UNCLASSIFIED NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL 1111111111 MEMORANDUM NICM 2020-05949 10 July 2020 U Water Insecurity Threatening Global Economic Growth Political Stability U Much of World Already Water Stressed U Key Takeaway In many parts of the world populations already lack water security-defined as the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health livelihoods ecosystems and production Each year at least 4 billion people nearly half in China and India experience severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year Nearly 500 million people are exposed to water scarcity all year long U Scope Note This memorandum examines global water security issues over the next 20 to 30 years It was drafted in response to a Congressional requirementfor a report on the implications ofwater insecurity induding consideration of social economic agricultural and environmentalfactors U Governments industry and civil society are facing an increasing risk of water insecurity as demand grows and supply is increasingly strained U • Development practices agriculture and environmental degradation are contnbuting to increased demand while also diminishing the quantity and quality of water supplies in many • U parts of the world U As of 2020 about 2 1 billion people worldwide lack access to safe drinking water or reliable water service U Mismatch Between Supply and Demand Population growth lifestyle changes development and agricultural practices and environmental degradation will contribute to an increasing demand for water during the next 20 to 30 years while decreasing both the quantity and quality of water Global water use is likely to increase by 20 to 50 percent above current levels by 2050 with industrial and domestic sectors growing at the fastest pace Agriculture will remain the largest overall consumer of water but is likely to have a smaller relative increase U • Poor governance and resource management are behind the majority of these problems While developing countries will continue to experience more acute and pervasive water insecurity some developed countries will also experience water U strains Countries that are unable to adequately address water challenges probably will face health and disease problems growing inequality poor economic growth and a greater risk of internal political instability Shared water resources among states are increasingly likely to become flashpoints as water security diminishes and geopolitical competition grows U U • U As people move up the income ladder and states' economies grow people's lifestyles are likely to become more water intensive This trend will occur predominantly through indirect means such as changes in diet as well as through increased demand for goods that require large quantities of water to produce such as cars electronics clothing and larger homes This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Council under the al Spices ofthe Director oft te Strategic Furures Group It was drafted by the Central Intelligence Agency and coordinated with CIA DIA NGA and NSA Questions may be directed to the Director SFG 011 secure 933-2692 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 • NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL Average groundwater use per person probably will increase during the next 20 years In large parts of the Middle East and Sou th Asia as well as in Beijing and Mexico City groundwater is the primary source of water but years of overexploitation and pollution have severely degraded and reduced the supplies in some cases irreversibly U U China's Three Gorges Dam The Largest Hydropower Structure in the World U A trash collection boat picks up garbage floating on the Yangtze River behind the Three Gorges Dam China's push for economic growth during the past 40 years has severely degraded water quality and altered the flows of its largest rivers Development Practices Many industrial and infrastructure development practices including overuse of groundwater surface water diversions large dams unregulated mining and extractive industries and urban development without adequate sanitation erode water security by reducing soil capacity to store water decreasing groundwater recharge and increasing evaporation erosion and pollution U • • • Globally about 80 percent of industrial and municipal wastewaters are discharged untreated into waterways that communities use for drinking bathing and agriculture Groundwater pollution is of particular concern as contaminants move more slowly through groundwater than surface water sometimes taking years or decades to affect water quality U In megacities such as Dhaka Karachi and Lagos poor sanitation and waste management practices will increasingly strain water supplies in the next few decades Lagos for example has 200 informal settlements and 80 percent ofresidents rely on private water boreholes increasing the risk of sewage contamination or water supplies U U About 3 700 large hydropower dams are planned or under construction worldwide primarily in Africa and Asia according to Western academic reporting These structures often lack careful design regulation and management causing long-term water security problems such as fragmentation of river systems damage to fisheries and aquatic ecosystems increased riverbank and coastal erosion and decreased water quality UNCLASSIFIED NIC • 2007-00861-A Agricultural Practices Global water demand for agriculture-the single largest human use of water- is projected by UN experts to increase by about 60 percent from 2012 levels as early as 2025 largely because of increasing demand for food By 2040 about 40 percent of all irrigated agriculture is expected to face extremely high water stress U Irrigation and planting practices are often inefficient and unsustainable globally about half of the water withdrawn for irrigation does not reach the intended crops and poor soil and planting techniques reduce water infiltration into the ground • U • U Agricultural wastewater runoff is the most prevalent global water quality challenge The discharge oflarge quantities of nitrogen and phosphorus into waterways