FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED seun B Ui t' lA L POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject 09 12 2024 03 28 94 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY or BENIGN RESPECT PAGE 01 MOSCOW SUBJECT WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY or BENIGN RESPECT 8427 281232Z MAR 94 SECTION 01 or 15 MOSCOW 8427 1 Page 107 COHf'IB lH'fI M - ENTIRE TEXT INTRODUCTION 2 THE FOLLOWING ESSAY IS SUBMITTED UNDER THE PROVISIONS or DISSENT CHANNEL 5 FAM 212 3C ANO 11 FAM 243 3 THE AUTHOR IS rs-01 E WAYNE MERRY CHIEF or EMBASSY MOSCOW'S INTERNAL POLITICS SECTION THE AUTHOR POSES NO OBJECTION TO DISSEMINATION or THIS ESSAY INCLUDING TO S NIS D P C E S P INR EUR ISCA SUMMARY 3 DEMOCRATIC FORCES IN RUSSIA ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE WE ARE NOT HELPING WITH A MISGUIDED OVER- MPHASIS ON MARKET ECONOMICS THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS CAPABLE OF RAPID MARKET REFORM THERE IS REASON TO FEAR THAT AN INTRUSIVE WESTERN EFFORT TO ALTER THE ECONOMY AGAINST THE WI SHES OF THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE CAN EXHAUST THE ALREADY DIMINISHING RESERVOIR OF GOODWILL TOWARD AMERICA ASSIST ANTIDEMOCRATIC FORCES AND HELP RECREATE AN ADVERSARIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST THE LEGACY or SOVIET MISMANAGEMENT HAS INVERTED THE NORMAL DIRECTION OF SOCIAL CHANGE WITH THE POLITICAL REALM DRIVING THE ECONOMIC REFORM IN RUSSIA WILL TAKE DIFFERENT FORMS FROM THOSE WE FAVOR FORMS or STATIST DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY AND or COMMUNITARIAN SOCIAL PRIORITIES DERIVED 'ROM RUSSIA'S OBJECTIVE NEEDS AND LONG TRADITIONS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD SEEK A NON-AGGRESSIVE RUSSIAN EXTERNAL POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT O ' WORKABLE DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS EVEN PERHAPS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE ECONOMIC CHOICES O ' THAT DEMOCRACY DO NOT ACHIEVE AN AMERICAN STANDARD OF SUCCESS END SUMMARY I Page 1 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED CQHl'IQl l l l'IM 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 108 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT 4 1994 WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT YEAR FOR RUSSIAN DEMOCRATS AMERICAN EQUITIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEMOCRATIC AND NON-AGGRESSIVE RUSSIAN STATE ARE AT GREATER RISK NOW THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE BEFORE THE COLLAPSE OF SOVIET POWER WITHOUT RESORTING TO THE REFORM IS DEAD AND WHO LOST RUSSIA 8 EXTREMES OF RECENT PUBLIC DEBATE IN THE WEST IT IS TIME TO QUESTION WHETHER UNITED STATES POLICY HAS CHOSEN THE CORRECT INSTRUMENTS TO SERVE OUR INTERESTS AND WHETHER THOSE INTERESTS HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY DEFINED 5 UNITED STATES INTERESTS DEPEND ON RUSSIA'S PERFORMANCE AS A GREAT POWER -- AS GREAT POWER IT SHALL REMAIN WITH THE ONLY ARSENAL OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CAPABLE OF THREATENING THE LIFE OF THE AMERICAN NATION THE YELTSIN GOVERNMENT'S ASPIRATION AS A GREAT POWER IS ACCEPTANCE AS A FULL PARTICIPANT IN THE WESTERN COMMUNITY OF STATES THE WEST SHOULD JUDGE RUSSIA'S ACCEPTABILITY PRIMARILY BY POLITICAL STANDARDS REFLECTING ITS PERFORMANCE IN ADHERING TO AGREED INTERNATIONAL NO U15 IN HUMAN AND CIVIL RIGHTS IN DEVELOPING ACCOUNTABLE AND DURABLE DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND IN CONDUCTING RESPONSIBLE RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES IN ALL THESE AREAS POST-SOVIET RUSSIA HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE IF INCOMPLETE STRIDES AND ASPIRES TO MORE 6 OUR INTERESTS ARE ONLY INDIRECTLY AND TANGENTIALLY LINKED TO THE FORM OF RUSSIA'S DOMESTIC ECONOMY A FIELD WHERE NO ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL NO U15 EXIST AND WESTERN COUNTRIES THEMSELVES VARY WIDELY IN BOTH THEORY AND PRACTICE IF RUSSIA ELECTS TO FOLLOW A NON-ANGLO-AMERICAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS IT WILL BE IN EXCELLENT COMPANY AMERICAN INTERESTS ARE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE FATE OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY BUT NOT TO THE CHOICES THAT DEMOCRACY MAY MAKE ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTION OF ITS OWN WEALTH AND ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF ITS MEANS OF PRODUCTION AND FINANCE OUR INTERESTS ARE BEST SERVED BY NEUTRALITY ON THESE QUESTIONS EVEN IF THE CHOICES PROVE TO BE ftWRONGw ACCORDING TO CURRENT AMERICAN ACADEMIC THEORY AND EVEN IF THEY RESULT IN OBJECTIVE ECONOMIC FAILURE IN THE Nl AR TERM AS THEY PROBABLY WILL RUSSIAN SOCIETY HAS AN ALMOST LIMITLESS CAPACITY TO ABSORB FAILURE AND TO ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS OWN ERRORS INCREASINGLY HOWEVER WESTERN POLICY IS SHIFTING THE LOCUS OF ACCOUNTABILITY IN RUSSIAN EYES FOR ECONOMIC FAILURES ONTO THE WEST WITH THE UNITED STATES IN THE BULL'S EYE NOTHING SERVES QNl'I951JHAls Page 2 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED QQHFIBBH'fIA b 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 109 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT SECTION 02 OF 15 MOSCOW 8 427 OUR INTERESTS LESS II 7 SYMPTOMATIC OF OUR PROBLEM WAS THE RECENT REFORM IS DEAD HAND-WRINGING IN THE WEST WHICH RUSSIAN LEADERS KNOW REFLECTED OUR INTERNAL POLICY DEBATES THIS WESTERN ANXIETY ATTACK WAS SUFFICIENT TO DISCOURAGE THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRATS ABOUT OUR CAPACITY FOR CONSISTENT POLICY IN A SOCIETY EVER INCLINED TO SEE NEFARIOUS MOTIVES IN FOREIGN COMMENTARY THE WESTERN DEBATE REACHED ITS NADIR SO FAR IN THE FRANTIC REACTIONS TO THE JANUARY RESIGNATIONS OF YEGOR GAYDAR AND BORIS FEDOROV -REACTIONS WHICH IN MOSCOW SEEMED ABSURD WHAT WERE RUSSIAN DEMOCRATS TO THINK WHEN THEY LEARNED THAT OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE OF THIS CONTINENTAL STATE DEPENDED ON THE PRESENCE IN THE CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION OF TWO SECOND-TIER APPOINTED OFFICIALS HOW ARE SENIOR REFORMERS LIKE CHUBAYS SHAKHRAY SHOKHIN KOZYREV AND OTHERS LET ALONE CHERNOMYRDIN AND YELTSIN HIMSELF TO REACT TO OUR ADVICE AFTER READING WE BELIEVE THERE NOW ARE NO REFORMERS IN THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT 8 IN PRAcrICAL TERMS IT WOULD HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IF GAYDAR AND FEDOROV REMAINED IN OFFICE BOTH MEN HAD LARGELY EXPENDED THEIR STOCK OF POLITICAL CAPITAL FEDOROV TOTALLY NEITHER COULD DOMINATE POLICY DEBATES IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE DECEMBER ELECTION AND BOTH WERE FAR TOO CLOSELY IDENTIFIED WITH THE WEST AND THE UNITED STATES FOR THEIR OWN POLITICAL GOOD AND OURS IN THE HIGHLY-CHARGED POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE OF THE NEW YEAR BOTH MEN HAD BECOME LIABILITIES TO THE REFORM PROCESS 9 GAYDAR BY FAR THE MORE ASTUTE O ' THE TWO ECONOMISTS RECOGNIZED THE DECLINE OF HIS INFLUENCE AND UNDERSTOOD THERE MUST BE CONSEQUENCES 'OR THE POOR ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE OF THE PARTY HE LEADS THE MISNAMED RUSSIA'S CHOICE TO HIS CREDIT GAYDAR ACKNOWLEDGES THAT HIS TWO TERMS O ' OFFICE WERE MARRED BY FAILURES AS WELL AS BY ACHIEVEMENTS AND KNOWS THERE ARE NO SIMPLE ONE-DIMENSIONAL POLICY SOLUTIONS TO DEEP SEATE D PROBLEMS HIS GREAT AND PROBABLY ENDURING LEGACY IS THE MOETIZATION O ' THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY BRINGING THE LGIC AND DISCIPLINE O ' FINANCE INTO ECONOMIC DECIION-MAKING AT ALL LEVELS GAYDAR'S DEPARTURE 'ROM GOVERNMENT WAS THE ACT or A MAN OF HONOR Page 3 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject OOUFIBl iH'i'IA i 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 110 06 3 7 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT AND CONVICTION ALTHOUGH HIS PERFORMANCE SO FAR AS LEADER OF THE LARGEST REFORM FACTION IN THE NEW DUMA HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE GAYDAR REMAINS A CONSTRUCTIVE FIGURE AND A REALIST 10 FEDOROV IN CONTRAST IS A NARROW AND RIGID SPECIALIST FULL OF PRAISE ONLY FOR HIMSELF AND OF DENUNCIATION FOR ALL WHO DO NOT PRAISE HIM HIS DEPARTURE WAS SHABBY MELODRAMA DEVOID OF POLICY CONTENT OR PERSONAL GRACE FEDOROV LEARNED NOTHING FROM THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS SAYING MUCH ABOUT HIS DEMOCRATIC CREDENTIALS AND LAID DOWN CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN OFFICE WHICH NO SELF-RESPECTING GOVERNMENT ON EARTH WOULD HAVE ACCEPTED PETULANT IN HIS REFUSAL TO ACKNOWLEDGE EVEN THE HINT OF ERROR IN HIS OWN PERFORMANCE LET ALONE HIS CONTRIBUTION TO THE ELECTORAL