21 04 93 UKOR 21-440 To Prime Minister of Ukraine L D Kuchma In response to No 941 2t of 25 03 93 In connection with the decision by the Defense Council of Ukraine of March 15 1993 on immediate measures concerning the implementation of Ukraine's nuclear policy and the discussion in the near future in Verkhovna Rada of issues related to the ratification of the START Treaty and the Lisbon Protocol as well as Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1968 NPT we are sending you an analytical report Possible Consequences of Ukraine Not Joining the NPT The report in particular analyzes the problem of succession of Ukraine to the obligations of the former USSR in regard to the NPT and concludes that as of today Ukraine has only one alternative either accede to the NPT as a non-nuclear state and confirm that it is a state that adheres to its proclaimed intentions and facilitates the strengthening of the nonproliferation regime and international security or despite its earlier declared intention take no decision about the Treaty at this point and effectively remain outside its fold From the MFA's vantage point the most substantial negative consequences of Ukraine not joining the NPT would be the following - strengthening of a tendency toward the destruction of the international regime for the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons - deterioration of relations between Ukraine and the West in political and economic terms - further complications in Ukraine's relations with Russia cessation of regular maintenance of nuclear warheads located on Ukraine's territory which will considerably decrease their security - blocking of international cooperation with Ukraine in the realm of peaceful use of nuclear energy which could lead to a complete halt in the operation of Ukraine's nuclear power plants From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive Dear Leonid Danylovych In MFA's opinion delays in deciding the issue of Ukraine's participation in the NPT could eventually lead to a significant change in the situation surrounding Ukraine The reason for this is that as of now the decision by the Parliament of Ukraine on joining the Treaty will be regarded by the world community as an independent demonstration of the goodwill of our people Based on the abovementioned the MFA thinks that it would be advisable to consider the issue of Ukraine's participation in the NPT in the Verkhovna Rada as part of one package with START-1 and the Lisbon Protocol Attachment the abovementioned on 7 pages Respectfully MINISTER A M ZLENKO From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive But in the not too distant future in case the world community adopts decisive measures similar to the ones that are being employed against Iraq and are being planned against the North Korea pressure on Ukraine will begin to mount A decision by Ukraine to join the Treaty adopted under tensions and all-around pressure will not have such positive effect in the world as it would today