promotes toxic algal blooms and reduces oxygen causing die-offs of fish and other aquatic organisms 2J UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL U Abandoned Fishing Boats Along U Weak Governance Enabling Mismatch Former Coast of the Aral Sea U The Aral Sea in Central Asia once one of the world's largest lakes is pow one of the greatest environmental disasters measuring only a fraction of its 1950s size because of Soviet-era irrigation projects to grow cotton in the desert U In many countries ineffective governance and policies fail to address-and frequently enable-the mismatch between water demand and supply Key governance problems include corruption and a lack of trust low prioritization of water issues and minimal coordination among government entities the private sector and civil society Many water security risks would be more manageable during the next two decades particularly in the developing world if leaders placed a priority on governance and policy reforms Com1ption and Trust Government corruption in the water sector often hinders full and fair enforcement of laws and regulations diverts money from the development or maintenance of water projects causes inequities in water distribution and inflates costs Corrupt govern ments frequently invest in large water infrastructure projects including dams because they are easy to skim from and sound good politically and economically U LU UNCLASSIFIED NIC • 2007-00861-B Environmental Degradation Anthropogenic degradation of landscapes and waterscapes and climate change are effecting the quantity quality and timing of water supplies Natural land water and climate systems are a complex interdependent network such that a change in one system can have wide ranging and unintended consequences in the others U • On average about 40 percent of all rainfall over land originates from local plant transpiration and evaporation although the percentage is much higher in some regions Degraded landscapes that change plant composition or density can have significant impacts on local weather and water availability • U • U Multiple climate models indicate increasing variability intensity and occurrence of droughts and floods Rainfall almost certainly will decline in mid-latitude regions and all areas are expected to have higher evaporation rates because of rising temperatures increasing demand for water for irrigation At the same time increased water in the atmosphere is increasing the likelihood of extreme storms and other weather phenomenon U Brazil's 'Operation Car Wash' scandal that began in 2014 revealed corruption related to the awarding of construction contracts including several mega-dams in the Amazon River Basin The consortium behind one dam was investigated for paying millions of dollars in bribes to the ruling party at the time to secure the concession This dam destroyed hundreds of square miles of rain forest and crop lands displacing at least 20 000 people Prioritization and Blame Deflection Many governments consider water governance and management a lower level priority including in some wealthy technically savvy countries Water in some cases is buried in uninfluential ministries or agencies or is relegated as a secondary resource that is managed in a piecemeal manner from other government bodies In some countries it is separated from the management and governance of other sectors including agriculture energy and industry despite water being a critical resource for all of those activities U 3J UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 U NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL The Earth's Water and Current Human Use UJ Th i s graphic is UNCLASS I Fl ED Freshwater Withdrawals Water Distribution Sector usage of withdrawn water Rivers lakes and groundwater I percent Oceans I 97 5 percent Agriculture Domestic and other industrial 68 I 19 Power 10 Evaporation from reservoirs Fresh water I 3 2 5 Freshwater Consumption I Groundwater I Permafrost I Glaciers Surface and atmosphere Freshwater lakes I 30 1 0 8 Rivers lakes and groundwater I 0 4 12 0 Atmosphere 9 5 Rivers Vegetation I percent 67 5 Soil moisture Wetlands I Consumptive use of withdrawn water by sector 68 7 Agriculture Domestic and other industrial I 8 5 93 7 1 5 1 0 releasi11g waterji-om a dam to drive hydroelectric turbi11es is ge em y a 11011co11sumptive use because 1lte water is available far dow11stream user bu not necessarily al the appropria1e time Withdmwals by a city far domes1ic and i11dustrial use are mainly 11onconsumpti1•e bur ifthe returning water is i11adequately treated the quality oftlte water dow11slream is affected U Source Multiple as quoted by World Ba11k 2010 U Note When humans use ware they affect thequalllity 1imi11g orqualiry of water available to other users Water for human use typically irivolves withdmwillg waterfrom lakes rivers orgroundwater and eitherco11sumi11g it so that it reemers the atmospheric part ofthe hydrological cycle or rerumi11g it to the hydrological basin Whe11 irriga1ed crops use water ii is consumptive use-it becomes u11availablefor use elsewhere it1 the basi11 11 contrast NIC • 2007-00861-C UNCLASSIFIED 4 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 • NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL coordinate water use or water regulations even when they draw water from the same source In addition inadequate monitoring and data collection frequently hinder a government's ability to manage water resources effectively and efficiently Government policies frequently prioritize short-term economic or political gain over longterm water sustainability An academic study on environmental security issues found that in northern N igeria local governments tend to see water resource allocation issues through ethnic and religious lenses instead of through measures of overall sustainability U Developing Countries More Vulnerable Developed Countries Not Immune U Governments at times falsely invoke climate factors or the ostensible misdeeds of upstream countries as the primary cause of water insecurity usually to cover for the failures of environmental governance or to gain or U Developing