DISASTER BY WITHHOLDING THE PAY or MILLIONS OF WORKERS IN THE MONTHS BEFORE THE BALLOTING FEDOROV REMAINS A DESTRUCTIVE FIGURE IN THE DUMA HE REFUSED EVEN TO MAKE COMMON CAUSE WITH GAYDAR BUT IMMEDIATELY CREATED A SCHISM IN THE ALREADY SHAKY DEMOCRATIC RANKS III 11 EVEN THE MOST UNCRITICAL WESTERN FANS OF THE RUSSIAN RADICAL MARKET REFORMERS MUST OR SHOULD NOW RECOGNIZE THAT THE RADICALS LOST A GENERAL ELECTION LOST IT BADLY AND LOST IT FAIR AND SQUARE BEFORE DECEMBER 12 THERE WAS MUCH ANXIETY IN THE WEST THAT THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN WAS SO TILTED IN FAVOR OF RUSSIA'S CHOICE AS TO RENDER THE OUTCOME SUSPECT IN THE EVENT THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS IRONICALLY DEMONSTRATED THE UNDERLYING MERIT OF REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY THE ONLY WAY REALLY TO KNOW WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT AND DON'T WANT IS TO ASK THEM 12 WHAT THE ELECTION SHOWED YET AGAIN IS THAT RUSSIA IS A VERY DIFFERENT SOCIETY THAN AMERICA IN CONTEMPORARY AMERICAN RHETORIC DEMOCRACY AND THE MARKET• ARE TREATED AS ALMOST SYNONYMOUS TERMS AND CERTAINLY AS MUTUALLY DEPENDENT FEW IF ANY RUSSIANS PERCEIVE THEM SO AMERICAN DOGMA PORTRAYS DEMOCRACY AND THE MARKET· AS FREEDOM or CHOICE FOR THE INDIVIDUAL IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REALMS WITH GOHFIDl itPHMs SECTION 03 or 15 MOSCOW 8427 HIGHLY POSITIVE ETHICAL CONNOTATIONS RUSSIANS AND MOST NON-AMERICANS ARE SIMPLY BAFFLED BY THIS VISION Page 4 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED eettFIEl flHU A f i 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 111 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT OF A SOCIETAL DOUBLE HELIX OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DECISIONS LEADING TO A HIGHER MORAL AND MATERIAL STATE OF BEING VERY VERY FEW RUSSIANS IMPART POSITIVE ETHICAL CONTENT TO MARKET FORCES AND UNFORTUNATELY MORE OF THESE ARE MAFIA THAN ECONOMISTS MOST RUSSIANS VIEW THE MARKET AS ALIEN AND THREATENING AS THE PRESERVE OF EXPLOITERS AND SPECULATORS WHOSE CHOICES ARE INEVITABLY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE HAFLESS CONSUMER 13 IN TERMS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES WE ESPOUSE THE RADICAL REFORMERS DESERVED TO LOSE THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE REALITIES OF LIFE IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY THE BRASH YOUNG REFORMERS OF RUSSIA'S CHOICE ADVOCATED A RAPID AND FORCED SHIFT TO MARKET MECHANISMS WITH A GREATLY REDUCED ROLE FOR GOVERNMENT MAXIMUM FREEDOM OF CHOICE F-OR INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS AND CONSUMERS AND MINIMUM SOCIAL PROTECTIONS OTHER REFORMIST PARTIES PROPOSED A MIXTURE OF MARKET MECHANISMS WITH STATE INTERVENTION BUT ON ELECTION DAY MARKETEERS OF ALL STRIPES RECEIVED BARELY ONE THIRD OF VOTES CAST WITH THE CAUTIOUS REFORMERS AND CENTRISTS AGGREGATING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE VOTES THAN THE RADICALS A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVE ELECTORATE SUPPORTED PARTIES ESPOUSING OVERTLY STATIST ECONOMIC PROGRAMS 14 THE ELECTION OUTCOME WAS NOT A FLUKE NOR THE RESULT OF MEDIA MANIPULATION THE CAMPAIGN PROVIDED AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL COMPETING VIEWS WHILE RUSSIANS UNDERSTAND VERY WELL THE CHOICES THEY FACE WHATEVER MAY BE WESTERN THEORETICAL DEFINITIONS OF SHOCK THERAPY THE RUSSIAN VOTER COULD LOOK BACK ON MORE ECONOMIC DISLOCATION IN THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS THAN IN THE PRECEDING FORTY AND KNEW WHAT TO EXPECT AT THE HANDS OF THE RADICALS RUSSIA'S CHOICE APPEALED TO EDUCATED AND ENTERPRISING INDIVIDUALS AND DID VERY WELL AMONG THEM DESPITE ILL-ADVISED USE 0 AMERICAN-STYLE ADVERTISING UNFORTUNATELY THE RADICALS APPEALED ONLY TO INDIVIDUALS NOT TO COMMUNITIES OR COLLECTIVES IN A COUNTRY WHERE GROUP IDENTITY REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING INDIVIDUAL CHOICES IRONICALLY THE ANTI-DEMOCRATS UNDERSTOOD WHAT POLITICAL PARTIES ARE SUPPOSED TO DO IN DEMOCRATIC SOCIETIES REPRESENT CONSTITUENCIES AND GROUP INTERESTS IN DOING SO THEY WON 15 THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS WERE NOT A MANDATE TO RETURN TO ANYTHING LIKE THE SOVIET SYSTEM THI ELECTIONS WERE ABOUT THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY SOCIAL PAIN CERTAINLY PLAYED A ROLE BUT EAR Page 5 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED OOHFIBBH'fIAls 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 112 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT OF THE FUTURE WAS DECISIVE IN PRECEDING MONTHS THE BOTTOM FELL OUT OF LIVING STANDARDS FOR MILLIONS OF WORKING CLASS PEOPLE WHO HAD MANAGED TO SCRAPE BY UNTIL THEN MEANWHILE RUSSIANS AT ALL ECONOMIC LEVELS WERE HORRIFIED BY THE BLOODY AUTUMN CONFRONTATION IN THE CAPITAL IN CONSEQUENCE ANXIETY SPREAD THAT THE COUNTRY WAS ON THE ROAD TO DISASTER RUSSIANS FEARED THAT THE BASIC PRIORITIES OF THEIR SOCIETY WERE IN DANGER AND TOOK THOSE FEARS TO THE BALLOT BOX 16 THE ELECTION RESULTS MUST AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PUBLIC POLICY AS IN ANY COUNTRY WITH AN ACCOUNTABLE DEMOCRACY WIDESPREAD DOUBT THIS WOULD BE SO WAS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY LOW TURNOUT IF THE DEMOCRATIC COMMITMENTS ENSHRINED IN THE NEW CONSTITUTION ARE NOT TO BE PROVEN A SHAM POLIC Y MUST RESPOND TO THE VOTERS THIS SEEMS AN OBVIOUS POINT BUT IS WORTH STRESSING IN LIGHT OF THE WIDESPREAD WESTERN REACTION THAT THANK GOD THE PARLIAMENT IS WEAK OTHERWISE IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CHANGE ECONOMIC POLICY FORTUNATELY UNDER THE NEW CONSTITUTION YELTSIN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO IGNORE THE ELECTIONS IV 17 DESPITE HIS OCCASIONAL RESORT TO EXECUTIVE ACTION BORIS YELTSIN HAS NEITHER THE MIND NOR THE INCLINATIONS IN CONTRAST TO GORBACHEV WHO ALEKSANDR OF A DICTATOR YAKOVLEV SAID WAS BY NATURE A DEMOCRAT BUT ALWAYS AFRAID OF DEMOCRACY YELTSIN IS A DOMINATING INDIVIDUAL WHO DOES NOT FEAR HIS PEOPLE DISAPPOINTED AS HE WAS BY THE ELECTION RESULTS YELTSIN IS SUFFICIENTLY UNAFRAID OF DEMOCRACY TO ACCEPT THE OUTCOME AND TO DEAL WITH THE CONSEQUENCES MORE THAN CAN BE SAID FOR SOME OF HIS ADMIRERS WHO INTIMATED THAT A REPEAT OF HIS AUTUMN MEASURES WOULD BE WELCOME THESE CONSEQUENCES WILL OFTEN BE VERY DISAGREEABLE AS WAS THE RELEASE OF RUTSKOY KHASBULATOV AND ASSOCIATES WHILE YELTSIN MIGHT HAVE SECTION 04 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 YWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT DEFIED THE DUMA ON THE AMNESTY ISSUE OR AT LEAST EMPLOYED LEGAL TECHNICALITIES TO DELAY IMPLEMENTATION THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT SHOWED HIS COMMITMENT TO RULE OF Page 6 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED eettl I l lff M 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 113 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT LAW BY BOWING TO THE LETTER OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION HE HAD HIMSELF PROVIDED 18 IN BOTH WORD AND DEED IN RECENT WEEKS YELTSIN HAS DEMONSTRATED RESPECT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC MECHANISMS HE DID MUCH TO CREATE PLUS HIS BELIEF THAT AS NATIONAL LEADER HE SHOULD BE AHEAD OF PUBLIC OPINION RATHER THAN PRISONER TO IT THE CONFLICT OF STRONG EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP WITH GROWING LEGISLATIVE POWER WILL DEFINE RUSSIAN POLITICS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD PROBABLY RESULTING IN POLICY GRIDLOCK RATHER THAN ENDURE A REPETITION OF THE EXECUTIVE-LEGISLATIVE STRUGGLES OF 1992-93 YELTSIN AND CHERNOMYRDIN HAVE SOUGHT A MODUS VIVENDI WITH THE LEGISLATURE TO PRESERVE THE BASIC LINES OF REFORM THROUGH A MEMORANDUM OF NATIONAL ACCORD AND PEACE UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE BEST WILL IN THE WORLD THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT WORK CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH THE NEW DUMA IF ONLY BECAUSE THE DUMA IS INCAPABLE OF WORKING CONSTRUCTIVELY WITHIN ITSELF THE PLETHORA OF FACTIONS AND THEIR MUTUAL INCOMPATIBILITY THE ANTI-DEMOCRATIC AND ANTI-REFORM BIAS OF THE MAJORITY OF DEPUTIES THE ABSENCE OF ANY RUSSIAN TRADITION OF A TRUE LEGISLATIVE AS OPPOSED TO DELIBERATIVE BODY AND THE SHORT TERM OF THIS DUMA TWO YEARS ALL MILITATE AGAINST RESPONSIBLE LEGISLATIVE BEHAVIOR 19 ONLY HALFWAY THROUGH HIS LEGAL TERM OF OFFICE AS RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN FACES GREATER DOMESTIC CHALLENGES WITH FEWER EFFECTIVE ALLIES THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE HE CUT HIS TIES TO THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND GORBACHEV YELTSIN IS NOT WITHOUT CONSIDERABLE RESOURCES PERSONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL YELTSIN HAS VARIOUS PHYSICAL PROBLEMS THE MOST SERIOUS THE RESULT OF THE LOWER BACK INJURIES FOR WHICH HE TAKES OCCASIONAL STRONG MEDICATION BUT HE REMAINS A ROBUST INDIVIDUAL OF REMARKABLE STAMINA IF PERIODIC RESORT TO ALCOHOL IS A FAILING IT IS ONE YELTSIN SHARES WITH MOST OF THE ADULT MALE POPULATION OF HIS COUNTRY DESPITE HIS OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF DEPRESSION AND ISOLATION TRAITS SHARED BY LINCOLN CHURCHILL AND OTHERS YELTSIN HAS SHOWN AGAIN AND AGAIN AN ABILITY TO RISE TO THE CHALLENGE IN A CRISIS UNFORTUNATELY IT OrTEN TAKES A CRISIS TO GET HIM OFF THE DIME YELTSIN HAS HAD DOWN• PERIODS BEFORE INDEED HE WAS MUCH LESS ACTIVE AND LESS IN CONTROL DURING JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1993 THAN IN RECENT WEEKS BUT CAME ROARING BACK IN THE SPRING IN ADDITION YELTSIN NOW COMMANDS JURID cAL AUTHORITY FAR BEYOND ANYTHING HE ENJOYED UNDER THE SOVIET-ERA RUSSIAN CONSTITUTION IN LEGAL TERMS YELTSIN IS AS STRONG IN RUSSIA TODAY AS Page 7 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED COUFIBBUlflM 09 12 2024 0 3 2 8 94 Page 114 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT WAS DE GAULLE IN FRANCE IN THE EARLY SIXTIES 20 UWFORTUNATELY YELTSIN'S CONSTITUTIONAL POWER WILL AVAIL HIM NO MORE THAN DID DE GAULLE'S IN 1968 IF HE CONTINUES TO LOSE PUBLIC TRUST YELTSIN'S POPULARITY HA S WANED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE ITS APOGEE IN AUGUST 1991 SOME EROSION WAS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME AND THE IMPACT OF REFORM POLICIES HOWEVER MORE IS INVOLVED YELTSIN HAS LOST STATURE WITH HIS PEOPLE FOR FOUR REASONS AT LEAST 21 FIRST YELTSIN IS MUCH LESS EFFECTIVE IN OFFICE THAN IN OPPOSITION THE FIRE AND CHARISMA OF YELTSIN'S ASSAULT ON THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM DURING 1991 ARE MOSTLY ABSENT FROM HIS PRESIDENTIAL PERFORMANCE THE RECENT STATE OF THE FEDERATION ADDRESS IS A CASE IN POINT THE TEXT MAKES ALL THE RIGHT POINTS COOPTS ALL THE OPPOSITION'S ISSUES AND WAS FORCEFULLY DELIVERED UNFORTUNATELY THE SPEECH LEFT MOST RUSSIANS REFORMERS INCLUDED UNMOVED TO THE AVERAGE RUSSIAN VIEWER THE PRESENTATION RESEMBLED THAT OF A SOVIET- ERA GENERAL-SECRETARY MISSING WERE THE VIR_ILE LEADERSHIP AND MORAL AUTHORITY OF YELTSIN IN OPPOSITION 22 SECOND YELTSIN NO LONGER HAS HIS FINGER ON THE PULSE OF AVERAGE PEOPLE MORE TO THE POINT AVERAGE PEOPLE KNOW IT GONE IS THE SVERDLOVSK PARTY BOSS WHO SHOPPED AT THE LOCAL MARKET AND THE NEW PRESIDENT WHO VISITED A DIFFERENT REGION EACH MONTH TO PRESS THE FLESH AND LISTEN TO COMPLAINTS YELTSIN LEADS A MODEST LIFESTYLE COMPARED TO HIS PREDECESSORS OR WESTERN COUNTERPARTS BUT TO THE RUSSIAN EYE HE IS SURROUNDED BY EVER-INCREASING REGAL TRAPPINGS THE PANOPLY OF POWER AND A NARROW CLIQUE OF COURTIERS WHEN COAL MINERS IN THE FAR NORTH THE CUTTING EDGE OF ANTI-SOVIETISM RECENTLY CALLED FOR YELTSIN'S OUSTER IT WAS BECAUSE THEY FEEL THEIR TRIBUNE HAS BECOME A PATRICIAN SECTION 05 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 23 THIRD LIKE GORBACHEV BEFORE HIM YELTSIN IS INCREASINGLY PRESIDENT FOR THE OUTSIDE WORLD RATHER THAN FOR HIS OWN PEOPLE THE MAN WHO TWO YEARS AGO FLATLY REFUSED TO GIVE TIM TO VISITING FOREIGNERSNOW DEVOTES MUCH OF HIS SCHEDULE TO THE INSATIABLE DEMANDS OF WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND INSTITUTIONS UFORTUNATELY EACH SUCCESSIVE WESTERN DELEGATION TO Page 8 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject OOHFIBf H'fI fl 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 115 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT THE KREMLIN INCREASES FEAR IN THE MINDS OF THE POPULACE THAT THEIR COUNTRY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A DEPENDENCY OF THE WEST ONLY RARELY AS IN BOSNIA DOES A FOREIGN UNDERTAKING BRING CREDIT AT HOME AND ONLY WHEN THE POLICY IS OVERTLY IN SUPPORT OF RUSSIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS 24 FOURTH THE AUTUMN CONFRONTATION WITH THE OLD LEGISLATURE WAS A PYRRHIC VICTORY FOR TH E RUSSIAN PRESIDENT WHO IRREVOCABLY LOST PART OF HIS POPULAR MANDATE RUSSIANS OF ALL POLITICAL VIEWPOINTS WERE DEEPLY HUMILIATED BY THE BLOODBATH IN THE CENTER OF MOSCOW AND INCLINED TO GIVE CREDIT TO NONE OF THE PARTICIPANTS EVEN RUSSIANS WHO WERE VERY RELIEVED THAT YELTSIN WON THE BATTLE DID NOT THANK HIM FOR INITIATING THE CONFRONTATION THE ABSENCE OF PUBLIC EMOTION ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TO THE RELEASE OF RUTSKOY AND HIS ASSOCIATES DEMONSTRATES THE ALIENATION OF RUSSIANS FROM ALL THEIR POLITICIANS UNFORTUNATELY INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT V 25 THE DIMINISH MENT OF YELTSIN'$ STANDING WOULD BE COMPARATIVELY UNIMPORTANT IF COMPENSATED BY AN INCREASE IN THE CREDIBILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF OTHER DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL FORCES THE OPPOSITE IS THE CASE YELTSIN IS THE LEADER OF A GOVERNMENT CLOSELY MODELED ON DE GAULLE'S FIFTH REPUBLIC BUT WITHOUT A GAULLIST PARTY TO TRANSFORM PRESIDENTIAL POLICY INTO POLITICAL MOMENTUM AFTER SEVERAL FALSE STARTS IT IS CLEAR YELTSIN WILL NOT INITIATE A PRESIDENTIAL PARTY BECAUSE HE DOES NOT WANT TO DESPITE GOOD AND FREQUENT ADVICE TO THE CONTRARY YELTSIN PREFERS TO BE PRESIDENT IN THE GERMAN OR ITALIAN STYLE RATHER THAN THE AMERICAN OR FRENCH EVEN IF HE NOW HAD A CHANGE OF MIND IT IS TOO LATE TO RECTIFY THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE LACK OF A PARTY TO SHARE YELTSIN'S PRESTIGE WITH HIS POLITICAL ASSOCIATES THINGS ARE NOW AT THE POINT WHERE MANY REFORMIST POLITICIANS ACTIVELY DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE PRESIDENT IN PART FOR FEAR OF NEGATIVE COATTAILS 26 WHATEVER YELTSIN'S RECENT FAILINGS AS A POLITICAL TACTICIAN OTHER DEMOCRATS ARE EVEN WORSE THREE MONTHS AFTER AN ELECTORAL DISASTER RUSSIA'S DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL FORCES HAVE LEARNED NOTHING DISUNITED AND FRACTIOUS BEFORE THE ELECTION THE DEMOCRATS NOW ARE SCHISMATIC AS ONLY WELL-MEANING RUSSIANS CAN BE IT IS INDICATIVE THAT BORIS FEDOROV COULD NOT ABIDE SITTING IN THE SAME PARLIAMENTARY FACTION WITH YEGOR GAYDAR WHILE SERGEI SHAKHRAY ACTIVELY SUPPORTED AN AMNESTY FOR Page 9 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED OOHFH eiHTIM 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 116 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT THE PRESIDENT'S ENEMIES WHILE OCCUPYING A SENIOR MINISTERIAL POST IN THE GOVERNMENT SPEAKER RYBKIN WAS NOT FAR FROM THE TRUTH WHEN HE SAID THAT ALL DEPUTIES NOW OPPOSE YELTSIN AT TIMES THE DISARRAY OF THE DEMOCRATS APPROACHES PARODY FOR EX AMPLE ONE PRO-DEMOCRACY GROUP RECENTLY ELECTED A SENIOR MEMBER OF ANOTHER GROUP TO A LEADERSHIP POSITION WITHOUT HER KNOWLEDGE LACKING A STRONG WHIP-HAND FROM YELTSIN RUSSIAN DEMOCRATS HAVE SHOWN THEMSELVES A PATHETIC LOT 27 NOWHERE IS THE STRUCTURAL WEAKNESS OF THE DEMOCRATS MORE APPARENT THAN IN THE LOWER HOUSE OF THE NEW LEGISLATURE THE STATE DUMA HOLDING BARELY ONE-THIRD OF THE SEATS THE DEMOCRATS EFFECTIVELY OPERATE AT THE MARGINS FOR THREE REASONS FIRST MANY DEMOCRATIC DEPUTIES DO NOT BOTHER TO SHOW UP FOR SESSIONS SECOND THE VARIOUS PRODEMOCRACY FACTIONS PREFER TO SUBDIVIDE AND FIGHT ONE ANOTHER THAN UNITE SHAKHRAY RECENTLY ANNOUNCED HE DOES NOT EVEN REGARD GAYDAR'S FACTION AS AN ALLY WITHIN THE DUMA AND THIRD ANTI-DEMOCRACY FORCES NEO-COMMUNISTS AND ULTRA-NATIONALISTS HAVE AN ACTIVIST AGENDA COOPERATE TACTICALLY AND KEEP THEIR DEPUTIES IN THE HALL AT VOTING TIME MAYOR DALEY ONCE SAID POLITICS IS KNOWING HOW TO COUNT BY THIS STANDARD ANTI-DEMOCRATIC FORCES IN THE DUMA ARE POLITICIANS THE DEMOCRATS ARE NOT VI 28 ANTI-DEMOCRATIC FORCES ARE CERTAINLY NOT LACKING IN CONVICTION IMMENSELY HEARTENED BY THEIR ELECTORAL SUCCESS THE REDS AND BROWNS -- SEPARATELY AND JOINTLY -- BELIEVE THEY HAVE RESTORED THEIR LOSSES FROM THE OOHFIBl IH Ili SECTION 06 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 AUTUMN CONFRONTATION OF WHICH THE AMNESTY IS A TANGIBLE MANIFESTATION AND SEE EVENTS MOVING IN THEIR DIRECTION THE HARDLINERS DENY THE LEGITIMACY OF THE NEW CONSTITUTION DESPITE WORKING WITHIN ITS PARAMETERS FOR THE TIME BEING AND BELIEVE YELTSIN'S OWN ELECTORAL MANDATE WAS NULLIFIED BY HIS DECISION TO SUSPEND THE OLD CONSTITUTION AND PROROGUE THE LEGISLATURE THERE REMAIN NAGGING DOUBTS THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN FACT ATTAINED THE FIFTY PERCENT PARTICIPATION RATE NEEDED TO BE VALID THE FAILURE or THE CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION TO PUBLISH DETAILED TABULATIONS NOW LONG