Statementfor the Record Dr Rod Schoonover Senior Analyst Bureau of Intelligence and Research Department ofState Hearing on ‘The NationalSecurity Implications ofClimate Change Before the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence USS House of Representatives June 5 2019 UNCLASSIFIED Chairman Sehif Ranking Member Nunes and distinguished members ofthe Committee thank you forinviting me to speak with you today on the national security implicationsof climate khange ‘As aUS inteligenceofficer inthe Department of State ButeaofInelignce and Research it sy jo to provide clear objectivepndindependent analysis topolcymakersto advance US national secur objectives As scientist inthe intelligence community IC blendinsights derived from poe reviewed joumal articles anothecent reportswithinformation gathered from dally ntligence reporting oprovide science-informed national security analysis My undersandingofthis and other issues is deepened by thecare ofaonted and dedicatedofficers inthe IC many with technical expertise who quilly serve US interests This Comitei already aware thathe IC doesnot advocate for any particularset ofpolicies includingthose that address climate change ‘The Bottom Line Fundamental characteristics ofthe global imate are moving outside the bounds experienced inhuman history and there is uncertainty on hove some aspects ofthe climate will evolve Given the complex social and political contestin which a multitude ofchanges are ocurting however wecanexpect new and compounded stresses on pcople and sacetes around the word many with outomes importantfornational security Climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security over the next 20 years through global perturbationsincreased risk of political instability heightened tensions between countries for resources a growing number oflimat-inked humanitariancriss emergent geostetegic competitive domains a adverse effects on militaries Increasingly probable amalgamationsofthese security concems ae especially worrisome Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state fale in thenext few decades bat it will affect factors that that contribute to conflict sch a acestonatural resources People will increasingly decide to move because ofleteriorating conditions both within nationsand into countiesthat are more prosperous Perhapsmost importantly theapiof concurrent and compounded changesto Earth's systems from human and natural causes heightens the iskfor unwelcome and possibly severe climatelinked surprises Framework for Analysis ‘The IC’s task with respect to climate changei to inform policymakers of the myriad risks and tiesthat may lic ahead ratherthan trying to predict the future We have therefore examined a wide range ofclimate change effects including those currently believed to have low probability particularly ifthe ramifications could be highly impactful The IC focuses onsecurity considerations ‘outside the United States so we donot address the direct effectsofclimate change on the U S homeland We expect however that many judgements could nonetheless apply tothe United States ‘Commented 83ME NSC Comment There could be rational security implications of mat chonge but you wort id a scenic assessment of them in his testimony Cooling in northern Europe was one ofthe factors tat dove Germanicbes into theRoman ‘empie and astend its calla Aneven more rarmatic cooingand drying the42 kioyear event coincdedwith the the demize of the Eatin Old Kingdom the Alkan erie in Mesopotamia the collapse ofthe indusVay elation and other Aisroptions around the word So indeed ciate ehange can affect human society but every historical instancewas romcooing not warm ‘Commented BJME2 NSC Convent Thisie not ‘objective testimony at al it inclodeslt f cate alarm propaganda hats notsenceat al1am ‘mbarassed to have this go outon behalf the Executive Branchofthe Federal Goverment ‘Commented BIME3 NSC Comment No theres nothingexceptional about curent cate and tie ‘rofoundly incorrect wo say that characteristics of ‘bal cimate are moving outside the Bounds experienced in human sto” There was faster and sreter Medieval warring around the yea 100 when Nrse seed southern Greenland anddeveloped 3 ‘thriving greta oct Commented 3ME4 NSC Commi Fst sentence reads asif imate change the primary causal event bute sentence says cimateehangesloeis