CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION SS-00 BOGOTA 03935 01 OF 02 UNCLASSIFIED 111745Z ADS-00 00ow OASY-00 ------------------A5F04A R 111742Z MAR 93 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5933 INFO AMEMBASSY CARACAS AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AMEMBASSY QUITO AMEMBASSY LIMA INFO RELEASED IN PART 131 1 1 4 D LOG-00 1120132 38 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 03935 DEPT PLEASE PASS USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS PM USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA CIA WASHDC DIA WASHDC EXDIS CINCSO AND CINCLANT ALSO FOR POLAD DECL OADR E O 12356 PGOV CO TAGS SUBJECT THE RACE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL ERNESTO SAMPER NOMINATION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL BOGOTA PAGE 02 3766 BOGOTA REF 1 03935 01 OF 02 E114 111745Z CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT ONE OF LIBERAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL SUMMARY 2 PRE-CANDIDATE ERNESTO SAMPER'S CAMPAIGN AIDE'S WEALTHY BUSINESSMAN CESAR VILLEGAS PREDICTS THAT THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF COLOMBIA WILL BE EITHER SAMPER OR AD M-19'S ANTONIO NAVARRO CONSERVATIVE ANDRES PASTRANA WOLFF IS LIKELY TO BE THE KINGMAKER IN THE NEXT ELECTION AND THEREFORE A POWERFUL INDIVIDUAL IN THE NEXT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY JAMES F COOPER DATE CASE ID 20 MAY 2009 200705928 UNCLASSIFIED ADMINISTRATION END SUMMARY UNCLASSIFIED A KEY CAMPAIGN AIDE TO LIBERAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL 3 PRE-CANDIDATE ERNESTO SAMPER CESAR VILLEGAS TOLD POLCOUNS THAT HE HAD NO DOUBTS THAT HIS MAN WOULD TAKE THE CONTEST IS NOT FOR THE HIS PARTY'S NOMINATION NOMINATION -- WE WILL GET THAT -- IT IS FOR THE PRESIDENCY AND THE MAN TO BEAT IS CONSERVATIVE ANDRES I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE NEXT PASTRANA VILLEGAS SAID TWO PRESIDENTS OF COLOMBIA 1994 AND 1998 WILL BE WHAT I DO NOT KNOW IS WHICH OF SAMPER AND PASTRANA THE TWO WILL BE ELECTED IN '94 AND WHICH IN 198 LIKE HUMBERTO DE LA CALLE SAMPER'S CHIEF RIVAL FOR 4 THE LIBERAL PARTY NOMINATION REFTEL VILLEGAS WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE INFLUENCE AD M-19'S ANTONIO NAVARRO COMMENT WOLFF WILL WIELD IN THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION BOGOTA'S POLITICAL SAVANTS ARE IN ACCORD THAT BECAUSE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THREE CANDIDATES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN MAY OF 1994 NONE WILL WIN A CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BOGOTA 03935 01 OF 02 111745Z MAJORITY OF THE VOTES THEREBY NECESSITATING A SECOND-ROUND RUN OFF BETWEEN THE TOP TWO VOTE GETTERS ALL ALSO AGREE THAT THE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE PRESUMABLY PASTRANA AND THE LIBERAL CANDIDATE SAMPER IF YOU ASK VILLEGAS BUT FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE BY NO MEANS DECIDED WILL MAKE IT TO THE SECOND ROUND NAVARRO WOLFF WILL THEN BE IN THE ENVIABLE POSITION OF BEING ABLE TO INFLUENCE HIS FOLLOWERS TO VOTE FOR ONE OR THE OTHER AND NO ONE DOUBTS NAVARRO'S ABILITY TO GUIDE THE SECOND-ROUND VOTE OF HIS FIRST-ROUND SUPPORTERS VILLEGAS ARGUED THAT OF SAMPER AND PASTRANA SAMPER 5 NAVARRO SHOULD WAS CLOSER TO NAVARRO PHILOSOPHICALLY HE DID NOT SAY PRELIMINARY