OVERDUE CONFIRMS THIS DOUBT IN MANY MINDS IF IT SHOULD BE CONVINCINGLY DEMONSTRATED Page 10 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED CONPIB JM' IA b 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 117 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT THAT THE REFERENDUM RESULTS WERE FALSIFIED YELTSIN'$ CONSTITUTIONAL STANDING WOULD BE IN SERIOUS PERIL 29 BOTH NEO-COMMUNISTS ANO ULTRA-NATIONALISTS REGARD THE NEW CONSTITUTION AS A TEMPORARY DOCUMENT ANO YELTSIN'$ PRESIDENCY AS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE ITS FULL TERM UNTIL 1996 ZHIRINOVSKIY'S PUBLIC PRAISE FOR THE STRONG PRESIDENTIAL POWERS IN THE CONSTITUTION HARDLY MASKS HIS CONTEMPT FOR ITS SEPARATION OF POWERS OR PROTECTIONS OF CIVIL LIBERTIES BECAUSE CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION REQUIRES BROADER STRENGTH THAN THEY NOW COMMAND HARDLINERS IN THE DUMA SEE EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AS THEIR BEST VEHICLE FOR TAKING POWER IN THE NEAR TERM IT IS FORTUNATE THAT THE TIMING OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IS CONSTITUTIONALLY THE PURVIEW OF THE UPPER HOUSE THE FEDERATION COUNCIL WHERE YELTSIN HAS MORE INFLUENCE AMONG MEMBERS AND A CLOSE YELTSIN ALLY VLADIMIR SHUMEYKO AS SPEAKER NONETHELESS DUMA HARDLINERS BELIEVE GRIDLOCK BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND LEGISLATURE WHICH THEY CAN GUARANTEE WILL GIVE THEM A BASIS TO DEMAND AN EARLY PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT -- ESPECIALLY IF OTHER ELECTORAL CONTESTS GO THEIR WAY 30 HAVING BOTCHED ONE ELECTION IN DECEMBER DESPITE HUGE ADVANTAGES THE DEMOCRATS WERE EVEN LESS WELL-PREPARED TO CONTEST A SERIES OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL ELECTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LA TE WINTER AND SPRING TO REPLACE THE OLD-STYLE LOCAL SOVIETS YELTSIN DISBANDED LAST FALL IN THE CONTESTS THUS FAR TRADITIONAL NOMENKLATURA CANDIDATES HAVE SWAMPED THE DISORGANIZED AND DIVIDED PRO-REFORM FORCES IN THOSE DISTRICTS WHERE ENOUGH BALLOTS WERE CAST FOR A VALID ELECTION ONLY TWENTY-FIVE PERCENT IF THE ELECTIONS ALL TAKE PLACE MUCH OF THE PROVINCIAL POWER STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT RUSSIA WILL FALL EVEN FURTHER INTO THE GRIP OF STATUS QUO OR REACTIONARY FORCES BUT WITH THE ADVANTAGE OF ELECTORAL LEGITIMACY THE REACTION FROM THE KREMLIN TO THIS DANGER SPEAKS VOLUMES IT OFFERED SINECURES TO COMPETING LOCAL REFORM CANDIDATES IN AN EFFORT TO PREVENT FRATRICIDE AND SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED POSTPONING THE ELECTIONS OUTRIGHT 31 ONLY IN THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IS THE PICTURE EVEN MODERATELY BRIGHT DESPITE PETULANT CRITICISMS FROM SOME RADICAL REFORMERS PRIME MINISTER CHERNOMYRDIN HAS NOT JETTISONED REFORM NOR RESTORED THE RAND SICKLE TO GOVERNMENT STATIONERY IN THE MAIN CHERNOMYRDIN IS TRYING TO HOLD ON TO THE BASIC POLICY GOALS AND MECHANISMS AGREED LAST AUGUST DESPITE Page 11 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject OOHl 'I0£lH'fioATJ 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 118 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT STRIDENT SPECIAL-INTEREST PLEADINGS FROM MOST MAJOR MINISTRIES ITSELF THE BEST INDICATION THE PRIME MINISTER HAS NOT OPENED THE FINANCIAL FLOODGATES OTHER SENIOR FIGURES WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT -- DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CHUBAYS ECONOMICS MINISTER SHOKHIN FOREIGN MINISTER KOZYREV AMONG OTHERS -- ALSO ARE RYING TO PRESERVE THE MANY REAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF RECENT YEARS WITHOUT LOSING CONTROL OF PUBLIC POLICY TO ANTI-DEMOCRATIC FORCES VII 32 UNFORTUNATELY IN ECONOMIC POLICY THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT IS ON THE HORNS OF A DILEMMA IT CANNOT IGNORE THE DEMANDS OF MAJOR SECTORS FOR FINANCIAL SUSTENANCE NOR CAN IT RISK PUSHING INFLATION FROM MEGA TO HYPER LEVELS THE GOVERNMENT MUST SOON SPEND A GREAT DEAL OF MONEY AS THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS CRITICALLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNINTERRUPTED OPERATIONS OF ITS ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTORS ESPECIALLY IN WINTER MONTHS THE DANGER THAT RECENT MINER STRIKES WILL DEVELOP INTO LARGE-SCALE PROLONGED LABOR UNREST IS THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT TO DOMESTIC STABILITY IN RUSSIA IN THE NEAR TERM MORE DANGEROUS THAN CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF INFLATION WHICH MUCH OF THE POPULATION HAS ADJUSTED TO MAJOR STRIKES WOULD CHALLENGE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE GOVERNMENT IN WAYS INFLATION DOES NOT PERHAPS REQUIRING THE THREAT OR USE OF FORCE SOMETHING THE GOVERNMENT BADLY WANTS TO AVOID IN THE OOHflI0 1tf'fihli SECTION 07 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 AFTERMATH OF OCTOBER 3-4 ALTHOUGH CAVING IN TO LABOR DEMANDS HOWEVER JUSTIFIED IN HUMAN TERMS WILL BE VERY EXPENSIVE BOTH IN MONEY AND IN POLITICAL CAPITAL NOT TO DO SO COULD BE EVEN WORSE AS RUSSIAN LEADERS REMEMBER THAT MILITANT COAL MINERS PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN ERRODING GORBACHEV'S STANDING 33 TO MEET THE INCREASING DEMANDS or WORKERS WHO CANNOT BE IGNORED GOVERNMENT SPENDING WILL CONSIDERABLY EXCEED GOVERNMENT REVENUES IN THE MONTHS AHEAD REGARDLESS or THE CONSERVATIVE FIGURES IN THE OFFICIAL BUDGET MOSCOW'S ABILITY TO GENERATE AND COLLECT REVENUES DOES NOT EVEN BEGIN TO MATCH THE LEGITIMATE DEMANDS ON GOVERNMENT COFFERS STILL LESS THE ILLEGITIMA E ONES THE TRICK WILL BE TO KEEP THE INFLATION PRODUCED BY THESE DEFICITS AT •TOLERABLE• LEVELS AND NOT TO IGNITE HYPERINFLATION Page 12 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 119 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT 34 RUSSIAN INFLATION WHILE VERY HIGH HAS NOT YET EXPERIENCED THE GEOMETRIC RATES OF INCREASE CHARACTERISTIC OF HYPERINFLATION TO SOME EXTENT RUSSIA WAS SPARED HYPERINFLATION AFTER THE GAYDAR-DIRECTED PRICE LIBERALIZATION OF 1992 BECAUSE THE ECONOMY WAS THEN AT A FAIRLY PRIMITIVE LEVEL OF MONETIZATION WITH MONEY STILL PLAYING A SECONDARY ROLE IN DETERMINING THE DISTRIBUTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE RUSSIA IN 1994 HAS PROGRESSED AN ASTOUNDING DISTANCE IN THE DIRECTION OF A MONEY-DRIVEN ECONOMY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY AS BARTER STILL PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN INTER-ENTERPRISE TRANSACTIONS THUS IN 1994 THE DANGER OF HIGH INF LATION BECOMING HYPER MAY BE GREATER THAN BEFORE NOT LESS THE KIND OF PRINTING-PRESS CREDIT EMISSIONS CONDUCTED BY THE CENTRAL BANK IN MID-1992 IF REPEATED NOW COULD PUSH THE RUBLE INTO SUCH A SPIRAL 35 DO RUSSIA'S LEADERS TODAY UNDERSTAND THIS THREAT THE ANSWER IS BOTH YES AND NO YELTSIN CHERNOMYRDIN SOSKOVETS AND THEIR COLLEAGUES ARE NOT STUPID THE OPINIONS OF SOME WESTERN COMMENTATORS NOTWITHSTANDING THESE MEN HAVE LEARNED A GREAT DEAL IN THE PAST TWO YEARS AS THEIR RECENT VERY CAUTIOUS STATEMENTS ABOUT CREDIT POLICY INDICATE EVEN SO DUBIOUS A FIGURE AS CENTRAL BANK CHAIRMAN GERASHCHENKO WHOSE APPOINTMENT GAYDAR ACKNOWLEDGED WAS HIS WORST MISTAKE WOULD NOT REPEAT THE WHOLESALE CREDIT GIVEAWAY HE SUPERVISED IN THE PAST IF NOTHING ELSE CHERNOMYRDIN AND GERASHCHENKO HAVE LEARNED THAT ENTERPRISE MANAGERS OFTEN DO NOT USE CREDITS FOR THE PURPOSES INTENDED BY THE GOVERNMENT IN 1994 THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE FAR MORE PARSIMONIOUS IN DOLING OUT THE MEAGER STATE FUNDS AT ITS DISPOSAL AND WILL WANT ACCOUNTABILITY OF A KIND NOT PREVIOUSLY REQUIRED OF NECESSITY NONESSENTIAL SECTORS WILL BE LErT PRETTY MUCH TO THEIR OWN DEVICES 36 UNFORTUNATELY IT IS ALSO TRUE THAT YELTSIN CHERNOMYRDIN AND THEIR PEERS SUFFER FROM AN INTELLECTUAL BLINDSPOT WHERE PUBLIC FINANCE IS CONCERNED THE AUGUST 1993 CURRENCY REFORM FIASCO IS A CASE IN POINT PRODUCTS OF THE OLD SYSTl M THEY THINK or MONEY IN PRIMITIVE TERMS AND SCARCELY COMPREHEND FINANCE IN ANYTHING LIKE THE WESTERN SENSE WITH BACKGROUNDS IN CENTRALLY-PLANNED PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION THIS GENERATION OF RUSSIAN MANAGERS IS CRIPPLED IN FINANCIAL SOPHISTICATION IN FACT FEW RUSSIANS ABOVE THE AGE OF FORTY THINK or MONEY IN DYNAMIC TERMS LET ALONE GRASP HOW LOOSE PUBLIC Page 13 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED eenr IBBU' Hd POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 120 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT FINANCES CAN SWAMP AN ECONOMY LIKE THE FLOODS OVERTAKING THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE IT IS IN THIS KEY AREA THAT THE YOUTHFUL GAYDAR AND FEDOROV WERE IMPORTANT VOICES