nly to tigger state faire and wil exacerbate existing condions Unsure what hie bottom ine hee ‘Commented BIMES NSC Comment le thie imate conden gneral “inhospitable now eterirating’conditions ‘Commented BIMEGNSC Conment These nothing unusually rapid about the very modest ‘warming that has occured in he pas century The Medieval warming mentioned above was more ‘ences UNCLASSIFIED For is anny we consider an event a matonal secur once when Produces notceabie even I tmporry degradation of ore ofthe elements of US national power geopttial mltary economic formatnal soa eshesion Indecty intuences the United Sates trougha sttepcaly pecanlor partner Causes adverse effects thatindirect conse US resources “Analyzing the national security implications ofclimate change generally requites tracinga logic a from climate stessoto limate-linked event to societal stress o security concer anendeavor complicated by climate conditions beng intertwined in a complex of social politcal and biophysical conaitions Figute 1 Enumerating the lage numberofother important contributingfactorsis beyond the scope of this document but ilustrative examples include consumption paterns demographics ‘environmentaldegradation existing social and politcal conditions land-use changes emerging technologies governance andthe tendency for populations to concentrate in climate-vulnerable locations Changingclimate conditions in combination with other stressors almost certainly wll inezeasngly threaten nationalsecurity over the nextfw decades Figure 1 Schematic Links Between Climate Change and National Security aes f cee i ‘Other Biophysical Conditions eg sol degradation Human and Societal Svess eg foodduper ‘National Security Outcome eg stably Sexes Med Hom Conte onda Sas utehCe 20 Mayes ice alr nbot dion human and setseer ae hy dopedono gien pops Insae moreimportDanoOstones tse ‘Sos west arm and att cope respondrem or tecover ams cmate ned eres BeientificBaseling ‘TheIGdevelopclimate-sionc -instead findingsfrom outside Our Government-technicalagencies uch NASA NOAA-and-USGS ‘U S-seientifieinstitutionstheAcademy-ofSiences -We-alee-alilize informationand analysis many-otherparticularly “Commented MET NSC Commentthe purpose ‘ofthis 2013 chart to say that mate change primary ‘ause ofthe Natiool Security Outeame eg Insabli’ orcmate change one of manyfactors that exacerbate natty ‘Commented BJMEB WHLA CommentCut sections ‘ofthe testimony that dont decty adores the hearing tonic ‘Commented BIMES NSC Corwen For thepast 90 years fundingfrcimote research bythe federal £ goverment anprivate foundations hes welcomed Feseatch ndings that support climate alam Ay researc hat does not reinforcethis native hasbeen ‘fowned on ad grants to have not been renewed So ‘heinformation mentioned hee i hebbiased i toward alarm fore the colpseofthe SovietUnion n 1950 peerreviews iterature om the Sot bicandfrom ‘Wester sympathizers uniform touted thegreat of sociplanned economies A journals avontages ‘consensus of per reewed iterate hasnothingto do vith wath UNCLASSIFIED Figure 2 Global Temperature Anomaly by YearSince 1880 Ce ee Uh ssecosertort BL 61theet Ex mancadet tn 20Women ee aoe imal FGRRSESERREERERE RR ER Source NASA Gor nseay ron Se Stes Sure empire es TEMP 2 exited aes td nd eon puesage anbmen shen sempre ans oe Bathiacimateiunequivocllpandergoingolog-tem-vermingasestablsheddecades ofscentiiemeasurementsstipeindependentevidencefigure 2 Bightentheat sees lati a 2 toNASA’sGoddardinstituteforSpaceStdles-findingechoedothercounties meteorelogial aigencies—Bsreme hightemperatureeventincreasingacrossglobeasthedistibutionf peelureols Heeling Femperatures aseroverandmasees-particulary-near poesthasrepen shoud lobotaverag-anaceemporatareswil renenextsrerl decades-however ddtonalsemperaure increaseeicallydepend onthecumulative stespherie concentrations grenhotseosan-warmingconideraly-hgrthat stmosphere-oceontemperaturesintothefulare ‘Commented MEO NSC Comment The suace temperature data of Fig 2 isvery controversial that been ited with to reduce recorded temperatures of ‘aly yas and 0 increase temperatures of recent _ yearsin dere gve the appeaance of arming ‘worming Temperature recordsfor ual ostons unaffected by urban eat island bias show much less ‘wang Satelite measurements ofthe temperature ofthe lower atmosphere since about1860 also show much