U NC LASS I Fl ED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 1112014 UNCLASSIFIED @INFO E 00 00 PRS OO PRS 00 SSO OO WO WO OO 00 G 00 SP OO SS 00 00 H OO MMP2 00 H 00 MMP2 00 MR OO MR 00 SRPP OO SRPP OO SS 0 0 T 00 0 0 SS OO 241214Z AUG 98 STePS TOTAL TOTAL COPIES 000 COPIES OOO ACTION OES-Ol OES-01 INFO LOG-00 CIP-00 E-00 • ADS-00 PRS-00 PRS-0 0 EPAE-00 ACDA-08 ACDE-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 COME-00 DINT-00 TEDE-00 DODE-00 DODE-OO INR-00 SRPP-00 I0-00 10-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 EAP-Ol EB-00 EAP-01 H-01 ITC-01 L-01 OIC-02 NASA-01 NAS-01 •· NSAE-00 NSF-01 PM-00 SP-00 SS0-00 STR-00 T-00 USIE-00 SSO-OO SS-00 PMB-00 G-00 MR-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 019W 019W S AS - 0 0 628479 241211Z 38 ------------------628479 24l211Z 0O 241154Z 241154Z AUG 98 RELEASED IN PART FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING BEIJING Bl 1 4 D TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE 3150 3150 INFO WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE USDOE WASHDC IMMEDIATE DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE HQEPA WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY SEOUL AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1 C 0 N MHP P II D D E N-T N '±' II A A-L BEIJING 014731 014731 G—0 L BEIJING DOE FOR MARK MAZUR DEPT FOR EAP CM OES SEI OES SEI OES EGC OES EGC WHITE HOUSE FOR TODD STERN STERN CEA JIE CEA JIE ALDY ALDY EPA FOR OIA BILL NITZE OIA BILL NITZE TREASURY FOR RAY SQUITERI SQUITERI ADDITIONAL APPEALS PANEL ACTION ADDITIONAL INFORMATION RELEASED Bl -1 4 D B1 1 4 D I £ E O 12958 DECL 08 30 2008 08 30 2008 TAGS SENV KSCA CH I UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF OF STATE STATE CLASSIFIED BY DEPT OF STATE STATE M M GRAFELD GRAFELD DAS DAS A GIS A GIS REVIEW AUTHORITY ALAN ALANH FLANIGAN H FLANIGAN CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL REASON REASON 1 4 D 1 4 D DECLASSIFY AFTER 23 AUG 2023 2023 DATE CASE ID 23 MAR 2011 200600252 200600252 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 -- UNCLASSIFIED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-002 52 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 ' ' § ' _ eewg IDENT jEAfr I IDFNTIAI r Post BEIJIN MRN 14731 14731 Printed Printed by by Pence Pence Constance Constance A A · 99 12 98 lO SO 12 98 10 50 IMMEDIATE CONFIDENTIAL SUBJECT SCENESETTER FOR USG USG CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE DELEGATION DELEGATION VISIT TO BEIJING SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER 1-3 _ l-3 1998 1998 1 W BOYNTON BOYNTON EST EST OFFICER OFFICER U CLASSIFIED BY ROBERT W REASON 1 5 D D 1 5 2 te7 Following is a three-part three-part scenesetter background scenesetter background fd USG climate climate change change delegation delegation '·· paper prepared for the USG The first part provides background background on on the the Chinese Chinese government its views on climate climate change change and and possible possible strategy for the discussions The second second part part para para 23 23 The describes recent structural structural changes changes in in the the central central government's Climate Change Change Coordinating Coordinating Group Group CCCG CCCG The third third part para 24 24 provides provides aa description description of of key key individuals and possible discussion discussion foci foci for for each each agency agency PART ONE GENERAL BACKGROUND ON CHINA'S CHINA'S GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT 3 Id te7 China's central government government proportionally proportionally much much smaller non-military than the the federal federal government government in in the the U S is undergoing massive reform reform and and streamlining streamlining with with aa stated goal of 50% layoffs layoffs at at the the central central level level Though this target is-unlikely is-unlikely to to be achieved eventual eventual be achieved layoffs may reach 30-40% 30-40 At present present most most ministries' ministries' At a e highly highly unsettled unsettled Many Many personnel situations are officials have new jobs jobs or or are are preoccupied 'preoccupied by by uncertainty over whether they they will will have have any any job job As As aa result many individuals and ministriesministries· may ·may be-reluctant be -reluctant to make decisive moves 4 teT Governing authority in in China China has has become become highly highly td decentralized with both ownership ownership of of many many government government assets and enforcement of regulations regulations concentrated concentrated at at the the below This This decentralization decentralization limits limits provincial level and below the effective power of the central central government government to to enforce enforce environmental policies policies 5 f© te - The Chinese central central government g vernment is is generally generally unused to inter-agency cooperation cooperation of of the the type type we we know know in in Washington Ministries tend to to operate operate as as discrete discrete • fiefdoms and don't seek out out inter-agency inter-agency efforts efforts However when mandated by by· higher higher levels levels ministries ministries do do work together 6 tel The Chinese government government is is