IN TOP GOVERNMENT COUNSELS 37 PROSPECTS FOR SUCCESS IN BALANCING PUBLIC SPENDI N WITH INFLATION ARE NOT GOOD THESE REMAIN HOWEVER RUSSIAN DECISIONS WITH CONSEQUENCES FIRST AND FOREMOST FOR RUSSIANS UNLESS THE OUTSIDE WORLD IS PREPARED TO OFFER A FINANCIAL STABILIZATION PACKAGE OF THE SCALE AND TERMS REQUISITE TO THE NEEDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IT DOES NO GOOD AND CONSIDERABLE HARM TO LECTURE THE RUSSIANS ON FINANCIAL PROBITY NOT AFTER ALL THE STRONG SUIT OF MANY WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AS THE WEST HAS A SMALL PURSE AND THE RUSSIANS KNOW IT IT WILL BE RUSSIANS WHO PAY THE PIPER CALL THE TUNE AND LIVE WITH THE RESULTS VIII 38 EVEN IF THE WEST HAD BOTH WILL AND WALLET THE TASK OF TURNING RUSSIA INTO AN ECONOMY PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY PRIVATE CAPITAL WOULD BE BEYOND OUR TALENTS AND MORE IMPORTANT AGAINST RUSSIA'S PREFERENCES WESTERN AND PARTICULARLY AMERICAN ATTITUDES TOWARD RUSSIAN 0OHP IB Btf'l' l'Afl SECTION 08 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 REFORM IN THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY AN IGNORANCE AND NAIVETE SIMILAR TO EARLY WEST GERMAN THINKING ABOUT THE JOB OF REBUILDING THE FORMER GDR NO ONE CAN REASONABLY ARGUE THAT ECONOMIC SHOCK THERAPY LAVISHLY FUNDED BY BONN WAS NOT USED IN EASTERN GERMANY BUT CONFIDENT EARLY PREDICTIONS OF RAPID MARKET TRANSFORMATION HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A SOBER REALIZATION THAT EVEN THE DEEP POCKETS OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC WILL BE STRETCHED FOR DECADES TO BRING A RELATIVELY ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY THE SIZE OF OHIO TO THE POINT OF FULL COMPETITIVENESS WITH THE WEST 39 WHY THEN DID SO MANY IN THE WEST THINK OF RUSSIA -- VASTLY LARGER THAN ALL OF EASTERN EUROPE AND MUCH WORSE-MANAGED FOR FAR LONGER -- AS AN APPROPRIATE LABORATORY FOR SWIFT MARKET REFORM THE EXPERIENCE OF NEARBY POLAND SIMILAR IN MANY WAYS TO RUSSIA SHOULD HAVE WARNED ANYONE OF THE IMMENSE DIFFICULTIES AND LIMITATIONS OF EVEN BOLD POLICIES ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NO ECONOMIST BORIS YELTSIN RECOGNIZED THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CHALLENGE IN EARLY 1992 WHEN HE PREDICTED THAT Page 14 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED GOUFIBl iH'fIM 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 121 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT RUSSIA AFTER FIVE TO SEVEN YEARS OF RADICAL TRANSFORMATION MIGHT HOPE TO REACH A STANDARD OF LIVING ENJOYED THEN BY THE POLES A STANDARD OF LIVING WHICH RECENTLY PROVOKED A SHARP ELECTORAL BACKLASH IN POLAND ITSELF IX 40 ALMOST REGARDLESS OF THE ECONOMIC POLICIES IT PURSUES RUSSIA FOR DECADES IF NOT GENERATIONS WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY THE BLUNDERS AND THE CRIMES OF ITS SOVIET PAST SEVENTY- FOUR YEARS OF SOCIALIST MISMANAGEMENT STAND IN THE WAY OF RAPID ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION RUSSIA HAS INHERITED AN ECONOMY DESIGNED TO PRODUCE THE WRONG THINGS IN THE WRONG PLACES IN THE WRONG WAYS AND WITHOUT ANY OF THE LOGIC OR DISCIPLINE OF RATIONAL PRICES THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS THAT OF A GARRISON STATE STRUCTURED TO SUPPORT A VAST EMPIRE THE EMPIRE IS GONE BUT THE LEGACY OF THE GARRISON STATE REMAINS AND WILL REMAIN IN ALL ASPECTS OF THE ECONOMY FOR A VERY LONG TIME 41 BEYOND ITS MISCONCEIVED INDUSTRY RµSSIA FACES SPECIAL AND INTRACTABLE PROBLEMS IN DEMOGRAPHICS ECOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND AGRICULTURE POST- SOVIET RUSSIA CANNOT NOW EVEN REPLACE ITS OWN POPULATION WITH STILL-DECLINING LIFE EXPECTANCY LOWER THAN IN SOME THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES FERTILITY RATES AND PUBLIC HEALTH EVEN WITH MIRACLES IN ALL THESE AREAS AND MIRACLES COST MONEY THE POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY'S WORKING POPULATION WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL WELL INTO THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY WITHOUT MIRACLES PUBLIC HEALTH WILL DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER WITH THE REALISTIC PROSPECT or MAJOR EPIDEMICS THE BRUTALIZATION OF NATURE IN THE NAME OF COMMUNIST HEROIC MATERIALISM LEFT RUSSIA A RAVAGED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL GET WORSE PROBABLY MUCH WORSE BEFORE RECTIFICATION CAN EVEN BEGIN MANY YEARS IN THE FUTURE IRONICALLY TODAY'S POOR INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE IS A COMPARATIVE BLESSING FOR THE COUNTRY' S AIR LAND AND WATER AS THE ECONOMY REVIVES THE DAMAGE WILL INCREASE ECONOMIC REVIVAL WILL DEPEND CRITICALLY ON TRANSPORTATION COMMUNICATIONS AND URBAN SERVICES ALL STARVED OF MAINTENANCE FUNDS AND REPLACJ MENTS FOR YEARS AND OFTEN IN NEED OF TOTAL RENEWAL THE INABILITY OF THE SOVIET CENTRAL PLAN TO MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES IS MOST APPARENT IN THE DISASTROUS STATE OF RAILWAY Page 15 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED COHFIDSH'i'Ihl5 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 122 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT TRANSPORT ESSENTIAL IN A COUNTRY OF RUSSIA'S SCALE AND GEOGRAPHY RESTORING THE RUSSIAN AGRICULTURAL SLUM TO A BREADBASKET WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE THAN PRIVATIZATION OF LAND ALL THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF MODERN PRIVATE AGRICULTURE MUST BE CREATED FROM SCRATCH WITH THE MORE DAUNTING TASK TO RECREATE THE SKILLS OF FARMING AND THE PASSION FOR THE LAND AMONG THE RURAL POPULATION WHICH SOVIET POLICIES DID THEIR VICIOUS BEST TO ERADICATE THE AGRICULTURAL REFORM EXPERIENCES OF EASTERN EUROPE AND CHINA ARE NOT ADEQUATE GUIDES BECAUSE THE RUSSIAN PROBLEM IS OF MUCH LONGER DURATION AND DEEPER IMPACT 42 THUS REFORM OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL OF NECEBSITY BE THE WOIU OF MANY YEARS THE RUSSIAN APPROACH TO THIS PROCESS WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM OUR OWN REFLECTING A BETTER APPRECIATION OF THEIR NEEDS AND SOCIETAL PREFERENCES IN FACING THE COLOSSAL MISTAKES OF THE SOVIET PERIOD RUSSIA CAN AND WILL FALL COHPIDBH'i'UJ SECTION 09 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 BACK ON TRADITIONS LONG PRE-DATING THE LENINIST STATE TRADITIONS AMENABLE AND SOMETIMES EVEN RATIONAL IN A RUSSIAN CONTEXT EVEN IF THEY DIFFER SHARPLY FROM AMERICAN- EXPERIENCE AND INCLINATION 43 AT THE HEART OF THE RUSSIAN APPROACH ARE THE REALITIES OF GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE ALL FAR NORTHERN COUNTRIES DIFFER FROM THEIR NEIGHBORS IN TEMPERATE CLIMATES IN IMPORTANT WAYS INCLUDING THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT LAND TENURE AND SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS IN MANY WAYS ALASKA HAS MORE IN COMMON WITH RUSSIA THAN WITH THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT STATES REFLECTING REASONABLE RESPONSES TO OBJECTIVE REALITIES OF LATITUDE AND CLIMATE IN RUSSIA GEOGRAPHY IS DESTINY AFFECTING EVERYTHING FROM ENERGY USE TO VITAMIN REQUIREMENTS TO FREIGHT TRANSPORT TO THE OPERATION OF co MMUNICATIONS SATELLITES ABOVE ALL LATITUDE AND TERRAIN PLACE THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE MUCH CLOSER TO THE LIMITS OF HUMAN SUBSISTENCE THAN MOST AMERICANS RECOGNIZE 44 TIME OUT OF MIND RUSSIAN SOCIETY HAS FAVORED A COMMUNITARIAN APPROACH TO DEALING WITH ITS PROBLEMS THIS PREFERENCE FOR COLLECTIVE OVER INDIVIDUAL DECISION-MAKING REFLECTS THE REALITIES OF A HOSTILE Page 1 6 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Au t omated Te legram Handler-E79 Item Subjec t UNCLASSIFIED COUFIDe f' I P L 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 123 0 6 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT CLIMATE AND OF A HOSTILE HISTORICAL ENVIRONMENT REALITIES AMERICAN INDIVIDUALISM HAS LARGELY BEEN SPARED AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL RUSSIANS HAVE ALWAYS OPTED FOR A STATIST APPROACH TO SETTING SOCIETAL PRIORITIES ADOPTING ASPECTS OF APPROPRIATE FOREIGN MODELS RANGING FROM MEDIEVAL BYZANTIUM TO MODERN FRANCE EVEN THE MOST CAPITALIST EPISODE IN RUSSIAN HISTORY THE END OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY WHEN TSARIST RULE LAVISHED OPPORTUNITIES ON FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC BUSINESS WAS ALSO MARKED BY STRONG STATE DIRECTION OF ECONOMIC PRIORITIES ANO FINANCING IF THE RUSSIANS HAVE A WESTERN INTELLECTUAL MENTOR IN ECONOMICS IT IS JEAN BAPTISTE COLBERT NOT ADAM SMITH -- NOR ARE THEY ALONE IN THE WORLD IN THIS CHOICE RUSSIANS WOULD HOWEVER HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY APPRECIATING THE