less warming Al modelsthot the atmosphere should exhibit more warming tha the setacenot ess ‘There hasbeen vrymedest warmingin fs and starts ‘since theend ofthe itl ee Ages about the yar 800 This was interrupted by coolingfrom about1940 10188 lescingto oninaus predictionof a ew ce ageTime Newsweek od other journals that arust as contidenly reiting urinterupted warming of ‘Commented BIMETH NSC Corenan Thisnot true Batre hightemperature records are not Increasing The hottest temperature recorded with ‘thermometers wos 1341 5 7 n Death Valley on July 10 1913 Fortemperatire cords not contaminated by uban eatingeffets ecord high temperatures were recoded during the Gust boul years ofthe 1830' ‘Commented BIMET2 NSC Comment No some ‘ocean volumes ae warming ond some are coling Muchofthe NorthAanas cooled And ocean warringor cooingare of de 0 1 Caless Commented eum S€ Comment Theoceans are strongly asc with an average surface pHof about 81 increased concenationsof CO2 shoulhave sgt reduced the ito aound 80 This is 8 completelytv changecompact to the natural fluctuations of ecean pH wth imeof day depth latitude et where pH can range kom 83 1075 To «allan average change ofpHrom 11080__ 2y ‘Commented B1MET4 NSC Comment Nobody sure what wl happen to temperatures over the next ‘several decades Greenhouse gases should cause sme ‘warming But the observed warming has been much lesthan modepredictions and consistentwith 1 C warming oles for doubling CO2concentrationin Ae aresphere This woud bean veal benefit ‘Commented BJME5 Previous version noted that computer models inate NSC coment Which ‘models ands ital some or most UNCLASSIFIED Risingtemperatures in-a-vast-mumberprocesses partiewlarlyin the-atmosphere freshwater m ocean ase permatrost-ancd-organisms comprisingthe compleity-complicates-adetailed-understandingofhew-these-myriod emperature- depondentand and-space butscientists ‘elucidatedan-important climate-linked phenomena including anc-beyond-temperature Gigate -Overtime ongoingtemperatureincreaseswil likely expose populationstoagreater _- commented BIMETEEsine NSEteComment Figure3 treaanosrtting computermode’on chit Basedacter dontwr Teyhave eeites hyaef aove anna ca uncharacterized fepredicted te pronounced cooing ofthe “ Sousofthe United States One oftherm Figure 3 Projected Trends in Selected Climate-Linked Phenomena 2050-2100 fener imate Mi as aAnei says s Dont i putyour Phenomenon Change Contdence moda owtmodelina ce race atiYour Globalmeon surfacetemperature € Global mean precipitation tial Globalmean sa level Aiea kecae Hosday and nights over land warmth frequency Cold daysand nights over andl warmth frequency tremehigh sea level incidence magrituide Heatwaves and warm spells overland requency duration Heavy precipitation events Drought intensity duration “Tropical cyclones in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific basin Gntensly fequeney Contrast between wet and dry regions ‘Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere Permatrost integrity ‘Storm tracks poleward shift ‘Wave heights in Artic and Southeen Oceans Upper ocean temperatures ‘Oceanaiifiation ‘Oceanic oxygencontent Mountain phenomena slope instability mass movement glacal lke outbursts ‘Animal and plant species dlstbution poleward and upward in aitude “Timing ofecological spring events eafng greening migration etc Coraldegradationand bleaching Source apa om tergovenmeni anon Cinate Change OPC WGIABS 2014 jects same tatIPCCs eaeol temperatureease nl xed °c6°and agesbetweenerent The conferstatement Fetes he quate assent feeseee Ines ofeven gh nscates very hgh gh conneddente mcm conc Phenomena wih o ceaver wih ssn regal aon Th Rc 2IS0 2100tmetame tobis gral ves thaon seytent windowsown sy Sraepost anon he ‘eof sto ow dea toh 4 io Bian a Son a wan ten mn oH EDUME a a4 HIGH HIGH @ wow a HIGH Ma en iat San wan 2 eH man 2H Conmented METT NSCConnTrewibo ——_ ortere cent Does hsto mean the outcome caudal be tat herearen taro espe ee UNCLASSIFIED ate-aThey-are-causey-by-thetare extreme-valuesofcerlain-meteorologicalsuel-ashigh-andlowtemperatures reduced ought thicedlallarat ifferentocationscompared torhistoricalany-of-which Over the last 10 has-deepened-isappreciationoftheextreme-weatherevents-onational sciencesuchevente-atea near-termaisithanassessed Forclasses-oFentrmencreasinoceutrence-wedstbution