Date

Sep 21, 1981

Description

The heightened Indian concerns about Pakistan discussed in the August "Warning Report" raised enough hackles in the Reagan administration for the CIA to produce a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the possibility of Indian preventive action against Pakistan's nuclear program. While the estimators could not be sure, they believed that Prime Minister Gandhi would take a "wait-and-see" approach as to whether Pakistan 1) was going to test a device and 2) keep producing fissile material for weapons. India would have to decide whether to stage an "answering test" (for which preparatory work had already been undertaken), but also whether to take preventive action before Pakistan had a weapons stockpile.

Israel's use of F-16s to destroy Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in June 1981 and Washington's announcement on 14 September of the F-16 sale to Pakistan made Indian defense officials wonder whether preventive action against nuclear facilities was necessary before Islamabad had the fighter-bombers (for which nuclear-capable versions existed). If India took such action it would have to face the prospect of a "severe" international reaction as well as the possibility that China might intervene on Pakistan's behalf. One alternative for India was to develop a nuclear stockpile superior to Pakistan's. That would take a high-level decision to produce nuclear weapons, while financial, technological, and other considerations might encourage Gandhi to move slowly. Nevertheless, the possibility that India (or even Israel) would take preventive action against the Pakistani nuclear program would be a continuing concern.

Source

FOIA release

Document published in following posting(s):

New Documents Spotlight Reagan-era Tensions over Pakistani Nuclear Program

Apr 27, 2012