F-2025-02150 UNCLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY A-00000867290 UNCLASSIFIED 5 6 2025 INR Climate Change in Sudan a Compounding Factor for Darfur Violence The Juba Peace Agreement was signed in 2020 but experts note that the Sudanese government has yet to address the nult faceted drivers underpinning the complex crisis in Daifur The International Organization for Migration estimates that the January-July 2021 displacement of Dar furis exceeds 250 000-more than four times the number displaced by conflict in all o 2020 and the largestfigure reported in Da fur since 2014 According to experts the main contributor to the conflict in Darfur continues to be politicized ethnic and tribal differences but climate change is a compounding factor because it has exacerbated a competition for resources Ethnic and tribal divisions that were manipulated by the former government and inflamed by rival militias largely are driving the conflict in Darfur However according to experts climate change-driven resource competition especially for land is among the many compounding factors 1•2•3 Before creeping desertification and drought took hold in the region in the late 1960s most Arab herders and settled farmers maintained a symbiotic relationship of traditional agricultural patterns and activity 45 The expansion of the Sahara desert south by almost one mile every year and significant annual declines in median rainfall ccurring decades before the outbreak of the 2003 war in Darfur- compelled farmers to modify their practices They now had to assert exclusive control of previously-shared commons such as land and water resources 6·7 This shift in land use toward Unclassified Int ernal Displacement in Da rfur exclusive ownership barred many herders Internally displaced persons UDAN by state as of 31 July 2021 from their traditional grazing areas and ■ 930 000 eroded the longstanding relationship Darfur_ 8 800 000 between the two groups Limited grazing 340 000 to 420 000 and pasture corridors have resulted in 100 000 conflict and caused what some international observers label the first Khartoum climate change conflict 9· 10 Media report t HAD that changes in land use and management West over time deepened local power struggles Darfur linked to ethnic and tribal land claims and simultaneously eroded traditional disputeresolution mechanisms 11 Reports describe growing ethnic dimensions in these struggles that along with government manipulation and inflated political rhetoric compounded intergroup differences and threats contributing to the genocide against black Darfuri tribes starting in 2003 1213· 14 I Today according to the UN and open-source reporting violence continues in Darfur with an estimated 250 000 Darfuris displaced by conflict from January-July 2021-more than four times the number displaced by conflict in all of 2020 and the largest figure reported in Darfur since 2014 15· 1fi Violence this year has increased the total number of internally displaced in Darfur to approximately 2 6 million according to UN reports see map 17 Climate change remains a compounding factor because Darftff experiences extremely high seasonal variability and water stress rising average temperatures decreasing U CLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY September 29 2021 UNCLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - - - - - - - - - - - - - --2025-O 2i50 --- A-0OOOO 90 NCLASSIJ'JEO 20 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - INR I Commentarv major crop yields and worsening food insecurity 18 Environmental degradation and desertification have reduced the availability of arable land while the demand has increased 19 The 2020 Juba Peace Agreement calls for lands to be returned to original occupants but land rights and access to Jand remain contentious issues 20 In El Genenia West Darfur- an area that experienced clashes and attacks this year between Masalit and Arab tribes-Masalit leaders called for vast tracts of land taken from them to be returned threatening Arab communities that occupy some of those lands 21 The voluntary return of displaced Sudanese adds to the competition for land because many returnees' homes have been occupied by others 22·23 Experts say that any comprehensive solution to address Darfur's instability must extend beyond a political ireaty and recognize the role climate change plays and the future of land use 24 INRJGGJ prepared this Commentary Notice Sharing or disclosing Co111menta1y informatio11 with any 11011-U S Govem111e11t organizatio11 entity or person except for FVEYs requires advance approval from INR Commentaries shall wt be publicly posted or disseminated without INR pennission Requests may be submirted at the sharing request link accessed via INR 