GO WITH US HE SAID NEGOTIATIONS WERE UNDERWAY BUT HE DID SAY HE THOUGHT NAVARRO'S PRICE FOR SUPPORTING SAMPER IN THE SECOND-ROUND WOULD BE THREE MINISTRIES ONE MAJOR HE SAID HEALTH AND MINISTRY AND TWO LESSER ONES WHAT EDUCATION WOULD PROBABLY BE THE LESSER MINISTRIES MAJOR PLUM NAVARRO WILL SEEK HOWEVER REMAINS A MYSTERY VILLEGAS SAID THAT SOMEONE SEEKING NATIONAL 6 RECOGNITION AND A NATIONAL PLATFORM WOULD TRY TO BECOME IF CURRENT FISCAL GENERAL GUSTAVO DE THE NEXT FISCAL UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED GREIFF WERE 45 INSTEAD OF 63 HE WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY BE WE WOULD THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF COLOMBIA VILLEGAS SAID NOTE THAT NAVARRO HOWEVER IS NOT A LAWYER AND THEREFORE IS PERSONALLY INELIGIBLE TO BE FISCAL FURTHER GUSTAVO DE GREIFF'S TERM DOES NOT EXPIRE UNTIL -- THE NEXT PRESIDENT'S SECOND YEAR IN JULY OF 1996 OFFICE SO THIS WOULD NOT BE AN IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 03935 1117452 PAGE 04 THOUGH WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT DE GREIFF WOULD RESIGN IF SAMPER WERE ELECTED FINALLY VYING FOR THE FISCALIA IS CHANCY PRESIDENT CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 BOGOTA 03935 02 OF 02 1117452 ACTION SS-00 OASY-00 ADS-00 00ow ------------------A5F052 R 111742Z MAR 93 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5934 INFO AMEMBASSY CARACAS AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AMEMBASSY QUITO AMEMBASSY LIMA INFO LOG-00 112013Z j38 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 BOGOTA 03935 UNCLASSIFIED B1 DEPT PLEASE PASS USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS PM USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA CIA WASHDC DIA WASHDC UNCLASSIFIED EXDIS CINCSO AND CINCLANT ALSO FOR POLAD E O 12356 DECL OADR PGOV CO TAGS THE RACE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL SUBJECT NOMINATION ERNESTO SAMPER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 03935 PAGE 02 BOGOTA 02 OF 02 111745Z THE FISCAL IS SELECTED BY THE SUPREME COURT FROM A LIST OF THREE PERSONS SUBMITTED TO THE COURT BY THE PRESIDENT AND THE JUSTICES ARE QUITE INDEPENDENT SAMPER PLANS TO RETURN TO COLOMBIA SOMETIME IN 7 APRIL VILLEGAS SAID THOUGH HE WON'T OFFICIALLY BEGIN HIS CAMPAIGN UNTIL LATE SLIMMER IF THE GOC FAILS TO GET PABLO ESCOBAR HOWEVER SAMPER WILL DELAY HIS RETURN IN ORDER TO DISTANCE HIMSELF TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE FROM CURRENT PRESIDENT AND TITULAR HEAD OF THE LIBERAL PARTY CESAR GAVIRIA WHOSE PERSONAL POPULARITY REMAINS QUITE LOW IN LARGE PART BECAUSE OF ESCOBAR 8 VILLEGAS CONFIRMED THAT FORMER PEACE COUNSELLOR HORACIO SERPA WOULD RUN THE SAMPER CAMPAIGN FORMER COLOMBIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UN ENRIQUE PENALOSA WILL BE CAMPAIGN TREASURER VILLEGASf BI I HE SAID HE WAS CAUTIONING SAMPER THAT THE CAMPAIGN HAD TO BE DESIGNED TO AVOID TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE SUCH CHARGES Bl UNCLASSIFIED T TI C e S S WE HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT CONFIDENTIAL D IF ELECTED HE CONFIDENTIAL 03935 PAGE 03 BOGOTA 02 OF 02 111745Z WOULD PURSUE COUNTERNARCOTICS WITH THE SAME ENERGY AND VIGOR THAT GAVIRIA HAS BUSBY CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED B1 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu