestation and increased rainfall If rice paddies remain flooded for longer periods due to increased rainfall or sea-level rise rotting vegetation will increase methane emissions contributing to greenhouse gas emissions In coastal areas rice paddies face risks of saltwater intrusion from sea-level rise and storm surges The threat is especially serious in Vietnam where fresh water from the Mekong and Red River Deltas allows a second rice crop to be cultivated during the dry season making a critical contribution to Vietnam’s rice production and export By 2030 salinity intrusion in the rice paddies of the Mekong is expected to push up to 12 miles inland during the dry season causing a loss of dry season rice production Rural Labor Although the region hosts many major urban areas and rural-to-urban migration averaged over three percent per annum from 2000 to 2005 many countries in Southeast Asia remain heavily rural With the exception of Malaysia at least two-thirds of the population in the states of the Southeast Asian mainland remains rural The populations of Laos Cambodia and Burma are overwhelmingly rural while in Indonesia almost half the population remains rural 2 Even in mixed economies such as Thailand Indonesia the Philippines and Vietnam agriculture remains a huge employer 3 Much of the economic growth in the region has been in light manufacturing commerce and services that are comparatively less labor-intensive than traditional agriculture The beneficiaries have mainly been established urban populations and the demand for new labor from rural areas while it has increased has not done so precipitously in most countries As a result many countries in the region have had trouble addressing the surplus rural labor generated by high population growth rates In Indonesia for example the government turned to a controversial transmigration program to relocate surplus rural labor from overcrowded Java and Madura to less populous islands rather than into industrial jobs in Java’s cities Urban industrial growth was not robust enough to accommodate them These dynamics pose a huge problem for the next two decades Climate change is likely to drive mass involuntary migration from overstressed rural 2 Rural population shares are Cambodia 78 percent Indonesia 48 percent Laos 69 percent Malaysia 30 percent the Philippines 35 percent Thailand 66 percent and Vietnam 72 percent Singapore is 100 percent urban 3 Agriculture accounts for 75 percent of the labor force in Cambodia 43 percent in Indonesia 80 percent in Laos 37 percent in the Philippines 42 percent in Thailand and 58 percent in Vietnam 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views areas into overstressed cities Absent a sea-change in industrial growth patterns urban economies in the region will not be able to provide employment to the newcomers The result could be mass unemployment in both the cities and the countryside The humanitarian threat from rural unemployment or major losses of rural income is compounded by the fact that much of the rural population in Southeast Asia already lives in poverty In addition because of the number of men leaving the countryside in search of work the poor marginal rural labor force is disproportionately female Climate change-induced rural challenges will therefore disparately impact women Food Security Despite the region’s agricultural productivity overpopulation and mismanagement of food distribution mean that food security is already a problem in many Southeast Asian states including the Philippines Laos Cambodia Burma and Indonesia Singapore is dependent on the importation of nearly all its foodstuffs but the country’s relative wealth allows it to purchase ample food on the world and regional markets Agricultural disruptions arising from climate change to 2030 will raise food security to the top tier of national challenges in the region Climate change will likely cause both absolute food shortages and sharp increases in food prices In many cases the most at-risk areas for climatic or environmental disruption are “rice basket” regions that feed not only the rest of their countries but others in the region as well The most serious such challenge to 2030 is likely to be the loss of Vietnam’s Mekong Delta which feeds as much as half the country’s population Food security will be a particular problem where rural populations are heavily dependent on subsistence agriculture Climate change will increase the frequency of localized agricultural crises depriving subsistence farmers of food and livelihood This will drive a major increase in rural to urban migration it will also shift millions from self-sufficiency to dependence on the region’s underdeveloped food distribution networks Infrastructure limitations may prevent surplus food from being used to address local shortages in other areas Laos the region’s most acutely underdeveloped state is especially susceptible to this problem Uneven distribution of food security could be a major source of unrest especially where it correlates with ethnic or other differences Land currently allocated to export crops may have to be reallocated to domestic needs Crop prices are also likely to increase significantly due to reductions in supply and disruptions of distribution networks States such as Laos or Cambodia that lack the financial resources to purchase substantial amounts of food overseas are likely to become chronically dependent on humanitarian food aid Deforestation Massive deforestation across Southeast Asia is one of the region’s most serious current environmental problems Southeast Asia hosts roughly five percent of the world’s forests and is a major source of global forest products including valuable hardwoods such as teak Unsustainable forestry practices represent a greater and more proximate threat to the region’s forests and the indigenous peoples who depend upon them than does climate change Fast-rising global demand for palm oil rubber coffee and other plantation crops have led to the replacement of large swathes of tropical forest with plantations Indonesia has one of the largest tropical forests in the world but its rate of deforestation is the highest in the world more than 14 000 square miles a year At 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views current rates of deforestation Indonesia and many other Southeast Asian countries will have lost the vast majority of their forest cover by 2030 In addition climate change will significantly exacerbate collateral threats associated with deforestation Heavier monsoon rains caused by climate change will combine with deforestation to drastically reduce the absorption of runoff leading to increased erosion flooding and landslides These problems already pose major threats across the region including in the Philippines Indonesia Burma Laos and Cambodia Climate change is also expected to bring hotter drier conditions during the dry season which is likely to increase the extent and incidence of forest fires in the region In recent decades Southeast Asia has suffered some of the world’s worst forest fires notably in 1997 Forest fires and peat bog fires associated with deforestation have been estimated to contribute 80 percent of Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions which are among the world’s largest behind China and the United States The major cause of the fires is largescale burning of forest vegetation and carbon-rich peat bogs for land clearance primarily in Sumatra and Borneo Up to 30 percent of total global carbon is currently sequestered in peat bogs in Indonesia and Malaysia which can smolder underground for years igniting forest fires every dry season Forest fires generate an annual blanket of smoky air over the region that can cover as much as two million square miles Indonesia is the largest contributor to this phenomenon which is euphemistically called “the haze ” The haze represents a major regional environmental hazard that has a significant economic and public health impact not only on Indonesia but on neighboring Malaysia and Singapore Burning may substantially decrease as Indonesia runs out of forest land suitable for clearance Coastal and Maritime Challenges The maritime impacts of climate change are critical to Southeast Asia due to the concentration of population agriculture and economic activity in low-lying coastal areas 4 In Indonesia for example coastal and marine development including fishery production and shrimp farming account for 25 to 30 percent of GDP and provide employment for 20 million people The region’s coastal lands and waters are already under threat from environmental and developmental pressures such as pollution sediment-laden runoff and destructive fishing practices Climate change will exacerbate the degradation of the region’s coasts through sea-level rise coastal erosion increased storm activity and damage to littoral ecosystems The archipelagoes of the Philippines and Indonesia with some 22 000 and 33 000 miles of coastline respectively are by far the most susceptible to coastal climatic impacts and are also expected to experience the greatest sea-level rises in the region Nevertheless the greatest proportional humanitarian and socio-economic impacts may be felt on the densely populated agriculturally vital deltas of Vietnam and Burma Further offshore changes in ocean conditions may significantly disrupt marine ecosystems Fisheries The seas of Southeast Asia host some of the world’s most important fisheries and fish is the most important source of dietary protein for many of the region’s 4 The percentage of the population living within 60 miles of the coast is 98 percent in Indonesia 87 percent in the Philippines 78 percent in Vietnam and 40 percent in Thailand 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views inhabitants Despite large-scale commercial fishing both by locals and by Chinese Japanese and American fishing fleets much of the region’s fish catch goes to individual subsistence fishermen Fish stocks in the region have been under threat for the last several decades from overfishing and pollution Maritime climate change will cause shifts in water temperature salinity ocean circulation and acidity At a minimum the movement of fish schools will be altered but at some point climatic effects could have a gross disruptive impact on the marine food chain Crucial regional fisheries such as those of the South China Sea could be seriously depleted or even collapse entirely The economic and food security impact from such a catastrophic scenario could create instability across the region Coral Reefs The coral reefs of every littoral state in Southeast Asia are already seriously threatened by coastal economic development shipping lanes overfishing sedimentation and wastewater pollution Climate change is expected to compound the pressure on reefs primarily through coral bleaching and reduced marine biodiversity brought about by rising ocean temperatures Indonesia’s 18 000 square miles of coral reefs generate annual economic benefits estimated at US$1 6 billion while the Philippines’ approximately 9 000 square miles generate US$1 1 billion Thailand Indonesia and the Philippines have already suffered major coral bleaching episodes Even though coral reefs usually recover from bleaching events more frequent disruption of the reefs would have a significant regional impact on both fishing and tourism Coastal Erosion and Island Losses The impact of erosion on coasts will vary across the region depending on coastal topography and other factors Coastal erosion will particularly threaten the coasts of Vietnam Indonesia and the Philippines In addition to fishing intensive agricultural activity is concentrated along Southeast Asia’s coasts and particularly in the fertile silt of the region’s river deltas such as the Mekong and Red River Deltas in Vietnam and the Irrawaddy Delta in Burma Saltwater intrusion is already a problem in delta regions and is expected to move further inland contaminate the soil and irrigation water of low-lying croplands in areas such as Java and Sumatra Over the long term most of the deltas in the region will be permanently submerged or eroded away Inundation of fertile coastal farmland will be compounded by storm surges that will destroy additional farmland and infrastructure reaching far inland in flat delta regions Sea-level rise changes in sea temperature and salinity and storm activity will also threaten the coastal mangroves Like forested hillsides on land the mangroves play a crucial role in anchoring the fertile silt washed down into the deltas If the mangroves die off deltaic erosion would accelerate dramatically Vietnam stands to lose over 14 000 square miles of delta and significant deltaic areas may disappear in Thailand and Indonesia as well Sea-level rise is set to completely submerge numerous small islands in the region especially in Indonesia Islands and reefs often form the basis for offshore oil and gas claims making their potential disappearance a contentious issue Some estimates indicate Indonesia may lose 2 000 small islands to sea-level rise by 2030 It is worthwhile to put this impressive figure in perspective however Less than half of Indonesia’s more than 13 500 islands are inhabited so even the large-scale loss of islands may not be directly felt by the Indonesian population The most serious socio-political 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views impact may be the effect losing key boundary islands will have on territorial and seabed claims Coastal villages towns and cities will face the risk of inundation as a result of sea-level rise more frequent major storms and associated storm surges Storms and flooding will take a considerable toll in destroyed housing and infrastructure and socio-economic disruption Public health risks will increase due to such factors as contamination of drinking water Coastal settlements at risk include some of Southeast Asia’s most important cities such as Bangkok Jakarta and Rangoon While major coastal cities will likely suffer the greatest economic losses the humanitarian toll may be higher in smaller coastal settlements which lack the infrastructure to cope with disasters Cyclone Nargis in 2008 illustrates this distinction—although Rangoon suffered extensive damage the vast majority of deaths occurred elsewhere in the Irrawaddy Delta Hydrologic Challenges The overall abundance of water in Southeast Asia is tempered by the monsoonal wet-dry seasonal variation Southeast Asia thus faces both challenges from excessive water flooding erosion due to runoff severe storms and from water scarcity droughts and reduced river flows The combination of high population density and water-intensive agriculture in some areas also leads to severe localized stress on water resources and distribution systems Water quality is also a major issue with high levels of industrial and agricultural pollutants tainting many water sources Climate change will have a mixed impact on regional water resources in Southeast Asia Although the region as a whole does not appear likely to suffer a major loss of water to 2030 shifts in hydrologic systems and precipitation patterns could nevertheless create severe local crises Precipitation projections vary but in general significant increases in precipitation are predicted in western maritime Southeast Asia and the southern Philippines Southern Vietnam East Malaysia and particularly eastern Indonesia and the northern Philippines are predicted to suffer sharp decreases in rainfall In practical terms this intra-regional variation renders the overall net water availability in the region irrelevant—local conditions will determine incidence and severity of water stress In addition to geographic variations the already strong seasonal variation in precipitation will become even more extreme bringing more severe droughts flooding and storms and exacerbating water management problems across the spectrum On the mainland climate change-induced glacial melting in the Himalayas the source for the major rivers of mainland Southeast Asia such as the Mekong Irrawaddy and Salween is expected to generate increased near-term river flows but drastic decreases in the longer term as the glaciers disappear Because water stress-induced crises could arise from either extreme—water scarcity or excess—such crises could occur virtually anywhere in the region The most at risk areas will be those subject to pre-existing water scarcity or abundance For example Thailand is among the countries with least potable water available per capita and its northeastern Isan region is already drought-prone The margin of available water resources relative to population and agricultural and urban water use is already narrow in most of the densely populated areas of the region such as Java Water excess poses the greatest threat to 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views low-lying flood-prone areas such as the region’s river basins and deltas Water stress in such areas could generate large-scale refugee flows and humanitarian crises that the region is ill-equipped to handle In addition agricultural areas where cultivation is dependent on finely balanced traditional hydrologic patterns will face severe disruption The foremost example is the lower Mekong Basin where agriculture depends on the complex and unusual hydrology of the Mekong River Urban Water Challenges Although many of Southeast Asia’s agricultural areas will face acute water stress the potential for disastrous humanitarian consequences may be greater in the region’s cities Urban growth already strains the region’s water infrastructure which is underdeveloped in many areas During the height of El Nino cities such as Bangkok Dili Kuala Lumpur Manila and Singapore went through sporadic water shortages and rationing The combination of unreliable rainfall and massive urban growth as people are displaced from the coast and countryside could deplete critical aquifers and lead to severe urban water shortages Southeast Asian states will face the need to allocate a significantly greater proportion of water resources to urban areas diverting water away from already stressed water-intensive agriculture Water resource allocation is already a point of contention within and between the states of Southeast Asia For example Singapore depends on Malaysia for most of its water which has led to recurring tension between the two countries Although most of the governments in the region subsidize water cities across Southeast Asia are likely to face sharp increases in water costs In addition to shortages some cities will also face increased risk of severe flooding Urban flooding is already a widespread phenomenon in the region both as a result of wet season riparian flooding and storm surges During the 2008 monsoon season both Hanoi and Vientiane had their worst flooding in generations In early 2009 extreme rainfall caused a dam near Jakarta to collapse and sweep away a suburban neighborhood Manila and Bangkok face similar flooding challenges The impacts from more frequent and severe urban flooding will be compounded by major urban population growth and overstressed infrastructure The Mekong River By far the most serious water resource issue in the region concerns the Mekong River Basin Between now and 2030 the events taking place in the Mekong River Basin will have greater adverse impact on the ecology of mainland Southeast Asia than will global climate change as a whole The Basin is an area of over 900 000 square miles home to more than 320 million people in six countries—Burma Thailand Laos Cambodia Vietnam and China’s Yunnan province Of those countries Laos Cambodia and southern Vietnam are almost wholly dependent on the Mekong River In Vietnam alone some 30 million people are dependent on the Mekong River Delta The Delta accounts for half of Vietnam’s rice production and Mekong fisheries provide 80 percent of the dietary protein intake in southern Indochina The Mekong Basin is already under stress from pollution overpopulation declining fish catches deforestation and erosion and saltwater intrusion in the delta Like other rivers in mainland Southeast Asia the Mekong is expected to suffer disruptions in flow as a result of glacial recession in the Himalayas and more variable precipitation Sea-level 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views rise salinity intrusion and coastal erosion will pose major threats to the river’s delta in southern Vietnam Sea-level rise in the delta will put at risk large swathes of cultivable land critical fisheries and nearly two million inhabitants Although climate change poses a longer term threat the massive hydroelectric dam construction program under way on the river poses a much greater and more proximate threat The risk to the Mekong stems from the river’s complex hydrology The strong seasonal variation in precipitation associated with Southeast Asia’s monsoon climate generates a unique “flood pulse” hydrologic pattern in the Mekong River The coming of the monsoon rapidly swells the river’s flow sending a flood wave downstream that irrigates the fertile rice paddies and croplands of the lower Mekong in Cambodia and Vietnam also bringing nutrient-rich silt to rejuvenate the soil In addition the Mekong’s flood pulse drives the hydrology of Cambodia’s Great Lake the Tonle Sap The lake supports three million people and its exceptionally rich fisheries provide 60 percent of Cambodians’ protein intake as well as stocking the fisheries of the Mekong Delta The lake empties into the Mekong at Phnom Penh but the Mekong’s monsoon flood pulse reverses the flow driving water back north into the lake As a result the Tonle Sap quadruples in size during the wet season irrigating much of central Cambodia The lake also acts like a tidal basin preventing the increased monsoon flow from flooding or scouring the away the Mekong Delta When the Mekong’s flow drops during the dry season the vast reservoir of freshwater held in the Tonle Sap empties back into the Mekong Delta This doubles the dry season flow into the delta and permits year-round rice cultivation that accounts for much of the area productivity If all the dams and infrastructure projects are implemented the Mekong Delta will disappear much faster than it would due to Sea-level risesea-level rise The river’s complex hydrologic system could be catastrophically disrupted even by modest dam construction and water diversion let alone the massive programs now underway Without the seasonal flow reversal into the Tonle Sap the lake would shrink drastically devastating Cambodian agriculture Without dry season drainage from the Tonle Sap the Mekong Delta would no longer be able to produce a second rice crop The migratory fish population would be cut off from spawning grounds in the Tonle Sap or further upstream collapsing the fisheries In addition even a few dams on the lower Mekong will prevent renewal of the delta silt deposits and the reduction in flow will allow permanent saltwater intrusion that would kill the mangroves and prevent rice cultivation The disruption of the lower Mekong hydrology would represent a massive catastrophe for southern Indochina Simultaneous huge losses in rice production and in the fish catch would generate a food security crisis for millions in Cambodia and Vietnam In combination with accelerated erosion millions of Vietnamese would be driven from the Mekong Delta one of the most densely populated areas in Southeast Asia This would not only generate a humanitarian crisis but could lead to major conflicts across southern Indochina 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Demographic and Public Health Challenges Southeast Asia has experienced rapid population growth that has led to overpopulation and consequent strains on land availability food security water resources and social stability Large segments of the region’s population are concentrated in fairly small overstressed areas such as Java the Mekong and Red River Deltas the Bangkok area and islands across the Philippine and Indonesian archipelagoes Such population concentrations are already at high risk from climate change-induced challenges and population is likely to become even more concentrated as a result of climate change Climate change is likely to spark the next wave of urbanization which none of the countries in the region are prepared to deal with Whereas rural-to-urban migration has traditionally been a safety valve to alleviate rural poverty and discontent it will increasingly become a matter of survival At the same time the capacity of Southeast Asia’s cities to absorb migrants will decline as a result of climate change-induced stress on already inadequate infrastructure As a result of high population growth rates in recent decades and a fairly low life expectancy in some states Southeast Asia has a relatively young population Demographically younger countries tend to be those with lower levels of economic development and weaker state capacity such as Laos median age 19 Cambodia the Philippines and Timor-Leste all median age 22 Reduced opportunities and greater climatic and economic hardships may create a generation of alienated youths with adverse impacts on the social stability of countries in the region Public Health Challenges Public health has been a persistent challenge for Southeast Asia Apart from Singapore and to a lesser extent Thailand the region has weak health care infrastructure particularly in Burma and Laos Public health sectors in many countries are already struggling with very high prevalence of chronic diseases such as HIV AIDs as well as periodic severe outbreaks of a host of tropical ailments Sanitation and water treatment also remain rudimentary in many areas Although public health systems may become more robust over the next two decades they are nevertheless likely to be severely taxed by the effects of climate change Regional vulnerability to disease will increase as higher temperatures and humidity combine with projected increases in population urbanization and declining water quality The collateral effects of food water and heat stress may weaken immune systems and climate change-induced migration will aid in the spread of diseases Economic Challenges Southeast Asia is an economically heterogeneous region with widely varying levels of economic development At one extreme Laos and Cambodia remain underdeveloped agricultural economies with most of their population engaged in subsistence rice farming At the other the city-state of Singapore is a trading financial and manufacturing powerhouse Although each economy faces specific challenges the region has also faced a number of common challenges including major regional financial crises the need to transition from agriculture to manufacturing and services-based economic models depletion of natural resources and the challenge of addressing widespread poverty 21 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Southeast Asia was badly shaken by the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998 and is again under severe stress from the continuing global economic downturn As was the case after the financial crisis success in economic restructuring and recovery will be a key determinant of socio-political stability over the next two decades Most Southeast Asian states have staked their domestic political legitimacy on the maintenance of economic growth and development coupled with spending on social programs such as poverty reduction agricultural subsidies and public health In those countries that fail to undergo a robust recovery persistent economic weakness and climate change-induced stress will compound each other Climate change is likely to seriously threaten both economic growth and state budgetary largess on a sustained basis which could translate into widespread political instability Resource Depletion The rapid depletion of natural resources such as timber hydrocarbons and minerals is a major problem across the region with the loss of timber being particularly acute Many of the countries in the region particularly Indonesia Malaysia the Philippines and Burma depend heavily on natural resource rents for state revenues Over the next 20 years unsustainable resource exploitation is likely to undermine the flow of public funds as well as generating intense competition over resources Climate change-induced disruptions such as storm activity flooding and erosion will make natural resource extraction more costly and difficult Climate change will thus disrupt a principal source of public revenues while generating a major simultaneous need for increased public expenditures to combat climate change-induced impacts This will increase the need for sustainable development models as well as economic diversification programs such as that undertaken in the East Malaysian state of Sarawak which responded to depletion of timber resources by turning to manufacturing commercial agriculture and services Poverty Millions of Southeast Asians live in poverty with a narrow margin of subsistence and few resources to respond to climate change or cushion a loss of income resulting from it In both Vietnam and Indonesia 85 percent of the population lives on less than $2 00 a day Poverty is far worse in countries such as Laos Cambodia and Burma Thailand Malaysia and particularly Singapore have higher overall standards of living—in Thailand less than five percent live on $2 00 a day or less Poverty reduction is a major aspect of economic development in the region and a major source of popular legitimacy for leaders and regimes In Indonesia for example President Yudhoyono was re-elected in large part because of his allocation of subsidies to the poor Income inequality in Southeast Asia has increased since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis which stalled the momentum built up by poverty reduction efforts in the preceding decades Climate change in Southeast Asia will disproportionally affect both the poorer countries in the region and the poorer populations within individual countries Poorer states are more susceptible to state breakdown and poorer populations face greater risks and vulnerabilities The net effect may be to push millions into a position of abject dependence on humanitarian aid most of which will have to come from overseas Shortages of available funds in the long-term will force leaders to make hard choices between climate change adaptation and policies such as poverty reduction 22 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The Energy Sector A global shift away from reliance on fossil fuels in response to climate change could cause some loss of revenues for Southeast Asian economies that depend on hydrocarbon resource rents such as Malaysia Indonesia and particularly Brunei Even if developed countries move away from fossil fuels however growing demand in the developing economies combined with dwindling world supply may keep oil and gas revenues high The region’s abundant energy resources particularly fossil fuels and hydroelectricity mean that Southeast Asia is not likely to face a major overall energy deficit to 2030 As with food and water the problem is more the need to expand energy distribution infrastructure so that energy can be sent where it is needed Massive climate changedriven urban growth will increase urban energy demand and energy costs across the region over the next two decades Countries in the region expect to meet much of the increased electricity demand with hydropower driving potentially disastrous dam construction notably on the Mekong River Despite the attractiveness of hydropower climate change may have an adverse impact on the region’s hydroelectric resources due to reduced river flows Trade and Industries Aside from extractive resource-based industries such as mining hydrocarbons and timber industrial growth in Southeast Asia has been focused on light manufacturing such as electronics textiles clothing and food processing Heavy industry is not an important economic factor and the pace of industrialization has been solid but not explosive Although destructive events such as storms or floods could cause damage to plants and equipment the major climate-related challenge will likely be the need to absorb an influx of rural labor into the industrial labor pool A growing industrial labor surplus may drive down wages and quality of life for urban workers Conversely climate change-induced urbanization may drive a shift toward more rapid industrialization Situated astride some of the world’s most important maritime trade routes Southeast Asia has long been a major trading region with Singapore its unquestioned hub Southeast Asian countries do a brisk trade in both manufactures and primary products such as hydrocarbons minerals and timber In addition re-export trade is very important due to the region’s location on the trade routes from Northeast Asia to South Asia the Middle East and Europe Climatic pressure may reduce the availability of certain resources and goods altering the composition and volume of trade in the region with significant impacts on Singapore and other states Increased storm activity may depress maritime trade and along with sea-level rise may threaten port infrastructure In addition the possible opening of new shorter Arctic trade routes between Northeast Asia and Europe could have a major effect on re-export trade over the longer term Tourism The tourism industry is very important in Southeast Asia and may suffer disproportionately from climate change Tourism is an established economic staple in Thailand Indonesia and the Philippines It accounts for over seven percent of GDP in Thailand which receives upwards of five million visitors each year In recent years tourism has also become a major driver of economic growth in the less developed countries of mainland Southeast Asia particularly Cambodia and Vietnam Cambodia’s 23 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views burgeoning tourism sector brings two million visitors a year to the ruins of Angkor Wat and the beaches around Sihanoukville and Kep providing much needed hard currency Eco-tourism is also very important in places such as East Malaysia and Indonesia In the East Malaysian state of Sabah for example eco-tourism brings roughly two million visitors a year and is the second largest sector in the local economy Despite its economic benefits tourism also increases environmental degradation and disrupts local socio-economic patterns For example the many new tourist hotels around Siem Reap in central Cambodia are draining the area’s water table to the detriment of local agriculture In addition tourism-driven development has led to conflicts over real estate and forced farmers from their land These factors will become more disruptive as climate change further restricts water and land availability Moreover degradation of coastal coral reef and rainforest ecosystems due to climate change poses a major threat to regional tourism particularly coastal and eco-tourism Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Civil society will likely bear much of the initial burden of responding to climate change in Southeast Asia The nongovernmental organization NGO and civil society sector is growing across the region and climate change-induced challenges will likely be forces for deepening citizen participation and influence Where civil society is robust such as in the Philippines and Thailand it is likely to grow stronger and expand its engagement with climatic and environmental issues Even where civil society is weak the challenges posed by climate change are likely to force it to expand to fill the void left by ineffective or selective state responses In authoritarian regimes such as Burma Cambodia and Laos the state’s hostility to civil society mobilization is a major limitation on adaptive capacity resulting in relatively underdeveloped NGOs and civil society On the other hand populations in those states may be more resilient to sustained hardship The states with more open political systems such as the Philippines Indonesia or Thailand tend to have well-developed social resources and civil society organizations These groups range from family-clan organizations to national-level socio-religious networks Even in nominally open democratic countries in the region however the capacity of civil society to influence state policy in Southeast Asia will likely remain relatively limited The divide between civil society and political economic and bureaucratic elites in the region remains wide and mechanisms to redress public grievances are weak Rather than challenging or pressuring the state civil society is more likely to work in parallel to the state Civil organizations have considerable experience filling in the widespread gaps in stateprovided social services addressing social problems such as education poverty and public health For example Indonesia relies on civil society for relief efforts—including groups with links to militant Islamist organizations This backup social support network could readily be mobilized to address climate change-induced challenges Public awareness of climate change-related issues remains weak across much of Southeast Asia but most likely will strengthen as challenges manifest themselves with increasing frequency and severity Awareness is a prerequisite for mobilization and effective action but not a guarantee of either Sensitivity to environmental issues among 24 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views the educated urban elite is important but may not translate into action in the rural periphery where it is most needed One of the most important roles civil society can play regarding climate change is to help translate sensitivity into action on the climate change issue Political mobilization is already on the rise across the region among both elites and the traditionally depoliticized masses Farmers in Thailand have mobilized to protest the government’s decision to import Chinese agricultural products while many young Western-educated Indonesians can be found heading environmental groups Climate change will expand the range of grievances around which such mobilization will take place and consequently increase the scope of active civil society Much of this mobilization will occur at the local level where civil society groups may be better able to pressure local government The expansion of participation by civil society in the political process may not always be constructive In Thailand for example the coups and political turmoil in Thailand have resulted in the growth of the competing Red and Yellow Shirt protest movements whose clashes with each other and the state have sometimes turned violent Similar “uncivil society” movements may arise around climate change-induced social conflicts Climate change is likely to expand civil mobilization even in heretofore authoritarian states in the region potentially leading to more open political processes Vietnam probably provides the strongest example of this process Thousands of village and local organizations have emerged that are not under the direct control of the pro-government umbrella group for “mass movements ” the Vietnamese Fatherland Front Although the National Assembly remains controlled by the Communist Party it is becoming more important and better at representing local interests Because the Vietnamese Government will rely on the assistance of NGOs to help mobilize to prevent damming of the Mekong River the state is likely to become more comfortable with such groups over time By 2030 this emerging trend toward increasing openness may render Vietnam one of the more representative governments in the region even if it remains a one-party state Interest Groups in Civil Society Environmental Movements Over the last decade environmental movements have increased in size and influence forming networks across the region and increasingly spreading into rural and peripheral areas The growth of environmentalism has been spurred by concern among the expanding middle class over unrestrained devastation of the region’s environment by such practices as logging mining and overfishing Environmental groups obviously have an important role to play in raising awareness of climate change and pressing for mitigation measures Moreover the increasing social salience of climate change-induced challenges will likely continue to bolster the membership and influence of environmental groups Although their policy leverage remains limited environmental groups are becoming increasingly engaged in the political process In Malaysia for example environmental groups were able to secure concessions by joining the political opposition thus allowing the latter to cross the two-thirds threshold in parliament Environmental groups are well established in the Philippines and increasingly influential in Indonesia and Thailand 25 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Over the next two decades environmental groups might take hold even in repressive regimes such as Burma Laos Cambodia and most promisingly in Vietnam Authoritarian regimes tend to permit such groups space in the public discourse because they are seen as non-threatening As the example of former Soviet states shows however such groups can become the first wedges that allow broader civil society to make inroads against state repression On the other hand the state and powerful economic interests have in many instances responded with violence as environmental movements have increased in prominence and mobilization Under the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand for example environmental activists were murdered and efforts were made to marginalize environmental activism nationally Environmental activists have similarly been targeted in Cambodia and elsewhere in the region Such violence is likely to increase as climate change creates new environmental conflicts and raises the stakes on competition over resources The Media The degree of freedom of the press varies widely across Southeast Asia In the more authoritarian states in the region the media remains strictly controlled Like other institutions in the region the media generally is not well-informed about climate change and its implications for Southeast Asia Nevertheless the media has already begun to play a significant role in covering environmental issues at least at the local level Although explicit criticism of state policies is generally prohibited in states such as Vietnam or Laos the media circumvents this by covering what is going on in China as a metaphor for domestic issues In the more developed countries such as Indonesia new media and the Internet are becoming increasingly important Religious Organizations Southeast Asia hosts a number of large influential religious organizations that could play a critical role in addressing climate change The Catholic Church in the Philippines and the Buddhist Sangha in Thailand have taken strong stands on environmental issues For example Buddhist monks in Thailand have taken action against deforestation by blessing trees so that no one will cut them down Indonesia hosts two large mass-based Muslim organizations the Nadhlatul Ulama which claims 40 million members and Muhammadiya with 35 million members These organizations have helped mobilize Indonesian society behind government efforts such as family planning and childhood vaccination All of these institutions are well organized at the local level and their leaders are influential nationally They therefore serve as important political transmission belts bringing local concerns to the national level and vice versa With sufficient political and financial backing they could help raise awareness of climate change and techniques to mitigate it Business Interests Business interests are and will remain the most important nonstate actors with regard to policymaking on climate change mitigation and response Business interests have strong ties to the state and are the civil groups most able to exert pressure on state decision-making In general business interests and allied political elites are concerned with present profits rather than warnings about the future Many climate change mitigation measures will be expensive will require industries to radically change their practices or will significantly reallocate resources Business interests—particularly 26 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views extractive industries such as mining logging or energy—are likely to use their influence to oppose climate change mitigation measures as they have opposed other environmental oversight or sustainability measures Some influential elements within the economies of Southeast Asia have an interest in addressing climate change Insurance companies and investors may press for climate change mitigation because of the losses they might suffer from climate change-induced damage There is money to be made from green technology and the massive infrastructure projects needed to respond to climate change may bring new industries to the fore challenging the hold established economic interests have on the political and economic systems of the region Mobilization of countervailing economic forces may turn out to be a more promising avenue to address climate change than the activities of less self-interested groups within civil society Criminal Networks Southeast Asia hosts a wide array of major criminal networks primarily organized around trafficking The region is a major drug producer and transit point for illicit drugs The cultivation of heroin and other drugs forms the primary economic activity in the “Golden Triangle” region of northern Laos Burma and Thailand Human trafficking is likewise a serious problem in Southeast Asia where an estimated 200 000 to 500 000 people are trafficked each year Climate change will divert state resources away from combating crime and create opportunities for criminal networks to expand their activities For example refugees and stressed populations are particularly vulnerable to trafficking Criminal networks may profit from trafficking natural resources that increase in value due to climate change mitigation efforts For example tropical timber could increase in value on the black market as efforts expand to keep forests standing to mitigate climate change and as timber shortages grow Internal Migration Among the most destabilizing impacts climate change may have in Southeast Asia will be large-scale population shifts both within and between countries It is difficult to project the source magnitude and direction of migration within the region without detailed projections of climatic impacts on particular areas This is particularly the case when considering migration within states in the region Intra-state migration might involve population shifts driven by highly localized pressures Even migration over very short distances—a few tens of miles from outlying districts into a city for example— could have profound socio-economic effects Further complicating the migration picture rapid movements due to extreme climatic events or tipping points will be superimposed on gradual movements due to long-term climatic shifts Nevertheless at least two dynamics are likely to recur in intra-state migration throughout the region movement into cities and movement away from vulnerable coastal areas Rural-to-Urban Migration The most significant aspect of internal migration in Southeast Asia probably will be the mass population movement from the countryside into the cities The massive rural influx will create serious social tensions and will place a major strain on urban infrastructure already strained by the effects of climate change Municipal governments will in most cases be unable to keep pace with urban growth and to provide adequate social services and urban planning Newcomers may end up in 27 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views shantytowns that lack the infrastructure needed to counter the impacts of climate change They may not be welcomed by the established urban population particularly if they are ethnically or culturally distinct Competition for housing and real estate are already fierce in many cities and this will only intensify Unchecked urban growth may bring about major increases in crime unemployment and other destabilizing factors Currently many urban migrants maintain ties with their native villages and in times of urban economic downturns will often return there where traditional familial and social networks provide an informal social safety net This safety valve may no longer be viable due to climate change-induced rural disruption Setting aside the city-state of Singapore Peninsular Malaysia probably has the most robust urban infrastructure and greatest capacity to absorb rural refugees into its light industrial economy Malaysia is already heavily urbanized however and faces comparatively less climatic threat to its rural areas Among the more rural states Vietnam should be able to absorb the refugees from the countryside better than other countries in the region due to the rapid growth of its urban export-led manufacturing That said Vietnam’s cities are still likely to be overwhelmed by the magnitude of internal population movement the country will face as the Mekong Delta succumbs to climate change or dam-building In Cambodia the Philippines and Laos the government urban infrastructure and economy are particularly unprepared to absorb an explosive growth in rural migration to the cities With the exceptions of Indonesia and the Philippines the states in the region only have a limited number of major urban centers apiece—in the case of Cambodia and of course Singapore only one and in Laos none While major established cities probably will receive the lion’s share of migration another aspect of rural-to-urban migration will be the rapid growth of smaller regional towns and cities into new urban centers These communities will face an even greater challenge than the large cities since by and large they lack the infrastructure or economic base to accommodate major rapid expansion This phenomenon may be especially prevalent in Thailand Despite Thailand’s fairly expansive territory and large population Bangkok is currently the sole major city but explosive growth will occur in regional cities in the hinterland over the next two decades Inland Migration Apart from rural-to-urban migration the other major aspect of climate change-induced internal migration in Southeast Asia will likely be a movement of population inland from the coasts The region’s coastal areas will become less hospitable and economically viable as a result of Sea-level rise increased storm activity declining fisheries and degradation of coastal ecosystems While many coastal cities may suffer periodic catastrophic events such as floods or major storms coastal fishing and farming communities will face such challenges as well as sustained climatic stress on their means of subsistence Rural coastal populations are therefore more likely to be forced to relocate In the next 20 years population retreats from receding coastlines will intensify the search for areas where potable ground water has been traditionally plentiful s creating social disorder Similarly many of the inhabitants of the region’s smaller islands are likely to relocate to larger islands or the mainland where there is more shelter from adverse weather and sea28 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views level rise more reliable sources of fresh water and greater economic opportunity The latter type of migration probably will be most significant in Indonesia and the Philippines Climate change-induced internal migration in Indonesia may result in a consolidation of population onto the larger islands with more resources and better infrastructure These migration patterns will overlay continued diffusion of population from overpopulated Java to Kalimantan Papua and elsewhere in the archipelago Indonesian internal migration has already proven to be a cause of ethnic conflict which is only to worsen In the Philippines major migration is probable from Palawan and other low-lying islands to Luzon and perhaps Mindanao—the latter raising a serious threat of increased sectarian conflict The majority of those displaced from coastal areas are likely to join the flow of rural population into the region’s major urban areas Some coastal farmers will instead move into rural areas farther inland where they will have to compete for land with established rural populations and may need to switch to new crops as well Vietnam is the country at greatest overall risk for mass inland migration The decimation of the Mekong Delta will push millions of Vietnamese north into Ho Chi Minh City and beyond into the Central Highlands as well as over the border into Cambodia A more generalized movement of ethnic Vietnamese from lowland to upland areas throughout the country will likely cause ethnic conflict or displacement of native ethnic minorities Prospects for Civil Conflict Increased socio-economic stress resulting from climate change-induced challenges will act as an accelerant or force multiplier for existing friction within the states of Southeast Asia The particular conflict dynamic through which this friction expresses itself will vary from state to state and locality to locality The variation in probable climatic impacts between internal regions and localities makes it inevitable that some climatechange induced challenges will be disproportionately felt by particular communities and groups within society When differential effects coincide with ethnic sectarian political or socio-economic divisions they could easily stoke existing resentment and lead to conflict Inadequate state responses to climate change-induced challenges may also feed civil unrest In most cases several varieties of conflict will be closely intertwined The more these circumstances are combined the more acute the risks of civil conflict The particular areas and groups most strongly driven toward conflict by climate change will depend on the severity of climatic effects at local levels which cannot as yet be accurately projected In overall regional terms however climatic stress will create more opportunities for social frictions to flare into civil conflicts A number of major underlying dynamics fuel the potential for civil conflict in Southeast Asia They are closely related and in most cases multiple dynamics will be active simultaneously All are susceptible to aggravation by climatic stress in the region Domestic Migration Domestic and cross-border migration may be the single greatest driver of civil conflict in Southeast Asia As has been previously noted climate change is likely to generate very large population shifts within the region In practice domestic and cross-border movements will be overlapping and many of the resulting conflicts will likely combine both civil and interstate elements In terms of intra-state migration the 29 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views intensity of potential conflict may depend in large part on how rapidly the movement of people occurs The movement of large numbers of environmental refugees into new areas already facing climatic stress is a potent recipe for civil conflict The more gradual the shift the more ability local and national societies and governments will have to adapt to a new distribution of population In cities whose populations swell beyond the capacity of their infrastructure and economies the added stress of periodic climateinduced shortages of water food or electricity or episodes of flooding or heat waves are likely to create an extremely volatile situation In rural areas already struggling to cope with disruptions to agriculture and water supplies migration is very likely to result in intense and often violent competition for land water and other necessities between established communities and newcomers Socio-economic Inequalities Climate change-induced challenges are likely to disproportionately affect the poor exacerbate existing economic inequalities and increase economic hardships This may increase the salience of socio-economic and class conflict which has not heretofore been a major catalyst for political conflict in Southeast Asia Class differences in the region have been mitigated by ethnic differences In addition societies in the region have traditionally mitigated socioeconomic differences using patronage Patron-client ties were a means of building trust and crossing the class divide between the haves and have-nots Patronage networks also provided a rudimentary social safety net that cushioned some of the adversities faced by the region’s poor The patronage system has deteriorated as populations have increased and become more urbanized and state funds available for patronage have decreased Southeast Asia’s poor are now more alienated from local elites disengaged from the political process and discontented This large reservoir of public disaffection can be mobilized behind a wide array of grievances In the Philippines the lingering Communist-based insurgency will take advantage of rural poverty In Thailand the socio-economic and rural-urban split persists and shows no signs of dissipating particularly as long as deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is politically active Majority-Minority Dynamics With few exceptions the states of Southeast Asia are ethnically diverse Ethnic conflict between majority and minority groups is an ongoing problem that could become significantly worse when combined with climatic stress Such conflicts may revolve around control of critical resources