's Tempo Home Page site USG Executive Branch Departmems and Agencies and FYEY partners may posr or publish Commentaries for i111ernal use only on UIIFOUO USG-conlrolled or equivalent sites 1101 accessible to the public UNCLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 2 UNCLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - - - - - - - - - - - - - --20 ----•QQQQ 18$7--2S S '-IEC1 _ _-lllJ I -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IDMC Burst of Violence in Darfur Triggers Sudan's Highest umber of Conflict Displacements in Six Years IDMC 18 February 2021 https www internal-displacement org media-centres burstof-violence-in-darfur-triggers-sudans-highest-number-of-conflict-displacements 2 Max Bearak Massacres threaten to engulf Darfur where revenge as substituted for justice The Washington Post 20 April 2021 https www washingtonpost com world 2021 04 20 darfur-sudan -massacres 3 J Andrew Plowman Climate Change and Conflict Prevention Lessons From Darfur National Intelligence University September 2014 4 Stephan Fari 'The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Aptil 2007 https www theatlantic co ml magazine archi ve 2007 04 the-real-roots-of-darfur 305 70 l 5 Zengxin Zhang Chong-Yu Xu Maiduline El-Haj El-Tahir Jianrong Cao V P Singh Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation in Sudan and their possible causes during 1948-2005 Stochas1ic Environmental Research and Risk Assessmem Volume 26 2012 429-441 https doi org 10 l007 s00477-0ll -0512-6 6 Musa Abdul-Jalil and Jon D Unruh Land Rights under Stress in Darfur A Volatile Dynamic of the Conflict War Society Volume 32 Issue 2 2013 156-181 7 Chase Sova The First Climate Change Conflict UN WFP 30 ovember 2017 https www wfpusa org articles the-firstclimate-change-conflict 8 Olsson Ola and Eyerusalem Siba Ethnic cleansing or resource struggle in Darfur An empirical analysis Journal of Development Economics Volume 103 2013 299-312 9 Stephan Faris 'The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic April 2007 https www theatlantic com magazine archj ve 2007 04 the-real -roots-of-darfur 305 70 l 1 Chase Sova The First Climate Change Conflict UN WFP 30 November 2017 https www wfpusa org articles tbefirst-cl imate-change-conflict 11 Stephan Faris The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic April 2007 https www theatlantic com magazi ne archi ve 2007 04 the-real -roots-of-darfur 305 70 l 12 Stephan Faris The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic April 2007 https www theatlantic co ml magazi ne archi ve 2007 04 the-real -roots-of-darfur 305 70 l 13 Olsson Ola and Eyerusalem Siba Ethnic cleansing or resource struggle in Darfur An empirical analysi Journal of Development Economics Volume 103 2013 299-312 14 J Andrew Plowman Climate Change and Conflict Prevention Lessons From Darfur ational Intelligence University September 2014 15 UN OCHA Sudan West Darfur Emergency Situation Report No 2 As of 4 My 2021 ReliefWeb UN OCHA 4 May 2021 https rel iefweb int report sudan s udan-west-daifur-emergency-si tuation-report-no-02-4-may-202 I -enar 16 Jerome Tubiana The revolution was hijacked In ·ide the conflict in Darfur Al Jazeera 6 July 2021 https www aljazeera com features 2021 7 6 the-re vol ution-was-hij ackcd-inside-the-co nJl ict-i n-darfur 17 UNHCR Operational Data Portal UNHCR access date September 21 2021 https data2 unhcr org e n country sdn 18 World Resources Institute Aqueduct Data World Resources Institut access date July 2021 https www wri org aqueduct data 19 Stephan Faris The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic April 2007 Imps www theatlantic com magazine arclu ve 2007 04 the-real-roots-of-darfur 305 70 l 20 Philip Kleinfeld Mohammad Amin What's behind the rising violence in Sudan ' s Darfur The New Humanitarian 8 April 2020 I l1ttps www thenewhumanitarian org news-feature 2021 4 8 whats-behind-the-rising-violence-in-sudans-darfur 21 Philip Kleinfeld Mohammad Amin 'What' s behind the 1ising violence in Sudan's Darfur The ew Huma1utarian 8 April 2020 I l1ttps www thenewhumanitarian org 11ews-feature 2021 4 8 whats-behind-the-1ising-violence-in-sudans-darfur 22 Oxfam International atural resource conflict escalate Darfur crisis Oxfam International 29 April 2014 https www oxfam org en press-releases naturaJ-resource-conflicts-escalate-darfur-crisis 23 Zurab Elzarov Emerging options for durable solutions in Darfur Forced Migration Review October 2019 https www fmreview org sites fmr files FMRdownJoads en return elzarov pdf 24 Stephan Faris 'The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic April 2007 https www theatlantic com magaz ine arc bj ve 2007 04 the-real-roots-of-darfur 3 05 70 l ° U CLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 3