Withdrawal Redaction Sheet George Bush Library Document 'o and T ype 0 I b Minutes Subjectffitle of Document Re Minutes ofNSC Deputies Committee Meeting August 2 1990 FOIA EXEM PTIONS REDACTED 13 pp Record Group Bush Presidential Records Office National Security Council Series Haass Richard N Files Subseries Presidential Meeting Files Date Restriction Class 08 02 90 b I s Document Partially Declassified Copy of Document Folloj By on Lf J j1- WHORM Cat NSC Meeting- August 2 1990 Re Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait L Date Closed OIA SYS Case#' 11 112007 OA 10 Number 1998-0099-F Appeal Case # Re-review Case# CFO 16 I 8-0 19 Appeal Disposition -2 P-5 Review Case # Disposition Date AR Case# MR Case# 2008-0548-MR 554 AR Disposition MR Disposition Released in Part AR Disposition Date MR Disposition Da te 2 21 20 12 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - 44 S C 2204 a l P-1 Nationa l Sec uri ty Classified Informa tio n a l of tb e PRA I I P-2 Relating to the appoin tment to Federal office a 2 of tbe PRA P-3 Release wou ld viola te a Federa l statute a J of the PRA I P-4 Release would disclose trade sec rets or confidential commercial or financial information a 4 of the PRA I P-S Release would disclose con fidential a dvice between the President and his advis 1rs or between such a dvisors a S o f the PRA P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy a 6 of the PRA I C Closed in accordance with restrictions co ntained in donor's deed of I gift Freedom of Information Act - IS li S C SS2 b b l National secu rity classi fied in forma tion b l of the FOIA I b 2 Release would d isclose in ter nal pe rsonn el rul es and pra ctices of an agency b 2 of th e FO IA b J Release wou ld violate a Fed era l s tatute b J o f th e FOIA b 4 Release wou ld d isclose trade secr ets or confidential or fina ncia l informatio n b 4 of the FOIA b 6 Release wou ld cons titute a clearly unwarranted invasion of persona l privacy b 6 of the FOIA b 7 Release wo uld disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes b of the FOIAI b 8 Release wou ld disclose information concerning the regulation of financ ial instituti ons b 8 of the FOIA I b 9 Release wo uld disclose geological or geophysical information NATJONAL SECURITY COUNCIL M CRB' P WASHINGTON D C 20506 LIMITED ACCESS Meeting of the DATE LOCATION TIME SUBJECT NSC Deputy Committee Meeting August 2 1990 Cabinet Room 8 05 - 9 30 a m Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait $ PARTICIPANTS WHITE HOUSE The President The Vice President Brent Scowcroft John Sununu Boyden Gray Roman Popaduik Andy Card JUSTICE Richard Thornburgh William Barr Colin Powell David Jeremiah Norman Schwarzkopf Burwell Barr OVP The Vice President Carnes Lord CIA William Webster Richard Kerr Richard Haass Sandra Charles ENERGY James Watkins John East John Tuck STATE Robert Kirnrnitt John Kelly Thomas Pickering QMa Richard Darman Treasury Nicholas Brady John Robson DOD Richard Cheney Paul Wolfowitz Minutes The President opened with a statement for the press condemning the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait that was published by the White House Press Secretary He also responded to a series of questions U SECRB'i' Declassify on OADR DECLASSIFIED IN PART PER E O 13526 Joo -os4 - MfZ Sc M'J 1 1a_ BB€RB 2 The President First I want to thank you for coming And to thank the NSC State DoD and CIA for the long and sleepless hours I thought we should get together to figure out what has happened and the implications Brent will open and then we'll have an intelligence update $ General Scowcroft It would be most useful if at the outset we could have a summary of the situation from Bill Webster then what we have done diplomatically from Bob Kimmitt and from Nick Brady on the economic actions we ' ve taken Then we will turn to an analysis of our objectives outline a strategy and discuss further choices t DCI Webster There were seven divisions on the border yesterday morning Since the attack which occurred between 6 00 pm and 1 00 am our time four divisions were moved One came down the road from the western quarter Several planes have landed since 1 00 am at the airport They are also getting support from the sea Their first announcement was that the government had fallen The second announcement was that there had been a coup and that a group had requested the Iraqi government's help 0 The President That got a laugh at the UN When they were asked to identify the people they couldn't and everyone laughed DCI Webster They have moved This is a major intervention Governor Sununu Was there any violence toward the royal family DCI Webster No There was some fighting The U S Embassy is okay I imagine they are able to hear artillery firing from where they are ¢ Governor Sununu Is the Kuwaiti royal family anywhere around the world being harassed ocr Webster There are no reports of that There are 20 000 Kuwaiti troops and some other Arab forces At the Arab League they have passed a resolution of condemnation There was no call for armed action When the fighting was reported Moscow said nothing officially NATO and Japan have condemned the invasion and called for Iraq's withdrawal The stock market in Tokyo is down oil prices are increasing The British have declared this a grave threat to regional peace It appears there was no military objective but Kuwait SSGRB SSCR£'f 3 Governor Sununu per Webster Any gold assets inside Kuwait We don't know J U Mr Kimmitt We made a statement on July 18 basically reaffirming our commitments in the Persian Gulf We defined our principle interests as protecting freedom of navigation the free flow of oil a strong commitment to the individual and collective self-defense of our friends Since then we have been in close contact with Kuwait the UAE and Saudi Arabia After the Jeddah talks we issued a statement on sovereignty and the need for a peaceful resolution It went out at midday We sent a cable to our allies asking them to weigh in to get Iraq to reverse its military deployments and had contacted the British and French about their military deployments In the post invasion period the White House issued a statement at Kuwait's request A second longer one was issued to answer questions The Iraqi Ambassador was called in He didn't know anything beyond what Tariq Aziz had said -- that their government had been asked to respond to a coup by a new government We have briefed Foley Michel Mitchell and Dole and answered questions At the UN the Security Council in a strong manner passed a resolution condemning Iraq' s invasion and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Iraqi forces It passed 14 to nothing with Yemen abstaining JZ' Mr Haass Reportedly they were unable to vote because didn't have any instructions The President neighbor Jt That could be serious with Saudi Arabia as their Mr Kimmitt Our diplomatic posts have been contacted Bonn Paris the EC and the Italians are already working with us We have sent special instructions to Cairo for the Islamic foreign ministers ' meeting at the ore They are convening an Arab League meeting The President Is any country supporting Iraq U Mr Kimmitt None China and Yemen hesitated at first but China came around and Yemen abstained because they had no instructions After you signed the executive order on sanctions and the economic freeze we sent a cable asking others to do the same thing Treasury is also working its network on an assets freeze There was a British cabinet meeting at 0700 our time to SSCR Ecp SBCRE'i' 4 consider what to do there are no results yet Some are skeptical about whether to go along It was the same thing with Libya and Iran We also have asked for economic sanctions on arms supplies from the Soviets France Italy and China Baker and Shevardnadze will be talking on this It remains to be seen whether supplies will be cut a lot though Lastly there is no report of any US citizen hurt or killed There are 3 800 Americans in Kuwait and 270 Embassy staff and 500 Americans in Baghdad with 42 Embassy officers $ The President What have been I ran and Israel's reactions Mr Kelly There has been media reporting but no editorial comment U Secretary Cheney Arens is saying I told you so Mr Kerr Iraq was sending a delegation to Iran delayed R That has been Secretary Brady The President signed two executive orders One prevents i mports and exports The other prevents other transactions and freezes Kuwaiti assets The G- 7 countries have been contacted The freeze is being implemented by the Fed in New York Instructions have been transmitted General Scowc roft Will others follow U Mr Robson Responses have been wobbly so far figure it out We have to Secretary Brady If you marry Iraq ' s military might with the money it gets daily the combination o f economic with milita ry power is the principal thing to think about Without their oil they don't have a source for funds If they are able to sell Kuwaiti oi l then it is a problem % Mr Kelly We can ask Saudi Arabia UAE and others to up production $ Secretary Brady A shortage of oil won't matter The Pres ident Would there be a shortage lot already proven or produced $' There ' s a hell of a Governor Sununu It won ' t work unless there is a boycott of both Kuwait and Iraq with preference to others U Secretary Brady Japan gets 98 percent of its imports from there They need it for their whole economy every day The idea would be to shut it off but add to supply This wi