Date

Feb 10, 1984

Description

This interesting review of the South Asian nuclear problem starts by exploring the India-Pakistan nuclear dynamic. If Pakistan tested a weapon, India might resist following through on a weapons option, but might begin a series of tests. Both countries could covertly begin a weapons program. Despite speculation about an Indian preemptive strike against Pakistani nuclear installations, such an occurrence was unlikely because of the serious risks for India, not least the spread of "deadly radiation poisoning." While New Delhi had resisted internal pressures for weaponization, changes in the security environment could weaken resistance, for example, if relations with Beijing worsened or if Chinese-Soviet relations improved (which would make the Indians more worried about Moscow's reliability). The INR analyst believed that Washington had the most "leverage" with Pakistan because of the latter's dependence on U.S. supplies of conventional weapons. "Supplying conventional weapons to Pakistan can be a positive force against proliferation" because they "can give Pakistan sufficient confidence in its own security that it would find the nuclear option less attractive and unnecessary." This may have been the basis of State Department thinking that not meeting Pakistani desiderata on such issues as the F-16 would be a blow to nuclear non-proliferation policy. The challenge, however, was to not over-arm Pakistan because that could threaten Indian security and "increase the danger of nuclear proliferation in South Asia."

Source

Department of State FOIA release, copy courtesy of Jeffrey Richelson

Document published in following posting(s):

New Documents Spotlight Reagan-era Tensions over Pakistani Nuclear Program

Apr 27, 2012