eventsingeographic locationand time-wilinereasingly-importantintermsof forharm-Mutiplethat arechustred-compounde -or morediorupivethataremorepowerful-We lso recognizethepotentialanalogousclimatlinkedextremebiosphereasa-mass economically suddenemergencedesimctiveSucevents inbutanealmost importantaean and-compounding onsocites when-asscssing heir potentialsubsiantial-harmpeople -Seientists-arepatticularlyinterestedin-understanding limate-linked whichthe ‘oceut-Although-ikely intensivemangemnt polieies‘occuring«trought-ratherthanclimatetheBowLofthe central-UnitedStates nonetheless illustrates theeconomicimpactsthatcanaccompany-anforescen conditions -Sincesufficientlycharacterized -many-delailsofthese-limatelinkediwesholds-includingindicatorspos ible overfuture UUmeframe-Potey ‘Very rapid die-offsimportantstichas-coralor insects ‘Commented BIMETB NSC Comment Tis statement is nonsense Mass c-ofs hve nothing todo wth the warmingsand coclings that we have experianced ovee the Holocene the past 12000 years ors since the ast ice age ended Most mass deals havebeen duet the introduction of eiseases to previously unexposes populations smallpox to ative American populations by Europeanotheexterminationofthe American hestoe byanAsian fungus Losses are patculaly Severiningwhere inroduces species cn ‘veralocal species hat have never faced ompetian Ts has noting to do with cate change ‘Commented BIMETS NSC Comment Tipping pointsisapropagandeslogan designed tighten ‘the sce ilterate They were a favorite of Al Gore's science advise Jim Hansen None ofthe bultes tippingpoints are probable and they often lat very fundamental lav ofpis forex ‘hat substanamountsoteheatare needed 19 ‘matic Both the West Alienmonsoon and the ‘antic meronverturingae crv by the fotation ofthe Earth and tepredominant solar heating of topical latitudes These are not going to change UNCLASsIFED and Glimatenkedeventsaredistuptivetowhendecly-oF substantiallyseaken thesocialpolitcaleconomicenvironmentalorinfrastruluralaystomethat Forde ndes-ahih-presentsthe r-ofcommitted greenhouseemis ions expect-tha-limatechange-will whileslso-creainghumanaSome-stresies to-ponticularwhile othersmayhaveimplications the-globafoodfigures Figure 4 Examples of Climate-Linked Stresses to Human and Societal Systems Diet impacts fom extreme ‘event such a droughts ‘ood fies and eons Increased species extnetion ‘snd redisbution and ‘populationreductions Loss of marine biatversty that Support humans globalas supply Risks hanstosuch foo nines nd products averse effects on key economic Sectors such insurance an tourer Decroated integrity ‘od reli ofinfastructure Negative repercussions on human heath inlding Injury seas and death Loss of teitory or infestracture to 0a level ise Decraated surfaceresource water nd ‘roundwater Supply and access Coastal impacts such 5 Moeding submergence “urges ond erosion Depressed crop yells td increases in ‘eld vray Shits in production zones fiber rope ‘ndoffelfod Deterioration or toss‘orshelter of housing Disruption of ‘ecological food webs changing or emerging ‘geographic domain saldhoe the thawing Artie ‘Change instribution of dseae-carrying ‘rgeneme Reduced waterquay from droughts rhe rafal Redstbuton of catch potentifor ah Srinvrtebrates Risks o food acces ‘utlzation storage ‘and pice stably Decreased energy ‘sytem integy ‘nd ely Dealingwork productivity especially ‘tom extreme heat Increased placement ‘ofpeople and changes inmigration pattems or degradation of esouree Seonsen relia hse ‘oreulture and pastoalism Increases in frequency range lgae ‘harmfuloroxy Though not ahsths hasts the mult of potent ress atcudnt or emerge om climate change imatechange-will-also produce-bencficalchanges somepopulationsexample glaciermelt lessen-waterstress-fornext bettor-underinereased-levelsconditionsThe evidenceto-datesuggests that-nel negativeeffectsoverwhelmpositivefromelimate changeformostofthe world however ‘Commented 81ME20 HA Comment Gut sections ofthe testiony that don clades the hearing tic ‘Commented BIME21 NSC Comment Whati the clation sourceofthis char iow climate change must be the fist examplein human history of “al win that lows no good Figure 4s junk science More ofthe main greenhouse 905 carbon doses evbstntaly increasing fod Production forestproductivity and land vegetation in general This is apparent not only om the massive