also also preoccupied preoccupied by by fef this summer's record-breaking floods floods in in southern southern China China and the northernmost province province of of Heilongjiang Heilongjiang CHINESE VIEWS ON CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 7 Most scientists and and some some policy-makers policy-makers 40Most Chinese scientists UNCLASSIFIED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 imase change Though » c imat e Though most most Chines Chinese scientists scientists subscribe to the view that that overall overall effects effects of of climate climate for China China some some have have written written that that change will be negative for as rising rising sea sea levels levels more more intense intense harmful effects such as storms and flooding flooding may be be somewhat somewhat balanced balanced out out by by increased precipitation and and an an extended extended growing growing season season in in the arid north They do do not not however however feel feel that that China China can afford to take action action to to address address climate climate change change yet yet and don't don11 expect to be able able to to take take action action for for the the next next two decades as the country country necessarily necessarily places places primacy primacy on on economic growth Regarding Regarding environmental environmental issues issues most most policy-makers feel feel that that China's China's severe severe water water resource resource problems undersupply contamination contamination flooding flooding demand demand more immediate attention attention than than does does climate climate change change 8 t Q f fG - Chinese scientists' views views of of the the climate climate change change issue reflect this pragmatic pragmatic view view While While recognizing recognizing the the problem they feel feel that that the the targets targets that that Western Western scientists tend to consider consider for for atmospheric atmospheric greenhouse greenhouse gas GHG GHG ’ concentration levels levels e g e g aa doubling doubling of of preindustrial levels to to 550ppm 550ppm are are unrealistically unrealistically low low and would unfairly constrain constrain the the economic economic growth growth of of developing countries countries 9 te fet We've been told told Chinese Chinese ministries ministrie’s have have been been ordered to delay as long as as possible possible any any commitments commitments on on climate change Chinese officials officials have have told told J protect protect that· that China is wa 1 t-1 n-g t-o s-e-e -' waiting to see wnetner whether the D S u s Congress ratifies ratifies the the Kyoto Kyoto Protocol's Protocol will consider consider action action ' commitments before China will I I 81 B1 81 B1 81 B1 said that the officials are are aware aware of of the the division division between between the U S administration and and Congress Congress over over the the issue issue 10 re -ef There are several indications indications that that the the Chinese Chinese increased its its emphasis emphasis on on climate climate government has recently increased change The Climate Change Change Coordination Coordination Group Group CCCG CCCG established by 1995 was was restructured restructured in in June June 1998 1998 See Part Two para 23 23 for for a more a more extended extended discussion discussion of of the CCCG changes changes The chair chair of of the the Group Group was was shifted shifted • from the China Meteorological Meteorological Administration Administration CMA CMA to to the the State Development Planning Planning Commission· Commission' SDPC SDPC The The SDPC SDPC a macroeconomic a macroeconomic coordinating coordinating agency agency directly directly under under the the State Council has much broader broader influence influence than than does does CMA CMA The State Economic and Trade SETC has Trade Commission· Commission• SETC has also also been added to the CCCG These These shifts shifts would would appear appear to to indicate aa further further emphasis emphasis at at high high levels levels of of the the economic implications of climate climate change change action action Another Another indicator may be the request request of of the the Chinese Chinese delegation delegation returning from the June June 1998 1998 climate climate change change talks talks in in Bonn to immediately begin further further study study on on the the Clean Clean Development Mechanism 12 fer The principals of of some some of of the the Chinese Chinese ministries ministries with whom the delegation delegation will will meet meet may may have have had had little little familiarity with· with-the climate change change issue issue experience or familiarity the climate and certainly not with the the international international negotiations negotiations They will however with with the the possible possible exception exception of of the the SETC have subordinates who who have have worked worked on on the the issue issue for for some time Knowledge of the the issue issue does does seem seem to to be be gradually percolating up up to to ministry ministry principals principals UNCLASSIFIED U S Department Department of of State State Case Case No No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc DocNo