ll affect the money Iraq wil l have Like stopping the Soviet pipeline Even so Iraq has potential economic power SBCRD'f SECRET 5 Governor Sununu That's why it is important to freeze assets in London and New York to protect against an event like this Why not ask the UK and signal to the other Arabs that integrity of Kuwait depends on this in the face of an illegitimate government in Kuwait This is inconsistent We should send a message to the rest to recommend or not on assets Mr Kimmitt In 1979 we froze assets here and in London We had a shoot out with the UK on the extraterritorial reach law Arab countries operate out of US banks The UK picked up the paranoia They were concerned about London as a banking center with the reunification of Germany That would be counterproductive I expect we would get support for a freeze The Bank of England has special procedures on withdrawals Under our system the best way would be don ' t fight it t Mr Robson Bank $ We will get on the Finance Minister and Central Secretary Cheney On Nick's point if economic and political sanctions only are in effect Iraq could become a major oil power overnight The rest of the world badly needs oil They have little interest in poor Kuwait It may be difficult to organize a good package of economic sanctions U General Scowcroft Let's hear about our military posture Secretary Cheney The INDEPENDENCE is enroute from Diego Garcia to the North Arabian Sea It has been accelerated and should be there in four days There are 7 ships in the Persian Gulf with the Middle East Force There are tankers in the UAE 2 KC13Ss 2KClOs were sent to Diego Garcia It may be necessary to use them with carrier air in the northern Gulf U General Powell There are also 2 KC13Ss in Diego Garcia They are on standby We are ready for a rapid TACAIR deployment for Saudi Arabia if they agree As to possible future options I will let the CINC brief you j Mr East The oil output from Iraq and Kuwait is 4 8 million barrels per day They have a capacity of 6 2 million So they have plenty of overproduction capacity 2 million barrels a day could come off worldwide production and not affect the inventory If you remove Iraq and Kuwait you would want to keep worldwide production constant There is 3 3 million barrels excess capacity in Saudi Arabia that they are not using And there is the pipeline from Saudi Arabia and Turkey to Iraq Most of Kuwait's oil goes through the Gulf There is an interesting opportunity Saudi Arabia could come up to full capacity to make up the 1 6-1 7 going through Turkey We should consider ·discussing this with them The market is skittish Oil is SDCRE T SBCRE'i' 6 already up $3 to $23 a barrel The market response won't stay We need to move to individual stability in sources of supply If we close the pipelines it would bring down worldwide consumption $ General Scowcroft It would be a significant event if the US were to say that this small fracas is of little concern That signal would send shock waves throughout the Middle East including Israel and Iran This has great value to the US position and oil in the Middle East Unfortunately we don ' t have the option to be inactive in reversing this The President No one here would disagree U Mr Darman In the longer term Iraq could hold many governments hostage with its military and economic potential There is some evidence of how changes in the Persian Gulf and Middle East will affect the long term picture One standard point we don't have is how far we're prepared to go We have approved a DoD role using military force and capability But there is a distinction between what to do to defend Saudi Arabia and to liberate Kuwait It is vital that our response be firm We need to show leadership otherwise there will be longer term consequences This is akin to the Persian Gulf conflict when we supported Iraq It's the same principle Our commitment was not as great during the Iran - Iraq war but it was significant in protecting the area $ Secretary Cheney The military significance is different un General Powell The combination of air and land operations shows the effectiveness of Iraqi military In hours we saw a different color of Iraqi military than now On defending Saudi Arabia and liberating Kuwait there should be a great national interest in this For several weeks the CINC and the JCS have prepared military options should the need arise Tier one is a single surgical strike into Iraq to respond directly to Iraqi action beyond a full scale invasion of the whole country and tier two a much more significant involvement of US forces to defend Saudi Arabia which puts forces in place if you want to consider military options to liberate Kuwait % General Scowcroft There is no difference on US