__JJL_ I I J I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 25X1 r- • 18 November 1985 Talking Points Colombia M-19 Guerrilla Attack on Colombian Palace of Justice 6 Nov 1985 1 Attention in Colombia has shifted for the moment from the 6 November Palace of Justice episode to the volcanic disaster of last week There has been some criticism of the government for ignoring warning signs of the eruption but on ba-rance we expect public opinion to rally behind Betancur and the relief effort in the short term 25X6 1 25X1 25X1 LOAI 1 SECtcE'f Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 ------ ----Lil-- - l I I i I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 SECRET 25X1 3 We believe Betancur reacted force·fully because of his concern that is past uaciJJation toward the guerrillas may have encouraged the operation and because of his fear tfiat failure to act t6rcefnl would anger military leaders who believe they are being blamed for the increasing violence ry 25X1 4 The short term cost for Betancur has been limited to predictable criticism from the tiberal opposition anff members of the judiciary who believe that Betancur should have attempted to negotiate with the guerrillas s Where does this leave the government and the guerrillas The government probably will pursue a two-track ROlicy increased counterinsurgency operations against the M-19 and continued negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - FARC the largest guerrilla group and the only one willing to continue peace talks This is Betancur's last shred of hope for the highly vaunted peace process he has built his administration around This approach recognizes that the military lacks resources to combat all groups simultaneously and thus aims to eliminate the M-19 and then deal with FARC once its current political ambitions are dashed in the 1986 elections is unlikelv to become official investi ations rii v-1 25X1 We expect more kidnaping and extortion as the guerrillas seek to finance their operations us a1plomatic and business interests are likely targets 2 SECRET Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 ·111 I Ill I I I Sanitized c -PY A proved for Rele se 20 11 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 SECRET 25X1 Back Up Relations between the M-19 and the government have deteriorated since June when the guerrilla group unilaterally abrogated cease-fire accords Since then the M-19 has increased its guerrilla operations in southwestern Colombia and clashes with the military have occurred almost daily Thirty-five guerrillas of the 19th of April M-19 errilla movement occupied the Palace of Justice building in gota on 6 November in an effort to reassert itself as an tive guerrilla organization The M-19 which suffered recent military setbacks reportedly intended only to stage a ublicity-generating operation that would enable it to eriticize the government and promote its cause The Army however launched a massive counterattack which left all of the guerrillas 15 of 24 Supreme Court justices and about 55 others dead Approximately 90 percent of the building was gutte by a fire that burned for most of the 27-hour siege Three American missionaries were released by FARC recently after having been held hostage for several weeks The M-19 however still holds hostage an American oil executive and is demanding a large ransom for his release Vone flt vt1t1 A-s c 1-ed held 4 '1 im1'01ltu - - e o' u1 11 pl' Pd uy pod 3 SECRET Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100040006-2 - n 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91B00874R000100040006-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 08 31 CIA-RDP91B00874R000100040006-2