No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 Bl B1 Bl B1 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00232 F-2006-00252 Doq DOQ No C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 at least guidance to at least one ministry SETC on how to handle US DEL •''s request for aa meeting but have no details on USDEI 's this guidance MOFA will likely appear at the delegation's meetings with other ministries WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE CHINESE 14 te1 fCi The Chinese in defensive posture may wish to elaborate in great detail on the many actions they are taking to reduce GHG emissions These claims some of which indeed are praiseworthy include rapid energy efficiency ·gains over efficiency-gains' over the last two decades development of coal-bed methane coal gasification and hydroelectricity energy·sources energy sources ambitious reforestation project plans though current progress is far far below Chinese claims claims The Chinese also emphasize population policy as aa vigorous Chinese effort to ad4ress address climate change and other environmental problems 15 ' 81- Expect complaints about lack of U S funding frG funding for and thus questionable U S commitment to technological cooperation The Ministry of Science and Technology MOST in particular hammers us for for always talking never doing The recent DOE-MOST Energy Efficient Building Demonstration Project agreement has been very well-received by MO ST MOST and they hope for for more 11 such doing doing 11 Also expect negative comparisons with Japan and Norway who are supporting AIJ projects in China both with MOST we believe 16 et COMMENT In this regard there may be some CSfvalue in explaining briefly how the U S system works that most investment is private etc Nevertheless this is unlikely to satisfy the Chinese who perceive the UNFCCC as committing developed countries to providing official assistance for technology transfer End comment 17 teJ Regarding the international negotiations China tO will stress fulfillment of UNFCCC commitments especially the failure of developed countries ·to to adequately provide promised non-commercial technology transfer to developing countries Also China has expressed preference for for AIJ over the CDM with the rationale that there are already rules in place for AIJ whereas the CDM is an unknown entity SUGGESTED STRATEGY FOR DISCUSSIONS 18 tet frh Previous U S -China dialogues on climate on change Previous U S -China dialogues climate change have often featured aa U S opening followed by an extended Chinese monologue occasionally somewhat defensive in tone asserting the numerous actions China is taking to reduce GHG emissions and explaining why China is unable to take on international commitments until it is able to satisfy the basic living and energy energyneeds of its population To head off this monologue which can occupy half the meeting and_ and prevent more productive iscussion discussion we may wish to acknowledge up C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00252 Doc No C17901162 UN CLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No f-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc No C17901162 Date 04 11 2014 that these have not always been•fully been fully recognized in the international arena Suggest that continued measures to slow the growth rate of emissions coupled with greater publicity can can improve the international community's ■ perception of China's position on climate change and other environmental issues fH te-1 At the same time point out th t· that there are opportunities which China has not taken to improve the environment and the public health of its people and point out that the global efforts to address climate change create opportunities for China to do this without sacrificing its economic growth 19 20 te1 Emphasize the relationship of actions to address climate change to other environmental problems policies air quality energy efficiency energy demand and resource utilization Even discuss the ability of carbon sink reforestation 'projects projects to control oil soil erosion which is contributing to China's floods 21 f G Emphasize the potential economic benefits for China of the CDM and emissions trading These flexibility mechanisms could for example provide incentives for reforestation projects which would reduce the soil erosion which has contributed to the 1998 severe floods · floods 22 Discuss our actions at home to address climate change The Chinese will be aware however of Congressional opposition to climate change action In this regard we should educate them on why Congress feels this way and point out that this is to some extent aa misperception partly because China and other developing countries have not publicized their actions broadly enough Suggest that if China takes aa more publicly and internationally proactive stance on limate change and if China and the u U- S can acheve greater cooperation on climate change then ongress will be much more willing to ratify the ommitrnents ommitments in the Kyoto Protocol PART TWO ClimateChange Coordination Group 23 te Following is aa sumary·of sumary of the June 1998 changes made in the centrl government's inter-ministry Climate Change Coorinating Group previously reported in Beijing 1441 1441 The new CCCG met for the first time