interests · There are three categories military economic with the US in the lead and diplomatic with the international community The US should not be out in front The question is what can we do General Powell The CINC will discuss Tier one and how fast we can move on Tier 2 SSGRE'i' SDCBQ'f 7 General Schwarzkopf We have seven combatants in the Gulf the LASALLE is in Bahrain They presently are arranged against an attack in the south Three are on a high state of alert and in a defensive posture Two US flag tankers are underway The ships in the Gulf have 5 inch guns and Tomahawks With the five inchers in four hours they could target Al Bakr oil terminal There are AHIP helicopters with HELLFIRE missiles that also can target their oil terminals The TOMAHAWK gives you more capability to hit more targets like their ground forces and chemical weapons and missiles They can also hit economic targets They are limited however and they need ground imaging to program We don't have good data for that It would take 10 days to examine the TOMAHAWK options to include targets from the south all the way to Baghdad $ The carrier battle group has hit a storm with 16 foot seas but it should be on station on the seventh It has limited strike options with 14 aircraft you could have two strikes surged to three per day The maximum options would be to have 31 with 2 strikes per day Their targets would be military targets in the south because of the distance to the carrier The President I understand we don't bring it into the Gulf because of its vulnerability n General Schwarzkopf would The President $ If the Strait of Hormuz were closed we The Strait could be closed by Iraq or by Iran General Schwarzkopf By anyone sinking a ship We will add B52 capability with the carrier for protection The BS2s could go in Cairo West or Diego Garcia which would require UK permission or Guam which we could do unilaterally There would be 3 B52s Tankage would be a problem without regular base access We have a wide range of options for targets military troops and economic The B52s could engage in a stand off attack with cruise missiles targeting Baghdad We could do all this unilaterally We have a TACAIR package on standby In 3 days we could deploy F-15s and F-16s The F-15s would be on alert in Saudi Arabia to protect Saudi Arabia We could launch a strike into Kuwait with them Host nation support would be needed to execute this option They would have the same targets General Scowcroft Governor Sununu The Saudis have said no to TACAIR % Where would they go e General Schwarzkopf Dhahran Air Force base We have an op plan on the books that we have rehearsed It was devised to protect GECRE'f SBOfl E'f 8 the Saudi oilfields It acknowledges that if Iraq launched a full scale attack there wou l d not be enough force to defend Kuwait Kuwait woul d be lost under this p l an It calls for a Marine Expeditionary Force a regul ar landing team four army divisions including rangers and special forces and TACAIR on the southern border Iraq has two weaknesses a highly centralized leadership so we need to knock out their headquarters and Iraq has never fought over l ong distances They had short supply lines with Iran There may be an inability to support long lines We would need to hit their command and contro l and supply lines We are confident if these forces were introduced we coul d stop an Iraqi attack into Saudi Arabia We would need strategic lift and time to deploy If we decided to attack then it would be more difficult and we would need more forces There are one million Iraqi troops We would need more time to build a force to attack Iraq It would require 20 TACAIR squadrons B52s at either Cairo West or Diego Garcia and a carrier battle group in the Red Sea North Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden $ General Scowcroft And it would take nineteen days to deploy General Schwarzkopf It would take 20 days to move with partial mobility We would need more advan ce warning than we presently have In the case of NEO evacuation in a permissive environment they could drive out or take air charter s In an uncertain environment they could use cars MAC flights We have five he l os to get the 75 last peopl e to the ships there In an uncertain and worsening environment we would need to insert troops to secure an airfield and to open evacuation routes $ The Pres ident this ¢ You have obvious l y done a lot of thinking on General Scowcroft Let's step back The most significant option economically is oil Iraq is very dependent on oil for income There a r e some things we can do shut off the two pipe l ines tel l tankers going into Kuwait to stop-- in theo r y i t ' s easy but in practice it will be difficult -- and do anything