VIEWS OF ALEXANDER HAMILTON AND HENRY CLAY ABOUT THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY 45 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE GROWTH OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS -- A CENTRAL FACTOR IN ANY TRANSITION FROM AUTHORITARIAN TO REPRESENATIVE GOVERNMENT -- WILL DIFFER IN RUSSIA FROM THE EXPERIENCE OF MANY OTHER COUNTRIES LARGELY DUE TO RUSSIA'S SOVIET PAST FOR MOST OF THIS CENTURY PUBLIC POLICY IN RUSSIA WAS MADE IN THEORY ON THE BASIS OF MARXIST ECONOMIC DETERMINISM IN REALITY ECONOMICS WAS THE CAPTIVE SERVANT OF POLITICAL POWER AND MOST STATE POLICIES WERE LARGELY DEVOID OF ECONOMIC LOGIC POST-SOVIET RUSSIA REFLECTS -- AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT -- THIS INVERTED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MATERIAL AND THE POLITICAL IN MOST WESTERN SOCIETIES THE OWNERSHIP AND USE OF PRIVATE PROPERTY PRECEDED DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND INDEED OFTEN GAVE BIRTH TO THE IMPULSE FOR POLITICAL LIBERTY IN CONTEMPORARY RUSSIA THE OPPOSITE IS THE CASE THE SOVIET SYSTEM FAILED ON THE POLITICAL LEVEL BEFORE ITS ECONOMIC SHORTCOMINGS BECAME CRITICAL THE COLLAPSE OF SOVIET POWER IN 1991 WAS THE RESULT or A LOSS OF LEGITIMACY AND or POLITICAL WILL NOT OF ECONOMIC BREAKDOWN UN LOYMENT OR HUNGER IN THE YEARS AHEAD THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXPANSION OF PRIVATE PROPERTY IN RUSSIA AND THE EVOLUTION OF ITS DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS WILL BE COMPLEX TO SOME EXTENT INTERLOCKING AND REINrORCING TO SOME EXTENT INDEPENDENT AND EVEN COMPETITIVE IN CONTRAST TO MOST WESTERN SOCIETIES IN RUSSIA THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OF CAUSALITY WILL BE FROM THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL REALMS TOWARD THE ECONOMIC RATHER THAN THE REVERSE 46 PRIVATE PROPERTY IN RUSSIA WILL ALWAYS COEXIST WITH A DOMINEERING IF NOT DOMINANT PUBLIC SECTOR Pag e 1 7 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED eOHFIBBU'fIAL POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject 09 12 2024 03 28 94 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT THE CURRENT RAPID INCREASE IN PRIVATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS A TRIBUTE TO THE VAST GAPS IN THE STATE-DIRECTED SECTORS BUT DOES NOT PORTEND THE END OF THOSE SECTORS IN OUR LIFETIMES THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL BE MARKET ORIENTED OR MARKET LED AT BEST NEW ENTERPRISE CAN FILL A VITAL ROLE IN PROVIDING SOURCES OF EMPLOYMENT TO ABSORB LAYOFFS FROM FEATHERBEDDED STATE INDUSTRIES BUT WHILE THE PRIVATE ECONOMY WILL CERTAINLY BE ALMOST THE SOLE CREATOR OF NEW JOBS IT WILL NOT REPLACE THE OLD OUTMODED INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES AS THE MAINSTAY OF MOST URBAN AREAS EVEN THE PRIVATIZATION OF LARGE-SCALE INDUSTRY WILL NOT ALTER THIS REALITY AS PRIVATIZATION REPRESENTS MORE THE BREAKDOWN OF CENTRAL AUTHORITY LONG OVERDUE THAN THE CREATION OF GENUINE PRIVATE CAPITAL AND OFTEN UNFORTUNATELY OF LOCAL KLEPTOCRACY THIS IS NOT OOHFIBBH'PIA E SECTION 10 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 ENTIRELY BAD NEWS AS PRIVATIZATION OF INDUSTRY WILL AT LEAST SHIFT DECISION-MAKING MUCH CLOSER TO THE PRODUCTION LINE THAN EVER IN THE SOVIET ERA AND WILL INTRODUCE A WELCOME AND NECESSARY ELEMENT OF ACCOUNTABILITY INTO MUCH OF THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY THIS IS NOT HOWEVER CAPITALISM OR THE MARKET IN ANY SENSE WE KNOW THEM X 47 SADLY VERY FEW OF THE MULTITUDES OF AMERICAN ADVISORS IN RUSSIA SINCE THE BOLSHEVIK DEMISE ACQUAINTED THEMSELVES WITH EVEN THE MOST BASIC FACTS OF THE COUNTRY WHOSE DESTINY THEY PROPOSED TO SHAPE AS A RESULT TO SAY THAT AMERICA IS WEARING OUT ITS WELCOME IN RUSSIA IS NO LONGER A PREDICTION IT IS DESCRIPTIVE FACT EVEN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND SYMPATHETIC OF RUSSIAN OFFICIALS HAVE LOST PATIENCE WITH THE ENDLESS PROCESSION OF WHAT THEY CALL ASSISTANCE TOURISTS WHO RARELY BOTHER TO ASK THEIR HOSTS FOR AN APPRAISAL OF RUSSIAN NEEDS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE BASIC APPROACH UNDERLYING THE MARSHALL PLAN RUSSIANS OF ALL POLITICAL PERSUASIONS ARE ALSO LESS THAN CHARMED BY THE FREQUENTLY-EXPRESSED AMERICAN ATTITUDE THAT THEIR COUNTRY IS A SOCIAL-ECONOMIC LABORATORY TO TEST ACADEMIC THEORIES I ' THERE IS ONE THING RUSSIANS LEARNED TO DISTRUST IN SEVENTY-FOUR YEARS or SOCIALISM IT IS ECONOMIC THEORY AND THEORISTS 48 Page 124 FOREIGNERS WHETHER OF 'ICIALS OR BUSINESSMEN ARE Page 18 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED COUFIBBH'i'I ' L 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 125 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT JUSTIFIED IN COMPLAINING OF THE DIFFICULTIES IN GETTING ANYTHING DONE IN RUSSIA HOWEVER THE SERIOUS FOREIGNERS -- THOSE INTERESTED IN LONG-TERM RELATIONS AND WHO CAN LISTEN AS WELL AS SPEAK -- ARE OFTEN DOING QUITE WELL AND LOOK TO DO EVEN BETTER OVER THE LONG HAUL MANY AMERICAN BUSINESSMEN QUALIFY AS SERIOUS AND ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE PRESENCE OUR COUNTRY HAS IN RUSSIA UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE EFFORTS DO NOT MEET THESE CRITERIA 49 ACKNOWLEDGING THA WE SUPPORT A NUMBER OF POSITIVE AND WORTHWHILE PROGRAMS PARTICULARLY EXCHANGES AND SMALL-SCALE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE IT IS NONETHELESS A SAD TRUTH THAT UNITED STATES ASSISTANCE IN RUSSIA HAS BECOME A NET DETRIMENT TO THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP FOR THREE MAJOR REASONS -- FIRST WE HAVE BADLY OVERSOLD AN ASSISTANCE PROGRAM COMPOSED FOR THE MOST PART OF FINANCIAL INTANGIBLES AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE THE RESULT IS THAT VERY FEW RUSSIANS HAVE SEEN ANYTHING AT ALL OF THE VAUNTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN AMERICAN AID AND MOST SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THE MONEY EVER EXISTED -- SECOND MUCH OF THE ASSISTANCE MONEY NEVER LEFT OUR SHORES OR EVER ENTERED RUSSIAN HANDS OUR AID PROGRAMS ARE OFTEN OF BENEFIT MOSTLY TO DOMESTIC CONTRACTORS BUT IN RUSSIA THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY BAD COMPOUNDING THE PERCEPTION PROBLEM -- THIRD OUR ASSISTANCE EFFORTS HAVE THEMSELVES OFTEN BECOME FRICTION POINTS WITH THE RUSSIANS BOTH BECAUSE OF THE INTRUSIVE CHARACTER OF SOME PROGRAMS AND BECAUSE OF OUR INSISTENT HABIT OF LINKING ASSISTANCE WITH RUSSIAN ACTIONS IN OTHER SPHERES ON ISSUES RANGING FROM RUSSIAN TROOPS IN THE BALTICS TO CRYOGENIC ROCKET ENGINES TO THE AMES CASE TO THE RUSSIAN STATE LIBRARY'S HOLDINGS O ' HEBRAICA WE HAVE CREATED OR COMPOUNDED DISPUTES THROUGH THE MEDIUM or ASSISTANCE INDEED OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP HAS OFTEN BEEN DOMINATED BY PROBLEMS WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE EXISTED OR WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS DIFFICULT WITHOUT A LINK TO ASSISTANCE 50 WE HAVE REACHED A POINT WHERE IT IS ARGUABLE THAT THE BEST SERVICE OUR AID PROGRAM COULD NOW SERVE WOULD BE TO PEmIT BORIS YELTSIN PUBLICLY TO TELL AMERICA TO TAKE ITS MONEY AND SHOVE IT SUCH AN ACTION WOULD AT LEAST BUY THE EMBATTLED RUSSIAN PRESIDENT SOME BREATHING ROOM AT HOME THIS IS WHAT YELTSIN PROBABLY WILL DO IF WE ACTUALLY CUT OFF ASSISTANCE FOR ANY 0 ' Page 19 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Tel egram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED COH 'IeJeHTIAI 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 126 0 6 3 7 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT THE MYRIAD REASONS NOW THREATENING THE SHARP DECLINE IN ASSISTANCE LEVELS IN COMING YEARS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE RUSSIANS TO RENOUNCE OUR HELP ALTHOUGH AT REAL COST TO THE ATMOSPHERE OF THE RELATIONSHIP IN THE LONG RUN OUR RELATIONS WILL BE HEALTHIER WITHOUT GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED AID IN THE NEAR TERM WE SHOULD CONSIDER HOW TO BRING THE ASSISTANCE ASPECTS OF OUR RUSSIA POLICY TOWARD A SOFT LANDING XI COtfFIBBtf'fili SECTION 11 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 51 EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DO MUCH GOOD FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WE CAN AND SHOULD FOCUS OUR ATTENTION WHERE OUR INTERESTS ARE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN RUSSIAN CONDUCT OUTSIDE ITS BORDERS FORTUNATELY THE BREAKUP OF THE SOVIET UNION EFFECTIVELY PREVENTS CONTINUATION OF GLOBAL RIVALRY WITH THE UNITED STATES OR SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO OUR INTERESTS BEYOND THE EURASIAN LANDMASS USE OF THE TERM THE WORLD SUPERPOWER BY MANY DIPLOMATS TO REFER