increasesgain hanes around the wari ad the Ylé per ac but aso from satellt obsevations of lobalgreening due to the lative modest increases of Co2 that have occured over thepast ity yes UNCLASSIFIED National Security Impticati ‘of Climate Change Climate change will affect U S nationalsecurityinterests overthe next twenty years through multiple ‘concurrent and compounded pathways The following sectionsillustrate some significant national security concems but examples provided are illustrative rather than comprehensive Global Perturbations ‘No country will be immune totheeffectsof climate change overthe next 20 years but somewill be able to cope adapt or respond more effectively than others Most populationsare likely to encounter ‘multiple stresses across politcal social economic and human security domains fragite states in SubSaharan Africa the Middle East and Central and Southeast Asia are especially vulnerable Local problems could spilloverwith global consequences suchasthrough increasedhuman displacement naturalresource disputes commodityprice volatility orviolence Studiesof potential economic coats from climate change varyonsiderbl Most estimatesshow limited aggregate damage to the global economy over the next 20 years howevereconomic damage 10 some ations oF regions could be severe Past and anticipated extreme limae events may discourage investments in regions deemed especially vulnerable and insurance rates may rise well before actual adverse climate effects are felt Progress on development particularly in love-lyingcoastal areas may stall or recede A harsher climate alsowill stesor harm infrastructure not designed for such conditions especialy in urban selings Thofinancial burden ofadapting and responding to emergent climate hazards andcriseswhile expandingefforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions could reduce ‘moneyavailable for other investments Threats to humanhealthwil emerge or intensity from climate change Some groupsof people are especially susceptible to climatesensitive health hazardssuch as periodsofextreme heat Examples include young children and the elderly populations expetiencing social marginalization through poverty or migetion status andindividualsalready sulfeingadverse health conditions Water-bore diseases uch as diarthea are highly sensitive to climate conditions Long-term changes in climate could gradually shift the geographic range seasonal timing and transmission intensify ofinfectious diseases worldwide Health cate infrastructure and deliverysystemsae also likelyto belafeted Food securitywil almost certainly decrease in some regions The precise impact ofclimate change on agriculture production will differ by region and crop but damagesae tkely tobegreater forcountries located closer tothe equator Elevated overnight temperatures will put particularpressure on agriculturalproductivity Fisheriesproductivityi kely to decrease in some areas suchasEast Asa Livestock willbe increasingly vulnerable to period of extreme heat and drought ‘Commented BIME22 NSC Comment This testinory religiously assumes that ary cima change il ‘certainly bebad Bt this assumption is not based on Scence Economic models that aecourfor the bens ‘of modest warming which sal we are ket to get ‘rom inereased CO level and account fr the massive benefits of more CO to agicture and forestry show thatthe “ost of carbonis actualy negative mere CO2 ‘benefits the world until CO2 evel reat exced those toy ‘Commented BIMEZ3 NSC Comment Mere junk 2 science The prevalence of infectiousdiseases hs ie 1 do wit climate but san ssof pubic health onto of eseasevectors immunizationof the population ete Dutng the American Revelutionay Warfom 1776 to 1781 Congress appropriated Substantal sumsto buyquinine forthe Coninentl ‘yttat ime in the cool ral decades of he ile ‘ceAge malaria was a problem in Boston are even further north Sore 5000 people or more dein the yiow fever idee of 173 in Phiadephia The nt-vaciaton cutalreadycausieg much meve damage to publicheath than cate change ‘Commented BIMEZ4 NSC Comment Ths is more ronsnse Cbserations andtheories n are agreement show that anyglobal warring inthe 'wopcs wilbe minima and mest climate change wi take place nearer the poles UNCLASSIFIED ate changtects could undermine portantineratonal systems on which he United tates and its partners ate