economic disparities discrimination and limited opportunities or access to the political process The more common majority-minority dynamic involves marginalization persecution or attempts at forcible assimilation of minority groups by the dominant majority For example political control in both Laos and Vietnam rests with the lowland ethnic majority while highland minorities are marginalized The bloodiest and most persistent majority-minority conflicts in the region have been between the Bamar majority in Burma and a host of ethnic minorities such as the Karen Kachin and Shan In other cases the overall majority group exerts dominance even in regions where it is not the majority this is the case with Malay dominance in East Malaysia where Bumiputra minorities form the majority of the local population 30 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Successful minorities may also face persecution both from resentful majorities or other disaffected minority groups The most prominent example is the ethnic Chinese diaspora throughout the region which has enjoyed considerable commercial success The ethnic Chinese face resentment from groups of rural origin who are less well established in business and urban commerce This has led to sporadic outbreaks of anti-Chinese violence particularly in Indonesia Sectarian divisions play less of a role in most areas but there are notable exceptions The sectarian majority-minority conflict in the southern Philippines between the Catholic majority and the Muslim Moros has been a perennial driver of insurgency political instability and terrorism The Muslim minority in southern Thailand is engaged in a similar conflict with the Buddhist majority This revolt has intensified in the last year damaging Thailand’s reputation as well as draining government resources In the Central Highlands of Vietnam ethnic and sectarian divisions coincide with Catholic highlander minority groups threatened by an influx of secular Kinh ethnic Vietnamese lowlanders Climate change-induced Kinh migration into the minority-dominated uplands is likely to worsen ethnic divisions in Vietnam Marginalized groups whether they are in the numerical majority or minority face an intrinsically greater risk from climate change They are typically more economically disadvantaged enjoy a narrower margin of subsistence have less political influence and are less likely to receive state assistance The need to respond to climatic stress may reinforce ethnic solidarity built up in the face of pre-existing adversity and exacerbate shared grievances potentially leading to conflict Core-Periphery Dynamics Most of the states in Southeast Asia comprise a more economically developed and populous “core” area typically centered on the capital city and a less developed periphery The dominance of power wealth and resources by narrow political and economic elites located in the core puts the periphery in a far less advantageous position to face climate change The political dynamic between core and periphery could therefore be crucial in how states and societies in the region respond to climate change Peripheral areas are geographically politically and economically remote from the heartlands and capitals of states in the region These areas are typically underdeveloped have poor infrastructure little access to government services and fewer economic opportunities They are likely to be dependent on either subsistence agriculture or natural resource extraction such as logging or mining These features make peripheral areas highly vulnerable to climate change-induced challenges Localized impacts in peripheral areas such as water shortages or agricultural stress are often ignored by the central government magnifying the adverse effects At the same time communities in peripheral areas face the risk of greater marginalization as climatic stress forces governments to focus on threats to more proximate and politically and economically influential regions The inhabitants of peripheral areas could easily respond to increased climatic stress and lack of central government aid with local unrest anti-state insurgency or demands for regional autonomy or secession 31 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The core-periphery dynamic is also closely linked to the majority-minority dynamic creating a mutually reinforcing source of conflict From hill tribes to Dayaks ethnic minorities are often concentrated in peripheral areas Core-periphery disparities are therefore often viewed through an ethnic lens The highland regions of Laos and Vietnam are a classic example of ethnic minority concentration in disadvantaged peripheral areas A similar dynamic has helped drive long-standing conflicts in Burma The military government and ethnic majority dominate the central basin of the Irrawaddy River The Arakan Hills to the west and the extensive highlands along the Thai and Chinese borders to the east are inhabited by disadvantaged and marginalized minority groups who have warred continually with the state Thailand faces a Muslim insurgency in its peripheral southern provinces on the Malay Peninsula and unrest in the highland northeast fed by spillover from Burma In the future Bangkok might face unrest in the agricultural northeastern Isan region which retains ethnic ties to Laos despite assimilation policies and is largely dependent on the threatened Mekong River The fact that the Thai Government regards the Chao Phraya River as a “Thai” river while the Mekong is seen as a peripheral “minorities” river affects the policy priority Thailand places on the Mekong issue Most of the vast archipelagoes of Indonesia and the Philippines consist of peripheral areas These areas are also among those likely to suffer most from climatic impacts such as sea-level rise shifts in forest belts coastal degradation and water and agricultural stress Borneo is a peripheral area for both Malaysia and Indonesia and faces severe environmental threats particularly from deforestation Indonesia probably has the greatest potential for wide-ranging core-periphery conflict Most of Indonesia’s population is concentrated on Java and Sumatra with half the country’s population on Java alone State control is tenuous and tensions and sporadic conflicts are endemic in Aceh in far northwestern Sumatra Kalimantan Indonesian Borneo Sulawesi the Maluku islands and Papua Peripheral islands like the Malukus and Sulawesi have limited water and arable land and are particularly vulnerable to climate change Ethnic and sectarian frictions could be exacerbated on these islands especially if the government reinstates some sort of transmigration policy to relieve population pressures on Java In the Philippines the Muslim southern periphery of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago is a perennial source of conflict and terrorism Climatic stress is likely to exacerbate conflict in Mindanao Resource Competition and Scarcity Natural resources have historically been relatively abundant in Southeast Asia In recent decades however resources have come under severe strain as a result of population growth and unrestrained unsustainable resource exploitation Resource depletion has been most apparent in rampant deforestation and overfishing both of which have reached crisis proportions Climate change appears set not only to exacerbate problems facing these already depleted natural resources but to introduce significant scarcity in additional critical areas such as food water and arable land Even resources that are not anticipated to decline across the region—such as water—will be subject to local shortages and stress 32 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Resource competition could play out at a number of social levels A diminished pool of resources will likely increase the prospects for conflict between individual farmers and fishermen potentially destabilizing local communities Inter-communal violence and seizure of land water resources livestock or fishing grounds will likely increase at the village level Smallholders may attempt to seize land or water from larger owners generating conflict between local groups and local or even national elites Where control over resources coincides with ethnic or sectarian divisions resource competition may erupt into ethnic conflicts Ethnic nationalism remains highly salient in the region often encouraged by state policies that reinforce ethnic and regional differences and provides a vehicle to aggregate and mobilize individual grievances over resource distribution Overall competition for scarce resources could become a significant source of rural unrest throughout the region Research in Indonesia has shown that land and water conflicts are already increasing particularly in remote areas with water shortages Coastal and deltaic regions are likely to face the greatest natural resource challenges as a result of climate change Those areas face not only degradation of fish stocks and coastal ecosystems but also wholesale loss of arable land and living space to the sea Large-scale social unrest is possible in coastal communities particularly the most threatened areas such as the deltas of Vietnam or Burma Coastal and deltaic regions may not necessarily be the most prone to resource conflicts since the loss of land and livelihood is likely to force the local population to migrate elsewhere Conflict may prove more prevalent in agricultural areas further inland where much of the rural population will attempt to persevere in the face of climatic stress while migrants from areas such as the coasts will move in Cambodia may be particularly vulnerable to this sort of scenario with internal conflict driven by agricultural stress exacerbated by a large influx of Vietnamese fleeing the Mekong Delta In addition to competition over resources necessary for subsistence competition for resource rents is also likely to increase Economic instability and stress on traditional revenue sources such as agricultural products will put a premium on control of lucrative commodities such as oil and gas timber and minerals Much of this conflict will be between elites and business and criminal elements rather than farmers or laborers The local population will nevertheless be profoundly affected by the resulting violence and interruptions in employment and revenues Conflict over resources will not be confined to rural areas Faced with burgeoning populations cities will need to drastically increase their resource intake This will probably manifest itself most acutely in terms of access to water resources Competition between cities is likely to increase significantly and within cities periodic shortages are likely to generate protests and rioting In addition climate change is likely to generate considerable conflict over access to employment As cities experience massive influxes of new labor and agricultural or fishing employment dries up or becomes unreliable jobs are likely to become very scarce in many areas Large unemployed segments of the urban population represent an acute threat to social stability Violence may be directed particularly at commercially successful urban minorities as has occurred periodically against ethnic Chinese in Indonesia 33 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views State Responses The challenges associated with predicted climate change to 2030 will put severe pressure on the states of Southeast Asia Climate change will not only exacerbate existing socioeconomic and environmental problems facing the states of the region but simultaneously create a host of new challenges for them to respond to Adaptive or maladaptive state responses to the challenges of climate change in Southeast Asia will be a test of good governance political will and state capacity State Decisionmaking Although the governments in the region vary widely in terms of their structure capacity stability and approaches to policymaking power traditionally tends to be concentrated in the hands of narrow governing elites which steer the developmental paths of their countries and set state policy The nature and effectiveness of state responses to climate change in Southeast Asia will depend primarily on the decisions and priorities of those governing elites Good governance entails the formulation and implementation to the degree possible given the state’s resource base of political social and economic policies clearly designed to promote the public good In Southeast Asia public policies more often are intended to promote the interests of the ruling elite and vested economic interests than the public good States in the region share a bureaucratic hierarchical structure that insulates decision-makers from pressure by the public and civil society State leaders will be loath to contravene the interests of powerful elites for the sake of climate change mitigation The lack of leadership capacity and political will to take politically or economically painful measures to address climate change will likely prove one of the most significant obstacles to effective state responses In addition greed incompetence and ingrained corruption play a major role in government decision-making across the region often trumping objective cost-effective planning and administration State Priorities In most Southeast Asian states the most important—although usually unstated—state priority is to maintain the political and economic power of the ruling elites Although this is accomplished in part through varying levels of state coercion economic legitimacy is a more important overall pillar of elite control Economic development is the principal overt state priority in the region both in developed states such as Singapore and those struggling to overcome an agrarian Communist past such as Laos or Vietnam The governing elites in the region maintain their public legitimacy through the promise of economic growth and increasing prosperity as well as by disbursing subsidies and funding poverty alleviation For example the Vietnamese Communist Party knows that unless it improves the standard of living of the Vietnamese people its political power will be in jeopardy The region’s “development first” mentality has fostered general disregard for sustainability or environmental damage even in the face of pressure from international actors or civil society or such obvious adverse effects as “the haze ” Climate change which has yet to manifest major tangible effects is even more easily dismissed by skeptical leaders in the region For example even though Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change most Indonesian policymakers have yet to show evidence of serious 34 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views alarm or urgency As a result climate change will remain at best a secondary priority until its effects begin to demonstrably challenge state security and economic viability in the region Nevertheless regional states are beginning to show greater concern about environmental challenges such as public health food security or water management Even if policymakers have yet to link these discrete environmental issues to climate change action to address such issues will have beneficial collateral effects in adapting to future climate change Taking into account the limited urgency accorded to environmental and climatic issues there is nevertheless significant variation between the states in the region These issues are taken most seriously in Vietnam Singapore and the Philippines Driven primarily by concerns over the fate of the Mekong River Vietnam has recently shown more alertness to environmental challenges than its neighbors It is not yet clear whether Hanoi’s concerns over the Mekong will translate into a proactive stance on broader environmental and climatic issues in the region Singapore is more serious about environmental issues due to its constrained geography and lack of direct dependence on resource exploitation The Philippine Government is aware of the country’s vulnerability to climate change and takes it seriously due to its long experience with environmental disasters but lacks political will Climate change is less of a priority in Thailand Laos Cambodia and Burma Indonesia’s international rhetoric on the issue has not yet translated into genuine domestic policy motivation As an oil exporter and one of the region’s least vulnerable states to climate change Malaysia has largely ignored the issue Changing Leadership Perspectives on Climate Change The prevailing attitude toward climate change among most Southeast Asian leaders is dismissal Continuing international debate over the causes and effects of climate change and equivocal or contradictory scientific data encourage skepticism on the part of policymakers Most lack technical backgrounds and tend to dismiss scientific or technical reports Over the next two decades however a number of dynamics may shift leadership perspectives on climate change First and foremost as climate change unfolds in Southeast Asia leaders will be presented with increasing evidence of the threat it poses to their states Nevertheless climate change will in many cases need to generate major socio-political challenges or economic impacts before states in the region muster the political will to respond For example the Thai state is likely to address the issue when its surplus agriculture and aquaculture industries start to see significant downturns in output or in the face of socio-political schisms from an event such as a major drought in the Isan region If climate change is mainly gradual and incremental leaders may adjust to the “new normal” without mustering the political will to make drastic decisions on climate change mitigation A dramatic shift in perspectives could result from one or more unprecedented catastrophic events attributable to climate change Such events would provide tangible examples of the systemic threats to social political and economic well-being Possible examples include a mass crop failure a collapse of regional fisheries or a climate change-induced disaster affecting a concentrated population such as a massive urban flood Disastrous climatic events may shift overall elite attitudes or alternatively generate splits within the ruling elite Conflicts between elite factions may be generated 35 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views or exacerbated by debates over how to respond effectively to climatic challenges Such conflicts may significantly influence the political direction in some Southeast Asian states In Thailand for example the 2004 tsunami discredited the political opposition facilitating the re-election of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Climate change may become part of a broader clash between “old” and “new” thinkers among elites Cyclone Nargis provides an example of these dynamics at work The storm shifted the attitude of the Burmese junta on how to respond to humanitarian disasters and the importance of climatic issues Cyclone Nargis also split the junta over how much foreign assistance to admit Leadership perspectives may also shift over the next several decades due to generational turnover A younger generation of leaders who emerge in a context of increasingly apparent climatic changes may be more concerned about climate change mitigation and muster the political will to take on entrenched elites who perpetuate unsustainable practices For example Indonesia’s dynamic President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has set as his priorities poverty alleviation development and environmental preservation in that order The current Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung from Ca Mau province on the tip of the Mekong Delta is extremely concerned about the damming of the Mekong and its potential effects on the Delta Not all generational leadership transitions will be so constructive In Thailand the passing of King Bhumibol currently 81 years old and in poor health may generate extraordinary political unrest The succession may threaten Thailand’s ability to cope with the global climate change challenges of the next few years if not longer Political Responses to Climate Change The need to mobilize popular support and resources behind large-scale costly climate change mitigation policies will inevitably politicize the climate change issue While political mobilization is necessary and will boost adaptive capacity over-politicization could lead to policies driven by political advantage rather than efficient climate change mitigation Scarce resources could be diverted to corrupt ineffective pork barrel projects which provide no climatic benefits For example if Vietnam’s National Assembly continues its slow rise to prominence it could become a locus for rampant pork barrel resource allocation Because climate change-induced challenges will have different impacts in different regions and localities governments will be compelled to make difficult resource allocation choices Such decisions may become highly politicized and perceptions of favoritism could provoke inter-regional or center-peripheral conflicts As both leaders and populations in the region are more forcefully confronted with climatic and resource challenges they are likely to respond with increasing economic and environmental nationalism Such responses are most likely in Indonesia Vietnam and Burma Nationalistic responses could either help or hurt efforts at climate change mitigation and conservation On the one hand nationalism is a basis to argue for protecting and conserving the nation’s sovereign natural resources and environment On the other hand it is a means for entrenched elites to gain legitimacy and counter criticism from civil society or outside actors on environmental issues Leaders could argue that outsiders or domestic malcontents are attempting to limit the nation’s sovereign right to exploit its own resources in order to develop 36 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Governments in Southeast Asia have varying degrees of authoritarian and democratic elements and could respond to climate change-induced challenges by leaning in either direction Climate change-induced political instability could lead to coups and regime changes but changes in the overall structure of government are less likely For example the single-party political systems in Vietnam and Laos will likely persist to 2030 and beyond The conditions of global climate change may in some respects favor the prospects of such enlightened despotisms or police states more than democratic regimes The greater the repressive capabilities of the state the easier it may be for it to ride out the socio-political consequences associated with climatic shifts as well as pursue broad sustained mitigation and adaptation programs On the other hand cracking down without effectively addressing the underlying problem could lead to a degenerative spiral of destabilization More open forms of government have greater accountability and are better able to cooperate with society to effectively tackle large-scale changes and challenges—the state is able to share the burden of response with civil society Conversely greater institutional responsiveness and accountability may also restrain the state from using its capacity to full effect or overcoming civil resistance to necessary but unpopular climate change mitigation measures Ultimately there is no guarantee that the varied political systems in the region will be able to come up with a balanced approach to coping with climate change either domestically or regionally State Capacity The states of Southeast Asia have widely varying levels of overall capacity to meet climate change-induced challenges Raw state capacity correlates strongly with economic development At the high end Singapore’s proportionate state capacity probably exceeds that of many Western states Conversely poverty-stricken Laos has extremely limited state capacity In general terms Malaysia Thailand and Vietnam fall toward the high end of the spectrum between Laos and Singapore while Indonesia and the Philippines occupy the middle and Burma and Cambodia are at the lower end In practice however simply ranking the raw resources and capabilities available to states in Southeast Asia may paint a misleading picture State capacity will depend on specific decision-making on the mobilization and management of human and physical resource and will be significantly constrained by widespread deficiencies in governance and political will Governments in the region have a long track record of inability or unwillingness to deal with social political economic and environmental issues They may not confront the challenges of the future any more effectively than those of the past and present Even where states muster the will to tap into the inherent adaptive capacity of their states and societies the leadership’s political capability to move the institutions of the state to carry out mitigation policies may be limited The center cannot drive enforcement along the periphery by itself doing so requires the involvement of local and provincial governments as well as the judiciary police armed forces and others These potential enforcers are often part of the problem State responses will be most significantly constrained by such factors in the same underdeveloped countries where inherent capacity is already weakest 37 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In many areas state capacity has been hollowed out or eroded by corruption and criminal activities Corruption is widespread at all levels of government in the region Many key industries in Southeast Asia such as logging or mining operate at least partially illegally In Indonesia for example corruption plagues the nexus of the government and the timber industry despite promises of reform Local and even national authorities are beholden to the international criminal networks that control Indonesian mining and logging Rampant criminality and corruption are particularly severe in Burma Cambodia and Laos The Cambodian regime is more of a criminal conspiracy than a government—corrupt weak in capacity and lacking transparency Burma traditionally a leading opium producer is now one of the world’s leading producers of methamphetamines and Laos continues to be a major opium producer In terms of individual state capacity levels Singapore has the human capital national resilience and political will to deal with the challenges of climate change but depends on its neighbors for resources Vietnam is a strong state with a much improved infrastructure and reserve of human capital The government has the political will and capacity to marshal resources and respond quickly to challenges but it remains a poor country with constrained state resources Malaysia and Thailand are also fairly strong states with robust national infrastructures plenty of human capital and the capacity to marshal resources effectively should a crisis emerge Indonesia has a weaker state capacity lacks political will and the technical competence of the Indonesian government bureaucracy is questionable The public health sector is weak the government is unable to stem deforestation and there is so far only moderate capacity for agricultural innovation The Indonesian government exhibits a systemic failure to translate rhetorical policies into actual policies Nevertheless democracy has been firmly established and the government’s capacity to deal with the effects of climate change is improving Laos Cambodia Burma and the Philippines are unlikely to be able to respond in time or cope with the consequences of climate change absent strong political will and outside assistance The Philippine state is hampered by a fractious and disorganized government abysmal national infrastructure and very weak resource management Burma remains a weak underdeveloped state fractured by decades of civil conflict but the military regime can mobilize the limited state capacity to address issues when necessary Neither Cambodia nor Laos have much in the way of human capital national resilience or political will to deal with the issues of global climate change They will be highly reactive and heavily dependent on foreign assistance and aid programs Laos in particular has an inadequate infrastructure particularly in rural areas the nation has no railroads a rudimentary road system and limited external and internal telecommunications Laos’ poverty inadequate infrastructure and dependence on subsistence agriculture make it arguably the country with the least ability to cope with climate change-induced challenges Financial Resources Besides material resources the states of Southeast Asia will need considerable financial resources to address the problems of climate change For the region’s less economically developed states these resources will have to come from overseas