UNCLASSIFIED NOT FOR PUBLICATION UNTIL RELEASED BY THE HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITEE ON INTELLIGENCE STATEMENT OF MR JEFF RINGHAUSEN OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE SENIOR NAVAL INTELLIGENCE MANAGER RUSSIA AND EURASIA BEFORE THE HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT JUNE 5 2019 NOT FOR PUBLICATION UNTIL RELEASED BY THE HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE 1 UNCLASSIFIED Mr Jeff Ringhausen Senior Naval Intelligence Manager For Russia and Eurasia Office of Naval Intelligence The Russian Government’s maritime related efforts with respect to climate change are primarily in the Arctic and focused on two goals The first is securing Russia’s economic interests in its Arctic zone the second goal is military modernization primarily of the forces within the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command OSK-Northern Fleet Nearly all Russian armed forces in the Arctic are subordinated to this command To further its maritime economic interests the Russian Government is modernizing infrastructure along its northern coast and on some of its Arctic islands The goal is to be able to monitor protect and defend its Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ in the Arctic and to enforce a regulatory regime across the Northern Sea Route NSR The NSR is located within Russia’s EEZ between the big island of Novaya Zemlya and the Bering Strait As climate change has made portions of the Arctic navigable for a longer period of the year the Russian Government has promoted the NSR and its Arctic region as possibilities for increased shipping and investment Moscow believes that there is substantial economic potential in the Arctic Naval Intelligence assesses that this economic potential exists but that the Russian Government appears overly optimistic regarding its development in the nearand medium-term This applies both to the NSR becoming a major shipping lane and to expanded resource extraction Climate change will not make these resources easier to extract – either ashore or offshore nor is it likely to change the basic geography or economics of shipping that make the NSR unlikely to become a major and highly trafficked maritime thoroughfare While Arctic shipping is likely to increase it will remain a miniscule portion of global shipping From a military perspective Russia’s primary military power in the Arctic is resident in the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet based in ice-free harbors near Murmansk on the Barents Sea The Northern Fleet’s primary mission is to operate a submarine force providing a sea- 2 UNCLASSIFIED based strategic deterrent as part of Moscow’s nuclear triad Much of the Northern Fleet is focused on supporting this submarine sea-based deterrent force Climate change is unlikely to have much if any impact on the Northern Fleet and its primary missions Greater variability in sea ice coverage is the most relevant climate change impact however since the Northern Fleet largely operates in the Barents Sea which is icefree year round there is virtually no impact on naval operations in this region Because Russian strategic submarines are built to operate in ice zones climate change is unlikely to have large systemic impact Other than strategic deterrence the Northern Fleet’s mission include the overall defense of the Arctic approaches to Russia To this end work is underway to refurbish and re-establish military infrastructure required to monitor protect and defend Russia’s northern regions Russia is modernizing maritime frontier outposts area surveillance sensors and airfields It is also developing a chain of search and rescue stations to enable emergency response should maritime traffic along the NSR require assistance - usn - 3