TO THE UNITED STATES REFLECTS THIS REALITY NONETHELESS RUSSIAN BEHAVIOR CAN STILL BE OF GREAT IMPORTANCE TO OUR BENEFIT OR HINDRANCE WHILE SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD WELCOME RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO OUR OWN AS WAS RECENTLY SHOWN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND IN BOSNIA WHERE AN ACTIVE RUSSIAN PRESENCE AS THE LEADING ORTHODOX STATE IS ESSENTIAL TO ANY EFFORT AT CONFLICT RESOLUTION ALONG THE FAULT LINE BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN CHRISTIANITY 52 THE AREA WHERE RUSSIA CAN AND WILL EXERCISE THE MOST INFLUENCE FOR GOOD OR ILL IS THE SO-CALLED NEAR ABROAD THIS TERM MASKS THE COMPLEXITY OF RUSSIAN POLICY TOWARD THE STATES OF ITS FORMER EMPIRE IMPLYING A UNIFIED AND MONOLITHIC APPROACH IN FACT RUSSIA UNDER CZARS AND BOLSHEVIKS ALWAYS DIFFERENTIATED ITS NEIGHBORS ALTERING POLICIES TO FIT LOCAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS A BROAD GENERALIZATION RUSSIANS REGARD THE BALTIC NATIONS WITH RESPECT AND ENVY THE BELARUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS WITH FRATERNAL POSSESSIVENESS AND THE CENTRAL ASIANS AND CAUCASIANS WITH A CONTEMPT OFTEN TINGED WITH RACISM THE ATTITUDES or THE STATES OF THE NEAR ABROAD· THEMSELVES AND THEIR BEHAVIOR TOWARD MOSCOW ALSO WILL FORM A MOSAIC RATHER THAN A SINGLE PICTURE 53 WHAT ALL THESE STATES HAVE IN COMMON IS THE REALITY THAT RUSSIA WILL ALWAYS BE THE DOMINANT Pag e 20 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED COHrIBEl f'fIM 09 12 2024 03 28 9 4 Page 127 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT EXTERNAL PRESENCE IN THEIR LIVES SIMPLE SIZE AND PROXIMITY DEMAND PRIDE OF PLACE FOR RUSSIA IN THEIR ESTIMATIONS OF SELF-INTEREST MUCH AS THE STATES OF WEST AFRICA LOOK TOWARD PARI S OR THE COUNTRIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE TOWARD WASHINGTON THE STATES OF THE FORMER RUSSIAN EMPIRE REGARD MOSCOW WITH A COMBINATION OF NEED AND UNEASE THIS IS THE DESTINY OF SMALL STATES AS EDUARD SHEVARDNADZE RECENTLY GLOOMILY ACKNOWLEDGED MOST OF RUSSIA'S NEIGHBORS NOT ONLY OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION WOULD IDENTIFY EASILY WITH PORFIRIO DIAZ WHO SUMMED UP HIS OWN COUNTRY'S GEOGRAPHIC DILEMMA POOR MEXICO SO FAR FROM GOD AND SO CLOSE TO THE UNITED STATES 54 AS WITH ALL FORMER IMPERIAL STATES RUSSIA WILL BE AS MUCH OR MORE INFLUENCED BY ITS FORMER SUBJECTS AS THEY BY RUSSIA CULTURALLY RUSSIA FEARS ISOLATION IF THE WEST PREFERS HER WESTERN NEIGHBORS ETHNICALLY RUSSIA IS PERMEATED WITH NATIONALS OF ITS FORMER SUBJECTS ECONOMICALLY RUSSIA IS MUTUALLY DEPENDENT ON THESE COUNTRIES AND DOES MUCH OF ITS BUSINESS WITH THEM AND THROUGH THEM TO THE WORLD BEYOND IN SECURITY TERMS RUSSIA WORRIES THAT CONFLICTS IN THE NEAR ABROAD ESPECIALLY AMONG ITS ISLAMIC NEIGHBORS WILL ENDANGER ITS OWN TERRITO Y POLITICALLY THE MOST DANGEROUS AND UNSTABLE ELEMENT OF RUSSIA'S POPULATION IS THE GROWING NUMBER OF ETHNIC RUSSIAN REFUGEES FROM THE FO R SOVIET REPUBLICS AT LEAST TWO MILLION POTENTIALLY A POOL OF RADICAL AND ULTRA- NATIONALIST SENTIMENT SIMILAR TO THE FRENCH-ALGERIAN PIED NOIRS OR GERMAN VOLKSDEUTSCHE IN ALL RESPECTS RUSSIA CANNOT IGNORE THESE COUNTRIES AND WILL INTERACT WITH THEM TO AN EXTENT WE NEVER SHALL 55 IN PRACTICE RUSSIA'S RELATIONS WITH HER NEIGHBORS WILL BE AS MESSY AS THOSE OF ANY FORMER IMPERIAL POWER WITH ITS FORMER SUBJECTS TUR KEY IN THE MIDEAST AND BALKANS FRANCE IN AFRICA JAPAN IN THE FAR EAST SOME PARTS or THE NEAR ABROAD WILL BE SUNK IN ETHNIC AND OTHER CONFLICTS FOR YEARS IF NOT GENERATIONS SOME or THE PRESENT BORDERS MAY NOT LAST LONG AS THEY ARE THE PRODUCT OF STALINIST DIVIDE-AND-RULE POLICIES MANY PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR INDEPENDENCE fROM MOSCOW IN THE REFERENDA OF LATE 1991 DID SO IN EXPECTATION THAT INDEPENDENCE WOULD EQUATE WITH PROSPERITY IN SOME OF THE NEW STATES THIS EXPECTATION HAS GIVEN WAY TO THE BITTER RECOGNITION THAT RUSSIA HAS DONE A BETTER JOB THAN MOST IN PRESERVING LIVING STANDARDS RECENT EVENTS IN BELARUS CRIMEA EASTERN UKRAINE GEORGIA AND ELSEWHERE POINT TO AN INCREASING INCLINATION TO RESTORE SOME OF THE SOVIET-ERA ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS WITH Page 21 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED eOHFIDl IU I I 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 128 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT CONSEQUENT POLITICAL TENSIONS WITHIN THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES AND TURMOIL IN THEIR RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA COUFIDeiHTlA f SECTION 12 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 56 THE KEY ISSUE FOR STABILITY WITHIN THE FORMER SOVIET DOMAIN IS THE STATUS AND WELL-BEING OF THE TWENTY-FIVE MILLION ETHNIC RUSSIANS BEYOND THE BORDERS OF THE FEDERATION THE KEY COUNTRY IS UKRAINE HOME TO ABOUT HALF OF THEM DESPITE CONSIDERABLE BICKERING OVER MORE THAN TWO YEARS THE GOVERNMENTS IN MOSCOW AND KIEV HAVE WORKED HARD TO PREVENT DISPUTES BECOMING CONFLICTS AND HAVE DEALT FAIRLY RESPONSIBLY WITH ISSUES RANGING FROM NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO THE BLACK SEA FLEET AND ITS BASES TO TERMS OF TRADE NONETHELESS FEW RUSSIANS EVEN BEGIN TO COMPREHEND THE DEPTH OF NATIONAL FEELING AMONG ETHNIC UKRAINIANS OR THE HOSTILITY TOWARD MOSCOW IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UKRAINE RUSSIAN ARROGANCE TOWARD THE LITTLE RUSSIANS AND TOWARD THE WNITE RUSSIANS FOR THAT MATTER IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVAILING ATTITUDE OF CZECHS TOWARD SLOVAKS WITH AN UNDERSTANDABLE HUMAN REACTION AMONG THE RECIPIENTS THE DANGER IS THAT RUSSIANS WILL FEEL SYMPATHY IF THE PREDOMINATELY ETHNIC RUSSIAN CRIMEA AND EASTERN UKRAINE SHOULD SEEK TO REJOIN THE RUSSIAN MOTHERLAND CRIMEA AND THE EASTE SALIENT OF UKRAINE ARE BY FAR THE MOST DANGEROUS POTENTIAL CONFLICT ZONES OF THE FORMER SOVIET EMPIRE DWARFING THE LOCALIZED CONFLICTS IN THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA IN IMPORTANCE 57 WHETHER THE COMPARATIVE RUSSIAN RESTRAINT OF THE PAST TWO YEARS TOWARD ITS NEIGHBORS WILL ENDURE WILL DEPEND ON THE CHALLENGES RUSSIA FACES FROM THEM THE INTERPLAY WILL NOT BE EASY NOR WILL IT FIT THE STEREOTYPICAL WESTERN VIEW or A REBIRTH OF RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM RUSSIANS ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM VIEW THEIR NEIGHBORS AND FORMER SUBJECTS WITH VARYING PERSPECTIVES BUT WITH A MARKED LACK OF ENTHUSIASM YELTSIN'$ RECENT TREATY WITH GEORGIA SEEN BY MANY IN THE WEST AS NASCENT NEC-IMPERIALISM WAS DEAD ON ARRIVAL IN THE DUMA AMONG ALL FACTIONS FROM GAYDAR THROUGH ZHIRINOVSKIY SIMILARLY THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUNDSWELL OF SUPPORT FOR THE PROPOSED CURRENCY UNION WITH BELARUS OR FOR THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT IN CRIMEA WHY THE CAUTION EVERYONE SEES THE PROBLEMS AND THE RISKS· AND WANTS TO KNOW THE PRICE TAG THE PREVAILING MOOD IN MOSCOW TOWARD NEC-IMPERIALISM FOR Page 22 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED GOHFIBBH'i'IAL 09 12 2024 03 28 94 Page 129 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT NOW IS CAVEAT EMPTOR XII 58 THE OTHER STATES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION CERTAINLY CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO EVALUATE THEIR NEIGHBORING COLOSSUS IN OTHER THAN ANXIOUS TERMS EXPERIENCED AS THEY ALL ARE WITH THE CARNIVOROUS TRADITIONS OF THE RUSSIAN BEAR MUST RUSSIA NOW BEHAVE AS IT DID IN THE PAST IF WE REGARD A REBIRTH OF RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM AS INEVITABLE THE UNITED STATES WILL BE EFFECTIVELY LEFT WITH NO CREATIVE RUSSIAN POLICY BECAUSE A RENEWED RUSSIAN EMPIRE WILL REQUIRE AN AUTHORITARIAN AND NON-DEMOCRATIC RUSSIAN HOMELAND DEMOCRATIC IMPERIALISM WAS NO GREAT SUCCESS EVEN FOR THE BRITISH AND IS CERTAINLY BEYOND RUSSIAN CAPACITIES OUR STRATEGY WOULD THEN BE LIMITED TO A RESUMPTION OF CONTAINMENT ON DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIC LINES WITH THE CONSEQUENT RESUMPTION or AMERICAN-RUSSIAN MUTUAL HOSTILITY AND A POTENTIAL RENEWAL OF THE THERMONUCLEAR BALANCE OF TERROR 59 SUCH A DISMAL COURSE OF EVENTS IS NOT INEVITABLE THE TWENTIETH CENTURY PROVIDES NUMEROUS OBJECT LESSONS IN LOSS OF EMPIRE BY STATES LONG ACCUSTOMED TO EXERCISE DOMINION OVER THEIR NEIGHBORS AND TERRITORIES FURTHER AFIELD INDEED OUR EXTERNAL AGENDA TODAY IS DOMINATED BY THE PROBLEMS CREATED BY IMPERIAL BREAKUP BOSNIA SOMALIA CUBA PALESTINE IRAQ -- TO NAME JUST A FEW BUT NOT BY THE FORMER IMPERIAL STATES THEMSELVES MOST OF WHOM ARE PROSPEROUS DEMOCRACIES WELL-DISPOSED TOWARD THE UNITED STATES REGARDLESS OF THEIR PREVIOUS