donors Burma for example may become more financially dependent on China Not only are many climatic impacts likely to be very expensive to address but 38 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views their secondary effects on the region’s economy and resources may also reduce revenues creating considerable pressures on state budgets Pressures on public finances are likely to produce deficits in the delivery of public goods such as education and health care The need for new sources of income may trigger a vicious cycle of dependence on unsustainable resources that trigger more intense climate change effects Most Southeast Asian states depend to varying degrees on natural resource rents but the region’s resource bases are depleting Climate change will further narrow the resource base exacerbating shortages of land and resources Deforestation is already producing acute stress in areas such as East Malaysia that depend on the dwindling timber industry Much will depend on how well states in the region are able to manage their diminishing resources For example Timor-Leste has managed its oil resources relatively well while Cambodia is sitting on reasonable oil wealth that is disappearing into a black hole rather than adding to state capacity Cambodia’s oil revenues largely disappear into the personal bank accounts of Prime Minister Hun Sen The Judicial System The capacity of Southeast Asia’s court systems to manage local conflicts arising from climate change will be a pivotal dynamic in determining whether climatic challenges lead to internal instability In the Philippines for example the judicial system has handled many important environmental cases The courts will face a significant increase in disputes related to climatic and environmental issues and their consequences Unfortunately the region’s court systems tend to be weak and corrupt lacking in competence independence efficiency and resources The courts have little capacity to override even local officials and the relevance of their rulings depends on the often limited willingness and ability of the executive authorities to implement them The Military The lack of well-developed civil disaster response capabilities in many states in Southeast Asia means that the military will in many cases act as the first responder and logistic facilitator for state responses to climate change-related incidents In addition the prospects for large-scale heterogeneous civil unrest and even interstate conflict as a result of climate change mean that the military will be a key element in maintaining state security Singapore has the most capable and professional armed forces in the region The armed forces in most other countries in the region are beset by corruption politicization profit-seeking activity and a lack of resources and training These institutional problems severely limit the capacity of military forces in Southeast Asia to respond effectively to climate change-induced challenges Military coups have been a common feature of Southeast Asia’s politics Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand was unseated by a coup in 2006 The military rules outright in Burma as it did in Indonesia for much of the country’s history The imposition of military rule in the event of major national crises arising from climate change is a distinct possibility in most states in the region Most of the region’s armed forces are also heavily involved in legal and illegal economic activity including drug production and trafficking logging and other extractive industries that could align the military against climate change mitigation efforts In many cases military units are forced to resort to self-financing due to chronic budget shortfalls but weak state oversight also allows endemic corruption 39 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views In recent years military reform has taken place in some of the region’s militaries The Indonesian military is showing some movement toward shedding its legacy of corruption and politicization aided by moves to fully fund the military budget It remains unclear whether reforms will filter down to the local level which in many areas is dominated by corruption and criminality Crisis Response More so than the sustained incremental effects of climate change large-scale crises generated by extreme weather events or ecological or socio-political tipping points will pose a serious threat to state stability in Southeast Asia Given the limitations in state capacity across the region such crises will sorely test state responses as well as divert resources from other development goals and create an atmosphere of sustained political uncertainty States in the region have varying capacity to cope with crises and for those that cannot cope effectively the consequences may be large-scale humanitarian disasters For example Indonesia was able to cope with the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami albeit with heavy reliance on assistance from foreign donors and civil society groups In contrast Burma failed a similar test with 2008’s Cyclone Nargis— most of the deaths were caused by the failed state response rather than the cyclone itself These and other natural disasters that have struck Southeast Asia over the last few years have prompted efforts to improve disaster response Singapore Malaysia and to a lesser extent Thailand have strong capacity to respond to environmental catastrophes and are also less at risk than other states in the region Vietnam has growing competence in disaster response and emergency management although its resources are limited The governments of the Philippines Laos and Cambodia have limited capacity to respond to natural disasters and are among the states most at risk from such challenges Decentralized Implementation Central governments face a variety of structural obstacles to effective policy implementation and enforcement The state apparatus in most Southeast Asian countries tends strongly toward inertia and implementation and enforcement capabilities are in most cases weak In addition Indonesia Thailand and Vietnam have undertaken decentralization programs in recent years which have transferred critical powers away from the central governments Decentralization constrains the ability of the central government to transfer resources and funds from those parts of the country least affected by climate change to adaptation programs in areas experiencing difficulties Moreover decentralization increases reliance on the will and capacity of local levels of government for implementation Local capacity varies widely In places such as West Kalimantan income from natural resources has produced an effective government that has significantly improved public services In other places local governments are controlled by powerful political or economic interests that squander public resources Decentralization also results in competition for access to resources funding and authority between local jurisdictions In Jakarta for example multiple jurisdictions of authority in management of land within the city boundaries limit investment in infrastructure and render the city more vulnerable to climate change Climate Change Mitigation Policies Effective comprehensive national climate change mitigation policies face difficult political hurdles Not only will mitigation measures require very ambitious planning and resource allocation far in advance of the catastrophic observable impacts but tangible 40 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views results from such measures may take decades to emerge States in the region have yet to begin serious planning for such eventualities but current trends and climatic projections suggest a wide array of areas in which state climate change mitigation action will be needed Substantial innovation will be needed to adapt the region’s agricultural systems and rural communities to the new more variable conditions anticipated due to climate change Traditional agricultural models may no longer be viable and subsistence-level farmers may lack the capacity to adapt on their own In many cases the state will need to step in to provide advice on new farming practices and access to new crops more suited to the new conditions identify new growing areas and potentially resettle farmers Climate change-induced constraints will necessitate improving the efficiency of agricultural water use Thai agriculture is already in the process of commercializing making it more resilient than subsistence-oriented agriculture elsewhere in the region Vietnam is coming to terms with the changing circumstances better than other Southeast Asian countries but the government faces an immediate food and security challenge as the majority of the population lives in the vulnerable river deltas Many of Southeast Asia’s existing forests will perish over the next 20 years whether from deforestation or climate change Some countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have already begun reforestation programs but others such as Cambodia Laos and parts of Indonesia may face the loss of all significant forest cover before such programs are under way Rather than replacing previously indigenous species of trees adaptation will require reforestation with different species appropriate to new growing conditions Serious efforts also will be needed to reduce the burning of forests and peat bogs— progress on that front could bring about a major reduction in regional emissions without sacrificing economic development Regional states will face simultaneous large-scale needs for improvements to urban coastal transportation and water management infrastructure all of which will be extraordinarily expensive and potentially disruptive Water resource management is one of the most fundamental and daunting climate change mitigation challenges facing the states of Southeast Asia Southeast Asian states will need to rely far more heavily on manmade water management infrastructure to distribute water resources rather than on natural drainage patterns In most states this will require the construction of whole new systems of reservoirs dams canals water pipelines and aqueducts Water conservation will become a priority and variable precipitation will force increased exploitation of groundwater resources To combat more frequent flooding flood management infrastructure will need to be improved both inland and on coast Water treatment irrigation and transportation systems will need to be reinforced against flooding States will need to construct extensive levees canals and seawalls to protect their coasts and ports from sea-level rise Concurrently states will need to plan for major urban population growth Water treatment and distribution power housing urban transportation public health and food distribution will need to be rapidly expanded to avoid major degradation of urban living conditions that are already tenuous in many parts of the region Education and job training will be needed to prepare rural population for urban employment as will state investment and subsidies to urban industries such as 41 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views green manufacturing to provide that employment As cities expand construction will be a major employer of incoming rural labor States may also need to develop planned resettlement programs away from threatened coastal and rural areas to avoid destabilizing uncoordinated mass migrations The historical legacy of Suharto-era Indonesia’s transmigration Transmigrasi program will make it extremely difficult for any future government to undertake a similar program The program which relocated millions of people from overpopulated Java and Madura to less populated areas was plagued by mismanagement and corruption and ultimately ignited ethnic conflict in many areas Climate change will drive mass migration and resettlement whether or not the states seek to manage it Even poor state management may be better than none The country most in need of massive resettlement planning is Vietnam The country’s Ho Chi Minh City Metropolitan Area development plan envisions building up the city into an urban center the size of New York City If pursued aggressively such a plan could help absorb the millions who will be displaced from the Mekong Delta and other coastal areas Given limitations on state capacity political will and policy implementation in many Southeast Asian states the most likely outcome appears to be a delayed or less than effective response to climate change in the region Constraints of time funds and resources dictate that the states of Southeast Asia will only be able to undertake a limited number of the mitigation measure outlined above—in effect states will need to conduct national triage Regardless the region will require major injections of assistance from outside powers to effectively cope with climate change to 2030 even on a constrained basis Prospects for State Failure Climate change to 2030 will have severely disruptive effects in Southeast Asia particularly in deltas and coastal areas The impact of the severe localized effects that climate change causes is significantly magnified when such changes occur within a small state that depends on a limited resource population and agricultural base Some states in Southeast Asia are less capable of responding to climate change and some may not succeed in adapting Absolute state failure is unlikely barring a catastrophic climatic event States in the region are more likely to suffer temporary state breakdowns the failure of local constituent governments and probable long-term instability At the very least states will suffer more frequent and unpredictable challenges and will have to bolster state responsiveness planning and awareness or risk undermining regime credibility The prospect of state failures is not as alarming to regional leaders as might be expected since most have taken precautions to avoid facing the consequences of their policy mistakes The states with the greatest potential for severe instability and those most at risk for state failure are not necessarily the same Vietnam for example faces among the most serious challenges to 2030 and is likely to suffer massive population displacement and food and water stress The Vietnamese state however is strong motivated and used to perseverance so it is unlikely to fail Prime Minister Hun Sen’s grip on political power in Cambodia is ruthless and firm and will be further strengthened if off-shore oil and 42 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views natural gas resources are developed successfully In contrast states such as Laos or Timor-Leste may suffer comparatively milder challenges but their weak state capacity limited resources and narrow margin of subsistence make failure more likely TimorLeste with its relatively immature political system is the most likely state in the region to fail particularly if it absorbs major collateral challenges from Indonesia Laos and Cambodia have dealt with precarious situations for much of the last several decades Both may have a reserve of resilience to persist at a very low functional level even in the face of severe disruption Whether the formal state survives or not that such an outcome would be tantamount to state failure in terms of the impact on the population Burma also faces a major risk of state failure due to the combination of an unpopular autocratic regime international isolation extreme levels of corruption and crime and well-established ethnic insurgencies already in control of large swathes of territory The junta has negotiated what it calls “peace agreements” with many of these ethnic minorities In most cases these do not extend the center’s authority into the ethnic areas nor create peace but permit some minority groups to profit from resource extraction and drug trafficking while giving the junta a portion of the profits Climate change will likely intensify existing conflicts between the Bamar majority and the ethnic groups along the periphery as well as between the repressive military regime and its citizens In addition the likelihood of spillover from catastrophic instability in neighboring Bangladesh further erodes Burma’s prospects Although unlikely state failure in Indonesia would pose the most serious challenge to the region Indonesia is a fairly robust state with considerable resources and capabilities but its heterogeneous and geographically non-contiguous nature makes it particularly prone to localized failures Rather than an outright collapse a state failure in Indonesia is far more likely to take the form of disintegration Inter-communal tensions could spiral out of control in areas where climatic stress is expected to be most severe such as the eastern portion of the archipelago including the Malukus Sulawesi and Papua Jakarta’s administrative relevancy and authority already attenuated by decentralization could erode altogether in these peripheral areas of the archipelago The viability of the state itself could be put at risk as it was after the collapse of the Suharto regime and it might splinter between local governments and military warlords Singapore is in the best position to remain stable in the face of climate change—it is run by a powerful authoritarian government while facing few challenges Malaysia is similarly well situated to overcome climate change-induced challenges Although Thailand and the Philippines may be more prone to instability and face moments of crisis they are also unlikely to fail Regional Implications Prospects for Regional Climate Change Cooperation Regional cooperation will be necessary to effectively address climate change in Southeast Asia Despite the existence of a regional multilateral organization the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN prospects for effective regional cooperation are mixed Events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or outbreaks of pandemic disease have spurred some steps toward expanding regional cooperation and state planning 43 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Apart from humanitarian crisis response and public health however regional cooperation in Southeast Asia has been mainly rhetorical Political will to tackle climate change remains limited and regional cooperation is lower on the agenda than domestic responses Regimes in the region are motivated by self-interest rather than concerns over regional public goods In the absence of a tipping point generated by a climate change-induced catastrophe the path toward cooperation in the region is likely to proceed at a cautious limited pace The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN As the political face of Southeast Asian multilateralism ASEAN appears to offer a promising institutional base from which to address climate change-related issues It already has extensive bureaucratic structures in place intended to deal with climatic and environmental issues ASEAN’s environment programs include working groups on Coastal and Maritime Environments Environmentally Sustainable Cities Nature Conservation and Biodiversity and Water Resources Management ASEAN has expressed considerable rhetorical concern about climate change but its track record in dealing with regional environmental issues is weak In the past 20 years ASEAN has not implemented any programs to address climate change ASEAN’s paralysis in part reflects the low priority of climate change among its member states and in part the organization’s structure It was designed as a deliberately weak institution inhibited from interfering with the sovereign independence of its member states ASEAN is and will remain a consensus-based organization leading to slow lowest common denominator policymaking The member states retain individual discretion to implement any initiatives adopted by ASEAN which in many cases means they are not effectively enforced For example five years of discussion of the disastrous 1997 forest fires and the resulting regional “haze” resulted in a weak ASEAN Agreement on Trans-boundary Haze Pollution in 2002 Indonesia the primary offender behind the “haze” still refuses to ratify this watered-down agreement Meanwhile the “haze” continues to afflict the region every fire season These sorts of results are typical of ASEAN’s environmental efforts Public health is the one major transnational area in which ASEAN has been effective Climate change will put greater pressure on ASEAN to respond to bilateral conflicts transnational issues and humanitarian challenges ASEAN’s response to Cyclone Nargis in 2008 demonstrated its utility as a facilitator for multilateral crisis response increasing the organization’s institutional self-confidence and setting a precedent for a more active role ASEAN may play a similar role in response to future climate change-induced crises but its institutional constraints limit how quickly and effectively it can respond and its prospects for improvement are not encouraging To effectively address climate change on a regional basis Southeast Asia either needs a radical reform of ASEAN or a new more robust multilateral organization States in the region would need to accept a multilateral framework with genuine oversight and enforcement powers It would need to engage outside powers such as China and the United States to be effective ASEAN and its constituent structures such as the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia TAC provide a viable basis upon which to build such a framework 44 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views China’s Role in Southeast Asia Although some of the transnational challenges the region will have to cope with to 2030 will play out between states within Southeast Asia many also will involve China China is the most influential external Asian actor in Southeast Asia and its involvement in the region will increase by 2030 China’s influence runs through nearly every major regional issue in Southeast Asia including two of the most critical and contentious—control of the Mekong River and of the South China Sea China’s expanding presence in Southeast Asia is a spillover effect of China’s economic dynamism as much as it is a product of a grand strategy China seeks markets for its goods profitable investment opportunities and access to natural resources Southeast Asian economies are becoming increasingly dependent on China which will erode the ability of countries in the region to stand up to China’s policies China is in an advantageous position to compete for resources and protect its economic interests against local actors As a result China may continue to extract a wide range of Southeast Asian resources even as local states experience climate change-induced scarcity China’s diversified resource extraction presence in Southeast Asia links it to a wide range of sectors including fishing timber mining fossil fuels agriculture and hydropower As climate change exacerbates challenges in these sectors China may take much of the blame for adverse environmental effects in the region For example Vietnam may be set to lose the Mekong Delta to climate change regardless of whether China or other countries build upstream dams Vietnamese leaders and citizens may nevertheless prefer to blame human agency rather than impersonal climatic forces Over time the degree to which Southeast Asians blame China for regional challenges could significantly shift the relationship between Beijing and the states in the region China’s heavy-handed stance and perceived contribution to climate change could arouse considerable nationalist resentment in the region and generate an anti-Chinese backlash especially in Vietnam Indonesia and Malaysia Such a reaction against China’s exploitative resource policy in Southeast Asia could threaten China’s economic interests in the region In many respects China’s prioritization of economic interests extractive resource policies and inattention to sustainability or collateral effects mirrors the policy perspectives prevalent in most states in Southeast Asia Like most regional states China has little intrinsic interest in climate change in the region This could change if turmoil from climate change begins to spill over into southern China or disrupts China’s access to critical resources China’s response however could be to suppress or control the problem rather than try to solve it Even if it is couched in the softer terms of a “regional sphere of influence ” the reality of increasing Chinese dominance in Southeast Asia will be one of the central political factors in Southeast Asia to 2030 China’s dam construction appears likely to ultimately result in Chinese control over the water system of Asia Control of access to critical water resources will put the downstream countries of mainland Southeast Asia at China’s mercy This assumption of direct control over water may be replicated in other sectors as well China is developing ports roads and oil pipelines in Burma with the aim of creating a strategic link between China’s Yunnan Province and the Indian Ocean China 45 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views increasingly exerts de facto suzerainty over the northern areas of Laos and Burma through its plantations and economic presence if not by overt policy China’s uncompromising position on the damming of the Mekong River and its assertiveness in the South China Sea may generate tensions between China and states in the region China’s relations with regional states are mixed It is Burma’s key ally and benefactor providing substantial military and economic aid The governments of Laos and Cambodia are closely tied to China but the people are not Leaders in Thailand are confident about their ability to deal with China The states likely to prove most intransigent are Vietnam and Indonesia rising powers with strong national identities and contentious histories with China Vietnam and China have competed for influence in Southeast Asia since the 1970s and have engaged in periodic maritime and border clashes including an ill-fated Chinese invasion in 1979 China’s dam-building on the Mekong River poses a profound even existential threat to Vietnam Indonesia perceives itself as the natural leader and regional hegemon in Southeast Asia putting it at odds with China’s ascendance toward regional hegemony Regional Migration Southeast Asia already faces a regional migration problem in the form of illegal crossborder migration Cambodia and Laos face illegal migration and incursions from Vietnam Vietnam in turn is concerned with increasing numbers of migrants from Cambodia in the south and China in the north Thailand faces significant security threats from Muslim separatists in southern Thailand crossing back and forth over the Malaysian border and major refugee flows and illegal crossings from Burma The flow of illegal migrants brings with it criminal activity particularly human and drug trafficking Climate change-induced challenges will contribute to pressures for cross-border migration creating the potential for regional conflict Southeast Asia may experience movements of Vietnamese and Indonesians to Malaysia Cambodians and Laotians to Thailand Burmese to Thailand and Malaysia and Filipinos throughout the region In addition to creating outright refugees climate change may drive major increases in migrant workers seeking employment in neighboring countries Millions of Filipinos and Indonesians currently work overseas within or outside the region—over two million Indonesians work in Malaysia alone where they make up over 10 percent of the country’s population Overseas migrant labor acts as a safety valve for employment pressures and a source of economically critical remittances Conflicts over migrant workers are already on the rise in the region however and countries under increasing domestic employment and societal pressure are unlikely to welcome a major influx of foreign labor Boat People The maritime geography of Southeast Asia means that many population movements will occur not over land borders but by sea—the phenomenon of migrant “boat people ” During the late 1970s the Communist victory in the Vietnam War generated an exodus of Indochinese boat people Malaysia Thailand and Singapore pushed the refugees back to sea with devastating humanitarian consequences The Southeast Asian states’ willingness to accept the refugees as nations of first asylum was obtained only with the promise of extensive international aid and permanent resettlement 46 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views elsewhere Over a million boat people were resettled in the West alleviating pressure on Southeast Asia Today Southeast Asia faces an influx of boat people from South Asia principally Rohingyas a Burmese minority largely displaced into Bangladesh The flood of Rohingyas into southern Thailand and Malaysia is