eiically dependent such asteade routes food and energysupplies the gla economy and domestic stability abroad Pooty designed adaptation and mitigation responses to climatechange could undermine ongtenm U S economic energy and security gols Ongoing climateseated hazards and the perepton of Wester responsibility may engender hostility towards the United States of other industrialized fountred Instability ‘Most if not al countries are unable to respondfully tothe risks posed byclimate-tinked hazards under present conditions With increased pressure from climate change existing social and political structures will come under greater strain whichcould deepen grievances and stoke tensions Impacts ‘woulddisproportionatelyfall on vulnerable populations such asyouth The consequences likely will be severe enough in someinstances to compelinternationalreaction includingfrom the United States ‘Countries with weakinstitutions low governmentallegitimacy or where the potential for conflict and political strife is already present will have increased risk ofinstability Cross-border displacement to neighboring poor countries may undermine regional stability Heightened Tensions over Natural Resources Water Decreases in water access quality oF reliability may increasethe risk of conflict between populations who share river basins oraquifers especiallyatthe subnational level Although wateris typicallya source of cooperation between countries extreme water scarcity orrapidly changing conditions could change this dynamic Tensions are especially enflamed when anupsteeamcountry buildsinfrastructure such as a dam without a water-sharing agreement with downstream counties Fisheries Disputes over ishing rights and accesso fsheries havebecommajor pointsof contention forcountries that relyheavily on fishing for fod orincome Ocean acidification and warming is ikely toredistribute marine ish populations benefiting some regions at the expenseofothers while global fisheries faceadditional pressuresfom overexplotation and declining ocean health Inensifyng coral bleaching wil harm reef ecosystemscrucialfr vast species of marineif Arable land Declines in land resources crucial to velihoods an sustenance are well-knowndriers offocaconfit n some eonsclimate changeeffects will worsen already degraded soil quality with concomitant effects onthe people who depend actly on tsproductivity Human Movement ‘An individual's decision to migrate depends on a variety of social and economic factors and there is litle evidence thatclimate change effects have ben the determining factor in these decisionsto date Nonetheless people are likely to perceive additional reasons toflee their homes because of ‘Commented B ME2S NSC Conment Yes theeie ‘rong ostothe “compenofthe USA ands affluentles whose prosperitywasbult on ineypensve aloble oss ues The Weld Bank refuses te france moder ecological fiendly lable and _fordable cal powerplants in Aieaor ather ess ‘oveloped parts of he word where people woud ke te enjoy someofthe samecomforts tht we do Instead they are supposed to rely onexpensive and _unsiobie wind and ole power ‘Commented B ME26 NSC Cormnent Thereno ‘evidence that coal bleachingi intensifying now or wi inthe future Corl ets hav Bleached and usually recovered tvougbout their eoutonry history ‘Commented BMEZ7 NSC Comment Tse ‘onsese People used to talk about the degraded ol ‘of mybrace nda Since eft ini in 1948 gain ‘production hasincensed by over a factor ofte and omloues to inerease Some af he many reason for ‘his good news are the use of cherries beter seed varieties beter copping methods and increases inarmospherc CO2 UNCLASSIFIED compounded climate change effect primarily duetotheloss ofaccess to critical resources In addition to movementwithin national borders—especialy to urban areas—many displaced persons will migrate Into neighboringcountries sometimes asa staging ground for subsequent onward movement towards countries with greater economic opportunities Many recviving nations will have neither the resources norinterest to hostthese migrants Increasinglyinhospitable conditions and losses of territory from sea level rise will likely spur some island nations particularly inthe tropical Pacific to consider relocating large segmentsofits population elsewhere Overthe nextfew decades the neteffects of climate ‘change on patternsof