POLITICAL SYSTEMS WHILE NO STATE GAVE UP ITS EXTERNAL REALM WITHOUT REGRETS THE EASE OF THE TRANSITION AND THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL IMPACT OF LOSS or EMPIRE WERE ALWAYS CRITICALLY INFLUENCED BY THE POLICIES or THE DOMINANT WESTERN POWERS THE RISE OF EUROPEAN FASCISM WAS EQUALLY THE RESULT OF LOST EMPIRES AND or POLICIES DESIGNED TO HUMBLE THE FORMER IMPERIAL METROPOLES 60 THE EXPERIENCE or OUR RELATIONS WITH POST-OTTOMAN TURKEY ILLUSTRATES THE PATH OUR POLICY TOWARD POST-SOVIET RUSSIA SHOULD TAKE DESPITE PERSISTENT DIFFICULTIES IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEMS AND A TRADITION OF AUTHORITARIAN GOVERNMENT MOD RN TURKEY HAS BEEN A MAJOR SUCCESS 'OR AMERICAN POST-WAR FOREIGN POLICY WE MIGHT ALSO RECALL THAT EVEN SUCH A DARLING OF THE WESTERN FINANCIAL COMMUNITY AS TURGUT OZAL EMPLOYED STRONGLY 80N 'I9l tf'l'l M Page 23 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED 03 28 94 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject 09 12 2024 Page 130 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT SECTION 13 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 STATIST METHODS OF ECONOMIC CONTROL AND ENGAGED IN HIGHLY INFLATIONARY PUBLIC FINANCING DESPITE SOME CONTINUING FRICTIONS BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND ANKARA THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST CONSISTENTLY BENEFICIAL OF OUR FAR-FLUNG ALLIANCES WITH TURKEY EXERTING A STABILIZING INFLUENCE IN A DANGEROUS PART OF THE WORLD RESTRAINING THE IRREDENTIST TENDENCIES OF SEVERAL OF ITS NEIGHBORS AND GIVING THE UNITED STATES SOLID SUPPORT WHEN IT COUNTED BOTH RUSSIANS AND TURKS WOULD REJECT THE COMPARISON BUT THE PARALLELS ARE SIGNIFICANT BOTH ARE POST-IMPERIAL STATES SPANNING EUROPE AND ASIA EACH WITH RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL TRADITIONS AT ODDS WITH THOSE OF WESTERN EUROPE EACH REJECTING THE TERRITORIAL AND RELIGIOUS IDEOLOGICAL CLAIMS OF ITS PREDECESSOR EACH SEEKING ACCEPTANCE BY THE WEST WHILE PRESERVING ITS OWN EURASIAN IDENTITY 61 AS IN REPUBLICAN TURKEY IN POST-SOVIET RUSSIA ATTITUDES TOWARD THE NEAR ABROAD TEND TO PARALLEL VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY AND RELATIONS WITH THE WEST WHILE FEW RUSSIANS REGARD THE LOSS OF EMPIRE AS AN UNALLOYED GOOD THOSE RUSSIANS WHO RECALL THE FORMER UNION AS RUSS IA'S BURDEN TEND TO BE THOSE MOST FAVORABLY DISPOSED TOWARD REFORM WHILE THOSE WHO HARKEN BACK TO THE EMPIRE·AS RUSSIA'S GLORY ARE ALSO NOSTALGIC FOR THE AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEM AND MILITARY POWER WHICH SUSTAINED THE EMPIRE THUS SUPPORT FOR VIABLE DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA IS THE BEST SUPPORT WE CAN GIVE TO THE STATES OF THE NEAR ABROAD AND CERTAINLY A BETTER POLICY FOR THE UNITED STATES THAN AN EFFORT TO CONSTRUCT AN EIGHTEENTH CENTURY-STYLE CORDON SANITAIRE AROUND RUSSIA AS SOME HAVE ADVOCATED COMPOSED OF STATES WHICH FAIL OTHER THAN PERHAPS THE BALTS TO MEET THE STANDARDS TO WHICH WE HOLD RUSSIA XIII 62 THERE WILL INEVITABLY BE DOMESTIC REFLECTIONS OF ITS EXTERNAL POLICY WITHIN RUSSIA WE WILL NOT LIKE CHIEF AMONG THESE WILL BE THE USE OF RUSSIAN NATIONALISM BY ALL POLITICAL FACTIONS INCLUDING DEMOCRATS AS A UNIFYING FORCE IN THE EVOLVING POLITICAL SYSTEM WITH THE BANKRUPTCY or THE SOVIET POWER STRUCTURE AND ITS IDEOLOGY RUSSIA IS A SOCIETY BADLY IN NEED OF THE RESTORATION or SOME KIND OF ETHICAL CENTER MUCH OF THE ALIENATION OF VOTERS FROM THE POLITICAL PROCESS IS THE RESULT OF THE ETHICAL VACUUM IN WHICH POLITICAL DEBATE TAKES PLACE PART or Page 24 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 UNCLASSIFIED OOHFIB8H'i'I AL POEMS Automa t ed Te leg r am Hand ler-E79 Item Subject 09 12 2024 0 3 28 94 Page 131 06 3 7 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT ZHIRINOVSKIY'S SUCCESS AMONG YOUNG AND DISAFFECTED WORKING-CLASS VOTERS WAS HIS WILLINGNESS TO VIOLATE THE TABOOS OF DEMOCRACY AND PROCLAIM THEIR FRUSTRATIONS PUBLICLY IRONICALLY BORIS YELTSIN IS HIMSELF THE ULTIMATE TABOO-BREAKER OF MODERN RUSSIA ESTABLISHING MOST OF HIS POPULAR CREDIBILITY THROUGH HIS WILLINGNESS AS A MEMBER OF THE CPSU POLITBURO TO PROCLAIM OPENLY THAT THE PARTY WAS MORALLY NAKED 63 THE CHALLENGE FOR YELTSIN AND FOR OTHER DEMOCRATS IS TO COUNTER THE SURGE OF DESTRUCTIVE NEGATIVISM WITHIN RUSSIAN SOCIETY THE SUBSTITUTE FOR IDEOLOGY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NATIONALISM WITH A STRONG TIE TO THE ORTHODOX CHURCH AS NOTED ABOVE ALMOST NO RUSSIANS IMBUE THE MARKET WITH POSITIVE ETHICAL DIMENSIONS I F LINKED TO CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY AND TO THE STEADY GROWTH OF REPRESENTATIVE INSTITUTIONS RUSSIAN NATIONALISM CAN BECOME A POSITIVE FORCE AS PATRIOTISM AND NATIONAL FEELING ARE IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES DIVORCED FROM DEMOCRACY RUSSIAN NATIONALISM WILL BECOME A TERROR XIV 64 FOR THE UNITED STATES TO BE IN A POSITION TO ENCOURAGE RES TRAINT AND RESPONSIBILITY IN RUSSIAN EXTERNAL POLICY WILL REQUIRE CORRESPONDING RESTRAINT ON OUR PART TOWARD RUSSIAN -INTERNAL POLICY PARTICULARLY IN THE ECONOMIC FIELD WE ARE FORCED TO CHOOSE IS OUR PRIORITY IN RUSSIA FLEDGLING DEMOCRACY OR MARKET ECONOMICS IN THE YEARS REMAINING IN THIS CENTURY WE CANNOT HAVE BOTH DESPITE SHALLOW ROOTS IN RUSSIA DEMOCRACY ENJOYS A DEGREE OF PUBLIC APPROBATION WHICH THE MARKET DOES NOT SKEPTICAL AS THEY AR OF THEIR POLITICIANS RUSSIANS FOR THE MOST PART 00 WANT THEIR COUNTRY TO BE A DEMOCRACY OF SOME KIND IN THAT VAGUE ANO INCHOATE ASPIRATION LIES THE BASIS FOR A SUCCESSFUL LONG-TERM PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES AND FOR A COMPARATIVELY BENIGN RUSSIAN OUTLOOK ON THE WORLD -IF THEY AND WE DON' T FORCE OTHER REFORMS FASTER THAN OBJECTIVE RUSSIAN CONDITIONS ALLOW LATE LAST YEAR THE RUSSIAN RADICAL REFORMERS IMPOSED A COMPLEX FOREIGN ELECTORAL SYSTEM THE GERMAN ONTO AN UNPREPARED ELECTORATE AND PRODUCED A PREDICTABLE SHAMBLES TO lONFID lHi'iltt SECTION 14 OF 15 MOSCOW 8427 IMPOSE A COMPLEX FOREIGN MARKET ECONOMIC SYSTEM ONTO AN Page 25 FL-2017-13804 B-00002630155 POEMS Automated Telegram Handler-E79 Item Subject UNCLASSIFIED OOUPIBl H' I 09 1 2 2024 03 28 94 Page 132 06 37 pm WHOSE RUSSIA IS IT ANYWAY TOWARD A POLICY OF BENIGN RESPECT UNPREPARED SOVIET-ERA STRUCTU RE WILL PRODUCE ALSO PREDICTABLY AN EVEN GREATER SHAMBLES 65 THE KEY TO A CONSTRUCTIVE AMERICAN ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE GROWTH OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY IS MUTUAL RESPECT THE RESERVOIR OF GOODWILL WHICH OVERWHELMED AMERICANS AT THE COLLAPSE OF SOVIET POWER IS NOT YET EMPTY BUT HAS BECOME DANGEROUSLY SHALLOW SOME OF THAT LOSS IS THE RESULT OF EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS OF WHAT THE WEST AND AMERICA WOULD AND COULD DO FOR RUSSIA SOME OF THE LOSS HOWEVER IS THE PRODUCT OF OUR OWN INTRUSIVE IF WELL-INTENTIONED EFFORTS TO DEFINE SUCCESS FOR RUSSIA IN TERMS APPROPRIATE FOR OUR OWN COUNTRY WHILE VERY FEW RUSSIANS REGRET THE PASSING OF THE COLD WAR OR WISH TQ RESUME AN ADVERSARIAL STANCE TOWARD THE UNITED STATES EQUALLY FEW APPRECIATE THE MISSIONARY ZEAL OR THE SUPERIOR TONE WHICH PERVADE OUR MONOLOGUE TOWARD THEM 66 THE RUSSIAN STANDARD OF SUCCESS AND FAILURE IN ANY UNDERTAKING -- ECONOMIC POLITICAL SOCIAL -- IS NOT THE SAME AS THE AMERICAN THE AMERICAN NATIONAL EXPERIENCE A SINGULARLY FAVORED ONE IS - DOMINATED BY THE THEME AND REALITY OF SUCCESS TO THE EXTENT THAT SUCCESS HAS BECOME THE FALSE DEITY OF OUR SOCIETY THE RUSSIAN NATIONAL EXPERIENCE AN ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT ONE HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY PAIN AND BY THE MEMORY AND EXPECTATION OF TRAGEDY TO THE RUSSIAN MIND OUR OBSESSION WITH GOALS AND GOAL-FULFILLMENT IS PECULIAR AT BEST AT TIMES OFFENSIVE 67 ONE MIGHT ASK WHY WE SHOULD SHOW RESPECT FOR A COUNTRY WHICH HAS INFLICTED UPON ITSELF SO MANY FAILURES OVER SO MANY YEARS WE SHOULD DO SO FIRST BECAUSE RESPECT IS THE APPROPRIATE MEDIUM OF INTERCHANGE WITH ANY EMERGING DEMOCRACY POSSESSING THIRTY THOUSAND THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS SECOND WE SHOULD BECAUSE MANY RUSSIANS ESPECIALLY AMONG THE YOUNG RECOGNIZE THEIR FAILURES AND WERE THEMSELVES THE VICTORS OVER THE COMMUNIST REGIME FINALLY WE SHOULD SHOW RESPECT BECAUSE RUSSIA IS THEIR COUNTRY TO DO WITH AS THEY SEE FIT THE MORE SO AS WE ARE NOT PREPARED TO MATCH OUR ADVICE WITH MONEY xv 68 THERE IS A GROWING TREND IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRATIC REFORMERS WHO SHATTERED THE ICONS OF SOVIET POWER IN POLAND LITHUAN'IA AND BELARUS WE HAVE SEEN FATIGUE WITH THE HUMAN IMPACT OF REFORMS DELAY AND POTENTIALLY REVERSE IMPORTANT Page 26