useful to get the Turks and the Saudis to shut down the pipeline We should mount an embargo of Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil purchases Clearly this would be the most damaging one - fourth of US consumption is f r om Iraq $ Mr East World oil is fungible It would be made up on the market Japan gets oil from UAE and Kuwait $ The President SSCBB'f Who buys Iraqi oil SBCM'f 9 Mr East Europe and the Far East import 610 000 barrels a day Saudi Arabia could make this up Production could go up 2 million barrels with Saudi excess We could also declare an emergency and use the SPR This would send a signal Mr Parman Whoever buys it today there will be new middle men to get it into the market $ The President That's why closing the pipeline is important $ Mr Parman If you shut it off physically it might work Otherwise it won't $ Secretary Brady We haven't analyzed this much how the operation works who sells and how $ Secretary Chenev The question is whether it makes sense for us to interfere in the oil flow General Scowcroft But there is this threat t The President I agree Nick should do an analysis on market consumption I also agree with Dick If we don't cut it off it will be sold on the spot market $ Secretary Watkins One half of their oil goes through Turkey $ The President We also need an analysis of Iran's role There is hatred between them I can't believe Iran won't look to gain from this What about Iran 1 Mr Kimmitt There has been a rapprochment but it has been more on the economic side From the intelligence we should be able to find out Also there was a message from Iraq to Iran $ The President If Iran and Iraq joined their militaries we would have a bigger problem This maybe an opportunity for us to do better $ Mr Kimmitt Prince Turki called on behalf of King Fahd He supports economic sanctions focusing on diplomacy in the Middle East and helping the Asians get oil to them Z The President What about chapter 7 sanctions Ambassador Pickering We are ready to lead in to chapter 7 sanctions We are prepared to do battle but we should have an easier time to bring in China and the Soviets It will be a hard fight We need more than votes We need to see what Iraq does We need to expend a lot in capitals The way open to sanctions is here We need to get an international reaction $ SSCBB'f SECRQ'f · 10 The President We need to underpin chapter 7 International sanctions will give us security cover They will give some spine to Saudi Arabia and others to take difficult actions like closing the pipeline $ Mr Kimmitt The Arabs have been disappointing The more they shrink they tougher it will be for us We need calls to Fahd and Mubarak telling them to step up to the plate They need to do so because it is in their interest Also a message to the Amir to give visibility to the legitimate government We don't recognize the new puppet entity We also should go to the Europeans Asians and others but our focus should be on the Arabs $ Secretary Brady I was thinking about the balance of power in the Middle East They give thirty million dollars a day to their military machine Why was Iraq after Kuwait If Iraq's military was strong plus their money supply what changed Could they repeat this tomorrow Mr Kimrnitt In the Persian Gulf NSD 26 signed last year the Iraqi threat was not that dramatic We need to accelerate a review of that Z Governor Sununu annexing Kuwait What about the scenario of Iraq staying and Is that an option t$' Secretary Brady Middle East $ Iraq strategically wants to add the rest of Mr Darman They have lots of options but not enough to decide their objectives At a minimum this show is symbolic At most this sounds like a symbolic response which would not have much effect There also needs to be a distinction -- to defend Saudi Arabia and liberate Kuwait There is a chance to defend Saudi Arabia if we do all that's possible On liberating Kuwait I sense it's not viable Therefore we would need an intermediate option if we can't liberate Kuwait one to limit Iraqi power with an annexed Kuwait If so then we can affect Iraq's short term actions for example if Saudi Arabia is willing to increase production in the short term then Iraq would see prices drop 1 Governor Sununu Saudi Arabia should not only shut off the pipeline but displace Iraq's oil with theirs $ Mr Kimmitt We have looked at a NEO evacuation for Kuwait We have Baghdad numbers but not for all our citizens There is a plan to remove officers and unofficial Americans There is the possibility of a commercial evacuation from Baghdad and Kuwait We will need to work with the military if things worsen We · SSQRB SEORB'P 11 looked at breaking relations but decided not to at this point The safety of U S citizens is