already a major problem In Thailand the navy has pushed the refugees back out to sea as occurred in the 1970s No country in the region wants them and at a time when the United States and Europe both view immigration as a problem it is difficult to imagine outside actors willing to accept large numbers of immigrants from Southeast Asia Climate change—most likely in the form of sudden more severe storms and flooding—is likely to create a vast new flow of boat people moving between the islands of Indonesia and the Philippines as well as into neighboring countries such as Australia and New Zealand Southern Indochina Some of the most destabilizing cross-border migration over the next two decades probably will occur in Cambodia southern Vietnam and eastern Thailand The two primary components of migration in this region will most likely be Vietnamese moving into sparsely populated areas of northeastern Cambodia or even into the densely populated provinces in southeastern Cambodia and Cambodians into Thailand The driver of this migration pattern will be the disruption of the lower Mekong River whether caused by upstream damming or climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and saline intrusion This migration will bring culturally antagonistic groups into contact with one another and could lead to a regional conflict in Indochina Although many ethnic Vietnamese Kinh displaced from the Mekong Delta would move north within Vietnam others also could move into eastern Cambodia In addition as more lowland Kinh move into the Central Highlands Vietnamese minorities could be driven over the border into Laos and Cambodia Given the intense animosity between Vietnamese and Khmers this movement portends a high probability of bitter ethnic and national conflict Cambodia itself will also be under severe environmental stress if the vital Tonle Sap and lower Mekong are disrupted The combination of water stress and the influx of Vietnamese could force large numbers of Cambodians out of the country’s rural heartland If they move north or west into Thailand serious ethnic and border conflict could occur Burma and Bangladesh Bangladesh is likely to suffer catastrophically due to climate change with the potential for millions of refugees to be displaced from the Ganges Delta particularly in the wake of severe storms and flooding Although most of the resulting cross-border migrants probably will move into India significant numbers of refugees might move into the Arakan region of western Burma as well In addition refugee camps in Bangladesh host large numbers of Rohingya driven from Burma Climatic pressure in Bangladesh will drive them out of the camps Rohingya refugees could try to cross back into Burma where the regime is ill-equipped to handle a large refugee influx and hostile to the Rohingya Many displaced Rohingya would join the flood of boat people seeking entry into other Southeast Asian states Chinese Migration and the Chinese Diaspora The Chinese diaspora is also a source of tension in the region it has led to periodic explosions of anti-Chinese violence 47 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views particularly in Indonesia The tensions surrounding the established diaspora will over the next several decades be supplemented by increased flows of Chinese migrants A major expansion of Chinese emigration into Southeast Asia could intensify economic social and political instability In Thailand hundreds of thousands of illegal Chinese migrants have set up businesses with much of the revenue flowing back to China Meanwhile Thailand’s broader economy has suffered in part due to competition with China helping fuel Thailand’s recent political instability The existing trend of Chinese migration from southern Yunnan province into the northern panhandle of Laos also will intensify A plan to build a city of 50 000 Chinese laborers near the Laotian capital of Vientiane prompted public protests Local concerns about the influx of Chinese may lead to violence in some areas particularly if coupled with environmental stress A similar dynamic may play out in Burma where Chinese migrants from Yunnan make up almost as large a proportion of the population of Mandalay as the dominant Bamar Burmans Some Southeast Asian countries may become suspicious of their Chinese minorities perceiving them as Fifth Columnists or extensions of Chinese imperial domination As China becomes more assertive in the region and its ability to project power increases Beijing may feel obligated to defend the Chinese diaspora from local grievances Prospects for Regional Conflict Climate change to 2030 is likely to exacerbate existing bilateral and multilateral disputes in Southeast Asia and generate new ones Migration Conflicts Cross-border migration represents by far the greatest potential driver of large-scale interstate conflict in Southeast Asia Other points of contention such as maritime disputes carry more risks of provoking military clashes but these are likely to be limited in scope Large-scale cross-border population movements particularly when combined with historic cultural and national antagonisms could potentially escalate into major regional wars involving practices such as ethnic cleansing or genocide The most dangerous climate change-induced migration flashpoints probably will center on the nexus of Cambodia Thailand and Vietnam In addition Thai and Burmese forces have engaged in border clashes in recent years that Thai security officials claim have left hundreds dead Territorial Disputes Conflicting territorial claims both on land and at sea have been a perennial source of conflict in Southeast Asia Major land disputes have either long since been settled or—as with the Philippines’ claims to the Malaysian provinces of Sabah and Sarawak—remain dormant Outstanding border disputes remain between Vietnam and China Laos and Thailand and Cambodia and Thailand Tensions are mainly driven by symbolic nationalist issues The recent Thai-Cambodian dispute for example concerned control of portions of the historic Preah Vihear temple ruins awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962 but still claimed by Thailand Climate change may increase the salience of border disputes as displaced populations encroach on border areas and illegal immigration expands in scope Resource Competition Climate change-induced financial pressures will place a premium on securing access to natural resources rents Zero-sum competition rather than cooperation may become the regional norm Existing conflicts over oil and gas claims 48 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views probably will be joined by more clashes over dwindling timber resources and potentially even production areas for illicit drugs such as opium Continued legal and illegal logging by Thai firms and nationals in Laos Burma and Cambodia could provoke conflict As both China and India become major players in resource extraction in the region their activities will both complicate and exacerbate Southeast Asian resource competition Climatic pressures also will drive competition for less lucrative but far more essential resources such as water arable land and fisheries If scarcity of staple resources remain manageable states probably will compete more for revenue-generating resources Once a tipping point is reached where a state feels it can no longer provide enough food or water for its population however it faces a threat that may well provoke a desperate resource grab For example Singapore has the military capacity to seize control of Malaysian water resources in the unlikely event that future water scarcity seriously reduced the available water resources in the area or prompted Malaysia to withhold water for its own use Trans-border Environmental Spillover Disputes over environmental spillover effects will become increasingly prominent in the region as a result of climate change If climate change worsens the forest fires in Sumatra and Borneo leading to more fire seasons like that of 1997 tensions between Indonesia and its neighbors could reach a breaking point Malaysia Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries have suffered the effects of the haze generated by the fires year after year while Indonesia has not taken serious domestic steps to curb rampant burning Other similar trans-border threats may arise as a result of climate change The most serious conflicts probably will involve upstream water management of trans-border rivers Under conditions of water scarcity or irregular rainfall upstream users might divert water from downstream countries By far the most significant and potentially contentious issue is that of the Mekong Maritime Disputes At various times most Southeast Asian states have had maritime disputes with their neighbors and many unresolved disputes remain Singapore has disputes over maritime boundaries and islands with both Malaysia and Indonesia Cambodia has similar disputes with Thailand and Vietnam and unresolved issues remain between Indonesia and TimorLeste China occupies the Paracel Islands also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan The salience of the remaining maritime disputes in the region has increased with growing competition for seabed hydrocarbon resources and fisheries The increasing tendency of Southeast Asian states to send naval and coast guard forces to protect their claims is in turn increasing the potential for disputes to escalate into open conflict The active dispute between Malaysia and Indonesia over the Ambalat block a fossil fuel-rich area of seabed in the Celebes Sea off eastern Borneo is a case in point In May 2009 tensions over Ambalat led to a confrontation between Malaysian and Indonesian warships Climate change will increase existing competition over dwindling maritime resources For example as fish stocks have declined conflicts have increased among fishermen who regularly enter waters outside of their national boundaries Shifts in fisheries due to climate change will intensify fishing conflicts Based on previous patterns the Vietnamese will likely be the most aggressive in pressing their fisheries claims As states 49 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views in the region compete bitterly for resources and face greater domestic political pressure they may not act with restraint in the face of maritime provocations Coastal changes and loss of islands due to sea-level rise might generate demands for revisions of baselines and jurisdictional boundaries increasing the potential for maritime disputes The loss of strategically located islands could have profound ramifications in terms of the Law of the Sea and seabed fossil fuel rights The South China Sea The multilateral dispute over control of the South China Sea is the most significant maritime dispute in Southeast Asia and the one most likely to spark a major regional naval conflict The South China Sea is the world’s largest sea at over a million square miles and among the world’s most important maritime trade routes The sea hosts major fisheries and seabed hydrocarbon reserves and forms the maritime boundary between China and Southeast Asia China Taiwan Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Brunei and the Philippines have been party to a series of complex and longstanding disputes over various portions of the sea The most contentious concern is the Spratly Islands a series of tiny rocks and coral atolls whose central location make them critical determinants of maritime claims China Taiwan Vietnam the Philippines Malaysia and Brunei claim sovereign control over some or all of the islands Tensions escalated in the mid-1990s contributing to a naval arms race in the region but agreements such as the 2002 “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea” have led to over a decade of relative calm The maritime claims nevertheless have not been definitively resolved and increased competition over fisheries and seabed hydrocarbons appears set to resurrect the South China Sea dispute The key outstanding issue is China’s claim China considers the South China Sea a territorial sea based upon right of first discovery a claim that is in direct conflict with the Law of the Sea and the claims of the other parties China’s claim includes portions of the continental shelves of Vietnam Malaysia and the Philippines It extends as far south as Indonesia’s Anambas Islands including the Natuna Islands—which China claims despite acquiescing to de facto Indonesian control China has sought to control economic activity in the sea even objecting to oil drilling in Vietnamese territorial waters in the Gulf of Tonkin The normal avenue of seeking a ruling from the International Court of Justice is closed because China will not submit to international arbitration of its sovereign claims China adamantly refuses to accept any multilateral initiative that might question the legitimacy of its sovereign rights in the South China Sea and its expansive claims are backed by growing military power If China were to enforce its claims it would end freedom of navigation in the South China Sea a vital artery for trade and oil between Northeast Asia and points west The strategic implications would be profound and such a move could precipitate a major regional naval conflict Southeast Asian countries have tried to engage China on the sovereignty issue for 20 years but to no avail China is unlikely to back down from its claims in the South China Sea but wants to be a responsible stakeholder in managing maritime resources Setting aside sovereignty progress is possible on settling the constituent disputes over fisheries and seabed resources and meeting the common challenges of climate change The predicted new energy demands caused by development urbanization and climate change 50 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views raise the stakes in the territorial and jurisdictional claims to potential oil and gas reserves The littoral states will most likely come to a compromise with China on joint resource exploitation even if China’s sovereignty claim is not directly addressed Climate change will complicate efforts to settle the South China Sea maritime dispute Sea-level rise is likely to permanently submerge some of the disputed Spratly Islands where some maritime claims are based on coral reefs that only emerge from the water at low tide In response China is reinforcing the islands and building up the reefs to be self sustaining Climate change also poses a significant threat to the South China Sea’s maritime ecosystems which are at the point of collapse due to overfishing and pollution The countries of the region have failed to arrive at an international agreement to stave off such an outcome Efforts such as the Indonesian-led South China Sea workshop process to find areas of functional cooperation on environmental management have foundered on conflicting sovereign claims The maritime effects of climate change such as changes in sea temperature salinity and acidity will further deplete and strain the fisheries Confrontations between illegal fishing vessels and national maritime police or navies are becoming routine In addition China’s exploitation of Southeast Asian fisheries is backed by aggressive maritime patrolling deep into the claimed Exclusive Economic Zones of its ASEAN neighbors Fishing confrontations involving China have led to tensions with both Indonesia and Vietnam The Mekong River The challenges associated with the Mekong River represent a regional political and ecological tipping point for Southeast Asia The concurrent effects of manmade development activities and climate change have created the potential for a regional disaster The combination of agricultural disaster on the lower Mekong and resulting mass refugee flows could dominate the course of development stability and foreign relations in mainland Southeast Asia to 2030 and beyond Dam Construction Energy demand and hydropower potential have led to an explosion of dam construction on the Mekong and its tributaries posing a significant threat to the health of the Mekong Basin There are already seven dams on the Mekong River system most of them built on tributaries such as the Mun River in Thailand or the Nam Ngum in Laos With China leading the way and providing investment and construction the states of the Mekong Basin are set to triple or quadruple that figure China’s ambitious program in Yunnan Province projects a cascade of eight large to mega-sized hydropower dams four of which were already under construction as of July 2008 with the possibility of eight more further upstream China’s upstream activities may have a far greater and more rapid effect on downstream volume in the major rivers of mainland Southeast Asia than climate change China’s diversion of Mekong River water may become even more critical if the Mekong’s flow from Tibet is diminished due to climate change Although China receives the lion’s share of the criticism for rampant dam construction Laos Thailand and Cambodia are also planning a further 11 dams on the Mekong— seven in Laos two on the Lao-Thai border and two in Cambodia The upstream reservoirs in China will act as cisterns to ensure adequate downstream river flow to the 51 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views planned downstream Mekong dams during the dry season Chinese companies are involved in more than half of the downstream dam projects Both Thailand and Cambodia are also constructing water management infrastructures on Mekong tributaries The impetus behind the Mekong dam projects is the creation of a regional electrical grid that will facilitate the development of the Mekong Basin By 2030 the Mekong and its tributaries will support an elaborate interlocking electric power generation grid supplying Laos northern Thailand parts of Cambodia and much of Yunnan The economic stakes for dam construction are high and the states of the Mekong Basin are set to compete for whatever developmental benefits they can obtain with little regard to the consequences for others further downstream By adeptly playing off the Chinese against the Vietnamese and the Thais against both poverty-stricken Laos is set to become a leading regional electricity provider The Mekong problem points to the larger issue that governments in Southeast Asia may not alter their policies even when confronted with definitive scientific warnings of the consequences The riparian states continue to pursue infrastructure projects designed to interfere with the natural flow of the Mekong in spite of the potential adverse effects Even Vietnam despite facing disaster as a result of upstream dam construction is building dozens of small and medium-sized dams in its Central Highlands reportedly without adequate impact studies The flow of foreign investment and the allure of establishing a Mekong Basin hydroelectric grid trump the scientific data Dam construction is set to bring major economic and energy benefits to China Laos and Thailand These states will suffer few of the adverse impacts on water availability agriculture and freshwater fisheries that will disrupt Cambodia and Vietnam Paradoxically climate change may have more prospects of bringing a halt to dam construction than concerns over collateral effects The reduction in river flows to the dams due to the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers could limit hydroelectric potential to the point that they are no longer viable projects Multilateral Management of the Mekong The lack of cooperative and sustainable multilateral water management is one of the most serious potential sources of regional instability in mainland Southeast Asia to 2030 The Mekong issue is an example of the failure of inadequately empowered multilateral organizations in the region to provide effective management of high-priority environmental policy issues The two multilateral organizations charged with managing development of the Mekong are the Mekong River Commission MRC and the Greater Mekong Sub-region GMS Cambodia Laos Thailand and Vietnam are members of both organizations while GMS members China and Burma have declined membership in the MRC in part because of the MRC’s criticism of upstream dam-building While the MRC is concerned with riparian issues exclusively the GMS coordinates regional road networks and multilateral trade cooperation as well as hydrologic issues Both organizations are weak ineffectual consultative bodies whose executive authority is limited to managing the initiatives arrived at by consensus of the member states They have no voice in the decision-making of the member states or independent ability to enforce regulation of the Mekong The MRC and GMS nevertheless provide an institutional basis for the development of a 52 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views future more effective multilateral framework to address both developmental and climatic challenges in the Mekong Basin China and the Mekong As in the South China Sea dispute China is the central player whose policies will determine the course of development of the Mekong Basin to 2030 The states of mainland Southeast Asia have little effective leverage over China even when they can agree on a joint position Because of its major strategic stake in pipelines and ports in Burma China has proven responsive to Burma’s concerns about dam construction on the Nu Salween River On the other hand Beijing has less direct stake in Laos Cambodia and Vietnam and may prove much less cooperative regarding its dams on the Mekong Ultimately China does not need the approval of any downstream state to build its dams in Yunnan Nevertheless China faces potential for political blowback if the countries of the lower Mekong Basin reach a consensus that the dams are threats to their security Such a reaction could metastasize into a broader reaction against China’s deep involvement in Southeast Asia The dam construction is already becoming a major bilateral source of tension between China and Vietnam Regional mobilization to restrain China’s dam construction and other high-impact activities in Southeast Asia may have a limited window of opportunity Once the dams are in place China will exercise decisive control over the river and by extension over the states dependent on it Broader Regional Implications Northeast Asia Japan South Korea and Taiwan—like China—have major interests at stake in Southeast Asia in terms of investments and resource access The Northeast Asian countries have a strong incentive to provide assistance to Southeast Asian states in meeting the climatic challenge Moreover the states of Northeast Asia are critically dependent on both the free flow of maritime trade and oil through Southeast Asia and the South China Sea Disruption of the sea lines of communication whether caused by climate change or the activities of China would be extremely destabilizing and could lead to regional conflict South Asia India like China is a rising power with deepening involvement in Southeast Asia Like the Northeast Asian states India has a strategic maritime interest in maintaining open sea lanes through the chokepoints of Southeast Asia India is opposed to the establishment of unchecked Chinese hegemony in Southeast Asia which may give it common cause with states like Vietnam and Indonesia not to mention the United States India shares Southeast Asian concerns over water management and upstream dam construction by China environmental refugee flows food security and the threat from climate change and overfishing to the fisheries of the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea The gravest climate change-induced challenge shared between South and Southeast Asia however is the potential for a humanitarian emergencies and mass refugee flows from Bangladesh Such a catastrophe could have major collateral effects on Burma and prompt mass migration into other Southeast Asian states as well Australasia and the Pacific Climate change-induced instability in Southeast Asia would pose a major security challenge for neighboring Australia In particular deteriorating conditions in Indonesia could absorb most of Australia’s attention and military resources A worst-case scenario would be a massive flow of Indonesian refugees into Australia A 53 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views proximate threat to Australia’s security would draw in the United States in support of its close ally Papua New Guinea will likely face major climate change-induced challenges of its own including an acute vulnerability to sea-level rise and island loss The country’s poverty and underdevelopment provide little capacity to deal with such challenges Moreover Papua New Guinea’s climate change-induced troubles could spill over into Indonesia’s Papua province or vice versa Illegal migration across the border between the two halves of New Guinea is already a problem and climate change could create much larger refugee flows in either direction Overall Foreign Policy Implications Most of the countries in Southeast Asia are Western-oriented and integrated into the global economy with strong economic and political ties to the United States and the developed countries of Northeast Asia and the West Even the formerly Communist states of the Southeast Asian mainland are becoming more outward-looking and integrated into Western economic and trade structures The major exception is Burma which remains the most disconnected and xenophobic state in the region Climate change may affect foreign policies in different ways across the region but the overall need for external assistance to meet humanitarian and climatic crises should encourage greater openness For example Cyclone Nargis has made Burma slightly more open to engaging with foreign aid organizations and states Even where climate-induced crises force states to concentrate on internal challenges limited state capacities will necessitate continued engagement with outside sources of aid The rise of China and its foreign policy toward Southeast Asia is likely to remain the central driver of the foreign policies of states in the region to 2030 The effects of climate change on China itself will in part drive China’s domestic and foreign policies in ways that impact Southeast Asia Moreover each country in the region must strike a balance in its relations with China on the one hand and with the United States and its regional allies on the other Climate change will factor into this balancing of foreign policy orientation especially the degree to which states in the region decide or are compelled to rely on China rather than the West for assistance in combating climate change States such as Burma Laos and Cambodia probably will increase their already heavy dependence on China Malaysia the Philippines Singapore and Thailand with much stronger pre-existing ties to the West will have more leverage to avoid becoming critically dependent on China Vietnam and to a lesser extent Indonesia are likely to strongly resist dependence on China and could become more pro-Western in their orientations Whether this likely split in orientation within the region becomes a source of major tension will depend to a large degree on how aggressively China decides to pursue regional hegemony over the next 20 years In addition to the China and foreign aid factors the effect of climate change on Southeast Asia’s relations with the West will depend on how the issue is framed within the region To date much of the global debate on climate change has been framed in terms of the West versus the developing world The states of Southeast Asia share the concerns of other developing countries over the perceived inequity of having to accept limitations on 54 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views their development to address problems caused by the already developed states The United States and other Western states are seen as hypocritical on environmental concerns due to their own misuse of resources and environmental damage If the states of Southeast Asia are asked to make major sacrifices or perceive their economic development options being limited tensions will occur with the West The West is currently seen as the primary culprit and as climate change-induced challenges become more severe and apparent this could bolster anti-Western sentiment in the region In many cases Southeast Asian leaders unable to effectively address climate change-related issues will try to blame external actors as they have done over regional public health issues The framing of climate change as a Western-generated phenomenon creates the potential for major anti-Western backlashes over virtually any climate change-induced crisis that arises in the region These nationalistic reactions may hamper cooperation on international mitigation efforts and strain broader relations between Southeast Asian states and the West particularly the United States The West however may increasingly share the blame for climate change with China and other global actors One emerging factor is the move by wealthy countries such as the Republic of Korea or Saudi Arabia to secure control over Southeast Asian commercial agriculture to grow crops to meet their own domestic food security needs By doing so they are using Southeast Asia’s land and water to produce non-Southeast Asian food in effect redistributing resources out of the region As regional resources are strained by climate change this may become a major point of contention China’s growing involvement in the region particularly in exploitation of natural resources that may exacerbate climatic effects is generating an increasing tendency to blame China rather than Western actors Deft Chinese investment in green technologies in Southeast Asia might deflect some negative perceptions of China’s role as a contributor to climate change and threat to the region’s environment Nonetheless the negative effects that are likely to be blamed on China—such as a crisis on the Mekong River—are of such a scale that China probably will not be able to counteract the damage to its image The Mekong River issue is the most salient area where China risks a major regional backlash and China’s approach on the Mekong may be the most important determinant of what direction its relations with mainland Southeast Asia take to 2030 Over the next 20 years countries in the region may come to regard China as a far greater climatic and environmental threat than the West and political mobilization may shift to an anti-Chinese focus Southeast Asia and Global Climate Change Policy To date Southeast Asia has played a relatively larger role in the debate over global climate change policy than the widespread dismissal of the issue within the region would indicate For example the ASEAN countries were early signers to the Kyoto Protocol and have participated constructively in subsequent climate change policy forums Indonesia has been particularly engaged hosting the December 2007 Bali Conference on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC as well as arranging a September 2007 climate change summit involving the eight leading tropical rainforest countries Apparent commitment to the global debate notwithstanding at the 55 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views regional and individual state level climate change policy remains hollow and rhetorical with little sense of urgency or common purpose In a few cases the surprising global engagement on the issue may be driven by pressure from civil society Thailand and the Philippines have lively nongovernmental and “cause-oriented” sectors and such voices are growing in Indonesia as well For the most part however the engaged rhetoric and diplomacy on global climate change may represent the sort of superficial multilateral engagement characteristic of regional-level engagement in ASEAN If so the political will and capability of the Southeast Asian states to follow through effectively on international commitments is questionable Even if professed concerns over climate change are superficial a number of different factors may explain the region’s level of involvement Southeast Asian states may be motivated by unwillingness to allow the major powers to dictate climate change policies that might adversely affect Southeast Asia’s economic interests Indonesia for example has a major interest in keeping the emissions debate focused on regulating industrial and transportation contributions to greenhouse gases rather than causes such as manmade forest fires Countries in the region also do not want to end up having their future industrial development constrained Conversely global climate change mitigation policies have the potential to play out to the economic advantage of many states in Southeast Asia Apart from Indonesia most countries of the region still have a comparatively small carbon footprint Tighter global emissions controls and carbon credit schemes are therefore comparatively advantageous to Southeast Asia The light manufacturing capabilities and cheap labor in Southeast Asia may also be highly suitable for certain kinds of green technology production In addition engagement with the international climate change debate and apparent willingness to promote mitigation policies provide good public relations with Southeast Asia’s important trading partners in the developed world Singapore’s 2006 decision to sign the Kyoto Protocol exemplifies these dynamics The decision was primarily made to protect the country’s international image and to benefit from economic opportunities under the “Clean Development Mechanism” rather than from a desire to grapple with climate change Southeast Asia’s involvement in global climate change mitigation has so far been largely constructive and could become more important over the next 20 years The continued growth of concern and mobilization on climate change within civil society may push governments in the region to take a more activist position In particular Thailand and conceivably the Philippines might become more vocal regionally and internationally due to civil activism It is unlikely that ASEAN or any of its members will take the lead in championing fresh international norms to slow global climate change Southeast Asia might nevertheless be among the first regions to support a positive approach if the developed world India and China establish an effective approach to global climate change The Role of the United States in Southeast Asia Since the end of the war in Indochina Southeast Asia has been a region of secondary importance to the United States Although the United States has a number of critical economic and strategic interests in Southeast Asia US policy in Southeast Asia since the late 1970s has largely been determined by US interests in neighboring Northeast Asia 56 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views The states in the region have been mainly pro-Western and those that are not have been closed and inward-looking Security problems in the region while serious generally have remained manageable and have not had major spillover Following the withdrawal of the United States from its bases in the Philippines the primary US military presence in Southeast Asia has been naval deployments to protect the region’s sea lines of communications SLOCs and more recently anti-terrorism support to local governments Trade and economics continue to dominate the US agenda in the region Policy attention has not kept pace with the region’s growing global importance and the growing US equities at stake there The combination of climate change and China’s growing regional dominance may put substantial US interests in the region in jeopardy over the next two decades The negative interaction of climate change and unsustainable development policies raises the prospect of severe regional instability while China’s increasing regional dominance threatens to exclude the United States from Southeast Asia and provoke regional conflicts US Interests in Southeast Asia Southeast Asia is of critical economic importance to the United States in a number of respects Most directly the trade and investment links between Southeast Asia and the United States are very strong Taken as a whole ASEAN is a larger US trading partner than China Serious climate change-induced economic destabilization in the region or economic exclusion by China would be very costly to the United States and US companies Due to the important role the countries of Southeast Asia play in the global economy instability in the region could also have serious indirect repercussions for the economic interests of the United States It is in the interests of the United States to help maintain economic stability free trade and open markets in the region The maintenance of a free flow of maritime trade and military assets through Southeast Asia’s vital SLOCs is of both critical economic and strategic interest to the United States Half of the world’s maritime trade passes through the region A third of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Malacca including nearly all the oil imported by China the Republic of Korea Japan and Australia Climate change threatens to increase piracy already a major threat in the region particularly in the Strait of Malacca Piracy has declined significantly in recent years due to the establishment of joint maritime patrols by the littoral states combined with strong police work on land particularly in Indonesia Since most piracy in the region involves impoverished fishermen seeking an alternative livelihood however climatic stress on coastal communities and fisheries could drive a major uptick in piracy China’s assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea spurred in part by climate change-induced resource scarcity and fisheries impacts would jeopardize freedom of the seas and could spark a broader regional conflict The United States has a strong interest in promoting regional maritime security and heading off a regional conflict with China The United States has a strategic interest in promoting a Southeast Asia that is regionally integrated at peace and resists the hegemony of any power—particularly China If China’s regional dominance assumes an exclusionary character it will threaten the interests of not only the United States but also key allies in the Asia-Pacific including Japan and Australia By 2030 Southeast Asia is likely to become the primary zone of 57 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views contention between Asia’s two rising giants China and India A relatively robust integrated Southeast Asia supported by a US naval presence would act as a buffer between the two powers In contrast a weak unstable Southeast Asia without a US presence could draw them into direct strategic conflict over the region A weakened and unstable Southeast Asia will also provide greater functional space for international terrorist groups while climate change-induced grievances may push more disaffected recruits into such groups Terrorists may flourish in peripheral areas expected to suffer severe climate change-induced stress particularly the potential “arc of anarchy” in the islands from Sulawesi to Mindanao Social disruptions and migration will provide more opportunities for terrorists to blend into local communities and move freely State resources will be diverted to managing the effects of climate change not only weakening the state’s ability to combat terrorism but providing the terrorists with an opportunity to win hearts and minds by stepping in to fill shortfalls in social services In addition Southeast Asia will be subject to humanitarian crises of increasing frequency and scale The United States is likely to be one of the primary international responders to such crises as it was during the 2004 tsunami or Cyclone Nargis The less the states in the region can do for themselves the more the United States has to expend to help them The United States has an overall interest in preventing sustained economic or political weakness and instability in Southeast Asia Developments in the region could not only have major direct adverse consequences for US interests but could affect the overall foreign policy of the United States in Asia and elsewhere The effectiveness of Southeast Asian governments’ responses to the climate change-induced challenges that face their societies is an important concern for the United States Sino-US Relations and Southeast Asia Any realistic US policy options in Southeast Asia must take China’s role into consideration China factors into every US bilateral relationship in the region The United States will be challenged to balance regional interests with the broad array of complex bilateral issues involved in the Sino-American relationship Both the United States and China tend to be reflexively antagonistic when their geopolitical interests overlap but climate change mitigation is a potential area for cooperation The United States should carefully consider how China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia will affect key US interests in the region Over the next two decades the United States will face critical foreign policy decisions regarding its posture toward China’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia On the one hand the United States could acquiesce to inevitable Chinese hegemony and focus on cooperation with China on climate change and other issues in the region On the other hand the United States could support those states in the region hostile to Chinese domination building strong relationships with them as a counter to China A middle ground might be to attempt to engage China in a multilateral regional structure that would introduce some institutional constraints on China’s influence Such an approach would have to be adroitly managed in order to assuage China’s suspicions and aversion to joining what it perceives as US-dominated institutions The course the United States chooses regarding China has major implications for US climate change policy in Southeast Asia If China’s hegemony is considered a fait 58 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views accompli the important negotiations and agreements on climate change in the region will be between Washington and Beijing The need to cater to the states in Southeast Asia proper would be secondary This might result in more efficient mitigation policies in areas where the United States and China agree but deadlock where they disagree The viability of a multilateral course would similarly depend heavily on areas of Sino-US agreement and disagreement Even if a multilateral approach is effective in moderating China’s position in Southeast Asia it might result in lowest common denominator climate change mitigation policies Conversely if the United States sides with regional powers the focus of climate change policy would be on building state capacity in the region This might be effective in improving regional resilience but China would not share in the costs and would probably seek to undermine mitigation policies Climate change-driven regional dynamics such as antagonism toward China’s exploitative role in the region or dependence on Chinese aid will play a significant role in the China-US-Southeast Asia interaction If contentious issues such as the Mekong or the South China Sea are allowed to develop into full-fledged regional conflicts it could have a decisive effect on the course of Sino-US relations to 2030 and beyond The United States could play a useful role as a facilitator for negotiations toward an agreement on these potential inflammatory issues US efforts to manage these disputes should take into account China’s nationalism-driven refusal to compromise its sovereignty The sovereignty issue is non-negotiable and should be avoided rather than confronted China might be open to compromise solutions on allocation or joint development of resources and shared maritime access if they derive from an environmental and resource management perspective The introduction of sovereignty into the debate would scuttle any prospect for agreement US-Southeast Asian Relations Despite China’s inroads in Southeast Asia the United States remains in a strong diplomatic position in the region Singapore Thailand and the Philippines have longstanding close relations with the United States Despite periodic strains the United States has also maintained constructive relationships with Malaysia and Indonesia and has made substantial progress in improving relations with Indochina Only Burma and to a lesser extent Laos remain diplomatically isolated from the United States Even those diplomatic obstacles are mitigated by the strong cooperative relationship the United States has built with ASEAN The overall context for the United States to mobilize support for climate change mitigation in Southeast Asia is therefore robust relative to many other regions Southeast Asian states tend to be wary of becoming too closely tied to the United States particularly as China becomes more assertive in the region The China factor will determine what kinds of climate change-driven cooperative relationships states in the region are willing to accept To date Southeast Asian states have been unimpressed by Washington’s disinclination to muster an effective counter to China’s expanding influence Their lack of confidence in the level of US commitment will affect their willingness to sign on to US-led climate change initiatives The United States will need to demonstrate its bona fides in the region 59 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Aside from the crucial relationship with China the two most important US relationships in the region to 2030 may be with Vietnam and Indonesia The United States needs to carefully consider these relationships in light of their potential impact on US-China relations The relationship between the United States and Vietnam is becoming closer because of shared concerns regarding China Vietnam is eager to continue building the relationship and for US development assistance and investment Vietnam is also more concerned about adapting to environmental and climatic challenges than other states in the region Creating a partnership to tackle climate change adaptation in the region could be an easy sell as part of an expanding US-Vietnam relationship On the other hand a partnership with Vietnam carries significant risks of drawing the United States into a showdown between China and Vietnam over the Mekong or the South China Sea Indonesia is by far the most important state in the region from a climate change perspective The United States currently has an opportunity to assist Indonesia in developing its capacity to act in a leadership role in meeting the challenges of climate change in Southeast Asia The new comprehensive partnership between the United States and Indonesia provides an avenue for the United States to engage across the board A combination of US support international pressure and incentives such as debt alleviation could encourage Indonesia toward greater attention and commitment to proactive climate change mitigation US Engagement on Climate Change in Southeast Asia US engagement with the Southeast Asian states on the climate change issue is likely to be a protracted and difficult process due to the lack of commitment to substantive action on the issue within the region Different countries in the region will respond to different types of US diplomatic approaches on climate change and related issues Some prefer multilateral approaches others prefer to be consulted on a bilateral basis and included in the policy formulation process Enthusiasm for greater US engagement in the region also varies widely US efforts will be more effective when tailored to the circumstances and interests of each individual country in the region Highlighting the economic costs associated with climate change will be very important to achieving US policy objectives In addition states and leaders in the region are accustomed to dealing with problems such as food security water supply or public health as discrete issues An approach that starts by addressing discrete aspects of the environmental and climatic issue that resonate in the region will be better received than a comprehensive climate change initiative The latter will encourage rhetorical rather than substantive responses while the former are manageable enough in scope so that states in the regions can engage effectively Forstates in the region to buy into US initiatives they will need evidence of a sustained US commitment backed up by considerable resources and policy attention While wary of involvement with the United States most states in the region would welcome a quiet leadership role by the United States in addressing climate change-related challenges and in offering concrete program assistance More so than China the United States can act as a comparatively honest broker able to keep needed regional programs on track despite internecine rivalries and maneuvering The United States should also be prepared to bring diplomatic and economic pressure to bear in order to encourage climate 60 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views change mitigation measures Many leaders in the region may not be convinced of the need to start mitigation programs within the limited timeframe available Ultimately climate change mitigation measures implemented at the behest of the United States rather than because leaders are fully convinced of their necessity still represent progress Raising Awareness and Education Awareness and acceptance of climate change issues remains superficial in Southeast Asia posing a major obstacle to the adoption of effective mitigation policies What is needed in Southeast Asia is not just wider knowledge about climatic issues but wider acceptance of the validity of the problem and the proposed solutions The United States has a comparative advantage in terms of knowledge on climate environment and health issues It can exploit this to provide education and outreach to Southeast Asian states simultaneously promoting awareness of climate change The region needs centers of excellence on climate and environment issues and the United States could help establish them It will be a challenge however to overcome the inclination of decision-makers in the region to ignore scientific reporting Increased use of video computer animation and geographic information systems to visually convey climate data in a more striking and readily digestible format could help communicate the science of climate change more effectively In addition decisionmakers as well as the public can be influenced indirectly by promoting climate change awareness among regional opinion leaders The United States could hold workshops for Southeast Asian officials parliamentarians and members of the regional media to present the case for climate change mitigation in an accessible way Such an education initiative would create regional stakeholders in the climate change discussion who can help reframe the climate change debate and increase the priority of climate change on the regional agenda Boosting Local Capacity The United States could both improve its image and standing in Southeast Asia and ameliorate climate change-induced impacts by building up state capacities in the region Most states in the region have broad deficiencies in multiple areas of state capacity and could significantly benefit from US assistance in areas such as urban planning and infrastructure water resource management civil engineering agricultural policy conservation public health and disaster response The United States should continue to build on initiatives such as the July 2009 agreement to increase cooperation on education public health the environment and water management between the United States and the states of the Lower Mekong Basin The new Comprehensive Partnership with Indonesia is focused on education but could just as easily be focused on building capacity to address climate change Besides financial assistance technical expertise and humanitarian aid another important element of capacity-building is to encourage the development of green technology and clean energy in the region The United States could incentivize green investment by setting it as a precondition for closer economic relations Green technology is an area of convergence between the United States and China which is investing heavily to become a leader in renewable energy technology Although China may undercut Western firms and offer competing investment and aid packages in Southeast Asia the net result could still be beneficial from a climate change mitigation perspective 61 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Poor governance lack of transparency and corruption in the region will undercut efforts to increase the capacity of regional states to mitigate climate change effects Resources directed to central governments may often not find their way down to the local governments which will be the primary responders to climatic challenges Without robust US oversight of how assistance is used much of it may prove ineffective Encouraging governance reform increased transparency and state accountability will be an important aspect of capacity-building The United States could enhance accountability and ensure resources are directed to relevant applications by emphasizing technology transfers and expertise and directing funding and investment to specific programs rather than providing general aid packages Given the lack of state capacity the development of more effective environmental groups in civil society presents a possible alternative avenue for the United States to exert influence in the region Outreach to civil society would have to be subtle and take the sensitivities of local governments and public sentiment into account or risk eroding the credibility of civil actors and subjecting them to state repression Military-to-military contacts and training could provide a vehicle to encourage the aspirations of the new generation of military leaders in the region toward greater professionalism de-politicization and rooting out corruption More professional reliable armed forces will increase state capacity The US military could facilitate the growth of regional military capabilities for infrastructure-building and disaster response Creating units equivalent to the US Army Corps of Engineers could play a major role in climate change mitigation Strengthening Multilateral Institutions In addition to boosting the capacity of individual states the strengthening of multilateral institutions in the region would create an effective joint framework to address climate change-related challenges The United States can leverage its greater institutional experience expertise and capabilities in managing environmental issues to support Southeast Asian institutions such as the Greater Mekong Sub-region or Mekong River Commission The newly-announced partnership between the Mekong and Mississippi River Commissions for example could pave the way for the development of broader-ranging regional environmental management organizations United States engagement with multilateral institutions in the region needs to take place in a context that does not threaten either China or the Southeast Asian countries One possible approach would be to use the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia as the normative basis for a new multilateral consultative framework since both the United States and China are signatories The Copenhagen Negotiations In approaching climate change negotiations with Southeast Asian states the United States needs to bear in mind that in many cases governments in the region lack the capacity or will to deliver on their policy promises Both ASEAN and individual states in the region have a long history of failing to act on their rhetoric and policy initiatives Although Southeast Asian states may readily sign on to an agreement at Copenhagen robust accountability will be necessary to insure that they follow through To that end the 62 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views United States needs to consider making aid to countries in the region conditional on performance and assured allocation to climate change-related applications Because of its size and status as a major emitter of greenhouse gases Indonesia is the Southeast Asian state most critical to the climate change negotiations The international community needs to make a major effort to motivate Indonesia to engage on the climate issue Indonesia desires to play a constructive international role on the environmental issue commensurate with its importance as a source of greenhouse gas emissions Indonesian leaders would rather have the country seen as a good international citizen than an obstructive polluter As a largely agricultural developing country that is also a major emitter Indonesia could act as an intermediary in negotiations between the developed and developing worlds 63 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views ________________________ i Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm ii R Boer and A Faqih Current and Future Rainfall Variability in Indonesia AIACC Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors Semi-Annual Report July to December 2003 http sedac ciesin columbia edu aiacc accessed April 8 2009 iii J A Church N J White R Coleman K Lambeck and J X Mitrovica Estimates of regional distribution of Sea-level risesea-level rise over the 1950-2000 period J Clim 17 2004 2609–2625 J A Church N J White and J R Hunter Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands Global Planet Change 