migration and statelessness could be dramatic perhaps unprecedented Humanitarian Crises ‘According to the World Bank an estimated twobillion people already live in fragile andconflictaffected areas ofthe world and by 2030 atleast half ofthe world’s poor will lve in these settings These populations are ata disproportionatehigher risk to climate-linked hazards While natural disasters have happened forall of human history extreme events amplified by climate change may pose newfound challenges particularly when compounded eventsoccur with greater frequency oF severity in the same area ‘The exposure and resilience of people and assets of those affected arecritical factors in how crises unfold As humanitarian emergencies persist the international community's capacity—or interest—to respond will be increasingly strained New Geostrategic Competitive Domains ‘The Arctic region is warmingtwice asfastasthe est ofthe globe and undergoing majorand rapid transformation Retreating sea ice creates new possibilitiesfor resource extraction tourism and Arctic fishing as well as new shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific although operating inthe Arctic will continue to prove difficult Disputes over natural resource extraction operationsor unresolved maritimelimits and boundary claims will likely increase asthe Arctic opens ‘Adverse Effects on Militaries Increasing sea-level rise flooding drought temperatures and extreme weather events will threaten military capabilities andfacilities on domestic and foreign territory including military bases and training ranges Operations and equipment willalsoneed tobe able towithstand harsher weather conditions Sea level rise andincreased frequency of some tropical cyclones and its associated impacts ‘on erosion will require significant levels of new surveying and mapping opers jonsto ensure naval traversability and access to ports Personnel may also be increasingly unprepared or trained for especially severe or novel conditions such as fightingpests or combattingwildfires UNCLASSIFIED Heightened Risk of Climate-Linked Surprises While climate models project continuouslong-term increases in temperature and oervariable scientists warn that sudden dramatic ciateshits are possible given the complexity of the system and analogsin the climate record The Bath's climat occasionally hasundergoneextremeshifts that zealchallenge oroverpower many species’ ability to adapt sometimesin as litle asa decade owo lange bodyof scientific evidenceindicates that Earth's systemsare beng driven by natural and ‘manmade forest extraordinarily high ates of change across the atmosphere biosphere cryospher oceans and soil For examplethe current rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide isthe highest in perhaps66 milion years and at levels not seen in at least 800 000 yeas Figur Figure 5 Carbon Dioxide Levels from 800 000 Years Ago to Present a t E50 2 3 2 411 ppm ‘apr 2019 ‘ ‘Probableappearance ofhomasopiens ——Dappenrance of 8 8 01950 a a ey Years Age Source Nana ceric ard AmospheiAdminiaton MOAN Pcodimsedts oeeonam ke cre samples boo calssnc 85s he in on Santas ‘le eect essenae Scents are working out theprecise degree to which the climate responds thermally to suchpulses of carbon dioxide but the resitant rate of temperature changei likely unprecedented in modern human Nistor Many scientists highlight the grovrng sk that abrupt impacts from climate change wil inerease overthe next several decadesand beyond The national security implications of such changes could ba severe 0 ‘Commented BIME2B NSC Comment igure Sonits ‘nis very misleading What doesnot showthat ring interlace the one we are fortunate ove in temperatures arevery stable Temperature instabes are pronounced during aacperiods not ‘warm periods Thefutations of CO2shown here are the effec of temperature changes nt thecase When temperature rise CO lvls bein to isea few centres later When teperatresfl CO2 levels fl few centre ater ven theei that CO2levels are highernow tan at anytime in thepast 6 milion years is correc and ‘hereiscompaling proxy evidence tat doesnot supports the Frthis some 4500 milion years od ver most ofthat ime CO2 levels have Been meosred in manythousands of ppm Pant ifeevlved a these much higher CO2levels and plants grow much better ‘when CO2levelsae several housand ppm nota puny 490 pp Pants ie fom CO starvation a ‘orbdow afaine evel which nas approaches150 ppm srultiple times during the glacal mam of ig 5 ‘Commented BIME29 NSC Cornment Theseare ‘ade-p iss of abrupt impacts No previous Interachas shownany abupt changes Abrupt changes occur whenvast ce sheets cover the northe UNCLASSIFIED Closing The IC'sroleis not to predict the future but rather toassess rsk and provide strategic warning Prom a national security perspective the disruption imparted byclimate change andits associated effects over 20 years dependscritically onatleast fous factors ‘ The degree to whichcarbon dioxide and othergreenhouse gases drive globaltemperature increases a large or small influence or something in between The degree to whichthe multiplicity of concurrent orsequential climate-linked hazards interact amplify or offset each other ‘ The degree to which the drivers of climate change pasticulaely greenhouse gas emissions will bbe addressed by people governments and industries The degree to which people's exposure and vulnerability to known and anticipated climatelinked hazards are reduced ‘Thefrst twofactors are scientific concernsand active areas of academic research people’s choicesin the present and future however dictate the magnitude ofthe last two The large range ofuncertainties ‘meansthat quantifying the appropriate timeframe for action is difficult complicated by the fact that responsestostresses will often require many years to bearfruit Absent extensive mitigating factors or ‘events we see few plausible future scenarioswhere significant possibly catastrophic—harm does not arise rom the compounded effects of imate change the Sate Departments Buren ofteligenee and Research produced his document andidnot continwith therestoftheinteligence conaninits production ‘Commented BIMESO NSC Comment This calbates ‘the testimony isnot a science-based assessment but advocacy forthe cate alarm etablsiment CO2 levels have been stedly increasingfor he past century At the same time standards of vinga ie ‘expectancy haveincrease especialy inthe lest ‘developed part ofthe word actu and foresty yds are steadily increasing de to the beneficial ‘ets of moreCOZ deaths fom exreme weather ‘eens steadily decreasing dueto timely warnings of entree weather beter buldng and zoning codes patcalar reason this sentence was added to the testimony Page 3 1 Commented BJME10 Barringer Jody M EOP OMB 6 3 2019 5 25 00 PM_ NSC Comment The surface temperature data ofFig is very controversial It has beenfiddled with to reduce recorded temperatures of early years and to increase temperatures of recent years in order to give the appearanceofalarming warming Temperature recordsforrural locations unaffected by urban heat island bias show much less warming Satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower atmospheresince about 1980 also show much less warming All models find thatthe atmosphere should exhibit more warming than the surface not less There has been very modest warming in fits and startssince the endoftheLittle Ice Ages aboutthe year 1800 This was interrupted by cooling from about 1940 to 1980 leading to ominous predictions of a new ice age Time Newsweek and otherjournals that arejust as confidently predicting uninterrupted warming from now on A long “pause” in warming began aboutthe year 2000 and the pause maystill be effect Page 3 2 Commented BJME13 Barringer Jody M EOP OMB 6 3 2019 5 27 00 PM _ Page 3 3 Commented BJME14 Barringer Jody M EOP OMB 6 3 2019 5 27 00 PM NSC Comment The oceans are strongly basic with an average surface pH of about 8 1 Increased concentrations of CO2 should have slightly reduced the pH to around 8 0 This is a completely trivial change compared to the natural fluctuations of ocean pH with time of day depth latitude etc where pH canrangefrom 8 3 to 7 5 To call an average change of pH from 8 1 to 8 0 “acidification” is propaganda designed to alarm the chemicallyliterate NSC Comment Nobodyis sure what will happen to temperatures over the next several decades Greenhouse gases should cause some warming But the observed warming has been much less than model predictions and consistent with 1 C warming orless for doubling CO2 concentrationsin the atmosphere This would be an overall benefit to society for example by extending growing seasons curtailing winter mortality