FED AL BUREAU OF SUBJECT STABILITY OF PRESIDENT 2 THE CHILEAN GOVERNMENT'S PAGE 23JUN INVESTIGATION STRATEGY CASE AND PINOCHET AUGUSTO CIA 00 1 P TB DEPARTMENT OF STATE CHILEAN GOVERNMENT IMPACT OF CASE ON OF I C H E T 'S PRESENT STRATEGY WITH- RtSI'tt7 TO THt LtTELIER CASE CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS PROTECT GENERAL R MANUEL S I FROM C 0 R AD SUCCESSFUL PROSECUTION IN THE MURDER OF LETELIER SINCE PINOCHET'S POLITICAL SURVIVAL IS DEPENDENT UPON CONTRERAS' FATE GOVERNMENT BE STONEWALL ANY FURTHER REQUESTS FROM THE U THAT WOULD SERVE TO BUILD A CASE AGAINST CONTRERAS AND OTHER CHILEANS S S DeelassiTied and Approved for Release July 2000 ET SE T 23 PAGE LOBBY 002 JUN 78 CIA « SUPREME COURT JUSTICES TO INSURE THAT REQUESTS FOR EXTRADITION OF CHILEAN CITIZENS FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED INDICTMENTS ARE REJECTED' D CONTINUE TO EXPLDIT CHILEAN NATIONALISM WITH A COVERT ACTION CAMPAIGN TD PORTRAY THE LETELIER INVESTIGATION AS BEING ANOTHER PRETEXT FOR DESTABILIZING THE POLITICALLY MOTIVATED C PINOCHET E I-' G TO THE REGIME E I CONTINUE IMPROVE' i ALLOWING THE THE GOC VISIT OF iMAGE THE ABROAD UN 3 THE EVOLUTION DF PINOCHET'S STRATEGY FROM INITIAL GRUDGING COOPERATION TO ITS PRESENT HARDLINE POSTURE APPEARS TO BEiBASED ON THE FOLLOWING FA AN 'SSUMPTIO A MICHAEL ING CONFE SION TO T 0 W N L E Y IS DEVA GENERAL HECTOR 70 R THE MILITARY PROSECUTOR Z C Og IN MID APRIL P'UT THE ONUS FOR THE CRIME DIRECTLY AFTER HIS EXPULSI THE U ' DN THE DIRECTORAT ATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DINA AND ITS DIRECTOR p GENERAL CONTRERAS WHEN OROZCO CONFRONTED CONTRERAS UPON HIS RETURN THE LATTER ADMITTED HIS CULPABILITY' BUT THREATENED TD CLAIM THAT HE WAS ACTING ON ORDERS FROM PINOCHET IN THE EVENT HE WERE PROSECUTED CDNTRERAS CLAIMED THAT HE HAO SAFELY SECRETED DDCU IENTATION TO SUPPORT HIS CLAIM THIS BLACKMAIL THREAT WORKED OROZCO WAS OBVIOUSL'Y GIVEN ORDERS BY PINOCHET TO ACCEPT CONTRERAS ' OVER STORY THAT HE HAD SENT TOWNLEY AND CAPTAIN ARMANDO JF E R N A N D E Z L'ARIOS TO THE U S MERELY TO INVESTIGATE ORLANDO N L Y HAD AND THA L E T E LI I E R 'S ACTIVITIES OBVIOUSLY EXCEEDED HIS INSTRUCTIONS A SUBSEQU ACK EFFORT BY THE GOC TO PERSUADE LT CDLONEL PEDRO v'E S P I N FORMER g DINA CHIEF OF' OPERATIONS TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ASSASSINA TION 'ORDER W'AS THWARTED BY CDNTRERAS WITH THE SAME BLACKMAIL HREAT THUS' THE COVERUP BEGAN' B PINOCHETiACTING THROUGH LEGAL ADVISOR HUGO R 0 S E N D E HAS MANIPULATED THE SUPREME COURT JUDGES AND NOW IS SATISFIED THAT TH OURT WILL REJECT THE EXTRADITIDN OF ANY CHILEANS S LIBERALIZING MEASURES RIGHTS COMMISSION WITH HUMAN INDICTED C PINOCHE SD BEE CDNV NCED BY HIS LEGAL ADVISORS H THERE IS PROBABLY INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO CONVICT CONTRERAS ET AL IN CHILEAN COURTS' SINCE THE TESTIMDNY OF ONE WITNESS TOWNLEY WITHOUT INDEPENDENT CORROBORATION CARRIES LITTLE WEIGHT HOWEVERr P R 0 P P E R THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AUSA EUGENE MAY HAVE SDME CARDS UP HIS SLEEVE THAT HE HAS NOT SHOWN HENCE THE THAT SECRET SE T 2 PAGE REPEATED CHILEAN 003 JUN 78 REQUESTS TO PROPPER FOR MDRE EVIDENCE TO ANTI NATIONALISM HAS FALLEN ON D UPS RECEPTIVE EARS THE DENOUNCEMENT OF THE LETELIER CASE HAS TAKEN PLACE AMID RENEWED IN7ERNATIONAL EXPLOITATION OF THE DISAPPEAREDS IN CHILE PRESSURE FROM ARGENTINA AND BOLIVIAN ULTIMATUMS FROM THE AFL CIO A MARITIME BOYCOTT AND AN INCIDENT AGAINST THE CHILEAN TRAINING SHIP ESMERALDA IN SAN FRANCISCO' ATTACKS BY 'THE U S MEDIA AND CDNGRESSMENe ETC THUS IT IS EASY FOR PINOCHET S SUPPOR7ERS A MAJORITY OF THE POPULACE TO BELIEVE THAT ALL THIS IS A TO CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED PLOT BY THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION TOPPLE PINOCHET IN THISCONTEXT 7HE 10 JUNE EDITORIAL IN THE WASHINGTON POST CALLING FOR PINOCHET TO RESIGN AND TURN THE GO ERNMENT OVER TO THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS PROVED TO BE A BONANZA FOR PINOCHET STONEWALLING TACTICS HAS E PINOCHET'S RESORT TO HARDLINE' ALSO CAL IED DOWN THE ARMY WHICH IS g AFTER ALLI HIS KEY SUPPORT BASE WHEN THE CASE FIRST STARTED TO BREAK OPEN PINOCHET'S HASTY RETIREMENT OF CONTRERAS IN MARCH AND THE PRECIPITOUS EXPULSION OF TOWNLEY IN EARLY APRIL UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE U INDICATED EITHER GUILT DR WEAKNESS TO ARMY OFFICERS' AND HIS SERIES OF LIBERALIZING MEASURES RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS GENERaL AMNESTY' REPLACEMENT DF SOME MILITARY CABINET ME lBERS BY CIVILIANS' ETC ADDED TO THE IMPRESSION OF A DESPERATE PRESIDENT WHEN AUSA PROFFER RETURNED TO SANTIAGO IN LATE MAY PRECEDED BY PRESS REPORTS FRD WASHINGTON THAT HE WAS COMING TO TAKE CONTRERAS TO THE U ST THIS FURTHER ALARMED TRADITIONALLY PROUD ARMY OFFICERS ALREADY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CAVAL IER TREATMENT BEING GIVEN TO SEVERAL ACTIVE DUTY ARMY SUSPECTS' IT 2W S AT THAT POINT THAT PINOCHET DIRECTED GENERAL' RENE MINISTER SECRETARY V I D A L ' GENERAL OF GOVERNMENT PROPAGANDA LAUNCH 'A NATIONALISTIC CAMPAIGNS ALSO PINOCHET ASSURED THE GENERALS THAT HE WOULD THREAT PROTECT THE ARMY'S INTEGRITY AND THE GROWING THIS CAMPAIGN FROM ARGENTINA AS PERCEIVED BY THE MILITARY HAVE SERVED TO MAKE THEM CLOSE RANKS BEHIND PINOC'HET FOR THE TIME BEINGS AND SPECULA TION AS TO PINOCHET'S SUCCESSOR HAS DISSIPATED PINOCHET ALSO TOOK TO THE HUSTINGS THIS MONT'H TO SHORE UP HIS SUPPORT DURING A HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL VISIT TO THE SOUTH' HE USED THE DCCASION TO MOCK RUMORS THAT HE WAS STEPPING DOWN AND TO VOW THAT HE WAS REMAINING IN OFFICE UNTIL HIS NEW INSTITUTIONALITY PROGRAM COMPLETED THE APPEAL S i ''70 F IS SENT 2 PAGE 004 JUN 78 CIA 4 CONCLUSIONS ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CHILEANS WOULD NOT COUNTENANCE PROVER CHARGES THAT THEIR GOVERNMENT INSTIGATED THE MURDER OF LETELIERi THE SHOCK IMPACT OF THE EVIDENCE HAS LARGELY BEEN DISSIPATED BY THE MANNER IN WHICH IT HAS DRIBBLED DUD PINOCHET NOW HAS A STRONG NATIONALISTIC DEFENSE GOING FOR HIM AND HE CAN PROBABLY SURVIVE INDICTMENTS AGAINST CONTRERAS ANO COMPANY THAT DO NOT LEAD TO CONVICTION MUCH WILL DEPEND IN CHILEAN COURTS ON WORLD REACTIONSt IF HIS REGIME IS CONVICTED BY RESPECTED IF TO SERIOUS REPRISALS DOWNGRADING OR BREAKING RELATIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCIAL BOYCOTTS' THEN PINOCHET'S DEPARTURE WOULD ONLY BE A QUESTION OF TIME RESPONSIBLE CHILEANS ARE ALRE'ADY CONCERNED ABDUT CHILE'S ISOLt4TIONT THE FERVOR CANNOT SUBSTITUTE PERMANENTLY FOR COLD NATIONALISTIC REALITIES' AND THE MILITARY REALIZE THAT CHILE WOULD BE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO ATTACKS FROM EITHER ARGENTINA PERU OR BOTH IF PINOCHET DOES FALLV IT IS LIKELY THAT ANDTHER ARMY GENERAL WITH ILAR IDEOLOGY HOULD SUCCEED HIM HOWEVERS THE TRANSITION PROCESS TD CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCELERATED IF THE USG wERE DEEMED RESPONSIBLE FOR PINOCHET'S DOWNFALLS U S THIS LEADS AND PARTICULARLY AND WESTERN EUROPE' SUCH AS BE' STRAINED SOME TIME OPINION WORLD BY THE SI REL'ATIONS 5 WOULD FOR INFORMATIDN WAS MADE AVAILABLE TO THE lAMBASSADOR FULLY CONCURRED WITH THE APPRAISAL IT IS REQUESTED THAT THE FBI INFORM MRS EUGENE PROPPERi ASSISTANT UNITED STATES ATTORNE'Y DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA OF THIS APPRAISAL AND RESTRICTIONS ON ITS USE THE FBI REPRESENTATIVE IN BUENOS AIRES IS BEING INFORMED THE IN SANTIAGD ABDVE WHO e END OF MESSAGE S ET