53 no 3 2006 155–168 iv B Bhaskaran and J F B Mitchell Simulated changes in Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation resulting from anthropogenic emissions Int J Climatol 18 1998 1455-1462 v Heiko Paeth Anja Scholten Petra Friederichs and Andreas Hense Uncertainties in climate change prediction El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons Global and Planetary Change 60 2008 265288 vi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis eds S Solomon D Qin M Manning M Marquis K Averyt M M B Tignor H L Jr Miller and Z Chen Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2007 http www ipcc ch ipccreports ar4-wg1 htm 64 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 65 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views 66 This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views Mexico The Caribbean and Central America The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications Prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc and Scitor Corporation The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues The views expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government positions CR 2010-03 January 2010 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Scope Note Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries regions of the world India China Russia North Africa Mexico and the Caribbean and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States For each country region we are adopting a three-phase approach • In the first phase contracted research explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region country For Mexico Central America and the Caribbean the Phase I effort was published as a NIC Special Report Mexico Central America and the Caribbean Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 2009-11 of November 2009 • In the second phase a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community IC determines if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations cause economic hardship or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country region This report is the result of the Phase II effort for Mexico Central America and the Caribbean States • In the final phase the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit LRAU will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security In August of 2009 a group of regional experts convened to explore the socio-political challenges civil and key interest group responses government responses and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Mexico Central America and the Caribbean through 2030 The group of outside experts consisted of economists political scientists and other social scientists While the targeted time frame of the analysis was out to 2030 the perceptions of decision makers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate This work is being delivered under the Global Climate Change Research Program contract with the CIA’s Office of the Chief Scientist 1 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 2 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Executive Summary The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Mexico the Caribbean and Central America held on 31 August 2009 brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Mexico the Caribbean and Central America from a social political and economic perspective The panelists concluded that through 2030 climatic changes in the region may aggravate civil unrest and internal conflicts leading to increased migration and that strong centralized states and states with robust civil societies will likely fare better than others Although the region does not contribute to significant global greenhouse gases it is highly vulnerable to the effects generated by increasing climate variability Rising temperatures rising sea levels increased rainfall in some places drought in others and a greater frequency of extreme weather events such as hurricanes floods and heat waves are expected from climate change • Temperature rise both on land and at sea could affect crop growing patterns as well as the viability of fisheries on which some coastal populations depend • Sea level rise has the potential to create economic losses for coastal populations particularly around ports • Rising temperatures increased rainfall and population displacement may exacerbate or contribute to the emergence of infectious diseases Climate change may increase prospects for conflict in the region Increased resource scarcity may combine synergistically with weak states and economic inequalities to promote organized insurrection Civil conflicts are more likely than state-on-state violence though some internal conflicts may spill across borders • Potential inter-state flashpoints include the Dominican Republic and Haiti the GuatemalaHonduras-Nicaragua zone of instability and the US-Mexican border • In Mexico water scarcity may intensify community vulnerabilities to water-related diseases and exacerbate social tensions over access to water for agriculture and domestic uses Large internal conflicts or large population migrations are unlikely for most states in the region with the exception of Haiti While increased migration is likely it is only part of a range of potential responses including adaptation sub-state conflict and interstate conflict • Migratory trends to Mexico and to the United States are likely to continue and may accelerate A concomitant rise in migrant-related criminality is also likely • The adaptive capacities of states and populations within the region vary but the region has historically dealt well with slow-acting climatic changes Strong civil society organizations play an important role in moderating the effects of climate change as they provide a means of communication between local people and state actors The strength of civil society varies among states in the region • Mexico and Panama possess robust civil society organizations environmental and social NGOs and ethnic organizations 3 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • Guatemala Nicaragua and El Salvador are in the process of rebuilding civil society destroyed by conflict • In the case of Haiti civil society is more present in Diaspora—primarily in the United States and France State centralization and control correlate well with emergency preparedness All states in the region show some capacity to recover from damage caused by extreme weather events • Mexico and Cuba appear to have the greatest state-level capacity when it comes to emergency preparedness In both settings the armed forces play a role in managing emergency response • The smaller Caribbean and Central American states are less prepared to respond to climatic emergencies domestically and Haiti is the least prepared Most states in the region lack the institutional mechanisms to effectively address the long-term threats posed by climate change • Development agencies including USAID and the Inter-American Development Bank are working with states in the region to gather information and develop tool kits to help governments assess their vulnerabilities and better prepare for the physical economic and human toll of extreme weather events • The Caribbean Community CARICOM has instituted several initiatives to bring governments and NGOs together in productive cooperation The United States will probably face ever-increasing pressure to provide humanitarian assistance to neighbors to avoid large numbers of refugees and to reduce the risk of local conflicts that could require US military intervention • States in the region may become increasingly inward looking and politically populist in reaction to economic disparity resource scarcity or civil conflicts exacerbated by climate change • Seeking collaborative and effective regional mechanisms to jointly manage climate change challenges may provide the United States new opportunities for strengthening relations with countries in the region 4 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Contents Page Scope Note 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Background 7 Social Political and Economic Challenges 10 Meteorological Challenges Agricultural Challenges Coastal and Maritime Challenges Hydrologic Challenges Demographic and Public Health Challenges Economic and Energy Challenges Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Potential Responses Adaptive Capacity 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 17 State Responses International Efforts Cuba and Haiti 18 18 Regional Implications 20 Overall Foreign Policy Implications 20 Climate Change Negotiations 21 5 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views This page is intentionally kept blank 6 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Introduction and Background1 Mexico the countries of the Caribbean and Central America examined in the Phase I report are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years because they will be exposed to a greater range of climate changes and have a relatively weak adaptive capacity when compared to the world at large Within the region climate change is evident in increased temperatures changes in precipitation and sea level rise—and perhaps in weather variability and natural disaster events Countries considered for the Phase I effort included Belize Cuba the Dominican Republic Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua and Panama Puerto Rico was also discussed Steady increases within the region in the number of extreme weather events—hurricanes storms and droughts—and their effect on infrastructure public health loss of human life and agriculture may be attributable to climate change The countries reviewed do not yet have a full understanding of the potential impacts of future climatic changes and are not prepared to prevent or reduce those impacts Regional leaders are aware of these challenges and have begun to make commitments and agreements that will enhance their understanding of future climate change their own adaptive capacity and where critical changes and investments need to be made Leaders have not addressed the problem from a preventive perspective through policy changes or infrastructure investments because of a lack of systematic analysis that quantifies and qualifies the potential impact to the region allowing the development of relevant and economically viable options At present the region is still responding to climate change in a reactive manner • Regional leaders realize that leaving the situation “as is” will exacerbate their fragile economies resources and adaptive capacity but lack strategic plans to address the issue • Most countries in the region are signatories to many multilateral environmental agreements but are only now beginning to implement such agreements • There are significant gaps in the ability to fully understand in a systemic way all the dimensions of climate change impacts at the economic social and or environmental level in the region There are gaps and deficiencies in data systematic methodologies analysis and tools to monitor share and track information and events at the local national and regional levels Efforts are starting to reduce systemic knowledge gaps There is insufficient funding by regional governments to undertake detailed modeling that would result in information to rank and evaluate the financial viability of potential climate change adaptation projects Several entities at the national and regional levels are working to develop improved analytical methods and information sharing as well as better data and data availability 1 This section is extracted from the Executive Summary of the Phase I report see Scope Note Mexico Central America and the Caribbean Impact of Climate Change to 2030 A Commissioned Research Report NIC 200911 of November 2009 Some of the judgments in this report Phase II may differ from the Phase I report 7 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views • In September 2008 the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECLAC announced that it would undertake multiple studies to review how climate change is affecting regional economies Currently the ECLAC consensus is that climate change is likely to impose serious economic consequences for the Central American and Caribbean regions making it increasingly difficult to respond to the challenges of poverty reduction higher human development and environmental sustainability linked to the attainment of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals • Upcoming studies by the ECLAC are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the economic impact of climate change in the region and will outline the costs and benefits of needed related policy responses both in terms of mitigation and adaptation In the Phase I report information available for a selected set of Mexico Caribbean and Central American countries was reviewed to start understanding the projected climate change variability given certain scenarios to 2030 as well as to start an initial assessment of these countries’ current adaptive capacity to reduce such effects Very limited modeling and analysis are available for the countries of interest Because of that this initial analysis draws heavily on the respective governments’ First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC These reports to the UNFCCC offer the most comprehensive and comparable information available today In the case of Mexico the third communication to the UNFCCC was used to review summary impacts This report however was primarily focused on improving inventories of greenhouse gases across all types and production of energy as well as the greenhouse gases generated by major economic activity This review identifies the following high-priority risks • Energy Energy resources production and use vary widely across the countries under review As all the countries experience population growth economic growth and industrialization they will increase their need and demand for energy All the countries under review rely on imported fossil fuels with the exception of Mexico which is a net exporter of energy resources In most of the countries the largest generator of greenhouse gases is the energy sector Although they are very small contributors to global emissions most of the countries will receive economic benefits from increasing use of renewable energy Most have begun efforts to evaluate and implement small renewable energy projects such as solar energy in rural areas of El Salvador wind energy in Nicaragua and Costa Rica and an intensive effort in the Dominican Republic to evaluate hydro-generated electricity • A griculture The agricultural sector climate-related research for most of the countries in this review is limited Where research is available productivity losses are projected for optimistic moderate and pessimistic scenarios for some key food crops with estimates that vary from 10 percent to more than 50 percent degradation by the year 2030 • W ater R esources The majority of the population in most of the countries in the review lives in coastal areas which are highly vulnerable to severe climate changes As populations 8 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views continue to grow in the same areas increasing water extraction and rising sea levels are expected to have severe impacts on the quantity and quality of water available Many of these countries’ aquifers are open to ocean waters and are already experiencing increased salinity Rising sea levels will accelerate the deterioration of aquifers and available water resources • M igration In Central America an increase in intra-regional migration during the 1980s and 1990s as well as extra-regional migration was the result of social unrest and economic contraction Future patterns of migration are not expected to change significantly Moreover the inability of countries in the region to adapt and recover from severe climate events with major impacts on their economies will continue to promote migration outside the region in particular to the United States and Canada The large number of immigrants coming to the United States in the past 20-25 years will facilitate this movement Most of the countries under review have submitted their First Communication to the UNFCCC Mexico has submitted its third Significant work and analysis needs to be done to fully capture the impact on socio-economic systems and their current ability to recover adapt and reduce the effects of climate change The great variation of information available for each country reduces the ability to compare the full set of key indicators across all countries in a consistent manner 9 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Social Political and Economic Challenges The projected primary effects of climate change in Mexico Central America and the Caribbean include rising temperatures rising sea levels increased rainfall in some places drought in others and a greater frequency of extreme weather events such as hurricanes floods and heat waves Projected secondary effects include the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases shifting geographic ranges of crops for consumption and export saltwater contamination of aquifers and changes to animal habitats and biodiversity among others In the short term the extent to which these factors may exacerbate social tensions regarding control over and use of natural resources provoke population movement within and from states contribute to food scarcity or lead to pandemic outbreaks will depend on the ability of governments and civil society groups in the affected states to prepare for and respond to emergencies adapt to geographic and social changes and develop ways to cooperate and communicate with international partners in emergency situations In the long term strengthening policies to contain states’ contributions to further global warming through the emission of green house gases and deforestation will be essential Meteorological Challenges Climate experts project that extreme weather events due to higher ocean water and air temperatures including more frequent hurricanes increased rainfall droughts and heat waves will characterize the effects of climate change in Mexico Central America and the Caribbean Beyond loss of life and economic impacts extreme weather events can displace people and create the conditions for disease outbreaks In the Americas the states that border the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico bear the brunt of hurricane action • In 2008 Hurricane Ike devastated parts of Cuba Haiti and Jamaica Heavy rains in the eastern Mexican state of Tabasco in 2007 covered at least 80 percent of the state with water provoked a national emergency declaration and dislocated at least 20 000 people • In 2007 Hurricane Felix a category 5 storm made landfall on the Nicaraguan Coast Storms of this intensity could be the norm for future storms • In 1998 Hurricane Mitch the second worst Atlantic hurricane on record not only destroyed roads and bridges in Honduras Nicaragua and Costa Rica but also wreaked havoc in the Caribbean and Mexico At least 11 000 people are believed to have died and Mitch is estimated to have caused six billion dollars in damage Outbreaks of cholera acute respiratory infections and dengue fever were also reported Mexico and Cuba appear to have the greatest state-level capacity when it comes to emergency preparedness When Hurricane Mitch hit Central America in 1998 both states responded by sending personnel to help with rescue and reconstruction efforts In both settings the armed forces played a role in managing emergency response Mexico has also engaged in emergency preparedness exercises with the United States and Canada through the former Security and Prosperity Partnership and in the context of the Global Health Security Action Group However the smaller Caribbean and Central American states seem to be less prepared to respond to emergencies and extreme weather events domestically for example Haiti is heavily reliant on external support for hurricane and flood recovery 10 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Agricultural Challenges Mexico Central American and Caribbean states have economies with significant agricultural sectors In many of the states selected for this review the agricultural land use vis-à-vis total land area varies widely In 2005 Belize agricultural land was 6 percent of the total land area reflecting the fact that over 50 percent of GDP comes from the services industry particularly tourism compared to Dominican Republic where agricultural land was 70 percent Costa Rica and Haiti 57 percent Cuba 60 percent and Mexico 55 percent of total land area In the past 27 years all of the states reviewed have maintained relatively stable ratios of agricultural land use to total land area The conversion of forests to agricultural use is likely to continue however the general projected drying trend in the area is likely to limit the types of viable agricultural crops Although projected temperature changes may not differ much by season changes in rainfall will likely lead to extended periods of drought and possible loss of soil fertility during the peak growing season in June July and August • Projections for productivity losses in Cuba range from 10 to 15 percent for rice cassava and corn five to 10 percent for sugar cane and 40 to 45 percent for potatoes • Coffee production in Veracruz Mexico is likely to drop over 30 percent by 2020 degrading its economic value to the region Projections for other states in the region are similar though they vary by state and study Further the rise in CO2 levels could result in a fertilizing effect with crops having shorter growing cycles The salinization of ground water supplies due to climate change and sea-level rise may also threaten agricultural productivity Many Central American and Caribbean states have major fishing industries Climate change is likely to lead to changes in migration patterns and depth of fish stocks with possible negative effects on the fishing industry Mexico the Central American states and the Dominican Republic are engaged in free trade agreements with the United States and some of the Caribbean states have established trade pacts with the European Union These agreements regarding the flow of goods including agricultural products and foodstuffs may reduce some populations’ reliance on locally grown crops However climate change is likely to negatively affect the fortunes of subsistence farmers such as those in Mexico Haiti Guatemala who are not engaged in commercial agricultural activities Coastal and Maritime Challenges Climate change scenarios project that sea levels will rise a phenomenon which could be a significant factor for the Caribbean islands and for coastal communities in Mexico and Central America Sea level rise has the potential to create economic losses for coastal populations particularly ports that could not only experience population dislocations but also shifts in commercial traffic The small islands of the Caribbean will probably experience a warming over the next century that may be somewhat smaller than the global annual mean warming Projections for temperature increases in the Caribbean at the end of the 21st century range from 1 4 ºC to 3 2 ºC with a median of 2 0 ºC This level of warming is still likely to lead to significant sea level rise deterioration of coastal areas and erosion of beaches and increased invasion of non-native species while reduced water resources could lead to an inadequacy of fresh water to meet 11 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views demand during low rainfall periods The amount of sea level rise is not likely to be uniform due to geographical differences in the islands Extensive geographical topographical ecological sociological and population density information gathered into a detailed geographic information system GIS is required before predictions are possible A rise in sea levels could also aggregate social tensions in many of the regional states European or mestizo settlers have traditionally pushed indigenous populations in Mexico and Central America away from the most productive land to coastal areas or mountainous zones Were sea level rise to provoke population movement settled indigenous populations could experience further pressure from dislocated populations to move toward even less productive soil This could further intensify emigration from marginal communities creating conditions in which men migrate to more lucrative areas to seek access to land or income while women and children bear the responsibility of maintaining the household and become vulnerable to further land-grabbing efforts Having suffered centuries of racial discrimination often at the hands of state officials socially marginal communities including indigenous populations and those of African descent may be cautious about official efforts to relocate them or mediate conflicts among communities This is certainly the case in Mexico and Guatemala and most likely holds true for some Caribbean communities as well Collective action focused on the needs of indigenous peoples has characterized political movements in both states although the extent to which such movements might gather greater support in the future is unclear Hydrologic Challenges Depletion of aquifers and reduced rainfall in some areas will contribute to water scarcity which may intensify community vulnerabilities to water-related diseases and exacerbate social tensions over access to water for agriculture and domestic uses In Mexico conflicts over water use have created tensions in local communities throughout the state provoking marches blockades and efforts to take over institutions Mexico City is experiencing severe water scarcity and aquifer depletion The city already sits on drained lakes exacerbating infrastructure vulnerable to seismic activity With a population of more than 20 million the city must pump water from great distances and has had to ration water at least three times in 2009 Informal urban settlements rarely count on regular water service and residents of such neighborhoods may have even more restricted access to water with rationing in effect Irregular supply limits users’ access to water for hygienic purposes and can lead to contamination when pipes are not flushed out on a regular basis Water scarcity can lead to tensions between states as well It has already created conflicts between Mexico and the United States over the Rio Grande as well as Mexico and Guatemala over the Usumacinta River Most of the states in Central America share some form of water boundary suggesting that measures must be put in place to resolve conflicts at state and community levels 12 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Demographic and Public Health Challenges Mexico Central America and the Caribbean states all continue to experience population growth albeit at somewhat different rates leading to an increase in food demand Most of the states in these regions depend greatly on agricultural production Variations in crop yields food crops and cash crops present major challenges Increased rainfall sea level rise drought and extreme weather events may provoke populations to migrate to more suitable habitats The arrival of environmental migrants to existing settlements may provoke tensions with local populations and competition over scarce resources Migration may also lead to the separation of families with males leaving home to seek incomegenerating opportunities placing the burden of household maintenance on women and older children Rising temperatures increased rainfall and the movement of populations into new areas may exacerbate or contribute to the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases including diarrheal disease and acute respiratory disease as well as vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever malaria leptospirosis and Chagas disease • Since 1990 the region has experienced a series of re-emerging diseases following severe climatic events such as floods hurricanes and droughts • There is evidence of increases in several communicable diseases such as dengue malaria and Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and the reemergence of a large host of infectious diseases following years in which there were El Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO events While Mexico Costa Rica and Cuba have relatively strong health systems many of the Central American and Caribbean states’ health systems are weaker The migration of health professionals from Mexico the Caribbean and Central America to the United States and Canada and the fact that so many people do not have access to health care creates vulnerabilities Health systems in the region are already burdened