in late July -- The State Development Planning Commision· Commision SDPC has replaced th China Meteorological Administration CMA as the Chair of the Group and the coordination office has been moved to the SDPC -- The State Economic and Trade Commission has been added to the Goup Otherwise the membership is unchanged NOTE SETC's Division of International Cooperation rejected our original request for aa meeting with the delegation perhaps because they were unaware that SETC continuing to pursue is now a a member of the CCCG We are ontinuing aa meeting with SETC SETC but with difficulty END NOTE UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00252 Doc No C17901162 Date 04 11 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-002 2 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901'162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 of the ·-- Zeng Peiyan Chair of the SDPC is Director or Group· Group First Deputy Director is SDPC Vice Minister Liu Jiang There are four Second Deputy Directors VM Deng Nan of MOST an SETC Vice Chair aa CMA Vice ·Administrator Administrator and aa SEPA Vice Administrator four main -- The Climate Cl mate Change Coordination Group has four focus groups listed below along with their lead agenc i es agencies A B C D Science of Climate Change led by CMA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Impacts and Adapt ation Adaptation led by MOST and SEPA Economic Impacts led by SDPC and SET SETC ' International Negotiations Group led by MOFA and MOST ice in the -- The coordinating group will have an off office 1 SDPC s Department of Regional Economic Development SDPC’s Other ministries including MOST will also be represented in that office ·PART INDIVIDUAL AGENCIES ROLES KEY INDIVIDUALS PART THREE AND POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCI 24 €9 t-e1 1 ·Bl B1 Following is aa Following iscussion oof tthe e ro e oof eac discussion role each agency with respect to climate change key individuals in the agency and possible foci for approaching the discussion with each agency B1 B1 ___ - - -- - -7 Ministry of Science and Technology MOST ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE ·Has Has primary responsibility for CDM research Also involved in the international negotiations subcommittee Involved with the U S Country Studies Program and affiliated with Tsinghua University's University’s Global Climate Change Institute POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCUS CDM sinks expectations for COP-4 DOE-MOST energy efficient building project joint research opportunities KEY INDIVIDUALS Vice Minister Madame Deng Nan -- Has responsibility for for MOST's MOST’s climate change activities Quite fluent fluent on the issue and familiar with the international negotiations B1 State Environmental Protection Administration SEPA SEPA ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE Co-leader of CCCG Impacts and Adaptation sub-committee Operates aa Climate Change Research Institute POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCUS UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00252 F-2006-00252 Doc Doc No No C17901162 C17901162 Date Date 04 11 2014 04 11 2014 UNtLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00252 Doc No C17901162 Date 04 11 2014 UNCLASSIFIED JJ S • goals measures especially air quality and climate change action sinks joint research KEY INDIVIDUALS involved ·Also Also Administrator Xie Zhenhua -- Likes to get involved will likely attend mid-September Mansfield Retreat in Montana followed by aa visit to Washington Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOFA ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE International negotiations Attempts to control foreign May circulate guidance policy aspects of climate change to other ministries for these meetings POSSIBLE DISCUSSION DISCUSSIQN FOCUS Expectations for COP-4 and beyond KEY INDIVIDUALS Liu Zhenmin climate change negotiator State Development and Planning Commission SDPC ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE New coordinator of the CCCG POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCUS CDM investment and technology potential emissions trading KEY INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUALS Chair Zeng Peiyan -- Vice Chair Liu Jiang met with Janet Yelleri Yellerik Also Vice Chair of the CCCG I 81 B1 1 4 0 1 4 D 81 B1 1 4 0 1 4 D State Economic and Trade Commission SETC SETC ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE New to the CCCG POSSIBLE DISCUSSION POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCUS CDM investment and technology potential emissions ·•- trading KEY INDIVIDUALS Uncertain China Meteorological Administration CMA CMA ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE Formerly the chair of CCCG still co-chairs the CCCG science committee active in IPCC POSSIBLE DISCUSSION FOCUS Expectations for COP-4 IPCC ·sinks sinks climate science KEY INDIVIDUALS Administrator Wen Kegang Professor Ding Yihui Director of National Climate Center Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II Chair of CCCG's CCCG's Science sub-committee SASSER CO NF±BISWTIM GQNFI-DENTIAL “PAGE 01 BEIJIN 14731 00 OF 05 241208Z UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2006-00252 Doc No C17901162 Date 04 11 2014