important and we need someone in Baghdad and here to deal with and to protect Americans there and in Kuwait For now we should focus on economic sanctions and consider these steps later $ Secreta-ry Brady What has Israel said ¢ Mr Kimroitt Defense Minister Arens said Israel wants to sit and talk and provide assistance We have urged restraint on the military option The Vice President Arens is coy Israel is prepared to defend itself but it won't attack Israeli forces are tough But this is an international responsibility it is not Israel's problem fi The President something $ I wonder about world opinion if they did Attorney General allies $ There would be an air of indifference from our Secretary Cheney The question is what are Iraq's military options Their pipelines are inside We have friends who depend on fungable oil Iraq could interfere with Saudi oil to the United States by moving into Saudi Arabia If they screw with the oil supply what then $ General Scowcroft We should look at the embassy and the pipeline question Also the Deputies Committee recommended other economic sanctions There are no military sales or credits It is not really meaningful but takes care of 3 congressional bills that are in force $ The President On the mention of economic sanctions we should tell Congress now to pass a resolution putting conditions on Iraq By executive order we should move on what ever there is and suspend it all We can do that unilaterally without other countries now Otherwise we'll get stuff from the Hill so counter productive that we can't live with it They also should pass a resolution commending the UN and approving what the Administration has done V Mr Kirnrnitt It's still highly likely they are looking to keep sanctions on the Farm Bill I still see them doing this even with your action I agree we want the White House and the Executive out front in command and telling Congress You should call the leaders The Vice President relations i 9EOFliJ'P They could force a break in diplomatic SSCRfiT 12 The President We would tell them we have us people there working in diplomatic channels and that would be counterproductive now They could put it i n but not in a binding resolution Governor Sununu You might need to call Foley from your plane Mr Gray Subsidiaries may be a hole irritating foreign government j U There is a question of The President We need to get a remedy on that our allies Let ' s talk to General Scowcroft There are a n umber of calls for you to make Bill you need to look at covert action against Saddam Mr Kimmitt What about a presidential message to Saddam Hussein -- something asking why the big surprise V The President This group should meet again tomorrow ¢ Mr Parman We need to look at fundamental changes and consider next steps from there The time to do someth ing is now with public support If we wait 12-14 days to take action there wi l l not be as much support The President For the military protecting U S life should be under the heading of military business we need any information we can get We should hone up our options no matter how much force it takes We don ' t want to make statements that force us in until we know the situation We at the outset made a statement While not that profound it could be rendered meaningless if we don ' t do somethin g 1 Secretary Cheney are weak $ Saudi Arabia and others will cut and run if we General Powell Should we put out a strong redline on Saudi Arabia a s a vital interest I think there is no choice The quest i on is do you lay it out to the public The President I agree We must not overlook the other major powers The Soviets so far their reaction has been p ositive We can get them to kick in That is no adventurism but get them to agree to some action US Soviet relations are good but we don ' t want to overlook the Soviet desire for access to warm water p9rts We don ' t want to resurrect that Maybe something positive like a joint statement The next step is in New York with the Soviets UK France and China In New York we should press to put the heat on Saudi Arabia and the others We should pECRij% 13 be careful drawing the redlines we need to and throwing Kuwait to Iraq We need to keep our chin out We also need to decide how long to sit tight on another resolution U Mr Kimmitt We need to go at the Saudis again on a TACAIR deployment Ct The President For the defense budget this incident strengthens the arguments for a quick-response ready force ut Mr Kerr The Arab League is meeting in Cairo President Mubarak and President Zayyid are going to Jeddah today or tomorrow The Amir of Bahrain is abroad and so is Sultan Qaboos The President Let's get sanctions in place before noon make leadership calls from the plane SECRS We'll