and emerging economies will be most vulnerable to water security risks during the next 20 years given their naturally complex variable and hazardous hydrologies and their governance shortcomings According to the World Bank if current poor water management policies continue by 2040 water security will decline in many areas that are not naturally water scarce-such as pa1ts of Central Africa East and Southeast Asia and Latin America-and water security will further deteriorate in areas where water resources are naturally in short supply-including large stretches of the Middle East North Africa and the Sahel U maintain a position of power in a shared water basin • • In 2018 the Iraqi Government repeatedly blamed T urkey Iran and drought for the lack of safe water in the southern part of the country w hich had resulted in a severe outbreak of waterborne illnesses and extensive protests In reality there was above average precipitation that year and neither Turkey nor Iran had significantly altered their water management Instead the Iraqi Government had ordered the release of more water earlier in the year for a new rice crop around the city of Baghdad before national elections U • Most Middle East and North African countries are likely to see continued steep declines in their overall water security because of ongoing conflicts weak or corrupt governments increasing demand high levels of pollution unsustainable ground and surface water use and natural water scarcity Countries of particular concern include Egypt Iraq Iran Jordan Libya Syria and Yemen In addition many of these countries- including those in the Jordan N ile and T igris River Basins- have ongoing transboundary water disputes with neighbors potentially further complicating and reducing their ability to more effectively and sustainably manage water resources • U In Iran the government and local scientists have blamed the extensive shrinkage of Lake Urmia in the country's far northwest solely on climate change Separate academic research however indicates that the nearly tripling of water consumption for irrigation in the basin since the 1980s the Jack of enforced water regulation and environmental laws and limited wastewater treatment were the main causes of the lake's decline U Coordination Lack of coordination among government agencies the private sector and civil society frequently leads to mismanagement and the overallocation of water resources T he interdependencies among water energy and food are often not recognized in water governance and management Most notably energy agriculture and water agencies often do not U U Many countries in South and Central Asia and parts of Southeast Asia are also likely to face declining water security because of corruption unenforced or poor environmental laws h igh levels of pollution environmentally degrading development and growing water demand from s l UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL agriculture textiles and fishing Geopolitical tensions could strain existing water-sharing agreements or prevent future cooperation • • China especially the northern region around Beijing and along the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers is likely to have rising demand and pollution problems due in part to ongoing development projects China also is likely to contribute to increasing water challenges for its downstream neighbors such as Bangladesh India and Laos and international trading partners because of its upstream development along transboundary rivers-including the Brahmaputra and Mekong Basins- and its increasing global demand for water intensive goods such as meat and electronics Control of critical water sources may also have been a contributing factor in the recent border skirmishes between China and India U Within Latin America Bolivia El Salvador Honduras Mexico N icaragua and Venezuela are some of the countries at the highest risk of declining water security through 2040 These countries have some combination of weak governments large projected population growth current water security issues and internal conflict In Africa for similar reasons as those in Latin America parts of southern Africa the Sahel and Horn regions are likely to continue to have high levels of water insecurity especially the L_ake Chad and Nile River Basins and parts of Mali Mozambique N igeria Somalia coastal South Africa and the Sudans • U More arid areas in developed countries probably are at risk of spatially and temporally localized water insecurity including many parts of Australia and areas along the Black Sea and the Medite1Tanean • U The push for economic recovery in the wake of the COVID- 19 pandemic is likely to encourage some countries to relax environmental and regulatory laws or support less environmentally friendly development projects that could cause long-term harm to their water security and overall societal and economic wellbeing U Broader Implications of Water Insecurity M ore frequent and severe water security problems during the next 20 to 30 years are likely to touch almost all elements of global life including personal security economic growth political stability and interstate conflict U U Many developed countries are likely to face more frequent and severe water security risks during the next 20 years but should have greater technical and economic capacity to adapt to or mitigate the impacts Most water security challenges in the developed world probably will be localized and short term However-as the COVID19 pandemic has demonstrated-some wealthier countries also lack adequate resilience mechanisms to manage multiple or cascading threats simultaneously and thus remain vulnerable to systemic shocks Personal Security Declining water security almost always equates to a decrease in individual livelihoods health and overall wellbeing and is felt unequally within countries Poor and vulnerable groups usually pay more than affluent neighbors for water typically of a lesser quality This disparity contributes to a water-poverty link where water insecure populations tend to lose more work and education hours to illness or taking care of ill family members and to daily water gathering activities U In the developing world women and children are most often responsible for retrieving water in many cases traveling several hours to access supplies In addition at least 443 million school days are lost each year because of water-related illnesses according to a development NGO • U • T he rural poor disproportionately depend on the natural environment especially rivers lakes and wetland habitats to sustain or supplement livelihoods and food security When governments or industry develop water resources without adequate consideration for environmental wellbeing and sustainability they often widen the poverty gap between rural and urban dwellers U U 6l UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL One of the greatest water security risks is the deterioration of a population's health particularly the increased prevalence of disease This deterioration is especially true where water pollution is high and populations lack access to adequate sanitation and wastewater treatment An estimated 80 percent of all diseases are waterborne and others spread more easily when populations lack access to safe water for handwashing according to UNICEF and the WHO per year Conversely countries with limited access to safe water and sanitation but similar incomes averaged growth ofonly about 0 1 percent in GDP per year during the same time p eriod U • • Treatable diarrheal diseases stemming from drinking unsafe water and a lack of adeq ate sanitation cost the lives of at least 1 6 million children under the age of five each year according to the WHO Water-related diseases affect at least 1 5 billion people annually U Water scarcity has indirect health impacts as well Already about half of the developing world's hospital beds are occupied by people with waterrelated illness complicating efforts to manage other health crises such as the current pandemic Also as rivers and lakes dry up animals may seek out drinking water in more heavily populated areas increasing the chance of contact between humans and wildlife and the disease-carrying insects they U In 2016 disclosing companies reported $14 billion in water-related impacts a fivefold increase from the past year and a quarter of companies experienced detrimental impacts from water All companies expect water risks to affect them to varying degrees within the next six years Political Stability During the next two decades declining water security is likely to exacerbate existing social grievances and divisions potentially triggering conflict between societal groups and industry sectors and increasing the risk of political instability U U host Economic Security Reduced water security over the next 20 to 30 years is likely to harm businesses industries and the overall economic wellbeing of many countries Water is essential for creating and maintaining jobs with at least half of the global workforce employed in water and natural-resource dependent industries including agriculture forestry fisheries energy manufacturing recycling construction and transportation Economic modeling by the World Bank indicates that if current water governance policies are continued some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa the Middle East and Asia will shrink by up to 6 percent of GDP by 2050 because of water-related losses in agriculture health income and property During the past 25 years low income countries with access to adequate safe water and sanitation experienced an average GDP growth of 3 7 percent U • Many parts of the world have already experienced civil umest or political discontent because of water-related problems which are likely to become more frequent and potentially more severe during the next 20 years In the last 10 years mass protests related to water some of which have become violent have occurred in Algeria Brazil China Egypt India Iran Iraq and South Africa U Interstate Relations Contestation over the management of shared river and groundwater basins probably will increase during the next two to three decades as water demand pollution and environmental degradation increase Agreements over shared water basins in the past have decreased the risk of conflict among stakeholders but given the intensification of water security risks and a more competitive geopolitical landscape cooperation in combination with good water governance and management is likely to be more difficult to achieve in the years ahead U U • • In addition in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many governments will face stronger pressure from their populations to improve their economies requiring adequate and sustainable water supplies Countries that share a single water resource are likely to feel increasing pressure to gain proprietary rights over the use of that water from neighbors U 7l UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED N I C 1111111111 • NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL U Approximately 300 surface water basins and 600 shared aquifers cross international borders but many lack effective coordinated management mechanisms or sustainable water use agreements • The presence of an agreement between countries that share a water resource does not guarantee effective or sustainable management of resources In some cases-including the Indus and N ile River Basins-the agreement itself constrains governments or reduces their willingness to enact potentially more sustainable water management practices • Many of the world's most important transboundary basins are already overexploited and severely degraded We assess the following basins are at the greatest risk of potential conflict in the next few decades the Aral Sea Basin the Brahmaputra River the Lake Chad Basin the Euphrates-Tigris Basin the Indus River Basin the Jordan River Basin the Mekong River Basin and the Nile River Basin U U Fishing Boats On the Mekong River in Northern Thailand U Upstream Chinese dams in early 2020 severely reduced Mekong River flows through northern Thailand and Laos degrading fishing and other livelihood activities for downstream populations U UNCLASSIFIED 8I UNCLASSIFIED NIC • 2007-00861-D