by the increasing toll of chronic disease and will need to develop tools to anticipate climate-related outbreaks and develop lab capacity and response to address problems Economic and Energy Challenges Since 1990 the region has experienced large disparities in states’ GDPs Some low values have been the result of economic contraction coupled with political unrest capital flight migration of the better-educated segment of the population and the loss of foreign investments as experienced by Guatemala El Salvador Nicaragua and Haiti from the late 1970s through the 1990s The socio-political challenges of the 1980s and increases in extreme weather events in the 1990s had adverse effects on the fragile economies of the region Instability in the economies exacerbated by the absence of law has greatly reduced the opportunity for recovery States such as El Salvador Guatemala and Nicaragua were directly affected by civil unrest and increased weather-related natural disasters while their neighboring states had to cope with an increase in migrating population because of the difficulties associated with war and natural disasters These same states have also been severely affected by hurricanes floods and tropical storms in the past two decades The potential for resource scarcity especially water to negatively affect the economies in the region is highly probable Many states have agriculture-based economies whose potential negative impact can be assumed However states with growing manufacturing sectors— 13 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Mexico El Salvador Costa Rica and Guatemala—also face challenges from scarcity in addition to increased competition from China and other regions Tourism may also decrease along with remittances from immigrant populations abroad as those regions face their own economic troubles The states in the region which have mostly fossil fuel-based economies are mostly net importers of sources for energy production Since 1984 they have continued to increase their overall energy consumption With the exception of Mexico primary and secondary energy production has remained below total annual consumption Primary energy production refers to the production of energy products or sources found in their natural states such as wood natural gas bagasse and hydroelectricity It also includes the amount of fuel extracted and the energy consumed in the production process and the supply to energy producers and conversion Secondary energy production includes products or sources that are the result of conversion of primary energy products such as all those derived from petroleum refining kerosene and diesel As economies grow and the process of industrialization continues most states in the region will remain highly vulnerable to variable petroleum base supply and cost as experienced in the past few years Mexico is the only state in the region that is a net exporter of energy resources though this is likely to change within the next decade Between 1990 and 2007 regional energy consumption increased 158 percent Moreover Costa Rica Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic increased consumption by about 200 percent while Panama increased by 288 percent in the same period Energy consumption is expected to increase as population and economies continue to grow Energy supply composition across the states remains predominantly based on petroleum with the exceptions of Haiti Nicaragua and Honduras Interestingly these are the three states with the lowest annual GDP growth rates within the group from 1990 to 2007 On the other hand Costa Rica Cuba Panama and the Dominican Republic who experienced the largest annual GDP growth rates in the same period also have the largest shares of oil-based energy supply With the exception of Mexico all states are net importers of petroleum-based products Oilbased energy supply remains significant in particular in the case of the Dominican Republic where it accounted for 74 percent of total energy supply in 2005 and 79 percent in 2002 Island nations such as Cuba Puerto Rico Haiti and the Dominican Republic remain particularly vulnerable to the supply of petroleum-based energy products since the raw material must be brought to the islands by ship for refining and processing The recent discovery of oil reserves off the coast of Cuba should provide some improvement but to what extent remains unclear Hydroenergy plays a significant role only in Costa Rica where it accounts for 18 to 24 percent of supply for the rest of the states it ranged from 0 1 percent in Cuba to 9 8 percent for Panama Civil and Key Interest Group Responses Potential Responses Evidence from previous post-disaster research challenges the idea that full-scaled “flight-orfight” responses are likely for populations in most states in the region with the notable exception of Haiti at least as a direct response to the impacts of climate change alone Rather than limited to “flight-or-fight ” there are a range of responses to climate change-induced hazards that may or may not be adapted at varying spatial organizational and temporal scales 14 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Innovation Intensification Adaptation Historically people and societies have been able to respond to natural hazards and human-generated alterations in the socio-ecological system by adopting innovative innovation adaptation and non-innovative intensification changes to ensure economic survival Adjustments to living and livelihood patterns can stress people and governments but probably significantly less than the alternatives that follow below Adjustments will be geared toward relevant stressors in the different states under consideration and can range from wholesale agricultural alterations in the crop or techniques to improve construction of buildings to withstand extreme climatic conditions Hurricanes and other storms demand technological adjustments while slower-acting change processes such as warming or changes in precipitation may respond well to modifications of existing production techniques These adjustments are most likely the least socially economically and politically disruptive responses to climate change and will be aided by strong civil society institutions due to their ability to moderate relationships between localities and regions and central governments Abandonment Migration Many people in the region currently use temporary or permanent migration as a coping mechanism for socio-economic stressors brought on by economic or political hardship and occasionally by climate related phenomena Large groups of people have previously relocated due to changes in resource availability among other reasons In worst-case scenarios large-scale migration might occur out of areas and perhaps across international borders This migration could place more pressure on an already stressed system and potentially lead to internal or international conflict There are however many moderate migratory activities that can take place—such as rural to urban and rural to rural—all within a single country States in the region have been urbanizing rapidly since the end of the Second World War as has international migration Slow-acting climate change processes may signal almost imperceptible increases in movement while faster acting change can challenge socio-ecological resilience New migrants often representing the extremely poor may pose a threat to the existing social order and potentially give rise to violent backlash Criminal elements such as narcotic traffickers and smugglers often accompany migrants exacerbating existing tensions between and within states Recent examples of migration in the region include Haitians to the Dominican Republic Guatemalans to Mexico and Belize Salvadorans Mexicans Haitians and Dominicans to the United States and Nicaraguans and Panamanians to Costa Rica Except for the 1969 Soccer War between El Salvador and Honduras these movements resulted in muted violence usually at the individual or occasionally community level Sub-state Conflict The states in the region have varying experience with internal conflict throughout their histories Four states—Guatemala Nicaragua Haiti and Mexico—have had or currently have significant conflict-related political ideologies fueled by drastic economic inequalities while Honduras Belize and the Dominican Republic have remained relatively peaceful over the last 25 years None of these conflicts can claim climate change as a necessary or sufficient condition for conflict Increased resource scarcity however may combine synergistically with weak states and economic inequalities leading to organized insurrection Groups already organized for conflict though not resource conflict per se include Mexico’s Zapatistas other similar movements exist across Mexico Mexico’s drug cartels and loosely organized gangs like MS-13 in Central America Interstate Conflict There exist precedents for cases of interstate conflict related to resource issues among other reasons and there is the potential for more to occur especially as migration and intra-state conflict stress developing-state governments In the region of Mexico Central 15 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views America and the Caribbean four major drivers of resource scarcity could lead to increased interstate violence Agricultural land loss or degradation forest loss and degradation fresh water depletion or pollution and fisheries depletion Adaptive Capacity Most estimates of vulnerability rely on easily attainable statistics—economic capacity human capital and environmental capacity—that ignore less quantifiable but important factors on how human-natural systems interrelate namely social interaction Such estimates fail to recognize the enormous adaptive capacity most societies possess under the right social conditions At the local level adaptation may result from individual or group innovation but appears unlikely to be widespread without governmental and civil society cooperation Civil society in the region has a long if uneven history States like Mexico possess robust civil society organizations such as the Catholic Church environmental and social non-governmental organizations NGOs and ethnic organizations Other states such as Guatemala are in the process of rebuilding civil society much of which was targeted during that state’s civil war In some cases such as Haiti civil society may be more present in migration destinations— primarily the United States and France—due to internal problems with Haitian social and economic interactions It is in enhancing adaptive capacity that civil society may play its most important role In most of the region important state functions such as environmental management food distribution and health care have been ceded to civil society of a religious environmental or ethnic nature • The Mexican NGO PRONATURA or international NGOs manage most parks and reserves in Mexico due to the state’s inability to pay for and monitor environmental conditions • Haitian food distribution networks are largely based on the role of the Catholic clergy and laity or the increasing number of non-Catholic Christian organizations • Domestic and international NGOs in Guatemala communicate ethnic demands and concerns to the state Development agencies including USAID and the Inter-American Development Bank are working with states in the region to gather information and develop tool kits to help governments assess their vulnerabilities and better prepare for the physical economic and human toll of extreme weather events Additionally the Caribbean Community CARICOM has instituted several initiatives to bring governments and NGOs together in productive cooperation • The Instituto de Nutrición de Centroamérica y Panamá INCAP based in Guatemala provides advice and technical support to governments working to resolve nutrition problems associated with food scarcity Under nutrition continues to be a challenge for some populations in Mexico Central America and the Caribbean even as problems related to obesity diabetes and cardiovascular disease are beginning to pose economic and social challenges to regional health systems • In the Caribbean CARICOM representatives agreed to establish the Caribbean Public Health Agency CARPHA to improve disease surveillance in the region • Belize hosts the CARICOM Caribbean Community Climate Change Research Center which serves as a regional repository for climate data and conducts research on the projected effects of global warming in the region The Center also provides climate change data to member 16 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views states to help them prepare for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCC Conference of Parties in Copenhagen in December of 2009 Given that the states in the region do not significantly contribute to global warming the Center provides considerable economic data charting the effects of warming on states’ economies and the projected effects • The Caribbean Environmental Health Institute CEHI a CARICOM entity based in St Lucia provides technical assistance on water safety plans and on water-related climate planning throughout the region • A partnership involving the Pan American Health Organization the International Water Association and the Asociación Inter-Americano de Ingenieros Sanitarios AIDIS is introducing states to water safety to facilitate water quality planning at the catchment level with experts from Honduras Mexico and Jamaica playing key roles in the organization In addition the goals of many civil society organizations focus on capacity building at the local level Knowledge dissemination education and production research carried out locally promises to enhance adaptive capacity through increased recognition of problems associated with climate change alternative economic activities and ability to communicate with the government when problems arise This capacity building can be aided by international cooperation with international NGOs government agencies and private enterprise from the United States and elsewhere In those states with high levels of political pluralism civil liberties and participation Panama Mexico civil society has the potential to play a positive role in mitigating the impacts of climate change Weaker democracies such as Guatemala Nicaragua and El Salvador or Honduras continue to strive to recover from civil war or natural disaster It is difficult to predict how strongly centralized states Cuba or chronically disorganized states Haiti will be able to adapt to the predicted changes associated with climate change Should adaptive capacities fail to meet the needs of climatic challenges large-scale flight is likely with the United States and Mexico bearing the largest immigration burdens In the case of Haiti this is a near certainty State Responses The region of Mexico Central America and the Caribbean lags most other major regions as an emitter of greenhouse gases that are believed to contribute to global warming yet it is on the frontlines of the potential consequences including mega-storms droughts and impacts on agriculture eco-systems and epidemiology This blunt disparity is even greater for the small and micro-economies that make up most of Central America and the Caribbean The region’s relative paralysis and reactive approach to climate change may be driven primarily by other demands for their scarce resources and a recognition that limiting carbon emissions within the region will barely impact the overall trajectory of global climate change Any effective effort to combat the host of climatic threats to the region must overcome other challenges in the region to include weak institutions inadequate or deteriorating infrastructure pollution unmanaged deforestation high levels of poverty overcrowding of urban areas and inefficient means of agricultural production If fishermen and subsistence farmers are unable to earn a living through traditional activities because of global warming they will need to learn new ways of generating income to support their families It will be important for governments and development agencies to help such populations identify alternative livelihoods 17 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views International Efforts It is currently unclear how effective regional and international bodies can be though several exist in many of the states in question In many cases state governments have partnered with international NGOs as a means of interstate cooperation and coordination • Health Ministers cooperate through the Sistema de Integración de Centroamérica SICA and CARICOM and health is a recurrent theme at the Summits of the Americas • For the Caribbean states participation in the United Nations Small Island Developing States Network has enabled some governments to gather information about the projected effects of sea level rise and to anticipate the changes that will affect their territories Through their involvement in CARICOM processes governments in the Caribbean participate in regional discussions about climate change preparedness and adaptation • Mexico along with Canada and the United States is a member of the Global Health Security Action Group GHSAG and has worked with Canada and the United States to develop mutual assistance protocols in the event of a public health emergency States in the region have also undertaken their own initiatives alone and in conjunction with neighbors • In 2008 Mexico’s President Felipe Calderón proposed the establishment of a global “Green Fund” to provide support to states seeking to develop their capacities to adapt to climate change scenarios • In 2004 Mexico hosted the fourth World Water Forum making a special effort to highlight water issues in the region • Mexico and Guatemala established an International Commission on Limits and Waters in 1961 that may serve as an example to others Mexico and Cuba have the greatest potential to play a global leadership role in combating climate change although the small-island states of the English-speaking Caribbean may be galvanized to collective action and use their disproportionate vulnerability to climate change to help shape the debate While most of the states in this region may lack the institutional mechanisms to effectively address the threats posed by climate change Mexico can credibly claim sufficient resources to do so Cuba meanwhile has thus far demonstrated great institutional capacity to deal with near-term threats such as hurricanes but is otherwise subject to similar constraints as its neighboring states Cuba and Haiti Cuba and Haiti offer good case studies for the region Both are post-revolutionary lowtechnology and low-income societies Cuba has a highly centralized sociopolitical structure formed mostly around the military while Haiti is highly decentralized These two cases highlight the range of state capacity for much of the region Cuba has a well-structured system of research programs that covers a wide variety of problems focused on understanding the economic technical intellectual and cultural development of the state The country has the capacity to mobilize its population in advance of hurricanes that periodically strike the island The Cuban military is the organizational core of the state marshaling human and political capital through its networks Its one million-strong Milicia Territorial is in charge of natural disasters and has operated with amazing efficiency as is 18 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views evident from the extremely low human toll during the most severe storms In 2004 two hurricanes Charley and Ivan and a prolonged drought caused $3 billion in losses 33 percent more than the earnings from tourism that year and with virtually no loss of life Despite these strengths Cuba lacks any significant capacity to recover from storm damage Reasons for this include • Cuba has been unable to generate sufficient internal resources to invest for a sustained recovery • Cuba’s international credit-worthiness is poor there is limited access to external credits and loans • It is impossible to restrict consumption further to divert resources to investment as consumption is already depressed • The enterprise management reform process perfeccionamiento empresarial is new and very slow in implementation and therefore the central control of enterprises and government functions remains • Political and social structural impacts hamper reconstructive efforts such as the decline in real wages increase in disguised unemployment steeper income stratification and resource and wealth hoarded by the elites Worrying demographic trends further hamper Cuba’s ability to address recovery and development issues Cuba’s population is declining due to low fertility out-migration and a dramatically aging population Migratory trends have drastically altered the ethnic makeup of Cuba—70 percent of the Cuban population is black mostly of Jamaican origin up from 30 percent 60 years ago and migration into the cities has resulted in extreme over crowding Havana which represents 0 67 percent of the nation’s land mass comprises 25 percent of the nation’s population Haiti on the other hand is already a failed state and faces an ecological crisis There is virtually no state presence outside of Port-au-Prince where 90 percent of all government employees live and work leaving the rest of the country in the hands of non-governmental organizations The Haitian government is among the weakest in the world in terms of providing essential public services Both the Haitian and Cuban cases contain lessons for states attempting to contend with the deleterious effects of climate change • Excessive state control and centralization of decisionmaking such as exists in Cuba might well work to prepare the populace in the face of natural disasters but proves much less efficient in helping that state recover from the damages caused by those disasters • Complete decentralization and minimal state involvement as in Haiti neither prepares the populace nor has the capacity to recover after the storms 19 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views Regional Implications Should the societies in question fail to properly adapt to climate change increased migration and competition for scarce resources may raise tensions between neighboring states to the point of conflict Civil conflicts are more likely than state-on-state violence though some conflicts may straddle this divide Of the potential areas of future conflict exacerbated by the effects of climate change three merit special attention The Dominican Republic and Haiti There are multiple signs that the future trajectory of this relationship is unsustainable with the potential for an escalation in violence Vastly different levels of development with per capita GDP estimated at $8 100 versus $1 300 in 2008 in purchasing power parity terms explosive population growth unfettered out-migration from Haiti to the Dominican Republic and deepening racial and cultural tensions all raise the risk of violent conflict This could take the form of civil unrest in Haiti or actions taken against Haitians by the Dominican military The fact that Hispaniola sits in a major storm path also raises the possibility of hurricane-induced catastrophe affecting one or both nations The Guatemala-Honduras-Nicaragua Zone of Instability Although not as dire as the situation on Hispaniola the Guatemala-Honduras-Nicaragua axis poses another regional flashpoint for many of the same reasons The three states will likely experience rapid population growth against the backdrop of comparatively low levels of development respectively $5 200 $4 400 and $2 900 in 2008 per capita GDP figures which contrast sharply with Mexico at $14 200 and are lower than Belize at $8 600 and El Salvador at $6 200 Given the low adaptive capacity generally assessed for these states and the projected population growth extensive out-migration from Belize may combine with pressures on Mexico’s southern border to provoke conflict The relative exposure of Honduras and Nicaragua to powerful Caribbean storms further heightens the potential for disruption The US-Mexican Border Increases in the frequency and scale of natural disasters caused from climate change could have a threat multiplier effect on immigration to the United States US immigration is principally rooted in issues of economic deprivation and disparity If certain areas of Mexico Central America and the Caribbean become uninhabitable—either due to rising sea levels and temperatures or because traditional agricultural and water resources cannot be sustained—then pressure on the US-Mexican border will increase The potential for new climate-related epidemics may also affect the prerogatives for border security The US-Mexican border may emerge as a future flashpoint not as an area directly affected by climate change but rather as a force to contend with the intensified migratory patterns that result Overall Foreign Policy Implications The region’s relative impotence in shaping the future trajectory of global climate change coupled with the likelihood that it will bear the brunt of some of the most severe repercussions will likely exacerbate several troubling tendencies in the region’s politics In Central America and the Caribbean these include populist measures to control domestic natural resources greater suspicion and skepticism towards the United States Europe and traditionally dominant powers and greater orientation towards powerful southern neighbors such as Brazil and Venezuela Insofar as the predicted rapid growth of China and India contribute to high levels of carbon emissions this may lead to a diminution of these states’ relative authority and popularity 20 This paper does not represent US Government views This paper does not represent US Government views If Mexico ceases to be a net oil exporter and does not harness the economic potential of new technologies then it may falter as a regional force as well This may result in Mexico Central America and the Caribbean becoming increasingly inward looking consumed by internal problems and remaining at the margins of global action on climate change In relations with the United States they will remain vigilant The United States is the single greatest determinant of change in the region—from water division issues with Mexico to political hegemony and aid support If the United States seeks collaborative and effective regional mechanisms to jointly manage the challenges of climate change this may provide a new opportunity for strengthening relations The implications for US foreign policy are great • Providing ever-increasing humanitarian assistance to neighbors in need • Avoiding catastrophic waves of refugees • Avoiding the need to intervene militarily as so often done in the Caribbean • Gathering goodwill in this area of scientific expertise goodwill that should be advantageous in serving other US geopolitical and national security purposes Cuba represents a potential US partner once Fidel Castro is no longer in power Cuban doctors have lived and worked throughout the region creating a goodwill network along with bolstering the local medical systems Cuba’s medical and pharmaceutical resources in the region are second only to the United States and already well in place The United States could partner with Cuba in the creation of a rapid deployment humanitarian force using Cuban resources and US funds The first step would be direct talks between the US and Cuban militaries as the Cuban military is the most organized force in the state and has access to US forces through proximity at the Guantanamo Naval Base Additionally the United States should partner with Mexico to contain carbon emissions and directly address climate change challenges Having established relationships and plans in place will be essential in dealing with whatever is to come Climate Change Negotiations In approaching climate change negotiations with Mexico Central American and the Caribbean states the United States needs to bear in mind that in many cases governments in the region may lack the capacity or will to deliver on their policy promises Moreover with the exception of Mexico most of the states in question are not significant greenhouse gas emitters Belize is even a net remover of greenhouse gasses Although the states of the region may readily sign on to a climate change agreement their ability to affect global climate change is limited Mexico along with India China and Brazil feels that it represents the interests of the developing world Mexico has the ability to take a global leadership position on climate change more so than with its regional neighbors It may sign a climate change agreement but likely will be unable to enforce it effectively 21 This paper does not represent US Government views